My Case for MJD at #1 Overall (2 Viewers)

[SSOG]

Dude, if you're going to quote a post try not to pick one line out of context. I gave all possible combinations of comparisons. And comparing one season to another player's career is not a good comparison at all. Its a larger sample size versus a smaller one.Compare the same seasons, or the whole careers of both, or...Try to read.

Actually, statistically speaking, a sample size of 530 (MJD's career carry total) is more similar to a sample size of 363 (Peterson's totals last year) than a sample size of 197 (MJD's totals last year) is. There are valid reasons not to compare career totals to single-season totals (career totals encapsulate a lot of flux in supporting cast, for instance), but the size of the samples isn't one of those reasons.

 

[Instinctive]

Dude, if you're going to quote a post try not to pick one line out of context. I gave all possible combinations of comparisons. And comparing one season to another player's career is not a good comparison at all. Its a larger sample size versus a smaller one.Compare the same seasons, or the whole careers of both, or...Try to read.

Actually, statistically speaking, a sample size of 530 (MJD's career carry total) is more similar to a sample size of 363 (Peterson's totals last year) than a sample size of 197 (MJD's totals last year) is. There are valid reasons not to compare career totals to single-season totals (career totals encapsulate a lot of flux in supporting cast, for instance), but the size of the samples isn't one of those reasons.

And 601 (Peterson's career rush attempt total) is mor elike 530 than 363. Like I said, career to career or year to year. Going with whatever year you pick against the entire career is disingenuous.ETA: maybe I should say misleading. Just wanted to bring the word disingenuous back b/c of the argument with it earlier

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

...

Hey man, I was just trying to help you. Carry on.

 

[captbly]

I've had MJD ranked as the #1 player for quite a while now, so no I don't think you are crazy.

See, here is the problem though. I have also. This isn't so much a new revelation for me. The problem is that with my draft now being 5 days away, I don't know if I'm going to be able to actually go through with pulling the trigger. I feel like Peterson is the safer pick even though I think MJD is poised to have a bigger year.You can't win a fantasy league with your 1st round pick, but you can lose one. Are you sure you're going to be able to knuckle up and take the gamble?

I hear you man. This is the same thing I am faced with on my draft this weekend. Even though the league is PPR...I think I have to go with AP... especially with Farve in there.

 

[captbly]

You can't compare 1 season of a rusher to the career of another. The comparison I amde was simply of the last season for each back. Fairly obvious.If you want to take MJD's last 363 carries (actually, I am going to use his last 364 because that encompasses his last 2 seasons and I don't have to go search for the exact yardage on a carry 363 carries ago) and compare it to Peterson's last 363 carries...Peterson: 4.8 ypcJones-Drew: 4.37 ypcIf you want to take a career ypc, Peterson is at 5.2 and MJC is at 4.8. If you want to only take ypc from the 2 seasons both have been in the league, MJD is at 4.37 and Peterson is at 5.2. Starting to see that trend? If you want to cherry pick stats, go ahead. I prefer to use the stats from the same timeframe, or all the stats, or none at all.

MJD has been playing behind a SIGNIFICANTLY worse offensive line, though. You don't think that Minnesota's offensive line would be worth .4 more yards per carry? You're also ignoring my claims that MJD's ypc totals are hurt by the fact that he's used so much in short yardage (where a 1, 2, or 3 yard carry is a huge success) and goal line situations (where it's impossible to get a carry of over 10 yards at the very most).

Peterson has been facing 8 men in the box every time too.. Vikings havent had a QB/passing threat. I think Favre opens this up and gives AP even more YPC. I also like the fact that the has been a lot of reports about how hard AP has been working on his passing game. I think you will see his catches go up.

 

[captbly]

I'd be interested to see how many times ADP was pulled at the goal line because he had just ripped off a long run to get the team in that position.

I was going to say the same. It happened ALOT last year.

 

[twbillingsley]

I am in a td heavy league

1 pt for 25 yds rush and receiving.

6pt td

Last year Top 6

1. D. Williams

2. M. Turner

3. B. Jacobs

4. T. Jones

5.L. White

6. M.J.D.

15. A. Peterson

I am having a hard time picking him at 1 in this format.

I dont like D Williams playoff schedule M. Turner appears to be better down the stretch.

M.J.D. finished #6 in this format. I am thinking of taking him #1 overal considering his schedule down the stretch and the Jags should have something to play for at the end of the year.

 

[Northbound Train]

It's neither disingenuous nor careless. Over the past two seasons, Peterson has 27 carries inside the 10... and Chester Taylor has 26. Both backs have been equally effective (and neither back has really demonstrated an MJD-like nose for the end zone). Chester Taylor actually has MORE carries inside the 5 than Peterson over that span, and Peterson's 12 carries inside the 5 since 2007 rank him tied for 37th in the NFL with... wait for it... Pierre Thomas and LaMont Jordan, just behind Dominic Rhodes and Reggie Bush. I don't think it's the slightest bit disingenuous to question whether Peterson is a 20-TD back when he hasn't even secured goal-line duties yet. When I say he's "never" had more than 13 TDs, what I'm really saying is that he has yet to show that he's going to be a Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, or even Maurice Jones-Drew- a guy who is option 1, 2, and 3 in the red zone (and option 5, too, for good measure).

