mrharrier's Top 75 for Redraft (1 Viewer)

[10993]

Since it appears that rankings season has begun, the following is my Top 75 players for redraft in a 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE league. I will be periodically redoing these rankings, and broadening them past 75, throughout the offseason as new information becomes available. At any given time, the day that these rankings are issued is the only day they are valid for as a drafting point. New information changes things quickly.1 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB2 Alexander, Shaun SEA RB3 McAllister, Deuce NOS RB4 Jones, Kevin DET RB5 Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB6 Jackson, Steven STL RB7 Manning, Peyton IND QB8 McGahee, Willis BUF RB9 Green, Ahman GBP RB10 Lewis, Jamal BAL RB11 Portis, Clinton WAS RB12 Davis, Domanick HOU RB13 James, Edgerrin IND RB14 Holmes, Priest KCC RB15 Johnson, Chad CIN WR16 Bell, Tatum DEN RB17 Owens, Terrell PHI WR18 Johnson, Rudi CIN RB19 McNabb, Donovan PHI QB20 Brown, Ronnie FA RB21 Holt, Torry STL WR22 Johnson, Andre HOU WR23 Moss, Randy OAK WR24 Jordan, Lamont OAK RB25 Benson, Cedric FA RB26 Barber, Tiki NYG RB27 Harrison, Marvin IND WR28 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB29 Brown, Chris TEN RB30 Gates, Antonio SDC TE31 Jones, Julius DAL RB32 Walker, Javon GBP WR33 Horn, Joe NOS WR34 Martin, Curtis NYJ RB35 Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE36 Bulger, Marc STL QB37 Wayne, Reggie IND WR38 Vick, Michael ATL QB39 Foster, De'shaun CAR RB40 Williams, Cadillac FA RB41 Taylor, Fred JAC RB42 Clayton, Michael TBB WR43 Dillon, Corey NEP RB44 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR45 Williams, Roy DET WR46 Heap, Todd BAL TE47 Boldin, Anquan ARI WR48 Burleson, Nate MIN WR49 Edwards, Braylon FA WR50 Johnson, Larry KCC RB51 Witten, Jason DAL TE52 Smith, Steve CAR WR53 Evans, Lee BUF WR54 Winslow, Kellen CLE TE55 Dunn, Warrick ATL RB56 Ward, Hines PIT WR57 Staley, Duce PIT RB58 Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR59 Chambers, Chris MIA WR60 Branch, Deion NEP WR61 Green, Trent KCC QB62 Crumpler, Alge ATL TE63 Smith, Onterrio MIN RB64 Delhomme, Jake CAR QB65 Henry, Travis BUF RB66 Jones, Thomas CHI RB67 Colbert, Keary CAR WR68 Suggs, Lee CLE RB69 Shockey, Jeremy NYG TE70 Bruce, Isaac STL WR71 Brady, Tom NEP QB72 Lelie, Ashley DEN WR73 Bennett, Drew TEN WR74 Jackson, Darrell SEA WR75 Williams, Mike FA WR

 

[10993]

By position:5 Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB7 Manning, Peyton IND QB19 McNabb, Donovan PHI QB36 Bulger, Marc STL QB38 Vick, Michael ATL QB61 Green, Trent KCC QB64 Delhomme, Jake CAR QB71 Brady, Tom NEP QB1 Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB2 Alexander, Shaun SEA RB3 McAllister, Deuce NOS RB4 Jones, Kevin DET RB6 Jackson, Steven STL RB8 McGahee, Willis BUF RB9 Green, Ahman GBP RB10 Lewis, Jamal BAL RB11 Portis, Clinton WAS RB12 Davis, Domanick HOU RB13 James, Edgerrin IND RB14 Holmes, Priest KCC RB16 Bell, Tatum DEN RB18 Johnson, Rudi CIN RB20 Brown, Ronnie FA RB24 Jordan, Lamont OAK RB25 Benson, Cedric FA RB26 Barber, Tiki NYG RB28 Westbrook, Brian PHI RB29 Brown, Chris TEN RB31 Jones, Julius DAL RB34 Martin, Curtis NYJ RB39 Foster, De'shaun CAR RB40 Williams, Cadillac FA RB41 Taylor, Fred JAC RB43 Dillon, Corey NEP RB50 Johnson, Larry KCC RB55 Dunn, Warrick ATL RB57 Staley, Duce PIT RB63 Smith, Onterrio MIN RB65 Henry, Travis BUF RB66 Jones, Thomas CHI RB68 Suggs, Lee CLE RB15 Johnson, Chad CIN WR17 Owens, Terrell PHI WR21 Holt, Torry STL WR22 Johnson, Andre HOU WR23 Moss, Randy OAK WR27 Harrison, Marvin IND WR32 Walker, Javon GBP WR33 Horn, Joe NOS WR37 Wayne, Reggie IND WR42 Clayton, Michael TBB WR44 Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR45 Williams, Roy DET WR47 Boldin, Anquan ARI WR48 Burleson, Nate MIN WR49 Edwards, Braylon FA WR52 Smith, Steve CAR WR53 Evans, Lee BUF WR56 Ward, Hines PIT WR58 Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR59 Chambers, Chris MIA WR60 Branch, Deion NEP WR67 Colbert, Keary CAR WR70 Bruce, Isaac STL WR72 Lelie, Ashley DEN WR73 Bennett, Drew TEN WR74 Jackson, Darrell SEA WR75 Williams, Mike FA WR30 Gates, Antonio SDC TE35 Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE46 Heap, Todd BAL TE51 Witten, Jason DAL TE54 Winslow, Kellen CLE TE62 Crumpler, Alge ATL TE69 Shockey, Jeremy NYG TE

