My really rough Top 100 List (1 Viewer)

[David Dodds]

Our rankings are about to debut in a few days. I expect to have my first projections completed around Thursday (no promises). I always like to jot down my perceived value and then run the numbers. I usually do not publish these lists without my projections, because they are very open to ridicule without numbers to support them.

This year I thought I would post to see how different things shake up once I actually do all the math.

This is non PPR scoring. 4 pts pass TDs. 6 pts rush/receiving TDs. 1 pt per 20 pass yards. 1 pt per 10 yards rush/receiving.

Enjoy.

Overall

1. RB1 Larry Johnson, KC

2. RB2 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

3. RB3 Shaun Alexander, SEA

4. RB4 Tiki Barber, NYG

5. RB5 Clinton Portis, WAS

6. RB6 Edgerrin James, ARI

7. RB7 Lamont Jordan, OAK

8. QB1 Peyton Manning, IND

9. WR1 Steve Smith, CAR

10. RB8 Ronnie Brown, MIA

11. RB9 Cadillac Williams, TB

12. RB10 Domanick Davis, HOU

13. RB11 Rudi Johnson, CIN

14. RB12 Brian Westbrook, PHI

15. WR2 Chad Johnson, CIN

16. WR3 Terrell Owens, DAL

17. RB13 Steven Jackson, STL

18. RB14 Willis McGahee, BUF

19. WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

20. RB15 Kevin Jones, DET

21. WR5 Torry Holt, STL

22. RB16 Reuben Droughns, CLE

23. WR6 Randy Moss, OAK

24. RB17 Jamal Lewis, BAL

25. RB18 Willie Parker, PIT

26. WR7 Marvin Harrison, IND

27. RB19 Warrick Dunn, ATL

28. TE1 Antonio Gates, SD

29. WR8 Anquan Boldin, ARI

30. WR9 Reggie Wayne, IND

31. WR10 Roy Williams, DET

32. WR11 Chris Chambers, MIA

33. WR12 Hines Ward, PIT

34. WR13 Donald Driver, GB

35. RB20 Thomas Jones, CHI

36. RB21 Deuce McAllister, NO

37. TE2 Jeremy Shockey, NYG

38. WR14 Santana Moss, WAS

39. QB2 Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

40. RB22 Ahman Green, GB

41. TE3 Tony Gonzalez, KC

42. WR15 Darrell Jackson, SEA

43. QB3 Tom Brady, NE

44. RB23 Julius Jones, DAL

45. WR16 Plaxico Burress, NYG

46. WR17 Javon Walker, DEN

47. RB24 DeShaun Foster, CAR

48. QB4 Eli Manning, NYG

49. WR18 Deion Branch, NE

50. WR19 Andre Johnson, HOU

51. QB5 Marc Bulger, STL

52. RB25 Reggie Bush, NO

53. QB6 Donovan McNabb, PHI

54. WR20 Joey Galloway, TB

55. RB26 Chester Taylor, MIN

56. RB27 Chris Brown, TEN

57. WR21 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN

58. RB28 Joseph Addai, IND

59. RB29 Fred Taylor, JAX

60. WR22 Rod Smith, DEN

61. WR23 Laveranues Coles, NYJ

62. WR24 Lee Evans, BUF

63. RB30 Tatum Bell, DEN

64. QB7 Michael Vick, ATL

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

66. TE4 Jason Witten, DAL

67. WR26 Derrick Mason, BAL

68. QB8 Drew Bledsoe, DAL

69. WR27 Jerry Porter, OAK

70. RB31 Corey Dillon, NE

71. QB9 Jake Plummer, DEN

72. WR28 Isaac Bruce, STL

73. WR29 Eddie Kennison, KC

74. WR30 Antonio Bryant, SF

75. RB32 Curtis Martin, NYJ

76. TE5 Alge Crumpler, ATL

77. WR31 Jimmy Smith, JAX

78. QB10 Jake Delhomme, CAR

79. RB33 Kevan Barlow, SF

80. TE6 Todd Heap, BAL

81. WR32 Drew Bennett, TEN

82. WR33 Muhsin Muhammad, CHI

83. QB11 Trent Green, KC

84. RB34 Dominic Rhodes, IND

85. WR34 Keyshawn Johnson, CAR

86. QB12 Brett Favre, GB

87. RB35 Frank Gore, SF

88. WR35 Michael Clayton, TB

89. TE7 Randy McMichael, MIA

90. WR36 Eric Moulds, HOU

91. Def1 Chicago Bears, CHI

92. QB13 Aaron Brooks, OAK

93. TE8 Vernon Davis, SF

94. RB36 Cedric Benson, CHI

95. WR37 Joe Jurevicius, CLE

96. WR38 Donte Stallworth, NO

97. Def2 Carolina Panthers, CAR

98. QB14 Carson Palmer, CIN

99. WR39 Nate Burleson, SEA

100. Def3 Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT

101. QB15 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

102. TE9 L.J. Smith, PHI

103. RB37 Laurence Maroney, NE

104. WR40 Terry Glenn, DAL

105. QB16 Drew Brees, NO

106. TE10 Chris Cooley, WAS

107. WR41 Mike Williams, DET

108. QB17 Kurt Warner, ARI

109. WR42 Keenan McCardell, SD

110. RB38 DeAngelo Williams, CAR

111. RB39 Mewelde Moore, MIN

112. WR43 David Givens, TEN

113. QB18 Byron Leftwich, JAX

114. RB40 T.J. Duckett, ATL

115. WR44 Reggie Brown, PHI

116. RB41 Lendale White, TEN

117. RB42 Ron Dayne, DEN

118. WR45 Michael Jenkins, ATL

Individual lists:

Quarterbacks:

8. QB1 Peyton Manning, IND

39. QB2 Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

43. QB3 Tom Brady, NE

48. QB4 Eli Manning, NYG

51. QB5 Marc Bulger, STL

53. QB6 Donovan McNabb, PHI

64. QB7 Michael Vick, ATL

68. QB8 Drew Bledsoe, DAL

71. QB9 Jake Plummer, DEN

78. QB10 Jake Delhomme, CAR

83. QB11 Trent Green, KC

86. QB12 Brett Favre, GB

92. QB13 Aaron Brooks, OAK

98. QB14 Carson Palmer, CIN

101. QB15 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

105. QB16 Drew Brees, NO

108. QB17 Kurt Warner, ARI

113. QB18 Byron Leftwich, JAX

Running Backs:

1. RB1 Larry Johnson, KC

2. RB2 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

3. RB3 Shaun Alexander, SEA

4. RB4 Tiki Barber, NYG

5. RB5 Clinton Portis, WAS

6. RB6 Edgerrin James, ARI

7. RB7 Lamont Jordan, OAK

10. RB8 Ronnie Brown, MIA

11. RB9 Cadillac Williams, TB

12. RB10 Domanick Davis, HOU

13. RB11 Rudi Johnson, CIN

14. RB12 Brian Westbrook, PHI

17. RB13 Steven Jackson, STL

18. RB14 Willis McGahee, BUF

20. RB15 Kevin Jones, DET

22. RB16 Reuben Droughns, CLE

24. RB17 Jamal Lewis, BAL

25. RB18 Willie Parker, PIT

27. RB19 Warrick Dunn, ATL

35. RB20 Thomas Jones, CHI

36. RB21 Deuce McAllister, NO

40. RB22 Ahman Green, GB

44. RB23 Julius Jones, DAL

47. RB24 DeShaun Foster, CAR

52. RB25 Reggie Bush, NO

55. RB26 Chester Taylor, MIN

56. RB27 Chris Brown, TEN

58. RB28 Joseph Addai, IND

59. RB29 Fred Taylor, JAX

63. RB30 Tatum Bell, DEN

70. RB31 Corey Dillon, NE

75. RB32 Curtis Martin, NYJ

79. RB33 Kevan Barlow, SF

84. RB34 Dominic Rhodes, IND

87. RB35 Frank Gore, SF

94. RB36 Cedric Benson, CHI

103. RB37 Laurence Maroney, NE

110. RB38 DeAngelo Williams, CAR

111. RB39 Mewelde Moore, MIN

114. RB40 T.J. Duckett, ATL

116. RB41 Lendale White, TEN

117. RB42 Ron Dayne, DEN

Tight Ends:

28. TE1 Antonio Gates, SD

37. TE2 Jeremy Shockey, NYG

41. TE3 Tony Gonzalez, KC

66. TE4 Jason Witten, DAL

76. TE5 Alge Crumpler, ATL

80. TE6 Todd Heap, BAL

89. TE7 Randy McMichael, MIA

93. TE8 Vernon Davis, SF

102. TE9 L.J. Smith, PHI

106. TE10 Chris Cooley, WAS

Wide Receivers:

9. WR1 Steve Smith, CAR

15. WR2 Chad Johnson, CIN

16. WR3 Terrell Owens, DAL

19. WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

21. WR5 Torry Holt, STL

23. WR6 Randy Moss, OAK

26. WR7 Marvin Harrison, IND

29. WR8 Anquan Boldin, ARI

30. WR9 Reggie Wayne, IND

31. WR10 Roy Williams, DET

32. WR11 Chris Chambers, MIA

33. WR12 Hines Ward, PIT

34. WR13 Donald Driver, GB

38. WR14 Santana Moss, WAS

42. WR15 Darrell Jackson, SEA

45. WR16 Plaxico Burress, NYG

46. WR17 Javon Walker, DEN

49. WR18 Deion Branch, NE

50. WR19 Andre Johnson, HOU

54. WR20 Joey Galloway, TB

57. WR21 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN

60. WR22 Rod Smith, DEN

61. WR23 Laveranues Coles, NYJ

62. WR24 Lee Evans, BUF

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

67. WR26 Derrick Mason, BAL

69. WR27 Jerry Porter, OAK

72. WR28 Isaac Bruce, STL

73. WR29 Eddie Kennison, KC

74. WR30 Antonio Bryant, SF

77. WR31 Jimmy Smith, JAX

81. WR32 Drew Bennett, TEN

82. WR33 Muhsin Muhammad, CHI

85. WR34 Keyshawn Johnson, CAR

88. WR35 Michael Clayton, TB

90. WR36 Eric Moulds, HOU

95. WR37 Joe Jurevicius, CLE

96. WR38 Donte Stallworth, NO

99. WR39 Nate Burleson, SEA

104. WR40 Terry Glenn, DAL

107. WR41 Mike Williams, DET

109. WR42 Keenan McCardell, SD

112. WR43 David Givens, TEN

115. WR44 Reggie Brown, PHI

118. WR45 Michael Jenkins, ATL

 

[Joe Bryant]

Loving this.

J

 

[EBF]

The only thing that jumps out to me right away is Roethlisberger at 15. I think he's going to start moving up towards the elite range in the coming years. A few reasons for my optimism:

- He led the league in yards per attempt last year and was among the league leaders in that category as a rookie.

- Without Bettis around, the power running game might be de-emphasized in favor of a more open attack involving Parker in a Westbrook type role.

- Pittsburgh has used its last two first round picks on a TE and a WR, suggesting that they're beginning to build the offense around their QB. I realize that they needed to replace Randle El, but I still view the Holmes pick as a good sign for Roethlisberger's future.

 

[Arnold. S]

nice list, although I think that Mark Clayton belongs somewhere on the list, infront of guys like Mike Williams and Michael Jenkins

 

[Avery]

Not critiquing the rankings, but one of the first things to jump out at me is the difference between QB1 and QB2 in overall rankings (8 to 39) is staggering.

Far more value there of 1 vs 2 then any other position by a long shot.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Our rankings are about to debut in a few days.  I expect to have my first projections completed around Thursday (no promises).  I always like to jot down my perceived value and then run the numbers.  I usually do not publish these lists without my projections, because they are very open to ridicule without numbers to support them.

This year I thought I would post to see how different things shake up once I actually do all the math.

This is non PPR scoring.  4 pts pass TDs. 6 pts rush/receiving TDs.  1 pt per 20 pass yards.  1 pt per 10 yards rush/receiving.

Enjoy.

