My Case for MJD at #1 Overall (2 Viewers)

[GDogg]

What has MJD done to make you think he has that talent?Not anything amazing in YPC. 4.8 career, good, but doesn't yell out "most talented" either...Not a gargatuan pass catcher, simply above average.Great goalline back, I agree there.Never rushed for 1500 yards. I'm sorry, never rushed for over 1,000 yards. That screams talent as a RB.Never had 600 passing yards...so he isn't the most talented pass catcher either.Averages under 50 catches a year...for a huge strength, that seems a bit underwhelming for the most talented guy in the league.Not a good closer either, his worst YPC is in the 4th quarter, when it matters most. Even worse when his team is tied for the lead.What has he done that says "most talented?" Umm...oh yeah, almost nothing. He converts a high percentage of goal line looks. Is Jerome Bettis one of the most talented backs ever? TJ Duckett? LenDale White? Yeah...do you expect to receiver any more respect in thsi thread after that?

You think I'm looking for respect from you or anyone else?Based off your post, it's clear you have no idea what the word "talent" means. Jamal Lewis has rushed for over 1500 yards. I don't think he was ever one of the more talented RBs in the league.I'm almost 100% positive no RB has ever had more than 600 passing yards. I have no idea why you care about that.Averages under 50 catches, huh? Yeah, he averages 49. Why did you choose 50 as your baseline? Seems a bit arbitrary. Adrian Peterson averages 20. Does that mean he's not in the discussion for most talented RB? Only eight RBs in the league had 50 or more receptions last season. Mo Drew was one of them. Only six RBs in the league had 50 or more receptions in 2007. Only seven had 50 or more in 2006. Drew has finished 2nd, 13th and 10th, respectively, in receptions among RBs the last three years.Maurice Drew, in his 3 years in Jacksonville, has been used greatly as a short-yardage and goal line back. Do you know what that tends to do to the YPC average, particularly for a guy who isn't getting a ton of carries to begin with?In any case, I'll go back to most "talented." What has he done? That's actually pretty irrelevant to the word, "talent." Peyton Manning's not the most talented QB in the league. Neither is Tom Brady or Drew Brees. But, all three of them are among the "best" QBs.I've watched a lot of football games. College and pro. I don't stare at statistics and make judgments based off that. I use my eyes and my knowledge of football. And, Maurice Drew is the most talented RB in the NFL. He has excellent speed. He has very good vision. He's one of the best receivers for a RB. He has excellent acceleration (not as good as Peterson). He's strong. He has excellent balance. I know all of this because I actually watch football. And, I also know what the word "talent" means.

 

[SSOG]

I know the definition, thank you. Using the fact that Adrian Peterson has "never" rushed for more than a dozen TDs in his 2-year career to try to prove that he's not high-TD threat is disingenuous. As I pointed out, it's the same as saying Greg Olsen won't catch 60+ passes this year because he's "never" done it in his illustrious 2-year career.And I'll thank you not to tell me I'm wrong.

What about using the fact that Peterson splits goal line carries with Taylor 50/50? Is it disingenuous to use that fact to say that Peterson's not a high TD threat?I'm not saying that Peterson isn't capable of becoming a TD beast... I'm just saying that Peterson has not been a TD beast at any point in his career, and MJD has. I'm also saying that, for fantasy purposes, Peterson is barely the best red zone option on his own team.Since entering the league, Minnesota has given Peterson 48% of its carries inside the 10, and has never once targeted him on a pass inside the 10. Since entering the league, Jacksonville has given MJD 57% of its carries inside the 10, and he's been the target of 8 passes. MJD averages more yards per rush, more first downs per rush, and more TDs per rush inside the 10 than Peterson. The guy who stole 33% of Jacksonville's carries inside the 10 just left town, while ADP's primary competition for touches inside the 10 is still around. It's not the slightest bit careless or disingenuous to suggest that MJD is a *MUCH* bigger TD threat than Peterson.

My own preference is to trade down and take Turner. He gets no love here, but looks great to me. He outscored MJD by something like 3 FPs per game and AP by 2. Why he gets "no love" is beyond me. We have seen his talent for a long time and the offense will only be better. Forte I get. (Williams, less so). But the Burner has everything going for him and seems SAFE. And saying "never" for two seasons is MISLEADING, and if intended as such is DISINGENOUS to be sure.

"Never" isn't misleading. Do you think anyone was mislead into thinking that Peterson had been in the league for more than 2 years? This is Adrian Peterson we're talking about- everyone knows EXACTLY how long he's been in the league. All I'm saying is that if you're expecting Peterson to become a high-TD guy, you're expecting him to do something he hasn't ever done before. If you're expecting MJD to become a high-TD guy, you're just expecting business as usual.

What has MJD done to make you think he has that talent?Not anything amazing in YPC. 4.8 career, good, but doesn't yell out "most talented" either...Not a gargatuan pass catcher, simply above average.Great goalline back, I agree there.Never rushed for 1500 yards. I'm sorry, never rushed for over 1,000 yards. That screams talent as a RB.Never had 600 passing yards...so he isn't the most talented pass catcher either.Averages under 50 catches a year...for a huge strength, that seems a bit underwhelming for the most talented guy in the league.Not a good closer either, his worst YPC is in the 4th quarter, when it matters most. Even worse when his team is tied for the lead.What has he done that says "most talented?" Umm...oh yeah, almost nothing. He converts a high percentage of goal line looks. Is Jerome Bettis one of the most talented backs ever? TJ Duckett? LenDale White? Yeah...do you expect to receiver any more respect in thsi thread after that?

What makes me think MJD is the most talented back in the NFL? Two things- my eyes. Peterson's a better runner, but MJD is still one of the top 5 runners in the league, and MJD has elite receiving skills and he's an unbelievable blocker. In addition, MJD is the rare back who excels in all situations running the ball. He has no weakness in his game.If you want a statistical argument for why MJD is an elite talent... I'd be happy to provide that. His YPA numbers are handicapped by his usage patterns- you don't measure the effectiveness of a goal line or short yardage back by his YPA. MJD has a 56% conversion rate on 3rd or 4th with 3 or fewer yards to go. If you take out those 72 carries (3rd/4th down with 3 or fewer yards to go), MJD has a career ypa average of 5.00 yards per carry- that's pretty gosh darn elite. If you look only at MJD's carries that came outside of the 5 yard line, he has a ypa of 5.1 yards per attempt. The reason his ypa is "only" 4.8 is because he's so good at the goal line and in short yardage that his usage is skewing his results. It's also brought down by running behind an ATROCIOUS line last year that was wrecked by injury. It's also funny that you're not that high on a ypa of 4.8, since that was Adrian Peterson's ypa last year.Also, saying that MJD isn't the best passcatcher because he's never topped 600 receiving yards? Are you high? MJD led all RBs in receiving yards last year *as a part timer* (and finished 2nd in receptions with 62, 2 behind Forte's 64)... but I guess "first in the NFL" isn't elite enough for you. He was 6th in receiving yards in '07 (again as a part-timer). If you're into advanced stats, MJD ranked 1st in DYAR and 4th in DVOA among RBs last year. MJD is arguably the best passcatching RB in the league, with the fall of Westbrook and Tomlinson (it's between MJD, Forte, and SJax). If that's not a huge strength, then I feel sorry for every other RB in the league.So... MJD leads the league in receiving last year... he's the best goal line back in the league... he has a career ypc over 5 yards on carries that aren't either short yardage or goal line... and he's a devastating blocker. Yeah, I can see how it'd be hard to see how all of that translates into "most talented RB in the league".

 

[Instinctive]

What has MJD done to make you think he has that talent?Not anything amazing in YPC. 4.8 career, good, but doesn't yell out "most talented" either...Not a gargatuan pass catcher, simply above average.Great goalline back, I agree there.Never rushed for 1500 yards. I'm sorry, never rushed for over 1,000 yards. That screams talent as a RB.Never had 600 passing yards...so he isn't the most talented pass catcher either.Averages under 50 catches a year...for a huge strength, that seems a bit underwhelming for the most talented guy in the league.Not a good closer either, his worst YPC is in the 4th quarter, when it matters most. Even worse when his team is tied for the lead.What has he done that says "most talented?" Umm...oh yeah, almost nothing. He converts a high percentage of goal line looks. Is Jerome Bettis one of the most talented backs ever? TJ Duckett? LenDale White? Yeah...do you expect to receiver any more respect in thsi thread after that?

You think I'm looking for respect from you or anyone else?Based off your post, it's clear you have no idea what the word "talent" means. Jamal Lewis has rushed for over 1500 yards. I don't think he was ever one of the more talented RBs in the league.I'm almost 100% positive no RB has ever had more than 600 passing yards. I have no idea why you care about that.Averages under 50 catches, huh? Yeah, he averages 49. Why did you choose 50 as your baseline? Seems a bit arbitrary. Adrian Peterson averages 20. Does that mean he's not in the discussion for most talented RB? Only eight RBs in the league had 50 or more receptions last season. Mo Drew was one of them. Only six RBs in the league had 50 or more receptions in 2007. Only seven had 50 or more in 2006. Drew has finished 2nd, 13th and 10th, respectively, in receptions among RBs the last three years.Maurice Drew, in his 3 years in Jacksonville, has been used greatly as a short-yardage and goal line back. Do you know what that tends to do to the YPC average, particularly for a guy who isn't getting a ton of carries to begin with?In any case, I'll go back to most "talented." What has he done? That's actually pretty irrelevant to the word, "talent." Peyton Manning's not the most talented QB in the league. Neither is Tom Brady or Drew Brees. But, all three of them are among the "best" QBs.I've watched a lot of football games. College and pro. I don't stare at statistics and make judgments based off that. I use my eyes and my knowledge of football. And, Maurice Drew is the most talented RB in the NFL. He has excellent speed. He has very good vision. He's one of the best receivers for a RB. He has excellent acceleration (not as good as Peterson). He's strong. He has excellent balance. I know all of this because I actually watch football. And, I also know what the word "talent" means.

