LHUCKS
Footballguy
from game to game, not year to year
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Most overvalued TOP player at each position for 2011 Redraft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LHUCKS
- Start date
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Finley was on pace for 1200 yards after four games last year...not sure why everybody is afraid of him a. He's ranked anywhere from 4-6 on average and his ADP is beyond the 6th round.I don't get the Finley hate.
PizzaDeliveryGuy
extra sausage
It isn't hate. I love his upside but 4 games is an awfully small sample size to be prorating and there are plenty of weapons for Rodgers to find in GB. I think he will have a good year but of the top TEs I think he has the ability to bust more than the others.
Pipes
Footballguy
Love Nicks...it wouldn't shock me if he was the #1 WR this year...guy is a beast.Here's my list...QB - Manning (Still a great QB but with the neck issues and his age he's due for a slight dropoff. He may still crack the top 5 but he's no lock to do soRB - Turner - Looked slow the 2nd half of last year. I just don't see the burst with him anymore.WR - Larry Fitzgerald - love that talent but not the team. I really think the Eagles pulled a fast one on the Cards and somehow convinced them Kolb is a legit NFL QB. Not impressed with him at all and because of that Fitz suffers.TE - Vernon Davis - Like Fitz...love the talent but hate the QB situation.
QB- P. Manning hes been taken top 3-4 qb to me another qb ill let someone have, I also dont really take a qb early so Im looking at Manning to finish 6-7 for qbs this season so thats why I selected him, plus the team is aging all around him dunno just leary maybe
RB- MJD - At some point in the draft his value will make someone take him, but I am trying to avoid him, to many concerns with his health and his team is crappy..
WR- Jennings - If you look at last season he only started to step up once Finley went down, i expect that to be the same this season, jennings will have a solid season I just have him outside the top 10 wr
TE- Gates - imo where he is being drafted you can get a better WR/RB then grab a te later, also his injury risk concerns me
RB- MJD - At some point in the draft his value will make someone take him, but I am trying to avoid him, to many concerns with his health and his team is crappy..
WR- Jennings - If you look at last season he only started to step up once Finley went down, i expect that to be the same this season, jennings will have a solid season I just have him outside the top 10 wr
TE- Gates - imo where he is being drafted you can get a better WR/RB then grab a te later, also his injury risk concerns me
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I don't have a problem with the reasoning for these, but Fitz will likely have a better QB situation. The question is how much better. It will be interesting to see his ADP going forward.
Good topic.
I agree on Schaub and Charles but I disagree on both White and Witten.
As you point out...
So Jennings and Gates to replace White and Witten for me.
I agree on Schaub and Charles but I disagree on both White and Witten.
As you point out...
...to me both White and Witten are pretty much guaranteed to not be duds. I don't think either of these guys are ones that will win you a league, but I think they are both good pieces that are locks to not totally kill you (as I see possible with Schaub and Charles). I would not take White as the 2nd WR off the board nor would I take Witten as the 1st or 2nd TE off the board (so I agree they are overvalued) but I think they are both very safe picks to not be duds.For me on the WR side that I think that most overvalued of the top group is Jennings as was noted before. For TE, I have a tough time picking apart any of the top 5 (Gates, Clark, Witten, Finley, Davis) as being overvalued, but I suppose based on where I have seen them drafted I would say Gates is the one I would consider the most overvalued, only because he is getting older, Jackson should take some of those targets away and I have this fear of injury due to the last half of last year. That said, he was on such a tremendous pace early last year that I don't blame people for jumping early, I am just not willing to do so.
So Jennings and Gates to replace White and Witten for me.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
I can get on board with that...I agree that White and Witten have relatively high floors...my problem with respect to their rankings is their ceiling.
I started a thread exposing Jennings several months ago, so we're on the same page there. Gates, when healthy, is the best FF TE and there isn't really a close second IMHO...just depends on your risk appetite regarding him.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Hmmm...
I had not heard the 85% comment, that is rather troubling 7 weeks before the season.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Winslow has more pure talent and less competition for targets IMHO. Winslow has averaged 14 games in the last three years, Daniels has averaged 11...11 is a very low number.I don't have a huge problem with Daniels, he has shown spurts of upside that can't be ignored...the end of last season was encouraging.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Chris Johnson is the exception, not the rule.
sihaokills
Footballguy
AP
Instinctive
Footballguy
I didn't use him as a comparison. You did. Way to ignore the rest of the post. That's what we've come to expect from you I suppose...
