My FINAL Projections are now Posted (9-8-10) (1 Viewer)

[Unlucky]

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/proj-index.php

First, please read these caveats:

1. If a player isn't suspended or currently hurt, I project him to play all 16 games. None of us can predict injury, so it's a pointless exercise.

2. Due to #1, you'll see some season totals that look too high. However, I total up all of my projections and compare historically. They are within a reasonable range on the whole.

3. Yes, this a bit of a "I want to drive some traffic to my website". No need to post that here and complain about it. I'm posting these projections for free. I'll answer questions here for free. If you don't want to go to my website, then don't.

4. I've been making projections for quite a few years now. I like to go out on a limb in some cases, which I think can be a good thing.

5. If you disagree strongly with something - post here! I love debating the players that I seem to have most out of line with the consensus.

6. I have Favre and Tarvaris both listed where I think they'll fit if they are the starter.

THIS IS FROM FOUR WEEKS AGO - UPDATED NOTES on page 2.

Here is a brief list of my most underrated and overrated players by position:

UNDERRATED

QB

K. Kolb

E. Manning (a little)

D. McNabb

RB

R. Mathews

P. Thomas

R. Bush

C. Portis

T. Hightower (VERY underrated in PPR leagues)

M. Barber (a little)

A. Foster

TE

Z. Miller (a little - he's creeping up fast)

K. Winslow (a little - injury concerns here)

D. Keller

WR

M. Austin - When you see that he's #1 on my board, don't spit out your coffee

S. Smith from Carolina

J. Maclin - I love him

P. Garcon - just a little

R. Meachem - just a little

All of the OLD WRs: S. Moss, Driver, Mason, Chambers, L. Evans, and maybe Hines Ward. Nobody likes the old guys, but in PPR leagues, these guys are good value picks

J. Gaffney - someone has to catch the ball in DEN

OVERRATED

QB

J. Cutler - getting drafted a couple of rounds early

J. Flacco - will he throw enough TDs, or will BAL run them all in?

C. Palmer - still no real deep threat on this team.

M. Sanchez - I have him really far down my board - this is still a running team.

RB

S. Jackson

M. Turner in PPR leagues

R. Grant (not sure why he's so low on my board, but he is)

L. McCoy - will lack rushing TDs

B. Wells - See Hightower, Tim

R. Mendenhall - very likely won't be the goal line RB and thus few TDs

K. Moreno - Broncos will struggle mightily this year

F. Jones - I don't believe the hype, still.

TE

Can't really argue against anyone being all that overrated

WR

B. Marshall - just a little bit as the MIA situation is clearly not as good FF wise as Denver was the past 3 years

M. Crabtree - seems to go a little too high for my liking - love the talent, but not sure if it's the best situation FF wise

D. Bowe - he's not that good.

ANQUAN BOLDIN - I'm yelling because I think he's the most overrated FF player this year. He's not a TD machine, the Ravens aren't the Cardinals, and Kurt Warner isn't his QB. WRs changing teams not named Randy Moss or Terrell Owens have fared pretty poorly in the past.

S. Rice - I don't trust the hip, or Favre. Too risky at this point.

K. Britt - Could regress this year - just a bad feeling on him.

Of course there are more, but this is a good starter list of underrated/overrated.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Great work! For those that may not know Unlucky, he's beeon one of the long time posters here on FBG andd has great insight on fantasy football.

Some thoughts since you asked

I agree with you on McGahee, he'll vulture some Td's this year. I think Ray Rice's receiving yards may be low (just under 600), I think by seasons end there will be talk of him going 1,000 and 1,000, we'll see.

I don't see Clausen only getting 21 attempts this year in Carolina. Moore isn't that good to keep him off the field all season long.

R. Mathews, 1581 yards and 15 td's.....tell me how you really feel. Care to predict who's going to be rookie of the year?

Surprised to see you had Vincent Jackson with close to 1000 yards receiving this season.

You REALLY like J. Charles over T. Jones. 1,344 and 9 td's compared to 395 and 1 TD. My numbers don't have that kind of lopsidedness in either department, although I do agree I like Charles over Jones.

I'll be very surprised if M. Sanchez has more Int's than TD's, just saying.

4,500 yards for Kolb, holy crap!