Peyton Manning isn't one of the most talented players in the league? Neither is Tom Brady? Dude...you don't get to be the best by not being talented. You're really digging a hole here...just for fun (or, for me to have more fun) who IS your most talented QB?You think anybody here hasn't also watched just as much football as you? You're eyes are wacked out. In need of high perscription contacts. Stats don't tell talent, but talent certainly does seem to climb to the top. Who are your top 5 most talented RBs of all time? Talent leads to results, and to say somebody is the most talented when they havent done jacks##t to prove that is ludicrous. I don't know why you bring up 2006 and 2007 reception totals except to prove my point that MJD wasn't one of those elite backs? Last season is most likely an aberration receptions-wise, as the OLine was decimated and they lost multiple receivers to injury and suspension. You have no idea what talent means and you are trying to form a semantic based, opinionated, impossible to back up with anything at all position because you know you're wrong. It's like a 2 year old saying I know every single indicator says 3+3=6, but I say it is 7 and that's what I say because I have done a lot of math and I must be right!And sorry I said passing, I think taken in context it is pretty obvious that I meant receiving yards. I guess at the time I was just so shocked by the pure stupidity of the reply that I lost my word choice focus for a minute.

 

[Instinctive]

What makes me think MJD is the most talented back in the NFL? Two things- my eyes. Peterson's a better runner, but MJD is still one of the top 5 runners in the league, and MJD has elite receiving skills and he's an unbelievable blocker. In addition, MJD is the rare back who excels in all situations running the ball. He has no weakness in his game.If you want a statistical argument for why MJD is an elite talent... I'd be happy to provide that. His YPA numbers are handicapped by his usage patterns- you don't measure the effectiveness of a goal line or short yardage back by his YPA. MJD has a 56% conversion rate on 3rd or 4th with 3 or fewer yards to go. If you take out those 72 carries (3rd/4th down with 3 or fewer yards to go), MJD has a career ypa average of 5.00 yards per carry- that's pretty gosh darn elite. If you look only at MJD's carries that came outside of the 5 yard line, he has a ypa of 5.1 yards per attempt. The reason his ypa is "only" 4.8 is because he's so good at the goal line and in short yardage that his usage is skewing his results. It's also brought down by running behind an ATROCIOUS line last year that was wrecked by injury. It's also funny that you're not that high on a ypa of 4.8, since that was Adrian Peterson's ypa last year.Also, saying that MJD isn't the best passcatcher because he's never topped 600 receiving yards? Are you high? MJD led all RBs in receiving yards last year *as a part timer* (and finished 2nd in receptions with 62, 2 behind Forte's 64)... but I guess "first in the NFL" isn't elite enough for you. He was 6th in receiving yards in '07 (again as a part-timer). If you're into advanced stats, MJD ranked 1st in DYAR and 4th in DVOA among RBs last year. MJD is arguably the best passcatching RB in the league, with the fall of Westbrook and Tomlinson (it's between MJD, Forte, and SJax). If that's not a huge strength, then I feel sorry for every other RB in the league.So... MJD leads the league in receiving last year... he's the best goal line back in the league... he has a career ypc over 5 yards on carries that aren't either short yardage or goal line... and he's a devastating blocker. Yeah, I can see how it'd be hard to see how all of that translates into "most talented RB in the league".

First off, 4.8 on 360 is different than 4.8 on 197.And I wanted to add to counter that point about how the stats don't translate to talent. If that's how you want to play it, MJD is not as talented as Tomlinson. Or Westbrook. Not that I think he is currently a worse back, just that if you want to go with the "talent is innate" argument then those guys are definitely ahead. I would say SJax is a better pass catcher, passblocker, and rusher as well.

 

[ookook]

I think many people's perceptions of RB talent are becoming increasingly driven by the scourge we call "PPR". It perturbs the ranking of RBs within position to bear less and less relevance to actual NFL value.

But hey, I am big on MJD this year. I have him improving to RB5, after S. Jackson. Actually, pretty closely tied.

You see, I prefer players who have served as a feature back to those that have NEVER.

 

[ookook]

Clearly, both MJD and Williams benifit from an offense that is not pass heavy. Let us not mistake who will put up #1 fantasy numbers with NFL talent.

 

[SSOG]

First off, 4.8 on 360 is different than 4.8 on 197.And I wanted to add to counter that point about how the stats don't translate to talent. If that's how you want to play it, MJD is not as talented as Tomlinson. Or Westbrook. Not that I think he is currently a worse back, just that if you want to go with the "talent is innate" argument then those guys are definitely ahead. I would say SJax is a better pass catcher, passblocker, and rusher as well.

Where are you getting those 360 and 197 numbers from? Peterson had 4.8 ypc on 360 carries last year. MJD has 4.8 ypc on 530 carries for his career. 360 and 530 are pretty similar sample sizes. If 4.8's not elite, then Adrian Peterson must not have been elite last season. You also ignored my point that MJD's ypc number would be much higher if not for all of his short yardage work and Jacksonville's terrible O-line last year. Fun fact- on their career carries on 1st-and-10, MJD averages 5.9 yards per carry. ADP averages 5.0.I also don't get what you're saying next. Are you saying that stats tell talent, or that stats don't tell talent? Either way, I'd agree that MJD isn't as talented as either LDT or Westy were in their prime... but he's more talented than either back is today.Also, no way is SJax a better rusher than MJD. MJD is faster and more elusive, and despite the size difference, he might even be more powerful- he certainly runs better in goal line and short yardage situations. Steven Jackson is a man among boys who simply beats people because he's bigger than they are, but MJD is a much more talented runner. He's also SJax's equal in catching and blocking. SJax is a good name to bring up, though, because I think that SJax is also one of the most talented backs in the league right now... just not as talented as MJD.

 

[Instinctive]

Where are you getting those 360 and 197 numbers from? Peterson had 4.8 ypc on 360 carries last year. MJD has 4.8 ypc on 530 carries for his career. 360 and 530 are pretty similar sample sizes. If 4.8's not elite, then Adrian Peterson must not have been elite last season. You also ignored my point that MJD's ypc number would be much higher if not for all of his short yardage work and Jacksonville's terrible O-line last year. Fun fact- on their career carries on 1st-and-10, MJD averages 5.9 yards per carry. ADP averages 5.0.I also don't get what you're saying next. Are you saying that stats tell talent, or that stats don't tell talent? Either way, I'd agree that MJD isn't as talented as either LDT or Westy were in their prime... but he's more talented than either back is today.

You can't compare 1 season of a rusher to the career of another. The comparison I amde was simply of the last season for each back. Fairly obvious.If you want to take MJD's last 363 carries (actually, I am going to use his last 364 because that encompasses his last 2 seasons and I don't have to go search for the exact yardage on a carry 363 carries ago) and compare it to Peterson's last 363 carries...Peterson: 4.8 ypcJones-Drew: 4.37 ypcIf you want to take a career ypc, Peterson is at 5.2 and MJC is at 4.8. If you want to only take ypc from the 2 seasons both have been in the league, MJD is at 4.37 and Peterson is at 5.2. Starting to see that trend? If you want to cherry pick stats, go ahead. I prefer to use the stats from the same timeframe, or all the stats, or none at all.On talent: I was making a hypothetical based on GDogg's potentially ludicrous claims of what talent is. Talent is something you are born with, in which case MJD is definitively not the most talented back in the league. Please note that isn't exactly what I think, I was just trying to step into his shoes and try to see his point of view. When I got there...it still didn't lead to the conclusion he drew.

 

[SSOG]

You can't compare 1 season of a rusher to the career of another. The comparison I amde was simply of the last season for each back. Fairly obvious.If you want to take MJD's last 363 carries (actually, I am going to use his last 364 because that encompasses his last 2 seasons and I don't have to go search for the exact yardage on a carry 363 carries ago) and compare it to Peterson's last 363 carries...Peterson: 4.8 ypcJones-Drew: 4.37 ypcIf you want to take a career ypc, Peterson is at 5.2 and MJC is at 4.8. If you want to only take ypc from the 2 seasons both have been in the league, MJD is at 4.37 and Peterson is at 5.2. Starting to see that trend? If you want to cherry pick stats, go ahead. I prefer to use the stats from the same timeframe, or all the stats, or none at all.