LHUCKS
Footballguy
What part of your post would you like me to address...I'm busy spotting value right now.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Well I'm not sure. Typically when somebody picks apart every aspect of your assertion one would respond with some time of rebuff that would re-assert the premises and back it up with evidence. Then again...I suppose your SOP is to blow off the response with "wit" (or lack thereof) and a sarcastic response. Lol. For instance, here was YOUR QUOTE regarding Charles:
"Defenses will get better at gameplanning (see Chris Johnson)."To which I wondered where exactly defenses got better at gameplanning against Chris Johnson: After his 1200 yard rookie season, when he set the NFL single season record for yards from scrimmage? Or after that season when he once again went over 1600 total yards from scrimmage? To which I asserted that if defenses managed to gameplan better for Charles just like they did with Johnson (who you brought up as the comparison) then Charles would be a great pick at 4th overall.
Edit: Oh yeah, I forgot...
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Simplistic reasoning.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
His YPC saw a dramatic decrease(down to 4.3), I think anybody who actually watches football observed that defenses did a better job containing Johnson.I'm done responding to your posts. I don't appreciate your tone."Defenses will get better at gameplanning (see Chris Johnson)."To which I wondered where exactly defenses got better at gameplanning against Chris Johnson: After his 1200 yard rookie season, when he set the NFL single season record for yards from scrimmage? Or after that season when he once again went over 1600 total yards from scrimmage? To which I asserted that if defenses managed to gameplan better for Charles just like they did with Johnson (who you brought up as the comparison) then Charles would be a great pick at 4th overall.Edit: Oh yeah, I forgot...
sihaokills
Footballguy
Jeez... It's fantasy football
QB: Anybody going in the top 2 rounds. More guys throw for 4000 yards and 25+ TDs now than ever before, closing the scoring gap between the tiers. I'd rather grab a bottom of the second tier (but still top 7-8) in rounds 3-4 after grabbing a stud RB/WR combo.
RB: Chris Johnson. Since 2009, 14/15 of his 100+ rushing yard games came with Vince Young under center for the majority of snaps. Averaged 130+ yards and 1.2 TDs in those same 15 games, the other 17 games he averaged about 80 ypg and less than 1/2 a TD per game. Vince Young plays in Philadelphia now. Johnson just might have been Eddie George-d by the manner that Fisher used him the last two seasons as well. Would take Rice over him @5 in my redraft with no hesitation.
WR: Hard to say here, I'm hoping the run starts around pick 10 and one of Nicks or Wallace makes it to middle late 2nd round.
TE: Will agree with Witten. The 9 TDs last year are a huge outlier, Kitna used him at the expense of other weapons, Romo won't.
RB: Chris Johnson. Since 2009, 14/15 of his 100+ rushing yard games came with Vince Young under center for the majority of snaps. Averaged 130+ yards and 1.2 TDs in those same 15 games, the other 17 games he averaged about 80 ypg and less than 1/2 a TD per game. Vince Young plays in Philadelphia now. Johnson just might have been Eddie George-d by the manner that Fisher used him the last two seasons as well. Would take Rice over him @5 in my redraft with no hesitation.
WR: Hard to say here, I'm hoping the run starts around pick 10 and one of Nicks or Wallace makes it to middle late 2nd round.
TE: Will agree with Witten. The 9 TDs last year are a huge outlier, Kitna used him at the expense of other weapons, Romo won't.
Manster
Footballguy
QB-Vick I've seeing him go in the mid 1st in mocks. No thanks, I'll wait for Romo, Eli, Roeth, etc.....
RB-Foster Mostly a gut feeling that he comes back to earth. I'll take AP, Rice, MJD, CJ over him. I could be dead wrong here, oh well.
RB-Charles KC has a harder schedule, and my gut tells me he wont produce for his ADP
WR-Chad Johnson His ADP will creep up to overvalued in the next few weeks.
TE-Witten He will be money in ppr, but agree with OP, he will not get the redzone looks with Dez and his his ability to go up and get the ball.
RB-Foster Mostly a gut feeling that he comes back to earth. I'll take AP, Rice, MJD, CJ over him. I could be dead wrong here, oh well.
RB-Charles KC has a harder schedule, and my gut tells me he wont produce for his ADP
WR-Chad Johnson His ADP will creep up to overvalued in the next few weeks.
TE-Witten He will be money in ppr, but agree with OP, he will not get the redzone looks with Dez and his his ability to go up and get the ball.
