Most Likey 1st Round Bust Is ... ? (1 Viewer)

[Department 400]

When I crunch out my projections every year, I tend to evaluate the upside of players more than the downside. However, a couple of years back, I began switching up my strategy and nailing down those players I thought would bomb.

Though this isn't intended to be a Caddy-bashing thread, I just having trouble thinking this guy is an automatic first round success. With Pittman catching third-down balls, and Alstott snaking GL carries, how does Caddy rack up double-digit TDs running between the 20's? Additionally, the guy just vaporized for several games last season. We all want him to be consistent but ...

Looking at a different potential bust, if Ronnie Brown manages to establish himself as the soup-de-jour down south, he must have significant support from this QB position. If Culpepper resorts to his erratic ways, and Harrington does what he does best, defenses could key on Brown and shut him down thus locking him out of worthy first round consideration.

So many questions, so little time ...

 

[Keys Myaths]

The first rounders that could bomb, from most likely to least likely (according to ADP in a 12 team league, and of course, my opinion). I'm defining "bust" as finishing RB15 or lower.

Cadillac Williams

Ronnie Brown

Edgerrin James

LaMont Jordan

Tiki Barber

Steven Jackson

Rudi Johnson

Larry Johnson

Clinton Portis

Shaun Alexander

LaDainian Tomlinson

 

[FTRWRTR]

if caddy busts if will be because he can't stay healthy not because of what alstott or pittman do

 

[brakeyawself]

if caddy busts if will be because he can't stay healthy not because of what alstott or pittman do

I agree with that. He's obviously got the talent. But its odd, can all three of those RB's make it? Brown, Williams, and Benson...My money's on at least 1 will fail. It looks like Benson so far is in the lead (not calling him a Bust yet by any means though).... But if Williams gets hurt, who knows.

 

[MLBrandow]

First, let's be sure to start off with a definite list of what exactly constitutes a "1st round pick".

Here's the most recent antsports.com ADP list for 12TSSR.

1. Larry Johnson RB KCC 1.01.63 1.01 1.04 00.81 90

2. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.02.19 1.01 1.04 00.85 89

3. Shaun Alexander RB SEA 1.02.24 1.01 1.04 00.80 90

4. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.04.73 1.04 1.08 00.85 89

5. Tiki Barber RB NYG 1.04.88 1.03 1.09 01.05 88

6. Steven Jackson RB STL 1.06.71 1.04 1.09 01.33 90

7. Edgerrin James RB ARI 1.08.01 1.05 2.03 01.72 87

8. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 1.08.47 1.05 2.04 01.93 89

9. LaMont Jordan RB OAK 1.08.66 1.05 1.12 01.84 87

10. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 1.11.09 1.07 2.07 02.45 86

11. Carnell Williams RB TBB 1.11.43 1.05 2.05 02.32 87

12. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 1.12.99 1.09 2.08 02.19 88

We should also be clear on what exactly defines a bust. For the sake of this debate, let's consider it "2nd round ADP" for guys to the 1.05 pick, and "3rd round ADP" for the guys from 1.06 to 1.12.

It's easier since these guys are all on the same position, so let's say for one of these guys to "bust", they would have to have points rankings near or worse than the following guys:

13. Domanick Davis RB HOU 2.05.12 1.10 3.07 04.28 83

14. Willis McGahee RB BUF 2.06.63 1.11 3.03 03.65 83

15. Kevin Jones RB DET 2.10.81 2.01 3.09 04.52 85

16. Julius Jones RB DAL 2.12.14 1.12 3.12 04.99 86

17. Willie Parker RB PIT 3.03.95 2.01 4.07 05.89 85

18. Chester Taylor RB MIN 3.06.76 2.04 5.10 05.54 88

19. Jamal Lewis RB BAL 3.07.96 2.03 5.05 06.20 83

20. Reggie Bush RB NOS 3.08.83 2.08 5.04 06.32 86

21. Reuben Droughns RB CLE 3.09.29 2.08 4.11 05.50 86

22. Warrick Dunn RB ATL 3.12.62 3.02 5.08 05.89 85

So, to rephrase the question again, which of LJ, LT, SA, Portis and Tiki are most likely to hit 2nd round ADP or worse, and which of SJax, Edge, RB, Jordan, Rudi, Cadillac, Westy are likely to hit 3rd round ADP or worse?

IMO:

1. Ronnie Brown - Given every chance to carry the load this year, which is bad to me. He has 900 yards and 4 TDs on his rookie resume, albeit partially splitting carries. He's a big back, but he wore down last year with limited opportunities. Only has two 100+ yard games. He's a solid receiver, which helps his floor, but the potential for injury without a complement is big. Has always split time on the higher level game. How will he adapt to being a one-man show? Highest risk pick at 1.08.

2. Edgerrin James - Edge will be running behind the biggest OL in the NFL this year. That said, they can't pass block to save their lives, and this is going to put a lot of added strain on Edge in passing situations. It will limit his ability to receive out of the backfield, and Warner is a big question mark. He may be limited in red zone opportunities, but he should have good success on the goal-line, unlike in IND. I very highly doubt he reaches near his career averages. Big risk at 1.07, especially if/when Warner goes down.

3. Shaun Alexander - Last year's numbers were heavily influenced by injuries to Seattle's WR corps. He was pretty much the only red zone threat, and benefitted from a dominating OL. While it's cliche, the loss of Hutchinson is still a big deal, as it puts more pressure on Walter Jones. Not catching passes lowers his ceiling to begin with, and his YPC, Touches, and TDs are all likely to take a decent hit. Madden Jinx is hoaky, but it's a Jinx for a reason. Guys that have anomaly years like his seldom repeat.

4. Brian Westbrook - His PPR value makes him gold and consistently underrated. But Philadelphia looks like they are serious about wanting to run more this year. That's bad news for an undersized back who has never proven to be able to carry the load. He has high injury risk written all over him, and while some like myself believe the Eagles Offense will be pretty good as in years past, the concerns here are very legitimate.

5. Steven Jackson - His carry splits raise a big question mark. After the first 5 carries where he averages 5.3ypc, he dips to a consistent 3.4ypc. While he's 230lbs, he may lose some goal-line carries to 205lb Moe Williams. Linehan will utilize more double TE sets and pound the rock, which should maximize Jackson's skill set, but it's hard to ignore his last-half ypc drop. Certainly injuries and an interim coach may have played a large role, but it might have also been Jackson wearing down. How will he respond to a 300 carry season? 350?

6. LaMont Jordan - Art Shell will have a new commitment to the run. This would seem like great news for Jordan, except now that he has a new QB who actually has legs, both of these factors are likely to significantly reduce his receptions totals. 70 is a pretty high number to match, and while few expected him to reach those lofty totals, I think even fewer expect him to duplicate them this season. He only averaged 3.8ypc last season, and that simply has to improve, even though the OL might arguably have even regressed some.

7. Cadillac Williams - Fair or not (and I don't think they are), it's hard to ignore the facts. Cadillac has had one entirely healthy season playing upper-level football. He has five key injuries to his five year career, and while each seems to have been the result of single-play rather than wear-down, the fact remains he might deserve the tag "injury prone." Also, while Alstott is slotted to be the reserve short-yardage back this season, the possibility still remains that he could eat, at least some, into his TDs. While Gruden plans to get Cadillac a lot more involved in the receiving game this season, so far in camp his hands have been very average, one of Pittman's strengths. He has an OL which will possibly feature two rookies on the right side, although it's hard to bottom the 2.0ypc he averaged to the right side last year.