MJD has been playing behind a SIGNIFICANTLY worse offensive line, though. You don't think that Minnesota's offensive line would be worth .4 more yards per carry? You're also ignoring my claims that MJD's ypc totals are hurt by the fact that he's used so much in short yardage (where a 1, 2, or 3 yard carry is a huge success) and goal line situations (where it's impossible to get a carry of over 10 yards at the very most).

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I know the definition, thank you. Using the fact that Adrian Peterson has "never" rushed for more than a dozen TDs in his 2-year career to try to prove that he's not high-TD threat is disingenuous. .

I don't think that you do. Please explain how the original statement was not a straightforward statement?

Please explain how the statement wasn't candid or true?

Please explain how the statement was insincere?

As I pointed out, it's the same as saying Greg Olsen won't catch 60+ passes this year because he's "never" done it in his illustrious 2-year career

Link to where SSOG said ADP WON'T score more than 13 TDs? He didn't, so it's NOT the same as your Olsen statement. It would be the same as saying Greg Olsen hasn't caught 60+ passes in his career.

And I'll thank you not to tell me I'm wrong.

Based on what you seem to believe disingenuous means, you are wrong.

Oh, boy! Can we go back to high school stats too? Because those count as much in fantasy football as NCAA stats do. So now we have 9 years of Peterson production, and in at least of one of those years he broke 30 TDs.

OK, you're right; Could you please post some evidence of Peterson scoring MORE than 13 TDs in a season during his NFL career?

Thanks, it's been fun. Next time please stop at agree to disagree. You'll be doing the shark pool a favor.

 

[Justloveit]

I'd be interested to see how many times ADP was pulled at the goal line because he had just ripped off a long run to get the team in that position.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

"Never" isn't misleading. Do you think anyone was mislead into thinking that Peterson had been in the league for more than 2 years? This is Adrian Peterson we're talking about- everyone knows EXACTLY how long he's been in the league. All I'm saying is that if you're expecting Peterson to become a high-TD guy, you're expecting him to do something he hasn't ever done before. If you're expecting MJD to become a high-TD guy, you're just expecting business as usual.

Alright, let's stop the silliness. You know I love your posts, you know I think you're one of the smartest guys in here, and you know I love MJD as much as anybody in the shark pool outside of yourself.But this "you're expecting Adrian Peterson to do something he's never done before" is a specious argument. It's weak as all get-out. Do we really have to open this can of worms? You know what? Until LT2 was in his 4th year, he had never rushed for more than 14 TDs. Until Shaun Alexander was in his third year, he had never rushed for more than 14 rushing TDs or 1,400 yards. Until Priest Holmes was in his sixth year, he never reached 10 TDs. But in Peterson's case, we're going to say we can't expect more 12 TDs because he's "never" done so in all of his two years in the league. That's preposterous. Worse, it's short-sighted, it lacks vision. And that's a mortal fantasy football sin.I understand the goal-line split b/w Peterson and Taylor. I wrote a friggin' article outlining Taylor's role inside the 10-yard line a couple of months ago. But let's not act like Peterson can't break a crapload of long TDs with fewer than 9 in the box ... or take over more goal-line carries this season. It could absolutely happen, and you know that 18 TDs in a monster year (if Favre can get Thomas Jones 1,500 yards and 15 TDs, he & Harvin can certainly get Peterson 2,000 & 18) are fully within the realm of possibility. Like I said, you know I love MJD. But to cap Peterson's upside based on what he's done in the first 2 years of his career is nonsensical.

 

[GDogg]

What has MJD done to make you think he has that talent?

Not anything amazing in YPC. 4.8 career, good, but doesn't yell out "most talented" either...

Not a gargatuan pass catcher, simply above average.

Great goalline back, I agree there.

Never rushed for 1500 yards. I'm sorry, never rushed for over 1,000 yards. That screams talent as a RB.

Never had 600 passing yards...so he isn't the most talented pass catcher either.

Averages under 50 catches a year...for a huge strength, that seems a bit underwhelming for the most talented guy in the league.

Not a good closer either, his worst YPC is in the 4th quarter, when it matters most. Even worse when his team is tied for the lead.

What has he done that says "most talented?" Umm...oh yeah, almost nothing. He converts a high percentage of goal line looks. Is Jerome Bettis one of the most talented backs ever? TJ Duckett? LenDale White?

Yeah...do you expect to receiver any more respect in thsi thread after that?

You think I'm looking for respect from you or anyone else?Based off your post, it's clear you have no idea what the word "talent" means.

Jamal Lewis has rushed for over 1500 yards. I don't think he was ever one of the more talented RBs in the league.

I'm almost 100% positive no RB has ever had more than 600 passing yards. I have no idea why you care about that.

Averages under 50 catches, huh? Yeah, he averages 49. Why did you choose 50 as your baseline? Seems a bit arbitrary. Adrian Peterson averages 20. Does that mean he's not in the discussion for most talented RB? Only eight RBs in the league had 50 or more receptions last season. Mo Drew was one of them. Only six RBs in the league had 50 or more receptions in 2007. Only seven had 50 or more in 2006. Drew has finished 2nd, 13th and 10th, respectively, in receptions among RBs the last three years.

Maurice Drew, in his 3 years in Jacksonville, has been used greatly as a short-yardage and goal line back. Do you know what that tends to do to the YPC average, particularly for a guy who isn't getting a ton of carries to begin with?

In any case, I'll go back to most "talented." What has he done? That's actually pretty irrelevant to the word, "talent." Peyton Manning's not the most talented QB in the league. Neither is Tom Brady or Drew Brees. But, all three of them are among the "best" QBs.

I've watched a lot of football games. College and pro. I don't stare at statistics and make judgments based off that. I use my eyes and my knowledge of football. And, Maurice Drew is the most talented RB in the NFL. He has excellent speed. He has very good vision. He's one of the best receivers for a RB. He has excellent acceleration (not as good as Peterson). He's strong. He has excellent balance.

I know all of this because I actually watch football. And, I also know what the word "talent" means.

Peyton Manning isn't one of the most talented players in the league? Neither is Tom Brady? Dude...you don't get to be the best by not being talented. You're really digging a hole here...just for fun (or, for me to have more fun) who IS your most talented QB?You think anybody here hasn't also watched just as much football as you? You're eyes are wacked out. In need of high perscription contacts. Stats don't tell talent, but talent certainly does seem to climb to the top. Who are your top 5 most talented RBs of all time?

Talent leads to results, and to say somebody is the most talented when they havent done jacks##t to prove that is ludicrous.

I don't know why you bring up 2006 and 2007 reception totals except to prove my point that MJD wasn't one of those elite backs? Last season is most likely an aberration receptions-wise, as the OLine was decimated and they lost multiple receivers to injury and suspension.

You have no idea what talent means and you are trying to form a semantic based, opinionated, impossible to back up with anything at all position because you know you're wrong. It's like a 2 year old saying I know every single indicator says 3+3=6, but I say it is 7 and that's what I say because I have done a lot of math and I must be right!

And sorry I said passing, I think taken in context it is pretty obvious that I meant receiving yards. I guess at the time I was just so shocked by the pure stupidity of the reply that I lost my word choice focus for a minute.

Peyton Manning is not the most physically talented QB in the league. I never said he wasn't one of the most. I said he wasn't the most. Neither is Brees nor Brady. I'd say that Cutler is pretty close to the most physically talented. What Brees, Brady and Manning have over Cutler is experience, intelligence, and, perhaps, drive, among several other intangible talents that make them great. I think it's hilarious that you are struggling so much with the meaning of the word, "talent." And, that's not to say that any of them aren't among the top 10 most talented. They simply aren't the most physically gifted. Or, do you think the guys that put up the most stats every year are the most physically gifted (talent) in the league? If Michael Vick's accuracy was better, he could easily be the most talented QB in the league. His problem is that he's been sorely lacking in all other areas to make him an elite level performing QB.

I brought up 2006, 2007 and 2008 to show that a guy who was a part time player still threw up elite level stats.

And, Mo Drew had the most receiving yards in the league last season among RBs. Yeah, I guess that's not "elite" as a pass catcher.

If talent climbs to the top, then why do you think it is that so many fantasy sites are suggesting Maurice Drew, a RB who has, according to you, don't "nothing," to be the #1 overall selection in fantasy leagues. It can't be the production, right? I'll give you a hint: it starts with a "t" and ends with "alent."

I won't regurgitate what SSOG has already posted. Read it and learn something.

 

[SSOG]

Alright, let's stop the silliness. You know I love your posts, you know I think you're one of the smartest guys in here, and you know I love MJD as much as anybody in the shark pool outside of yourself.But this "you're expecting Adrian Peterson to do something he's never done before" is a specious argument. It's weak as all get-out. Do we really have to open this can of worms? You know what? Until LT2 was in his 4th year, he had never rushed for more than 14 TDs. Until Shaun Alexander was in his third year, he had never rushed for more than 14 rushing TDs or 1,400 yards. Until Priest Holmes was in his sixth year, he never reached 10 TDs. But in Peterson's case, we're going to say we can't expect more 12 TDs because he's "never" done so in all of his two years in the league. That's preposterous. Worse, it's short-sighted, it lacks vision. And that's a mortal fantasy football sin.I understand the goal-line split b/w Peterson and Taylor. I wrote a friggin' article outlining Taylor's role inside the 10-yard line a couple of months ago. But let's not act like Peterson can't break a crapload of long TDs with fewer than 9 in the box ... or take over more goal-line carries this season. It could absolutely happen, and you know that 18 TDs in a monster year (if Favre can get Thomas Jones 1,500 yards and 15 TDs, he & Harvin can certainly get Peterson 2,000 & 18) are fully within the realm of possibility. Like I said, you know I love MJD. But to cap Peterson's upside based on what he's done in the first 2 years of his career is nonsensical.