RebelINS
Footballguy
This is asinine. Peterson have proven he's probably the best running back in the NFL and he's going into a contract year. Is he holding out? No, he's going to play and dominate. So they have less help at receiver this year? They have a better QB and if you watched Vikings games last year you'd see that Peterson did fine against 8 man fronts. He'll be top 2, I think he will be #1.'Gamblin said:
QB - Rivers, Manning, Brady, Matt Ryan - too many other options that will give you 1-2 pts less per week later in the draft (Romo, Cutler, Roeth, Freeman)
RB - Gore, MJD, Turner, S-Jax, Blount, Mendenhall - first 4 are all aging and on the downswing of their career but being drafted as if little or zero risk exists. I think a 2nd rounder for Blount is too rich, and I think Mendenhall in the top 8 is insane.
WR - Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, Tampa Mike Williams, Dwayne Bowe - White is due for a modest decline but is being taken near the 1/2 turn; Wayne is again; D-Jax is more exciting than he is FF-valuable; Greg Jennings was considered a BUST until Finley got hurt so no way am I drafting that in the 2nd round; Tampa Mike in the 5th round is fine but I think he gets more competition for targets and his TD rates have to fall; and, Bowe cannot come close to repeating last year due to a new OC, poor QB, way tougher schedule
TE - Jason Witten - see Witten's stats prior to Romo injury and in the past 5 years. Always puts up "good" numbers, but 800 and 5 is more likely to me and I don't think those are top-5 TE numbers.
RB - Gore, MJD, Turner, S-Jax, Blount, Mendenhall - first 4 are all aging and on the downswing of their career but being drafted as if little or zero risk exists. I think a 2nd rounder for Blount is too rich, and I think Mendenhall in the top 8 is insane.
WR - Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, Tampa Mike Williams, Dwayne Bowe - White is due for a modest decline but is being taken near the 1/2 turn; Wayne is again; D-Jax is more exciting than he is FF-valuable; Greg Jennings was considered a BUST until Finley got hurt so no way am I drafting that in the 2nd round; Tampa Mike in the 5th round is fine but I think he gets more competition for targets and his TD rates have to fall; and, Bowe cannot come close to repeating last year due to a new OC, poor QB, way tougher schedule
TE - Jason Witten - see Witten's stats prior to Romo injury and in the past 5 years. Always puts up "good" numbers, but 800 and 5 is more likely to me and I don't think those are top-5 TE numbers.
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griff321
Footballguy
Like the way you spotted Matt Leinart? Don't get me wrong it's a good thread topic, but the way you act all pretentious and narcissistic is disgusting.'LHUCKS said:'Instinctive said:
A thread laced with d-bagery like this pops up by Lhucks every single season and it's mostly wrong by the end of the season. You have to give him credit for making people think about things like this, but think for yourself and DO NOT TAKE HIS ADVICE AT FACE VALUE! Just look up his big thread last season.
For instance he cites Roddy White because, "WR - Roddy White - ranked as high as #2, Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR"
That entire piece of information is factually wrong. Roddy White is a red-zone BEAST. Only three WRs had more red-zone targets than Roddy: Danny Amendola(24), Larry Fitzgerald(24), and Lance Moore(22). Larry Fitz scored on 20.8% of those targets while Roddy scored on 23.8% of those targets. If anything Roddy will be WORSE in PPR leagues IF you feel Julio will have that big of an impact. Last season White had the highest percentage of total team targets among WRs at 31%, and he he still managed to convert 64.2% of those targets(the best among at least the top ten of guys that had the highest percentage of total team targets). If Anything having another player to take attention away from White will result in a fewer targets and receptions, but I feel his YPC avg will come back up.
(DISCLAIMER!: The one rub is that these stats don't take into account what was catchable or not and who's fault it was for the lack of conversion. If anyone can find better stats please post them.)
Then LHUCKS agrees with this pile of trash posted by Gamblin'man, "RB: Adrian Peterson - He's being drafted 1st or 2nd off the board in most drafts. 99.9% chance he doesn't finish the year that high. The O-line is getting old and declining. They have no vertical threat and probably boast the worst starting outside WRs in the NFL. This means every week this year he will see the box stacked solely to stop him. He's being drafted much to high on name recognition.
Most of that analysis is not grounded in reality. All Day has been one of the most consistent RBs in his time in the league. I think he has a higher chance at finishing at or very near his ADP than any other RB in the top 5. Last year most of the o-line played all or most of the season with very bad injuries and it showed with the lack of experienced depth we had. Loosing Sully in preseason really hurt any continuity the unit had. Hutch is getting older(33) along with McKinnie(31), however Loadholt(25) and Sullivan(25) needed to just stay healthy and not regress. They did neither, but they do have talent. We had less of a vertical threat last season and teams have been stacking the box since AD entered the league yet he continues to be one of the very best among his peers.