 

[CHEFRON BOY]

You have Julius WAY TOO low my friend.

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

Are you, by chance, Kevin Jones' agent?

 

[Koya]

Looked very quickly, but Tiki again gets no respect. He was the number 1 back in many systems last year. I dont expect that again, and I think he will be overrated going into this year, but I can not see him out of the top 20, and probably top 15. I also think Lamont will go a LOT higher than that. There will be a Lamont bandwagon this year that will put last years Manlove for Barlow to shame. I wonder if the results will be as well.

 

[10993]

You have Julius WAY TOO low my friend.

I have Julius low??? Seriously?It wasn't overlooked--he's not a great RB, and he will not perform at the level people are expecting. It may be a little bit low, but he will not be anywhere near the Top 10 range people are expecting.

 

[10993]

Looked very quickly, but Tiki again gets no respect. He was the number 1 back in many systems last year. I dont expect that again, and I think he will be overrated going into this year, but I can not see him out of the top 20, and probably top 15.

I also think Lamont will go a LOT higher than that. There will be a Lamont bandwagon this year that will put last years Manlove for Barlow to shame. I wonder if the results will be as well.

I think have Tiki at 18--not out of the top 20, and muddled right in there at the top 15 cutoff.Lamont very well may go higher than that, but I think his real worth is, well, where I think it is.

 

[popeye]

You have Julius WAY TOO low my friend. 

I have Julius low??? Seriously?It wasn't overlooked--he's not a great RB, and he will not perform at the level people are expecting. It may be a little bit low, but he will not be anywhere near the Top 10 range people are expecting.

He put up top 10 numbers towards the end of last year. I'm just saying....

 

[PizzaDeliveryGuy]

I would take Manning over Culpepper.43 Dillon, Corey NEP RB29 Brown, Chris TEN RB31 Jones, Julius DAL RB66 Jones, Thomas CHI RB68 Suggs, Lee CLE RBHuh? You have CPep as the #1 QB and his top WR at #14 with no other WR from that team in the top27 at that position? I know the man runs well but unless he puts up 800/8 that can't be right.

 

[10993]

You have Julius WAY TOO low my friend.

I have Julius low??? Seriously?It wasn't overlooked--he's not a great RB, and he will not perform at the level people are expecting. It may be a little bit low, but he will not be anywhere near the Top 10 range people are expecting.

He put up top 10 numbers towards the end of last year. I'm just saying....

Yup. My same refrain from now until next season: it was against bad defenses, and he was on fresh legs when everyone else was worn down. Moreover, he's a workout warrior with his brother and David Boston, and "artificially" enhanced. He's got a horrible attitude. He is not prepared for success in the NFL.It's definitely not the conventional wisdom--but I'd be shocked if he doesn't flop, and is a backup or out of the league in 2-3 years.

 

[Burning Sensation]

You have Julius WAY TOO low my friend. 

I have Julius low??? Seriously?It wasn't overlooked--he's not a great RB, and he will not perform at the level people are expecting. It may be a little bit low, but he will not be anywhere near the Top 10 range people are expecting.

You have Lamont Jordan higher than Julius Jones, please explain.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I would take Manning over Culpepper.

43 Dillon, Corey NEP RB

29 Brown, Chris TEN RB

31 Jones, Julius DAL RB

66 Jones, Thomas CHI RB

68 Suggs, Lee CLE RB

Huh?

You have CPep as the #1 QB and his top WR at #14 with no other WR from that team in the top27 at that position? I know the man runs well but unless he puts up 800/8 that can't be right.

