My positional rankings from week 11 onward (1 Viewer)

[travdogg]

QB:
Tier 1
1. Josh Allen(2)
2. Lamar Jackson(1)
Tier 2
3. Patrick Mahomes(7)...should have never moved him down in the first place. 
Tier 3
4. Kyler Murray(3)
Tier 4
5. Tom Brady(4)
6. Matthew Stafford(6)
Tier 5
7. Justin Herbert(8)
Tier 6
8. Dak Prescott(9)
9. Jalen Hurts(5)...high floor remains in run heavy offense, but the ceiling seems to be gone.
10. Joe Burrow(12)...just trust him more than the guys behind him right now. Rodgers and Wilson both looked a little rusty last week.
11. Aaron Rodgers(11)
12. Russell Wilson(10)
13. Justin Fields(13)
Tier 7
14. Kirk Cousins(15)
15. Derek Carr(NR)
Dropped out: Taysom Hill(kinda seems like Siemian is going to hold him off)
 

 

[travdogg]

RB
Tier 1
1. Jonathan Taylor(4)...his workload just keeps growing and the production is going with it. Its also a bit of a weaker year for a #1 RB, at least now that Henry is out. 
2. Austin Ekeler(1)
3. Christian McCaffrey(2)
Tier 2
4. Dalvin Cook(3)
Tier 3
5. Ezekiel Elliott(6)
6. Najee Harris(5)
7. Aaron Jones(7)...only out 1-2 weeks, so I'm not dropping him or putting Dillon on the list, though Dillon was close. Expecting Dillon to be Chubb-esq this week and maybe next though.
8. Saquon Barkley(9)
Tier 4
9. Nick Chubb(10)
10. Alvin Kamara(11)
11. James Conner(14)...Edmonds on IR lead to 84% of the snaps for Conner. In this offense anyone would be top-15 with that workload, and Conner is better than just anyone.
12. Cordarrelle Patterson(12)...7th at WR
13. James Robinson(15)...centerpiece of the offense, and seems healthy enough to go back to his full workloads, probably starting next week.
14. Darrell Henderson(13)
15. D'Andre Swift(8)...I know he had a big game, but I'm a little concerned that both backups came in and immediately broke long TD runs, and Williams will be back soon. I sense a smaller workload coming, but its more a hunch than anything else. 
Tier 5
16. Joe Mixon(16)
17. Kareem Hunt(17)
18. David Montgomery(18)
19. Elijah Mitchell(20)
20. Leonard Fournette(19)
Tier 6
21. Damien Harris(21)
22. Michael Carter(22)
23. Myles Gaskin(23)
Tier 7
24. Antonio Gibson(27)...seemed a little healthier coming out of the bye, and is a TD threat in any game Washington doesn;t get behind right away in.
25. Josh Jacobs(24)
26. Melvin Gordon(25)
27. Chris Carson(26)
28. Clyde Edwards-Helaire(28)
Tier 8
29. Tony Pollard(29)
30. Javonte Williams(30)
Dropped out: Zach Moss(was struggling to separate from Singletary, now Brieda may be a thing)
 

 

[travdogg]