Where are those numbers available

 

[Northbound Train]

OK...I've got the first pick in a pretty competitive league and was going AP w/o a question until reading this thread...then I started to waver for a minute. Lots of good points either way but then I stumbled across this and this finalized my decision.

We play 0.5 PPR BTW

Jones-Drew ~ 3 yr avg

Situation .........G ..... Rush ...Yds ... Avg.... TD

Carry 1-5 ...... 31.... 153 ....628 ..... 4.1 .......6

Carry 6-10 ...... 27... 125 ....618 ......4.9 .......12

Carry 11-15..... 19... 56 ......249 ......4.4 ...... 3

Carry 16-20..... 6..... 25 .....87 .......3.5 .......0

Carry 21-25..... 2..... 5 .......10 .......2.0 .......0

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7809/s...StOot4?year=avg

Peterson

Situation .........G ..... Rush ...Yds ... Avg.... TD

Carry 1-5 ...... 30.... 150 ....698 ..... 4.7 .......5

Carry 6-10 ...... 30... 149 ....861 ......5.8 .......5

Carry 11-15..... 29... 130 .....648 ......5.0 ...... 3

Carry 16-20..... 23..... 104 .....490 .....4.7 .......6

Carry 21-25..... 13..... 48 .....241 ....5.0 .........1

Carry 26-30 ........5.........20 ....163....8.2...........2

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8261/s...LYF?year=career

You can clearly see that AP is as strong late in the game and actually gets stronger as he gets more carries...MJD has such a small sample size, has never cracked 200 carries or 1000 yards and now some are going to anoint him the #1 Back in FF I realize his role will increase but we haven't seen him carry the rock 300 times...or even 200 for that matter, this kid may very well break down as the season wears on as he certainly does when he carries the ball over 15x/game.

This is a no-brainer

 

[Instinctive]

OK...I've got the first pick in a pretty competitive league and was going AP w/o a question until reading this thread...then I started to waver for a minute. Lots of good points either way but then I stumbled across this and this finalized my decision.

We play 0.5 PPR BTW

Jones-Drew ~ 3 yr avg

Situation .........G ..... Rush ...Yds ... Avg.... TD

Carry 1-5 ...... 31.... 153 ....628 ..... 4.1 .......6

Carry 6-10 ...... 27... 125 ....618 ......4.9 .......12

Carry 11-15..... 19... 56 ......249 ......4.4 ...... 3

Carry 16-20..... 6..... 25 .....87 .......3.5 .......0

Carry 21-25..... 2..... 5 .......10 .......2.0 .......0

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7809/s...StOot4?year=avg

Peterson

Situation .........G ..... Rush ...Yds ... Avg.... TD

Carry 1-5 ...... 30.... 150 ....698 ..... 4.7 .......5

Carry 6-10 ...... 30... 149 ....861 ......5.8 .......5

Carry 11-15..... 29... 130 .....648 ......5.0 ...... 3

Carry 16-20..... 23..... 104 .....490 .....4.7 .......6

Carry 21-25..... 13..... 48 .....241 ....5.0 .........1

Carry 26-30 ........5.........20 ....163....8.2...........2

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8261/s...LYF?year=career

You can clearly see that AP is as strong late in the game and actually gets stronger as he gets more carries...MJD has such a small sample size, has never cracked 200 carries or 1000 yards and now some are going to anoint him the #1 Back in FF I realize his role will increase but we haven't seen him carry the rock 300 times...or even 200 for that matter, this kid may very well break down as the season wears on as he certainly does when he carries the ball over 15x/game.

This is a no-brainer

And by good I mean great.

 

[captbly]

You can clearly see that AP is as strong late in the game and actually gets stronger as he gets more carries...MJD has such a small sample size, has never cracked 200 carries or 1000 yards and now some are going to anoint him the #1 Back in FF I realize his role will increase but we haven't seen him carry the rock 300 times...or even 200 for that matter, this kid may very well break down as the season wears on as he certainly does when he carries the ball over 15x/game.This is a no-brainer

I think your right. My draft is tomorrow AM and I think I have to go AP

 

[SSOG]

It's neither disingenuous nor careless. Over the past two seasons, Peterson has 27 carries inside the 10... and Chester Taylor has 26. Both backs have been equally effective (and neither back has really demonstrated an MJD-like nose for the end zone). Chester Taylor actually has MORE carries inside the 5 than Peterson over that span, and Peterson's 12 carries inside the 5 since 2007 rank him tied for 37th in the NFL with... wait for it... Pierre Thomas and LaMont Jordan, just behind Dominic Rhodes and Reggie Bush. I don't think it's the slightest bit disingenuous to question whether Peterson is a 20-TD back when he hasn't even secured goal-line duties yet. When I say he's "never" had more than 13 TDs, what I'm really saying is that he has yet to show that he's going to be a Shaun Alexander, LaDanian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, or even Maurice Jones-Drew- a guy who is option 1, 2, and 3 in the red zone (and option 5, too, for good measure).