8. Tiki Barber - He's getting up there in years. While he does have significantly less mileage than other RBs of his age, he is talking retirement, his team has a tough schedule this year, and he may lose more goal-line touches. He has been very consistent over the past three years, and while there are no indications his age is showing this year, if he loses even half a step it will have a weighty toll on his yardage totals.

9. Rudi Johnson - Rudi practically cloned his '04 totals last year. That said, Palmer doesn't throw to him, which caps his potential. But with all the off-field problems Bengals players are having, you have to believe there is a risk of it carrying over to the field. Team Chemistry is vital to the success of this team, as is Palmer's health. While it looks like things are still okay now, if this team implodes, they will hit the floor hard.

10. Clinton Portis - All signs seem to point to Portis having a stud year. Saunders was brought in to breathe some all-pro life into this offense which seemed to be on life support until late last season. Brunell is another year older, and certainly has a risk of flopping, leaving unproven Jason Campbell to come in and lead the team. Portis also has lost 10lbs since last season, and is down to his Denver playing weight, hopefully to be much more explosive. Of course we all remember Portis's back-to-back 1500/15 seasons, but owners might also remember his fragility. Will he be able to hold up for an entire season at this lower weight? It may seem trivial, but 10lbs can make a lot of difference, both good and bad.

11. LaDainian Tomlinson - The biggest fear factor for Tomlinson is the new guy at Quarterback. Rivers is completely unproven other than his arguably overrated 1.04 draft pick in '04's draft. His sidearm delivery is also something that shouldn't be ignored for the stability of this offense. While Tomlinson is probably the consensus most complete running back in the NFL, if Rivers can't consistently pass the ball, we are likely to see a dip in his numbers. That said, he has been the 3rd best RB in Fantasy Football for four years running. It is not exceedingly likely that a guy who has never finished lower than RB7 (his rookie season) is going to drop out of the top 12.

12. Larry Johnson - This guy is the next Jim Brown. You can small sample size me all you want, but watch him play, and look at his stats, and it's all there. His floor is where the ceiling is for the bottom half of the 1st rounders, and barring any unforseen injury, he has virtually no chance of finishing outside of the top 12. Losing tackles, fullbacks, head coaches, offensive coordinators--I'm sorry, but this guy is an absolute monster, and will produce on an elite level no matter where he is. He has a new head coach who wasn't afraid to run Curtis Martin into the ground. In a system where the primary objective is to get the ball to the Running Back and let him score all the TDs, he has a better chance of breaking the all-time rushing record this year than flopping.

 

[Raider Nation]

First, let's be sure to start off with a definite list of what exactly constitutes a "1st round pick".

Here's the most recent antsports.com ADP list for 12TSSR.

1. Larry Johnson RB KCC 1.01.63 1.01 1.04 00.81 90

2. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.02.19 1.01 1.04 00.85 89

3. Shaun Alexander RB SEA 1.02.24 1.01 1.04 00.80 90

4. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.04.73 1.04 1.08 00.85 89

5. Tiki Barber RB NYG 1.04.88 1.03 1.09 01.05 88

6. Steven Jackson RB STL 1.06.71 1.04 1.09 01.33 90

7. Edgerrin James RB ARI 1.08.01 1.05 2.03 01.72 87

8. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 1.08.47 1.05 2.04 01.93 89

9. LaMont Jordan RB OAK 1.08.66 1.05 1.12 01.84 87

10. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 1.11.09 1.07 2.07 02.45 86

11. Carnell Williams RB TBB 1.11.43 1.05 2.05 02.32 87

12. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 1.12.99 1.09 2.08 02.19 88

We should also be clear on what exactly defines a bust. For the sake of this debate, let's consider it "2nd round ADP" for guys to the 1.05 pick, and "3rd round ADP" for the guys from 1.06 to 1.12.

It's easier since these guys are all on the same position, so let's say for one of these guys to "bust", they would have to have points rankings near or worse than the following guys:

13. Domanick Davis RB HOU 2.05.12 1.10 3.07 04.28 83

14. Willis McGahee RB BUF 2.06.63 1.11 3.03 03.65 83

15. Kevin Jones RB DET 2.10.81 2.01 3.09 04.52 85

16. Julius Jones RB DAL 2.12.14 1.12 3.12 04.99 86

17. Willie Parker RB PIT 3.03.95 2.01 4.07 05.89 85

18. Chester Taylor RB MIN 3.06.76 2.04 5.10 05.54 88

19. Jamal Lewis RB BAL 3.07.96 2.03 5.05 06.20 83

20. Reggie Bush RB NOS 3.08.83 2.08 5.04 06.32 86

21. Reuben Droughns RB CLE 3.09.29 2.08 4.11 05.50 86

22. Warrick Dunn RB ATL 3.12.62 3.02 5.08 05.89 85

So, to rephrase the question again, which of LJ, LT, SA, Portis and Tiki are most likely to hit 2nd round ADP or worse, and which of SJax, Edge, RB, Jordan, Rudi, Cadillac, Westy are likely to hit 3rd round ADP or worse?

IMO:

1. Ronnie Brown - Given every chance to carry the load this year, which is bad to me. He has 900 yards and 4 TDs on his rookie resume, albeit partially splitting carries. He's a big back, but he wore down last year with limited opportunities. Only has two 100+ yard games. He's a solid receiver, which helps his floor, but the potential for injury without a complement is big. Has always split time on the higher level game. How will he adapt to being a one-man show? Highest risk pick at 1.08.

2. Edgerrin James - Edge will be running behind the biggest OL in the NFL this year. That said, they can't pass block to save their lives, and this is going to put a lot of added strain on Edge in passing situations. It will limit his ability to receive out of the backfield, and Warner is a big question mark. He may be limited in red zone opportunities, but he should have good success on the goal-line, unlike in IND. I very highly doubt he reaches near his career averages. Big risk at 1.07, especially if/when Warner goes down.

3. Shaun Alexander - Last year's numbers were heavily influenced by injuries to Seattle's WR corps. He was pretty much the only red zone threat, and benefitted from a dominating OL. While it's cliche, the loss of Hutchinson is still a big deal, as it puts more pressure on Walter Jones. Not catching passes lowers his ceiling to begin with, and his YPC, Touches, and TDs are all likely to take a decent hit. Madden Jinx is hoaky, but it's a Jinx for a reason. Guys that have anomaly years like his seldom repeat.

4. Brian Westbrook - His PPR value makes him gold and consistently underrated. But Philadelphia looks like they are serious about wanting to run more this year. That's bad news for an undersized back who has never proven to be able to carry the load. He has high injury risk written all over him, and while some like myself believe the Eagles Offense will be pretty good as in years past, the concerns here are very legitimate.