WR
Tier 1
1. Tyreek Hill(1)
2. Davante Adams(2)
Tier 2
3. Cooper Kupp(3)
4. Ja'Marr Chase(4)
5. Justin Jefferson(5)
Tier 3
6. Deebo Samuel(6)
7. DK Metcalf(7)
8. Hollywood Brown(8)
9. DeAndre Hopkins(9)
10. AJ Brown(10)
Tier 4
11. CeeDee Lamb(18)...he's establishing himself as the clear #1, and Gallup's return didn't effect him at all.
12. Diontae Johnson(12)
13. Keenan Allen(14)
Tier 5
14. Mike Evans(15)
15. Chris Godwin(16)
16. Mike Williams(11)...still a believer in him and the Chargers offense in general, and I think he's a good buy-low, but you know going in he's going to be the very definition of boom/bust.
17. Adam Thielen(17)
18. Michael Pittman(19)
19. Terry McLaurin(21)
20. DJ Moore(26)...I'm not excited about Cam, but he's an upgrade at QB, and Moore has produced with him before. 
21. Brandin Cooks(22)
22. Tee Higgins(23)
Tier 6
23. Antonio Brown(24)
24. Stefon Diggs(13)...This is my big flag plant this week. Sell high on Diggs. Last week feels like a mirage to me, and not a sign of things to come. They identified a matchup and exploited it. Diggs saw 46% of the targets last week, he typically sees about half of that, he also was thrown to in the end zone a bunch and that isn't typical either. 
25. Amari Cooper(20)...Lamb is starting to become the alpha here, and Cooper is becoming a little boom/bust. Might be nothing, but worth noting his boom was with Rush at QB. 
26. Tyler Lockett(27)
27. Jaylen Waddle(31)
Tier 7
28. DeVonta Smith(38)...run heavy offense is giving him 1-1 on deep balls that he specializes on. Targets have been there all along, but now he seems to be getting more favorable coverage. 
29. Chase Claypool(29)
30. Sterling Shepard(30)
31. Jerry Jeudy(32)
32. Odell Beckham(NR)...is nowhere near the WR he once was, and track record for WRs switching teams midseason isn't great. That said, Woods going down opens a path to a decent amount of targets, and while I think he's still a great sell-high(was an even better one before Monday) WR3 production is doable. 
Tier 8
33. Christian Kirk(33)
34. Hunter Renfrow(37)
35. Courtland Sutton(28)...Jeudy seems to blown right past him, Sutton had 5-68 last game without Jeudy, has 5-78 in the 3 games since.
36. Kadarius Toney(34)
Tier 9
37. Emmanuel Sanders(35)
38. AJ Green(36)
39. Jakobi Meyers(NR)
40. Cole Beasley(40)
Dropped out: Robert Woods(torn ACL, will be missed) Marvin Jones(probably was on the list longer than he should have been)
 

 

[travdogg]

TE
Tier 1
1. Travis Kelce(1)
Tier 2
2. Darren Waller(2)
Tier 3
3. George Kittle(4)...looks like the Kittle we all know and love. Only thing keeping him down a tier, is Deebo seems to have cornered the #1 role.
4. Kyle Pitts(3)...has #1 overall ceiling, but can be schemed away by good defenses. A little too boom/bust to put higher.
Tier 4
5. Mark Andrews(5)
6. Mike Gesicki(6)
7. TJ Hockenson(7)
8. Dallas Goedert(9)
Tier 5
9. Rob Gronkowski(10)
10. Dawson Knox(11)
11. Logan Thomas(8)...beginning to wonder if his hamstring is going to be a hinderance all year, ala Julio. #2 role in passing game is his if he can get/stay on the field.  
12. Dalton Schultz(12)
13. Noah Fant(13)
Tier 6
14. Tyler Higbee(14)
Tier 7
15. Hunter Henry(15)
Dropped out: None

 

[eighsse]

Just wondering, as I have wondered about "rest of season rankings" in general: is the idea to rank them in order of total point production? Or to rank them for the average game that they in fact play. (For instance, Aaron Jones has a bye, and 1-2 games missed due to injury. Does that affect his rest of season rankings [and if it does, it ought to be very significantly, as that means he is likely missing almost half of the rest of the season])? Or do missed games not affect the rankings, meaning that the player is being ranked based on your expectations in only the games that he does in fact play?) Some may say this is minutia, but to me it is obvious that it makes a big difference.

 

[Chaka]

Bold flag planting on Diggs. Five games with double digit targets, two more with 8, TD in four games. And he still hasn't posted a monster yet.

Low end WR2 is bold AF.

 

[travdogg]

Bold flag planting on Diggs. Five games with double digit targets, two more with 8, TD in four games. And he still hasn't posted a monster yet.

Low end WR2 is bold AF.

Truthfully, I kind of want none of Buffalo other than Josh Allen. There are so many mouths to feed, and the way that defense is playing(unlike last season) they don't need to score all the points to win. 

Diggs will probably be better than I am ranking him, mostly because I have some banged up guys ahead of him, but I think he's a floor option, and his upside isn't as high as we had hoped it would be prior to this season. Value wise, he's back to being Minnesota Diggs again in my opinion.

I also don't see the TDs staying as steady either. 

