Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
In years past I have done my best to sort thru the RBs and try and implement a grading system which many of you are familiar with. I have thought about it for a long long long time this offseason and I am going to scrap that whole idea for 2009 and here is why. It just might be a complete waste of time. The situation has changed and it’s not an overreaction to just 1 year but we are witnessing a trend right now in the NFL that I think is going to dominate for years to come.
Now part of it has to do with the fact that more and more teams are using a 2 back system, and even last year DWill finishes #1 and he was mired in a 2 back system much of the year even though he exploded when it was just him. Rather than fight it, embrace it. There are several reasons why teams are doing this but in particular I want to point to 1 reason above all others...TALENT!!!
One of the biggest IMO and its something a good friend pointed out to me a few years ago was that there has never been this much talent at RB. And you know what…he’s absolutely right. Dallas has 3 backs, Baltimore has 3 backs too, the NYJets look like they might have a 3 back monster, and there are teams with amazing 1-2 punches like Carolina, and then you have teams that have back up RBs with top10 seasons under their belts like Earnest Graham in Tampa Bay and Chester Taylor in Minnesota.
Look at the 2008 class that was drizzled with talent that never really got going last year like Rashard Mendehall, Felix Jones, Ray Rice…would it really surprise you all if all 3 of them finished top20 or better this year? The point I am bringing up is there is so much talent in the middle rounds at RB this year and while they can’t all be good I have no problem waiting for RBs this year. And if you play in a best ball format you can almost wait around like you do on QBs in leagues where you do have to fill out the lineups.
The 1st thing I am going to do is go thru the top10 RBs from a year ago. Almost every year roughly 50% of the RBs from the year before fall out of the top10. Some are easy to spot and some are tougher to figure out.
Next I will go round by round and highlight what I think is value and present the upside and downside of those picks with an emphasis on things like…”You can get so and so two rounds later so why reach for him here”…things like that. I jaw with a good friend who you all know very well in here and we like to play the game of who I can get several rounds later so why take such and such here. (We have no life, I realize that)
Top10 from last year(PPR) and the likelihood they repeat: Now remember that about 50% drop out every year.
1.DeAngelo Williams: Look don’t get me wrong, I really love the guy and felt he was a possible LT2 in the making when he first arrived from Memphis. Small school guy like Tomlinson who went to TCU and put up gawdy numbers…last year was proof he has the goods. But you cannot imagine that Carolina will be able to run it as many times as they did last year. I really like DWill but I might have to admit he is a possible candidate for finishing out of the top10.
2. Matt Forte: OL is a concern but the addition of Jay Cutler is absolutely going to help this kid. I love Forte and believe he is one of the safer picks in the top10. He might not break 50 catches again this year but I believe he has what it takes to continue a run in the top10. I have a tough time seeing the downside in this guy. Risk? Sure, he did all that as a rookie and he could come down to Earth a bit in year 2…all true but I believe he gives Chicago an identity and they are destined for big things this year. Lovie and Angelo are trying to get back to the SB quickly and Forte will be a big part of it. He also has almost no one stealing touches from him which is rare.
3. Maurice Jones Drew: A slight increase in carries and continued success out of the backfield make him an easy top10 pick. I don’t like the value in taking him at #2 right now but I can see why so many are high on him. Not much pushing him in Jax but I really don’t like their offense much, not impressed with the OL either. Could struggle at times and I still believe that little frame although very thick could get him in trouble at some point.
4. Michael Turner: I don’t project injuries but the track history for RBs that carry it as many times as Turner did last year are not good. Add in that he is completely 1 dimensional and I think you have a candidate that could easily take a step back. He will be on a good offense however. I just have a bad feeling abut Turner this season but maybe I am wrong.
5. LaDainian Tomlinson: Bad toe, hurt in other places, shell of what he once was, and he finished what, 23rd last year? Oh, no he actually finished 5th. I can’t wait to watch him silence the critics this year and easily coast into the top5 for the 7th time in his career. His worst finish was 7th in his career. Where is the safe pick in the top5? You’re looking at it, all you can eat baby.
6. Thomas Jones: judging by where he is drafted right now which we will talk about later, he definitely is drawing criticism and most believe he will finish out of the top10. The QB situation is downright scary. I tend to side with the naysayers to a degree.
7. Steve Slaton: The thing that keeps him in the mix for top 10 IMO is he has an awful nice passing attack to take pressure of him running the ball. If you are a defense the first thing you do is try and stop Andre Johnson, then Owen Daniels, let’s face it…Slaton is never going to see an 8 man front, rarely a 7 man front with the passing game in place there. I am not a huge Slaton fan going into year 2 and think he could easily finish out of the top10 but he does play on a strong offense right now.
8. Brian Westbrook: Weeks 3,4,6, and 7(bye) made it tough early in the season for many owners. Weeks 10, 11, 12, 15, and 17 were nothing to write home about either…yet he finished 8th last year in PPR leagues. Gotta believe he will be healthier this year and perhaps a breather once in awhile will serve him well. This guy is going in the 2nd rounds of a lot of drafts. I don’t see the downside here as long as you grab McCoy at a reasonable place which is likely in rounds 9-10 or later in many drafts. Not a lot of insurance required for a guy that has had top5 seasons.