Overall

1. RB1 Larry Johnson, KC

2. RB2 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

3. RB3 Shaun Alexander, SEA

4. RB4 Tiki Barber, NYG

5. RB5 Clinton Portis, WAS

6. RB6 Edgerrin James, ARI

7. RB7 Lamont Jordan, OAK

8. QB1 Peyton Manning, IND

9. WR1 Steve Smith, CAR

10. RB8 Ronnie Brown, MIA

11. RB9 Cadillac Williams, TB

12. RB10 Domanick Davis, HOU

13. RB11 Rudi Johnson, CIN

14. RB12 Brian Westbrook, PHI

15. WR2 Chad Johnson, CIN

16. WR3 Terrell Owens, DAL

17. RB13 Steven Jackson, STL

18. RB14 Willis McGahee, BUF

19. WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

20. RB15 Kevin Jones, DET

21. WR5 Torry Holt, STL

22. RB16 Reuben Droughns, CLE

23. WR6 Randy Moss, OAK

24. RB17 Jamal Lewis, BAL

25. RB18 Willie Parker, PIT

26. WR7 Marvin Harrison, IND

27. RB19 Warrick Dunn, ATL

28. TE1 Antonio Gates, SD

29. WR8 Anquan Boldin, ARI

30. WR9 Reggie Wayne, IND

31. WR10 Roy Williams, DET

32. WR11 Chris Chambers, MIA

33. WR12 Hines Ward, PIT

34. WR13 Donald Driver, GB

35. RB20 Thomas Jones, CHI

36. RB21 Deuce McAllister, NO

37. TE2 Jeremy Shockey, NYG

38. WR14 Santana Moss, WAS

39. QB2 Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

40. RB22 Ahman Green, GB

41. TE3 Tony Gonzalez, KC

42. WR15 Darrell Jackson, SEA

43. QB3 Tom Brady, NE

44. RB23 Julius Jones, DAL

45. WR16 Plaxico Burress, NYG

46. WR17 Javon Walker, DEN

47. RB24 DeShaun Foster, CAR

48. QB4 Eli Manning, NYG

49. WR18 Deion Branch, NE

50. WR19 Andre Johnson, HOU

51. QB5 Marc Bulger, STL

52. RB25 Reggie Bush, NO

53. QB6 Donovan McNabb, PHI

54. WR20 Joey Galloway, TB

55. RB26 Chester Taylor, MIN

56. RB27 Chris Brown, TEN

57. WR21 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN

58. RB28 Joseph Addai, IND

59. RB29 Fred Taylor, JAX

60. WR22 Rod Smith, DEN

61. WR23 Laveranues Coles, NYJ

62. WR24 Lee Evans, BUF

63. RB30 Tatum Bell, DEN

64. QB7 Michael Vick, ATL

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

66. TE4 Jason Witten, DAL

67. WR26 Derrick Mason, BAL

68. QB8 Drew Bledsoe, DAL

69. WR27 Jerry Porter, OAK

70. RB31 Corey Dillon, NE

71. QB9 Jake Plummer, DEN

72. WR28 Isaac Bruce, STL

73. WR29 Eddie Kennison, KC

74. WR30 Antonio Bryant, SF

75. RB32 Curtis Martin, NYJ

76. TE5 Alge Crumpler, ATL

77. WR31 Jimmy Smith, JAX

78. QB10 Jake Delhomme, CAR

79. RB33 Kevan Barlow, SF

80. TE6 Todd Heap, BAL

81. WR32 Drew Bennett, TEN

82. WR33 Muhsin Muhammad, CHI

83. QB11 Trent Green, KC

84. RB34 Dominic Rhodes, IND

85. WR34 Keyshawn Johnson, CAR

86. QB12 Brett Favre, GB

87. RB35 Frank Gore, SF

88. WR35 Michael Clayton, TB

89. TE7 Randy McMichael, MIA

90. WR36 Eric Moulds, HOU

91. Def1 Chicago Bears, CHI

92. QB13 Aaron Brooks, OAK

93. TE8 Vernon Davis, SF

94. RB36 Cedric Benson, CHI

95. WR37 Joe Jurevicius, CLE

96. WR38 Donte Stallworth, NO

97. Def2 Carolina Panthers, CAR

98. QB14 Carson Palmer, CIN

99. WR39 Nate Burleson, SEA

100. Def3 Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT

101. QB15 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

102. TE9 L.J. Smith, PHI

103. RB37 Laurence Maroney, NE

104. WR40 Terry Glenn, DAL

105. QB16 Drew Brees, NO

106. TE10 Chris Cooley, WAS

107. WR41 Mike Williams, DET

108. QB17 Kurt Warner, ARI

109. WR42 Keenan McCardell, SD

110. RB38 DeAngelo Williams, CAR

111. RB39 Mewelde Moore, MIN

112. WR43 David Givens, TEN

113. QB18 Byron Leftwich, JAX

114. RB40 T.J. Duckett, ATL

115. WR44 Reggie Brown, PHI

116. RB41 Lendale White, TEN

117. RB42 Ron Dayne, DEN

118. WR45 Michael Jenkins, ATL

Individual lists:

Quarterbacks:

8. QB1 Peyton Manning, IND

39. QB2 Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

43. QB3 Tom Brady, NE

48. QB4 Eli Manning, NYG

51. QB5 Marc Bulger, STL

53. QB6 Donovan McNabb, PHI

64. QB7 Michael Vick, ATL

68. QB8 Drew Bledsoe, DAL

71. QB9 Jake Plummer, DEN

78. QB10 Jake Delhomme, CAR

83. QB11 Trent Green, KC

86. QB12 Brett Favre, GB

92. QB13 Aaron Brooks, OAK

98. QB14 Carson Palmer, CIN

101. QB15 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

105. QB16 Drew Brees, NO

108. QB17 Kurt Warner, ARI

113. QB18 Byron Leftwich, JAX

Running Backs:

1. RB1 Larry Johnson, KC

2. RB2 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

3. RB3 Shaun Alexander, SEA

4. RB4 Tiki Barber, NYG

5. RB5 Clinton Portis, WAS

6. RB6 Edgerrin James, ARI

7. RB7 Lamont Jordan, OAK

10. RB8 Ronnie Brown, MIA

11. RB9 Cadillac Williams, TB

12. RB10 Domanick Davis, HOU

13. RB11 Rudi Johnson, CIN

14. RB12 Brian Westbrook, PHI

17. RB13 Steven Jackson, STL

18. RB14 Willis McGahee, BUF

20. RB15 Kevin Jones, DET

22. RB16 Reuben Droughns, CLE

24. RB17 Jamal Lewis, BAL

25. RB18 Willie Parker, PIT

27. RB19 Warrick Dunn, ATL

35. RB20 Thomas Jones, CHI

36. RB21 Deuce McAllister, NO

40. RB22 Ahman Green, GB

44. RB23 Julius Jones, DAL

47. RB24 DeShaun Foster, CAR

52. RB25 Reggie Bush, NO

55. RB26 Chester Taylor, MIN

56. RB27 Chris Brown, TEN

58. RB28 Joseph Addai, IND

59. RB29 Fred Taylor, JAX

63. RB30 Tatum Bell, DEN

70. RB31 Corey Dillon, NE

75. RB32 Curtis Martin, NYJ

79. RB33 Kevan Barlow, SF

84. RB34 Dominic Rhodes, IND

87. RB35 Frank Gore, SF

94. RB36 Cedric Benson, CHI

103. RB37 Laurence Maroney, NE

110. RB38 DeAngelo Williams, CAR

111. RB39 Mewelde Moore, MIN

114. RB40 T.J. Duckett, ATL

116. RB41 Lendale White, TEN

117. RB42 Ron Dayne, DEN

Tight Ends:

28. TE1 Antonio Gates, SD

37. TE2 Jeremy Shockey, NYG

41. TE3 Tony Gonzalez, KC

66. TE4 Jason Witten, DAL

76. TE5 Alge Crumpler, ATL

80. TE6 Todd Heap, BAL

89. TE7 Randy McMichael, MIA

93. TE8 Vernon Davis, SF

102. TE9 L.J. Smith, PHI

106. TE10 Chris Cooley, WAS

Wide Receivers:

9. WR1 Steve Smith, CAR

15. WR2 Chad Johnson, CIN

16. WR3 Terrell Owens, DAL

19. WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

21. WR5 Torry Holt, STL

23. WR6 Randy Moss, OAK

26. WR7 Marvin Harrison, IND

29. WR8 Anquan Boldin, ARI

30. WR9 Reggie Wayne, IND

31. WR10 Roy Williams, DET

32. WR11 Chris Chambers, MIA

33. WR12 Hines Ward, PIT

34. WR13 Donald Driver, GB

38. WR14 Santana Moss, WAS

42. WR15 Darrell Jackson, SEA

45. WR16 Plaxico Burress, NYG

46. WR17 Javon Walker, DEN

49. WR18 Deion Branch, NE

50. WR19 Andre Johnson, HOU

54. WR20 Joey Galloway, TB

57. WR21 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN

60. WR22 Rod Smith, DEN

61. WR23 Laveranues Coles, NYJ

62. WR24 Lee Evans, BUF

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

67. WR26 Derrick Mason, BAL

69. WR27 Jerry Porter, OAK

72. WR28 Isaac Bruce, STL

73. WR29 Eddie Kennison, KC

74. WR30 Antonio Bryant, SF

77. WR31 Jimmy Smith, JAX

81. WR32 Drew Bennett, TEN

82. WR33 Muhsin Muhammad, CHI

85. WR34 Keyshawn Johnson, CAR

88. WR35 Michael Clayton, TB

90. WR36 Eric Moulds, HOU

95. WR37 Joe Jurevicius, CLE

96. WR38 Donte Stallworth, NO

99. WR39 Nate Burleson, SEA

104. WR40 Terry Glenn, DAL

107. WR41 Mike Williams, DET

109. WR42 Keenan McCardell, SD

112. WR43 David Givens, TEN

115. WR44 Reggie Brown, PHI

118. WR45 Michael Jenkins, ATL

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Might as well give my opinions here...to hopefully stir up discussion about this.42. WR15 Darrell Jackson, SEA

Way too low, IMO. I think people are underrating him just because he got hurt last year, but he is a top 10 WR. He's consistently good, which can't be said for a lot of people on the list, and with WRs that's value in itself. He's a low-risk, good reward pick. 1200 yards and 8 TDs season in and season out is nothing to sneeze at, and those stats alone would put him in the top 10. Now, throw in potential (given that he's still young, and he's firmly entrenched as Hasselbeck's #1 target), and his consistency, and I'd put him at 8 or 9.

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

I like where you put him, but I think he's a huge sleeper this year. He sucked badly last year, due to injury and a bad QB. When Brees comes back, he could be huge in that offense again, and a top 12 guy.

6. RB6 Edgerrin James, ARI

I explained in the other thread, but he's not even in my top ten right now. He might sneak in there, but I just don't see it. Someone's really going to have to convince me that he can put up RB6 numbers in Arizona, with that offense, that defense, and that QB.

35. RB20 Thomas Jones, CHI

I think he's going to do it again, honestly. I think Benson is still going to be sitting on the bench, as with a Brees/Rivers situation, until they finally trade Jones.

That's all I've got for now, but hopefully, that'll make people talk.

 

[aposulli]

nice list, although I think that Mark Clayton belongs somewhere on the list, infront of guys like Mike Williams and Michael Jenkins

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good catch. Unless you were planning on bumping up Clayton once McNair signs.

 

[ExaltedOne]

Did you actually project numbers or are you just guestimating positions? I'm not trying to offend you as I think most of your positions are good but I'd like to see some early projections. I don't like Bush's position though.

I don't think Bush will have any trouble outperforming Ahman Green and Deuce McAllister, who are both recovering from major knee surgery. It took Edgerrin James, who I think we'll all agree is a better athlete than either, two years to get back to his old self.

I think they will have a pretty even split of the carries with 10-15 each, with Bush getting some extra work in the receiving game. If he lines up at receiver, he's bigger and faster and possibly has better hands than Sinorice Moss and Santonio Holmes.

 

[Couch Potato]

David,

As a fellow Bay Area resident I've noticed your tendency to sometimes overvalue 49ers in the past (Barlow, Lloyd come to mind). Be careful with Antonio Bryant at #30. That's quite a bit higher than most would put him, I think. For example, the consensus dynasty rankings only have him at #45, and that factors in his youth and future upside with QB Smith developing. You might want to just consider whether you could be ranking Bryant with local-colored glasses on.

CP

 

[Workhorse]

70. RB31 Corey Dillon, NE

The only way I see that is if Maroney is higher than Dillon based on more playing time. But you've got Maroney at RB37...

You've got Barlow and Gore at RB33 and RB35 respectively, just to compare. Are you saying that the Niners will have a comperable running game to the Patriots?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Nicely done. I'd like to talk you down just a little on TO though. He's played in one offense his entire career and this one is new. Dallas won't sling it like Philly. The led the league in time of possession by design. I'm just sayin', TO's great and all, but this may not be the fantasy gold anticipated.

On the other hand I think Glenn may be a big beneficiary of this situation. So does he for what it's worth. No more double teams like last year.

I think Washington has gone way out of their way to not be so reliant on Santana, and I think Galloway has found his groove as an old fart. I'd be tempted to just about switch those two.

Great job, my .02.

