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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)

I feel for anyone that has been on FAZ at all lately. Shesh. I really could use a FAS pullback. The call options I wrote for Aug were at 60 and 66.

 
JaxBill said:
KERX up big in premarket. What is an SPA? Does this just mean that the FDA just agrees with the design of the study?

NEW YORK, Aug. 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Keryx Biopharmaceuticals,Inc. (Nasdaq: KERX) announced today that it has reached agreement withthe U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding a SpecialProtocol Assessment (SPA) on the design of a Phase 3 trial for itsPI3K/Akt pathway inhibitor, KRX-0401 (perifosine), in relapsed orrelapsed / refractory multiple myeloma patients previously treatedwith bortezomib (VELCADE ). The SPA provides agreement that the Phase3 study design adequately addresses objectives in support of aregulatory submission. The trial, entitled, "A Phase 3 RandomizedStudy to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Perifosine Added to theCombination of Bortezomib and Dexamethasone in Multiple MyelomaPatients Previously Treated with Bortezomib" will be a double-blind,placebo-controlled trial comparing the efficacy and safety of KRX-0401vs. placebo when combined with bortezomib and dexamethasone. Thetrial, powered at 90%, will enroll approximately 400 patients withrelapsed or relapsed / refractory multiple myeloma. The primaryendpoint is progression-free survival and secondary endpoints includeoverall response rate, overall survival and safety.
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To oversimplify a SPA, a SPA is an agreement that if the drug achieves X endpoint, then the FDA will approve the drug (e.g. if perifosine acheives statistically significant overall survival over control arm). They used to represent an almost guarantee, but nowadays the FDA gives out a lot more of them, and sticks to their agreement less and less. It's still an indication that the FDA likes what it has seen to date on the program.
 
By the by, congrats on CENX, it's been a rocket ship. Also, CHK has been a missile for a month now. Wish I'd held instead of getting out when it was way down.

 
Currently own UUP but it broke pretty critical support. So I hedged it with UDN. Its not like FAS and FAZ, they actually track each other well. Incremental returns until the dollar gets bullish again. :lmao:

 
MGM reported decent numbers. Still looks like a good valuation play with easy upside to 10+ by december. I called its floor at 7 and it broke that and went under 6 briefly. Was a great buy then and at 7.60 is still a worthy investment. LVS got hammered after they reported not so good numbers but looks likes it will be resillient to the bad numbers. WYNN is on a tear and i had sold and taken profits twice now buying sept. 55 calls (thanks cramer). I will look to add december calls on all three of these on any decent pullback.

 
Sold off 2/3's of my position on CENX @ 9.44

Nice run up today, will bank a 30% gain in just about a month and a half. Still keeping a small position.

 
This has been so frustrating during this run up as I have watched FREE do mostly nothing and HEB has bled money. I am back to daytrading FREE here (buying at 1.85 and selling at 1.90). Just starting here so have not added or sold shares yet today. I was afraid to set a market order at the opening so I put in a sell for 5,000 at 1.95 yet it did not execute. The fact that all the Shippers are up today when the BDI is retreating though should bode well for this in the coming days. I still think FREE will hit $2.25 at least before earnings. And it's starting to look like I will be holding until then as well.

 
David Dodds said:
This has been so frustrating during this run up as I have watched FREE do mostly nothing and HEB has bled money. I am back to daytrading FREE here (buying at 1.85 and selling at 1.90). Just starting here so have not added or sold shares yet today. I was afraid to set a market order at the opening so I put in a sell for 5,000 at 1.95 yet it did not execute. The fact that all the Shippers are up today when the BDI is retreating though should bode well for this in the coming days. I still think FREE will hit $2.25 at least before earnings. And it's starting to look like I will be holding until then as well.
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EXM reports before market open on wednesday, You used to own them. Any take?
 
At least you are not still not in that CNB turd because it's getting destroyed.

 
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can we see CENX $10? I'm holding 1,000 shares, but got stopped out of another 1,000 at $7.20 last week (still made 1/2 pt on it).

 
The PRGN choo-choo is up 5% today. Whoo-hoo! (I'm still in the red by 8% though and will be tempted to sell at any point I'm in the green).

 
The Z Machine said:
The PRGN choo-choo is up 5% today. Whoo-hoo! (I'm still in the red by 8% though and will be tempted to sell at any point I'm in the green).
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PRGN is an easy $5.00 by next week. I know some people on this board are impatient but Ill take another 10-15% in 7 days and be happy as a pig in sh7t.
 
Mark Davis said:
I'm just getting steamrolled by FAS. I guess this thing is going to be 100 by options expiration.
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what was the trade:Wrote on the FAS calls & the puts on FAZ?Which months? Which strikes?And when did you write the position?There might be a way to work yourself out of the position.
 
