Chadstroma
Footballguy
AND I CAN'T GET ANY REAL WORK DONE WITH MY KIDS HOME!!!!!!!!!
sigh
sigh
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Mortgage Rates (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter MechEng
- Start date
Buttonhook
Footballguy
Locked in today at 3.625% on a 30-yr re-fi. Thought that was OK, until I saw the orig fee and discounts. Went up $3,000 from when I called yesterday, which is no surprise with the unknowns and volatility.
I just hope loan processing doesn't completely fall apart in the next few weeks and I can get to closing.
I could see rates on short-term loans (15 year) staying competitive for a while, but I see rates on long-term term loans (30-year) going up until there's some economic steadiness, and even if we get the virus out of the way I still think it's going to take some time for these rates to drop. As people's 401k and wallets are lighter they'll be looking to lower monthly payments rather than their loan balance and this will keep rates on long-term loans higher (I predict). I was offered 3.125% today with no orig fee/discounts for a 15-year loan, (which is a bargain compared to what I paid for a 30-yr) and it was 2.875% yesterday, but I couldn't pull the trigger with it being almost a $1,000 increase in monthly payment (I will continue to pay that extra $1,000 each month to try to pay it off in 15 years but I couldn't walk away from that security blanket, especially now).
I just hope loan processing doesn't completely fall apart in the next few weeks and I can get to closing.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Seems like a bad time to buy a house. Rates are up, bubble prices still exist and country is heading into a recession of unknown magnitude.
joey
Footballguy
Same. I have my application fully filled out with my broker and she is standing by for the target rate of 3.25%. Even willing to pay a few hundred bucks to get me to 3.25% if rates get close.
This x100000. Ugh. So annoying. I can’t wait til I can get back into the office.SF Bay Area is "shelter in place" so can’t go in for 3 weeks at least
Chadstroma
Footballguy
No bubble prices in Illinois but I am sure that holds for many places. Still considered under priced really for the Greater Chicago area.
Rates are historically crazy low.... pretty close to all time lows..... we are just expecting them to be lower in response.
But yea. Who knows how this recession will go. I worry about small businesses..... many will not be able to just survive being 'shut down' for a couple of weeks. Many more will be hurt as people will take time to resume normal life for economic and fearful reasons.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Are these rates all single family? Are the higher rates rentals? Crazy that there's that big a difference unless some have horrible credit.
Seems like a great time if you're stable.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I am talking conventional primary SFR loans there and not even getting into VA, FHA or non-QM. There are just a ton of variables that change rates. Like I said in previous posts.... on rate for one person might be a great rate and a horrible rate for another and though credit can be a big factor, I am not even talking about that really.
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NutterButter
Footballguy
How's the demand looking Chadstroma? Are the mortgage folks catching up? I'd like to get a refi in but I'd imagine that rates are gonna stay really low for awhile so there's not a huge urgency.
TripItUp
Footballguy
we tried to refi our jumbo and didn't get a response from BofA or WellsFargo...and missed our window when the rate bottomed.
going through mortgage brokerage buddy next time
Buttonhook
Footballguy
Already in the high 2% range, could stay there for a while.
15-year rates could remain low for a while, like I said above, I see a lot of demand (and higher prices) for long-term loans/re-fi.
