My Dynasty RB List -- PPR (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

My list will definitely look different than some. I posted the same thing on my WR list. On this list, however, I lose interest in RB's considerably higher than in the WR's. In fact, I don't have much interest to be heavily invested at RB on any team unless I've got some of the top 10-15 guys. Even with team makeup, this list doesn't change nearly as much as my WR list.

Tier 1 -- Most don't like him as much in PPR, but to me Peterson is still the #1 RB to own. I think he's still only scratched the surface and his receiving ability is not an issue, IMO. Once Chester fades away, which I think begins this year, we'll see him more involved in the passing game as well. Most capable of 2000/20 of all the RBs listed.

Adrian Peterson

Tier 2 -- I've seen him go as the RB1 in many PPR dynasty startups. I don't have an issue with it as I have him almost tied with AP, but still the #2 guy. This guy does everything you want in a RB. I hope he doesn't lose his effectiveness with more carries, but I don't think that will be the case.

MJD

Tier 3 -- Some have SJax this high while others are much more down on him. To me, given his age and his potential to be the #1 overall RB, I still don't see a better option. DeAngelo, likewise, I know most people have lower. I think he has the safest floor out of any RB not named Peterson and I don't think approaching last year's #'s are out of the question for his ability. I also don't think we see him paired with Stewart for much longer as I can't see Carolina locking up big $$ for both guys. It's possible we see him in another uniform as early as next year.

S. Jackson

DeAngelo Williams

Tier 4 -- Chris Johnson is an amazingly exciting player and I wish I owned him in a league or two. I don't think he's a fluke at all. At the same time, I don't know if he'll ever outproduce this high ranking. So, while I love the kid, I also think there's a slight amount of "overvalued" to him. In other words, for the price it would cost to obtain him, I'd rather pay a little more if need be for the guys above. I think this is why I don't own him anywhere. That said, I think he's for real and will stick around for a while. Likewise, I'm not as high on Turner as others and think he's a bit overvalued, esp. in PPR, nor do I think he repeats his #'s from last year. Still, he's going to get a heavy workload and his situation is rock solid. Gore has slipped a bunch in many rankings. Not for me. Again, it's the safe floor, the proven track record, and the chance to finish top 3-5 that has him this high for me. Finally, I'm not as high on Forte as many others, but his situation can't be denied. Much like the others in this group except for Gore, I think his pricetag is too high as well and a big reason why I don't own any of the guys in this tier on any of my teams.

Chris Johnson

Michael Turner

Frank Gore

Matt Forte

Tier 5 -- This is my value tier. Guys I like considerably more than others. I think all 3 are pretty underrated and make ideal RB2's. Slaton is a dynamic runner who also has more power than most people think. Many have downgraded him thinking he'll be losing carries to a bigger RB, but I trust his ability enough to know that he will keep himself on the field with his production. I've been a big fan of Jacobs for a while and love what he brings when he's on the field. I don't mind his potential to miss 2-3 games knowing that the rest of the time he's a virtual lock for 100/1 every week. As for Kevin Smith, I've been a fan of his since before the draft and back when he wasn't even considered a decent rookie pick last year. Unfortunately, I sold a bit too early in a couple leagues I grabbed him in, but love his talent and what he brings.

Slaton

Kevin Smith

Jacobs

Tier 6 -- This is an eclectic mix of guys. You've got the #1 rookie RB in a pretty decent situation. I'm not sold on him enough personally but there are enough others that are that I'll go with the flow on him for now. Then you've got one of my favorites in Pierre Thomas. I probably have him much higher than most but I've liked him since I first saw him in preseason in 2007 and have had him stashed since then in many a league. I think he's going to make a believer out of a lot of people this year. You've got a top rookie from 1 year ago stuck behind another elite RB. I think in another situation, he'd be a top 5 RB. I probably have him too low to be honest but I can't justify moving him much higher at this point. That being said, depending on team makeup, he's the guy that I think moves the most if I'm in a complete rebuild as he would shoot up these rankings. You've got a starting RB who's stuck in a timeshare and whose value has fallen. Barber is not a guy I'm terribly comfortable with overall but I think you could do much worse.

Moreno

P. Thomas

Stewart

Barber

Tier 7 -- This one should have some head scratching. The biggest one is Ryan Grant. I was very high on him last year but came away quite disappointed. I've remained with a bit of a sour taste in my mouth bc of it until recently when I've reexamined his situation and think there is still plenty to like. As for Bush, there is huge risk here but his PPR prowess can't be denied. This is the one ranking I'm probably the least comfortable with and admittedly probably have him much higher than he should be. Portis's track record speaks for itself. Many are concerned about his workload, but he's STILL only 27 and does nothing but produce. If not for his terrible trade value, I'd have him higher. Portis's perception in the dynasty community is a dilemma that I just can't explain. I've moved him up some but I can't say I'd honestly trade any of the guys above him for Portis at this time. Lynch is just a guy I've never been much of a fan of and have though he's been overvalued. But, at RB18, I think he makes an ideal RB2. McFadden is the one in this tier that I think has the chance to shoot up the most. I also think he has the chance to fall the most in this group. If he were my RB2, I'd definitely want a stable RB3 to protect myself. Then comes Brown. I'm generally not very high on rookies but I like him a LOT. I think when it's all said and done, he may end up the #1 RB from this class.

Ryan Grant

Reggie Bush

Portis

Lynch

McFadden

Donald Brown

Tier 8 -- Another group that doesn't have much in common with each other. First comes Ronnie Brown. If you haven't already seen, I'm not a big Ronnie Brown fan at all and think he's entirely overrated and just doesn't deliver. That said, he still has upside. Compared to Portis, he carries much more trade value, but in terms of production and age, Portis clearly has the advantage. This year will be interesting to watch. Felix Jones is someone I've warmed up to considerably and think he could be special if given the chance. I don't see it coming soon, but you never know. As for Chris Wells, this is mostly due to value and his situation as the unquestioned starter. I'm not a big fan of his talent, though.

Ronnie Brown

Felix Jones

Chris Wells

Tier 9 -- Most of the oldie but goodies. At this point, if a team is a competing, give me LT all day here. Even if not, unless the right value comes back, I don't mind keeping him here. D. Ward is a RB I like a lot but wish his situation was just a little more clear at this point. I think he could move up a good bit if he wins the job outright. I've never been a fan of Addai, but at this point of the rankings, I'd own him as a RB3. LJ makes me scratch my head but he has the most potential out of any of the RB's left to put up big #'s aside from Westy. I've never been a Mendenhall fan at all and think he's still overrated, but there's just not much after him here so I'll take a shot on him. And then there's Westy. It's a shame he has to go this low but the recent news of the ankle is very worrisome to me. Just can't justify having him any higher at this point.

LT

D. Ward

Addai

LJ

Mendenhall

Westbrook

Tier 10-- This is the "upside" group. While they have upside, not guys I'd bet heavily on. I'm not sold on Rice like many others but no one deserves to be higher than him at this point. I'm higher on Leon than most, but if it doesn't happen this year, it's probably never going to happen while he remains a NYJ. I'm not a Greene fan and think he's being very overvalued. His spot here is more for trade value than anything.

R. Rice

Leon Washington

Greene

Tier 11 -- This is a whole bunch of "meh" for the most part. Bye week fill-ins and possible potential but no one I'm excited about and would sell any of these for any sort of return. Yes, I'm not a McCoy fan. Bush and Sproles are the guys I like the most here but even their prospects are slim to being very fantasy relevant.

T. Jones

Benson

LenDale

McCoy

Sproles

Michael Bush

Jamal Lewis

Again, welcome any comments or questions on these.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

nice list.

intrigued at no benson discussion for his meh. I'd have him a couple tiers higher.

 

[gianmarco]

nice list.intrigued at no benson discussion for his meh. I'd have him a couple tiers higher.

I think Cincinnati is a mess. I think Benson is only a slightly above average talent. I think he's a headcase. And I think he has some competition for a job that isn't securely his. Lots of risk and little reason for optimism or upside. Lots of people are slightly bullish on Benson because of what he did last year. I see a 3.5 ypc and 3 decent games that were all a result of a large load of carries (especially 38 carries for 171 yds).He certainly could keep the job and do well with it, but exactly how well could he really do? RB 15-20 range at best? Not sure how high you'd like to see him. Where would you put him on that list?

 

[Darker Knight]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

 

[ookook]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

24 RBs in front of Westbrook in PPR? Getting him in the 3rd round of a start-up dynasty will help you win for the next 3 years running.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I lik the list. My only critique would be to have Portis and LT2 a couple of tiers higher. In no way are they in the same tier as Derrick Ward, Ronnie Brown, and Chris Wells!