I never said that I don't expect Peterson to top 13 TDs. I *DO* expect him to top 13 TDs. I expect him to top them pretty easily. I'm just saying that there's a big difference between expecting someone to do something they haven't done before and expecting someone to do something that they've already done the entire time they've been in the league. I think if either Peterson or MJD hits 20 TDs, it's more likely to be MJD, since he's produced huge TD totals, and since he's not giving up half of his gimme scores. Also, while Peterson is perfectly capable of breaking long scores between the 20s, that cuts both ways- MJD is also capable of breaking long scores, and now that Taylor isn't Bogarting the middle of the field he's going to have a chance.If we're talking about high-end production, I think Peterson is fully capable of 2000/20, no question in my mind whatsoever. I also think that MJD is capable of 1625 rushing, 600 receiving, and 22 TDs. I think MJD is fully capable of matching Peterson TD for TD, and because of his receiving totals, he only needs to come within 400 yards of Peterson rushing in order to match him in the total yards department, too. In terms of what I'm *ACTUALLY* projecting for them? 360/1800 rushing and 25/200 receiving with 15 total TDs for Peterson, 300/1500 & 60/500 with 17 TDs for MJD.It's like I posted on your Blog in the Larry Fitzgerald post... I think Adrian Peterson is an uberstud nonpareil. Like I said here, he's the best runner in the league. Just because he's such an incredibly gifted back doesn't mean he's going to have fantasy success on par with Tomlinson, Faulk, or Holmes, though. I think a better analog in terms of production is Shaun Alexander- which is by no means meant as a slight to Peterson (I'm sure any dynasty leaguer worth his salt would pay whatever price was necessary to acquire a 25-year old Shaun Alexander). Or, if you'd prefer a comparison to a back with a bit more talent... look at Barry Sanders. Sanders was arguably the greatest runner in the history of the NFL, but if you lumped together all of his seasons with all of Tomlinson's, Tomlinson would own the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and 8th best fantasy seasons, while Sanders would check in at #4, #7, and #9. The receiving component and the 20+ TD component are both just so vital when it comes to a truly out-of-this-stratosphere fantasy season, and MJD has a demonstrated advantage over Peterson in both departments. If one or the other truly has unlimited upside, it's MJD. Of course, MJD has never rushed for 1000 yards (you see what I did there? ), so while I expect him to top it, it's safer to predict it from the back who has been there, done that, and bought the T-shirt already... which is why I think Peterson has a higher floor.Edit: Maybe I'd be better off putting it this way; I could see MJD leading the league in rushing yardage this year. I don't think it's super-likely, but he's probably in my top 5 candidates. I could see MJD leading the league in receiving yardage this year- he might even be the odds-on favorite if Westbrook is really on the downward slope. I could see MJD leading the league in total TDs this year- in fact, he's my odds-on favorite no matter WHAT. So... he could potentially lead the league in rushing, he could potentially lead the league in receiving, and he could potentially lead the league in TDs. That's the trifecta. Adrian Peterson has the highest ceiling of any RB in the league, but that's only because MJD has no ceiling. SJax can't get the TD title in that putrid STL offense, Peterson/DWill/Turner don't have a prayer of nabbing the receiving title, Westy has never been a TD machine, Forte probably has no shot at the TDs *OR* the rushing. The only other back with even a prayer of nabbing the trifecta is Tomlinson, which means that Tomlinson is the only other back whose upside can match Jones-Drew's.

 

[Tanner9919]

Am I crazy for considering MJD over Adrian Peterson?

in short, YES..dude has never been a featured back.we've seen this movie before, the career backup gets the shot as a starter and fails..see Marion Barber III , 2008.

 

[JMJ]

Am I crazy for considering MJD over Adrian Peterson?

in short, YES..dude has never been a featured back.we've seen this movie before, the career backup gets the shot as a starter and fails..see Marion Barber III , 2008.

I've also seen the movie titled Michael Turner, 2008. It was a good one!

 

[deadRED]

To me, the bottom line is this.

In a PPR league MJD is a top 4 pick. I believe top 3.

His value drops in a non PPR league, but he's still a first rounder.

PPR puts him and AP on a level playing field, in my opinion.

 

[switz]

I think the biggest reason MJD #1 RB over Peterson is his ability in the passing game. MJD said a couple of days ago that he's expecting 330-350 touches. Let's say 270-280 of those are rushing attempts...that would leave 60-70 receptions to fill out his touch prediction.

If you assume he can come in at a 4.4 YPC clip which is modest given his historical performance, that would represent 1150-1200 (approximately) rushing yards.

As for his receiving numbers, even conservatively, if you give him a 9.0 YPR clip (he's never been below 9.1), that's 550-600 receiving yards.

So his YFS figures to be in the 1700-1800 range. Combine that with the fact that he's averaged 13 TD's/season and those are certainly numbers to take notice of for a #1 overall pick now that we seemingly have left the era of 2-3 RB's hitting 2000 YFS.

In '08, JAX rushed the ball 426 times (MJD 197, FT 143)In '07, JAX rushed the ball 522 times (FT 223, MJD 167)

In '06, JAX rushed the ball 513 times (FT 221, MJD 166)

In '05, JAX rushed the ball 502 times (FT 194)

In '04, JAX rushed the ball 446 times (FT 260)

Over the last 5 years, the leading rusher had at most 260 carries, and that was when he (Taylor) had no real competition for touches. To be fair, Taylor missed two games that season, so he was on pace for 297 carries.

I could see MJD getting @297 carries. I'm not sure he'll hold up, but there's no reason to think he won't. I question him getting 60 receptions again. But 30-40 I can see. So 330 touches seems about right.

In the three games he started last season, he averaged 4.0 YPC. For the season he averaged 4.2 YPC. I don't see 4.4 or higher this season being realistic IMO. But give him 4.4 at 297 carries, you get 1306 yards. Give him 9.0 at 30 receptions, you get 270 yards. That's 1576 yards total, still not enough to be the #1 overall RB, unless you expect 20TDs, which I just don't see.

 

[Instinctive]

Peyton Manning is not the most physically talented QB in the league. I never said he wasn't one of the most. I said he wasn't the most. Neither is Brees nor Brady. I'd say that Cutler is pretty close to the most physically talented. What Brees, Brady and Manning have over Cutler is experience, intelligence, and, perhaps, drive, among several other intangible talents that make them great. I think it's hilarious that you are struggling so much with the meaning of the word, "talent." And, that's not to say that any of them aren't among the top 10 most talented. They simply aren't the most physically gifted. Or, do you think the guys that put up the most stats every year are the most physically gifted (talent) in the league? If Michael Vick's accuracy was better, he could easily be the most talented QB in the league. His problem is that he's been sorely lacking in all other areas to make him an elite level performing QB.I brought up 2006, 2007 and 2008 to show that a guy who was a part time player still threw up elite level stats.And, Mo Drew had the most receiving yards in the league last season among RBs. Yeah, I guess that's not "elite" as a pass catcher.If talent climbs to the top, then why do you think it is that so many fantasy sites are suggesting Maurice Drew, a RB who has, according to you, don't "nothing," to be the #1 overall selection in fantasy leagues. It can't be the production, right? I'll give you a hint: it starts with a "t" and ends with "alent."I won't regurgitate what SSOG has already posted. Read it and learn something.

First off, I said he has done nothing to point to being the single most talented back in the league right now.I would say that accuracy for a QB certainly falls under talent. Either you have the ability to put the ball where you want or you don't. You don't seem to understand that I have already lsipped into what you think is talent. If you go by straight physical ability MJD still isn't the most talented. One of? Sure. But THE? Nope.ETA: I think I'm done here, I'll just save this thread for bump fodder. We'll see what happens.

 

[switz]

The receiving component and the 20+ TD component are both just so vital when it comes to a truly out-of-this-stratosphere fantasy season, and MJD has a demonstrated advantage over Peterson in both departments. If one or the other truly has unlimited upside, it's MJD.

I'm not sure I get this... MJD has probably had his best receiving season already, and they are just now working AP into the passing game. Also, while CT does cut into APs TDs, I have no doubts at all that Greg Jones will cut into MJDs.Expecting 20 TDs from wither of these guys is ridiculous IMO, and I think AP hasn't even explored one facet of the game (receiving) so he's the one with more room to grow, not MJD. MJD only has a shot at more rushing opps, and we don't even know how he'll handle them.

 

[JMJ]

Greg Jones has been in JAX longer than MJD has and hasn't vultured goaline TDs from him at any time. Why believe he will now?

And Jones got a short yardage TD last weekend, but that was well after MJD was out of the game.

 

[switz]

I brought up 2006, 2007 and 2008 to show that a guy who was a part time player still threw up elite level stats.And, Mo Drew had the most receiving yards in the league last season among RBs. Yeah, I guess that's not "elite" as a pass catcher.