5. Steven Jackson - His carry splits raise a big question mark. After the first 5 carries where he averages 5.3ypc, he dips to a consistent 3.4ypc. While he's 230lbs, he may lose some goal-line carries to 205lb Moe Williams. Linehan will utilize more double TE sets and pound the rock, which should maximize Jackson's skill set, but it's hard to ignore his last-half ypc drop. Certainly injuries and an interim coach may have played a large role, but it might have also been Jackson wearing down. How will he respond to a 300 carry season? 350?

6. LaMont Jordan - Art Shell will have a new commitment to the run. This would seem like great news for Jordan, except now that he has a new QB who actually has legs, both of these factors are likely to significantly reduce his receptions totals. 70 is a pretty high number to match, and while few expected him to reach those lofty totals, I think even fewer expect him to duplicate them this season. He only averaged 3.8ypc last season, and that simply has to improve, even though the OL might arguably have even regressed some.

7. Cadillac Williams - Fair or not (and I don't think they are), it's hard to ignore the facts. Cadillac has had one entirely healthy season playing upper-level football. He has five key injuries to his five year career, and while each seems to have been the result of single-play rather than wear-down, the fact remains he might deserve the tag "injury prone." Also, while Alstott is slotted to be the reserve short-yardage back this season, the possibility still remains that he could eat, at least some, into his TDs. While Gruden plans to get Cadillac a lot more involved in the receiving game this season, so far in camp his hands have been very average, one of Pittman's strengths. He has an OL which will possibly feature two rookies on the right side, although it's hard to bottom the 2.0ypc he averaged to the right side last year.

8. Tiki Barber - He's getting up there in years. While he does have significantly less mileage than other RBs of his age, he is talking retirement, his team has a tough schedule this year, and he may lose more goal-line touches. He has been very consistent over the past three years, and while there are no indications his age is showing this year, if he loses even half a step it will have a weighty toll on his yardage totals.

9. Rudi Johnson - Rudi practically cloned his '04 totals last year. That said, Palmer doesn't throw to him, which caps his potential. But with all the off-field problems Bengals players are having, you have to believe there is a risk of it carrying over to the field. Team Chemistry is vital to the success of this team, as is Palmer's health. While it looks like things are still okay now, if this team implodes, they will hit the floor hard.

10. Clinton Portis - All signs seem to point to Portis having a stud year. Saunders was brought in to breathe some all-pro life into this offense which seemed to be on life support until late last season. Brunell is another year older, and certainly has a risk of flopping, leaving unproven Jason Campbell to come in and lead the team. Portis also has lost 10lbs since last season, and is down to his Denver playing weight, hopefully to be much more explosive. Of course we all remember Portis's back-to-back 1500/15 seasons, but owners might also remember his fragility. Will he be able to hold up for an entire season at this lower weight? It may seem trivial, but 10lbs can make a lot of difference, both good and bad.

11. LaDainian Tomlinson - The biggest fear factor for Tomlinson is the new guy at Quarterback. Rivers is completely unproven other than his arguably overrated 1.04 draft pick in '04's draft. His sidearm delivery is also something that shouldn't be ignored for the stability of this offense. While Tomlinson is probably the consensus most complete running back in the NFL, if Rivers can't consistently pass the ball, we are likely to see a dip in his numbers. That said, he has been the 3rd best RB in Fantasy Football for four years running. It is not exceedingly likely that a guy who has never finished lower than RB7 (his rookie season) is going to drop out of the top 12.

12. Larry Johnson - This guy is the next Jim Brown. You can small sample size me all you want, but watch him play, and look at his stats, and it's all there. His floor is where the ceiling is for the bottom half of the 1st rounders, and barring any unforseen injury, he has virtually no chance of finishing outside of the top 12. Losing tackles, fullbacks, head coaches, offensive coordinators--I'm sorry, but this guy is an absolute monster, and will produce on an elite level no matter where he is. He has a new head coach who wasn't afraid to run Curtis Martin into the ground. In a system where the primary objective is to get the ball to the Running Back and let him score all the TDs, he has a better chance of breaking the all-time rushing record this year than flopping.

Nice work.I would add that if Roaf stays retired and Turley replaces him, I'd temper my L.J. enthusiasm.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

First, let's be sure to start off with a definite list of what exactly constitutes a "1st round pick".

Here's the most recent antsports.com ADP list for 12TSSR.

1. Larry Johnson RB KCC 1.01.63 1.01 1.04 00.81 90

2. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.02.19 1.01 1.04 00.85 89

3. Shaun Alexander RB SEA 1.02.24 1.01 1.04 00.80 90

4. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.04.73 1.04 1.08 00.85 89

5. Tiki Barber RB NYG 1.04.88 1.03 1.09 01.05 88

6. Steven Jackson RB STL 1.06.71 1.04 1.09 01.33 90

7. Edgerrin James RB ARI 1.08.01 1.05 2.03 01.72 87

8. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 1.08.47 1.05 2.04 01.93 89

9. LaMont Jordan RB OAK 1.08.66 1.05 1.12 01.84 87

10. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 1.11.09 1.07 2.07 02.45 86

11. Carnell Williams RB TBB 1.11.43 1.05 2.05 02.32 87

12. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 1.12.99 1.09 2.08 02.19 88

We should also be clear on what exactly defines a bust. For the sake of this debate, let's consider it "2nd round ADP" for guys to the 1.05 pick, and "3rd round ADP" for the guys from 1.06 to 1.12.

It's easier since these guys are all on the same position, so let's say for one of these guys to "bust", they would have to have points rankings near or worse than the following guys:

13. Domanick Davis RB HOU 2.05.12 1.10 3.07 04.28 83

14. Willis McGahee RB BUF 2.06.63 1.11 3.03 03.65 83

15. Kevin Jones RB DET 2.10.81 2.01 3.09 04.52 85

16. Julius Jones RB DAL 2.12.14 1.12 3.12 04.99 86

17. Willie Parker RB PIT 3.03.95 2.01 4.07 05.89 85

18. Chester Taylor RB MIN 3.06.76 2.04 5.10 05.54 88

19. Jamal Lewis RB BAL 3.07.96 2.03 5.05 06.20 83

20. Reggie Bush RB NOS 3.08.83 2.08 5.04 06.32 86

21. Reuben Droughns RB CLE 3.09.29 2.08 4.11 05.50 86

22. Warrick Dunn RB ATL 3.12.62 3.02 5.08 05.89 85

So, to rephrase the question again, which of LJ, LT, SA, Portis and Tiki are most likely to hit 2nd round ADP or worse, and which of SJax, Edge, RB, Jordan, Rudi, Cadillac, Westy are likely to hit 3rd round ADP or worse?

IMO:

1. Ronnie Brown - Given every chance to carry the load this year, which is bad to me. He has 900 yards and 4 TDs on his rookie resume, albeit partially splitting carries. He's a big back, but he wore down last year with limited opportunities. Only has two 100+ yard games. He's a solid receiver, which helps his floor, but the potential for injury without a complement is big. Has always split time on the higher level game. How will he adapt to being a one-man show? Highest risk pick at 1.08.

2. Edgerrin James - Edge will be running behind the biggest OL in the NFL this year. That said, they can't pass block to save their lives, and this is going to put a lot of added strain on Edge in passing situations. It will limit his ability to receive out of the backfield, and Warner is a big question mark. He may be limited in red zone opportunities, but he should have good success on the goal-line, unlike in IND. I very highly doubt he reaches near his career averages. Big risk at 1.07, especially if/when Warner goes down.