 

[Darker Knight]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

24 RBs in front of Westbrook in PPR? Getting him in the 3rd round of a start-up dynasty will help you win for the next 3 years running.

I think Westy is going more in the 5th or 6th round in most start up dynasty leagues. I see that as a steal for a win now team

 

[gianmarco]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

24 RBs in front of Westbrook in PPR? Getting him in the 3rd round of a start-up dynasty will help you win for the next 3 years running.

I'm assuming you didn't read what I wrote about Westy above. If not for the latest news on the ankle surgery and the possibility he's not even there for the season opener, I'd have him higher. But, the word is that it's a serious injury, serious surgery, and I wouldn't be surprised if he never recovers fully from it and regains his productivity.

 

[Darker Knight]

I lik the list. My only critique would be to have Portis and LT2 a couple of tiers higher. In no way are they in the same tier as Derrick Ward, Ronnie Brown, and Chris Wells!

Could not agree more...Portis and LT are low IMO...Portis is 27 is that the new 30 for Rb's?

 

[gianmarco]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

Same reason I have an even younger one in the same tier as Addai. Has nothing to do with the Colts (although I know you know this). I don't see Addai as the starting RB by the end of the year. Notice I have his counterpart 2 tiers higher and I'm quite high on him (despite being a Colt).

 

[gianmarco]

I lik the list. My only critique would be to have Portis and LT2 a couple of tiers higher. In no way are they in the same tier as Derrick Ward, Ronnie Brown, and Chris Wells!

Could not agree more...Portis and LT are low IMO...Portis is 27 is that the new 30 for Rb's?

Tier 8 -- Portis's track record speaks for itself. Many are concerned about his workload, but he's STILL only 27 and does nothing but produce. If not for his terrible trade value, I'd have him higher. Portis's perception in the dynasty community is a dilemma that I just can't explain.

 

[Darker Knight]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

24 RBs in front of Westbrook in PPR? Getting him in the 3rd round of a start-up dynasty will help you win for the next 3 years running.

I'm assuming you didn't read what I wrote about Westy above. If not for the latest news on the ankle surgery and the possibility he's not even there for the season opener, I'd have him higher. But, the word is that it's a serious injury, serious surgery, and I wouldn't be surprised if he never recovers fully from it and regains his productivity.

So why is LT not higher.....from everything we have heard he is healthy. LT has never missed time like Westy. Based on that if you would put Westy higher if he was healthy should that not mean that LT should be higher?

 

[gianmarco]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

24 RBs in front of Westbrook in PPR? Getting him in the 3rd round of a start-up dynasty will help you win for the next 3 years running.

I'd wager anything you'd like that Westbrook will not be a fantasy factor (top 20 RB) in 2 yrs, let alone 3 yrs.

 

[gianmarco]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

24 RBs in front of Westbrook in PPR? Getting him in the 3rd round of a start-up dynasty will help you win for the next 3 years running.

I'm assuming you didn't read what I wrote about Westy above. If not for the latest news on the ankle surgery and the possibility he's not even there for the season opener, I'd have him higher. But, the word is that it's a serious injury, serious surgery, and I wouldn't be surprised if he never recovers fully from it and regains his productivity.

So why is LT not higher.....from everything we have heard he is healthy. LT has never missed time like Westy. Based on that if you would put Westy higher if he was healthy should that not mean that LT should be higher?

LT is not higher because of the recent injury history and his age and also his current trade value. I own him in a couple of leagues where I'll be quite competitive, but otherwise, I'd move him if I could get decent value. I don't see him sustaining his past production like others do. He could, but I just don't feel comfortable with him.

 

[ookook]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

24 RBs in front of Westbrook in PPR? Getting him in the 3rd round of a start-up dynasty will help you win for the next 3 years running.

I'd wager anything you'd like that Westbrook will not be a fantasy factor (top 20 RB) in 2 yrs, let alone 3 yrs.

You and everyone else for the past three years running. And they were wrong. But I would gladly bet you that in 2010 he will be a top 20 back in PPR.Westbrook was 2nd in PPG in PPRs last year and started all but 2 games. He was 2nd in PPG in PPR the year before starting all but 1 games.Whyever would you imagine he has only 1 season left? Oh yeah, youth equals great dynasty value and experience and past history equal deth knell. I remember now.

 

[gianmarco]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

24 RBs in front of Westbrook in PPR? Getting him in the 3rd round of a start-up dynasty will help you win for the next 3 years running.

I'd wager anything you'd like that Westbrook will not be a fantasy factor (top 20 RB) in 2 yrs, let alone 3 yrs.

You and everyone else for the past three years running. And they were wrong. But I would gladly bet you that in 2010 he will be a top 20 back in PPR.Westbrook was 2nd in PPG in PPRs last year and started all but 2 games. He was 2nd in PPG in PPR the year before starting all but 1 games.Whyever would you imagine he has only 1 season left? Oh yeah, youth equals great dynasty value and experience and past history equal deth knell. I remember now.

Again, you've got my take on dynasty and age completely wrong. I do NOT value youth much at all. My teams are littered with guys like Holt, Moss, Warner, Tony Gonzalez, TO, and others. So no, not me and everyone else for the past 3 yrs running. Westy was a guy I owned myself and loved him. I've argued for holding him while others were afraid of him. You are 100% wrong on your characterization on that standpoint. If you don't believe it, do a simple search going back to last year on my posts regarding him.At the same time, there comes a time where you have to realize the end is coming near. To, me that time has come for Westy. This recent injury news is a MAJOR concern. It's not minor like he's had in the past. Thus, at this point, I don't want anything to do with him anymore. He could definitely remain a top 5 RB, but I'm ok if I'm wrong and that happens. I think the risk far outweighs the benefits at this point in time. I have guys like Westy, T. Jones, and Jamal Lewis ranked very close to the #3 and #4 rookie RBs for this year. I have guys like LJ and LT ahead of young rookies who most love like Ray Rice and Mendenhall. I don't have more than 5 rookie RB's listed nor do I have more than 3 rookie WR's listed. If you pull up most lists, these younger RBs and rookies are ranked far higher than I have them. As I said, you can ask most anyone here that's in any leagues with me that I have a higher % of older players than most any team in the league. It's all about balance. I try not to be too old or too young but just right with good turnover to not lose too much value. Some guys I ride to the end (Warner, Moss, TO) and others I try to gain some value now before it deteriorates (LT, Wayne, Gates).

 

[FUBAR]

I lik the list. My only critique would be to have Portis and LT2 a couple of tiers higher. In no way are they in the same tier as Derrick Ward, Ronnie Brown, and Chris Wells!

Could not agree more...Portis and LT are low IMO...Portis is 27 is that the new 30 for Rb's?

Tier 8 -- Portis's track record speaks for itself. Many are concerned about his workload, but he's STILL only 27 and does nothing but produce. If not for his terrible trade value, I'd have him higher. Portis's perception in the dynasty community is a dilemma that I just can't explain.

Portis is an interesting cat. I'm no Redskins fan, but I like the guy, he's exactly the kind of teammate I'd love to have and he's productive. He's not old, but he seems pigeonholed in the category of BW and LT. I'll take his value everyday in most leagues and I wouldn't let his perceived trade value dictate where I rank him. I might realize I can get him cheap, but once I have him I wouldn't trade him for tier 8 value.

 

[gianmarco]

I lik the list. My only critique would be to have Portis and LT2 a couple of tiers higher. In no way are they in the same tier as Derrick Ward, Ronnie Brown, and Chris Wells!

Could not agree more...Portis and LT are low IMO...Portis is 27 is that the new 30 for Rb's?

Tier 8 -- Portis's track record speaks for itself. Many are concerned about his workload, but he's STILL only 27 and does nothing but produce. If not for his terrible trade value, I'd have him higher. Portis's perception in the dynasty community is a dilemma that I just can't explain.

Portis is an interesting cat. I'm no Redskins fan, but I like the guy, he's exactly the kind of teammate I'd love to have and he's productive. He's not old, but he seems pigeonholed in the category of BW and LT. I'll take his value everyday in most leagues and I wouldn't let his perceived trade value dictate where I rank him. I might realize I can get him cheap, but once I have him I wouldn't trade him for tier 8 value.

You're right about this and I should really consider moving him up. He will likely put up another top 5-10 RB season again and then the talk will be there same time next year how THIS is the year the wheels fall off. And he'll still only be 28.