9. Adrian Peterson: Has all the tools, skills, and a possible real QB under center on the way…nothing short of the #1 pick for this guy, good as gold.
10. Chris Johnson: Fatdale is trying to become Slimdale and I believe the Titans will not be running away with things this year. I love Johnson and his speed but I think owners taking him in the top5 might be in for a rude awakening this year. I loved the guys as a rookie and had him in every league…but that was when I could get him in rookie drafts for the 1.05 or later in dynasty and a 4th-6th round pick in most redrafts leagues…now he costs way too much for me to take him in the high 1st round.
11. Clinton Portis: 3 points shy of the top10 last season and a regular year in and year out. I am going to talk about him later but I like where you can get him vs what others cost and also what Portis will allow you to do for the rest of the draft. To me he offers a lot of flexibility and if the argument is made that MJD is worth the #2 because you know he won’t finish worse than the top10…then what is the case for Portis at about 7 or 8 in most redrafts this year? If you anchor down with him as your #1 than you can go so many directions and come back to RB in about round 5 and still come away very strong.
Candidates to drop form the top10 IMHO…Michael Turner, Thomas Jones, DWill, CJ3, and Slaton
Almost a lock to remain in the top10…LT, ADP, Portis, Forte, Westbrook, MJD
You can disagree with any or all of this but there is little dispute that the top10 changes by about 50% year in and year out. Most of the folks I kicked out of the top are likely to be rookies or 1st timers in the 10 with Forte being the exception but he also could stumble in year 2 although he has a big upgrade on offense at the QB position.
Next I am going to go round by round according to ADP from FBG and other sites and look for value as well as land mines.
Round 1:
Value:
1.07 LaDainian Tomlinson: Look at it this way. You can get a guy that has more top7 finishes on his resume than almost anyone we have ever covered. He is not completely worn down and I think while he has had to fight thru some injuries that most of the team is still in tact and that with Merriman coming back the defense will set up a few more easy scores for the offense. If you are really worried simply grab Sproles in about the 6th or 7th round for insurance and keep moving. I believe LT will still rack up at least 1,500-1750 total yards and likely double digit TDs which makes him an easy top5 candidate.
1.12 Brian Westbrook: While others shy away this is more like Google becoming a bargain after it slips 100-200 points. Again, the back up can be bought pretty cheap and I think Westbrook will enable some owners to take him as the anchor and then fill up on some of the bargains in later rounds. He had a subpar year last year and still finished #8.
No value:
1.04 Michael Turner: 1 dimensional as he had only 6 receptions last year. Stephen Davis ring a bell to anyone? I just have a gut feeling about Turner and it isn’t good. I think Norwood will be a steal for some owners and I also believe if you do gamble and take Turner that you absolutely must grab Norwood and do it a round or two before you believe you need to…especially if MOP is in your league.
1.05 Steven Jackson: On a ppg basis this guy is up there but he is always injured. I said it when he came out of college that his style and wanting to punish defenders coupled with playing on that concrete surface indoors is going to lead to injuries. So far I have been proven right. I guess I am just sour grapes as I want to see this guy be a bargain at the tail end of the 1st round but it never happens. Buyer beware.
2nd round
Value:
2.09 Marion Barber III: I like him much better in the 2nd than I did in the 1st last year. I might like him even more in the 3rd but he will split time with Felix, however I don’t see the Dallas Cowboys airing it out all the time and think there will plenty of opps for Barber to grind some ground game out for Dallas. He’s not as big a bargain as others but I like MB III as an RB2 for folks that already got ADP, Forte, only going to make them stronger on the gorund.
2.11 Clinton Portis: Just wow is all I can say. Grab him anywhere you can in the 2nd round after you already grabbed a guy like Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, if you take this guy as your RB1 and pair him with something like a Fitz/Welker, or Moss/Jennings, or AJ/Bowe…you can have a lethal WR1/2 combo and still land a RB that could land top5. Now people are dogging the Skins but I see it completely different. Year 2 for Zorn and I think the OL will be better actually as they unloaded some perennial injury types. Also, let’s look at the schedule outside of the NFC East.
After they clash with New York week 1, they have 3 easy games against St Louis, @Det, TB…nothing wrong with getting easy games early in the season as it helps gain leverage should you want to trade a guy. They have home games that include St Louis, TB, KC, Denver, NO, and road games like @Det and @Oak…the schedule is not a total crème puff but it looks easier than in years past. You cannot go wrong with Portis in your line up and the back up, Betts is going in about the 13th round. If you have not read Jeff Pasquino’s guide to drafting I will mention one of his stronger pieces of advice that I have incorporated. Grab the back up for your RB1 in about round 10-12 so you don’t worry about them falling onto another person’s roster. It’s peace of mind and I support it.