 

[10993]

I would take Manning over Culpepper.

43 Dillon, Corey NEP RB

29 Brown, Chris TEN RB

31 Jones, Julius DAL RB

66 Jones, Thomas CHI RB

68 Suggs, Lee CLE RB

Huh?

You have CPep as the #1 QB and his top WR at #14 with no other WR from that team in the top27 at that position? I know the man runs well but unless he puts up 800/8 that can't be right.

Thanks for responding--I appreciate the thought people are devoting.Dillon is coming off a 400 carry season with his OC gone.

Brown will do well, but should miss a couple games.

Jones I've addressed.

His brother Thomas won't fit in well with the new situation, and very well may not start.

Suggs is not as talented, and in a bad situation. Could very well be a backup.

As far as Culpepper, he will spread a lot of his offense to the TE, RBs, and WR3 and WR4. His WR2 will be on the list--either Braylon or Mike Williams, I expect.

 

[Burning Sensation]

43 Dillon, Corey NEP RB

 

[slayer666]

Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson in the top 6?Andre Johnson ranked above Randy Moss?Julius Jones @ 31?

 

[10993]

Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson in the top 6?

Andre Johnson ranked above Randy Moss?

Julius Jones @ 31?

This will be a huge breakout year for Kevin Jones and Jackson. Jackson might actually be ranked too low--in the next rankings I will probably move him over Jones.Andre is a great talent in his third year (big year historically for WR emergence), and Randy just took a huge hit in the QB and OC department.

 

[Koya]

Looked very quickly, but Tiki again gets no respect.  He was the number 1 back in many systems last year.  I dont expect that again, and I think he will be overrated going into this year, but I can not see him out of the top 20, and probably top 15.

I also think Lamont will go a LOT higher than that.  There will be a Lamont bandwagon this year that will put last years Manlove for Barlow to shame.  I wonder if the results will be as well.

I think have Tiki at 18--not out of the top 20, and muddled right in there at the top 15 cutoff.Lamont very well may go higher than that, but I think his real worth is, well, where I think it is.

I think Lamonts real worth wont be where you have him.It might be a bit lower.

Or, he could skyrocket. I think the hype will have him drafted with the expecation of that huge breakout, and I am not taking those odds myself. I remember him back at Maryland, and he does have some ability. But we saw similar touting and hype last year. achem.

For Tiki, he is top 12 RB, arguable top 10 and some have him higher. I wasnt talking about top 20 RB, Im talking overall.

 

[Koya]

re: Tiki - His QB will still be inconsistent but will be better. I expect a WR out of the draft but most importantly, the line will be considerably better than last year. Even with Tiki overated imo because of the risk, I still can not justify having him past #18 overall or so.

 

[10993]

I think Lamonts real worth wont be where you have him.

It might be a bit lower.

Or, he could skyrocket.

I don't understand--he could either flop, or will produce like crazy, but it's impossible for him to just be middle-of-the-road where I have him?

 

[Koya]

I think Lamonts real worth wont be where you have him.

It might be a bit lower. 

Or, he could skyrocket.

I don't understand--he could either flop, or will produce like crazy, but it's impossible for him to just be middle-of-the-road where I have him?

Not impossible. I just don't expect it. Lamont has very good size, will take guys on, and has a sneakily fast gear for that size back.That said, I dont know if his flashes were because he was in the change of pace roll - and like many before him, he will flop as the full time back - or if Lamont's skills that I have seen at times really come out and he surprises me.

I personally do not see much middle ground. That offensive is going to be sick. If they can give Kerry enough time in the pocket, Ds will have to bring in nickel and dime packages with those WRs and two or three guys on moss - plus a GREAT number two (and not good number one) Porter. I can see Lamont in the defensive backfield against small DBs often.

So, will he capitalize in what will be a hell of an offense, or will he flop. Lets not forget Norv Turner is the coach. The RB will get his if he produces.

 

[10993]

re: Tiki - His QB will still be inconsistent but will be better. I expect a WR out of the draft but most importantly, the line will be considerably better than last year.

Even with Tiki overated imo because of the risk, I still can not justify having him past #18 overall or so.

I think last year was clearly an aberration. He played fantastically, but now he is another year older, and they will have more weapons available, and trust their QB more to make plays--or challenge him to do so in order to help him develop.

 

[zoonation]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)Based on what??????????????????Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

 

[10993]

I think Lamonts real worth wont be where you have him.

It might be a bit lower.

Or, he could skyrocket.

I don't understand--he could either flop, or will produce like crazy, but it's impossible for him to just be middle-of-the-road where I have him?