 

[Darker Knight]

I lik the list. My only critique would be to have Portis and LT2 a couple of tiers higher. In no way are they in the same tier as Derrick Ward, Ronnie Brown, and Chris Wells!

Could not agree more...Portis and LT are low IMO...Portis is 27 is that the new 30 for Rb's?

Tier 8 -- Portis's track record speaks for itself. Many are concerned about his workload, but he's STILL only 27 and does nothing but produce. If not for his terrible trade value, I'd have him higher. Portis's perception in the dynasty community is a dilemma that I just can't explain.

Portis is an interesting cat. I'm no Redskins fan, but I like the guy, he's exactly the kind of teammate I'd love to have and he's productive. He's not old, but he seems pigeonholed in the category of BW and LT. I'll take his value everyday in most leagues and I wouldn't let his perceived trade value dictate where I rank him. I might realize I can get him cheap, but once I have him I wouldn't trade him for tier 8 value.

I don't see anyone trading Portis for tier 8 value........I would love to add him for that....

 

[gianmarco]

Could not agree more...Portis and LT are low IMO...Portis is 27 is that the new 30 for Rb's?

Tier 8 -- Portis's track record speaks for itself. Many are concerned about his workload, but he's STILL only 27 and does nothing but produce. If not for his terrible trade value, I'd have him higher. Portis's perception in the dynasty community is a dilemma that I just can't explain.

Portis is an interesting cat. I'm no Redskins fan, but I like the guy, he's exactly the kind of teammate I'd love to have and he's productive. He's not old, but he seems pigeonholed in the category of BW and LT. I'll take his value everyday in most leagues and I wouldn't let his perceived trade value dictate where I rank him. I might realize I can get him cheap, but once I have him I wouldn't trade him for tier 8 value.

I don't see anyone trading Portis for tier 8 value........I would love to add him for that....

Portis is at the TOP of tier 8. So you wouldn't be expecting to trade him for tier 8 value but instead for tier 7. As for the guys there, you can easily pull up some of the FBG staff rankings. Bloom, for example, has him about where I do and has all but 1 of the guys I have ahead of Portis ahead of him as well. Others are intermittently high on some and lower on others but none are very drastic overall. So just because YOU don't see anyone trading him for that value doesn't mean it doesn't or hasn't happened. It has. I currently have him around RB21 and I could see bumping him into the higher tier and probably will. That puts him in the RB15-20 range. Portis is just one of those guys that doesn't seem to fit. Put him too high, and he looks overvalued and you get stuck with him. Put him too low, and he easily outproduces it and makes you look silly. For that reason, I just seem to avoid him now although I will probably start to reconsider and may look at acquiring him in a few leagues if the price is right.

All that being said, I wouldn't presume to know what he's being traded for or where he's being valued if I were you because, while you may not agree, your statement isn't true. Unless you think one of the top FBG staff members is crazy too.

I actually don't have much issue with him being ranked as high as he is in some spots because his production justifies it. I have much less issue with him being that high than someone like Ronnie Brown or Roy Williams who does not justify it, IMO.

 

[Darker Knight]

Tier 8 -- Portis's track record speaks for itself. Many are concerned about his workload, but he's STILL only 27 and does nothing but produce. If not for his terrible trade value, I'd have him higher. Portis's perception in the dynasty community is a dilemma that I just can't explain.

Portis is an interesting cat. I'm no Redskins fan, but I like the guy, he's exactly the kind of teammate I'd love to have and he's productive. He's not old, but he seems pigeonholed in the category of BW and LT. I'll take his value everyday in most leagues and I wouldn't let his perceived trade value dictate where I rank him. I might realize I can get him cheap, but once I have him I wouldn't trade him for tier 8 value.

I don't see anyone trading Portis for tier 8 value........I would love to add him for that....

Portis is at the TOP of tier 8. So you wouldn't be expecting to trade him for tier 8 value but instead for tier 7. As for the guys there, you can easily pull up some of the FBG staff rankings. Bloom, for example, has him about where I do and has all but 1 of the guys I have ahead of Portis ahead of him as well. Others are intermittently high on some and lower on others but none are very drastic overall. So just because YOU don't see anyone trading him for that value doesn't mean it doesn't or hasn't happened. It has.

I currently have him around RB21 and I could see bumping him into the higher tier and probably will. That puts him in the RB15-20 range. Portis is just one of those guys that doesn't seem to fit. Put him too high, and he looks overvalued and you get stuck with him. Put him too low, and he easily outproduces it and makes you look silly. For that reason, I just seem to avoid him now although I will probably start to reconsider and may look at acquiring him in a few leagues if the price is right.

All that being said, I wouldn't presume to know what he's being traded for or where he's being valued if I were you because, while you may not agree, your statement isn't true. Unless you think one of the top FBG staff members is crazy too.

I actually don't have much issue with him being ranked as high as he is in some spots because his production justifies it. I have much less issue with him being that high than someone like Ronnie Brown or Roy Williams who does not justify it, IMO.

I don't think He is crazy just wrong...looking at the other's rankings they seem to be in the correct range for a player like Portis......Portis has finished outside the top 11 once in his career and only because he missed half the season. So unless you think he is going to get hurt and miss games I don't see any reason for him to be downgraded. And don't get me wrong we are seeing this everywhere in dynasty. I call it the SA effect.....I think a lot of people got stuck or saw other people get stuck with Alexander fell off the cliff. I also agree that every year from here on out Portis trade value will go down no matter what kind of numbers he puts up. Like I said to JPeso....when does a players actual production for your team out weigh his trade value....because at some point you have to decide trade for less than the player is worth or let them die on your roster.......

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Tier 2 -- I've seen him go as the RB1 in many PPR dynasty startups. I don't have an issue with it as I have him almost tied with AP, but still the #2 guy. This guy does everything you want in a RB. I hope he doesn't lose his effectiveness with more carries, but I don't think that will be the case.

MJD

I'm surprised you have MJD this high. He doesn't fit your general rule of having "been there/done that" before. I remember discussing Barber a year ago and noting that his effectiveness seemed to decrease with more carries. I wonder whether MJD will also experience the "Barber effect" with an increased load. Without the increase, it doesn't seem like he reaches #2 (in our 1/2 PPR, he's been 8, 12, and 6 the last 3 years).Some situational stats for MJD:

2006 Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st Attempts 1-Through-10 118 757 6.40 74 11 38 Attempts 11-Through-2 42 171 4.10 17 2 7 Attempts 21-Through-3 6 13 2.20 5 0 1 2007 Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st Attempts 1-Through-10 155 673 4.30 52 9 45 Attempts 11-Through-2 26 143 5.50 57 1 5 2008 Attempts 1-Through-10 137 621 4.50 46 10 37 Attempts 11-Through-2 55 193 3.50 18 2 9 Attempts 21-Through-3 5 10 2.00 6 0 1Only in 2007 does he look more effective with increased carries and that is skewed by fewer carries with 1 long run. If you combine all 3 years, it looks like he clearly he becomes less effective.Anyway, the point wasn't so much that I thought he wouldn't be as effective but that you have him ranked highly on potential that hasn't been realized, something you really haven't done with the rest of the RBs or WRs.

 

[jwb]

Jax is the one guy who's the enigma in your rankings. I personally think he's too high - I'm not going to draft Jax before CJ3 or Turner (even in PPR for Turner)

I think it might be time to admit that Jax is not this beast we make him out to be. Here are his last 4 seasons:

2008: 254 1043 7 40 379 1

2007: 237 1002 5 38 271 1

2006: 346 1528 13 90 806 3

2005: 254 1046 8 43 320 2

Three out of four years he's had about 250 carries, for a little over 1,000 yards, and about 7 TD's. Throw in about 40 catches and another TD or two. Nice numbers for sure, but not elite. The potential of another 2006 year is certainly tempting, but like I said, we're talking three out of four years of "nice but unspectacular" production. That might be all he's really going to be.

 

[gianmarco]

Tier 2 -- I've seen him go as the RB1 in many PPR dynasty startups. I don't have an issue with it as I have him almost tied with AP, but still the #2 guy. This guy does everything you want in a RB. I hope he doesn't lose his effectiveness with more carries, but I don't think that will be the case.