So Portis offers the ability to get a top10 RB without paying the price, and he has a cheap back up, and he gives you the ability to not address the RB spot again until much later in the draft so you can load up on WR/TE/top5QB to build a powerhouse. I was torched 2 seasons ago for downplaying Portis but I felt what you got for the price was not a difference maker but this year I feel much differently based on where I can get him and where I feel he will end up.
No value:
2.08 Reggie Bush: No reason to waste a pick in here on him when he never can finish the season and really is more of a catch guy than a run guy. I much prefer the other guy a couple rounds later which we will get to.
3rd round
Value:
3.06 Ronnie Brown: I doubt you can get him at this spot when the actual drafts roll around but I have been screaming about this guy’s value all summer. I have talked about $150 million that Miami has spent on their OL…money doesn’t equal success but Parcells has built a very strong OL. The middle of their OL was the weakness and they brought in the Center form Oakland, Jake Grove. While the schedule is downright brutal I expect Brown to see more touches and will likely hit the 300 mark at least for total touches which I think could land him knockin’ on the top10-12 door. I think he offers a lot of value and if you went a different way early you can fall back on a guy like this and be fine. He will make an incredible RB2 for some teams.
Little value:
3.11 Kevin Smith: Rookie likely under center, a bad OL, not much defense to set up some short fields for him…I don’t see the upside here for the moment. I like almost any and all WR that would be an alternate at this point or a topTE, or a topQB here…Smith isn’t going to propel anyone into the playoffs and I think there is very little value here if any.
4th round: I like a lot of them in this round
Value:
4.03 Pierre Thomas: Again, why reach for Bush when you can get this guy 2 rounds later? The Saints are a high octane offense and this guy has shown that he can run and catch the ball when they call his number. In 2 years he ahs 181 carries for a 4.8 ypc avg and 10 TDs in those 180 carries. Do you see the potential here even if he is a TD machine and not everything else? And he has 48 receptions too over the past 2 years. If he were to get 240 carries which isn’t out of the question, and let’s say 40 receptions too…he would have to be a lock for over 1,200+ total yds and at least double digit TDs…where does that put him on your rankings? Bargain in the 4th round although word is getting out on this guy.
4.10 Knowshon Moreno: I paid a lot more than the 4.10 for him earlier this summer. The guy is going to be asked to do a lot in this offense. He actually has a decent OL in front of him but unfortunately the Cutler to Marshall combo that keeps defenses very honest has been broken up. I still believe Moreno has a strong chance to be the #1 rookie in FF this year. That could land him in the top10-12 very easily. He won’t go this late in the draft again next year, I can almost be certain of that. Unless he is injured all signs point to him having a pretty big rookie year.
4.11 Thomas Jones: Say what you want, and I am not thinking huge expectations here with the rookie at QB but the Jets have a pretty good OL, a defense that will be much improved, and I believe Jones will lose some of his TDs but I still expect him to carry the load here. 1,200 total yds and 6-7 TDs should make him a very serviceable RB2.
Little to no value:
4.01 Marshawn Lynch: Suspended to start the season and one of the most putrid OL assembled in quite some time. Buffalo is going to have a hard time running the ball this year. I don’t expect Lynch to do well and next year he will likely be a bargain but this year I would steer clear of him.
4.03 Ryan Grant: Bad OL, and an offense that would much rather throw the football then run it. I expect the pack to have to score 24-30 in order to win most games which sometimes is good for RBs but Grant doesn’t have the skills IMHO to be topflight RB in the NFL or in FF really.
5th round
Value:
5.09 Larry Johnson: I sure haven’t heard any trade rumors or cuts lately when it comes to LJ. He hasn’t been seen in as many South Beach clubs this off season. Here is a guy that when healthy and provided he can get a hole or two once or twice a game, this guy can really make a defense pay for mistakes. He has been a top3 RB in FF a couple times. It’s insane how late this guy is going. He is only entering his 7th NFL season, and he has had only had over 300 carries twice in his career including 416 in 2006. He will turn 30 in November but I believe he still has a year or two left where he can perform at a high level. 4.5 ypc last year and he was in Herm Edwards dog house plenty the past 2 years. Maybe he deserved to be there but now we see a new coach and LJ will have a clean slate. I look for big things form him and a complete bargain at the tail end of the 5th round.
Just some thoughts with the later 1st round slots.
1.08-Randy Moss
2.05-Clinton Portis
3.08-Jason Witten or Dwayne Bowe…ADP has them there although I see Bowe routinely go right on the 2/3 turn.
4.04-Knowshon Moreno
5.08-Larry Johnson
You could land some pretty meaty RBs without trying too hard. I could even get behind something like taking WRs with the 1st 2 or 3 picks and then taking RBs in the next 3-4 rounds.
6th round
Value:
6.08 Willie Parker: This is only value if you go and get Mendenhall the next round. I believe locking up a starting RB spot however with the 6th and 7th round picks might be a bargain. You could even squeeze Mendenhall out in the 8th if you want to gamble. I’m not going to talk up Parker but you have to assume that there will be not be a total 50/50 split between the RB1/2 on this team so why not take both and roll with whatever happens? This is a better RB3 plan with the idea that one of the 2 will make a serviceable RB2.