Where are those numbers available

If you have a FBGs subscription, you have access to their Data Dominator and Historical Data Dominator tools. I say it every year, but they're worth the price of subscription on their own.

OK...I've got the first pick in a pretty competitive league and was going AP w/o a question until reading this thread...then I started to waver for a minute. Lots of good points either way but then I stumbled across this and this finalized my decision.

We play 0.5 PPR BTW

Jones-Drew ~ 3 yr avg

Situation .........G ..... Rush ...Yds ... Avg.... TD

Carry 1-5 ...... 31.... 153 ....628 ..... 4.1 .......6

Carry 6-10 ...... 27... 125 ....618 ......4.9 .......12

Carry 11-15..... 19... 56 ......249 ......4.4 ...... 3

Carry 16-20..... 6..... 25 .....87 .......3.5 .......0

Carry 21-25..... 2..... 5 .......10 .......2.0 .......0

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7809/s...StOot4?year=avg

Peterson

Situation .........G ..... Rush ...Yds ... Avg.... TD

Carry 1-5 ...... 30.... 150 ....698 ..... 4.7 .......5

Carry 6-10 ...... 30... 149 ....861 ......5.8 .......5

Carry 11-15..... 29... 130 .....648 ......5.0 ...... 3

Carry 16-20..... 23..... 104 .....490 .....4.7 .......6

Carry 21-25..... 13..... 48 .....241 ....5.0 .........1

Carry 26-30 ........5.........20 ....163....8.2...........2

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8261/s...LYF?year=career

You can clearly see that AP is as strong late in the game and actually gets stronger as he gets more carries...MJD has such a small sample size, has never cracked 200 carries or 1000 yards and now some are going to anoint him the #1 Back in FF I realize his role will increase but we haven't seen him carry the rock 300 times...or even 200 for that matter, this kid may very well break down as the season wears on as he certainly does when he carries the ball over 15x/game.

This is a no-brainer

Jones-Drew's situational splits aren't really relevant, seeing as in only 6 games in his entire career has he gotten even 16 carries. Those carry splits don't really carry a lot of weight with me. What *DOES* carry a lot of weight with me is that Jones-Drew was a #1 fantasy RB as a part timer, and now he's getting a featured workload. Sure, you can say that he might break down because of the workload, but at the end of the day, more workload is always a good thing. Always. If given a choice between a guy in line for 350 and a comparable guy in line for 300 touches, I'll take the 350. Between 300 and 250, I'll take the 300. Between 250 and 200, I'll take 250... and so on down the line. Sure, he MAY break down with more touches, but generally, head coaches only give a high workload to RBs who can handle a high workload (for instance, last year, most of the RBs who got injured and missed time were only on pace for ~250 carries, whereas most of the RBs on pace for 300+ carries didn't miss any time). If Del Rio thinks MJD can handle a 250-300 carry workload, then I definitely believe that MJD can handle the workload, and split stats that show that he didn't have a great ypc over a 30-carry sample don't really convince me otherwise. Especially given how much better Jacksonville's offensive line is going to be this season.

 

[JMJ]

Thanks for all the awesome back and forth in this thread. My mind is still not made up 100%. Again, no PPR for me. If it was a PPR I'd be taking MJD without a thought.

One more thing (other than all the others I listed in the OP and all of you have said since) that has me leaning toward MJD is my draft is tomorrow night at 7:30pm. AP's game doesn't start until 8pm. I know MJD has made it through the preseason healthy. I'd want to strangle someone if I went AP instead and he injures a knee or pulls a hammy in his Monday night game 30 minutes after I drafted him.

That is REALLY bothering me. Anyone think I'm thinking about it too much or do you see where I'm coming from?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Thanks for all the awesome back and forth in this thread. My mind is still not made up 100%. Again, no PPR for me. If it was a PPR I'd be taking MJD without a thought.One more thing (other than all the others I listed in the OP and all of you have said since) that has me leaning toward MJD is my draft is tomorrow night at 7:30pm. AP's game doesn't start until 8pm. I know MJD has made it through the preseason healthy. I'd want to strangle someone if I went AP instead and he injures a knee or pulls a hammy in his Monday night game 30 minutes after I drafted him.That is REALLY bothering me. Anyone think I'm thinking about it too much or do you see where I'm coming from?

I think you're getting lost in micro details, but then I'm a big picture guy.In the big picture, you are telling yourself you're going to take MJD over ADP in a non PPR situation. That's clinical insanity imo.