MJD

I'm surprised you have MJD this high. He doesn't fit your general rule of having "been there/done that" before. I remember discussing Barber a year ago and noting that his effectiveness seemed to decrease with more carries. I wonder whether MJD will also experience the "Barber effect" with an increased load. Without the increase, it doesn't seem like he reaches #2 (in our 1/2 PPR, he's been 8, 12, and 6 the last 3 years).Some situational stats for MJD:

2006 Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st Attempts 1-Through-10 118 757 6.40 74 11 38 Attempts 11-Through-2 42 171 4.10 17 2 7 Attempts 21-Through-3 6 13 2.20 5 0 1 2007 Att Yds Avg Lng TD 1st Attempts 1-Through-10 155 673 4.30 52 9 45 Attempts 11-Through-2 26 143 5.50 57 1 5 2008 Attempts 1-Through-10 137 621 4.50 46 10 37 Attempts 11-Through-2 55 193 3.50 18 2 9 Attempts 21-Through-3 5 10 2.00 6 0 1Only in 2007 does he look more effective with increased carries and that is skewed by fewer carries with 1 long run. If you combine all 3 years, it looks like he clearly he becomes less effective.Anyway, the point wasn't so much that I thought he wouldn't be as effective but that you have him ranked highly on potential that hasn't been realized, something you really haven't done with the rest of the RBs or WRs.

All valid points, but you're overlooking a few things that warrant where I have him. Some guys are ranked high because of their potential to finish as the #1 player at their position and their ability to put up big games and a big season. Other guys are ranked high because of their amazing consistency and "safety". Peyton Manning and LT fit that mold earlier in their careers. Despite not really finishing #1, they were consistently at the top and could be counted on game in and game out, year in and year out.That's what I see in MJD. Since he's rookie year, he's finished 8th, 13th, 9th in all 3 of his years in the league by FBG scoring. And that's NON-ppr. So, when you factor in the fact he's also had 40+ receptions every year and is coming off a 60+ reception year last year, those finishes would actually be a good bit higher. That's 3 top 10 finishes since he's been in the league. So, I don't think he'll ever finish as a top 2-3 RB in any given year (possible, but he's not a guy I would expect to). But, that doesn't mean he's not worth the #2 spot. What I'm much more sure of is that he'll remain a top 10 RB and probably closer to 5 with the increased touches he's expected to see. He may lose some effectiveness the more touches he get but overall they should balance out. Here is what I see in MJD:

--A complete RB. He runs, he catches, he blocks, he's a goalline RB, he's a home run threat, and he's durable.

--Career 4.8 ypc. His lowest ypc came last year at 4.2 when the O-line was completely decimated.

--Missed 1 game in 3 yrs

--1100-1400 combined yds in all 3 yrs

--40+ receptions each year

--TD totals of 15, 9, and 14 in those 3 yrs

Now you factor in he's only 24, his job is 100% secure, they have a healthier and improved O-line, an improved passing attack to take a little pressure off, and overall watching him you can tell he's just amazingly talented and built like a tank and I think he's one of the safest plays aside from AP and DeAngelo to succeed and not disappoint. That's why I have him where I do.

Looking at his running totals and ignoring his contribution in the passing game and receptions in a PPR league is only looking at half the picture. I would definitely like to see how he does in a full-time role, but even if he suffers from the "Barber effect", which is very possible, I don't think that will drop him any when you factor in the increased touches. Also, there were concerns about Barber doing what he did since the coaching staff continued to use him in a limited basis despite sharing time with a less effective and less talented RB in Julius Jones. Thus, there was actually an indication that there may be a letdown given how he ran and how the coaching staff used him with an increased load. With MJD, I'm not really sure that's the case as he was playing alongside a still very effective Fred Taylor. While he may suffer the "Barber effect", it's also fresh in our minds and not all RBs who get an increased load suffer as much as he did. In games last year where he had 17+ carries, he was actually quiet effective.

Hope that makes sense.

 

[gianmarco]

Jax is the one guy who's the enigma in your rankings. I personally think he's too high - I'm not going to draft Jax before CJ3 or Turner (even in PPR for Turner)

I think it might be time to admit that Jax is not this beast we make him out to be. Here are his last 4 seasons:

2008: 254 1043 7 40 379 1

2007: 237 1002 5 38 271 1

2006: 346 1528 13 90 806 3

2005: 254 1046 8 43 320 2

Three out of four years he's had about 250 carries, for a little over 1,000 yards, and about 7 TD's. Throw in about 40 catches and another TD or two. Nice numbers for sure, but not elite. The potential of another 2006 year is certainly tempting, but like I said, we're talking three out of four years of "nice but unspectacular" production. That might be all he's really going to be.

It's not just 2006 that was tempting. You're ignoring the fact he missed 4 games in each of the last 2 years. So, on a ppg basis he was actually "elite", not just nice. He was #8 in ppg in 2007. He was #3 in ppg in 2008. We all know how high he was in 2006. Two top 3 finishes in ppg in the last 3 years and all of of them top 8. This goes back to do you use PPG or season end totals and do we expect him to miss more time. The risk is definitely there or I would have him above MJD. But, this is the time I use PPG when the PPG actually point to elite production (not just "good" production like Roy Williams). This is why I still believed in AJ 2 yrs ago. Because when you looked at the PPG #'s, they pointed to something special if he ever put it together. I see the very same thing in SJax. To me, this is a make or break season for SJax. He needs to show he can play 14+ games. But, he's still young enough and has shown enough in the last 3 years to warrant me wanting to gamble on him. And, even if he DOES miss 4 games again like he did, I still don't think I've lost out when I consider the RB fill-in pts that I get to combine with SJax's ppg from the weeks he does play.

I just don't view CJ3 as having the ceiling that SJax does and, given that he's only done it 1 year, I'm not 100% convinced his floor is any safer either. I still like CJ3 a LOT, thus my high ranking for him, but a potentially similar floor and lower ceiling is why SJax > CJ3 for me. Very, very close, but I'll take the slight gamble. As for Turner, his lack of receptions, a likely decreased workload (which helped contribute to his big total #'s), and his age compared to those other 2 is why he's slightly lower.

 

[jwb]

Jax is the one guy who's the enigma in your rankings. I personally think he's too high - I'm not going to draft Jax before CJ3 or Turner (even in PPR for Turner)

I think it might be time to admit that Jax is not this beast we make him out to be. Here are his last 4 seasons:

2008: 254 1043 7 40 379 1

2007: 237 1002 5 38 271 1

2006: 346 1528 13 90 806 3

2005: 254 1046 8 43 320 2

Three out of four years he's had about 250 carries, for a little over 1,000 yards, and about 7 TD's. Throw in about 40 catches and another TD or two. Nice numbers for sure, but not elite. The potential of another 2006 year is certainly tempting, but like I said, we're talking three out of four years of "nice but unspectacular" production. That might be all he's really going to be.

It's not just 2006 that was tempting. You're ignoring the fact he missed 4 games in each of the last 2 years. So, on a ppg basis he was actually "elite", not just nice. He was #8 in ppg in 2007. He was #3 in ppg in 2008. We all know how high he was in 2006. Two top 3 finishes in ppg in the last 3 years and all of of them top 8. This goes back to do you use PPG or season end totals and do we expect him to miss more time. The risk is definitely there or I would have him above MJD. But, this is the time I use PPG when the PPG actually point to elite production (not just "good" production like Roy Williams). This is why I still believed in AJ 2 yrs ago. Because when you looked at the PPG #'s, they pointed to something special if he ever put it together. I see the very same thing in SJax. To me, this is a make or break season for SJax. He needs to show he can play 14+ games. But, he's still young enough and has shown enough in the last 3 years to warrant me wanting to gamble on him. And, even if he DOES miss 4 games again like he did, I still don't think I've lost out when I consider the RB fill-in pts that I get to combine with SJax's ppg from the weeks he does play.

I just don't view CJ3 as having the ceiling that SJax does and, given that he's only done it 1 year, I'm not 100% convinced his floor is any safer either. I still like CJ3 a LOT, thus my high ranking for him, but a potentially similar floor and lower ceiling is why SJax > CJ3 for me. Very, very close, but I'll take the slight gamble. As for Turner, his lack of receptions, a likely decreased workload (which helped contribute to his big total #'s), and his age compared to those other 2 is why he's slightly lower.

We are in definite agreement here - this is his last chance to justify his elite status. I own him in one league, and will be holding him in that one league for reasons you mentioned (he "can be" elite.)