7th round
Value:
7.06 Cedric Benson: Again for those that wait too long at RB he could make a decent selection here. The OL is a mess in Cinci though and I think they will be taught to pass block over run block as that is the strength of the Bengals if there is one. Many weeks Benson will be a non factor but you aren’t spending much with a 7th round pick here.
7.11 Ray Rice: Love the spot for him. This is another one of those combos where you can get Rice in round 7 and then maybe grab McGahee in the 8th. You lock up a RB slot on your team and you likely have the starter between the 2 of them. McClain is being moved to FB and I expect a big decrease in his touches. Also, if Derrick Mason really is retired I look for more balls out of the backfield for Lil Ray. I do not believe Ray Rice will ever be the 30 carry back he was at times in college but there is no reason he cannot be a good solid RB2 and contributor in a 2 back system.
8th round
Value:
8.08 Felix Jones: I am surprised he is going this late. I look for the Boys to run a lot this season and Jones is going to be involved in this offense. I look for at least 12-15 touches weekly from him whether it is thru the air or on the ground. In fact with Owens leaving I expect even more catches for the RBs. Jones will have some really big games this year, but it will be hard to know exactly when those will be.
No value:
8.02 Julius Jones: I know people are going to say how can you go wrong with a possible starter in the 8th round? Because there are better choices in better offenses and also better alternatives to JJ at this point in the draft. I don’t see the need for this guy on your roster. Let someone else enjoy the Seattle ground game this season.
9th round
Value:
9.04 Chester Taylor: Should be grabbed in the 7th or 8th by the ADP owner.
9.07 Darren Sproles: A small price to pay to ensure LT, better grab him in the 7th or 8th to be safe.
9.09 Slimdale White: I actually like him at this point in the draft. Last year he had 700+ on the ground and 15 TDs to boot. I think he is still a candidate for 10+ TDs but he has slimmed down this off season and that might provide a bigger burst and a few more longer runs although he broke an 80 yarder last year. Don’t discount this guy completely when you are drafting. He will still see most of the goal line carries.
10th round
Value:
10.07 Rashard Mendenhall: Wouldn’t wait to get him after you grab Willie Parker. Was taken in the 1st round and you can believe that they want to see what they have here. Did look terrible although to me in his limited touches…but that could change easily this year.
11th round
Value:
11.06 Jerious Norwood : Did this guy really go in the 3rd/4th round 2 years ago? I think he is armed robbery at this point in the draft. He will have a few head turning big plays this year. Is there any reason he should not be lined up in the slot with Roddy White andMicahel Jenkins on the ends, Gonzo at TE, Turner in the backfield…who exactly would cover Norwood for opposing defenses? A Lnebacker? Please, he would throttle past that guy all day long. I’m just saying that this guy is going to find his way on the field, he has to.
11.07 Fred Taylor: Yes he is value at this point. I don’t expect a lot from him but I do expect him to take over the Sammy Morris role on this team. He might even see double digit TDs on the ground although I would not count on it. This was one of the major RBs in his heyday but that was a long time ago. He didn’t just turn 30…he is 33 already, he hasn’t had double digit TDs since the year 2000!!! He hasn’t played a full 16 games since 2003. We’ll see what he does and it sure isn’t a bad pick if you think he might pop 1,000 yds and 10 TDs at this stage of the draft…in fact that would be unreal value.
11.10 Earnest Graham: 2 seasons ago on a limited schedule and was able in 10 games to amass 1,200 total yds, 49 receptions, and 10 TDs. I don’t think Ward is a great deal in the 4th or 5th round when you have this guy in the wings and can grab him for only a late 11th round pick. He will out produce his draft spot for sure.
12th round and beyond
Value:
12.06 LeSean McCoy: A must for Westbrook owners, and a bargain for the kind of output you can get out of Westbrook. Cheap insurance IMHO.
12.10 Laurence Maroney: 12th round gamble I can live with.
13.02 Jamaal Charles: Great cheap insurance for Larry Johnson.
14.01 Ladell Betts: Great cheap insurance for Clinton Portis.
I haven’t really sat down and examined WR but it seems clear to me that there are about 5 WRs give or take that are on a different level skill wise and skill set than many of the others. These super elite WRs to me almost merit taking 2 of them early and then going to work on RBs as once you get past these super elite WRs there really isn’t much difference at WR for me.
I don’t have all the answers and I am probably dead wrong on some of these evaluations but I have thought about this for a long time this off season and I really land at this point just about every time. I have never seen such talent at RB beyond the starters. And we know there will be some injuries. Someone is going to get mighty lucky by taking Felix Jones that by passed on MB III. That is more of an example than the rule.
Please share some thoughts and feel free to ask questions.
Now part of it has to do with the fact that more and more teams are using a 2 back system, and even last year DWill finishes #1 and he was mired in a 2 back system much of the year even though he exploded when it was just him. Rather than fight it, embrace it. There are several reasons why teams are doing this but in particular I want to point to 1 reason above all others...TALENT!!!