If S. Jackson is in line for 1,300 yards and 60 receptions, I'm confident that he's in line for more than 6 total td's.

Thanks a lot for posting, I always enjoy checking it out. I agree with a lot of your projections, so please don't take the ones I pointed out as anything more than constructive criticism because there are a lot more I agree with than those I don't.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not sure CHI will have worse passing totals now that they added Martz.

Also interesting that PHI losing McNabb netted a much bigger increase than WAS adding McNabb.

And the numbers for Chris Johnson are straight out of a video game.

 

[djjosee]

M. Austin - When you see that he's #1 on my board, don't spit out your coffee

Too late. Nice write up!

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

I'm not getting all the love for Ryan Mathews. Not just here but in general. I think his best case scenario upside is about RB10 but he's more likely RB15-RB20ish.

 

[Deuceman]

Career Stats, just using as a reference

Both came into the league in 2003

AJ - 587 7,948 42..........In 102 games

Boldin - 586 7,520 44...........In 95 games

Seems like Boldin has been good (Stats wise) up to this point compared to AJ, I wouldn't call him overrated.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Career Stats, just using as a referenceBoth came into the league in 2003AJ - 587 7,948 42..........In 102 gamesBoldin - 586 7,520 44...........In 95 gamesSeems like Boldin has been good (Stats wise) up to this point compared to AJ, I wouldn't call him overrated.

The difference is in the last 3 years. Andre has played 41 games; Boldin 40. They have the same number of TDs. Andre has 30 more catches and 1000 more yards. That is a major difference. Andre's best years have been his most recent while Boldin's were towards the start. Basically, Andre is trending steeply up and Boldin is trending down, although slightly. Also, major props to twilight for doing these.

 

[Hoosier16]

ANQUAN BOLDIN - I'm yelling because I think he's the most overrated FF player this year. He's not a TD machine, the Ravens aren't the Cardinals, and Kurt Warner isn't his QB. WRs changing teams not named Randy Moss or Terrell Owens have fared pretty poorly in the past.

I see this reasoning a lot but don't quite understand it. Boldin has played for a few coaches, in a few different offenses, with a few different QBs. He produced. From 2005-2009, in games (17) when Warner didn't QB, Boldin was 96-1303-8 which projects to 16 game totals of 90-1226-8. Prior to Warner arriving in Arizona, in 2003-2004, Boldin was 157-2000-4, a 16 game projection of 96-1230-6. I think most would be happy with those 16 game numbers, even without a monster number of TDs.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

ANQUAN BOLDIN - I'm yelling because I think he's the most overrated FF player this year. He's not a TD machine, the Ravens aren't the Cardinals, and Kurt Warner isn't his QB. WRs changing teams not named Randy Moss or Terrell Owens have fared pretty poorly in the past.

I see this reasoning a lot but don't quite understand it. Boldin has played for a few coaches, in a few different offenses, with a few different QBs. He produced. From 2005-2009, in games (17) when Warner didn't QB, Boldin was 96-1303-8 which projects to 16 game totals of 90-1226-8. Prior to Warner arriving in Arizona, in 2003-2004, Boldin was 157-2000-4, a 16 game projection of 96-1230-6. I think most would be happy with those 16 game numbers, even without a monster number of TDs.

He has also played for a pass first offense, which is a lot different than the Cam Cameron offense.

 

[Hoosier16]

ANQUAN BOLDIN - I'm yelling because I think he's the most overrated FF player this year. He's not a TD machine, the Ravens aren't the Cardinals, and Kurt Warner isn't his QB. WRs changing teams not named Randy Moss or Terrell Owens have fared pretty poorly in the past.

I see this reasoning a lot but don't quite understand it. Boldin has played for a few coaches, in a few different offenses, with a few different QBs. He produced. From 2005-2009, in games (17) when Warner didn't QB, Boldin was 96-1303-8 which projects to 16 game totals of 90-1226-8. Prior to Warner arriving in Arizona, in 2003-2004, Boldin was 157-2000-4, a 16 game projection of 96-1230-6. I think most would be happy with those 16 game numbers, even without a monster number of TDs.

He has also played for a pass first offense, which is a lot different than the Cam Cameron offense.

That works both ways. Defenses have to be concerned about the run in Baltimore. For targets, it likely affects WR3, WR4, and WR5 a lot more than WR1 and WR2. Boldin also goes from being the 2nd option in Arizona to being the 1st option in Baltimore.

