My Pre season thoughts around the league (1 Viewer)

[cubbie5150]

 

[Knobs]

101 FF points. This should be around the top 10 . Maybe 8-12th?I know the prediction is a "little out there", but I have tried my best to share my rationale. We'll see what happens.

I appreciate the information. I don't doubt you, just having a hard time wrapping my ahead around Dallas having TWO top ten TE's.

 

[Knobs]

Pittsburgh - Sorry but Mendy is awful and very overated. Parker - rumors of his demise is very exaggerated. Parker might end up the RB value play. Holmes is over valued.

I am curious if you saw teh Steelers-Redskins game last week? I thought Mendenhall looked pretty good.

I have seen him make a few good runs - I even saw 1 good one in the Ravens game before he was injured. Just he runs so timid at least right now i can't see him as a NFL star at least not until changes are made.

I seem to remember similar things being said about another second-year RB drafted in the late first round a few years. But eventually Larry Johnson put it all together and became a stud.

LJ also had a monstrous offensive line to run behind. The Steelers oline is nowhere near what the Chiefs had. And we've seen what's become of LJ once that line died.

 

[There it is]

Excellent Read, thanks. Here are a couple of thoughts I would love to add

Chicago I really love Desmond Clark. Olsen is easily going to end up in the top 3 but Clark might hit the 10-12 range. Playing in a 2 TE league, he's a great late round addition

Detroit Kevin Smith is going to have a great season. He's got a real NFL head coach and offensive coordinators who can call plays.

Green Bay Visanthe Shiancoe is going to love having Farve as his QB

New Orleans Meachem will have a big year

St. Louis Won't touch anyone from this team with someone else's roster. Stay away except in late rounds

I love Des Clark too, a great value.

 

[Northbound Train]

How bout Justin Fargas in Oaktown

I realize the Raiders have alot invested in DMac but Fargas has proved that he can carry the rock if his number is called. His current ADP is around 165 which is right around R 13-14...I know we have to see what plays out in camp but he could get the lions share of carries again

Mark Wimer - While all the news indicates that Darren McFadden is back on top of his game entering 2009, Fargas remains the most proven back in the Oakland stable. This team rushed the ball 459 times last year - Fargas should garner enough carries to outproduce his lowly RB #57 ADP.

David Yudkin - Playing in a job share environment the past three years, Fargas has still averaged 65 yfs per game, ranking in the Top 50 each season. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush have struggled to stay healthy, so Fargas could still see a decent workload even if he's not expected to this year.

 

[Big]

 

[Godsbrother]

Pittsburgh - Sorry but Mendy is awful and very overated. Parker - rumors of his demise is very exaggerated. Parker might end up the RB value play. Holmes is over valued.

I am curious if you saw teh Steelers-Redskins game last week? I thought Mendenhall looked pretty good. I agree about Parker, BTW. He is still the main back...

I have seen him make a few good runs - I even saw 1 good one in the Ravens game before he was injured. Just he runs so timid at least right now i can't see him as a NFL star at least not until changes are made.

Still think he's the kind of back that will get what's blocked and nothing more.Just don't think he has the instincts or the passion for the game to improve much either.

100% hope I'm wrong.

You could be right I just don't think there is a big enough body of work to judge. For some reason I just have a hunch this kid is going to be alright.

 

[davearm]

How bout Justin Fargas in Oaktown

I realize the Raiders have alot invested in DMac but Fargas has proved that he can carry the rock if his number is called. His current ADP is around 165 which is right around R 13-14...I know we have to see what plays out in camp but he could get the lions share of carries again

Mark Wimer - While all the news indicates that Darren McFadden is back on top of his game entering 2009, Fargas remains the most proven back in the Oakland stable. This team rushed the ball 459 times last year - Fargas should garner enough carries to outproduce his lowly RB #57 ADP.

David Yudkin - Playing in a job share environment the past three years, Fargas has still averaged 65 yfs per game, ranking in the Top 50 each season. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush have struggled to stay healthy, so Fargas could still see a decent workload even if he's not expected to this year.

JMO but if you're of a mind to take a late-round flyer on a Raider RB, I'd make it Michael Bush. Being younger and more talented gives him a much higher upside than you have with Fargas. We know Fargas' ceiling, and it's just kinda meh.

 

[netnalp]

Martellus Bennett = HUGE value.

Do you believe he'll finish in the top ten?

Yes, I do.

Your own projections would make him hard pressed to crack the top ten based upon yardage...and 7-8 touchdowns? 4 te's had that many last year. I know you have a clue as to what's going on with the Cowboys, but I am having an extremely difficult time believing they'll have TWO top ten TE's.