3. Shaun Alexander - Last year's numbers were heavily influenced by injuries to Seattle's WR corps. He was pretty much the only red zone threat, and benefitted from a dominating OL. While it's cliche, the loss of Hutchinson is still a big deal, as it puts more pressure on Walter Jones. Not catching passes lowers his ceiling to begin with, and his YPC, Touches, and TDs are all likely to take a decent hit. Madden Jinx is hoaky, but it's a Jinx for a reason. Guys that have anomaly years like his seldom repeat.

4. Brian Westbrook - His PPR value makes him gold and consistently underrated. But Philadelphia looks like they are serious about wanting to run more this year. That's bad news for an undersized back who has never proven to be able to carry the load. He has high injury risk written all over him, and while some like myself believe the Eagles Offense will be pretty good as in years past, the concerns here are very legitimate.

5. Steven Jackson - His carry splits raise a big question mark. After the first 5 carries where he averages 5.3ypc, he dips to a consistent 3.4ypc. While he's 230lbs, he may lose some goal-line carries to 205lb Moe Williams. Linehan will utilize more double TE sets and pound the rock, which should maximize Jackson's skill set, but it's hard to ignore his last-half ypc drop. Certainly injuries and an interim coach may have played a large role, but it might have also been Jackson wearing down. How will he respond to a 300 carry season? 350?

6. LaMont Jordan - Art Shell will have a new commitment to the run. This would seem like great news for Jordan, except now that he has a new QB who actually has legs, both of these factors are likely to significantly reduce his receptions totals. 70 is a pretty high number to match, and while few expected him to reach those lofty totals, I think even fewer expect him to duplicate them this season. He only averaged 3.8ypc last season, and that simply has to improve, even though the OL might arguably have even regressed some.

7. Cadillac Williams - Fair or not (and I don't think they are), it's hard to ignore the facts. Cadillac has had one entirely healthy season playing upper-level football. He has five key injuries to his five year career, and while each seems to have been the result of single-play rather than wear-down, the fact remains he might deserve the tag "injury prone." Also, while Alstott is slotted to be the reserve short-yardage back this season, the possibility still remains that he could eat, at least some, into his TDs. While Gruden plans to get Cadillac a lot more involved in the receiving game this season, so far in camp his hands have been very average, one of Pittman's strengths. He has an OL which will possibly feature two rookies on the right side, although it's hard to bottom the 2.0ypc he averaged to the right side last year.

8. Tiki Barber - He's getting up there in years. While he does have significantly less mileage than other RBs of his age, he is talking retirement, his team has a tough schedule this year, and he may lose more goal-line touches. He has been very consistent over the past three years, and while there are no indications his age is showing this year, if he loses even half a step it will have a weighty toll on his yardage totals.

9. Rudi Johnson - Rudi practically cloned his '04 totals last year. That said, Palmer doesn't throw to him, which caps his potential. But with all the off-field problems Bengals players are having, you have to believe there is a risk of it carrying over to the field. Team Chemistry is vital to the success of this team, as is Palmer's health. While it looks like things are still okay now, if this team implodes, they will hit the floor hard.

10. Clinton Portis - All signs seem to point to Portis having a stud year. Saunders was brought in to breathe some all-pro life into this offense which seemed to be on life support until late last season. Brunell is another year older, and certainly has a risk of flopping, leaving unproven Jason Campbell to come in and lead the team. Portis also has lost 10lbs since last season, and is down to his Denver playing weight, hopefully to be much more explosive. Of course we all remember Portis's back-to-back 1500/15 seasons, but owners might also remember his fragility. Will he be able to hold up for an entire season at this lower weight? It may seem trivial, but 10lbs can make a lot of difference, both good and bad.

11. LaDainian Tomlinson - The biggest fear factor for Tomlinson is the new guy at Quarterback. Rivers is completely unproven other than his arguably overrated 1.04 draft pick in '04's draft. His sidearm delivery is also something that shouldn't be ignored for the stability of this offense. While Tomlinson is probably the consensus most complete running back in the NFL, if Rivers can't consistently pass the ball, we are likely to see a dip in his numbers. That said, he has been the 3rd best RB in Fantasy Football for four years running. It is not exceedingly likely that a guy who has never finished lower than RB7 (his rookie season) is going to drop out of the top 12.

12. Larry Johnson - This guy is the next Jim Brown. You can small sample size me all you want, but watch him play, and look at his stats, and it's all there. His floor is where the ceiling is for the bottom half of the 1st rounders, and barring any unforseen injury, he has virtually no chance of finishing outside of the top 12. Losing tackles, fullbacks, head coaches, offensive coordinators--I'm sorry, but this guy is an absolute monster, and will produce on an elite level no matter where he is. He has a new head coach who wasn't afraid to run Curtis Martin into the ground. In a system where the primary objective is to get the ball to the Running Back and let him score all the TDs, he has a better chance of breaking the all-time rushing record this year than flopping.

Awesome post. Great overall insight.I'd throw in Perry with regards to considering Rudi Johnson. He may have trouble staying healthy, but when he is - he gets a ton of 3rd down looks and short dump off passes throughout the game. That alone limits Rudi's overall #s (ie, what they could be if Perry weren't there).

When considering Westbrook, I would consider the Philly's passing game. McNabb = great QB. However, this year's group of Philly WRs is probably the worst group of WRs of each of the 12 teams above. All the other 11 RBs on this list have anywhere from slightly better to much better WRs. This is important cause Westbrook is a bit undersized as it is. If defenses stuff the box out of a lack of respect for the passing game - that could be problematic for Westy.

On Barber, my only question is: what talk of retirement for Barber? Sure he is on the wrong side of 30 - so presumably he can't keep this up for another 5 years. But I haven't heard much with respect to him retiring right now. And in redraft - we are considering now. If you were talking keeper or dynasty leagues, I would agree that his age alone should bring retirement sooner than almost anyone else on this list. But since there is zero contemplation of retiring before the season (or during the season), I don't see how that is a negative factor.

But again, love the post.

I think the sticky situation is going to be for those picking after the top 3 stud RBs (LJ, SA, LT2).

After those 3 are gone - and to some extent after Portis & Barber are gone - it is a tough call. Do you go with the most upside of the next tier (Rudi, S.Jax, Brown, Caddy, Edge, Jordan) or the least downside?

 

[EBF]

Injuries will probably cut down a couple of this year's FF darlings. It's difficult to predict which guys will go down, but if you look solely at workload and age then I think Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander, and Edgerrin James are the most likely to crumble.

As for the players who are likely to disappoint based on performance, I think Ronnie Brown is clearly the biggest risk in the top 12. He only has two career 100 yard games to his name and is being overrated based on his NFL draft hype. Virtually everything people are saying about Brown was being said about Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee at this time last year. I can definitely see Brown's season playing out in a similarly-disappointing fashion. I'm much less worried about Cadillac Williams because I think he's a better player and because he had several big games last season (whereas Brown really only had two good games).

Another guy who could come back down to Earth is LaMont Jordan. The TDs and receptions obscured what was otherwise a relatively mediocre year.