 

[nittanylion]

Props, old man. Always a solid effort. Will stop by to opine later, but I add to IWBACB!'s endorsement. Unlucky is an established vet, and his projections, whether we agree with them or not, are extremely well thought out...

...and any prospective 1st-Time $ League Players looking to enter the world of 'play for pay', you couldn't ask to find a better group of Leagues than his Phenoms Leagues, linked in his sig, and posted in the 'Looking For Leagues' Forum. Unlucky is trusted and respected around here by EVERYONE who's been around from the beginning...

 

[Jed]

Greene 1600+ yards rushing.

 

[Go deep]

Props, old man. Always a solid effort. Will stop by to opine later, but I add to IWBACB!'s endorsement. Unlucky is an established vet, and his projections, whether we agree with them or not, are extremely well thought out......and any prospective 1st-Time $ League Players looking to enter the world of 'play for pay', you couldn't ask to find a better group of Leagues than his Phenoms Leagues, linked in his sig, and posted in the 'Looking For Leagues' Forum. Unlucky is trusted and respected around here by EVERYONE who's been around from the beginning...

Despite being in 5 dynasty leagues and having 4 local redrafts, i still love doing Phenoms. I actually got carried away a bit this year, i am in 6 Phenoms leagues already. I do have a question for Unlucky though, where are all the non-PPR leagues?

 

[Hooper31]

I can only give you some feedback on Seattle. I think you're projections look great here with one exception. TE John Carlson has been a real focus of the offense during training camp. I read several daily blogs written by beat reporters. The two constant themes so far during training camp are how Carlson is being utilized all over the field and that rookie WR Golden Tate is going to play a major part in the offense.

Here are his previous stats:

Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV2008 24 SEA TE 89 16 9 55 627 11.4 5 33 3.4 39.2 627 5 0 72009 25 SEA TE 89 16 16 51 574 11.3 7 42 3.2 35.9 574 7 0 6
You have him down for these stats in the coming year:

Rec Yds Avg TDs50 565 11.3 5
IMO I don't see Carlson's numbers going anywhere but up if he stays healthy. As far as Tate is concerned, I have a hard time having faith in rookie receivers. I think you're projections there look reasonable.

 

[Sweet Love]

Unlucky,

Thanks for posting. I do have a question (and I see this all the time) about Denver's WR situation and the thought that Gaffney will be the guy. He has had an interesting career

His best games tend to be at the end of the year

2002:

Game 16 - 6-73

2003:

Game 2: 5-61

2004:

Game 8: 6-88

Game 14: 4-104

2005:

Game 5: 10-87

2006:

Game 9: 3-65

2007:

Game 11: 6-87, 1TD

Game 13: 7-122, 1TD

Game 15: 5-82, 1TD

2008:

Game 10: 7-86, 1TD

Game 15: 5-90

2009:

Game 15: 7-69, 2TDs

Game 16: 14-213

Now, he did have some 5-50 yard-type games sprinkled in there, but his best couple games each year, seem to be at the end. i am not sure why this is (most likely due to injuries in front of him), but I think the fact that he plays well at the end of the season, inflates our value of him (a player on the rise going into the next season), versus a guy who puts up numbers in game 1 and is never heard from again (even if they have roughly the same numbers throughout the year compared to one another), ala Frisman Jackson.

I think they are going to try to get Thomas in there immediately (it would be silly to have two first rounders riding the pine) and while Royal was not looked at last year, his only other season (2008), was better than anything Gaffney had in his 8 seasons in the league.

 

[billymays]

still cant figure out why so many people are down on mendenhall

running team + no competition +young talented RB

1500 yds 10 tds are my base for the guy

 

[smotherhook]

outstanding work

 

[Hooper31]

still cant figure out why so many people are down on mendenhallrunning team + no competition +young talented RB1500 yds 10 tds are my base for the guy

Base? Last year only one player had this many rushing yards. In 2007 none did.

 

[Spike]

I'm surprised to see that only one WR is projected to catch more than 100 receptions (Andre Johnson, with 104).