Just wondering, as I have wondered about "rest of season rankings" in general: is the idea to rank them in order of total point production? Or to rank them for the average game that they in fact play. (For instance, Aaron Jones has a bye, and 1-2 games missed due to injury. Does that affect his rest of season rankings [and if it does, it ought to be very significantly, as that means he is likely missing almost half of the rest of the season])? Or do missed games not affect the rankings, meaning that the player is being ranked based on your expectations in only the games that he does in fact play?) Some may say this is minutia, but to me it is obvious that it makes a big difference.

Its kind of a combo of PPG and total points. I'm assessing value as well as production. For example, I'm less interested in 1-2 fill in types, and am more forgiving of guys who are injured, as long as they aren't out for too long. 

So in Aaron Jones case, I'm not going to punish him for likely being out until fantasy playoff time, because you aren't taking zeroes those weeks, you are starting someone else(probably Dillon in many cases) likewise, I'm not throwing Dillon up too high, knowing he has only 2 starts, and will be just a handcuff for the fantasy playoffs. 

 

[Team Smokin']

How bout I'M BACK? Does Superman sniff a QB 1?

Claypool at WR 29. Is he healthy enough to produce? 

And lets get the Allen to Knox connection back in the flow.

Nice work travdogg!

 

[travdogg]

How bout I'M BACK? Does Superman sniff a QB 1?

Claypool at WR 29. Is he healthy enough to produce? 

And lets get the Allen to Knox connection back in the flow.

Nice work travdogg!

Love Cam Newton, he's long been one of my favorite players to watch. However, he needs to prove a lot with his arm, to be considered a top-15 guy, let alone a QB1. His biggest impact fantasy wise, might be annoying CMC owners, by stealing GL TDs. 

Newton would be around QB20 if I went that far.

 

[Gally]

I think you need to give Dan Arnold some TE love.  He is Lawerence's favorite target and averaging about 7 targets a game.  That is great for a TE. He is #3 TE since his bye week (PPR) and more time with Jax will only help.  I would have him top 10 for sure and likely close to top 5 ROY.  

ETA:  Hock and Gronk are tough to keep where they are at based on current play and health respectively.  

 

[Team Smokin']

Love Cam Newton, he's long been one of my favorite players to watch. However, he needs to prove a lot with his arm, to be considered a top-15 guy, let alone a QB1. His biggest impact fantasy wise, might be annoying CMC owners, by stealing GL TDs. 

Newton would be around QB20 if I went that far.

Meaning QB 1 as a weekly top 12 QB play on some weeks. I see FBG's are buying in so far. 

 

[travdogg]

I think you need to give Dan Arnold some TE love.  He is Lawerence's favorite target and averaging about 7 targets a game.  That is great for a TE. He is #3 TE since his bye week and more time with Jax will only help.  I would have him top 10 for sure and likely close to top 5 ROY.  

I'm not seeing it with Arnold at all. He's had a nice floor I guess, but there is no ceiling at all. He was probably around TE20 for me, if I went that far. 60 yards and 0 TD's, isn't a player I'm interested in owning. 

James Robinson is the only Jaguar with value in my opinion.

Who would you have him over in my top-10? 

 

[TheWinz]

So in Aaron Jones case, I'm not going to punish him for likely being out until fantasy playoff time, because you aren't taking zeroes those weeks, you are starting someone else(probably Dillon in many cases) likewise, I'm not throwing Dillon up too high, knowing he has only 2 starts, and will be just a handcuff for the fantasy playoffs.

I think this is where I have my disconnect with your rankings.  In my league, only the top 4 teams even make the playoffs.  So yes, missed games are massive!  As you said, Aaron Jones may not even be back before fantasy playoffs, so what good is he on my bench if my season ends before he returns?  Sure, he is worth alot more to someone who has sewn up a playoff spot very early, but most teams are fighting right til the end.

 

[jobarules]

Allen at #1 and Diggs at 24 makes absolutely no sense at all.

 

[jobarules]

I'm not seeing it with Arnold at all. He's had a nice floor I guess, but there is no ceiling at all. He was probably around TE20 for me, if I went that far. 60 yards and 0 TD's, isn't a player I'm interested in owning. 