Actually, having the most receiving yards last season had much more to do with opportunity than necessarily receiving talent. Not saying MJD isn't a talented receiver out of the backfield, but your argument to suggest that is flawed. Last year JAX had no WRs to speak of at all, and MJDs receptions for the season basically doubled because they had no time to throw, and no one to throw to. So his opps went way way up. Additionally, some of the exceptional pass catching RBs had some injuries, and missed time, causing their opps to fall. Putting it together, MJD ended up with the most receiving yards.There were a number fo RBs with better YPR stats, which is more of a measure of how good an RB is as a receiver.. a) can they run a route and catch it downfield, b) do they catch it cleanly enough that it allows them to put a move on the D and generate more yardageKevin Faulk, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Correl Buckhalter, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Jammal Charles, Darren McFadden, Jerome Harrison, Steven Jackson, Sammy Morris, Jerious Norwood, Pierre Thomas - all these guys are better than MJD in the receiving department. Not all of them are better RBs, but they are all better receivers. It also doesn't mean MJD is bad, just that he's not an "elite" talent as a pass catcher, he's one of the better receivers among the better runners in the league, but on pass catching alone, he's not "elite."

 

[switz]

Greg Jones has been in JAX longer than MJD has and hasn't vultured goaline TDs from him at any time. Why believe he will now?

Are we talking about the same Greg Jones that scored 4 TDs in '07 on only 53 touches, when MJD was on the team? The same Greg Jones who did that during his first year back from missing an entire season? He also scored 4 TDs in '05 and 3TDs in '04. With Fred Taylor gone, MJD will carry the ball more between the 20s, you gotta believe Greg Jones will play a bigger role at the GL now.

 

[burd]

Here are the questions I ask myself about MJD:1) Is the OLine finally healthy?2) Is there enough of a passing game to keep 8 men out of the box?3) Can MJD sustain his playing style with a heavier workload?4) Will he still be involved heavily in the passing game?Here is what I've seen so far:1) OL looks healthier, but are not playing very well from what I've seen in the preseason. A little concerning, BUT it is just preseason.2) Williamson is looking good, Holt is old, but still serviceable, they brought Wilford in as a TE, pasing game should be ok.3) Guys YPC has dropped each season, as his workload increased. I see his YPC staying about the same as last year, decent, but not spectacular.4) Last year the receptions were so high because they had no WRs at all. This year he doesn't get 60 catches.Here are my projections for MJD.251 rushes, 4.2 YPC, 1054 yards, 13 TD47 rec, 9.3 YPR, 437 yards, 3 TDTotal: 1491 yards, 16 TDTop-5 likely finish IMO, but not #1 overall.

excellent points. now with that said, who do you like more in 2009, Turner or MJD? Ive got them in the same ballpark but I too see MJDs receptions falling this year. If I have the #2 pick, I'm seriously consider Turner over MJD (assuming Petersen goes #1)

 

[switz]

Here are the questions I ask myself about MJD:1) Is the OLine finally healthy?2) Is there enough of a passing game to keep 8 men out of the box?3) Can MJD sustain his playing style with a heavier workload?4) Will he still be involved heavily in the passing game?Here is what I've seen so far:1) OL looks healthier, but are not playing very well from what I've seen in the preseason. A little concerning, BUT it is just preseason.2) Williamson is looking good, Holt is old, but still serviceable, they brought Wilford in as a TE, pasing game should be ok.3) Guys YPC has dropped each season, as his workload increased. I see his YPC staying about the same as last year, decent, but not spectacular.4) Last year the receptions were so high because they had no WRs at all. This year he doesn't get 60 catches.Here are my projections for MJD.251 rushes, 4.2 YPC, 1054 yards, 13 TD47 rec, 9.3 YPR, 437 yards, 3 TDTotal: 1491 yards, 16 TDTop-5 likely finish IMO, but not #1 overall.

excellent points. now with that said, who do you like more in 2009, Turner or MJD? Ive got them in the same ballpark but I too see MJDs receptions falling this year. If I have the #2 pick, I'm seriously consider Turner over MJD (assuming Petersen goes #1)

Depends if it's PPR or not, non-PPR I might go with Turner, PPR you have to go with MJD. I agree with someone who posted earlier that MJD is one of the safest top-5 picks this year, I just don't think he's the #1 overall. I have him and Turner neck and neck, and in a PPR I'd lean MJD, non-PPR I might flip a coin. Even though MJDs receptions might drop back to 30, that's at least 25 more points than Turner will get, as he's (Turner) is rarely used in the passing game (only 6 rec last year, and that was a career high).I like ADP first, Turner/MJD are a tossup, Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton are pretty safe to finish in the top-10, I'm down on Forte, in PPR Westbrook is good (I'm not too high on McCoy) - this is a tough year to project RBs... I think it's smart to think about passing on RBs if you don't have a top-5 pick, and going WR WR, and grabbing some of the sleeper RBs later, like Felix Jones who could finish in the top-10.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Are we talking about the same Greg Jones that scored 4 TDs in '07 on only 53 touches, when MJD was on the team? The same Greg Jones who did that during his first year back from missing an entire season? He also scored 4 TDs in '05 and 3TDs in '04.

4 TDs in a season is hardly a "vulture" role. Leroy Hoard getting 9-10 TDs per year at age 30-31, that is a vulture role. TJ Duckett averaging 9 TDs per year from 2003-2005, that is a vulture role.

With Fred Taylor gone, MJD will carry the ball more between the 20s, you gotta believe Greg Jones will play a bigger role at the GL now.

No, you don't HAVE to believe Greg Jones will play a bigger role at the GL. You could also believe that Greg Jones isn't very talented, has been beaten down by injuries, may end up injured again, or may end up cut.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

I think the biggest reason MJD #1 RB over Peterson is his ability in the passing game. MJD said a couple of days ago that he's expecting 330-350 touches. Let's say 270-280 of those are rushing attempts...that would leave 60-70 receptions to fill out his touch prediction.

If you assume he can come in at a 4.4 YPC clip which is modest given his historical performance, that would represent 1150-1200 (approximately) rushing yards.

As for his receiving numbers, even conservatively, if you give him a 9.0 YPR clip (he's never been below 9.1), that's 550-600 receiving yards.

So his YFS figures to be in the 1700-1800 range. Combine that with the fact that he's averaged 13 TD's/season and those are certainly numbers to take notice of for a #1 overall pick now that we seemingly have left the era of 2-3 RB's hitting 2000 YFS.

In '08, JAX rushed the ball 426 times (MJD 197, FT 143)In '07, JAX rushed the ball 522 times (FT 223, MJD 167)

In '06, JAX rushed the ball 513 times (FT 221, MJD 166)

In '05, JAX rushed the ball 502 times (FT 194)

In '04, JAX rushed the ball 446 times (FT 260)

Over the last 5 years, the leading rusher had at most 260 carries, and that was when he (Taylor) had no real competition for touches. To be fair, Taylor missed two games that season, so he was on pace for 297 carries.

I could see MJD getting @297 carries. I'm not sure he'll hold up, but there's no reason to think he won't. I question him getting 60 receptions again. But 30-40 I can see. So 330 touches seems about right.

In the three games he started last season, he averaged 4.0 YPC. For the season he averaged 4.2 YPC. I don't see 4.4 or higher this season being realistic IMO. But give him 4.4 at 297 carries, you get 1306 yards. Give him 9.0 at 30 receptions, you get 270 yards. That's 1576 yards total, still not enough to be the #1 overall RB, unless you expect 20TDs, which I just don't see.

I've been following this thread, because I'm looking at both at #1 in my PPR league, and there are some very good points and opions being made. But I can not see any reason, outside of an injury that limits MJD to 10 or less games, that he would only finish with 30 receptions. I'd love to see the reasoning.JAX RB's have averaged 77 rec/yr over the last 3 years. (95-61-75). MJD has averaged 49 rec/yr over the last 3 years (62-40-46) in a part time role. I know JAX WR's may be improved this year, but I can not see who will get the other 40+ receptions out of the JAX backfield this year and why MJD's receptions will be down 32 from '08 and 19 from his career average, after he takes over as the main RB, for the first time.

I think if JAX improves as a team, they would probably pass less then they did in '08, when their passing attempts went up a good bit over '06 & '07. I can see a split between the '07 & '08 passing attempts, about 500, and I see the rushing creeping up to about 400. I know the RB receptions were really high in 2008 (95) but I can not see them dropping below the 3 year average of 77. Even if they do, what would they have to drop to for MJD to only get 30? 61 was the lowest over the last 3 years, if they finish with 61 in '09, which I can't see happening, who will get the other 31 receptions?

I think MJD is a lock for 55 receptions this year, with the upside around 70. JAX knows what he can do as a receiver, and it has been stated (maybe coach speak) that they want to get him the ball more in space on passes. What if JAX does complete 95 receptions to RB's again this year, as they did in '08, who would get the other 60+ receptions out of the backfield if MJD gets 30? I think 30 is way too low.

Maybe I'm missing something here, and if I am I want to know what it is, because this pick is killing me this year.