 

[JMJ]

Thanks for all the awesome back and forth in this thread. My mind is still not made up 100%. Again, no PPR for me. If it was a PPR I'd be taking MJD without a thought.One more thing (other than all the others I listed in the OP and all of you have said since) that has me leaning toward MJD is my draft is tomorrow night at 7:30pm. AP's game doesn't start until 8pm. I know MJD has made it through the preseason healthy. I'd want to strangle someone if I went AP instead and he injures a knee or pulls a hammy in his Monday night game 30 minutes after I drafted him.That is REALLY bothering me. Anyone think I'm thinking about it too much or do you see where I'm coming from?

I think you're getting lost in micro details, but then I'm a big picture guy.In the big picture, you are telling yourself you're going to take MJD over ADP in a non PPR situation. That's clinical insanity imo.

I think, and have listed the reasons why, MJD is going to have a better year and more fantasy points than AP. I truly believe that. So if I make my pick purely on who I think will have a better year, MJD is my man.On the flip side though, I think AP is the safer and more conservative play. I know with AP I'm getting 300+ carries, 1,500+ rushing yards and double digit TDs.It all boils down to whether (in my mind) I want to roll the dice or take the conservative play.

 

[captbly]

In the end I think this just comes down to your own gut feel or personal preference. Looking at Draft Dominator with PPR scoring of 1 point. DD recommends taking MJD #1.....BUT The points for MJD is 258.8 and AP is 256.2 neither one of these horses is really running away with it.

Oh just for fun.. Take away the PPR and DD says take AP over MJD with 233.5 points to 208.0 points.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Thanks for all the awesome back and forth in this thread. My mind is still not made up 100%. Again, no PPR for me. If it was a PPR I'd be taking MJD without a thought.

One more thing (other than all the others I listed in the OP and all of you have said since) that has me leaning toward MJD is my draft is tomorrow night at 7:30pm. AP's game doesn't start until 8pm. I know MJD has made it through the preseason healthy. I'd want to strangle someone if I went AP instead and he injures a knee or pulls a hammy in his Monday night game 30 minutes after I drafted him.

That is REALLY bothering me. Anyone think I'm thinking about it too much or do you see where I'm coming from?

I think you're getting lost in micro details, but then I'm a big picture guy.In the big picture, you are telling yourself you're going to take MJD over ADP in a non PPR situation. That's clinical insanity imo.

I think, and have listed the reasons why, MJD is going to have a better year and more fantasy points than AP. I truly believe that. So if I make my pick purely on who I think will have a better year, MJD is my man.On the flip side though, I think AP is the safer and more conservative play. I know with AP I'm getting 300+ carries, 1,500+ rushing yards and double digit TDs.

It all boils down to whether (in my mind) I want to roll the dice or take the conservative play.

I understand what you are saying. My point is you cannot in good conscience look away from the bolded...

 

[GDogg]

OK...I've got the first pick in a pretty competitive league and was going AP w/o a question until reading this thread...then I started to waver for a minute. Lots of good points either way but then I stumbled across this and this finalized my decision.

We play 0.5 PPR BTW

Jones-Drew ~ 3 yr avg

Situation .........G ..... Rush ...Yds ... Avg.... TD

Carry 1-5 ...... 31.... 153 ....628 ..... 4.1 .......6

Carry 6-10 ...... 27... 125 ....618 ......4.9 .......12

Carry 11-15..... 19... 56 ......249 ......4.4 ...... 3

Carry 16-20..... 6..... 25 .....87 .......3.5 .......0

Carry 21-25..... 2..... 5 .......10 .......2.0 .......0

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/7809/s...StOot4?year=avg

Peterson

Situation .........G ..... Rush ...Yds ... Avg.... TD

Carry 1-5 ...... 30.... 150 ....698 ..... 4.7 .......5

Carry 6-10 ...... 30... 149 ....861 ......5.8 .......5

Carry 11-15..... 29... 130 .....648 ......5.0 ...... 3

Carry 16-20..... 23..... 104 .....490 .....4.7 .......6

Carry 21-25..... 13..... 48 .....241 ....5.0 .........1

Carry 26-30 ........5.........20 ....163....8.2...........2

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8261/s...LYF?year=career

You can clearly see that AP is as strong late in the game and actually gets stronger as he gets more carries...MJD has such a small sample size, has never cracked 200 carries or 1000 yards and now some are going to anoint him the #1 Back in FF I realize his role will increase but we haven't seen him carry the rock 300 times...or even 200 for that matter, this kid may very well break down as the season wears on as he certainly does when he carries the ball over 15x/game.

This is a no-brainer

And by good I mean great.

If you are going to quote me in your signature, do it accurately. You changed what I wrote.

 

[Knobs]

I don't think anyone here can honestly say you're making a massive mistake taking either one. Some people prefer one over the other but they'll both finish amongst the best if they can stay healthy.

So take MJD. It's clear you just prefer him, even if the only thing that backs that up is your gut. Take the player you want and hope for the best. You really cannot go wrong with either one so just snag MJD and be done with it.

Personally, I'd take MJD but that's because I side with SSOG and say a rb needs to get loads of receptions to finish with a monster year. But there's really nothing wrong whatsoever with choosing either player.