I also think Larry Johnson might be a mild disappointment. I'm not sure if anyone can maintain that level of per-game productivity over a full season.

 

[nygiants56]

Lamont Jordan.

 

[tomarken]

Virtually everything people are saying about Brown was being said about Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee at this time last year.

The only difference is that anyone who hyped McGahee and K Jones last year was ignoring the fact that they were both on terrible teams. You can't underestimate the impact that has on a RB - I didn't like either of them last year for precisely that reason.Brown, OTOH, has a pretty decent supporting cast this year, and defenses won't be able to key on him they way they could against a McGahee last year. I'm not saying he isn't a risk, but I don't think he has as much downside as McGahee or Jones did last year. Could he disappoint? Sure, and if you take him as a RB1 and he puts up RB2 numbers he'll be called a bust. But I'm a little bit of a gambler and I love Brown's potential this year, so he's a risk I'd be willing to take after the top 5 or 6 RB's are off the board...

 

[Sabertooth]

Nice post MLB, but you are blinded by your Ronnie Brown hate bud. He's the real deal. Barring injury, he's not going to bust.

 

[Sabertooth]

Virtually everything people are saying about Brown was being said about Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee at this time last year.

The only difference is that anyone who hyped McGahee and K Jones last year was ignoring the fact that they were both on terrible teams. You can't underestimate the impact that has on a RB - I didn't like either of them last year for precisely that reason.Brown, OTOH, has a pretty decent supporting cast this year, and defenses won't be able to key on him they way they could against a McGahee last year. I'm not saying he isn't a risk, but I don't think he has as much downside as McGahee or Jones did last year. Could he disappoint? Sure, and if you take him as a RB1 and he puts up RB2 numbers he'll be called a bust. But I'm a little bit of a gambler and I love Brown's potential this year, so he's a risk I'd be willing to take after the top 5 or 6 RB's are off the board...

Not to mention Miami has a very good defense and one of the top 3 or 4 coaching staffs in the league. Detroit was a mess last season, an absolute mess. They had no discipline or leadership. The same can be said for Buffalo. There is a reason those teams have new coaches this season.

 

[rascal]

The first rounders that could bomb, from most likely to least likely (according to ADP in a 12 team league, and of course, my opinion). I'm defining "bust" as finishing RB15 or lower.

Cadillac Williams

Ronnie Brown

Edgerrin James

LaMont Jordan

Tiki Barber

Steven Jackson

Rudi Johnson

Larry Johnson

Clinton Portis

Shaun Alexander

LaDainian Tomlinson

Why I have him #6 and not afraid to take him if I have that draft spot (non-PPR leagues)

 

[3nOut]

The first rounders that could bomb, from most likely to least likely (according to ADP in a 12 team league, and of course, my opinion). I'm defining "bust" as finishing RB15 or lower.Cadillac WilliamsRonnie BrownEdgerrin JamesLaMont JordanTiki BarberSteven JacksonRudi JohnsonLarry JohnsonClinton PortisShaun AlexanderLaDainian Tomlinson

Who's the 12th? You only have 11. McGahee, Westbrook? Someone else? Where would you put them?

 

[Keys Myaths]

The first rounders that could bomb, from most likely to least likely (according to ADP in a 12 team league, and of course, my opinion). I'm defining "bust" as finishing RB15 or lower.Cadillac WilliamsRonnie BrownEdgerrin JamesLaMont JordanTiki BarberSteven JacksonRudi JohnsonLarry JohnsonClinton PortisShaun AlexanderLaDainian Tomlinson

Who's the 12th? You only have 11. McGahee, Westbrook? Someone else? Where would you put them?

Right now, Steve Smith's ADP is 1.12. Those are the first rounders right now.

 

[Keys Myaths]

The first rounders that could bomb, from most likely to least likely (according to ADP in a 12 team league, and of course, my opinion). I'm defining "bust" as finishing RB15 or lower.

Cadillac Williams

Ronnie Brown

Edgerrin James

LaMont Jordan

Tiki Barber

Steven Jackson

Rudi Johnson

Larry Johnson

Clinton Portis

Shaun Alexander

LaDainian Tomlinson

Why I have him #6 and not afraid to take him if I have that draft spot (non-PPR leagues)

The schedule is brutal. You may not think that's a big deal, but it's a huge one...that's a quick way to become a "bust" without actually being one. You get 70 yards a game against very tough defenses, I'd say that's pretty good--but it's not going to be good enough for his owners.That's probably the main reason he's so high on this list. Also, I think the highest picks are also the safest (LJ, LT, SA, etc.), so Rudi falls naturally behind them.

 

[The Jerk]

First, let's be sure to start off with a definite list of what exactly constitutes a "1st round pick".

Here's the most recent antsports.com ADP list for 12TSSR.

1. Larry Johnson RB KCC 1.01.63 1.01 1.04 00.81 90

2. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.02.19 1.01 1.04 00.85 89

3. Shaun Alexander RB SEA 1.02.24 1.01 1.04 00.80 90

4. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.04.73 1.04 1.08 00.85 89

5. Tiki Barber RB NYG 1.04.88 1.03 1.09 01.05 88

6. Steven Jackson RB STL 1.06.71 1.04 1.09 01.33 90

7. Edgerrin James RB ARI 1.08.01 1.05 2.03 01.72 87

8. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 1.08.47 1.05 2.04 01.93 89

9. LaMont Jordan RB OAK 1.08.66 1.05 1.12 01.84 87

10. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 1.11.09 1.07 2.07 02.45 86

11. Carnell Williams RB TBB 1.11.43 1.05 2.05 02.32 87

12. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 1.12.99 1.09 2.08 02.19 88

We should also be clear on what exactly defines a bust. For the sake of this debate, let's consider it "2nd round ADP" for guys to the 1.05 pick, and "3rd round ADP" for the guys from 1.06 to 1.12.

It's easier since these guys are all on the same position, so let's say for one of these guys to "bust", they would have to have points rankings near or worse than the following guys:

13. Domanick Davis RB HOU 2.05.12 1.10 3.07 04.28 83

14. Willis McGahee RB BUF 2.06.63 1.11 3.03 03.65 83

15. Kevin Jones RB DET 2.10.81 2.01 3.09 04.52 85

16. Julius Jones RB DAL 2.12.14 1.12 3.12 04.99 86

17. Willie Parker RB PIT 3.03.95 2.01 4.07 05.89 85

18. Chester Taylor RB MIN 3.06.76 2.04 5.10 05.54 88

19. Jamal Lewis RB BAL 3.07.96 2.03 5.05 06.20 83

20. Reggie Bush RB NOS 3.08.83 2.08 5.04 06.32 86

21. Reuben Droughns RB CLE 3.09.29 2.08 4.11 05.50 86

22. Warrick Dunn RB ATL 3.12.62 3.02 5.08 05.89 85

So, to rephrase the question again, which of LJ, LT, SA, Portis and Tiki are most likely to hit 2nd round ADP or worse, and which of SJax, Edge, RB, Jordan, Rudi, Cadillac, Westy are likely to hit 3rd round ADP or worse?