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Insoxicated
-fish-
Footballguy
Buttonhook
Footballguy
CR69
Footballguy
My company sent out an email yesterday regarding suspending loans for anyone that works for or owns a restaurant in an area where they have been shut down. Also starting to hear reports for appraisers refusing to take new orders, clients not letting appraisers into their homes, etc.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
New loan requests have fallen off but everyone is still busy. Our processors are beyond capacity so we have had to tap into processors who usually work part time and get contract processing to handle the business. Lenders are still overflowed with work and locks are generally high for most lenders. EVERYTHING is slowing down. The actual process of getting a loan done is really starting to either become harder, slow down or just stop completely. For example, if you are in some counties in California there is no way to get an appraisal because of the shelter in place orders. Courthouses are closing so no recording. Title companies are slowed. Can we get a VOE (verification of employment) from your employer if there is no one in office? Then thing that most everyone is working from home now... and if they are like me that means their productivity has been reduced by about 75% because your new co-workers have questions about when lunch will be ready or can't find their blue crayon or don't know how to figure out six groups of ten equals....NutterButter said:
I am still sticking to the plan of if you are thinking about refi, get the app in.... be relaxed about it and know the ball will roll slowly but float and cross your fingers that liquidity catches up to market conditions and rates drop (as I still think will happen). Then you can lock at that time and worry about closing on time. That is my advice to my clients and to anyone else thinking of refi as long as the lender is on board too.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
No clue. The normal way we judge rates isn't working right now because the MBS market is F'ed. There isn't any "judging on what we saw last time this happened we think..."[icon] said:
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yea, last I heard of Wells they were at 120 day locks on refi's though I believe their private banking was able to get that to 60 or 90 days. lolTripItUp said:
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I have seen some outliers pop up from other brokers mentioning a small bank or CU offering a really good deal recently. Essentially, if they want to portfolio a loan and have the appetite, now is the time for them to gobble up business.D-Day said:
Chadstroma
Footballguy
YES. A lot.-fish- said:
I think last year the entire mortgage business did something like $2 trillion in lending... and then the last few months there has been like $4 or 5 trillion in process. This and the fear of EPO's has been what has driven up rates higher than they otherwise should be.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I haven't had any with my loans but other brokers are reporting in our community chat groups a lot of "Hey, I got laid off, how does this impact my loan" type of questions and situations. It sucks all around. Obviously and primarily for the people losing their jobs and then to a much lesser degree for the loan officers who worked on a loan and now will get nothing from it.CR69 said:
There is a lot of economic pain coming through this. Nothing that comes out of DC will be able to stop the pain...
-fish-
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If the current backlog ever gets caught up, i think rates will drop again in a few months.
Still happy I cash out refi'd down to 3% for a 15 year. Especially since I just might use that money for investing
Still happy I cash out refi'd down to 3% for a 15 year. Especially since I just might use that money for investing
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Rates are being kept up higher than they "should" be because of the MBS and market uncertainty. Both should clear up with time. I think.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
15 year fixed 2.5% from ads I saw in the last few weeks.
I don't have a huge mortgage on my condo but going from 4 to 2.5 and cutting 13 years off the end has gotta be a better way to go.
I don't have a huge mortgage on my condo but going from 4 to 2.5 and cutting 13 years off the end has gotta be a better way to go.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Rates that are not up to date as of today are basically useless.... the market is bonkers right now.
Buttonhook
Footballguy
I was wondering this same thing as I'll need an appraisal done for my re-fi.CR69 said:
One thought I had was my wife works for a real estate company and she can do a 3-D visualization tour of the interior of our house. Also have a friend who does real estate photos using a drone and we could use him to get exterior photos of the house. Biggest issue may be file size(s), but that kind of information should be good enough for an appraiser to feel comfortable with, correct?
CR69
Footballguy
Lenders are still waiting on FNMA/FHLMC to provide guidance but right now I don't think that would fly. If the housing market doesn't start to drop (big if right now) we may see more electronic and drive by appraisals.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Extremely doubtful. I can't say with 100% certainty but I would be absolutely amazed if that was allowed UNLESS there is some significant new actions taken by Fannie/Freddie towards loosening appraisal standards as an emergency measure.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Yup. They are waiting for a lot of new guidance.... part of the rates issue is exactly that- waiting. There is too much uncertainty in the system right now and Fannie/Freddie must help give some guidance and clarifications.
One easy emergency measure that would bring instant relief in my belief is to allow QM loans to have pre-payment penalties up to 1 year. That would ease the MBS market greatly and make them look much more attractive to investors.
CR69
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Chadstroma
Footballguy
People are fing dumb.
My wife is a branch manager for a bank and these freaking old people are still coming in to the branches to deposit their $2.90 in loose coin (actual example) and getting mad that they are directing people to go through the drove through instead of the lobby for teller transactions. The same people with the moat to lose if they get it....
You can't give people options. Too many aren't smart enough to make the right choices.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Now times that by millions of people (maybe not refi part but the spending vs hoarding) and that is why the question is now recession or depression? We need strong action that gives a clear short term answer to this with dramatic action taken (1 month moratorium on rent/mortgage payments for example couple with a two week national shut down). Give the country and end in sight and clarity. Even if it hurts a bit... otherwise people will not spend and we will not recovery economically until they do.
CR69
Footballguy
@Chadstroma Are you hearing any chatter about HELOCs being frozen yet in your area? I've seen it discussed on some of the MBS and Mortgage Coach Facebook groups. Wondering if I should max out my HELOC now for reserves or to have money to plow into the market at 3.5%...