I don't think he'll see the yardage to make him worth more than a waiver pickup for a buy week or injury. I'll take Boss over him. Boss should see more receptions, yards and about the same TDs (6tds)

 

[Manster]

I think Turner will disappoint. Turner feasted on bad teams last year. Those cupcakes on the schedule have been replaced with good teams because they are playing a first place schedule. Especially in a PPR format Turner will be overdrafted. Ryan may eventually be a top 6 fantasy QB, but it won't be this year. Ryan had a fantastic rookie season in NFL terms. He was mediocre as a fantasy QB. This is still a running team, so I think me may move up to 12th in fantasy scoring, but not much more.Ronnie Brown is not a value at all in the third round. Ronnie Brown scored four of his ten TDs against New England in week three because of the Wildcat. I don't know how many other TDs were out of the Wildcat formation. Teams run gadget offenses because they can't line up and beat you. NFL defensive coordinators should catch up with the Wildcat this year. I think he will struggle.Portis is being overdrafted. The number of carries over his career I think catches up with him this year. I think this is a bad offense, and a team on the verge of crumbling. But I think Campbell surfaces with another team next year and goes on to have a solid career. I think he is talented and has never been utililized properly in Washington. I wish the Raiders would trade Michael Bush. I think if you put him in a starting role he will shine. Seattle perhaps?Peyton Hillis is the back to have in Denver. He is too talented to keep off the field. Buckhalter has always been a back up and that is all he really is capable of.

disagree hereTurner flat out had a great season last year he was basically only held to 50 yards 3 times the rest of the time he had a good scorign week. He was amazingly consistent actually. Ronnie Brown was 1 year returned from a ACL and was sharign time. This year he will share much less and is 2 years removed from ACL. At tiem of injury he was a top 5 RB or playing like it at least.Portis is still age wise young and in his prime. Many are writing him off - I think he produces like a low end 1. I think Wash passing game improves this year and the line seems to be intact. I am thinking a 1500 / 10 season if he stays healthy.Bush I agree he is a solid back and would be nice if he started. Hillis - I have him as #4 on that depth chart. Currently Denver wants Buck to start and work Moreno in and eventually have Moreno take over full time around week 6. Jordan is the #3 abnd a favorite of McD.. Hillis getting anything but spot duty is a streth. maybe Hillis is the FB and gets Shorties though. Moreno and Buck both run tough and are solid short yardage guys.

I'm not saying Turner will be bad. I'm saying Turner will be overdrafted. His current ADP is 4th. I think that is too high. He had eight games where he ran for 100 yards. They were againstet-220-2 TDs-32nd against the runKan-104-3 TDs-30th against the run@GNB-121-1 TD-26th against the run@Oak-139-0 TDs-31st against the runCar-117-4 TDs-20th against the run@SD-120-0 TDs=11th against the runTam-152-1 TD-19th against the runStl-208-1 TD-29th against the runHis other games;@TB-42-0 TD-19th ATR@Car-56-0 TD-20th ATRChi-54-0 TD-5th ATR@Phi-58-0 TD-4th ATRNOR-96-1 TD-17th ATRDen-81-2 TD-27th ATR@Nor-61-1 TD-17th ATR@Min-70-1 TD-1st ATRLast year Turner only had four games against defenses in the top half of the league against the rush. Now granted you can only play the games they schedule but I think he feasted on weaker teams last year. This year his schedule is a lot harder. This is the schedule this year:Mia-10th ATRCar-20th ATR@NE-15th ATR@SF-13th ATRChi-5th ATR@Dal-12th ATR@Nor-17th ATRWas-8th ATR@Car-20th ATR@NYG-9th ATRTam-19th ATRPhi-4th ATRNor-17th ATR@NYJ-7th ATRBuf-22nd ATRSo last year they played four teams in the top half of the league against the run, and three in the top ten. This year they play ten teams ranked in the top half of the league, and six in the top ten. This year the worst team they play was ranked 22nd. Last year they played six teams ranked worse than that. The number of TDs against defenses in the bottom half of the league against the rush, 16. Number of TDs against teams in the top half of the league, 1. Now I know defensive rankings can change, teams jump up from year to year, and other teams slide. But this schedule is significantly harder than last year. I expect his rushing totals to drop to around 1400 to 1450, and TDs more in the range of 9 or 10. When you consider that he catches almost no passes his value drops considerably in PPR formats. So he is still a very good player, but a RB I would look at in the bottom half of the first round rather than at 4th where he is being drafted now.

like the discussion on Turner here. you guys both bring up good points.i drafted him in a non-ppr league at number 4 and feel very good about it.what i keep hearing is; his schedule is much harder, they'll throw more, his numbers most likely will come down, etc.......what i keep coming back to is, Ryan in his second year, Roddy, Gonzo, Turner, and Norwood. this offense has become pretty darn good. and who's the bell cow? Turner. when they get in the redzone, which should be often, Turner should have just as much, if not more opportunities.talented back with low mileage on an up and coming offense. whats not to like? i think guys are over-analyzing Turner and his schedule. theres no reason he shouldn't be a solid RB1

 

[Bankerguy]

Martellus Bennett = HUGE value.

Do you believe he'll finish in the top ten?

Yes, I do.

Your own projections would make him hard pressed to crack the top ten based upon yardage...and 7-8 touchdowns? 4 te's had that many last year. I know you have a clue as to what's going on with the Cowboys, but I am having an extremely difficult time believing they'll have TWO top ten TE's.

I don't think he'll see the yardage to make him worth more than a waiver pickup for a buy week or injury. I'll take Boss over him. Boss should see more receptions, yards and about the same TDs (6tds)

Feel free to post your projections then or perhaps you are interested in a friendly wager on Bennett vs. Boss?

 

[Manster]

Feel free to post your projections then or perhaps you are interested in a friendly wager on Bennett vs. Boss?

picked up Bennett in a redraft late. non-ppr, TD heavy league.

imo, he is at least a very good bye-week fill-in, with very good upside. for those in the know, this guy is a beast and will only get better. if Romo goes through his progressions well, Bennett will get some good ops. this guy is hard to cover. the Cowboys will get him the ball.