IMO:

1. Ronnie Brown - Given every chance to carry the load this year, which is bad to me. He has 900 yards and 4 TDs on his rookie resume, albeit partially splitting carries. He's a big back, but he wore down last year with limited opportunities. Only has two 100+ yard games. He's a solid receiver, which helps his floor, but the potential for injury without a complement is big. Has always split time on the higher level game. How will he adapt to being a one-man show? Highest risk pick at 1.08.

2. Edgerrin James - Edge will be running behind the biggest OL in the NFL this year. That said, they can't pass block to save their lives, and this is going to put a lot of added strain on Edge in passing situations. It will limit his ability to receive out of the backfield, and Warner is a big question mark. He may be limited in red zone opportunities, but he should have good success on the goal-line, unlike in IND. I very highly doubt he reaches near his career averages. Big risk at 1.07, especially if/when Warner goes down.

3. Shaun Alexander - Last year's numbers were heavily influenced by injuries to Seattle's WR corps. He was pretty much the only red zone threat, and benefitted from a dominating OL. While it's cliche, the loss of Hutchinson is still a big deal, as it puts more pressure on Walter Jones. Not catching passes lowers his ceiling to begin with, and his YPC, Touches, and TDs are all likely to take a decent hit. Madden Jinx is hoaky, but it's a Jinx for a reason. Guys that have anomaly years like his seldom repeat.

4. Brian Westbrook - His PPR value makes him gold and consistently underrated. But Philadelphia looks like they are serious about wanting to run more this year. That's bad news for an undersized back who has never proven to be able to carry the load. He has high injury risk written all over him, and while some like myself believe the Eagles Offense will be pretty good as in years past, the concerns here are very legitimate.

5. Steven Jackson - His carry splits raise a big question mark. After the first 5 carries where he averages 5.3ypc, he dips to a consistent 3.4ypc. While he's 230lbs, he may lose some goal-line carries to 205lb Moe Williams. Linehan will utilize more double TE sets and pound the rock, which should maximize Jackson's skill set, but it's hard to ignore his last-half ypc drop. Certainly injuries and an interim coach may have played a large role, but it might have also been Jackson wearing down. How will he respond to a 300 carry season? 350?

6. LaMont Jordan - Art Shell will have a new commitment to the run. This would seem like great news for Jordan, except now that he has a new QB who actually has legs, both of these factors are likely to significantly reduce his receptions totals. 70 is a pretty high number to match, and while few expected him to reach those lofty totals, I think even fewer expect him to duplicate them this season. He only averaged 3.8ypc last season, and that simply has to improve, even though the OL might arguably have even regressed some.

7. Cadillac Williams - Fair or not (and I don't think they are), it's hard to ignore the facts. Cadillac has had one entirely healthy season playing upper-level football. He has five key injuries to his five year career, and while each seems to have been the result of single-play rather than wear-down, the fact remains he might deserve the tag "injury prone." Also, while Alstott is slotted to be the reserve short-yardage back this season, the possibility still remains that he could eat, at least some, into his TDs. While Gruden plans to get Cadillac a lot more involved in the receiving game this season, so far in camp his hands have been very average, one of Pittman's strengths. He has an OL which will possibly feature two rookies on the right side, although it's hard to bottom the 2.0ypc he averaged to the right side last year.

8. Tiki Barber - He's getting up there in years. While he does have significantly less mileage than other RBs of his age, he is talking retirement, his team has a tough schedule this year, and he may lose more goal-line touches. He has been very consistent over the past three years, and while there are no indications his age is showing this year, if he loses even half a step it will have a weighty toll on his yardage totals.

9. Rudi Johnson - Rudi practically cloned his '04 totals last year. That said, Palmer doesn't throw to him, which caps his potential. But with all the off-field problems Bengals players are having, you have to believe there is a risk of it carrying over to the field. Team Chemistry is vital to the success of this team, as is Palmer's health. While it looks like things are still okay now, if this team implodes, they will hit the floor hard.

10. Clinton Portis - All signs seem to point to Portis having a stud year. Saunders was brought in to breathe some all-pro life into this offense which seemed to be on life support until late last season. Brunell is another year older, and certainly has a risk of flopping, leaving unproven Jason Campbell to come in and lead the team. Portis also has lost 10lbs since last season, and is down to his Denver playing weight, hopefully to be much more explosive. Of course we all remember Portis's back-to-back 1500/15 seasons, but owners might also remember his fragility. Will he be able to hold up for an entire season at this lower weight? It may seem trivial, but 10lbs can make a lot of difference, both good and bad.

11. LaDainian Tomlinson - The biggest fear factor for Tomlinson is the new guy at Quarterback. Rivers is completely unproven other than his arguably overrated 1.04 draft pick in '04's draft. His sidearm delivery is also something that shouldn't be ignored for the stability of this offense. While Tomlinson is probably the consensus most complete running back in the NFL, if Rivers can't consistently pass the ball, we are likely to see a dip in his numbers. That said, he has been the 3rd best RB in Fantasy Football for four years running. It is not exceedingly likely that a guy who has never finished lower than RB7 (his rookie season) is going to drop out of the top 12.

12. Larry Johnson - This guy is the next Jim Brown. You can small sample size me all you want, but watch him play, and look at his stats, and it's all there. His floor is where the ceiling is for the bottom half of the 1st rounders, and barring any unforseen injury, he has virtually no chance of finishing outside of the top 12. Losing tackles, fullbacks, head coaches, offensive coordinators--I'm sorry, but this guy is an absolute monster, and will produce on an elite level no matter where he is. He has a new head coach who wasn't afraid to run Curtis Martin into the ground. In a system where the primary objective is to get the ball to the Running Back and let him score all the TDs, he has a better chance of breaking the all-time rushing record this year than flopping.

Nice work, MLB. This is you at your best. When you focus on substance instead of schtick, you do a solid job with analysis and you're not afraid to stick your neck out when talking about players My thoughts are that I think you are too hard on Alexander. You give good reasons (which I agree with) for his numbers to decrease, but his numbers can decrease by 25% and he still would not be a bust by any definition. I know Cadillac's your boy but I think he's more likely to bust than Jackson, Jordan and Alexander. Still, good posting and good insight. It's always nice to see the rationale behind a ranking.

 

[Gopher State]

My bust is Steve Jackson:

1. Moe Williams will steal the goal line carries like he did in MN.

2. Once Bulger goes down, (he will if they block like they did last year and how they did in the first pre-season game this year) I not sure if Gus is any more mobile at QB/or how much gas Gus has left in the tank. Then SJ will see 8 in the box.

3. Rams D looks bad, how many games will the Rams be down by 14 in the 4th quarter and have to air it out, and need SJ to block in the backfield to protect Bulger.

I think SJ is a great talent, but the coach split carries in Fin town, loved Moe on the goal line in MN, I don't see him giving all the carries to SJ. I think factors beyond Jackson, will bring him down.

To me SJ is to much of a risk at the redraft 6/7 round. On the other had Moe Williams might be a very nice late round steal, based on the track record of the new Rams coach.

 

[Raider Nation]

My bust is Steve Jackson:1. Moe Williams will steal the goal line carries like he did in MN.

Either that, or he won't......