 

[chedha]

Quarterbacks:

8. QB1 Peyton Manning, IND

39. QB2 Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

43. QB3 Tom Brady, NE

48. QB4 Eli Manning, NYG

51. QB5 Marc Bulger, STL

53. QB6 Donovan McNabb, PHI

64. QB7 Michael Vick, ATL

68. QB8 Drew Bledsoe, DAL

71. QB9 Jake Plummer, DEN

78. QB10 Jake Delhomme, CAR

83. QB11 Trent Green, KC

86. QB12 Brett Favre, GB

92. QB13 Aaron Brooks, OAK

98. QB14 Carson Palmer, CIN

101. QB15 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

105. QB16 Drew Brees, NO

108. QB17 Kurt Warner, ARI

113. QB18 Byron Leftwich, JAX

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I assume you think Palmer will not be back in time to have him that low. Also, it's interesting you have Eli ranked higher than Marc Bulger. I know there's a knew regime in St. Louis, but I rank him above eli.

Running Backs:

1. RB1 Larry Johnson, KC

2. RB2 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

3. RB3 Shaun Alexander, SEA

4. RB4 Tiki Barber, NYG

5. RB5 Clinton Portis, WAS

6. RB6 Edgerrin James, ARI

7. RB7 Lamont Jordan, OAK

10. RB8 Ronnie Brown, MIA

11. RB9 Cadillac Williams, TB

12. RB10 Domanick Davis, HOU

13. RB11 Rudi Johnson, CIN

14. RB12 Brian Westbrook, PHI

17. RB13 Steven Jackson, STL

18. RB14 Willis McGahee, BUF

20. RB15 Kevin Jones, DET

22. RB16 Reuben Droughns, CLE

24. RB17 Jamal Lewis, BAL

25. RB18 Willie Parker, PIT

27. RB19 Warrick Dunn, ATL

35. RB20 Thomas Jones, CHI

36. RB21 Deuce McAllister, NO

40. RB22 Ahman Green, GB

44. RB23 Julius Jones, DAL

47. RB24 DeShaun Foster, CAR

52. RB25 Reggie Bush, NO

55. RB26 Chester Taylor, MIN

56. RB27 Chris Brown, TEN

58. RB28 Joseph Addai, IND

59. RB29 Fred Taylor, JAX

63. RB30 Tatum Bell, DEN

70. RB31 Corey Dillon, NE

75. RB32 Curtis Martin, NYJ

79. RB33 Kevan Barlow, SF

84. RB34 Dominic Rhodes, IND

87. RB35 Frank Gore, SF

94. RB36 Cedric Benson, CHI

103. RB37 Laurence Maroney, NE

110. RB38 DeAngelo Williams, CAR

111. RB39 Mewelde Moore, MIN

114. RB40 T.J. Duckett, ATL

116. RB41 Lendale White, TEN

117. RB42 Ron Dayne, DEN

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Interesting no Den running backs are in the top 25, when they are ranked 1 or 2 in rushing year in, year out.

Tight Ends:

28. TE1 Antonio Gates, SD

37. TE2 Jeremy Shockey, NYG

41. TE3 Tony Gonzalez, KC

66. TE4 Jason Witten, DAL

76. TE5 Alge Crumpler, ATL

80. TE6 Todd Heap, BAL

89. TE7 Randy McMichael, MIA

93. TE8 Vernon Davis, SF

102. TE9 L.J. Smith, PHI

106. TE10 Chris Cooley, WAS

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Makes sense to me

Wide Receivers:

9. WR1 Steve Smith, CAR

15. WR2 Chad Johnson, CIN

16. WR3 Terrell Owens, DAL

19. WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

21. WR5 Torry Holt, STL

23. WR6 Randy Moss, OAK

26. WR7 Marvin Harrison, IND

29. WR8 Anquan Boldin, ARI

30. WR9 Reggie Wayne, IND

31. WR10 Roy Williams, DET

32. WR11 Chris Chambers, MIA

33. WR12 Hines Ward, PIT

34. WR13 Donald Driver, GB

38. WR14 Santana Moss, WAS

42. WR15 Darrell Jackson, SEA

45. WR16 Plaxico Burress, NYG

46. WR17 Javon Walker, DEN

49. WR18 Deion Branch, NE

50. WR19 Andre Johnson, HOU

54. WR20 Joey Galloway, TB

57. WR21 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN

60. WR22 Rod Smith, DEN

61. WR23 Laveranues Coles, NYJ

62. WR24 Lee Evans, BUF

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

67. WR26 Derrick Mason, BAL

69. WR27 Jerry Porter, OAK

72. WR28 Isaac Bruce, STL

73. WR29 Eddie Kennison, KC

74. WR30 Antonio Bryant, SF

77. WR31 Jimmy Smith, JAX

81. WR32 Drew Bennett, TEN

82. WR33 Muhsin Muhammad, CHI

85. WR34 Keyshawn Johnson, CAR

88. WR35 Michael Clayton, TB

90. WR36 Eric Moulds, HOU

95. WR37 Joe Jurevicius, CLE

96. WR38 Donte Stallworth, NO

99. WR39 Nate Burleson, SEA

104. WR40 Terry Glenn, DAL

107. WR41 Mike Williams, DET

109. WR42 Keenan McCardell, SD

112. WR43 David Givens, TEN

115. WR44 Reggie Brown, PHI

118. WR45 Michael Jenkins, ATL

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

List makes sense also, although I would move D.Jax to the 10 spot

 

[lebowski]

Good list

I think you are going to see a lot of debate for the top 3 RB's this year.

 

[David Dodds]

I will be honest in that I can't really even defend half of this list until I really start cranking through my projections.

On DJax - He will move up once we know he is good to go from the shoulder surgery.

On Palmer - Huge unknown. If completely healthy by week 1 and throwing well, he could move all the way to #2 or #3. He also could sit the whole year.

on NE RBs - I see a three-headed monster there today (Dillon, Maroney and Kevin Faulk). I also think there defense will be significantly worse so you could see more passing going on.

on SF players in general - This team has so many questions that I am not sure I will even have an accurate situation after I do the numbers.

on Denver RBs - Agreed that if one person emerges and is the lone back all year he will be golden. As of today I still see RBBC.

on Chi RBs - Also souring on Benson here. Thomas Jones could jump up again.

on QBs in general - It seems like only Peyton Manning and Brady have excellent situations. So many question marks with the rest of the QBs may put an extra premium on the few studs while dropping the rest all around rounds 7 through 10. This will likely be the valuable time to draft the QBs.

 

[warpedone]

Interesting no Den running backs are in the top 25, when they are ranked 1 or 2 in rushing year in, year out.