One of the biggest IMO and its something a good friend pointed out to me a few years ago was that there has never been this much talent at RB. And you know what…he’s absolutely right. Dallas has 3 backs, Baltimore has 3 backs too, the NYJets look like they might have a 3 back monster, and there are teams with amazing 1-2 punches like Carolina, and then you have teams that have back up RBs with top10 seasons under their belts like Earnest Graham in Tampa Bay and Chester Taylor in Minnesota.
Look at the 2008 class that was drizzled with talent that never really got going last year like Rashard Mendehall, Felix Jones, Ray Rice…would it really surprise you all if all 3 of them finished top20 or better this year? The point I am bringing up is there is so much talent in the middle rounds at RB this year and while they can’t all be good I have no problem waiting for RBs this year. And if you play in a best ball format you can almost wait around like you do on QBs in leagues where you do have to fill out the lineups.
The 1st thing I am going to do is go thru the top10 RBs from a year ago. Almost every year roughly 50% of the RBs from the year before fall out of the top10. Some are easy to spot and some are tougher to figure out.
Next I will go round by round and highlight what I think is value and present the upside and downside of those picks with an emphasis on things like…”You can get so and so two rounds later so why reach for him here”…things like that. I jaw with a good friend who you all know very well in here and we like to play the game of who I can get several rounds later so why take such and such here. (We have no life, I realize that)
Top10 from last year(PPR) and the likelihood they repeat: Now remember that about 50% drop out every year.
1.DeAngelo Williams: Look don’t get me wrong, I really love the guy and felt he was a possible LT2 in the making when he first arrived from Memphis. Small school guy like Tomlinson who went to TCU and put up gawdy numbers…last year was proof he has the goods. But you cannot imagine that Carolina will be able to run it as many times as they did last year. I really like DWill but I might have to admit he is a possible candidate for finishing out of the top10.
2. Matt Forte: OL is a concern but the addition of Jay Cutler is absolutely going to help this kid. I love Forte and believe he is one of the safer picks in the top10. He might not break 50 catches again this year but I believe he has what it takes to continue a run in the top10. I have a tough time seeing the downside in this guy. Risk? Sure, he did all that as a rookie and he could come down to Earth a bit in year 2…all true but I believe he gives Chicago an identity and they are destined for big things this year. Lovie and Angelo are trying to get back to the SB quickly and Forte will be a big part of it. He also has almost no one stealing touches from him which is rare.
3. Maurice Jones Drew: A slight increase in carries and continued success out of the backfield make him an easy top10 pick. I don’t like the value in taking him at #2 right now but I can see why so many are high on him. Not much pushing him in Jax but I really don’t like their offense much, not impressed with the OL either. Could struggle at times and I still believe that little frame although very thick could get him in trouble at some point.
4. Michael Turner: I don’t project injuries but the track history for RBs that carry it as many times as Turner did last year are not good. Add in that he is completely 1 dimensional and I think you have a candidate that could easily take a step back. He will be on a good offense however. I just have a bad feeling abut Turner this season but maybe I am wrong.
5. LaDainian Tomlinson: Bad toe, hurt in other places, shell of what he once was, and he finished what, 23rd last year? Oh, no he actually finished 5th. I can’t wait to watch him silence the critics this year and easily coast into the top5 for the 7th time in his career. His worst finish was 7th in his career. Where is the safe pick in the top5? You’re looking at it, all you can eat baby.
6. Thomas Jones: judging by where he is drafted right now which we will talk about later, he definitely is drawing criticism and most believe he will finish out of the top10. The QB situation is downright scary. I tend to side with the naysayers to a degree.
7. Steve Slaton: The thing that keeps him in the mix for top 10 IMO is he has an awful nice passing attack to take pressure of him running the ball. If you are a defense the first thing you do is try and stop Andre Johnson, then Owen Daniels, let’s face it…Slaton is never going to see an 8 man front, rarely a 7 man front with the passing game in place there. I am not a huge Slaton fan going into year 2 and think he could easily finish out of the top10 but he does play on a strong offense right now.
8. Brian Westbrook: Weeks 3,4,6, and 7(bye) made it tough early in the season for many owners. Weeks 10, 11, 12, 15, and 17 were nothing to write home about either…yet he finished 8th last year in PPR leagues. Gotta believe he will be healthier this year and perhaps a breather once in awhile will serve him well. This guy is going in the 2nd rounds of a lot of drafts. I don’t see the downside here as long as you grab McCoy at a reasonable place which is likely in rounds 9-10 or later in many drafts. Not a lot of insurance required for a guy that has had top5 seasons.
9. Adrian Peterson: Has all the tools, skills, and a possible real QB under center on the way…nothing short of the #1 pick for this guy, good as gold.