 

[jurb26]

Tiki Barber

Edgerrin James

Steven Jackson

Cadillac Williams

Westy

LaMont Jordan

Larry Johnson

Ronnie Brown

Rudi Johnson

Shaun Alexander

Clinton Portis

LaDainian Tomlinson

 

[Snotbubbles]

Cadillac Williams has the most "bust potential."

1. He has an injury history.

2. Compared to the other 1st rounders apart from Rudi Johnson and Shaun Alexander he is little to no threat in the receiving game.

3. He doesn't get the goalline work.

 

[KCC]

Cadillac Williams has the most "bust potential."

1. He has an injury history.

2. Compared to the other 1st rounders apart from Rudi Johnson and Shaun Alexander he is little to no threat in the receiving game.

3. He doesn't get the goalline work.

Anyone losing out on the goalline carries for their team has the potential to take a huge value hit if their ADP has them being drafted in the first round. Caddy and Tiki both fit this description.

 

[bocksheesh]

IMO:

3. Shaun Alexander - Last year's numbers were heavily influenced by injuries to Seattle's WR corps. He was pretty much the only red zone threat, and benefitted from a dominating OL. While it's cliche, the loss of Hutchinson is still a big deal, as it puts more pressure on Walter Jones. Not catching passes lowers his ceiling to begin with, and his YPC, Touches, and TDs are all likely to take a decent hit. Madden Jinx is hoaky, but it's a Jinx for a reason. Guys that have anomaly years like his seldom repeat.

There is no question that it is quite likely that Alexander won't repeat his ridiculous numbers of last year. But even 80% of those number would still make him a Top 3 player.As for losing Hutchinson, I don't think it will impact Alexander any more or less than losing Roaf will impact Larry Johnson.

And take a look at Seattle's schedule. Yet again, it is a creampuff schedule. I just don't see how you can be a bust with a schedule like that.

Sean Alexander's floor, even if he has a down year, is still very high. Hard to see Alexander being a bust - barring injury of course.

 

[agent 86]

Cadillac Williams has the most "bust potential."1. He has an injury history.2. Compared to the other 1st rounders apart from Rudi Johnson and Shaun Alexander he is little to no threat in the receiving game.3. He doesn't get the goalline work.

I agree that Caddy has bust potential due to the fact that he'll be drafted in the 1st round of most leagues, but the reasons RB's become busts are either due to injury (Fred Taylor, Holmes) or deteriorating skill level due to age, wear and tear, lingering injuries (ie Stephen Davis or CMart). IMHO, most guys who are either limited in goalline (Sanders, Tiki) or 3rd downs (Rudi, Dillon) can still be at least serviceable starters and shouldn't be confused with players that miss significant time and/or lose their starting jobs. I look at 3 things (neither or which include 3rd downs or goalline duty)1) Injury history - who has had trouble staying on the field for a season (Caddy, Westbrook, DD)2) Competition - who could lose their jobs through a slight deterioration of skill - who has someone waiting in the wings (Foster, maybe Rudi)3) Overall wear and tear - trying to predict injury by looking at RB's who've logged significant mileage over the years (Tiki had >400 touches in '05 and > 30, SA with two straight yrs of >350 carries)I think that Tiki and SA are candidates for potential injury, but it's simply too difficult to predict and they're both way too good to pass on in round 1. DD & Foster aren't to be considered in the 1st round. Therefore, Caddy and Westbrook seem to be the boom or bust type RB's for this year.

 

[MLBrandow]

Nice work, MLB. This is you at your best. When you focus on substance instead of schtick, you do a solid job with analysis and you're not afraid to stick your neck out when talking about players My thoughts are that I think you are too hard on Alexander. You give good reasons (which I agree with) for his numbers to decrease, but his numbers can decrease by 25% and he still would not be a bust by any definition. I know Cadillac's your boy but I think he's more likely to bust than Jackson, Jordan and Alexander. Still, good posting and good insight. It's always nice to see the rationale behind a ranking.

When do I ever focus on :schtick: ? *note to J, need :schtick: smiley.

Virtually everything people are saying about Brown was being said about Kevin Jones and Willis McGahee at this time last year.

The only difference is that anyone who hyped McGahee and K Jones last year was ignoring the fact that they were both on terrible teams. You can't underestimate the impact that has on a RB - I didn't like either of them last year for precisely that reason.

We'll have to agree to disagree here, as I feel that the Dolphins and their 9-7 was as flukey last year as the Bills and their 9-7 in '04.

There is no question that it is quite likely that Alexander won't repeat his ridiculous numbers of last year. But even 80% of those number would still make him a Top 3 player.Sean Alexander's floor, even if he has a down year, is still very high. Hard to see Alexander being a bust - barring injury of course.

Do you or does anyone else here know the actual average regression % for backs with his workload/etc? I remember a study being done and being cited numerous times on this board, but would be curious as to multiplying his stats by the AR%.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

First, let's be sure to start off with a definite list of what exactly constitutes a "1st round pick".

Here's the most recent antsports.com ADP list for 12TSSR.

1. Larry Johnson RB KCC 1.01.63 1.01 1.04 00.81 90

2. LaDainian Tomlinson RB SDC 1.02.19 1.01 1.04 00.85 89

3. Shaun Alexander RB SEA 1.02.24 1.01 1.04 00.80 90

4. Clinton Portis RB WAS 1.04.73 1.04 1.08 00.85 89

5. Tiki Barber RB NYG 1.04.88 1.03 1.09 01.05 88

6. Steven Jackson RB STL 1.06.71 1.04 1.09 01.33 90

7. Edgerrin James RB ARI 1.08.01 1.05 2.03 01.72 87

8. Ronnie Brown RB MIA 1.08.47 1.05 2.04 01.93 89

9. LaMont Jordan RB OAK 1.08.66 1.05 1.12 01.84 87

10. Rudi Johnson RB CIN 1.11.09 1.07 2.07 02.45 86

11. Carnell Williams RB TBB 1.11.43 1.05 2.05 02.32 87

12. Brian Westbrook RB PHI 1.12.99 1.09 2.08 02.19 88

We should also be clear on what exactly defines a bust. For the sake of this debate, let's consider it "2nd round ADP" for guys to the 1.05 pick, and "3rd round ADP" for the guys from 1.06 to 1.12.

It's easier since these guys are all on the same position, so let's say for one of these guys to "bust", they would have to have points rankings near or worse than the following guys:

13. Domanick Davis RB HOU 2.05.12 1.10 3.07 04.28 83

14. Willis McGahee RB BUF 2.06.63 1.11 3.03 03.65 83

15. Kevin Jones RB DET 2.10.81 2.01 3.09 04.52 85

16. Julius Jones RB DAL 2.12.14 1.12 3.12 04.99 86

17. Willie Parker RB PIT 3.03.95 2.01 4.07 05.89 85

18. Chester Taylor RB MIN 3.06.76 2.04 5.10 05.54 88

19. Jamal Lewis RB BAL 3.07.96 2.03 5.05 06.20 83

20. Reggie Bush RB NOS 3.08.83 2.08 5.04 06.32 86

21. Reuben Droughns RB CLE 3.09.29 2.08 4.11 05.50 86

22. Warrick Dunn RB ATL 3.12.62 3.02 5.08 05.89 85

So, to rephrase the question again, which of LJ, LT, SA, Portis and Tiki are most likely to hit 2nd round ADP or worse, and which of SJax, Edge, RB, Jordan, Rudi, Cadillac, Westy are likely to hit 3rd round ADP or worse?