 

[dickey moe]

Jax is the one guy who's the enigma in your rankings. I personally think he's too high - I'm not going to draft Jax before CJ3 or Turner (even in PPR for Turner)

I think it might be time to admit that Jax is not this beast we make him out to be. Here are his last 4 seasons:

2008: 254 1043 7 40 379 1

2007: 237 1002 5 38 271 1

2006: 346 1528 13 90 806 3

2005: 254 1046 8 43 320 2

Three out of four years he's had about 250 carries, for a little over 1,000 yards, and about 7 TD's. Throw in about 40 catches and another TD or two. Nice numbers for sure, but not elite. The potential of another 2006 year is certainly tempting, but like I said, we're talking three out of four years of "nice but unspectacular" production. That might be all he's really going to be.

Totally agree. Most overrated player in FF right now.

 

[gianmarco]

Jax is the one guy who's the enigma in your rankings. I personally think he's too high - I'm not going to draft Jax before CJ3 or Turner (even in PPR for Turner)

I think it might be time to admit that Jax is not this beast we make him out to be. Here are his last 4 seasons:

2008: 254 1043 7 40 379 1

2007: 237 1002 5 38 271 1

2006: 346 1528 13 90 806 3

2005: 254 1046 8 43 320 2

Three out of four years he's had about 250 carries, for a little over 1,000 yards, and about 7 TD's. Throw in about 40 catches and another TD or two. Nice numbers for sure, but not elite. The potential of another 2006 year is certainly tempting, but like I said, we're talking three out of four years of "nice but unspectacular" production. That might be all he's really going to be.

Totally agree. Most overrated player in FF right now.

Most overrated?Even with his recent struggles with injuries and missed time, his finishes in the last 3 years are:

2006--#2 RB overall (#2 in PPG)

2007--#15 RB overall (#8 in PPG)

2008--#15 RB overall (#3 in PPG)

Even ignoring 2006 (which is tough to ignore, but we can), only 7 RB's have outperformed in both of the last 2 years. AP and MJD, both of which I have ranked higher than him. LT and Westbrook, both of whom are 30 years old and have significantly less value in dynasty terms. The other 3 are Barber, Gore, and Portis. Portis has already been detailed above. Gore is only slotted 4 spots below him. And Barber has a continued timeshare and possibility of decreased workload to contend with.

So, if #3 is too high for him, how low down would you slot him? How many RBs would you take ahead of him in a dynasty? I'd like to see the difference that would label him "the most overrated player in FF right now".

 

[Biabreakable]

I would say Portis is about 4 tiers too low.

 

[gianmarco]

I would say Portis is about 4 tiers too low.

I won't go 4 tiers too low but I have moved him up to RB18 overall.

 

[dickey moe]

Jax is the one guy who's the enigma in your rankings. I personally think he's too high - I'm not going to draft Jax before CJ3 or Turner (even in PPR for Turner)

I think it might be time to admit that Jax is not this beast we make him out to be. Here are his last 4 seasons:

2008: 254 1043 7 40 379 1

2007: 237 1002 5 38 271 1

2006: 346 1528 13 90 806 3

2005: 254 1046 8 43 320 2

Three out of four years he's had about 250 carries, for a little over 1,000 yards, and about 7 TD's. Throw in about 40 catches and another TD or two. Nice numbers for sure, but not elite. The potential of another 2006 year is certainly tempting, but like I said, we're talking three out of four years of "nice but unspectacular" production. That might be all he's really going to be.

Totally agree. Most overrated player in FF right now.

Most overrated?Even with his recent struggles with injuries and missed time, his finishes in the last 3 years are:

2006--#2 RB overall (#2 in PPG)

2007--#15 RB overall (#8 in PPG)

2008--#15 RB overall (#3 in PPG)

Even ignoring 2006 (which is tough to ignore, but we can), only 7 RB's have outperformed in both of the last 2 years. AP and MJD, both of which I have ranked higher than him. LT and Westbrook, both of whom are 30 years old and have significantly less value in dynasty terms. The other 3 are Barber, Gore, and Portis. Portis has already been detailed above. Gore is only slotted 4 spots below him. And Barber has a continued timeshare and possibility of decreased workload to contend with.

So, if #3 is too high for him, how low down would you slot him? How many RBs would you take ahead of him in a dynasty? I'd like to see the difference that would label him "the most overrated player in FF right now".

I'd take him toward the end of the first if he fell that far but not with one of the first three picks. Sure he's got great talent, but combine his injury history and the fact that he plays on a crappy team, and I say no thanks.

 

[gianmarco]

Jax is the one guy who's the enigma in your rankings. I personally think he's too high - I'm not going to draft Jax before CJ3 or Turner (even in PPR for Turner)

I think it might be time to admit that Jax is not this beast we make him out to be. Here are his last 4 seasons:

2008: 254 1043 7 40 379 1

2007: 237 1002 5 38 271 1

2006: 346 1528 13 90 806 3

2005: 254 1046 8 43 320 2

Three out of four years he's had about 250 carries, for a little over 1,000 yards, and about 7 TD's. Throw in about 40 catches and another TD or two. Nice numbers for sure, but not elite. The potential of another 2006 year is certainly tempting, but like I said, we're talking three out of four years of "nice but unspectacular" production. That might be all he's really going to be.

Totally agree. Most overrated player in FF right now.

Most overrated?Even with his recent struggles with injuries and missed time, his finishes in the last 3 years are:

2006--#2 RB overall (#2 in PPG)

2007--#15 RB overall (#8 in PPG)

2008--#15 RB overall (#3 in PPG)

Even ignoring 2006 (which is tough to ignore, but we can), only 7 RB's have outperformed in both of the last 2 years. AP and MJD, both of which I have ranked higher than him. LT and Westbrook, both of whom are 30 years old and have significantly less value in dynasty terms. The other 3 are Barber, Gore, and Portis. Portis has already been detailed above. Gore is only slotted 4 spots below him. And Barber has a continued timeshare and possibility of decreased workload to contend with.

So, if #3 is too high for him, how low down would you slot him? How many RBs would you take ahead of him in a dynasty? I'd like to see the difference that would label him "the most overrated player in FF right now".

I'd take him toward the end of the first if he fell that far but not with one of the first three picks. Sure he's got great talent, but combine his injury history and the fact that he plays on a crappy team, and I say no thanks.

I think that's completely reasonable and have seen him fall that far and don't have that much of an issue with that. That being said, I don't think that qualifies him as "the most overrated player in FF right now". Pretty substantial overexaggeration, IMO.

 

[LBH]

Nice list Gian. Especially agree with your Pierre Thomas and Kevin Smith rankings. Mostly because i own them in a lot of leagues

 

[KoolKat]

I agree Portis is a bit low. His production far outweighs his lack of trade value in my opinion. I drafted him two years ago in an initial dynasty draft at 4.11 and have been laughing to the bank ever since. However, every time I try to move him, it is true that nobody wants him. He fits the mold for a 'ride to the end' type of player which is interesting because few RBs fall into that category for me.

The situation is different for Portis though because he was so young when he entered the league. So, although he is only 27 people look at him as if he were 30. And nobody wants to be the one who trades for a guy who completely falls off. I would not object to it being called the "Alexander Effect" although it happens to RBs all the time. For me though I see Portis as a Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon type who will eventually (maybe sooner than later)no longer be considered a #2 or even #3 RB but can at least hold some value for the next 4-6 years.

I disagree with Tier 5 quite a bit. Slaton I can't really argue with although I am lower on him than most. I have never liked Kevin Smith, even before he was drafted. This has not changed much with his rookie season. I could be wrong but I see him as a lesser Forte in the sense that he has a 'good' situation and mediocre talent in my opinion. Jacobs needs to be looked at in the terms of Portis in my opinion. The guy is huge and invites contact. DBs are going to take out his legs, and all RBs upper bodies take a pounding. He may put up very solid numbers for the next few years, but I see drastic drop-off after that. I just cannot see a RB that big lasting into his 30s. I would take Portis over all these guys and would definitely like J Stew ahead of all these guys. In PPR I would definitely have Bush ahead of all these guys as well.

Great list and analysis, I found it very useful!