Not impossible. I just don't expect it. Lamont has very good size, will take guys on, and has a sneakily fast gear for that size back.That said, I dont know if his flashes were because he was in the change of pace roll - and like many before him, he will flop as the full time back - or if Lamont's skills that I have seen at times really come out and he surprises me.

I personally do not see much middle ground. That offensive is going to be sick. If they can give Kerry enough time in the pocket, Ds will have to bring in nickel and dime packages with those WRs and two or three guys on moss - plus a GREAT number two (and not good number one) Porter. I can see Lamont in the defensive backfield against small DBs often.

So, will he capitalize in what will be a hell of an offense, or will he flop. Lets not forget Norv Turner is the coach. The RB will get his if he produces.

That makes zero logical sense. I mean, it's nice for a rhetorical standpoint, but in real life people can have good games and then not as good games. People can miss a game or two. They can depend a little bit more on the pass with the 3 good WRs they have. He can average 4.0 YPC rather than 4.5 YPC.It's perfectly possible for Lamont Jordan to be a middle-of-the-road RB. And he will be.

 

[Koya]

re: Tiki - His QB will still be inconsistent but will be better.  I expect a WR out of the draft but most importantly, the line will be considerably better than last year.

Even with Tiki overated imo because of the risk, I still can not justify having him past #18 overall or so.

I think last year was clearly an aberration. He played fantastically, but now he is another year older, and they will have more weapons available, and trust their QB more to make plays--or challenge him to do so in order to help him develop.

I remember going into last year and looking at the numbers. I was never a Tiki fan (fantasy wise, that is) but saw that he averaged something like 1700-2000 total yards a season with like 8 avg TDs and realized... this guy as a #2 really has some value. In large part because many like you - and like me until last year - for whatever reason also think Tiki is a fluke. If you look at his last 5 seasons, he is a yards MONSTER every year, and a good shot for more TDs than you think.

 

[Koya]

I think Lamonts real worth wont be where you have him.

It might be a bit lower. 

Or, he could skyrocket.

I don't understand--he could either flop, or will produce like crazy, but it's impossible for him to just be middle-of-the-road where I have him?

Not impossible. I just don't expect it. Lamont has very good size, will take guys on, and has a sneakily fast gear for that size back.That said, I dont know if his flashes were because he was in the change of pace roll - and like many before him, he will flop as the full time back - or if Lamont's skills that I have seen at times really come out and he surprises me.

I personally do not see much middle ground. That offensive is going to be sick. If they can give Kerry enough time in the pocket, Ds will have to bring in nickel and dime packages with those WRs and two or three guys on moss - plus a GREAT number two (and not good number one) Porter. I can see Lamont in the defensive backfield against small DBs often.

So, will he capitalize in what will be a hell of an offense, or will he flop. Lets not forget Norv Turner is the coach. The RB will get his if he produces.

That makes zero logical sense. I mean, it's nice for a rhetorical standpoint, but in real life people can have good games and then not as good games. People can miss a game or two. They can depend a little bit more on the pass with the 3 good WRs they have. He can average 4.0 YPC rather than 4.5 YPC.It's perfectly possible for Lamont Jordan to be a middle-of-the-road RB. And he will be.

Of course it is possible. I dont expect it, is all.

 

[10993]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin will be splitting carries or games with Blaylock by the end of the year, or Herm will spell and split the load more throughout the season to keep Martin at least viable for the playoffs. Most of Martin's big performances (though not all of them) were at the beginning of the year last year.With older backs, when the dropoff comes, it comes hard. Witness Faulk and George.

 

[10993]

re: Tiki - His QB will still be inconsistent but will be better. I expect a WR out of the draft but most importantly, the line will be considerably better than last year.

Even with Tiki overated imo because of the risk, I still can not justify having him past #18 overall or so.

I think last year was clearly an aberration. He played fantastically, but now he is another year older, and they will have more weapons available, and trust their QB more to make plays--or challenge him to do so in order to help him develop.

I remember going into last year and looking at the numbers. I was never a Tiki fan (fantasy wise, that is) but saw that he averaged something like 1700-2000 total yards a season with like 8 avg TDs and realized... this guy as a #2 really has some value. In large part because many like you - and like me until last year - for whatever reason also think Tiki is a fluke. If you look at his last 5 seasons, he is a yards MONSTER every year, and a good shot for more TDs than you think.

I don't think Tiki in general is a fluke--I think for years, he was underrated. I just think his performance last year was an aberration, and plus he's another year older. I expect he will be very productive, and right there in the mix at RB15. He won't be top 10 again.

 

[zoonation]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low.  If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin will be splitting carries or games with Blaylock by the end of the year, or Herm will spell and split the load more throughout the season to keep Martin at least viable for the playoffs.