 

[cubbie5150]

FWIW, yesterday, I took MJD @ 1.01 in a 12 team re-draft (.5 PPR; 6 pTs any TD).... In this league, we find out our draft position right before the draft starts (we draw cards in reverse order form previous year's finish; I picked 2nd to last, got the Ace, & chose to pick #1). So, I only had about 15 minutes to agonize over my choice. I'm relatively happy w/ my team (though my WR corps isn't as strong as I'd like); pretty damn good RB depth due to my league being WR/QB crazy this year.

 

[JMJ]

FWIW, yesterday, I took MJD @ 1.01 in a 12 team re-draft (.5 PPR; 6 pTs any TD).... In this league, we find out our draft position right before the draft starts (we draw cards in reverse order form previous year's finish; I picked 2nd to last, got the Ace, & chose to pick #1). So, I only had about 15 minutes to agonize over my choice. I'm relatively happy w/ my team (though my WR corps isn't as strong as I'd like); pretty damn good RB depth due to my league being WR/QB crazy this year.

If you didn't get .5 PPR do you think you'd have still gone MJD > AP?My draft is tonight and I am 100% doing it, just asking you though.

 

[Instinctive]

FWIW, yesterday, I took MJD @ 1.01 in a 12 team re-draft (.5 PPR; 6 pTs any TD).... In this league, we find out our draft position right before the draft starts (we draw cards in reverse order form previous year's finish; I picked 2nd to last, got the Ace, & chose to pick #1). So, I only had about 15 minutes to agonize over my choice. I'm relatively happy w/ my team (though my WR corps isn't as strong as I'd like); pretty damn good RB depth due to my league being WR/QB crazy this year.

If you didn't get .5 PPR do you think you'd have still gone MJD > AP?My draft is tonight and I am 100% doing it, just asking you though.

The difference maker for me is your yardage points. If rush rec are both 1/10, I think it is a gamble that could possibly pay off.If rec are worth any less though, you go AP. I have a .5 ppr, 1/15 rec and AP is a much safer choice with roughly equal upside after I did projections.If you rush vs rec is about equal though, go with who you like more.

 

[switz]

I don't think anyone here can honestly say you're making a massive mistake taking either one. Some people prefer one over the other but they'll both finish amongst the best if they can stay healthy.

So take MJD. It's clear you just prefer him, even if the only thing that backs that up is your gut. Take the player you want and hope for the best. You really cannot go wrong with either one so just snag MJD and be done with it.

I tihnk this is the first time I've ever posted this for you Knobs Really

 

[Northbound Train]

That explosive 75 yard jaunt on the first play sure looks nice

 

[Northbound Train]

If you have a FBGs subscription, you have access to their Data Dominator and Historical Data Dominator tools. I say it every year, but they're worth the price of subscription on their own.

I do and that's greattttttttt....thanks, lots of things on here that I have to still uncover.Thanks

 

[Gopher State]

Monster year for A.P. with Favre at the QB.

MJD is good, but not in same league as A.P.

 

[MrJamela]

I'm sorta wishing this game had been Friday.....

I took MJD first and I know I'm going to feel every one of these plays in my gut when I see them.

 

[Bizkiteer]

More food for thought, one could argue that better QB play in MIN also means less dump off type passes. So, that can throw a monkey wrench into the thought of Peterson having his rec #'s increased.

 

[JMJ]

Took MJD at 7:30 pm, AP ripped a 75 yard TD run at 8:12. Hee-larious.

Still feel good about the pick. If the draft was re-done right now I'd take MJD again.

 

[cubbie5150]

FWIW, yesterday, I took MJD @ 1.01 in a 12 team re-draft (.5 PPR; 6 pTs any TD).... In this league, we find out our draft position right before the draft starts (we draw cards in reverse order form previous year's finish; I picked 2nd to last, got the Ace, & chose to pick #1). So, I only had about 15 minutes to agonize over my choice. I'm relatively happy w/ my team (though my WR corps isn't as strong as I'd like); pretty damn good RB depth due to my league being WR/QB crazy this year.

If you didn't get .5 PPR do you think you'd have still gone MJD > AP?My draft is tonight and I am 100% doing it, just asking you though.

The difference maker for me is your yardage points. If rush rec are both 1/10, I think it is a gamble that could possibly pay off.If rec are worth any less though, you go AP. I have a .5 ppr, 1/15 rec and AP is a much safer choice with roughly equal upside after I did projections.If you rush vs rec is about equal though, go with who you like more.

Yep, I agree... I failed to mention that we also get the same 1 pt/10 yds receiving as we get for rushing. Add on the .5 PPR, and MJD barely won out over ADP for me. Really, it was so close I might as well have flipped a coin. I made up my mind & announced my pick; I always make fun of guys who are slow to pick in the early rounds, so I didn't want to be a hypocrite! All we can do is make our picks (after doing research), and then live with the results. No matter what, my decision to take MJD #1 overall was an informed one. I realize I could end up being wrong...and I'm not afraid of that

 

[Instinctive]

FWIW, yesterday, I took MJD @ 1.01 in a 12 team re-draft (.5 PPR; 6 pTs any TD).... In this league, we find out our draft position right before the draft starts (we draw cards in reverse order form previous year's finish; I picked 2nd to last, got the Ace, & chose to pick #1). So, I only had about 15 minutes to agonize over my choice. I'm relatively happy w/ my team (though my WR corps isn't as strong as I'd like); pretty damn good RB depth due to my league being WR/QB crazy this year.