James Robinson is the only Jaguar with value in my opinion.

Who would you have him over in my top-10? 

60 yards and 0 tds has made him the #3 TE since the bye.

I'd put him right at #10 and take Gronk out

 

[wgoldsph]

Barkley hasn't ran for over 60 yards in two years and the giants line still sucks.   You couldn't even convince me to give up Kamara or chubb for Barkley plus a first unless it was guaranteed top three.

Also, you know who Dan Arnold has been better than since he was traded to the Jags?  Your number two guy, Waller.  TEs are crap this year and sometimes being able to pencil in five catches for 60 yards week after week is simply worth it for the consistency.

 

[travdogg]

Allen at #1 and Diggs at 24 makes absolutely no sense at all.

Why? Allen has 3 top-40 WRs, a borderline top-10 TE, and a good portion of Allen's value is with his legs. 

 

[TheWinz]

Why? Allen has 3 top-40 WRs, and a borderline top-10 TE, and a good portion of Allen's value is with his legs. 

Look at the bright side - you get to spend days defending your rankings!

 

[joffer]

still don't get Mixon.  In a tier with Hunt??

 

[Ben & Jerry's]

Friermuth should be in the top 15

 

[sho nuff]

Patterson not dropping yet with the ankle injury?

 

[Gally]

I'm not seeing it with Arnold at all. He's had a nice floor I guess, but there is no ceiling at all. He was probably around TE20 for me, if I went that far. 60 yards and 0 TD's, isn't a player I'm interested in owning. 

James Robinson is the only Jaguar with value in my opinion.

Who would you have him over in my top-10? 

I would have him right around Gesicki and Hock.  Probably above Hock who has not been very good the last few weeks.  Definitely ahead of Gronk (who knows when he plays) and Goedert (with concussion issues).

Arnold has been very good and has done this with no TD's.....

Which I think will come.  Even without the TD's he has been the #3 TE in PPR over the last three weeks (since his bye and being acclimated in Jax).

 

[travdogg]

I think this is where I have my disconnect with your rankings.  In my league, only the top 4 teams even make the playoffs.  So yes, missed games are massive!  As you said, Aaron Jones may not even be back before fantasy playoffs, so what good is he on my bench if my season ends before he returns?  Sure, he is worth alot more to someone who has sewn up a playoff spot very early, but most teams are fighting right til the end.

I am using the assumption that teams looking for rest of season rankings, are going to make the playoffs, and be championship contenders. Weekly rankings are much more sensible for teams barely hanging on. 

Look at the bright side - you get to spend days defending your rankings!

I do like the back and forth, and often see things from a different perspective. I try not to have any bias, whether if be towards players I own, and try to have a valid reason behind seeing things the way I do. 

60 yards and 0 tds has made him the #3 TE since the bye.

I'd put him right at #10 and take Gronk out

I remember when I got ripped several new ones for not having Gronk as a top-5 TE. 

Arnold hasn't been the #3 TE if you go off everyone's last 3 games though. Its a little cherry picking, because a bunch of teams had byes in there. Over everyone's  last 3 games, Arnold is TE8. 

Barkley hasn't ran for over 60 yards in two years and the giants line still sucks.   You couldn't even convince me to give up Kamara or chubb for Barkley plus a first unless it was guaranteed top three.

Also, you know who Dan Arnold has been better than since he was traded to the Jags?  Your number two guy, Waller.  TEs are crap this year and sometimes being able to pencil in five catches for 60 yards week after week is simply worth it for the consistency.

Giants line hasn't stopped Booker from being a top-15 RB, and it didn't stop Barkley from having 2 top-15 weeks, 1 of which was a week winner, before he got hurt this year. Also, 60 yards is a very arbitrary number. Barkley topped 50 yards in every game except 1 this season. Truthfully, I want to put Barkley higher. I think there is a case for him at the top of the tier, its only durability holding him back. 

Waller has demonstrated a ceiling Arnold can only dream of. He has a higher floor and higher ceiling. Are people believing this is Arnold's floor? I think its much closer to his ceiling, in a bad offense, with a bad QB(at least as a rookie) where as Waller is in a decent offense, with a good QB. 