Wrong.Blaylock will be the backup, the same way he was before Priest got hurt. I know fantasy owners don't think so, but CuMart is considered an elite back in the NFL, and Blaylock isn't going to change that this coming year. I see Blaylock in a Lamont-type role, spelling Martin occassionally to keep him fresh.

No chance on an equal splitting of carries IMO.

 

[David Yudkin]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin has hit both those milestones in the same season only 3 times in 10 seasons.

 

[Koya]

| 2000 nyg | 16 | 213 1006 4.7 8 | 70 719 10.3 1 || 2001 nyg | 14 | 166 865 5.2 4 | 72 577 8.0 0 || 2002 nyg | 16 | 303 1386 4.6 11 | 69 597 8.7 0 || 2003 nyg | 16 | 278 1216 4.4 2 | 69 461 6.7 1 || 2004 nyg | 16 | 322 1518 4.7 13 | 52 578 11.1 2 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 5 yr avg.| 122 | ....................4.7 7.6 | 66 586 8.8 .8Lets see how that formats, but as I said, we averages 1200 yards rushing and almost 600 more yards receiving over the last 5 years. Over the last three, that is more like 1350 rushing plus 550 receiving. (that is a 1900 total yard three year average). Over the last 5, up and down but averages 8 TDs a year. If the offense scores, Tiki will get his. He is yards in the bank. Ad all those recepts in pt per recept leagues and you have something very valuable imo.

 

[ravnzfan]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

this ranking, with Jordan gone...hmmm

guess CMart aged 6 yrs this off season

 

[10993]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin will be splitting carries or games with Blaylock by the end of the year, or Herm will spell and split the load more throughout the season to keep Martin at least viable for the playoffs.

Wrong.Blaylock will be the backup, the same way he was before Priest got hurt. I know fantasy owners don't think so, but CuMart is considered an elite back in the NFL, and Blaylock isn't going to change that this coming year. I see Blaylock in a Lamont-type role, spelling Martin occassionally to keep him fresh.

No chance on an equal splitting of carries IMO.

I didn't say equal, I said splitting--and enough to drop Martin's performance expectations. As far as him being considered an "elite" back, witness Yudkin's above-posted evidence. He's a good back. He's not elite.

 

[Koya]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low.  If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin will be splitting carries or games with Blaylock by the end of the year, or Herm will spell and split the load more throughout the season to keep Martin at least viable for the playoffs. Most of Martin's big performances (though not all of them) were at the beginning of the year last year.With older backs, when the dropoff comes, it comes hard. Witness Faulk and George.

As a NYer.. Giants fan but see the Jets constantly... I can not disagree more. Curtis will be the full time back. They talked about incorporating Lamont "more than last year" for 3 years now. With Herm there, and Curtis able to play, Curtis is the back. I dont see any evidence that would tell me that changes. Even if this is "the year" Curtis falls off the earth, he will get the year with Herm.

 

[10993]

| 2000 nyg | 16 | 213 1006 4.7 8 | 70 719 10.3 1 |

| 2001 nyg | 14 | 166 865 5.2 4 | 72 577 8.0 0 |

| 2002 nyg | 16 | 303 1386 4.6 11 | 69 597 8.7 0 |

| 2003 nyg | 16 | 278 1216 4.4 2 | 69 461 6.7 1 |

| 2004 nyg | 16 | 322 1518 4.7 13 | 52 578 11.1 2 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

| 5 yr avg.| 122 | ....................4.7 7.6 | 66 586 8.8 .8

Lets see how that formats, but as I said, we averages 1200 yards rushing and almost 600 more yards receiving over the last 5 years. Over the last three, that is more like 1350 rushing plus 550 receiving. (that is a 1900 total yard three year average). Over the last 5, up and down but averages 8 TDs a year. If the offense scores, Tiki will get his. He is yards in the bank. Ad all those recepts in pt per recept leagues and you have something very valuable imo.

These rankings aren't for PPR leagues--he would be higher in those. I think if you look at his performance before last year's aberration and the history of aging backs, an expectation of 1100/450/8TD sounds about right.

 

[slayer666]

This will be a huge breakout year for Kevin Jones and Jackson. Jackson might actually be ranked too low--in the next rankings I will probably move him over Jones.

Andre is a great talent in his third year (big year historically for WR emergence), and Randy just took a huge hit in the QB and OC department.

I like both Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson, but I just can't see myself picking either of them with the first 6 picks in the first round of a re-draft. I just don't trust either of them to be foundation type players for my fantasy teams in 2005. There are safer choices available early in the first round who have proven track records.As for Andre Johnson over Randy Moss... you are likely the only FFler in the free world that would make that decision.