10. Chris Johnson: Fatdale is trying to become Slimdale and I believe the Titans will not be running away with things this year. I love Johnson and his speed but I think owners taking him in the top5 might be in for a rude awakening this year. I loved the guys as a rookie and had him in every league…but that was when I could get him in rookie drafts for the 1.05 or later in dynasty and a 4th-6th round pick in most redrafts leagues…now he costs way too much for me to take him in the high 1st round.
11. Clinton Portis: 3 points shy of the top10 last season and a regular year in and year out. I am going to talk about him later but I like where you can get him vs what others cost and also what Portis will allow you to do for the rest of the draft. To me he offers a lot of flexibility and if the argument is made that MJD is worth the #2 because you know he won’t finish worse than the top10…then what is the case for Portis at about 7 or 8 in most redrafts this year? If you anchor down with him as your #1 than you can go so many directions and come back to RB in about round 5 and still come away very strong.
Candidates to drop form the top10 IMHO…Michael Turner, Thomas Jones, DWill, CJ3, and Slaton
Almost a lock to remain in the top10…LT, ADP, Portis, Forte, Westbrook, MJD
You can disagree with any or all of this but there is little dispute that the top10 changes by about 50% year in and year out. Most of the folks I kicked out of the top are likely to be rookies or 1st timers in the 10 with Forte being the exception but he also could stumble in year 2 although he has a big upgrade on offense at the QB position.
Next I am going to go round by round according to ADP from FBG and other sites and look for value as well as land mines.
Round 1:
Value:
1.07 LaDainian Tomlinson: Look at it this way. You can get a guy that has more top7 finishes on his resume than almost anyone we have ever covered. He is not completely worn down and I think while he has had to fight thru some injuries that most of the team is still in tact and that with Merriman coming back the defense will set up a few more easy scores for the offense. If you are really worried simply grab Sproles in about the 6th or 7th round for insurance and keep moving. I believe LT will still rack up at least 1,500-1750 total yards and likely double digit TDs which makes him an easy top5 candidate.
1.12 Brian Westbrook: While others shy away this is more like Google becoming a bargain after it slips 100-200 points. Again, the back up can be bought pretty cheap and I think Westbrook will enable some owners to take him as the anchor and then fill up on some of the bargains in later rounds. He had a subpar year last year and still finished #8.
No value:
1.04 Michael Turner: 1 dimensional as he had only 6 receptions last year. Stephen Davis ring a bell to anyone? I just have a gut feeling about Turner and it isn’t good. I think Norwood will be a steal for some owners and I also believe if you do gamble and take Turner that you absolutely must grab Norwood and do it a round or two before you believe you need to…especially if MOP is in your league.
1.05 Steven Jackson: On a ppg basis this guy is up there but he is always injured. I said it when he came out of college that his style and wanting to punish defenders coupled with playing on that concrete surface indoors is going to lead to injuries. So far I have been proven right. I guess I am just sour grapes as I want to see this guy be a bargain at the tail end of the 1st round but it never happens. Buyer beware.
2nd round
Value:
2.09 Marion Barber III: I like him much better in the 2nd than I did in the 1st last year. I might like him even more in the 3rd but he will split time with Felix, however I don’t see the Dallas Cowboys airing it out all the time and think there will plenty of opps for Barber to grind some ground game out for Dallas. He’s not as big a bargain as others but I like MB III as an RB2 for folks that already got ADP, Forte, only going to make them stronger on the gorund.
2.11 Clinton Portis: Just wow is all I can say. Grab him anywhere you can in the 2nd round after you already grabbed a guy like Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, if you take this guy as your RB1 and pair him with something like a Fitz/Welker, or Moss/Jennings, or AJ/Bowe…you can have a lethal WR1/2 combo and still land a RB that could land top5. Now people are dogging the Skins but I see it completely different. Year 2 for Zorn and I think the OL will be better actually as they unloaded some perennial injury types. Also, let’s look at the schedule outside of the NFC East.
After they clash with New York week 1, they have 3 easy games against St Louis, @Det, TB…nothing wrong with getting easy games early in the season as it helps gain leverage should you want to trade a guy. They have home games that include St Louis, TB, KC, Denver, NO, and road games like @Det and @Oak…the schedule is not a total crème puff but it looks easier than in years past. You cannot go wrong with Portis in your line up and the back up, Betts is going in about the 13th round. If you have not read Jeff Pasquino’s guide to drafting I will mention one of his stronger pieces of advice that I have incorporated. Grab the back up for your RB1 in about round 10-12 so you don’t worry about them falling onto another person’s roster. It’s peace of mind and I support it.
So Portis offers the ability to get a top10 RB without paying the price, and he has a cheap back up, and he gives you the ability to not address the RB spot again until much later in the draft so you can load up on WR/TE/top5QB to build a powerhouse. I was torched 2 seasons ago for downplaying Portis but I felt what you got for the price was not a difference maker but this year I feel much differently based on where I can get him and where I feel he will end up.
No value:
2.08 Reggie Bush: No reason to waste a pick in here on him when he never can finish the season and really is more of a catch guy than a run guy. I much prefer the other guy a couple rounds later which we will get to.