 

[Gally]

Arnold hasn't been the #3 TE if you go off everyone's last 3 games though. Its a little cherry picking, because a bunch of teams had byes in there. Over everyone's  last 3 games, Arnold is TE8. 

If I go back the last 4 games in my PPR league Arnold is TE6 and that is off only 3 games played for Arnold with a bye.  Four of the top 5 have four games to Arnold's 3.

 

[travdogg]

  Probably above Hock who has not been very good the last few weeks. 

Hockenson is a game removed from a 10-89 game. Other than the very fluky goose egg this past week, he's basically been a rich man's Arnold, with 24 catches over his prior 3 games, and 2 games with at least 74 yards.

Patterson not dropping yet with the ankle injury?

I haven't heard it to be anything serious, seems like he's a GTD for Thursday, and was limited in practice today. 

Friermuth should be in the top 15

He's closer than Arnold for me, but still has some questions. He was less involved with Ebron back, whether that was due to Ebron or Rudolph starting is a fair question, but I'm not confident enough in him yet. 

still don't get Mixon.  In a tier with Hunt??

Full disclosure, I'm a Mixon dynasty owner. He makes me nervous every week. He's on the sideline for close to 40% of the snaps, he's not playing on 3rd downs(though he is still catching passes) and he's not seeing 20+ carry games anymore. He's been probably the most TD dependent RB in the NFL this season. He has 9 Td's through 9 games.  Its entirely possible that continues being the case, but if the TD's dry up, he's got very little else going for him. The Bengals have also been trending toward being more of a passing team over the last month, with mixed results. It worked against the Ravens, it bombed against the Browns. 

Hunt is TD dependent at times too, but his team is also the most run heavy team in the NFL, at least when everyone is healthy. That said, he was producing at close to the same pace as Mixon, and should jump right back to that when he comes back. 

 

[joffer]

Full disclosure, I'm a Mixon dynasty owner. He makes me nervous every week. He's on the sideline for close to 40% of the snaps, he's not playing on 3rd downs(though he is still catching passes) and he's not seeing 20+ carry games anymore. He's been probably the most TD dependent RB in the NFL this season. He has 9 Td's through 9 games.  Its entirely possible that continues being the case, but if the TD's dry up, he's got very little else going for him. The Bengals have also been trending toward being more of a passing team over the last month, with mixed results. It worked against the Ravens, it bombed against the Browns. 

Hunt is TD dependent at times too, but his team is also the most run heavy team in the NFL, at least when everyone is healthy. That said, he was producing at close to the same pace as Mixon, and should jump right back to that when he comes back. 

his carries are down, but his targets/receptions are up.  other than the huge week one, his touches have been pretty consistent.  in redraft, i wouldn't trade him straight up for the five guys above him, or Aaron Jones.  still, appreciate the posts.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Surprised to not see Bateman in the top 40 WRs.  I’d like to see his snap count higher, but he getting consistent targets and production so far.

 

[travdogg]

Surprised to not see Bateman in the top 40 WRs.  I’d like to see his snap count higher, but he getting consistent targets and production so far.

Nail on the head. I don't trust a WR who is on the bench for 40% of the game. Also, pretty much all of his production was garbage time last week, which I don't assume will be a position the Ravens will be in often. Bateman would have probably been around WR50 if I went that deep. 

 

[greenmountaingoat]

TE
Tier 1
1. Travis Kelce(1)
Tier 2
2. Darren Waller(2)
Tier 3
3. George Kittle(4)...looks like the Kittle we all know and love. Only thing keeping him down a tier, is Deebo seems to have cornered the #1 role.
4. Kyle Pitts(3)...has #1 overall ceiling, but can be schemed away by good defenses. A little too boom/bust to put higher.
Tier 4
5. Mark Andrews(5)
6. Mike Gesicki(6)
7. TJ Hockenson(7)
8. Dallas Goedert(9)
Tier 5
9. Rob Gronkowski(10)
10. Dawson Knox(11)
11. Logan Thomas(8)...beginning to wonder if his hamstring is going to be a hinderance all year, ala Julio. #2 role in passing game is his if he can get/stay on the field.  
12. Dalton Schultz(12)
13. Noah Fant(13)
Tier 6
14. Tyler Higbee(14)
Tier 7
15. Hunter Henry(15)
Dropped out: None

As the Pitts manager who faced off against my kid who rosters MANdrews last week, I am calling your TE rankings out this week.