 

[10993]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin will be splitting carries or games with Blaylock by the end of the year, or Herm will spell and split the load more throughout the season to keep Martin at least viable for the playoffs. Most of Martin's big performances (though not all of them) were at the beginning of the year last year.With older backs, when the dropoff comes, it comes hard. Witness Faulk and George.

As a NYer.. Giants fan but see the Jets constantly... I can not disagree more. Curtis will be the full time back. They talked about incorporating Lamont "more than last year" for 3 years now. With Herm there, and Curtis able to play, Curtis is the back. I dont see any evidence that would tell me that changes. Even if this is "the year" Curtis falls off the earth, he will get the year with Herm.

Every back splits carries. The only question is how much. It was important for the Jets to bring in a capable backup, especially witnessing how Martin tired toward the end of last year, on the whole. They did that, and Blaylock will help keep Martin viable for another 1-2 years.

 

[10993]

This will be a huge breakout year for Kevin Jones and Jackson. Jackson might actually be ranked too low--in the next rankings I will probably move him over Jones.

Andre is a great talent in his third year (big year historically for WR emergence), and Randy just took a huge hit in the QB and OC department.

I like both Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson, but I just can't see myself picking either of them with the first 6 picks in the first round of a re-draft. I just don't trust either of them to be foundation type players for my fantasy teams in 2005. There are safer choices available early in the first round who have proven track records.As for Andre Johnson over Randy Moss... you are likely the only FFler in the free world that would make that decision.

"Safe" choices like Deuce, Jamal Lewis, Portis, and Ahman? How did those "safe" choices work out last year? No choice is safe--not even LT.

 

[slayer666]

"Safe" choices like Deuce, Jamal Lewis, Portis, and Ahman? How did those "safe" choices work out last year? No choice is safe--not even LT.

I said safer not safe.You are absolutely correct there is no sure thing in FF. For the record I was able to procure Shaun Alexander (in most of my leagues) over the choices you mentioned as I had him rated as my #2 RB in 2004.

 

[Koya]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low.  If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin will be splitting carries or games with Blaylock by the end of the year, or Herm will spell and split the load more throughout the season to keep Martin at least viable for the playoffs. Most of Martin's big performances (though not all of them) were at the beginning of the year last year.With older backs, when the dropoff comes, it comes hard. Witness Faulk and George.

As a NYer.. Giants fan but see the Jets constantly... I can not disagree more. Curtis will be the full time back. They talked about incorporating Lamont "more than last year" for 3 years now. With Herm there, and Curtis able to play, Curtis is the back. I dont see any evidence that would tell me that changes. Even if this is "the year" Curtis falls off the earth, he will get the year with Herm.

Every back splits carries. The only question is how much. It was important for the Jets to bring in a capable backup, especially witnessing how Martin tired toward the end of last year, on the whole. They did that, and Blaylock will help keep Martin viable for another 1-2 years.

Yes. But the vast majority of the carries are going to Cumar.

 

[10993]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin will be splitting carries or games with Blaylock by the end of the year, or Herm will spell and split the load more throughout the season to keep Martin at least viable for the playoffs. Most of Martin's big performances (though not all of them) were at the beginning of the year last year.With older backs, when the dropoff comes, it comes hard. Witness Faulk and George.

As a NYer.. Giants fan but see the Jets constantly... I can not disagree more. Curtis will be the full time back. They talked about incorporating Lamont "more than last year" for 3 years now. With Herm there, and Curtis able to play, Curtis is the back. I dont see any evidence that would tell me that changes. Even if this is "the year" Curtis falls off the earth, he will get the year with Herm.

Every back splits carries. The only question is how much. It was important for the Jets to bring in a capable backup, especially witnessing how Martin tired toward the end of last year, on the whole. They did that, and Blaylock will help keep Martin viable for another 1-2 years.

Yes. But the vast majority of the carries are going to Cumar.

Did Herm tell you that himself, or will you be making the coaching decisions this year?

 

[Koya]

| 2000 nyg |  16 |  213  1006    4.7    8 |    70    719  10.3    1 |

| 2001 nyg |  14 |  166    865    5.2    4 |    72    577  8.0    0 |

| 2002 nyg |  16 |  303  1386    4.6  11 |    69    597  8.7    0 |

| 2003 nyg |  16 |  278  1216    4.4    2 |    69    461  6.7    1 |

| 2004 nyg |  16 |  322  1518    4.7  13 |    52    578  11.1    2 |

+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

|  5 yr avg.| 122 |  ....................4.7  7.6 |  66  586    8.8  .8

Lets see how that formats, but as I said, we averages 1200 yards rushing and almost 600 more yards receiving over the last 5 years.  Over the last three, that is more like 1350 rushing plus 550 receiving.  (that is a 1900 total yard three year average).  Over the last 5, up and down but averages 8 TDs a year.  If the offense scores, Tiki will get his.  He is yards in the bank.  Ad all those recepts in pt per recept leagues and you have something very valuable imo.