 

[billymays]

still cant figure out why so many people are down on mendenhallrunning team + no competition +young talented RB1500 yds 10 tds are my base for the guy

Base? Last year only one player had this many rushing yards. In 2007 none did.

this is my base for total yds.....basically phenoms has him projected at 1500 total yds and 6 tds....below my base.if i had to make a projection it would be more like 315-1350 35-300 12tds

 

[Hooper31]

still cant figure out why so many people are down on mendenhallrunning team + no competition +young talented RB1500 yds 10 tds are my base for the guy

Base? Last year only one player had this many rushing yards. In 2007 none did.

this is my base for total yds.....basically phenoms has him projected at 1500 total yds and 6 tds....below my base.if i had to make a projection it would be more like 315-1350 35-300 12tds

Thanks. That makes much more sense.

 

[Warrior]

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/proj-index.php

First, please read these caveats:

1. If a player isn't suspended or currently hurt, I project him to play all 16 games. None of us can predict injury, so it's a pointless exercise.

Stopped reading here. If you think Calvin Johnson has the same chance of injury as Andre Johnson, I don't have much use for your predictions.

 

[Stealthycat]

I think Romo is top 3 this year

I think RB Michael Bush will crack top 15

I think RB Greene is way too high

I think Wayne/Maclin are too high too

But overall a nice read/list - really is

 

[Giants4Life]

I find it laughable how everyone has jumped on this Ryan Matthews bandwagon and I bet 90% of people have never seen him

 

[jasvic]

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/proj-index.php

First, please read these caveats:

1. If a player isn't suspended or currently hurt, I project him to play all 16 games. None of us can predict injury, so it's a pointless exercise.

Stopped reading here. If you think Calvin Johnson has the same chance of injury as Andre Johnson, I don't have much use for your predictions.

No offense, but this is very narrow minded. Back in the day, Isaac Bruce was shunned for being oft injured, then the greatest show on turf rolls into town, he doesn't miss time for 4 years straight and is a consistent top 10 WR.You can't predict injuries, and doing so is futile. Also, these are projections, not predictions. Big difference.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/proj-index.php

First, please read these caveats:

1. If a player isn't suspended or currently hurt, I project him to play all 16 games. None of us can predict injury, so it's a pointless exercise.

Stopped reading here. If you think Calvin Johnson has the same chance of injury as Andre Johnson, I don't have much use for your predictions.

No offense, but this is very narrow minded. Back in the day, Isaac Bruce was shunned for being oft injured, then the greatest show on turf rolls into town, he doesn't miss time for 4 years straight and is a consistent top 10 WR.You can't predict injuries, and doing so is futile. Also, these are projections, not predictions. Big difference.

HUGE difference.

I always enjoy your work, Unlucky.

One first glance quibble: barring injury, there is little chance of D.Mason outscoring Boldin. I am not a Boldin-is-a-stud believer, but he is certainly better than Mason at this point in their careers, imo.

 

[Hooper31]

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/proj-index.php

First, please read these caveats:

1. If a player isn't suspended or currently hurt, I project him to play all 16 games. None of us can predict injury, so it's a pointless exercise.

Stopped reading here. If you think Calvin Johnson has the same chance of injury as Andre Johnson, I don't have much use for your predictions.

No offense, but this is very narrow minded. Back in the day, Isaac Bruce was shunned for being oft injured, then the greatest show on turf rolls into town, he doesn't miss time for 4 years straight and is a consistent top 10 WR.You can't predict injuries, and doing so is futile. Also, these are projections, not predictions. Big difference.

And Muhammy, and Galloway, and Robert Smith, and ...

 

[One]

Sorry Unlucky, no time to look through these.

I need at least a week's notice.

 

[bostonfred]

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/proj-index.php

First, please read these caveats:

1. If a player isn't suspended or currently hurt, I project him to play all 16 games. None of us can predict injury, so it's a pointless exercise.

Stopped reading here. If you think Calvin Johnson has the same chance of injury as Andre Johnson, I don't have much use for your predictions.

Wait, which one has the higher chance of injury?

 

[Couch Potato]

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/proj-index.php

First, please read these caveats:

1. If a player isn't suspended or currently hurt, I project him to play all 16 games. None of us can predict injury, so it's a pointless exercise.

Stopped reading here. If you think Calvin Johnson has the same chance of injury as Andre Johnson, I don't have much use for your predictions.

Wait, which one has the higher chance of injury?