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
jb1020
Footballguy
Got my refi wrapped up yesterday. Went from a 4.7 to 3.5 on a 30 year. Not crazy, but saving about 200 a month. @Chadstroma 's referral had super low costs. I think it was less than $2000 total. Factoring in missing a mortgage payment I'll break even in about 6 months. Which was great for us because we probably won't be in our house for 5 more years.
Also to note, we opted to do the closing in our car as the attorney/notary watched from her office. Wasn't going to take my kids to a grand parents and kids are not allowed in the office due to COVID19.
Thanks again!
Also to note, we opted to do the closing in our car as the attorney/notary watched from her office. Wasn't going to take my kids to a grand parents and kids are not allowed in the office due to COVID19.
Thanks again!
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I haven't heard anything but as brokers we ste not really big on consumer lending. My wife hasn't mentioned hearing anything in retail banking. That being said back in 2008 that was a big thing, I think the big difference was the real estate matket cratering and valuations going off the cliff. Chase did that to my line and the next day I went in and maxed what was left out to put the cash in the bank. The rate on that now for the cost made it an easy choice to hedge with more "insurance" in the bank.CR69 said:
CR69
Footballguy
Yeah I'm trying to stay ahead of a 2008 type freeze. I'm keeping a close eye on price reductions, pending and back on market stats in our area. Nothing so far yet but I know we already have several borrowers on purchases that are questioning if now is the best time to buy a home.
CR69
Footballguy
We're trying to rush as many as possible right now but it's hard given the influx of volume over the last few weeks. Our underwriters and processors are already working 60+ hours a week and being given as much OT as they want.
Fingers crossed for ya buddy.
CR69
Footballguy
Yeah from what I'm hearing it's basically only the Fed right now which is why mortgage bonds tanked when they stopped buying this afternoon. They recovered fairly quickly so I wonder if they fired more bullets to prop them up. The question is, how many bullets do they have left at this point?
CR69
Footballguy
@Chadstroma
Got an email last night from one of our execs stating that title companies are starting to add an exception regarding unforeseeable impacts of COVID-19 and that our legal team is currently reviewing them with an update to come today. Have you heard or seen anything similar yet?
Got an email last night from one of our execs stating that title companies are starting to add an exception regarding unforeseeable impacts of COVID-19 and that our legal team is currently reviewing them with an update to come today. Have you heard or seen anything similar yet?
Chadstroma
Footballguy
I know a lot is being worked on in all aspects. I have heard some things for title and appraisal but have not seen anything concrete. The GSE's are suppose to have a big announcement today or Monday on some changes for appraisals and other info along the lines of doing alternate ways of doing appraisals without on site inspection such as using MLS pictures etc.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
What I am seeing right now:
Non-QM is basically dead (non-QM being pretty much any loan that does not fall into the conventional, government backed and jumbo loan boxes) no one is buying up the paper. Jumbo is near dead with the same issue.
Conventional and government backed are still doing but the rates have skyrocketed. An example, I am trying to close a loan today (trying because I can't get a verbal VOE and it is suppose to close in an hour) which is at 3.35% that same loan if we locked today would be 5%.
Lenders seem to be healthy but there is just no appetite for mortgage backed securities and in order to sell the loans off the books the rates are being jacked up in order for investors to bite. Before reluctance to buy was really based on fears of EPO's which would diminish return. Now it seems the fears are shifting to higher rates of defaults. My personal view is that this is temporary and based on being in the middle of a crisis with no known exit point yet. Fear is driving all markets including the MBS market.
There are major disruptions to pretty much the entire loan process right now as you can guess with America working from home.
Non-QM is basically dead (non-QM being pretty much any loan that does not fall into the conventional, government backed and jumbo loan boxes) no one is buying up the paper. Jumbo is near dead with the same issue.
Conventional and government backed are still doing but the rates have skyrocketed. An example, I am trying to close a loan today (trying because I can't get a verbal VOE and it is suppose to close in an hour) which is at 3.35% that same loan if we locked today would be 5%.
Lenders seem to be healthy but there is just no appetite for mortgage backed securities and in order to sell the loans off the books the rates are being jacked up in order for investors to bite. Before reluctance to buy was really based on fears of EPO's which would diminish return. Now it seems the fears are shifting to higher rates of defaults. My personal view is that this is temporary and based on being in the middle of a crisis with no known exit point yet. Fear is driving all markets including the MBS market.
There are major disruptions to pretty much the entire loan process right now as you can guess with America working from home.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
The Fed came in and bought up a lot of MBS today, pushing rates down significantly.
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