3rd round
Value:
3.06 Ronnie Brown: I doubt you can get him at this spot when the actual drafts roll around but I have been screaming about this guy’s value all summer. I have talked about $150 million that Miami has spent on their OL…money doesn’t equal success but Parcells has built a very strong OL. The middle of their OL was the weakness and they brought in the Center form Oakland, Jake Grove. While the schedule is downright brutal I expect Brown to see more touches and will likely hit the 300 mark at least for total touches which I think could land him knockin’ on the top10-12 door. I think he offers a lot of value and if you went a different way early you can fall back on a guy like this and be fine. He will make an incredible RB2 for some teams.
Little value:
3.11 Kevin Smith: Rookie likely under center, a bad OL, not much defense to set up some short fields for him…I don’t see the upside here for the moment. I like almost any and all WR that would be an alternate at this point or a topTE, or a topQB here…Smith isn’t going to propel anyone into the playoffs and I think there is very little value here if any.
4th round: I like a lot of them in this round
Value:
4.03 Pierre Thomas: Again, why reach for Bush when you can get this guy 2 rounds later? The Saints are a high octane offense and this guy has shown that he can run and catch the ball when they call his number. In 2 years he ahs 181 carries for a 4.8 ypc avg and 10 TDs in those 180 carries. Do you see the potential here even if he is a TD machine and not everything else? And he has 48 receptions too over the past 2 years. If he were to get 240 carries which isn’t out of the question, and let’s say 40 receptions too…he would have to be a lock for over 1,200+ total yds and at least double digit TDs…where does that put him on your rankings? Bargain in the 4th round although word is getting out on this guy.
4.10 Knowshon Moreno: I paid a lot more than the 4.10 for him earlier this summer. The guy is going to be asked to do a lot in this offense. He actually has a decent OL in front of him but unfortunately the Cutler to Marshall combo that keeps defenses very honest has been broken up. I still believe Moreno has a strong chance to be the #1 rookie in FF this year. That could land him in the top10-12 very easily. He won’t go this late in the draft again next year, I can almost be certain of that. Unless he is injured all signs point to him having a pretty big rookie year.
4.11 Thomas Jones: Say what you want, and I am not thinking huge expectations here with the rookie at QB but the Jets have a pretty good OL, a defense that will be much improved, and I believe Jones will lose some of his TDs but I still expect him to carry the load here. 1,200 total yds and 6-7 TDs should make him a very serviceable RB2.
Little to no value:
4.01 Marshawn Lynch: Suspended to start the season and one of the most putrid OL assembled in quite some time. Buffalo is going to have a hard time running the ball this year. I don’t expect Lynch to do well and next year he will likely be a bargain but this year I would steer clear of him.
4.03 Ryan Grant: Bad OL, and an offense that would much rather throw the football then run it. I expect the pack to have to score 24-30 in order to win most games which sometimes is good for RBs but Grant doesn’t have the skills IMHO to be topflight RB in the NFL or in FF really.
5th round
Value:
5.09 Larry Johnson: I sure haven’t heard any trade rumors or cuts lately when it comes to LJ. He hasn’t been seen in as many South Beach clubs this off season. Here is a guy that when healthy and provided he can get a hole or two once or twice a game, this guy can really make a defense pay for mistakes. He has been a top3 RB in FF a couple times. It’s insane how late this guy is going. He is only entering his 7th NFL season, and he has had only had over 300 carries twice in his career including 416 in 2006. He will turn 30 in November but I believe he still has a year or two left where he can perform at a high level. 4.5 ypc last year and he was in Herm Edwards dog house plenty the past 2 years. Maybe he deserved to be there but now we see a new coach and LJ will have a clean slate. I look for big things form him and a complete bargain at the tail end of the 5th round.
Just some thoughts with the later 1st round slots.
1.08-Randy Moss
2.05-Clinton Portis
3.08-Jason Witten or Dwayne Bowe…ADP has them there although I see Bowe routinely go right on the 2/3 turn.
4.04-Knowshon Moreno
5.08-Larry Johnson
You could land some pretty meaty RBs without trying too hard. I could even get behind something like taking WRs with the 1st 2 or 3 picks and then taking RBs in the next 3-4 rounds.
6th round
Value:
6.08 Willie Parker: This is only value if you go and get Mendenhall the next round. I believe locking up a starting RB spot however with the 6th and 7th round picks might be a bargain. You could even squeeze Mendenhall out in the 8th if you want to gamble. I’m not going to talk up Parker but you have to assume that there will be not be a total 50/50 split between the RB1/2 on this team so why not take both and roll with whatever happens? This is a better RB3 plan with the idea that one of the 2 will make a serviceable RB2.
7th round
Value:
7.06 Cedric Benson: Again for those that wait too long at RB he could make a decent selection here. The OL is a mess in Cinci though and I think they will be taught to pass block over run block as that is the strength of the Bengals if there is one. Many weeks Benson will be a non factor but you aren’t spending much with a 7th round pick here.