This is what immediately jumped out at me too. Lots more love for the NO run game than Denver?Other initial comments:Az with two receivers in the top 8 but QB at 17 - is this the Leinart factor? I also see a major drop for Edge...he's good but he's not superman.Look for FWP go nuts this year...much better than RB18

 

[Workhorse]

on NE RBs - I see a three-headed monster there today (Dillon, Maroney and Kevin Faulk). I also think there defense will be significantly worse so you could see more passing going on.

Could be. But the Pats also play a much softer schedule than last year -- And while their defense might be worse, the divisional offenses they play are dreadful and haven't improved much, if at all. Put another way, the Pats defense has far fewer question marks than the Miami, NYJ and Bills offenses.But your point is well taken on the 3-RBs. Could be a massive committee there. But if Dillon gets the majority of the goal line work, he might score 10+ TDs.

 

[Donnybrook]

Interesting...

Culpepper unranked but: WR11 Chris Chambers, MIA.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Love the work here, however one change is I think you should swap Vick from 7 and change him with Brooks at 13. Take away last season and Brooks has been a good fantasy player year in and year out. He was a consistent top 10 finisher in NO's and Oakland has a scary offense developing for next season. I would rather have Brooks in Oakland than Vick any day.

 

[chedha]

on Denver RBs - Agreed that if one person emerges and is the lone back all year he will be golden.  As of today I still see RBBC.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I understand, and I agree with the fact that Den. is looking like RBBC at this point. But you've got McCallister and Bush at 21 and 25, and from the looks of it, they will be in a RBBC as well, and NO isn't nearly the rushing offense that Den. is, and NO has a new regime as well. You've got Tatum and Dayne ranked at 30 and 42, and they're in an offense that churns out RB production like no other offense in the league. I believe Mike Anderson was still a top 15 back, even though he was splitting with tatum.

 

[Crippler]

In my home league Anderson and Bell where 10 and 23rd ranked RB's. I think low also

I agree with Chaos and one other point to make with his is that Bledsoe/Glenn have a relationship going back along time and in the clutch I think he will look to Glenn. QB/WR develop these close relationships and I think they have one.

 

[Keys Myaths]

on Denver RBs - Agreed that if one person emerges and is the lone back all year he will be golden.  As of today I still see RBBC.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I understand, and I agree with the fact that Den. is looking like RBBC at this point. But you've got McCallister and Bush at 21 and 25, and from the looks of it, they will be in a RBBC as well, and NO isn't nearly the rushing offense that Den. is, and NO has a new regime as well. You've got Tatum and Dayne ranked at 30 and 42, and they're in an offense that churns out RB production like no other offense in the league. I believe Mike Anderson was still a top 15 back, even though he was splitting with tatum.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Anderson was RB10 last year, even with Tatum.

 

[Sweet Love]

I find it interesting that RB 20 does not come off the board until pick #35. Last year I felt as though WR6 was still on the board at 35 (after Moss, Owens, Holt, CJ and Walker) while this year 13 WRs are gone at that point.

If your projections do not alter this trend too much, you may have to change the "Perfect Draft" article significantly this year as it would be a stretch to get value after picking your third RB with your third pick (three in a row).

Interesting trend and great list!

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

 

[perry147]

Wide Receivers:

9. WR1 Steve Smith, CAR

15. WR2 Chad Johnson, CIN

16. WR3 Terrell Owens, DAL

19. WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

21. WR5 Torry Holt, STL

23. WR6 Randy Moss, OAK

26. WR7 Marvin Harrison, IND

29. WR8 Anquan Boldin, ARI

30. WR9 Reggie Wayne, IND

31. WR10 Roy Williams, DET

32. WR11 Chris Chambers, MIA

33. WR12 Hines Ward, PIT

34. WR13 Donald Driver, GB

38. WR14 Santana Moss, WAS

42. WR15 Darrell Jackson, SEA

45. WR16 Plaxico Burress, NYG

46. WR17 Javon Walker, DEN

49. WR18 Deion Branch, NE

50. WR19 Andre Johnson, HOU

54. WR20 Joey Galloway, TB

57. WR21 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN

60. WR22 Rod Smith, DEN

61. WR23 Laveranues Coles, NYJ

62. WR24 Lee Evans, BUF

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

67. WR26 Derrick Mason, BAL

69. WR27 Jerry Porter, OAK

72. WR28 Isaac Bruce, STL

73. WR29 Eddie Kennison, KC

74. WR30 Antonio Bryant, SF

77. WR31 Jimmy Smith, JAX

81. WR32 Drew Bennett, TEN

82. WR33 Muhsin Muhammad, CHI

85. WR34 Keyshawn Johnson, CAR

88. WR35 Michael Clayton, TB

90. WR36 Eric Moulds, HOU

95. WR37 Joe Jurevicius, CLE

96. WR38 Donte Stallworth, NO

99. WR39 Nate Burleson, SEA

104. WR40 Terry Glenn, DAL

107. WR41 Mike Williams, DET

109. WR42 Keenan McCardell, SD

112. WR43 David Givens, TEN

115. WR44 Reggie Brown, PHI

118. WR45 Michael Jenkins, ATL

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

DDDo you really think that with the addition of Edge to the Cards offense that both Fitz and Boldin will be in the top 8? One of the reasons both did well last year was because the team had no running game and played from behind a lot last year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

This is nit-picking but I would slide Andre Johnson down a good 10 spots.

 

[msommer]

Did you actually project numbers or are you just guestimating positions?  I'm not trying to offend you as I think most of your positions are good but I'd like to see some early projections.  I don't like Bush's position though.

I don't think Bush will have any trouble outperforming Ahman Green and Deuce McAllister, who are both recovering from major knee surgery.  It took Edgerrin James, who I think we'll all agree is a better athlete than either, two years to get back to his old self.

I think they will have a pretty even split of the carries with 10-15 each, with Bush getting some extra work in the receiving game.  If he lines up at receiver, he's bigger and faster and possibly has better hands than Sinorice Moss and Santonio Holmes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ahman did did not have major knee surgery in terms of ACL/MCL/PCL - he had surgery to re attach a tendon in his thigh. Totally different ballgame.Not saying he won't suck - but facts are facts and in this case you were wrong

 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Why are people down on Benson at this point? Seems like a complaining, seeking-a-trade Tom Jones could only be good news for Benson.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

On Palmer - Huge unknown.  If completely healthy by week 1 and throwing well, he could move all the way to #2 or #3.  He also could sit the whole year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Have you seen anything suggesting he might miss the whole season? I've been trying to keep an eye on this in the blogger, but everything so far suggests he's going to miss just a few games at most. I know that this time of year the coaching staff isn't going to come out and say "Oh man, this rehab is going horribly and I think we're ####ed" but still.