1.Kelce. Still in his own tier. Had a couple of down weeks but KC's offense is going to get right and he's just going to keep smashing.

2-4.Waller-Kittle-Andrews in no particular order. All great.

5-10.5.Hock-Pitts- Henry-Fant-Gisecki-, maybe Arnold (Hunter is being relied upon by NE as the RZ passing option) Gisecki off the goose, but 7 targets? My man. Pitts- I'm not angry at you Pitts, I'm disappointed. Targets are there but getting double and triple teamed plus drops? I think he needs Ridley and a healthy Patterson out there to keep defenses honest. Until then, he's really not an elite option to plug into your lineup. I'm doing it, trust me it's fine but not great. Seeing Waller, Kittle, Andrews or Kelce against you in your week there's a feeling. Not a good feeling.

11.5-12.5 Gronk (elite if/when healthy, but not healthy so what's the point). Knox- we'll see. Was due for TD regression, hasn't really re-established himself. Could easily also be great.

13.5-17. Maybe Arnold, Friermuth-Higbee- maybe Godert and Schultz?, Logan Thomas if you're ever truly healthy, you'd get bumped up. Shultz looked like he was breaking out but now he's looking like a

18-23 Maybe Godert, Ertz-Kmet-Cook-Engram-Everett.  Any of them on a good week will compete well with tier 3 guys. Odds against but could happen.

 

[Team Smokin']

Just put out a trade offer. I trade DK Metcalf and receive Deebo Samuel. I see you have them right next to each other.

 

[kutta]

Just want to say I appreciate the effort here @travdogg - thanks.

 

[Truebluey]

I think you need to give Dan Arnold some TE love.  He is Lawerence's favorite target and averaging about 7 targets a game.  That is great for a TE. He is #3 TE since his bye week (PPR) and more time with Jax will only help.  I would have him top 10 for sure and likely close to top 5 ROY.  

ETA:  Hock and Gronk are tough to keep where they are at based on current play and health respectively.  

I tried to explain this to the OP last week, but he totally doesn't seem to get it. No matter that Arnold keeps posting top 10 performances (with zero TD's so far), OP seems to see him from the perspective of the past. Seems to be a pattern - see Kupp's ranking, when it's already clear that he won't be caught for WR1 this season. 

 

[TheWinz]

I tried to explain this to the OP last week, but he totally doesn't seem to get it. No matter that Arnold keeps posting top 10 performances (with zero TD's so far), OP seems to see him from the perspective of the past. Seems to be a pattern - see Kupp's ranking, when it's already clear that he won't be caught for WR1 this season. 

The rankings are the OP's and his alone.  I tried to ask several different ways how he comes to his conclusions, and he has attempted to answer without getting mad at me.  For example, I asked him why he didn't downgrade Aaron Jones after he got injured, and here was his response - I am using the assumption that teams looking for rest of season rankings, are going to make the playoffs, and be championship contenders. Weekly rankings are much more sensible for teams barely hanging on.

I guess by saying what he said above, his thread should actually be titled "My positional rankings from week 15 onward".  Either way, this thread creates fun debate, so just go with it.  

 

[humpback]

I tried to explain this to the OP last week, but he totally doesn't seem to get it. No matter that Arnold keeps posting top 10 performances (with zero TD's so far), OP seems to see him from the perspective of the past. Seems to be a pattern - see Kupp's ranking, when it's already clear that he won't be caught for WR1 this season. 

IMO you're the one who totally doesn't "get it". Again, this isn't necessarily a list of who is going to score the most FF points the rest of the way (although that's a big factor), and it certainly isn't a list of what place they are going to finish in at the end of the season. Kupp could be the #10 WR the rest of the way and still end up being the #1 WR on the season, but that means he "should have" been ranked ~#10 on this list, not #1.

He's explained his methodology and thought process multiple times, it's fine if you disagree with his opinion but your logic is way off base here.

 

[Insein]

Miles Sanders not on the list?

 

[humpback]

And zero targets for the great Dan Arnold....