 

[Wadsworth]

I think the biggest reason MJD #1 RB over Peterson is his ability in the passing game. MJD said a couple of days ago that he's expecting 330-350 touches. Let's say 270-280 of those are rushing attempts...that would leave 60-70 receptions to fill out his touch prediction.

If you assume he can come in at a 4.4 YPC clip which is modest given his historical performance, that would represent 1150-1200 (approximately) rushing yards.

As for his receiving numbers, even conservatively, if you give him a 9.0 YPR clip (he's never been below 9.1), that's 550-600 receiving yards.

So his YFS figures to be in the 1700-1800 range. Combine that with the fact that he's averaged 13 TD's/season and those are certainly numbers to take notice of for a #1 overall pick now that we seemingly have left the era of 2-3 RB's hitting 2000 YFS.

In '08, JAX rushed the ball 426 times (MJD 197, FT 143)In '07, JAX rushed the ball 522 times (FT 223, MJD 167)

In '06, JAX rushed the ball 513 times (FT 221, MJD 166)

In '05, JAX rushed the ball 502 times (FT 194)

In '04, JAX rushed the ball 446 times (FT 260)

Over the last 5 years, the leading rusher had at most 260 carries, and that was when he (Taylor) had no real competition for touches. To be fair, Taylor missed two games that season, so he was on pace for 297 carries.

I could see MJD getting @297 carries. I'm not sure he'll hold up, but there's no reason to think he won't. I question him getting 60 receptions again. But 30-40 I can see. So 330 touches seems about right.

In the three games he started last season, he averaged 4.0 YPC. For the season he averaged 4.2 YPC. I don't see 4.4 or higher this season being realistic IMO. But give him 4.4 at 297 carries, you get 1306 yards. Give him 9.0 at 30 receptions, you get 270 yards. That's 1576 yards total, still not enough to be the #1 overall RB, unless you expect 20TDs, which I just don't see.

My projections for MJD are higher but only slightly. But my question to you is: Do you draft soley based on projections?I think it's very important to look at the upside and downside potential of the player as well. MJD's down side is extremely high. He's been a fantasy top 12 RB since he got in the league with limited carries. I can't think of any reason outside of injury that would push his downside beyond a solid RB1. His upside is more I think what is in question. I'd say a very realistic upside for 2009 would be 325 carries at 4.5 per and 50 catches at 9 per, and 18 TDs. Depending on what you think of Peterson, that potential might be enough to push MJD to the #1 for some people.

 

[switz]

I think the biggest reason MJD #1 RB over Peterson is his ability in the passing game. MJD said a couple of days ago that he's expecting 330-350 touches. Let's say 270-280 of those are rushing attempts...that would leave 60-70 receptions to fill out his touch prediction.

If you assume he can come in at a 4.4 YPC clip which is modest given his historical performance, that would represent 1150-1200 (approximately) rushing yards.

As for his receiving numbers, even conservatively, if you give him a 9.0 YPR clip (he's never been below 9.1), that's 550-600 receiving yards.

So his YFS figures to be in the 1700-1800 range. Combine that with the fact that he's averaged 13 TD's/season and those are certainly numbers to take notice of for a #1 overall pick now that we seemingly have left the era of 2-3 RB's hitting 2000 YFS.

In '08, JAX rushed the ball 426 times (MJD 197, FT 143)In '07, JAX rushed the ball 522 times (FT 223, MJD 167)

In '06, JAX rushed the ball 513 times (FT 221, MJD 166)

In '05, JAX rushed the ball 502 times (FT 194)

In '04, JAX rushed the ball 446 times (FT 260)

Over the last 5 years, the leading rusher had at most 260 carries, and that was when he (Taylor) had no real competition for touches. To be fair, Taylor missed two games that season, so he was on pace for 297 carries.

I could see MJD getting @297 carries. I'm not sure he'll hold up, but there's no reason to think he won't. I question him getting 60 receptions again. But 30-40 I can see. So 330 touches seems about right.

In the three games he started last season, he averaged 4.0 YPC. For the season he averaged 4.2 YPC. I don't see 4.4 or higher this season being realistic IMO. But give him 4.4 at 297 carries, you get 1306 yards. Give him 9.0 at 30 receptions, you get 270 yards. That's 1576 yards total, still not enough to be the #1 overall RB, unless you expect 20TDs, which I just don't see.

I've been following this thread, because I'm looking at both at #1 in my PPR league, and there are some very good points and opions being made. But I can not see any reason, outside of an injury that limits MJD to 10 or less games, that he would only finish with 30 receptions. I'd love to see the reasoning.JAX RB's have averaged 77 rec/yr over the last 3 years. (95-61-75). MJD has averaged 49 rec/yr over the last 3 years (62-40-46) in a part time role. I know JAX WR's may be improved this year, but I can not see who will get the other 40+ receptions out of the JAX backfield this year and why MJD's receptions will be down 32 from '08 and 19 from his career average, after he takes over as the main RB, for the first time.

I think if JAX improves as a team, they would probably pass less then they did in '08, when their passing attempts went up a good bit over '06 & '07. I can see a split between the '07 & '08 passing attempts, about 500, and I see the rushing creeping up to about 400. I know the RB receptions were really high in 2008 (95) but I can not see them dropping below the 3 year average of 77. Even if they do, what would they have to drop to for MJD to only get 30? 61 was the lowest over the last 3 years, if they finish with 61 in '09, which I can't see happening, who will get the other 31 receptions?

I think MJD is a lock for 55 receptions this year, with the upside around 70. JAX knows what he can do as a receiver, and it has been stated (maybe coach speak) that they want to get him the ball more in space on passes. What if JAX does complete 95 receptions to RB's again this year, as they did in '08, who would get the other 60+ receptions out of the backfield if MJD gets 30? I think 30 is way too low.

Maybe I'm missing something here, and if I am I want to know what it is, because this pick is killing me this year.

Hmmm... I thought he had 30-36-60, but what you posted makes me think he'd be more like 40-45 receptions. Thanks.I still think they drop a lot from last season, now that Holt is there and Williamson seems to have turned on the light.

 

[burd]

Here are the questions I ask myself about MJD:1) Is the OLine finally healthy?2) Is there enough of a passing game to keep 8 men out of the box?3) Can MJD sustain his playing style with a heavier workload?4) Will he still be involved heavily in the passing game?Here is what I've seen so far:1) OL looks healthier, but are not playing very well from what I've seen in the preseason. A little concerning, BUT it is just preseason.2) Williamson is looking good, Holt is old, but still serviceable, they brought Wilford in as a TE, pasing game should be ok.3) Guys YPC has dropped each season, as his workload increased. I see his YPC staying about the same as last year, decent, but not spectacular.4) Last year the receptions were so high because they had no WRs at all. This year he doesn't get 60 catches.Here are my projections for MJD.251 rushes, 4.2 YPC, 1054 yards, 13 TD47 rec, 9.3 YPR, 437 yards, 3 TDTotal: 1491 yards, 16 TDTop-5 likely finish IMO, but not #1 overall.

excellent points. now with that said, who do you like more in 2009, Turner or MJD? Ive got them in the same ballpark but I too see MJDs receptions falling this year. If I have the #2 pick, I'm seriously consider Turner over MJD (assuming Petersen goes #1)

Depends if it's PPR or not, non-PPR I might go with Turner, PPR you have to go with MJD. I agree with someone who posted earlier that MJD is one of the safest top-5 picks this year, I just don't think he's the #1 overall. I have him and Turner neck and neck, and in a PPR I'd lean MJD, non-PPR I might flip a coin. Even though MJDs receptions might drop back to 30, that's at least 25 more points than Turner will get, as he's (Turner) is rarely used in the passing game (only 6 rec last year, and that was a career high).I like ADP first, Turner/MJD are a tossup, Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton are pretty safe to finish in the top-10, I'm down on Forte, in PPR Westbrook is good (I'm not too high on McCoy) - this is a tough year to project RBs... I think it's smart to think about passing on RBs if you don't have a top-5 pick, and going WR WR, and grabbing some of the sleeper RBs later, like Felix Jones who could finish in the top-10.

hmm... im in a 10-team, start 2QB league where RBs and WRs get point per first down (somewhat similar to PPR, points-wise). I'm predicting 3 QBs go round 1 (6pt passing TDs) and maybe Randy Moss. That leaves 6 slots for RBs... ADP, MJD, Turner, LT and SJax should be the first 5 RBs to go. That 6th RB is a tough call between: DeAngelo, Forte, Chris Johnson, Gore, Slaton and maybe Jacobs. I really like DeAngelo and Johnson, but I see Gore getting a lot of touches which bumps up those first down points. Under my league's scoring system, i'm leaning towards Gore as RB6 behind the top 5. Slaton is on my radar too but I think he'll lose some carries ... especially goaline carries.

 

[switz]

My projections for MJD are higher but only slightly. But my question to you is: Do you draft soley based on projections?

I think it's very important to look at the upside and downside potential of the player as well. MJD's down side is extremely high. He's been a fantasy top 12 RB since he got in the league with limited carries. I can't think of any reason outside of injury that would push his downside beyond a solid RB1. His upside is more I think what is in question. I'd say a very realistic upside for 2009 would be 325 carries at 4.5 per and 50 catches at 9 per, and 18 TDs. Depending on what you think of Peterson, that potential might be enough to push MJD to the #1 for some people.