 

[gianmarco]

I agree Portis is a bit low. His production far outweighs his lack of trade value in my opinion. I drafted him two years ago in an initial dynasty draft at 4.11 and have been laughing to the bank ever since. However, every time I try to move him, it is true that nobody wants him. He fits the mold for a 'ride to the end' type of player which is interesting because few RBs fall into that category for me. The situation is different for Portis though because he was so young when he entered the league. So, although he is only 27 people look at him as if he were 30. And nobody wants to be the one who trades for a guy who completely falls off. I would not object to it being called the "Alexander Effect" although it happens to RBs all the time. For me though I see Portis as a Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon type who will eventually (maybe sooner than later)no longer be considered a #2 or even #3 RB but can at least hold some value for the next 4-6 years.I disagree with Tier 5 quite a bit. Slaton I can't really argue with although I am lower on him than most. I have never liked Kevin Smith, even before he was drafted. This has not changed much with his rookie season. I could be wrong but I see him as a lesser Forte in the sense that he has a 'good' situation and mediocre talent in my opinion. Jacobs needs to be looked at in the terms of Portis in my opinion. The guy is huge and invites contact. DBs are going to take out his legs, and all RBs upper bodies take a pounding. He may put up very solid numbers for the next few years, but I see drastic drop-off after that. I just cannot see a RB that big lasting into his 30s. I would take Portis over all these guys and would definitely like J Stew ahead of all these guys. In PPR I would definitely have Bush ahead of all these guys as well.Great list and analysis, I found it very useful!

Thanks for this post. Your take on Portis is spot on, I think, and I probably am guilty of having him too low. I'm actually surprised to see that he's the one guy that seems to stick out among many of you as being in the wrong spot. As a result, I've tried to make a few offers to obtain him without success at this point. I guess the thing for me is that I don't own him on any teams and haven't in the last couple of years and have this notion that I already missed the boat and by trading for him now I may compound that by losing value and him possibly falling off. Truth is, he's got a great shot to remain a top 10 RB for at least the next 2 years. Yet, when I look at the list, it just makes me uncomfortable to put him higher. I'm pretty sure I've got him wrong but can't seem to fix it. Silly.As for your tier 5 assessment, I've heard the same thing about Kevin Smith but I'm of the belief that he's a much better talent than he's been given credit for. Will be interesting to see how the next couple years play out. Is he just another average RB like McGahee or Lynch that has done well due to situation or is he that good? As for Jacobs, I agree with a lot of what you said. I do not think he'll last into his 30's so he does have a limited shelf life, but I really like what he brings. It's very true that when you compare him to Portis, they will likely put up similar #'s over a similar timeframe and he probably won't outlast Portis. But, I also see him potentially getting an even bigger piece of the pie and putting up a couple very strong years. You actually won't get much of an argument from me about putting Stewart higher. As I stated above, he's probably one I have too low but I also really like all the guys listed ahead of him. The problem with Stewart is that you may really have to wait 2 yrs to get full return on him. As for Bush, he's just too much of a risk at this point and hasn't proven enough to warrant going higher. I also think Pierre is going to surprise a lot of people this year.

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree Portis is a bit low. His production far outweighs his lack of trade value in my opinion. I drafted him two years ago in an initial dynasty draft at 4.11 and have been laughing to the bank ever since. However, every time I try to move him, it is true that nobody wants him. He fits the mold for a 'ride to the end' type of player which is interesting because few RBs fall into that category for me. The situation is different for Portis though because he was so young when he entered the league. So, although he is only 27 people look at him as if he were 30. And nobody wants to be the one who trades for a guy who completely falls off. I would not object to it being called the "Alexander Effect" although it happens to RBs all the time. For me though I see Portis as a Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon type who will eventually (maybe sooner than later)no longer be considered a #2 or even #3 RB but can at least hold some value for the next 4-6 years.I disagree with Tier 5 quite a bit. Slaton I can't really argue with although I am lower on him than most. I have never liked Kevin Smith, even before he was drafted. This has not changed much with his rookie season. I could be wrong but I see him as a lesser Forte in the sense that he has a 'good' situation and mediocre talent in my opinion. Jacobs needs to be looked at in the terms of Portis in my opinion. The guy is huge and invites contact. DBs are going to take out his legs, and all RBs upper bodies take a pounding. He may put up very solid numbers for the next few years, but I see drastic drop-off after that. I just cannot see a RB that big lasting into his 30s. I would take Portis over all these guys and would definitely like J Stew ahead of all these guys. In PPR I would definitely have Bush ahead of all these guys as well.Great list and analysis, I found it very useful!

Thanks for this post. Your take on Portis is spot on, I think, and I probably am guilty of having him too low. I'm actually surprised to see that he's the one guy that seems to stick out among many of you as being in the wrong spot. As a result, I've tried to make a few offers to obtain him without success at this point. I guess the thing for me is that I don't own him on any teams and haven't in the last couple of years and have this notion that I already missed the boat and by trading for him now I may compound that by losing value and him possibly falling off. Truth is, he's got a great shot to remain a top 10 RB for at least the next 2 years. Yet, when I look at the list, it just makes me uncomfortable to put him higher. I'm pretty sure I've got him wrong but can't seem to fix it. Silly.

I agree.I have owned Portis since he was a rookie. Have not considered trading him. Guys in my league where I have Portis, guys stopped making offers for him many years ago. They know I won't move him for anything they would be willing to pay.In leagues that I do not own him I cannot get him. His owners have been pretty similar to me in how they value him. So there is not enough value for me to continue pursuing him in trade.As you said he will probably be a top 10 RB this year, next year the year after that (3 years from now) he will be 29 and probably a safe bet to finish top 10. It's kind of boring all these top 10 finishes I know. But then he will be 30 and have pretty much the same shot to be top 10 .. yes again lol but maybe there will be a small decline at 29 or 30 and Portis will only be top 15 or something.If you think about this objectivly... who else could you say this about with a lot of confidence?Steven Jackson? I see more issues here than with Portis but ok fine who else?One of the rookies? How can you really have the same confidence in a player with only one season under their belts? I realize some folks are real excited about Slaton, Forte and Johnson. And they are very promising players. But with only one year to judge them on hard for me to be able to project 3 years of success for them reliably or with confidence. I need to see another season from them before I would have the same comfort of certainty to justify ranking these guys over Portis. Now depending on your team.. I could see making a youth move and trading Portis for Johnson, Forte or Slaton. But I wouldn't do it. And I think most of these rookie owners are too excited about their new guy to do it also. I know people will say how can I just ignore any player no matter how good because they only have one season in the league. Well I don't. However I have not been lucky enough to see enough games from these guys to have that level of confidence with them. With AD it was obvious right away. Just like it was with LT and Portis. I cannot say that about Forte CJ and Slaton. But I did like what I saw from Forte when I got the chance to.In any case that (and a lot of other things) tells me that Portis should be ranked in same tier as CJ, Forte and Slaton.What is this Shaun Alexander effect and what does that have to do with Portis? Alexander had a career year at 28 then he got injured. An injury he never fully recovered from. So people thinking that Alexander has anything to do with Portis must believe that Portis will get injured in 2010 and never be the same player again.Well anything can happen. But every other RB in the league could get injured at any time and not return to the same level of ability after it. Based on Portis track record he has shown more toughness and resiliancy than a lot of RB for a long time. That has value to me. It is so hard to judge toughness. But it is a really important, perhaps the most important (skill,ability, factor?) thing for a RB to have if you have long term aspirations and investment into that players prolonged success at the RB position.I think people who don't like Portis.. that usualy the reason is because they are looking for more upside. Portis has not returned to the performance level he had in Denver. I think he gets punished in peoples perceptions because of that but I will take steady and reliable over upside more times than not.So my suggestion is still that Portis is in the same tier and CJ, Slaton and Forte. If you are focused on upside then Portis would be the bottom of that tier. If you favor stability then Portis would be at the top of that tier but I think these players are in the same tier of value.

 

[kneeshooter]

I'd take him toward the end of the first if he fell that far but not with one of the first three picks. Sure he's got great talent, but combine his injury history and the fact that he plays on a crappy team, and I say no thanks.

I think this is a big mistake when you're talking about dynasty. We've seen too many teams turn on a dime from below avereage to successful in the past few years. Look at Atlanta last year - crap the year before but turned it around and produced three solid fantasy options in Ryan, Turner and White in 2008. Downgrading those three because you thought Atlanta would suck would be ignoring the fact that talent is talent, and in a dynasty league players with talent will rise to the top - maybe not in the current year but soon enough. Enough has changed with this Rams team to have optimism for 2009 (improved OLine, new coaching regime), and I think looking at the 2008 Rams team when ranking SJax for 2009 is misguided.

 

[SproutDaddy]

I think this is a big mistake when you're talking about dynasty. We've seen too many teams turn on a dime from below avereage to successful in the past few years. Look at Atlanta last year - crap the year before but turned it around and produced three solid fantasy options in Ryan, Turner and White in 2008. Downgrading those three because you thought Atlanta would suck would be ignoring the fact that talent is talent, and in a dynasty league players with talent will rise to the top - maybe not in the current year but soon enough. Enough has changed with this Rams team to have optimism for 2009 (improved OLine, new coaching regime), and I think looking at the 2008 Rams team when ranking SJax for 2009 is misguided.