These rankings aren't for PPR leagues--he would be higher in those. I think if you look at his performance before last year's aberration and the history of aging backs, an expectation of 1100/450/8TD sounds about right.

If you discount last year (why you would discount a year I dont know), and project for a full year (assuming no injury), then you couldnt expect less than 1200, 550 yards - the TDs are harder to predict and more team dependent. 1750 yards as a start is fantastic. He has proven that he can do around 2000 yards and 10 TDs though... more than once.

 

[Koya]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low.  If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin will be splitting carries or games with Blaylock by the end of the year, or Herm will spell and split the load more throughout the season to keep Martin at least viable for the playoffs. Most of Martin's big performances (though not all of them) were at the beginning of the year last year.With older backs, when the dropoff comes, it comes hard. Witness Faulk and George.

As a NYer.. Giants fan but see the Jets constantly... I can not disagree more. Curtis will be the full time back. They talked about incorporating Lamont "more than last year" for 3 years now. With Herm there, and Curtis able to play, Curtis is the back. I dont see any evidence that would tell me that changes. Even if this is "the year" Curtis falls off the earth, he will get the year with Herm.

Every back splits carries. The only question is how much. It was important for the Jets to bring in a capable backup, especially witnessing how Martin tired toward the end of last year, on the whole. They did that, and Blaylock will help keep Martin viable for another 1-2 years.

Yes. But the vast majority of the carries are going to Cumar.

Did Herm tell you that himself, or will you be making the coaching decisions this year?

Going off a LOT of evidence. LOTS and LOTS of it. If Herman suddenly changes his whole approach to the game, to players, his loyalty and how he calls a game - which granted, has more of a chance to happen with a new coordinator, I give you that - then your point is more valid. But unless training camp really proves me wrong, I have to go with years of evidence.

 

[David Yudkin]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low.  If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

this ranking, with Jordan gone...hmmm

guess CMart aged 6 yrs this off season

I don't see Jordan leaving having much impact on Martin. Other RB have always spelled Martin, and this year should be no different. Touches for RB other than Martin:1995: 160

1996: 171

1997: 145

1998: 152

1999: 91

2000: 159

2001: 117

2002: 168

2003: 107

2004: 163

Martin set a career high with 371 carries last year . . . how on earth could he be expected to get MORE than that at 31 or 32?

The other question I have is whether the Jets throw the ball more like they did in previous seasons. Their number of passes dropped from 496 to 438 from 2003 to 2004, while their rushing attempts increased from 409 to 527. I would guess the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

 

[10993]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin will be splitting carries or games with Blaylock by the end of the year, or Herm will spell and split the load more throughout the season to keep Martin at least viable for the playoffs. Most of Martin's big performances (though not all of them) were at the beginning of the year last year.With older backs, when the dropoff comes, it comes hard. Witness Faulk and George.

As a NYer.. Giants fan but see the Jets constantly... I can not disagree more. Curtis will be the full time back. They talked about incorporating Lamont "more than last year" for 3 years now. With Herm there, and Curtis able to play, Curtis is the back. I dont see any evidence that would tell me that changes. Even if this is "the year" Curtis falls off the earth, he will get the year with Herm.

Every back splits carries. The only question is how much. It was important for the Jets to bring in a capable backup, especially witnessing how Martin tired toward the end of last year, on the whole. They did that, and Blaylock will help keep Martin viable for another 1-2 years.

Yes. But the vast majority of the carries are going to Cumar.

Did Herm tell you that himself, or will you be making the coaching decisions this year?

Going off a LOT of evidence. LOTS and LOTS of it. If Herman suddenly changes his whole approach to the game, to players, his loyalty and how he calls a game - which granted, has more of a chance to happen with a new coordinator, I give you that - then your point is more valid. But unless training camp really proves me wrong, I have to go with years of evidence.

There is no "years" of evidence--there is last year, when they decided to lean on CuMart much harder than they usually do, with 370 carries. Show me an aging back with sporadic performance and one big year brought about by 370 carries, and I'll show you someone who will split carries more next year or not make it through the year.