You're right. I happen to think ADPs downside is not as low as MJDs downside. We don't know how MJD will handle such an increase in touches. Will he wear down like Barber did? There's no real reason to think so, but at the same time, there wasn't any reason to think Barber would either. I simply think MJD carries MORE risk than ADP, which is why ADP is #1 for me. (I also think he carries more risk than Turner, but his ceiling is higher - which outweighs the risk in some cases)It's close, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking MJD #1 especially in a PPR league, but I wouldn't do it myself. I think he's in my top-3, and am sure he'll finish in the top-5. But I could aslo see him being a top-5 RB for the first six weeks and then his wheels fall off, a la Barber, Steven Jackson, Westbrook, etc.

It all depends on how you weight the risk, estimate his ceiling and floor. He's definitely not a bad pick at #1, he has great potential.

 

[switz]

BTW, a lot of in this thread!

 

[mdog1967]

You make some good points, but come on. Saying Peterson has never topped 13 TDs is disingenuous at best and careless at worst. The dude has played all of two seasons! Are you really using the word "never" for a guy who began his career in 2007?

Also, I agree that Peterson has the least downside, but I think he also has the most upside ... which is why he's the no-brainer No. 1. I don't think people quite understand yet what the addition of Percy Harvin and the subtraction of Tarvaris Jackson will do to open up this offense.

It's neither disingenuous nor careless. Over the past two seasons, Peterson has 27 carries inside the 10... and Chester Taylor has 26. Both backs have been equally effective (and neither back has really demonstrated an MJD-like nose for the end zone). Chester Taylor actually has MORE carries inside the 5 than Peterson over that span, and Peterson's 12 carries inside the 5 since 2007 rank him tied for 37th in the NFL with... wait for it... Pierre Thomas and LaMont Jordan, just behind Dominic Rhodes and Reggie Bush. I don't think it's the slightest bit disingenuous to question whether Peterson is a 20-TD back when he hasn't even secured goal-line duties yet. When I say he's "never" had more than 13 TDs, what I'm really saying is that he has yet to show that he's going to be a Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, or even Maurice Jones-Drew- a guy who is option 1, 2, and 3 in the red zone (and option 5, too, for good measure).

You can't win a fantasy league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose one. Are you sure you're going to be able to knuckle up and take the gamble?

Off topic, but this is the stupidest axiom in fantasy football. You can absolutely win your league in round 1. Tomlinson in 2006 had 270 VBD. QB6, RB8, RB9, WR13, WR14, and TE5 *COMBINED* had a VBD of 271. In 2006, LaDanian Tomlinson did as much to help you win your league as drafting Jon Kitna, Rudi Johnson, MJD, Darrell Jackson, Marques Colston, and Chris Cooley COMBINED.Also, in any given year, 50% of first round draft picks tend to bust, so you most certainly can NOT lose your league in the first round- worst case scenario is you're in exactly the same boat as half the league.

Unless of course your Fantasy Superbowl in 2006 was week 16, were LT gave you 123 yards rushing, 1 catch and No TD's.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

BTW, a lot of in this thread!

Very true. One of the best threads in the SP for awhile.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

I think the biggest reason MJD #1 RB over Peterson is his ability in the passing game. MJD said a couple of days ago that he's expecting 330-350 touches. Let's say 270-280 of those are rushing attempts...that would leave 60-70 receptions to fill out his touch prediction.

If you assume he can come in at a 4.4 YPC clip which is modest given his historical performance, that would represent 1150-1200 (approximately) rushing yards.

As for his receiving numbers, even conservatively, if you give him a 9.0 YPR clip (he's never been below 9.1), that's 550-600 receiving yards.

So his YFS figures to be in the 1700-1800 range. Combine that with the fact that he's averaged 13 TD's/season and those are certainly numbers to take notice of for a #1 overall pick now that we seemingly have left the era of 2-3 RB's hitting 2000 YFS.

In '08, JAX rushed the ball 426 times (MJD 197, FT 143)In '07, JAX rushed the ball 522 times (FT 223, MJD 167)

In '06, JAX rushed the ball 513 times (FT 221, MJD 166)

In '05, JAX rushed the ball 502 times (FT 194)

In '04, JAX rushed the ball 446 times (FT 260)

Over the last 5 years, the leading rusher had at most 260 carries, and that was when he (Taylor) had no real competition for touches. To be fair, Taylor missed two games that season, so he was on pace for 297 carries.

I could see MJD getting @297 carries. I'm not sure he'll hold up, but there's no reason to think he won't. I question him getting 60 receptions again. But 30-40 I can see. So 330 touches seems about right.

In the three games he started last season, he averaged 4.0 YPC. For the season he averaged 4.2 YPC. I don't see 4.4 or higher this season being realistic IMO. But give him 4.4 at 297 carries, you get 1306 yards. Give him 9.0 at 30 receptions, you get 270 yards. That's 1576 yards total, still not enough to be the #1 overall RB, unless you expect 20TDs, which I just don't see.

I've been following this thread, because I'm looking at both at #1 in my PPR league, and there are some very good points and opions being made. But I can not see any reason, outside of an injury that limits MJD to 10 or less games, that he would only finish with 30 receptions. I'd love to see the reasoning.JAX RB's have averaged 77 rec/yr over the last 3 years. (95-61-75). MJD has averaged 49 rec/yr over the last 3 years (62-40-46) in a part time role. I know JAX WR's may be improved this year, but I can not see who will get the other 40+ receptions out of the JAX backfield this year and why MJD's receptions will be down 32 from '08 and 19 from his career average, after he takes over as the main RB, for the first time.

I think if JAX improves as a team, they would probably pass less then they did in '08, when their passing attempts went up a good bit over '06 & '07. I can see a split between the '07 & '08 passing attempts, about 500, and I see the rushing creeping up to about 400. I know the RB receptions were really high in 2008 (95) but I can not see them dropping below the 3 year average of 77. Even if they do, what would they have to drop to for MJD to only get 30? 61 was the lowest over the last 3 years, if they finish with 61 in '09, which I can't see happening, who will get the other 31 receptions?

I think MJD is a lock for 55 receptions this year, with the upside around 70. JAX knows what he can do as a receiver, and it has been stated (maybe coach speak) that they want to get him the ball more in space on passes. What if JAX does complete 95 receptions to RB's again this year, as they did in '08, who would get the other 60+ receptions out of the backfield if MJD gets 30? I think 30 is way too low.

Maybe I'm missing something here, and if I am I want to know what it is, because this pick is killing me this year.

Hmmm... I thought he had 30-36-60, but what you posted makes me think he'd be more like 40-45 receptions. Thanks.I still think they drop a lot from last season, now that Holt is there and Williamson seems to have turned on the light.

I got the stats from here, so I assume they're correct.I can see the point with the improved WR play, but in '08, not only were RB receptions up in JAX, WR receptions were also up to 178, while they only had 155 in '07 & 138 in '06. Again, splitting the '07 & '08 stats, which I feel is a good place to start with JAX this year, I can see maybe 310 completions with 170 to WR's 60 to TE's and 80 to RB's.

 

[Wadsworth]

Kevin Faulk, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Correl Buckhalter, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Jammal Charles, Darren McFadden, Jerome Harrison, Steven Jackson, Sammy Morris, Jerious Norwood, Pierre Thomas - all these guys are better than MJD in the receiving department. Not all of them are better RBs, but they are all better receivers. It also doesn't mean MJD is bad, just that he's not an "elite" talent as a pass catcher, he's one of the better receivers among the better runners in the league, but on pass catching alone, he's not "elite."

Really? You don't think that MJD could out perform at least some of these guys if he was used in a similar role? This is really stretching it. It's like saying that WRx that has 4.2 speed but can only run the deep routes is better at the deep ball than a well rounded WRy because he averages more per catch. So the speedster averaged 18 per on 22 cacthes and the WRy averages 15 per on 85 catches. But the speedster is limited because he can't do anything else, it doesn't mean he better at the deep route than WRy, it just means it's all he can do so his average per catch isn't decreased by shorter routes.

MJD is on the field a lot more often than 3rd and 12, where it's easier to pick up receiving yards out of the backfield. Peyton Hillis, 14 career catches and a better pass catcher than MJD? Come on switz.

 

[ChixCutlet]

Not to change the subject, but a case for MJD # 1 overall is clearly more relevant to me with all that is coming out of Minnesota. The fact that the locker room is spilt, Favre didn't far well with the Jets, and they didn't have two OK QB's behind Favre, is cause for concern on AP.

In NY, clemens was never the answer. In MN there is SAge and Tavaris, both capable, but behind the old and cortizone Favre! I feel that peterson, yes he is an animal, may feel this especially if there is turmoil. If the vikings start off bad, if the williams guys get suspsneded and the D can't hold, then is Peterson really going to have a better year? If Favre is bad, that means the record is going to be bad, and lets be honest guys, Tavaris and Sage are not going to come in and save the day. I have actually thought by week 10 the Vikings may be at a point, with the bears and GB looking the way they have so far, to get rid of childress and work on 2010! Just an opinion but last year they pounded AP becasue they knew they had to make the playoffs on his back.