Yes, that was going to be my question... Andre, who has missed 10 of a possible 112 games (8.9%) or Calvin, who has missed 3 of a possible 48 games (6.3%)? And through his first 3 seasons each had missed 3 games. A very odd example choice IMO.

 

[Nagle2998]

I find it laughable how everyone has jumped on this Ryan Matthews bandwagon and I bet 90% of people have never seen him

People always seem to put way more stock in where a rookie goes then the talent they have not saying Matthews is a bum but he wasn't an eliter player. I know Spiller went to rb hell but prior to the draft he was looked at as the better prospect so I guess his numbers would be 2000 yards if he went to SD. I think people who have Matthews as a top level rb this year are going to be dissapointed.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/proj-index.php

First, please read these caveats:

1. If a player isn't suspended or currently hurt, I project him to play all 16 games. None of us can predict injury, so it's a pointless exercise.

Stopped reading here. If you think Calvin Johnson has the same chance of injury as Andre Johnson, I don't have much use for your predictions.

Which Johnson is more likely to get injured? Calvin has played in 45 out of a possible 48 games so he's missed some time. Andre missed seven games in 2007 and three others in 2005. Besides that point, projections should be based on if a player plays in all 16 games. I draft my teams based on how many points I think each player will score when they play. If they don't play I'm not taking a zero. I'm filling in with another player.

 

[Couch Potato]

I find it laughable how everyone has jumped on this Ryan Matthews bandwagon and I bet 90% of people have never seen him

People always seem to put way more stock in where a rookie goes then the talent they have not saying Matthews is a bum but he wasn't an eliter player. I know Spiller went to rb hell but prior to the draft he was looked at as the better prospect so I guess his numbers would be 2000 yards if he went to SD. I think people who have Matthews as a top level rb this year are going to be dissapointed.

It's Mathews with one t by the way guys...Why are people high on Mathews this year? Very simple. Norv Turner has a long and clear history of riding his feature back long and hard, and already stated this preseason that he intends to do so again. A player doesn't have to be great to pile up fantasy points if he's getting 300+ carries and 40 catches. Some of Norv's previous RBs with stud numbers haven't been great backs, they've been very productive backs due to opportunity. And Mathews isn't some scrap heap RB they happened to find somewhere. He was their handpicked choice, the 12th pick in the draft that they had been targeting specifically for this workhorse role. He's the reason they didn't look into free agency in March/April to replace Tomlinson. AJ Smith and Norv Turner are believers in this guy, and he's going to see 350+ touches and a healthy bunch of fantasy points running against one of the weakest schedules around (NFC West and AFC West portions of their schedule account for 10 of their 16 games). Other than being a rookie (which isn't all that big an issue at the RB position), there is no real reason NOT to think this guy will put up big numbers.

 

[Captain Hook]

As always, thanks - very interesting takes every year

A few quibbles - we can all be up or down a tick on any given player - those are not worth mentioning, BUT

1) I am with DY on Bears passing game - not sure how/why you would have Cutler projected for totals that low (would only make sense if RB totals were higher and they are not)....Cutler Does have a huge arm......Martz will let him throw a LOT

2) Absolutely agree with you on Hightower being undervalued....but that said, your numbers (more rushing TD than Wells with a lot fewer yards) would suggest he will be the goal line back......and nothing Whisenhunt has done/said would suggest that. I think both AZ running backs will have value (and your projections of Leinart being good enough to hold the job all year and be effective are in agreement with that).

 

[footballsavvy]

As always, thanks - very interesting takes every yearA few quibbles - we can all be up or down a tick on any given player - those are not worth mentioning, BUT1) I am with DY on Bears passing game - not sure how/why you would have Cutler projected for totals that low (would only make sense if RB totals were higher and they are not)....Cutler Does have a huge arm......Martz will let him throw a LOT2) Absolutely agree with you on Hightower being undervalued....but that said, your numbers (more rushing TD than Wells with a lot fewer yards) would suggest he will be the goal line back......and nothing Whisenhunt has done/said would suggest that. I think both AZ running backs will have value (and your projections of Leinart being good enough to hold the job all year and be effective are in agreement with that).