Last season proves that he can play on a garbage team and not have his typical burst and still be a stud.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Let it all out big fella.Why are you hiding behind an alias?
kinglochness
Footballguy
I think Peyton sees a dropoff this year. I've seen LeSean McCoy going top 5 in some drafts. That's crazy high for standard or PPR. I would probably agree with Jennings due to the SB hype. And I don't know TE's well enough because my league treats TE's like WR's. Good topic, btw.'eakfootball said:
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
I realize some of you have something against LHUCKS, I haven't been around long enough to have as much of a grudge(Even though I will always completely disagree with him about Greg Jennings'LHUCKS said:
). I think this is a solid thread actually and think hes dead on on the guys he pointed out in the opening post other than maybe Charles, but I can see how he could think that way.I think this year most of the first round RBs are a big risk other than ADP, Foster and CJ2K. IMO im not sure its worth drafting Rice, McCoy, Charles, Jones Drew and Mendenhall early when you can get the same type of guys in the late first and second round. Guys like McFadden,Turner, Forte, Sjax and Gore have the same type of Ceiling for Redraft , just for one reason or another dont have the same perceived value. This is why I think picks 4-8 in general are overvalued as a whole. If you have one of those picks you are basically forced to pick one of those guys, not to say those guys cant be studs and not to even say one of those guys couldn't even be NO.1 this year, but I think we can all agree those 4 guys all have more risk than most of us feel comfortable with. I know if I get one of those picks im going to try like hell to trade down to later in the first or even to the second.Anywho, Back to guys being overvalued:
Agree Completely with Schaub, you can definitely get guys much later that have a solid chance to outproduce him. (stafford, Bradford, Freeman, Big ben) I think its definitely all about getting one of the top seven guys this year, seems like there is a big drop off after that as of now.
Runningbacks - I already talked about them but other than the picks 4-8, I also think Ryan Grant is being overvalued. I personally dont think there is going to be a feature back in Green Bay this year, but if I had to take a guess it would be on James Starks, not grant, and Starks can be had much much later than grant.
Wide Receivers- For me I see the big drop off at around twenty (Right after welker, harvin, maclin, bryant). So guys like steve johnson , Anquan boldin, johnny knox and santana moss are all guys im avoiding because I think you can get guys later (Sims-walker,Mike thomas,Arrelious Benn, Greg little and Roy Williams) that have the same type of potential, For less of a price. MIke williams From Tampa is also a guy I think is being a bit overvalued.
Tight Ends:For me, There is a very distinct top five group of guys that I would set a goal before the draft of going out and getting ( Jermichael , Dallas, Gates, Witten and Vernon) . That next tier after the top 5 is what I think is getting overvalued. I wouldnt say Jimmy Graham is , I know a lot of people like him and I personally have not seen enough of him to form an opinion, but after him guys like Marcedes Lewis, Owen Daniels, Chris Cooley and Zach Miller just dont seem like good value to me. I would rather wait and pick up a combination of two of the following guys: Kellen Winslow (who heard was looking great in camp) Jermaine Gresham, Dustin Keller, Jared Cook, Tony Moeaki, even guys like Lance Kendricks and Ed Dickson can be had for next to nothing and are at least in solid situations to suceed. I'm not saying that the mid tier of tight ends are worth Nothing , I just think you can spend valuable mid round picks working on the rest of your roster and then pick up these guys much later and not even lose that much from a point per game point of view. But, I would stress getting a top five guys so you dont have to worry about it in the first place.
thats my two cents
Edit: for spelling 'the' wrong in the second paragraph lol
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kinglochness
Footballguy
'LHUCKS said:
griff321
Footballguy
No alias here. I guess I'm just not e-famous enough for you to notice my posting, plus I've been more of a lurker then a poster in the past.I carry no personal grudge against LHUCKS and have even agreed with him on other topics. If he made a well thought out post then I'd jump on the bandwagon, but that doesn't exactly seem to be his style. The spirit of the topic is a great one, but his analysis is unreal terribad and his manner of response to any dissent is troll like. If people want they can follow that advice like sheep. All I'm saying is take a second and sort out the facts from the BS and think for yourself. 