 

[5Rings]

Nice job, David.

To echo CP's comments, I'd move Bryant down a bit, as a) Nolan will still run the ball all day, especially with the improvement/growth of the OL, b) Smith is still very raw in the passing game, and c) I think VD catches as many balls as Bryant.

I'd temper my enthusiasm on Bryant down to the 700yd/4td range this season. I just don't see the SF passing offense throwing for more than 2500 yds or so, and I have half of that going to Bryant and VD.

Nice to see Barlow get some love. I'm one of the few who think he'll be a great value in redrafts this year.

 

[On The Rocks]

Might as well give my opinions here...to hopefully stir up discussion about this.

42. WR15 Darrell Jackson, SEA

Way too low, IMO.  I think people are underrating him just because he got hurt last year, but he is a top 10 WR.  He's consistently good, which can't be said for a lot of people on the list, and with WRs that's value in itself.  He's a low-risk, good reward pick.  1200 yards and 8 TDs season in and season out is nothing to sneeze at, and those stats alone would put him in the top 10.  Now, throw in potential (given that he's still young, and he's firmly entrenched as Hasselbeck's #1 target), and his consistency, and I'd put him at 8 or 9.

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

I like where you put him, but I think he's a huge sleeper this year.  He sucked badly last year, due to injury and a bad QB.  When Brees comes back, he could be huge in that offense again, and a top 12 guy.

6. RB6 Edgerrin James, ARI

I explained in the other thread, but he's not even in my top ten right now.  He might sneak in there, but I just don't see it.  Someone's really going to have to convince me that he can put up RB6 numbers in Arizona, with that offense, that defense, and that QB.

35. RB20 Thomas Jones, CHI

I think he's going to do it again, honestly.  I think Benson is still going to be sitting on the bench, as with a Brees/Rivers situation, until they finally trade Jones.

That's all I've got for now, but hopefully, that'll make people talk.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i think i agree with all of these except the Joe Horn thing. I think Dodds has him about right.

 

[Keys Myaths]

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

I like where you put him, but I think he's a huge sleeper this year.  He sucked badly last year, due to injury and a bad QB.  When Brees comes back, he could be huge in that offense again, and a top 12 guy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i think i agree with all of these except the Joe Horn thing. I think Dodds has him about right.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then we completely agree.

 

[On The Rocks]

I am not ganging up, because as David has mentioned this is a first look list.

I like the list, but after a quick look, here are some considerations.

QB LIST

Michael Vick gets dropped down half a dozen slots. He will never be a guy I feel confident in.

Jake Plummer moves up into the top 5QB on my list.

Jake Delhomme moves ups a few slots closeer to the top 5QB.

RB LIST:

Edgerin James moves down a few slots. I think he has a dropoff behind the Cards OL and I think Warner has a huge drop off at QB which won't help Edge.

Lamont Jordan moves down a few slots. I think they are crossing their fingers that Gallery isn't a bust. I think he will be good, but not an elite OT. I also think the move from Collins to Brooks at QB hurts Jordan.

Ronnie Brown moves down a few slots just because I am not convinced he can take the pounding of an every down back, and if also think they throw the ball a slight percentage more this year than last.

Tatum Bell moves up a few slots. I don't know. I just think he is top 20RB without Mike Anderson around.

TE LIST:

Antonio Gates moves a few slots on the "Overall List". Not much but a little. I just don't see him sliding behind the likes of Droughns, and Dunn.

Chris Cooley moves up to the top 5TE for me. He had a big year and is still developing.

WR LIST:

I move Roy Williams down. I don't like the fact they don't have anyone to throw the ball to him or his WR compatriots.

 

[On The Rocks]

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

I like where you put him, but I think he's a huge sleeper this year.  He sucked badly last year, due to injury and a bad QB.  When Brees comes back, he could be huge in that offense again, and a top 12 guy.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i think i agree with all of these except the Joe Horn thing. I think Dodds has him about right.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Then we completely agree.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

let me adjust my glasses:

 

[elcohiba]

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

A few more things:

Either I'm overvaluing Julius Jones or alot of people are really really down on him. You've got him listed behind Ahman Green and Deuce, who last time I checked both have had major injuries/ surgeries. Deuce with Bush and Gado & Davenport are both back in GB. And then you dont have MB3 in your top50.

Kevin Jones at rb15 is too high.

Warrick Dunn undervalued at rb19.

Dillon at 31? They took Maroney, but I think it takes a season for him to take over, I dont think Corey gives it up without a fight. I think that pick can be seen as light a fire under Corey pick.

Roy Williams at WR10, in front of DJax, Plax, Chambers and S.Moss.

Big believer in Martz? new system , new QB's, Oline is horrible and it wasn't addressed in FA or the draft. Alot has to go right in Detroit for Kjones & Roywill to be top 15 at their positions

Issac bruce at 28 is fine but no mention of K.Curtis at all.

 

[Franknbeans]

Peyton should drop out of the Top 10 overall, seriously.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Dave - stop wasting your time with FF and get back to the tables...

 

[10993]

A bit too high:

3. RB3 Shaun Alexander, SEA

4. RB4 Tiki Barber, NYG

6. RB6 Edgerrin James, ARI

9. WR1 Steve Smith, CAR

14. RB12 Brian Westbrook, PHI

24. RB17 Jamal Lewis, BAL

36. RB21 Deuce McAllister, NO

38. WR14 Santana Moss, WAS

40. RB22 Ahman Green, GB

44. RB23 Julius Jones, DAL

48. QB4 Eli Manning, NYG

54. WR20 Joey Galloway, TB

59. RB29 Fred Taylor, JAX

64. QB7 Michael Vick, ATL

65. WR25 Joe Horn, NO

67. WR26 Derrick Mason, BAL

68. QB8 Drew Bledsoe, DAL

70. RB31 Corey Dillon, NE

72. WR28 Isaac Bruce, STL

73. WR29 Eddie Kennison, KC

74. WR30 Antonio Bryant, SF

75. RB32 Curtis Martin, NYJ

85. WR34 Keyshawn Johnson, CAR

86. QB12 Brett Favre, GB

91. Def1 Chicago Bears, CHI

95. WR37 Joe Jurevicius, CLE

97. Def2 Carolina Panthers, CAR

100. Def3 Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT

107. WR41 Mike Williams, DET

116. RB41 Lendale White, TEN

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[10993]