Yes Cutlers Yards per attempt seem too low in that system with his big play abilities. Despite having an idential completion percentage rate as Alex Smith, you have Cutler with a lower yards-per-attempt. I don't see how this is possible considering the style of offenses they play in. If they really do have 585+ attempts it seems highly probable that he goes over 4000 yards. Also, it seems you hedged on the Chicago receivers and spread the wealth pretty evenly between them all (including Olsen). Maybe this is how you really feel, but I was hoping to see a bold prediction on at least one break-out receiver there.

 

[jude]

It looks like you put a ton of work into your projections. Thanks.

Your comment about Dwayne Bowe is strange. Bowe is a big, fast, physical and proven veteran receiver albeit with some workethic issues. To say he isnt that good is innacurate.

I think your projections on CJ3 ang Greene are wildly optimistic. Vincent Jackson's numbers seem off. i don;t think he is playing this year.

Big Ben ranked higher than Stafford with 12 games of work? I think his first 4 could be seriously rusty. This might be a lost season for Pitt and Ben.

I think Crabtree's numbers could actually get a boost from where you have them. Vernon Davis is great of course, but slowly and surely wew will see Crabtree take over as the #1 target. Simply because he is faster and smarter and has much better hands. Plus he will have fewer blocking duties than Vern once the games start. This is to take nothing away from Davis, but Gates and Gonzalez are the only Tight End's in NFL hostory to consistently lead there respective teams in targets from one season to the next or in multiple different years. They are both hall of famers. I don't put Vern there yet. I have a feeling that we just saw the best year Vernon will ever have in the NFL.

 

[Unlucky]

You REALLY like J. Charles over T. Jones. 1,344 and 9 td's compared to 395 and 1 TD. My numbers don't have that kind of lopsidedness in either department, although I do agree I like Charles over Jones.

I'm starting to change my tune on this a bit. At first pass, I felt Charles was clearly the more talented RB and T. Jones has carried a really heavy load the last few years. Jones benefited from a great offensive line. He turns 32 next week. However, reports seem to be that this will be more of a split than I project. This is likely one spot that I'll alter.

 

[Unlucky]

Why are people high on Mathews this year? Very simple. Norv Turner has a long and clear history of riding his feature back long and hard, and already stated this preseason that he intends to do so again. A player doesn't have to be great to pile up fantasy points if he's getting 300+ carries and 40 catches. Some of Norv's previous RBs with stud numbers haven't been great backs, they've been very productive backs due to opportunity. And Mathews isn't some scrap heap RB they happened to find somewhere. He was their handpicked choice, the 12th pick in the draft that they had been targeting specifically for this workhorse role. He's the reason they didn't look into free agency in March/April to replace Tomlinson. AJ Smith and Norv Turner are believers in this guy, and he's going to see 350+ touches and a healthy bunch of fantasy points running against one of the weakest schedules around (NFC West and AFC West portions of their schedule account for 10 of their 16 games). Other than being a rookie (which isn't all that big an issue at the RB position), there is no real reason NOT to think this guy will put up big numbers.

Bingo! Some RBs under Norv Turner: Emmitt Smith 91-93Terry Allen 95-96 were huge yearsRicky Williams 02-03 were his two biggest yearsFrank Gore 06 was his biggest yearLT's rookie year in 01: 339 carries, 1603 total yards, 10 TDsNow, factor in that SD has one of the easiest, if not the easiest, schedule against the run this year. Sproles is not a real factor rushing the ball. Finally, Ryan Mathews did light it up in college. Last year's numbers: 276 carries, 1808 yards, 19 Tds.

 

[Unlucky]

I'm not sure CHI will have worse passing totals now that they added Martz.Also interesting that PHI losing McNabb netted a much bigger increase than WAS adding McNabb.And the numbers for Chris Johnson are straight out of a video game.

Chicago - I probably have to adjust the numbers. But I'm skeptical of this Martz magic. First, I'm not 100% sure that Cutler will be a great fit for this offense. I know the arm strength is there, the accuracy can be there, but is the quick decision making? Philly - The main difference I see between Kolb and McNabb is completion %. Kolb can attempt fewer passes, but if he's hitting 63 to 64%, his numbers will be higher than McNabb's.Chris Johnson - You might not believe me, but I had to adjust those DOWN. My main reason for the insane numbers is way CJ took off once Vince became the starter and the team started winning. Way higher TD numbers the last 10 games. 12 TDs in 10 games. I feel that TEN will ride CJ this year at least as much as last year, and the TDs will increase, thus the huge numbers. I know it's not good to project at the high end, but I think the real high end is more like 26 TDs. (although his yards probably can't go up much more)

 

[Unlucky]

Greene 1600+ yards rushing.