IMO:

1. Ronnie Brown - Given every chance to carry the load this year, which is bad to me. He has 900 yards and 4 TDs on his rookie resume, albeit partially splitting carries. He's a big back, but he wore down last year with limited opportunities. Only has two 100+ yard games. He's a solid receiver, which helps his floor, but the potential for injury without a complement is big. Has always split time on the higher level game. How will he adapt to being a one-man show? Highest risk pick at 1.08.

2. Edgerrin James - Edge will be running behind the biggest OL in the NFL this year. That said, they can't pass block to save their lives, and this is going to put a lot of added strain on Edge in passing situations. It will limit his ability to receive out of the backfield, and Warner is a big question mark. He may be limited in red zone opportunities, but he should have good success on the goal-line, unlike in IND. I very highly doubt he reaches near his career averages. Big risk at 1.07, especially if/when Warner goes down.

3. Shaun Alexander - Last year's numbers were heavily influenced by injuries to Seattle's WR corps. He was pretty much the only red zone threat, and benefitted from a dominating OL. While it's cliche, the loss of Hutchinson is still a big deal, as it puts more pressure on Walter Jones. Not catching passes lowers his ceiling to begin with, and his YPC, Touches, and TDs are all likely to take a decent hit. Madden Jinx is hoaky, but it's a Jinx for a reason. Guys that have anomaly years like his seldom repeat.

4. Brian Westbrook - His PPR value makes him gold and consistently underrated. But Philadelphia looks like they are serious about wanting to run more this year. That's bad news for an undersized back who has never proven to be able to carry the load. He has high injury risk written all over him, and while some like myself believe the Eagles Offense will be pretty good as in years past, the concerns here are very legitimate.

5. Steven Jackson - His carry splits raise a big question mark. After the first 5 carries where he averages 5.3ypc, he dips to a consistent 3.4ypc. While he's 230lbs, he may lose some goal-line carries to 205lb Moe Williams. Linehan will utilize more double TE sets and pound the rock, which should maximize Jackson's skill set, but it's hard to ignore his last-half ypc drop. Certainly injuries and an interim coach may have played a large role, but it might have also been Jackson wearing down. How will he respond to a 300 carry season? 350?

6. LaMont Jordan - Art Shell will have a new commitment to the run. This would seem like great news for Jordan, except now that he has a new QB who actually has legs, both of these factors are likely to significantly reduce his receptions totals. 70 is a pretty high number to match, and while few expected him to reach those lofty totals, I think even fewer expect him to duplicate them this season. He only averaged 3.8ypc last season, and that simply has to improve, even though the OL might arguably have even regressed some.

7. Cadillac Williams - Fair or not (and I don't think they are), it's hard to ignore the facts. Cadillac has had one entirely healthy season playing upper-level football. He has five key injuries to his five year career, and while each seems to have been the result of single-play rather than wear-down, the fact remains he might deserve the tag "injury prone." Also, while Alstott is slotted to be the reserve short-yardage back this season, the possibility still remains that he could eat, at least some, into his TDs. While Gruden plans to get Cadillac a lot more involved in the receiving game this season, so far in camp his hands have been very average, one of Pittman's strengths. He has an OL which will possibly feature two rookies on the right side, although it's hard to bottom the 2.0ypc he averaged to the right side last year.

8. Tiki Barber - He's getting up there in years. While he does have significantly less mileage than other RBs of his age, he is talking retirement, his team has a tough schedule this year, and he may lose more goal-line touches. He has been very consistent over the past three years, and while there are no indications his age is showing this year, if he loses even half a step it will have a weighty toll on his yardage totals.

9. Rudi Johnson - Rudi practically cloned his '04 totals last year. That said, Palmer doesn't throw to him, which caps his potential. But with all the off-field problems Bengals players are having, you have to believe there is a risk of it carrying over to the field. Team Chemistry is vital to the success of this team, as is Palmer's health. While it looks like things are still okay now, if this team implodes, they will hit the floor hard.

10. Clinton Portis - All signs seem to point to Portis having a stud year. Saunders was brought in to breathe some all-pro life into this offense which seemed to be on life support until late last season. Brunell is another year older, and certainly has a risk of flopping, leaving unproven Jason Campbell to come in and lead the team. Portis also has lost 10lbs since last season, and is down to his Denver playing weight, hopefully to be much more explosive. Of course we all remember Portis's back-to-back 1500/15 seasons, but owners might also remember his fragility. Will he be able to hold up for an entire season at this lower weight? It may seem trivial, but 10lbs can make a lot of difference, both good and bad.

11. LaDainian Tomlinson - The biggest fear factor for Tomlinson is the new guy at Quarterback. Rivers is completely unproven other than his arguably overrated 1.04 draft pick in '04's draft. His sidearm delivery is also something that shouldn't be ignored for the stability of this offense. While Tomlinson is probably the consensus most complete running back in the NFL, if Rivers can't consistently pass the ball, we are likely to see a dip in his numbers. That said, he has been the 3rd best RB in Fantasy Football for four years running. It is not exceedingly likely that a guy who has never finished lower than RB7 (his rookie season) is going to drop out of the top 12.

12. Larry Johnson - This guy is the next Jim Brown. You can small sample size me all you want, but watch him play, and look at his stats, and it's all there. His floor is where the ceiling is for the bottom half of the 1st rounders, and barring any unforseen injury, he has virtually no chance of finishing outside of the top 12. Losing tackles, fullbacks, head coaches, offensive coordinators--I'm sorry, but this guy is an absolute monster, and will produce on an elite level no matter where he is. He has a new head coach who wasn't afraid to run Curtis Martin into the ground. In a system where the primary objective is to get the ball to the Running Back and let him score all the TDs, he has a better chance of breaking the all-time rushing record this year than flopping.

except for your Brown/Williams bias. If you read your write ups on Brown and Williams objectively, I don't think you could put one of them at 1 and one at 7. There is not that much difference between the two. I'm not saying one is better than the other... I am saying there's not that much difference between the two when you look at risk.I also would rank Alexander a little lower. I don't think he repeats last season's performance, but I think he still finishes as a top 10 RB.

 

[MLBrandow]

except for your Brown/Williams bias. If you read your write ups on Brown and Williams objectively, I don't think you could put one of them at 1 and one at 7. There is not that much difference between the two. I'm not saying one is better than the other... I am saying there's not that much difference between the two when you look at risk.I also would rank Alexander a little lower. I don't think he repeats last season's performance, but I think he still finishes as a top 10 RB.

I think I was a little harsh on Alexander, but surely there is no riskier pick than Brown. If I missed on one of them, it would be Cadillac for sure. That said, I think I hit both about where they should be.IMO, he's sandwiched between Rudi and Portis. I tried to legitimize claims that I feel are asenine, such as his injury-risk and his loss of goal-line touches, as well as OL problems.I suppose if I was over-friendly to one, it would have to have been LJ, but I wouldn't slot him below LT at the worst.Guy will be running from the early 60s Cleveland Browns playbook.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

...

No need to quote the whole thing, but I do want to compliment the post.VERY .