monsterofmidway
Footballguy
RB- Grant he comes back into a RBBC situation. never one to want get into that with such a high pick (1 or 2)
WR- Brandon Lloyd switching to a power running game. His game is limited to late 4th qtr catches. Since he went and delivered his all time high, it's time he gets hurt like he always has in the past and disappears
Boldin - what happened to this guy? won't risk a 3 or 4 rnd pick on him. somebody else can take him that high
Sid Rice - signs contract that delivers him into ultimate oblivion T. Jackson? look at his accuracy rate and watch those balls sail over his head. I hope his contract makes him happy. maybe a WR#5 might be worth it
TE's - Owen Daniels might be a bit high considering his injury history
WR- Brandon Lloyd switching to a power running game. His game is limited to late 4th qtr catches. Since he went and delivered his all time high, it's time he gets hurt like he always has in the past and disappears
Boldin - what happened to this guy? won't risk a 3 or 4 rnd pick on him. somebody else can take him that high
Sid Rice - signs contract that delivers him into ultimate oblivion T. Jackson? look at his accuracy rate and watch those balls sail over his head. I hope his contract makes him happy. maybe a WR#5 might be worth it
TE's - Owen Daniels might be a bit high considering his injury history
Tanner9919
Footballguy
LHUCKSnice topic, I agree with the majority of the players you've mentioned,but can't get behind your analysis of Witten..of those other TE's you've mentioned, sure, each 'can' be the top TE in football, but none of them have been yet...Witten , year in and year out, produces top 5 TE numbers..he has 81+ receptions in 5 of his 8 NFL seasons.in 3 of the last 4 seasons, Witten has caught 94 or more passes, had three 1,000 yard seasons, and avg'd over 11 yards per reception..ok sure he's not a TD magnet, but neither is Winslow, who through 6 NFL seasons in which he's actually played, has recorded 21 total TDs, never scoring more that 5 TDs in a given season.in only two of his 6 NFL seasons in which he actually played, has Winslow caught more than 80 balls..he avg's 71 recs, 804 yards, 4.2 TDs/yr (if we dismiss his 5 recs in 2004 and count full seasons only..)he also missed the entire 2005 season and 6 games in 2008.one thing you can't put a price on is that Witten never misses a game, and you can't say that about Winslow, Finley,Clark, Gates, etc..every year we hear the same old line about Witten - too many mouths to feed in Dallas, Dez, Austin, etc - and yet seemingly every year (especially 3 of last 4 seasons) Witten records 90+ recs,1000+ yards, and roughly 5 TDs..so how exactly does he actually record his best season as a pro on a team with a backup QB( Kitna) and with emerging 'stars' like Dez and Austin? your points about the other TE's would work if, and only if, they actually played full 16 game schedules ( even Clark has problems staying healthy and is one hit away from yet another concussion)based on his reliability he deserves to be the #1 TE in FF..'LHUCKS said:so you really don't disagree with any except for Witten.'johnb said:
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The Gunslinger
Footballguy
Can only agree with Gore and Desean.I think Fitz and S Jax are the most undervalued with MJD not far behind. All 3 are slipping to Rd 2 at least and all 3 could easily finish #1 at their position in 2011'argamath said:
Banger
Footballguy
he certainly has more risk than Rodgers (injury risk) but his upside is also greater. Just depends on your strategy. Although with Rodgers concussion issues he may be a hit away from a long term injury as well. With Vick though I think you do need to grab a decent backup or cuff with VY (although I'm taking a wait and see approach here to see how he picks up the offense).'LHUCKS said:
fightingillini
Footballguy
Agree on Schaub. Foster seriously eats into Schaub's TD potential. Still a solid QB, but I would rather wait a little for Freeman or Bradford.Disagree on Charles. He could be the #1RB at the end of the year. Good chance at 2000 all purpose yards. Harder schedule could make Charles have to catch more passes, so he could catch 60+ passes this year. Well worth the #4 overall pick.'LHUCKS said:
Disagree on White - Not sure what you expect from a WR.....White is a lock for 90+ catches, 1200+ yards and 9+ TDs. Sure, Megatron/Nicks/Fitzgerald have more TD upside, but I would be shocked if White wasn't a top 5 WR barring injury.
Agree on Witten. Coming off of a career year....always beware of that. I see Dez Bryant breaking out big time. While I think Romo is going to have a big year, it's highly doubtful that all of Witten, Austin and Bryant will get 1000 yards.....so one of them is going to bust....I think it will be Witten. Agree 100% on waiting for a TE.
smackdaddies
Footballguy
Four games is more than enough to ignore a careers worth of work. Just ask lhuckSTER.'PizzaDeliveryGuy said:
smackdaddies
Footballguy
So that this conversation actually has any meaning, which ADP list are you using to compare?
Monsterofthemidway thinks Grant is overrated. I see him going these days about #25 rb off the boards - that's value. I don't see any serious trends of him going anywhere near the top 12 rb off the board these days
Monsterofthemidway thinks Grant is overrated. I see him going these days about #25 rb off the boards - that's value. I don't see any serious trends of him going anywhere near the top 12 rb off the board these days
fightingillini
Footballguy
Some of my other thoughts:
1) QB - Matt Ryan - like him as an NFL QB, but he's overrated in fantasy. I see ATL leaning on Turner for one more year while Turner still has some left in the tank. There could be some growing pains between Ryan and Julio Jones. I would rather form a QBBC with a couple of Freeman/Flacco/Cutler/Stafford/Bradford than to rely on Ryan as my everyweek starter.