Too low? Greene took over in the playoffs. He was a beast. The Jets' line is one of the best still, they will still run the ball a ton, LT is pretty old, they'll be winning a lot of games, thus running extra late. 344 carries at 4.75 YPC isn't that unrealistic for Greene. What hurts him FF wise is his total lack of receptions.

 

[Tau837]

Why are people high on Mathews this year? Very simple. Norv Turner has a long and clear history of riding his feature back long and hard, and already stated this preseason that he intends to do so again. A player doesn't have to be great to pile up fantasy points if he's getting 300+ carries and 40 catches. Some of Norv's previous RBs with stud numbers haven't been great backs, they've been very productive backs due to opportunity. And Mathews isn't some scrap heap RB they happened to find somewhere. He was their handpicked choice, the 12th pick in the draft that they had been targeting specifically for this workhorse role. He's the reason they didn't look into free agency in March/April to replace Tomlinson. AJ Smith and Norv Turner are believers in this guy, and he's going to see 350+ touches and a healthy bunch of fantasy points running against one of the weakest schedules around (NFC West and AFC West portions of their schedule account for 10 of their 16 games). Other than being a rookie (which isn't all that big an issue at the RB position), there is no real reason NOT to think this guy will put up big numbers.

Bingo! Some RBs under Norv Turner: Emmitt Smith 91-93Terry Allen 95-96 were huge yearsRicky Williams 02-03 were his two biggest yearsFrank Gore 06 was his biggest yearLT's rookie year in 01: 339 carries, 1603 total yards, 10 TDsNow, factor in that SD has one of the easiest, if not the easiest, schedule against the run this year. Sproles is not a real factor rushing the ball. Finally, Ryan Mathews did light it up in college. Last year's numbers: 276 carries, 1808 yards, 19 Tds.

Yes, and you didn't even mention:1. Stephen Davis, who had his initial breakout under Turner, finishing as RB4 and RB12 in Turner's last two seasons in Washington. Those were his highest fantasy scoring seasons.2. Lamont Jordan, who ranked as RB8 in his only season under Turner in Oakland and never ranked higher than RB41 in any other season.IMO those are actually the best examples, because those two were essentially average talents that excelled by playing in a great situation under Turner and finished as top 5-10 RBs. (And in Davis's case subsequently in a great situation in Carolina, albeit with less success than he had under Turner.) IMO that's more meaningful than examples involving Smith, Tomlinson, Williams, and Gore, for anyone not convinced of Mathews' talent.I'm targeting Mathews and hope my leaguemates are thinking like a lot of Shark Poolers.

 

[Tau837]

By the way, thanks for the projections.

Will comment more later.

 

[Unlucky]

IMO I don't see Carlson's numbers going anywhere but up if he stays healthy. As far as Tate is concerned, I have a hard time having faith in rookie receivers. I think you're projections there look reasonable.

I do like Carlson's talent. I think my main reason for no increase was the loss of targets to Tate, a more adjusted Housh, better pass catching RBs, and a team that will run a little bit more often. They attempted 609 passes last year, which is a ton. If Carlson explodes for 70+ catches, I can't say I'd be surprised.

 

[two_dollars]

I like your list, and also agree with one of the posters regarding M. Bush.

I only have 1 disagreement, and this may be based off my scoring system of PPR, but I do not feel McCoy is over rated. Westbrook put up strong numbers in PPR and was never a TD guy.

 

[Go deep]

LINK: http://www.phenomsff.com/projections/proj-index.php

First, please read these caveats:

1. If a player isn't suspended or currently hurt, I project him to play all 16 games. None of us can predict injury, so it's a pointless exercise.

Stopped reading here. If you think Calvin Johnson has the same chance of injury as Andre Johnson, I don't have much use for your predictions.

Wait, which one do you think is more likely to get hurt?