 

[10993]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

this ranking, with Jordan gone...hmmm

guess CMart aged 6 yrs this off season

I don't see Jordan leaving having much impact on Martin. Other RB have always spelled Martin, and this year should be no different. Touches for RB other than Martin:1995: 160

1996: 171

1997: 145

1998: 152

1999: 91

2000: 159

2001: 117

2002: 168

2003: 107

2004: 163

Martin set a career high with 371 carries last year . . . how on earth could he be expected to get MORE than that at 31 or 32?

The other question I have is whether the Jets throw the ball more like they did in previous seasons. Their number of passes dropped from 496 to 438 from 2003 to 2004, while their rushing attempts increased from 409 to 527. I would guess the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

Great points, David. As to throwing the ball, I would expect that if Pennington's shoulder is in fact repaired, they will throw more because of that--and the upgrade from Moss to Coles will only further encourage them to do so.

 

[Koya]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low.  If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

this ranking, with Jordan gone...hmmm

guess CMart aged 6 yrs this off season

I don't see Jordan leaving having much impact on Martin. Other RB have always spelled Martin, and this year should be no different. Touches for RB other than Martin:1995: 160

1996: 171

1997: 145

1998: 152

1999: 91

2000: 159

2001: 117

2002: 168

2003: 107

2004: 163

Martin set a career high with 371 carries last year . . . how on earth could he be expected to get MORE than that at 31 or 32?

The other question I have is whether the Jets throw the ball more like they did in previous seasons. Their number of passes dropped from 496 to 438 from 2003 to 2004, while their rushing attempts increased from 409 to 527. I would guess the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

Penningtons arm will have a LOT to do with the Pass:Run ratio. Will he be 100%? He can work around his weaknesses, especially with Coles, if his arm is 100%. With an already weak arm, much less than 100% will spell a long year for the passing game IMO.

 

[zoonation]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low.  If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin has hit both those milestones in the same season only 3 times in 10 seasons.

I know you're a big stat guy, but I am basing the projection on two things:1. Quality of the NYJ O-Line

2. Minimum projected output for the Jet running game, and what I perceive CuMart's carry distribution to be; about 80% of the carries.

I really don't care about what he did in NE, or when he played hurt for all of 2003 and some of 2002.

If he's healthy, he's an extremely safe pick in the 2nd round.

 

[10993]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low. If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin has hit both those milestones in the same season only 3 times in 10 seasons.

I know you're a big stat guy, but I am basing the projection on two things:1. Quality of the NYJ O-Line

2. Minimum projected output for the Jet running game, and what I perceive CuMart's carry distribution to be; about 80% of the carries.

I really don't care about what he did in NE, or when he played hurt for all of 2003 and some of 2002.

If he's healthy, he's an extremely safe pick in the 2nd round.

At age 32, after a 370-carry season (a career high), you're expecting Martin to get 80% of the carries? Last year the Jets ran 527 times. If they run only 500 times this year, you're expecting Martin to set a new career high of 400 carries, maintaining the same level of performance?Pigs will sooner fly.

 

[David Yudkin]

An undrafted rookis (Benson) ahead of last year's rushing champ (CuMart)

Based on what??????????????????

Martin is way too low.  If he stays healthy he is a lock for 1300/10

Martin has hit both those milestones in the same season only 3 times in 10 seasons.

I know you're a big stat guy, but I am basing the projection on two things:1. Quality of the NYJ O-Line

2. Minimum projected output for the Jet running game, and what I perceive CuMart's carry distribution to be; about 80% of the carries.

I really don't care about what he did in NE, or when he played hurt for all of 2003 and some of 2002.

If he's healthy, he's an extremely safe pick in the 2nd round.

I have given no indication of where I would slot Martin . . . all I'm saying in this thread is that I suspect his productivity will go down and his workload should decrease some. I concur that if healthy and the rest of the offense sputters, he is clearly the most likely beneficiary.

 

[WhoDat]

Moreover, he's a workout warrior with his brother and David Boston, and "artificially" enhanced.

Do you have more than loose allegations to support this as fact? I am not saying you are right or wrong in your assessment nor am I naive enough to think steriods do not exist in the NFL. However, if you are going to come with that type of statement regarding a player, there needs to be more than sports talk radio, slow day of news, speculation supporting that type of remark, opinion. His attitude and academic problems at Notre Dame? Fact on the record. His association with Boston? Fact and on the record. Use of illegal training substances? Allegation and pure speculation at this point and time.I like the C. Johnson ranking. I like the aggressive S. Jackson rating too. Martz is finally weaning himself off the Faulk teat and Jackson is in a great situation. Now, if Martz would only run first and pass second things could be that much better. Good job throwing your opinions out there and putting your neck on the block.