2) RB - MJD - too much injury risk, JAX passing game appears to be in disarray, I don't see the days when MJD was a lock for 13+ TDs. Buyer beware there
3) WR - Agree with many regarding DeSean Jackson. Just doesn't catch enough passes for me to rely on him as my WR1. I wouldn't be shocked if Maclin outperformed him. Also you can almost be certain that Vick will miss some time during the year.....
4) TE - Dallas Clark - Tamme showed that he can contribute at TE, so I would think that IND will be cautious with Clark so that he stays healthy throughout the year. Tamme should eat into his production enough to make Clark overvalued as a top TE coming off the board.
1) QB - Matt Ryan - like him as an NFL QB, but he's overrated in fantasy. I see ATL leaning on Turner for one more year while Turner still has some left in the tank. There could be some growing pains between Ryan and Julio Jones. I would rather form a QBBC with a couple of Freeman/Flacco/Cutler/Stafford/Bradford than to rely on Ryan as my everyweek starter.
2) RB - MJD - too much injury risk, JAX passing game appears to be in disarray, I don't see the days when MJD was a lock for 13+ TDs. Buyer beware there
3) WR - Agree with many regarding DeSean Jackson. Just doesn't catch enough passes for me to rely on him as my WR1. I wouldn't be shocked if Maclin outperformed him. Also you can almost be certain that Vick will miss some time during the year.....
4) TE - Dallas Clark - Tamme showed that he can contribute at TE, so I would think that IND will be cautious with Clark so that he stays healthy throughout the year. Tamme should eat into his production enough to make Clark overvalued as a top TE coming off the board.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Peyton Manning?
He's probably the safest player in fantasy football history. Peyton will be top 5 until he decides to retire.
He's probably the safest player in fantasy football history. Peyton will be top 5 until he decides to retire.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
nice post I share similiar feelings on those guys........1. Ryan: I would lve to have Ryan QB'ing my NFL team, but not my fantasy team....have a feeling Ben, Stafford, Bradford, Eli, and even the likes of Freeman and Cutler to outproduce him fantasy wise....will be looking to team one of those guys up with Tebow....seeing Ryan go before Ben is surprising...2. Charles: Die hard KC fan here but I think it is going to be a long year for all KC offensive players....that schedule is brutal....and this discussion is talking about redraft, so with that in mind, KC schedule weeks 11-15 is not friendly when you are looking at ending your season and starting your playoffs.....I think Charles may be one of the top 3 RB's in the league, but I do not think he will be a guy that will help you win your league this year....Cassel is a below average QB IMO and scares nobody....a decline by him and Bowe could clog things up for Charles..3. Bowe: see above....I will be very happy to see other owners chasing last years stats....4. TE: don't feel strongly about anyone here although I do think Gates is risky as hiogh as he is going and I would rather wait and snag Graham....I think Gore, McFad, and Turner will underperform their draft position, while Rice and Mendy with their schedules will out perform their drafts spots....I also think Hillis isn't being given enough credit nor S Jax....
notdarkyet
Footballguy
QB - Peyton Manning. I dont like the neck surgery at all, and I just don't have a good feeling about the Colts as a whole. Vick is another one that scares me. Last year was just so damn good, almost anything he does will be a disappointment. And I have to believe that teams will be a lot less caught off guard with him this season and have better game plans.
RB - MJD - I just have no interest in the injury questions. Whoever it was that suggested Peterson, I don't get it. The argument that he might not live up to #2 overall numbers doesn't resonate with me. At the #1/2 slot it is about minimizing risk, and I just don't see any risk with Peterson, and I can't think of a single other RB I could say that about
WR - Vincent Jackson is probably my #1 candidate here. Guy is just volatile and seems like an unnecessary risk. If top 10 is still high enough, I am not touching Reggie Wayne, see Peyton.
TE - Dallas Clark - at 3.11, there is no reason I would take him ahead of Finley Witten or Davis. Gates (at his ADP) is another that I worry about in that last year was so good until he got hurt. I just wonder if he will ever be a completely healthy player over an entire season moving forward.