If you didn't get .5 PPR do you think you'd have still gone MJD > AP?My draft is tonight and I am 100% doing it, just asking you though.

The difference maker for me is your yardage points. If rush rec are both 1/10, I think it is a gamble that could possibly pay off.If rec are worth any less though, you go AP. I have a .5 ppr, 1/15 rec and AP is a much safer choice with roughly equal upside after I did projections.

If you rush vs rec is about equal though, go with who you like more.

Yep, I agree... I failed to mention that we also get the same 1 pt/10 yds receiving as we get for rushing. Add on the .5 PPR, and MJD barely won out over ADP for me. Really, it was so close I might as well have flipped a coin. I made up my mind & announced my pick; I always make fun of guys who are slow to pick in the early rounds, so I didn't want to be a hypocrite! All we can do is make our picks (after doing research), and then live with the results. No matter what, my decision to take MJD #1 overall was an informed one. I realize I could end up being wrong...and I'm not afraid of that

Wow. This thread is first time I think I have seen you post and I already respect you more than like 75% of the board.Props to you

(not sarcasm)

 

[JMJ]

I realize I could end up being wrong...and I'm not afraid of that

Right. That is why I went with MJD also. I really think I'm right but I can live with it if I'm wrong. Great wording.

 

[fightingillini]

FWIW, yesterday, I took MJD @ 1.01 in a 12 team re-draft (.5 PPR; 6 pTs any TD).... In this league, we find out our draft position right before the draft starts (we draw cards in reverse order form previous year's finish; I picked 2nd to last, got the Ace, & chose to pick #1). So, I only had about 15 minutes to agonize over my choice. I'm relatively happy w/ my team (though my WR corps isn't as strong as I'd like); pretty damn good RB depth due to my league being WR/QB crazy this year.

If you didn't get .5 PPR do you think you'd have still gone MJD > AP?My draft is tonight and I am 100% doing it, just asking you though.

The difference maker for me is your yardage points. If rush rec are both 1/10, I think it is a gamble that could possibly pay off.If rec are worth any less though, you go AP. I have a .5 ppr, 1/15 rec and AP is a much safer choice with roughly equal upside after I did projections.If you rush vs rec is about equal though, go with who you like more.

Yep, I agree... I failed to mention that we also get the same 1 pt/10 yds receiving as we get for rushing. Add on the .5 PPR, and MJD barely won out over ADP for me. Really, it was so close I might as well have flipped a coin. I made up my mind & announced my pick; I always make fun of guys who are slow to pick in the early rounds, so I didn't want to be a hypocrite! All we can do is make our picks (after doing research), and then live with the results. No matter what, my decision to take MJD #1 overall was an informed one. I realize I could end up being wrong...and I'm not afraid of that

I followed my gut and took Jones Drew #1 in a PPR league. If it were a non PPR league, I would take Peterson. It's all scoring system driven.

 

[captbly]

After tonight I am happy with taking AP over MJD.

 

[jurb26]

After tonight I am happy with taking AP over MJD.

Why, MJD gets to play that Hou D twice.

 

[deadRED]

I'm in a PPR league and at this point would take MJD over AP.

AP's catches aren't going to go up much, if any. That was evident in last nights game.

Taylor is still gonna be the main 3rd down back.

And the 2nd TD drive before the half had Peterson watching it from the sidelines while

Taylor was catching passes from Favre, including the TD.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

I'm in a PPR league and at this point would take MJD over AP.AP's catches aren't going to go up much, if any. That was evident in last nights game.Taylor is still gonna be the main 3rd down back. And the 2nd TD drive before the half had Peterson watching it from the sidelines whileTaylor was catching passes from Favre, including the TD.

Was just ready to post the same thing. In PPR leagues, AP will lose 35-40 points to MJD in receptions. I don't think he'll make that up in total yardage and I can see the TD's being close, but I still give a slight edge to MJD for TD totals at the end of the year.

 

[RBM]

In any case, I'll go back to most "talented." What has he done? That's actually pretty irrelevant to the word, "talent." Peyton Manning's not the most talented QB in the league. Neither is Tom Brady or Drew Brees. But, all three of them are among the "best" QBs.I've watched a lot of football games. College and pro. I don't stare at statistics and make judgments based off that. I use my eyes and my knowledge of football. And, Maurice Drew is the most talented RB in the NFL. He has excellent speed. He has very good vision. He's one of the best receivers for a RB. He has excellent acceleration (not as good as Peterson). He's strong. He has excellent balance. I know all of this because I actually watch football. And, I also know what the word "talent" means.