Not really. St. Louis doesn't have a defense or QB. They will rely on SJax to be the main point in the offense. He doesn't look as though he can handle it. At least you know what you're getting with Bush, IMO.

 

[gianmarco]

I agree Portis is a bit low. His production far outweighs his lack of trade value in my opinion. I drafted him two years ago in an initial dynasty draft at 4.11 and have been laughing to the bank ever since. However, every time I try to move him, it is true that nobody wants him. He fits the mold for a 'ride to the end' type of player which is interesting because few RBs fall into that category for me. The situation is different for Portis though because he was so young when he entered the league. So, although he is only 27 people look at him as if he were 30. And nobody wants to be the one who trades for a guy who completely falls off. I would not object to it being called the "Alexander Effect" although it happens to RBs all the time. For me though I see Portis as a Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon type who will eventually (maybe sooner than later)no longer be considered a #2 or even #3 RB but can at least hold some value for the next 4-6 years.I disagree with Tier 5 quite a bit. Slaton I can't really argue with although I am lower on him than most. I have never liked Kevin Smith, even before he was drafted. This has not changed much with his rookie season. I could be wrong but I see him as a lesser Forte in the sense that he has a 'good' situation and mediocre talent in my opinion. Jacobs needs to be looked at in the terms of Portis in my opinion. The guy is huge and invites contact. DBs are going to take out his legs, and all RBs upper bodies take a pounding. He may put up very solid numbers for the next few years, but I see drastic drop-off after that. I just cannot see a RB that big lasting into his 30s. I would take Portis over all these guys and would definitely like J Stew ahead of all these guys. In PPR I would definitely have Bush ahead of all these guys as well.Great list and analysis, I found it very useful!

Thanks for this post. Your take on Portis is spot on, I think, and I probably am guilty of having him too low. I'm actually surprised to see that he's the one guy that seems to stick out among many of you as being in the wrong spot. As a result, I've tried to make a few offers to obtain him without success at this point. I guess the thing for me is that I don't own him on any teams and haven't in the last couple of years and have this notion that I already missed the boat and by trading for him now I may compound that by losing value and him possibly falling off. Truth is, he's got a great shot to remain a top 10 RB for at least the next 2 years. Yet, when I look at the list, it just makes me uncomfortable to put him higher. I'm pretty sure I've got him wrong but can't seem to fix it. Silly.

I agree.I have owned Portis since he was a rookie. Have not considered trading him. Guys in my league where I have Portis, guys stopped making offers for him many years ago. They know I won't move him for anything they would be willing to pay.In leagues that I do not own him I cannot get him. His owners have been pretty similar to me in how they value him. So there is not enough value for me to continue pursuing him in trade.As you said he will probably be a top 10 RB this year, next year the year after that (3 years from now) he will be 29 and probably a safe bet to finish top 10. It's kind of boring all these top 10 finishes I know. But then he will be 30 and have pretty much the same shot to be top 10 .. yes again lol but maybe there will be a small decline at 29 or 30 and Portis will only be top 15 or something.If you think about this objectivly... who else could you say this about with a lot of confidence?Steven Jackson? I see more issues here than with Portis but ok fine who else?One of the rookies? How can you really have the same confidence in a player with only one season under their belts? I realize some folks are real excited about Slaton, Forte and Johnson. And they are very promising players. But with only one year to judge them on hard for me to be able to project 3 years of success for them reliably or with confidence. I need to see another season from them before I would have the same comfort of certainty to justify ranking these guys over Portis. Now depending on your team.. I could see making a youth move and trading Portis for Johnson, Forte or Slaton. But I wouldn't do it. And I think most of these rookie owners are too excited about their new guy to do it also. I know people will say how can I just ignore any player no matter how good because they only have one season in the league. Well I don't. However I have not been lucky enough to see enough games from these guys to have that level of confidence with them. With AD it was obvious right away. Just like it was with LT and Portis. I cannot say that about Forte CJ and Slaton. But I did like what I saw from Forte when I got the chance to.In any case that (and a lot of other things) tells me that Portis should be ranked in same tier as CJ, Forte and Slaton.What is this Shaun Alexander effect and what does that have to do with Portis? Alexander had a career year at 28 then he got injured. An injury he never fully recovered from. So people thinking that Alexander has anything to do with Portis must believe that Portis will get injured in 2010 and never be the same player again.Well anything can happen. But every other RB in the league could get injured at any time and not return to the same level of ability after it. Based on Portis track record he has shown more toughness and resiliancy than a lot of RB for a long time. That has value to me. It is so hard to judge toughness. But it is a really important, perhaps the most important (skill,ability, factor?) thing for a RB to have if you have long term aspirations and investment into that players prolonged success at the RB position.I think people who don't like Portis.. that usualy the reason is because they are looking for more upside. Portis has not returned to the performance level he had in Denver. I think he gets punished in peoples perceptions because of that but I will take steady and reliable over upside more times than not.So my suggestion is still that Portis is in the same tier and CJ, Slaton and Forte. If you are focused on upside then Portis would be the bottom of that tier. If you favor stability then Portis would be at the top of that tier but I think these players are in the same tier of value.

There's really no good argument against this thinking. You make fantastic points and I've just come to the conclusion that my ranking of Portis is just wrong. I'll be giving this a bit more thought to see just how high I want to move him.

 

[switz]

All that being said, I wouldn't presume to know what he's being traded for or where he's being valued if I were you because, while you may not agree, your statement isn't true. Unless you think one of the top FBG staff members is crazy too.

So just because one FBG staffer has an opinion, we must all bow in obeisance? If we disagree it's tantamount to calling someone crazy? Our own experience isn't of any value if it falls outside what FBG staffers think?That argument is W-E-A-K

 

[Multiple Scores]

All that being said, I wouldn't presume to know what he's being traded for or where he's being valued if I were you because, while you may not agree, your statement isn't true. Unless you think one of the top FBG staff members is crazy too.

So just because one FBG staffer has an opinion, we must all bow in obeisance? If we disagree it's tantamount to calling someone crazy? Our own experience isn't of any value if it falls outside what FBG staffers think?That argument is W-E-A-K

Matt Waldman has Justin Fargas as the #39 redraft RB and Willie Parker as the #48 redraft RB.

Hope this helps to prove a point.

 

[gianmarco]

All that being said, I wouldn't presume to know what he's being traded for or where he's being valued if I were you because, while you may not agree, your statement isn't true. Unless you think one of the top FBG staff members is crazy too.

So just because one FBG staffer has an opinion, we must all bow in obeisance? If we disagree it's tantamount to calling someone crazy? Our own experience isn't of any value if it falls outside what FBG staffers think?That argument is W-E-A-K

??? Way to pull something completely out of context.The quote that I responded to which you conveniently left out stated that Portis wasn't being traded for that value. My response was that just because he didn't see what he was being traded for doesn't mean it wasn't happening as I've seen Portis traded for that and even less. The 2nd reason behind the fact that I wasn't completely crazy with the ranking even though it's not the norm is that there is at least 1 staff who agrees. No one has to bow in "obeisance". His ranking is definitely in the minority as is mine. You also need to work on the reading comprehension skills. I didn't call Darker Knight "crazy" as you suggested because he disagreed. I said that his statement that it doesn't happen was untrue (i.e. I'm not the only one who thinks this) unless he thinks the staffer is crazy. Pretty distinct difference.

Your reading comprehension is W-E-A-K.

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree Portis is a bit low. His production far outweighs his lack of trade value in my opinion. I drafted him two years ago in an initial dynasty draft at 4.11 and have been laughing to the bank ever since. However, every time I try to move him, it is true that nobody wants him. He fits the mold for a 'ride to the end' type of player which is interesting because few RBs fall into that category for me. The situation is different for Portis though because he was so young when he entered the league. So, although he is only 27 people look at him as if he were 30. And nobody wants to be the one who trades for a guy who completely falls off. I would not object to it being called the "Alexander Effect" although it happens to RBs all the time. For me though I see Portis as a Fred Taylor, Corey Dillon type who will eventually (maybe sooner than later)no longer be considered a #2 or even #3 RB but can at least hold some value for the next 4-6 years.I disagree with Tier 5 quite a bit. Slaton I can't really argue with although I am lower on him than most. I have never liked Kevin Smith, even before he was drafted. This has not changed much with his rookie season. I could be wrong but I see him as a lesser Forte in the sense that he has a 'good' situation and mediocre talent in my opinion. Jacobs needs to be looked at in the terms of Portis in my opinion. The guy is huge and invites contact. DBs are going to take out his legs, and all RBs upper bodies take a pounding. He may put up very solid numbers for the next few years, but I see drastic drop-off after that. I just cannot see a RB that big lasting into his 30s. I would take Portis over all these guys and would definitely like J Stew ahead of all these guys. In PPR I would definitely have Bush ahead of all these guys as well.Great list and analysis, I found it very useful!