7.11 Ray Rice: Love the spot for him. This is another one of those combos where you can get Rice in round 7 and then maybe grab McGahee in the 8th. You lock up a RB slot on your team and you likely have the starter between the 2 of them. McClain is being moved to FB and I expect a big decrease in his touches. Also, if Derrick Mason really is retired I look for more balls out of the backfield for Lil Ray. I do not believe Ray Rice will ever be the 30 carry back he was at times in college but there is no reason he cannot be a good solid RB2 and contributor in a 2 back system.
8th round
Value:
8.08 Felix Jones: I am surprised he is going this late. I look for the Boys to run a lot this season and Jones is going to be involved in this offense. I look for at least 12-15 touches weekly from him whether it is thru the air or on the ground. In fact with Owens leaving I expect even more catches for the RBs. Jones will have some really big games this year, but it will be hard to know exactly when those will be.
No value:
8.02 Julius Jones: I know people are going to say how can you go wrong with a possible starter in the 8th round? Because there are better choices in better offenses and also better alternatives to JJ at this point in the draft. I don’t see the need for this guy on your roster. Let someone else enjoy the Seattle ground game this season.
9th round
Value:
9.04 Chester Taylor: Should be grabbed in the 7th or 8th by the ADP owner.
9.07 Darren Sproles: A small price to pay to ensure LT, better grab him in the 7th or 8th to be safe.
9.09 Slimdale White: I actually like him at this point in the draft. Last year he had 700+ on the ground and 15 TDs to boot. I think he is still a candidate for 10+ TDs but he has slimmed down this off season and that might provide a bigger burst and a few more longer runs although he broke an 80 yarder last year. Don’t discount this guy completely when you are drafting. He will still see most of the goal line carries.
10th round
Value:
10.07 Rashard Mendenhall: Wouldn’t wait to get him after you grab Willie Parker. Was taken in the 1st round and you can believe that they want to see what they have here. Did look terrible although to me in his limited touches…but that could change easily this year.
11th round
Value:
11.06 Jerious Norwood : Did this guy really go in the 3rd/4th round 2 years ago? I think he is armed robbery at this point in the draft. He will have a few head turning big plays this year. Is there any reason he should not be lined up in the slot with Roddy White andMicahel Jenkins on the ends, Gonzo at TE, Turner in the backfield…who exactly would cover Norwood for opposing defenses? A Lnebacker? Please, he would throttle past that guy all day long. I’m just saying that this guy is going to find his way on the field, he has to.
11.07 Fred Taylor: Yes he is value at this point. I don’t expect a lot from him but I do expect him to take over the Sammy Morris role on this team. He might even see double digit TDs on the ground although I would not count on it. This was one of the major RBs in his heyday but that was a long time ago. He didn’t just turn 30…he is 33 already, he hasn’t had double digit TDs since the year 2000!!! He hasn’t played a full 16 games since 2003. We’ll see what he does and it sure isn’t a bad pick if you think he might pop 1,000 yds and 10 TDs at this stage of the draft…in fact that would be unreal value.
11.10 Earnest Graham: 2 seasons ago on a limited schedule and was able in 10 games to amass 1,200 total yds, 49 receptions, and 10 TDs. I don’t think Ward is a great deal in the 4th or 5th round when you have this guy in the wings and can grab him for only a late 11th round pick. He will out produce his draft spot for sure.
12th round and beyond
Value:
12.06 LeSean McCoy: A must for Westbrook owners, and a bargain for the kind of output you can get out of Westbrook. Cheap insurance IMHO.
12.10 Laurence Maroney: 12th round gamble I can live with.
13.02 Jamaal Charles: Great cheap insurance for Larry Johnson.
14.01 Ladell Betts: Great cheap insurance for Clinton Portis.
I haven’t really sat down and examined WR but it seems clear to me that there are about 5 WRs give or take that are on a different level skill wise and skill set than many of the others. These super elite WRs to me almost merit taking 2 of them early and then going to work on RBs as once you get past these super elite WRs there really isn’t much difference at WR for me.
I don’t have all the answers and I am probably dead wrong on some of these evaluations but I have thought about this for a long time this off season and I really land at this point just about every time. I have never seen such talent at RB beyond the starters. And we know there will be some injuries. Someone is going to get mighty lucky by taking Felix Jones that by passed on MB III. That is more of an example than the rule.
Please share some thoughts and feel free to ask questions.
Thanks for all the work, MoP. This piece always seems like the official kickoff for fantasy season. 
MoP is being incredibly kind letting you off the hook with your weak posts in this thread. If you don't have any points to make that add to the discussion, you might not want to pop off and look like a fool to the thousands of people that visit these boards. Did you fail to read the post before the list, that said "this is last years top 10 I am reviewing"? You are obviously way out of your league; maybe try soaking up more information while visiting these boards...and at the same time refrain from touching your keyboard everytime you get a silly notion in your little head. Thanks for the well thought out indepth analysis MoP about all these RB's and the situations around the league. Seems like lots of people are looking to nail "super-elite" WR's late in round one of redraft leagues if possible and figure out the RB's later on down the road *rounds 3-9+*. Thanks again. ~OMM~