RB - MJD - I just have no interest in the injury questions. Whoever it was that suggested Peterson, I don't get it. The argument that he might not live up to #2 overall numbers doesn't resonate with me. At the #1/2 slot it is about minimizing risk, and I just don't see any risk with Peterson, and I can't think of a single other RB I could say that about
WR - Vincent Jackson is probably my #1 candidate here. Guy is just volatile and seems like an unnecessary risk. If top 10 is still high enough, I am not touching Reggie Wayne, see Peyton.
TE - Dallas Clark - at 3.11, there is no reason I would take him ahead of Finley Witten or Davis. Gates (at his ADP) is another that I worry about in that last year was so good until he got hurt. I just wonder if he will ever be a completely healthy player over an entire season moving forward.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Not to sink to LHUCKS level...but my response to that post linked multiple threads which were significantly less full of shtick and actually included analysis and statistics - started by me. He simply chose to ignore them...'LHUCKS said:
Instinctive
Footballguy
'Instinctive said:Well I'm not sure. Typically when somebody picks apart every aspect of your assertion one would respond with some time of rebuff that would re-assert the premises and back it up with evidence. Then again...I suppose your SOP is to blow off the response with "wit" (or lack thereof) and a sarcastic response. Lol. For instance, here was YOUR QUOTE regarding Charles:'LHUCKS said:
What part of your post would you like me to address...I'm busy spotting value right now.
Hmm.....looks like exactly what I said would happen, no?'LHUCKS said:I'm done responding to your posts. I don't appreciate your tone.'Instinctive said:"Defenses will get better at gameplanning (see Chris Johnson)."
To which I wondered where exactly defenses got better at gameplanning against Chris Johnson: After his 1200 yard rookie season, when he set the NFL single season record for yards from scrimmage? Or after that season when he once again went over 1600 total yards from scrimmage? To which I asserted that if defenses managed to gameplan better for Charles just like they did with Johnson (who you brought up as the comparison) then Charles would be a great pick at 4th overall.
Edit: Oh yeah, I forgot...
'Instinctive said:
Like the way you spotted Matt Leinart? Don't get me wrong it's a good thread topic, but the way you act all pretentious and narcissistic is disgusting.'LHUCKS said:
What part of your post would you like me to address...I'm busy spotting value right now.
A thread laced with d-bagery like this pops up by Lhucks every single season and it's mostly wrong by the end of the season. You have to give him credit for making people think about things like this, but think for yourself and DO NOT TAKE HIS ADVICE AT FACE VALUE! Just look up his big thread last season.
For instance he cites Roddy White because, "WR - Roddy White - ranked as high as #2, Roddy is not the redzone threat that others like Nicks/Fitz/Megatron/AJ etc. etc. are. Better in PPR leagues, but still overvalued due to limited TD ceiling. An easy pick as the most overvalued fantasy WR"
That entire piece of information is factually wrong. Roddy White is a red-zone BEAST. Only three WRs had more red-zone targets than Roddy: Danny Amendola(24), Larry Fitzgerald(24), and Lance Moore(22). Larry Fitz scored on 20.8% of those targets while Roddy scored on 23.8% of those targets. If anything Roddy will be WORSE in PPR leagues IF you feel Julio will have that big of an impact. Last season White had the highest percentage of total team targets among WRs at 31%, and he he still managed to convert 64.2% of those targets(the best among at least the top ten of guys that had the highest percentage of total team targets). If Anything having another player to take attention away from White will result in a fewer targets and receptions, but I feel his YPC avg will come back up.
(DISCLAIMER!: The one rub is that these stats don't take into account what was catchable or not and who's fault it was for the lack of conversion. If anyone can find better stats please post them.)
Then LHUCKS agrees with this pile of trash posted by Gamblin'man, "RB: Adrian Peterson - He's being drafted 1st or 2nd off the board in most drafts. 99.9% chance he doesn't finish the year that high. The O-line is getting old and declining. They have no vertical threat and probably boast the worst starting outside WRs in the NFL. This means every week this year he will see the box stacked solely to stop him. He's being drafted much to high on name recognition.
Most of that analysis is not grounded in reality. All Day has been one of the most consistent RBs in his time in the league. I think he has a higher chance at finishing at or very near his ADP than any other RB in the top 5. Last year most of the o-line played all or most of the season with very bad injuries and it showed with the lack of experienced depth we had. Loosing Sully in preseason really hurt any continuity the unit had. Hutch is getting older(33) along with McKinnie(31), however Loadholt(25) and Sullivan(25) needed to just stay healthy and not regress. They did neither, but they do have talent. We had less of a vertical threat last season and teams have been stacking the box since AD entered the league yet he continues to be one of the very best among his peers.
Last season proves that he can play on a garbage team and not have his typical burst and still be a stud.