A bit too low:

5. RB5 Clinton Portis, WAS

13. RB11 Rudi Johnson, CIN

17. RB13 Steven Jackson, STL

19. WR4 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

20. RB15 Kevin Jones, DET

28. TE1 Antonio Gates, SD

32. WR11 Chris Chambers, MIA

35. RB20 Thomas Jones, CHI

37. TE2 Jeremy Shockey, NYG

43. QB3 Tom Brady, NE

46. WR17 Javon Walker, DEN

49. WR18 Deion Branch, NE

52. RB25 Reggie Bush, NO

55. RB26 Chester Taylor, MIN

56. RB27 Chris Brown, TEN

63. RB30 Tatum Bell, DEN

84. RB34 Dominic Rhodes, IND

88. WR35 Michael Clayton, TB

98. QB14 Carson Palmer, CIN

101. QB15 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

102. TE9 L.J. Smith, PHI

103. RB37 Laurence Maroney, NE

108. QB17 Kurt Warner, ARI

110. RB38 DeAngelo Williams, CAR

115. WR44 Reggie Brown, PHI

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[David Dodds]

Thanks Everyone. We owe a Top 100 list to a Street and Smith magazine by Wednesday and this will help me get the list much better. I will post my tweaked list to the website when ready (and then create a new Top 200 with comments once I complete my projections).

 

[Couch Potato]

Thanks Everyone.  We owe a Top 100 list to a Street and Smith magazine by Wednesday and this will help me get the list much better.  I will post my tweaked list to the website when ready (and then create a new Top 200 with comments once I complete my projections).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Street & Smith... LOL... I did my first fantasy draft with a S&S mag in hand in 1981. No fantasy rankings back then, of course. I don't go to the magazine racks for football info any more, but it's good to hear they are still alive and kicking.

 

[Joe T]

Some interesting placements.

I don't like Roy Williams there. Until he finishes a season I'd see him more in the 20-25 range.

I think the ranking of Warner is a VERY interesting one this season. I'd love to have the guy on my roster and probably will. He is a pure value play. For the games he plays... he will be a top 3 QB. So given that he might go as late as you have him ranked, he is a huge value. I don't know where to rank him at this point because I don't know where to put a guy that I can only count on for a limited number of games. My gut tells me it will be more in the QB 8-10 range.

 

[gang-wars]

I was reading the Street and Smith draft preview.

It was okay until "Deangelo Williams needs to take better care of the ball in the NFL". The guy didn't have a fumble in his college career?

 

[Joe T]

I think Terry Glenn is a huge value play where you have him as well.

He finished '05 as the #12 WR. I'm not sure T.O. will take away any of his catches (62). If anything he might take away a couple of his TD's (8) but that would still leave Glenn as a top 20 WR.

I can't wait to see Glenn in one on one coverage because of the attention T.O. will demand. I think his numbers will be similar to last year. I'd expect him to finish in the WR 12-15 range... no where near WR 40.

 

[Pat Patriot]

I will be honest in that I can't really even defend half of this list until I really start cranking through my projections. 

On DJax - He will move up once we know he is good to go from the shoulder surgery.

On Palmer - Huge unknown.  If completely healthy by week 1 and throwing well, he could move all the way to #2 or #3.  He also could sit the whole year.

on NE RBs - I see a three-headed monster there today (Dillon, Maroney and Kevin Faulk).  I also think there defense will be significantly worse so you could see more passing going on. 

on SF players in general - This team has so many questions that I am not sure I will even have an accurate situation after I do the numbers.

on Denver RBs - Agreed that if one person emerges and is the lone back all year he will be golden.  As of today I still see RBBC.

on Chi RBs - Also souring on Benson here.  Thomas Jones could jump up again.

on QBs in general - It seems like only Peyton Manning and Brady have excellent situations.  So many question marks with the rest of the QBs may put an extra premium on the few studs while dropping the rest all around rounds 7 through 10.  This will likely be the valuable time to draft the QBs.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Before you start screaming HOMER, I'm going to ask Patriot related questions because that is what I am interested in.As someone else had mentioned, why the big disparity between Manning #9 and Brady #43. In my league, basic scoring, Brady outscored Manning last year. Have you bumped Manning up a bunch because Edge left or have you downgraded Brady because he lost Givens, Dwight and Davis?

I'm also interested in why you think their Defense will be significantly worse? They lost only McGinest from last years D. They did not draft any defense but are still very young across the line and have good LB's. It remains to be seen if Harrison comes back but they have Gay returning and added Warfield. I dont see them at the level they were in the playoffs but I dont see that much slippage.

 

[nightshift]

Thanks Everyone.  We owe a Top 100 list to a Street and Smith magazine by Wednesday and this will help me get the list much better.  I will post my tweaked list to the website when ready (and then create a new Top 200 with comments once I complete my projections).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your rough work is better than most people's finished lists. Thank you.

 

[kal-el]

Not critiquing the rankings, but one of the first things to jump out at me is the difference between QB1 and QB2 in overall rankings (8 to 39) is staggering.

Far more value there of 1 vs 2 then any other position by a long shot.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

And the sweet spot for drafting QBs isn't going to be until about round 9--maybe later. Brees and Warner have durability issues due to injury/age, but they could both easily put up numbers in the ballpark of Hasselbeck.

 

[SoloMatisse]

Good to hear this is just the rough draft.

-SA .....Im sure its crazy to forecast a 'jinxed' year, but just draft with caution here.

-Ronnie Brown and Rudi Johnson....who's QBing those teams and what will they do? Palmer and DC coming off ACLs are dropping these two guys' #s.

-Kevin Jones still gets more love than he's earned....15th??? What''s his career high in TDs again?....

-Corey Dillon @ 31?....cmon, Fred Taylor is 29 for goodness sake. I mean the guy stunk last year and still scored 12TDs. That O is well-oiled and he's still the #1 back. Id switch him with KJones.

-low expectations for Steve Jackson?....how many games will he miss?

-Dom Rhodes @34 is a little crazy. He's looking like this year's Thomas Jones.

my hand is getting tired. tighten up.

 

[Slider]

This is nit-picking but I would slide Andre Johnson down a good 10 spots.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would move him up 15.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

This is nit-picking but I would slide Andre Johnson down a good 10 spots.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I would move him up 15.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

GL with that