Thanks for this post. Your take on Portis is spot on, I think, and I probably am guilty of having him too low. I'm actually surprised to see that he's the one guy that seems to stick out among many of you as being in the wrong spot. As a result, I've tried to make a few offers to obtain him without success at this point. I guess the thing for me is that I don't own him on any teams and haven't in the last couple of years and have this notion that I already missed the boat and by trading for him now I may compound that by losing value and him possibly falling off. Truth is, he's got a great shot to remain a top 10 RB for at least the next 2 years. Yet, when I look at the list, it just makes me uncomfortable to put him higher. I'm pretty sure I've got him wrong but can't seem to fix it. Silly.

I agree.I have owned Portis since he was a rookie. Have not considered trading him. Guys in my league where I have Portis, guys stopped making offers for him many years ago. They know I won't move him for anything they would be willing to pay.In leagues that I do not own him I cannot get him. His owners have been pretty similar to me in how they value him. So there is not enough value for me to continue pursuing him in trade.As you said he will probably be a top 10 RB this year, next year the year after that (3 years from now) he will be 29 and probably a safe bet to finish top 10. It's kind of boring all these top 10 finishes I know. But then he will be 30 and have pretty much the same shot to be top 10 .. yes again lol but maybe there will be a small decline at 29 or 30 and Portis will only be top 15 or something.If you think about this objectivly... who else could you say this about with a lot of confidence?Steven Jackson? I see more issues here than with Portis but ok fine who else?One of the rookies? How can you really have the same confidence in a player with only one season under their belts? I realize some folks are real excited about Slaton, Forte and Johnson. And they are very promising players. But with only one year to judge them on hard for me to be able to project 3 years of success for them reliably or with confidence. I need to see another season from them before I would have the same comfort of certainty to justify ranking these guys over Portis. Now depending on your team.. I could see making a youth move and trading Portis for Johnson, Forte or Slaton. But I wouldn't do it. And I think most of these rookie owners are too excited about their new guy to do it also. I know people will say how can I just ignore any player no matter how good because they only have one season in the league. Well I don't. However I have not been lucky enough to see enough games from these guys to have that level of confidence with them. With AD it was obvious right away. Just like it was with LT and Portis. I cannot say that about Forte CJ and Slaton. But I did like what I saw from Forte when I got the chance to.In any case that (and a lot of other things) tells me that Portis should be ranked in same tier as CJ, Forte and Slaton.What is this Shaun Alexander effect and what does that have to do with Portis? Alexander had a career year at 28 then he got injured. An injury he never fully recovered from. So people thinking that Alexander has anything to do with Portis must believe that Portis will get injured in 2010 and never be the same player again.Well anything can happen. But every other RB in the league could get injured at any time and not return to the same level of ability after it. Based on Portis track record he has shown more toughness and resiliancy than a lot of RB for a long time. That has value to me. It is so hard to judge toughness. But it is a really important, perhaps the most important (skill,ability, factor?) thing for a RB to have if you have long term aspirations and investment into that players prolonged success at the RB position.I think people who don't like Portis.. that usualy the reason is because they are looking for more upside. Portis has not returned to the performance level he had in Denver. I think he gets punished in peoples perceptions because of that but I will take steady and reliable over upside more times than not.So my suggestion is still that Portis is in the same tier and CJ, Slaton and Forte. If you are focused on upside then Portis would be the bottom of that tier. If you favor stability then Portis would be at the top of that tier but I think these players are in the same tier of value.

There's really no good argument against this thinking. You make fantastic points and I've just come to the conclusion that my ranking of Portis is just wrong. I'll be giving this a bit more thought to see just how high I want to move him.

I do believe you are correct that Portis's trade value in many dynasty leagues is lower than where I value him. Perhaps still some hangover effect from him missing time in 2006 is part of the reason for this as well.Just want to say that I agree with most of how you have players tiered here and see many of these tiers similarly. The main differences are with established veterans LT, Portis and Westbrook.These 3 players are going to have very contested views from owners in dynasty leagues because of their age. Some people with longer term views on their strategy have already written these guys off because of it. And if your team is building these players would not be the right fit for your teams long term development. Teams like this should be trading these RB for strong WR with a perhaps more steady and longer term value for those teams.There is a difference between percieved value (trade value) and real value.I like to keep my core players and rarely do I trade them and definitly not if I am not getting a core player in return. I don't mind keeping these guys until they fall off when they are still out performing the guys I have waiting in the wings.

 

[Stingdiddy]

You have a 26 year old starting RB(Addai) in the 9th tier.....Why do you hate the Colts?

24 RBs in front of Westbrook in PPR? Getting him in the 3rd round of a start-up dynasty will help you win for the next 3 years running.

I'm assuming you didn't read what I wrote about Westy above. If not for the latest news on the ankle surgery and the possibility he's not even there for the season opener, I'd have him higher. But, the word is that it's a serious injury, serious surgery, and I wouldn't be surprised if he never recovers fully from it and regains his productivity.

So why is LT not higher.....from everything we have heard he is healthy. LT has never missed time like Westy. Based on that if you would put Westy higher if he was healthy should that not mean that LT should be higher?

LT is not higher because of the recent injury history and his age and also his current trade value. I own him in a couple of leagues where I'll be quite competitive, but otherwise, I'd move him if I could get decent value. I don't see him sustaining his past production like others do. He could, but I just don't feel comfortable with him.

I agree, LT is done. I bet a buddy of mine $50.00 that LT won't have 15 more TD's in his career. I feel very good about the bet.

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree, LT is done. I bet a buddy of mine $50.00 that LT won't have 15 more TD's in his career. I feel very good about the bet.

If this doesen't anger the FF gods I don't know what will. glll peas

 

[Darker Knight]

All that being said, I wouldn't presume to know what he's being traded for or where he's being valued if I were you because, while you may not agree, your statement isn't true. Unless you think one of the top FBG staff members is crazy too.

So just because one FBG staffer has an opinion, we must all bow in obeisance? If we disagree it's tantamount to calling someone crazy? Our own experience isn't of any value if it falls outside what FBG staffers think?That argument is W-E-A-K

??? Way to pull something completely out of context.The quote that I responded to which you conveniently left out stated that Portis wasn't being traded for that value. My response was that just because he didn't see what he was being traded for doesn't mean it wasn't happening as I've seen Portis traded for that and even less. The 2nd reason behind the fact that I wasn't completely crazy with the ranking even though it's not the norm is that there is at least 1 staff who agrees. No one has to bow in "obeisance". His ranking is definitely in the minority as is mine. You also need to work on the reading comprehension skills. I didn't call Darker Knight "crazy" as you suggested because he disagreed. I said that his statement that it doesn't happen was untrue (i.e. I'm not the only one who thinks this) unless he thinks the staffer is crazy. Pretty distinct difference.

Your reading comprehension is W-E-A-K.

you need to work on your reading comprehension also.....he was not saying that you were calling me crazy...he was saying that you were saying that because someone might disagree with a staffer that we were calling them crazy......I myself think you are all crazy

 

[Darker Knight]

I agree, LT is done. I bet a buddy of mine $50.00 that LT won't have 15 more TD's in his career. I feel very good about the bet.

you might be paying this bet off in 2009

 

[gianmarco]

you need to work on your reading comprehension also.....he was not saying that you were calling me crazy...he was saying that you were saying that because someone might disagree with a staffer that we were calling them crazy......I myself think you are all crazy

Yeah, we probably are all crazy. Reading it again, I can see how it could go both ways and most likely intended it as you described. My mistake.

 

[Darker Knight]

bump for the end of preseason.......Has your list changed any?

 

[gianmarco]

Top 5 tiers haven't changed for me.

Tier 6 is probably the biggest issue as all of those guys need to be moved down some for various reasons. I'd move McFadden, Grant, Portis above them at this point. 3 of the biggest movers up are Rice, Felix, and Leon. I would also move both LT and Westy up a good bit as both look to be healthy heading into the season.

Overall, little to no movement at the top, lots of shuffling in the middle to low groups.