This is probably the best post ever

 

[jurb26]

Right now in my PPR league here are the top 3 RBs:

1. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 81.1

2. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 78.8

3. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 77.3

Non PPR:

1. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 72.10

2. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 70.80

3. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 69.30

 

[JMJ]

I started this thread and the main point of my particular argument was that I was going to do select him #1 overall (which I did) in a NON PPR league. I think it is safe to say he was selected #1 overall in lots (if not most) PPR leagues ... my case was non PPR.

I made the selection, was happy with it then, waivered for a second after AP's week 1, but I am and will be perfectly happy with the selection I made now and moving forward.

My feelings were he'd finish with more fantasy points at the end of the year even without a PPR than AP would and I still think that is true.

 

[switz]

Dude, if you're going to quote a post try not to pick one line out of context. I gave all possible combinations of comparisons. And comparing one season to another player's career is not a good comparison at all. Its a larger sample size versus a smaller one.Compare the same seasons, or the whole careers of both, or...Try to read.

Actually, statistically speaking, a sample size of 530 (MJD's career carry total) is more similar to a sample size of 363 (Peterson's totals last year) than a sample size of 197 (MJD's totals last year) is. There are valid reasons not to compare career totals to single-season totals (career totals encapsulate a lot of flux in supporting cast, for instance), but the size of the samples isn't one of those reasons.

Difference between 530 and 363 is 167, the difference between 363 and 197 is 166. I'm not sure how much one could argue that one number is statistically better than the other.

 

[switz]

I started this thread and the main point of my particular argument was that I was going to do select him #1 overall (which I did) in a NON PPR league. I think it is safe to say he was selected #1 overall in lots (if not most) PPR leagues ... my case was non PPR.

I made the selection, was happy with it then, waivered for a second after AP's week 1, but I am and will be perfectly happy with the selection I made now and moving forward.

My feelings were he'd finish with more fantasy points at the end of the year even without a PPR than AP would and I still think that is true.

I don't. But with both likely to finish in the top 3, and the point difference not being very large, either one was a decent pick, with AP being the slightly better pick of the two.

 

[SSOG]

Right now in my PPR league here are the top 3 RBs:

1. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 81.1

2. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 78.8

3. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 77.3

Non PPR:

1. Johnson, Chris TEN RB 72.10

2. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 70.80

3. Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 69.30

It's been much ado about nothing so far.

Difference between 530 and 363 is 167, the difference between 363 and 197 is 166. I'm not sure how much one could argue that one number is statistically better than the other.

It's not a linear relationship. 20 carries is 19 more than 1 carry, and 39 carries is 19 more than 20... but a 20 carry sample is exponentially better than a 1 carry sample, and a 39 carry sample is only slightly better than a 20 carry sample (for instance, if an RB is averaging 5 yards per carry over 39 carries or over 20 carries, it's roughly equally representative of his "true mean", whereas if an RB has one carry for 5 yards, that barely means anything at all).For all intents and purposes, there is no difference whatsoever between a sample of five million and a sample of five hundred trillion, despite the DRASTIC difference in the size of the samples (the second sample is 499,999,995,000,000 larger than the first). There's an unbelievable difference between a sample of 5 million and a sample of 1, though, despite the size difference being a paltry 4,999,999. The first disparity makes essentially no difference in our confidence in our conclusions, while the second difference boosts our confidence by 90+%, despite the fact that the first disparity is roughly a hundred million times larger than the second disparity. This is the principal that allows statisticians to make claims about a population of millions based on a survey of thousands- assuming a true random sampling with no selection biases and a survey which is likewise free of bias, then that's plenty large enough to give you a representative sample of the population as a whole with a +/- 1% margin and 95% confidence.

Basically, the larger the sample is, the lower the marginal gains you receive by increasing the sample size further.

 

[Instinctive]

Difference between 530 and 363 is 167, the difference between 363 and 197 is 166. I'm not sure how much one could argue that one number is statistically better than the other.

It's not a linear relationship. 20 carries is 19 more than 1 carry, and 39 carries is 19 more than 20... but a 20 carry sample is exponentially better than a 1 carry sample, and a 39 carry sample is only slightly better than a 20 carry sample (for instance, if an RB is averaging 5 yards per carry over 39 carries or over 20 carries, it's roughly equally representative of his "true mean", whereas if an RB has one carry for 5 yards, that barely means anything at all).For all intents and purposes, there is no difference whatsoever between a sample of five million and a sample of five hundred trillion, despite the DRASTIC difference in the size of the samples (the second sample is 499,999,995,000,000 larger than the first). There's an unbelievable difference between a sample of 5 million and a sample of 1, though, despite the size difference being a paltry 4,999,999. The first disparity makes essentially no difference in our confidence in our conclusions, while the second difference boosts our confidence by 90+%, despite the fact that the first disparity is roughly a hundred million times larger than the second disparity. This is the principal that allows statisticians to make claims about a population of millions based on a survey of thousands- assuming a true random sampling with no selection biases and a survey which is likewise free of bias, then that's plenty large enough to give you a representative sample of the population as a whole with a +/- 1% margin and 95% confidence.