If they are out early, they will not pound AP and it will HURT his ADP! In this situaiton outside of injuries, the jaguars schedule is weak, and they are in a Division that, Titans are questionable after last year, the texans are always a ?, and the Colts D is nothing to write home about so this division could be one of the most competitive in the league this yr. All IMO, but valid to consider MJD for the first pick!

 

[switz]

Kevin Faulk, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Correl Buckhalter, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Jammal Charles, Darren McFadden, Jerome Harrison, Steven Jackson, Sammy Morris, Jerious Norwood, Pierre Thomas - all these guys are better than MJD in the receiving department. Not all of them are better RBs, but they are all better receivers. It also doesn't mean MJD is bad, just that he's not an "elite" talent as a pass catcher, he's one of the better receivers among the better runners in the league, but on pass catching alone, he's not "elite."

Really? You don't think that MJD could out perform at least some of these guys if he was used in a similar role?

Possibly... I don't think MJD is a bad pass catcher, I just don't think the argument the other poster was using to say he was an "elite" talent as a receiver out of the backfield was valid. As for Hillis - he's a pretty darn good receiver, very very underrated, Larry Centers-esque. I really tihnk if you watch all of the guys listed above, you'd come away very impressed by all of them as receivers out of the backfield.

 

[burd]

Kevin Faulk, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Correl Buckhalter, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Jammal Charles, Darren McFadden, Jerome Harrison, Steven Jackson, Sammy Morris, Jerious Norwood, Pierre Thomas - all these guys are better than MJD in the receiving department. Not all of them are better RBs, but they are all better receivers. It also doesn't mean MJD is bad, just that he's not an "elite" talent as a pass catcher, he's one of the better receivers among the better runners in the league, but on pass catching alone, he's not "elite."

Really? You don't think that MJD could out perform at least some of these guys if he was used in a similar role?

Possibly... I don't think MJD is a bad pass catcher, I just don't think the argument the other poster was using to say he was an "elite" talent as a receiver out of the backfield was valid. As for Hillis - he's a pretty darn good receiver, very very underrated, Larry Centers-esque. I really tihnk if you watch all of the guys listed above, you'd come away very impressed by all of them as receivers out of the backfield.

I think MJD is a very good pass catcher ... could even be an elite receiver out of the backfield, but he's first and foremost a great runner. Extra attention to MJD as a receiver reduces carries when you start getting into the higher number of receptions per game. I believe that if Jax used MJD in a Westbrook-type role, he's perform very well ... maybe not on the level of Westbrook, but I think he could hold his own touching the ball 25+ times a game both rushing and receiving.

 

[ookook]

The (albeit nominal) questions about both is why I prefer to be picking 3rd thru 5th this season. I think Turner, Jackson, and perhaps DWill are all nicely safe. Less upside, but fewer questions in my book. And what I really want is and earlier 2nd round pick as any of those 5 RBs would satisfy me.

 

[GDogg]

Kevin Faulk, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Correl Buckhalter, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Jammal Charles, Darren McFadden, Jerome Harrison, Steven Jackson, Sammy Morris, Jerious Norwood, Pierre Thomas - all these guys are better than MJD in the receiving department. Not all of them are better RBs, but they are all better receivers. It also doesn't mean MJD is bad, just that he's not an "elite" talent as a pass catcher, he's one of the better receivers among the better runners in the league, but on pass catching alone, he's not "elite."

Really? You don't think that MJD could out perform at least some of these guys if he was used in a similar role?

Possibly... I don't think MJD is a bad pass catcher, I just don't think the argument the other poster was using to say he was an "elite" talent as a receiver out of the backfield was valid. As for Hillis - he's a pretty darn good receiver, very very underrated, Larry Centers-esque. I really tihnk if you watch all of the guys listed above, you'd come away very impressed by all of them as receivers out of the backfield.

Just to be clear. It wasn't MY argument. If you read the exchange, the other poster was using the 600 yards receiving stat to say that Mo Drew wasn't elite. My counter to that was that his total yards receiving was the most in the league by a RB. It doesn't necessarily indicate that he is elite (I think he is), but it sure as heck shouldn't stand for the proposition that he isn't elite as a receiver. That's a ludicrous conclusion to draw.

 

[switz]

Kevin Faulk, Darren Sproles, Peyton Hillis, Correl Buckhalter, Joseph Addai, Michael Robinson, Jammal Charles, Darren McFadden, Jerome Harrison, Steven Jackson, Sammy Morris, Jerious Norwood, Pierre Thomas - all these guys are better than MJD in the receiving department. Not all of them are better RBs, but they are all better receivers. It also doesn't mean MJD is bad, just that he's not an "elite" talent as a pass catcher, he's one of the better receivers among the better runners in the league, but on pass catching alone, he's not "elite."

Really? You don't think that MJD could out perform at least some of these guys if he was used in a similar role?

Possibly... I don't think MJD is a bad pass catcher, I just don't think the argument the other poster was using to say he was an "elite" talent as a receiver out of the backfield was valid. As for Hillis - he's a pretty darn good receiver, very very underrated, Larry Centers-esque. I really tihnk if you watch all of the guys listed above, you'd come away very impressed by all of them as receivers out of the backfield.

Just to be clear. It wasn't MY argument. If you read the exchange, the other poster was using the 600 yards receiving stat to say that Mo Drew wasn't elite. My counter to that was that his total yards receiving was the most in the league by a RB. It doesn't necessarily indicate that he is elite (I think he is), but it sure as heck shouldn't stand for the proposition that he isn't elite as a receiver. That's a ludicrous conclusion to draw.

That I can agree with 100%...

 

[SSOG]

I'm not sure I get this... MJD has probably had his best receiving season already, and they are just now working AP into the passing game. Also, while CT does cut into APs TDs, I have no doubts at all that Greg Jones will cut into MJDs.Expecting 20 TDs from wither of these guys is ridiculous IMO, and I think AP hasn't even explored one facet of the game (receiving) so he's the one with more room to grow, not MJD. MJD only has a shot at more rushing opps, and we don't even know how he'll handle them.

I don't expect either player to top 20, I'm just saying that if one or the other is more likely to do it, it's MJD, based on past history and team usage patterns. I also fail to see how last year's receiving numbers were his ceiling. He's always had elite receiving skills, so why would you expect his numbers to decrease now that he's going to be on the field more? A back who has never had fewer than 40 receptions and who is now going to be on the field more has a decided advantage in the receiving department over a back who has never had more than 21 receptions and who can't possibly get on the field any more than he already has.As for AP having more room to grow... he might get, what 20 more receptions this year than last year (being wildly optimistic)? MJD might get 100 more carries this year than last year (and might get them behind a decent NFL line, as opposed to last year). I also think that MJD is as likely to increase his reception totals by 20 as Peterson is (which is not to be confused with me saying that either party is the least bit likely to increase their reception totals by 20). Seems like MJD has far more room to grow.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Not anything amazing in YPC. 4.8 career, good, but doesn't yell out "most talented" either...

What would you consider a good career YPC?I guess LT (4.4), Eric Dickerson (4.4) and OJ (4.7) must not have been the "most taleneted" either...

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

You can't compare 1 season of a rusher to the career of another. The comparison I amde was simply of the last season for each back. Fairly obvious.

Dude... if you find yourself in a hole, quit digging.(P.S. - we need a smiley face with a shovel, digging himself into a hole.)

 

[two_dollars]

MJD - 300 for 1350, 60 for 540, 16 total TD's

That's my conservative estimate. Why?

1) Better Line (healthy for now at least).

2) Feature back and more talented than all but a couple in the NFL.

3) Builds on his previous numbers in a timeshare. YPC increase because of more carries between the 20's.

4) BMI among the likes of Larry Johnson and Ronnie Brown, but a much lower smaller target.

5) He's a bad ###

If you are over 30, turn the music off on this unless you liek rap, but don't blame me, I didn't make it..

but this really does show his blend of power, speed, vision, and ability.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o_eRjGi1bc

 

[The Kansas Comet]

A fun argument to observe, certainly. One thing I would point out is that if some people think that Jacksonville will be better in the passing game and that will reduce MJD's receptions, wouldn't it stand to reason that it would improve MJD's rushing efficiency since defenses won't be able to completely ignore the Jaguar receivers?

 

[ookook]

I think accoding to Chase's Rearview SOS, AP averaged about 4.76 YPC, whereas as MJD about 4.17. Just saying.

Of course, Jacobs did quite well too, who is my choice going late in 1st early in 2nd. VALUE.

 

[Instinctive]

You can't compare 1 season of a rusher to the career of another. The comparison I amde was simply of the last season for each back. Fairly obvious.

Dude... if you find yourself in a hole, quit digging.(P.S. - we need a smiley face with a shovel, digging himself into a hole.)

Dude, if you're going to quote a post try not to pick one line out of context. I gave all possible combinations of comparisons. And comparing one season to another player's career is not a good comparison at all. Its a larger sample size versus a smaller one.Compare the same seasons, or the whole careers of both, or...Try to read.

 

[deadRED]

I can't believe some think MJD will be in the 30-35 receptions range. That's nuts.

Since 2006 he's never had fewer than 40 catches. Last year he had 62.

Now Taylor is gone.

Barring injury. I'd say he's a lock for 45-60 catches. Just my opinion.