 

[Unlucky]

2) Absolutely agree with you on Hightower being undervalued....but that said, your numbers (more rushing TD than Wells with a lot fewer yards) would suggest he will be the goal line back......and nothing Whisenhunt has done/said would suggest that. I think both AZ running backs will have value (and your projections of Leinart being good enough to hold the job all year and be effective are in agreement with that).

The RBBC in ARZ is really hard to predict. At this point, all that matters to me is that Wells is getting drafted way too high, and Hightower way too low.

 

[Unlucky]

It looks like you put a ton of work into your projections. Thanks.Your comment about Dwayne Bowe is strange. Bowe is a big, fast, physical and proven veteran receiver albeit with some workethic issues. To say he isnt that good is innacurate. I think your projections on CJ3 ang Greene are wildly optimistic. Vincent Jackson's numbers seem off. i don;t think he is playing this year.Big Ben ranked higher than Stafford with 12 games of work? I think his first 4 could be seriously rusty. This might be a lost season for Pitt and Ben.I think Crabtree's numbers could actually get a boost from where you have them. Vernon Davis is great of course, but slowly and surely wew will see Crabtree take over as the #1 target. Simply because he is faster and smarter and has much better hands. Plus he will have fewer blocking duties than Vern once the games start. This is to take nothing away from Davis, but Gates and Gonzalez are the only Tight End's in NFL hostory to consistently lead there respective teams in targets from one season to the next or in multiple different years. They are both hall of famers. I don't put Vern there yet. I have a feeling that we just saw the best year Vernon will ever have in the NFL.

All good points. Bowe doesn't really suck, but he hasn't seemed to fit in well with this coaching staff. Maybe a change of scenery would do him well. Too much downside for me to draft this year. Not sure what to do with Vincent Jackson - I know he's out 3 games, so I have to assume that's all for now. Ben is ranked higher on a PPG basis than Stafford. Of course, you'll need someone else for at least the first 4 weeks. I could be a touch low on Crabtree. I loved his talent coming out of college. He was really good right away considering he missed so much time last year. He should be a top 10 WR at some point soon, but I'm not sure this is the year. I'll have to look this over again, as I used to love 2nd and 3rd year breakout WRs. I have Maclin in this mold, yet Crabtree is a better talent.

 

[Unlucky]

275 carries! And I thought projections of 220-240 for Jahvid Best were laughable. We have a new record high projection. I also have a hard time buying the split between Portis and LJ. I expect LJ to get more than 4 carries a game.

What? Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris? Neither can carry Best's jock. At first, I figured more of a split as well. Then I looked at LJ's numbers the last few years. AWFUL. I went to Penn State. I love LJ. However, I think he's done. But reports the last few days seem to contradict this, so maybe I'll bump him up a little bit. Maybe.

 

[David Yudkin]

Chicago - I probably have to adjust the numbers. But I'm skeptical of this Martz magic. First, I'm not 100% sure that Cutler will be a great fit for this offense. I know the arm strength is there, the accuracy can be there, but is the quick decision making?

For those that are not aware, here' is Martz's track record in his first year with a new team (titles varied):1992 Rams -187 passing yards, +10 passing TD1997 Skins +128 passing yards, +10 passing TD1999 Rams +1199 passing yards, + 30 passing TD2006 Lions +1187 passing yards, +6 passing TD2008 49ers +1039 passing yards, +6 TDObviously the Bears totals were higher to start with than these other teams, so the impact of adding Martz will be less. But I still think he will up the Bears passing totlas not have them drop.

 

[Go deep]

2) Absolutely agree with you on Hightower being undervalued....but that said, your numbers (more rushing TD than Wells with a lot fewer yards) would suggest he will be the goal line back......and nothing Whisenhunt has done/said would suggest that. I think both AZ running backs will have value (and your projections of Leinart being good enough to hold the job all year and be effective are in agreement with that).

The RBBC in ARZ is really hard to predict. At this point, all that matters to me is that Wells is getting drafted way too high, and Hightower way too low.

The problem with Hightower is he will never be a guy i will want to be plugging in my starting lineup, especially in non-ppr leagues. I would rather spend my 9th/10th round pick on a backup(or starting) QB, or my #3/4 WR. Those players have a much better chance of seeing my starting lineup than Hightower. Wells has been going in the 3rd/4th round, but at least he has the potential to be a top 15 back. I dont see anyway a team can win a champiobship if they have to start Hightower in more than a game or two.