Hmm...SOP again?
'Instinctive said:
It's hilarious to see a guy who COULD be so helpful to the SP simply ignore analysis in favor of shtick. It's actually a little bit sad, because the level of shtickiness required without actually making a decent response probably takes a decent amount of intelligence. If only that were directed at posting something useful...
Touchdown There
Footballguy
LHUCKS threads are the best. I appreciate his ability to get everyone into the discussion with passion. Only one thing I want to add to LHUCKS logic. There is no "Finley hate" on this board. He has Chuck Norris powers around here. What you are missing is the nature of last years injury. He literally tore his hamstring off the bone behind his knee. I like his dedication to recovery in the offseason, but his weight loss is indicative of the serious nature of last years injury, not that he is "leaner and faster".
I expect to see hamstring issues all year for Finley. Witten is reliable and healthy.
I expect to see hamstring issues all year for Finley. Witten is reliable and healthy.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
fightingillini
Footballguy
What I am seeing is that the WRs with ADPs between WR8-13 (Wallace, Austin, VJackson, Bowe, DJackson, Welker) are getting some votes as to most overvalued. You can make an argument for each one of these guys as overvalued. Each one of these guys has some risk and I would not be really happy with any of them as my WR1. Out of these guys, I like VJax the best.
I think it's imperative to get one of the top 7WRs this year to anchor your WRs.
I think it's imperative to get one of the top 7WRs this year to anchor your WRs.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
I would agree to this as well , I love me some Mike Wallace but hes anything but a sure thing.adrenaline
Footballguy
QB Drew Brees - A lot of changes around him on offense. Also a lot of injury concerns, Colston coming back from 5th knee surgery, Meachem coming back from ankle surgery & Brees battled a knee injury of his own at the end of last season.
RB LeSean McCoy - History says he's not likely to repeat his 78 receptions, going to be a lot of disappointed owners watching Vick run in his TDs.
WR Dez Bryant - Romo has chemistry with Austin & Witten, I don't think there are going to be enough balls to go around to make the 3rd option as beastly as some expect.
TE Dallas Clark - Quite frankly there are reasons to be concerned with most of the top bunch. I'm going with Clark because he's the oldest & has a more than capable backup.
RB LeSean McCoy - History says he's not likely to repeat his 78 receptions, going to be a lot of disappointed owners watching Vick run in his TDs.
WR Dez Bryant - Romo has chemistry with Austin & Witten, I don't think there are going to be enough balls to go around to make the 3rd option as beastly as some expect.
TE Dallas Clark - Quite frankly there are reasons to be concerned with most of the top bunch. I'm going with Clark because he's the oldest & has a more than capable backup.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Witten's last two years with Romo2009 - 1030 yards 2 TDs2010 - 900 yards 3-4 TDs (extrapolated full season using first six weeks when Romo played)LHUCKSnice topic, I agree with the majority of the players you've mentioned,but can't get behind your analysis of Witten..of those other TE's you've mentioned, sure, each 'can' be the top TE in football, but none of them have been yet...Witten , year in and year out, produces top 5 TE numbers..he has 81+ receptions in 5 of his 8 NFL seasons.in 3 of the last 4 seasons, Witten has caught 94 or more passes, had three 1,000 yard seasons, and avg'd over 11 yards per reception..ok sure he's not a TD magnet, but neither is Winslow, who through 6 NFL seasons in which he's actually played, has recorded 21 total TDs, never scoring more that 5 TDs in a given season.in only two of his 6 NFL seasons in which he actually played, has Winslow caught more than 80 balls..he avg's 71 recs, 804 yards, 4.2 TDs/yr (if we dismiss his 5 recs in 2004 and count full seasons only..)he also missed the entire 2005 season and 6 games in 2008.one thing you can't put a price on is that Witten never misses a game, and you can't say that about Winslow, Finley,Clark, Gates, etc..every year we hear the same old line about Witten - too many mouths to feed in Dallas, Dez, Austin, etc - and yet seemingly every year (especially 3 of last 4 seasons) Witten records 90+ recs,1000+ yards, and roughly 5 TDs..so how exactly does he actually record his best season as a pro on a team with a backup QB( Kitna) and with emerging 'stars' like Dez and Austin? your points about the other TE's would work if, and only if, they actually played full 16 game schedules ( even Clark has problems staying healthy and is one hit away from yet another concussion)based on his reliability he deserves to be the #1 TE in FF..'LHUCKS said:so you really don't disagree with any except for Witten.'johnb said:
smackdaddies
Footballguy
With a current ADP of 67, Schaub is NOT being overvalued. In fact if I got him there I would be very happy