Basically, the larger the sample is, the lower the marginal gains you receive by increasing the sample size further.

Except you also have to notice the similarities in samples. Should you compare one guy's 4th year to another's first year? When determining who is better over the course of careers up to a certain point and both have been in the league about the same amount of time.....It quite obviously makes the most sense to take their career numbers. Taking one guy's career and another guy's season is a terrible case of cherry picking stats.

 

[NeverEnough]

I see him as #2 overall w/AP being #1 & I own MJD. I have been thinking of trying to package him w/Roddy to get AP

 

[cubbie5150]

I'm not overly concerned, but are any fellow MJD owners worried about how good Rashad Jennings looked week 4 vs Titans? I'm not saying any kind of committee situation, but can anyone see Jennings taking goal-line duties, for example? Or does the Pool think this will remain a pure handcuff scenario? Maybe this deserves it's own thread?

 

[SSOG]

I'm not overly concerned, but are any fellow MJD owners worried about how good Rashad Jennings looked week 4 vs Titans? I'm not saying any kind of committee situation, but can anyone see Jennings taking goal-line duties, for example? Or does the Pool think this will remain a pure handcuff scenario? Maybe this deserves it's own thread?

Goal line carries are the most important carries in the entire game. MJD is the best goal line back in the game. I doubt the Jags overthink it. The only way Jennings is getting GL carries, imo, is if MJD breaks off a 50 yard run and gets tackled at the 1 and takes himself out for a breather.

 

[cubbie5150]

I'm not overly concerned, but are any fellow MJD owners worried about how good Rashad Jennings looked week 4 vs Titans? I'm not saying any kind of committee situation, but can anyone see Jennings taking goal-line duties, for example? Or does the Pool think this will remain a pure handcuff scenario? Maybe this deserves it's own thread?

Goal line carries are the most important carries in the entire game. MJD is the best goal line back in the game. I doubt the Jags overthink it. The only way Jennings is getting GL carries, imo, is if MJD breaks off a 50 yard run and gets tackled at the 1 and takes himself out for a breather.

I was thinking the same, but it's still good to hear someone as tuned-in as you say so. I actually wouldn't mind if RJ got some touches between the 20's...might help keep MJD fresh. It still may be a good idea for MJD owners to stash RJ on the bench after BYE weeks have passed, depending upon your RB depth, of course.

 

[JMJ]

I'm not overly concerned, but are any fellow MJD owners worried about how good Rashad Jennings looked week 4 vs Titans? I'm not saying any kind of committee situation, but can anyone see Jennings taking goal-line duties, for example? Or does the Pool think this will remain a pure handcuff scenario? Maybe this deserves it's own thread?

No way. MJD is as good as it comes in the NFL (maybe NFL history) at the goaline. I am not concerned with him losing GL carries to Jennings one bit.I am however VERY happy that Jennings looked as good as he did. In a 12 team league with 16 men rosters, having your top RBs handcuff is very important (to me at least - Any Gore/Coffee owners want to chime in?). The fact that Jennings looked so good makes me feel better about carrying him as my 16th man and makes me sliiiightly less nervous that should MJD go down, Jennings could come in and at least play at the NFL level.

 

[switz]

Difference between 530 and 363 is 167, the difference between 363 and 197 is 166. I'm not sure how much one could argue that one number is statistically better than the other.

It's not a linear relationship. 20 carries is 19 more than 1 carry, and 39 carries is 19 more than 20... but a 20 carry sample is exponentially better than a 1 carry sample, and a 39 carry sample is only slightly better than a 20 carry sample (for instance, if an RB is averaging 5 yards per carry over 39 carries or over 20 carries, it's roughly equally representative of his "true mean", whereas if an RB has one carry for 5 yards, that barely means anything at all).For all intents and purposes, there is no difference whatsoever between a sample of five million and a sample of five hundred trillion, despite the DRASTIC difference in the size of the samples (the second sample is 499,999,995,000,000 larger than the first). There's an unbelievable difference between a sample of 5 million and a sample of 1, though, despite the size difference being a paltry 4,999,999. The first disparity makes essentially no difference in our confidence in our conclusions, while the second difference boosts our confidence by 90+%, despite the fact that the first disparity is roughly a hundred million times larger than the second disparity. This is the principal that allows statisticians to make claims about a population of millions based on a survey of thousands- assuming a true random sampling with no selection biases and a survey which is likewise free of bias, then that's plenty large enough to give you a representative sample of the population as a whole with a +/- 1% margin and 95% confidence.

Basically, the larger the sample is, the lower the marginal gains you receive by increasing the sample size further.

Except you also have to notice the similarities in samples. Should you compare one guy's 4th year to another's first year? When determining who is better over the course of careers up to a certain point and both have been in the league about the same amount of time.....It quite obviously makes the most sense to take their career numbers. Taking one guy's career and another guy's season is a terrible case of cherry picking stats.

Agreed... SSOG is horrible at cherry picking stats.