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siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
I'm just getting steamrolled by FAS. I guess this thing is going to be 100 by options expiration.
Click to expand...
what was the trade:Wrote on the FAS calls & the puts on FAZ?Which months? Which strikes?And when did you write the position?There might be a way to work yourself out of the position.
Click to expand...
Just wrote FAS calls. I liked essentially shorting FAS better than buying FAZ with the past showing they both tended to lose value over time. The strikes are the Aug 60 and Aug 66. I wrote it a few weeks ago, not sure of the exact date. They were both out of the money at the time and now only one of them is. If FAS just holds steady until the end of the month around 62, my loss is very minimal. With the little I collected I think my break even after commissions is about 61. But above and beyond that it grows pretty fast. Of course if FAS drops under 60 then they both expire worthless. This was one of those that I could have sold off and booked profit on at one point and I just held thinking they would expire and got caught underneath the tidal wave of the rally the past 3 weeks.
 
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
I'm just getting steamrolled by FAS. I guess this thing is going to be 100 by options expiration.
Click to expand...
what was the trade:Wrote on the FAS calls & the puts on FAZ?Which months? Which strikes?And when did you write the position?There might be a way to work yourself out of the position.
Click to expand...
Just wrote FAS calls. I liked essentially shorting FAS better than buying FAZ with the past showing they both tended to lose value over time. The strikes are the Aug 60 and Aug 66. I wrote it a few weeks ago, not sure of the exact date. They were both out of the money at the time and now only one of them is. If FAS just holds steady until the end of the month around 62, my loss is very minimal. With the little I collected I think my break even after commissions is about 61. But above and beyond that it grows pretty fast. Of course if FAS drops under 60 then they both expire worthless. This was one of those that I could have sold off and booked profit on at one point and I just held thinking they would expire and got caught underneath the tidal wave of the rally the past 3 weeks.
Click to expand...
If you don't mind...how much did you get for writing each position?60 calls=$_____credit66 calls=$_____credit
 
siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
I'm just getting steamrolled by FAS. I guess this thing is going to be 100 by options expiration.
Click to expand...
what was the trade:Wrote on the FAS calls & the puts on FAZ?Which months? Which strikes?And when did you write the position?There might be a way to work yourself out of the position.
Click to expand...
Just wrote FAS calls. I liked essentially shorting FAS better than buying FAZ with the past showing they both tended to lose value over time. The strikes are the Aug 60 and Aug 66. I wrote it a few weeks ago, not sure of the exact date. They were both out of the money at the time and now only one of them is. If FAS just holds steady until the end of the month around 62, my loss is very minimal. With the little I collected I think my break even after commissions is about 61. But above and beyond that it grows pretty fast. Of course if FAS drops under 60 then they both expire worthless. This was one of those that I could have sold off and booked profit on at one point and I just held thinking they would expire and got caught underneath the tidal wave of the rally the past 3 weeks.
Click to expand...
If you don't mind...how much did you get for writing each position?60 calls=$_____credit66 calls=$_____credit
Click to expand...
I'm afraid I don't have a ton of room on these. I got $.50 on the 66's and $.45 on the 60's. Obviously the 66 was wrote when FAS was higher, then as it fell I wrote the one at 60. The 66 got as low as $.10 or $.15. The 60 got to where it was ahead by about a dime or so and then FAS started this run.
 
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
I'm just getting steamrolled by FAS. I guess this thing is going to be 100 by options expiration.
Click to expand...
what was the trade:Wrote on the FAS calls & the puts on FAZ?Which months? Which strikes?And when did you write the position?There might be a way to work yourself out of the position.
Click to expand...
Just wrote FAS calls. I liked essentially shorting FAS better than buying FAZ with the past showing they both tended to lose value over time. The strikes are the Aug 60 and Aug 66. I wrote it a few weeks ago, not sure of the exact date. They were both out of the money at the time and now only one of them is. If FAS just holds steady until the end of the month around 62, my loss is very minimal. With the little I collected I think my break even after commissions is about 61. But above and beyond that it grows pretty fast. Of course if FAS drops under 60 then they both expire worthless. This was one of those that I could have sold off and booked profit on at one point and I just held thinking they would expire and got caught underneath the tidal wave of the rally the past 3 weeks.
Click to expand...
If you don't mind...how much did you get for writing each position?60 calls=$_____credit66 calls=$_____credit
Click to expand...
I'm afraid I don't have a ton of room on these. I got $.50 on the 66's and $.45 on the 60's. Obviously the 66 was wrote when FAS was higher, then as it fell I wrote the one at 60. The 66 got as low as $.10 or $.15. The 60 got to where it was ahead by about a dime or so and then FAS started this run.
Click to expand...
Ugg! Ok...x how many contracts
 
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Ugg! Ok...x how many contracts
Click to expand...
Nothing major, just 1 each. I play these pretty small.
Click to expand...
Ok...that's not a disaster.You'll need to do a couple of things.First of all you need some way to determine the short term trend of this thing. Simplest thing I can think of that would work for you is to look at a moving average cross on a 60 minute chart. Use a 5 period and a 15 period. You can do that at any number of charting sites. You will see that the 5 period is above the 15 period indicating the 60 minute trend is UP...in addition both the 5 & 15 MA are rising.Because of this...you'll need to hedge the 60 calls. Do that by purchasing 100 shares of stock to cover the 1 written call. This will hedge your loss to -$200 (approx). If FAS rises to 66 and the 5/15 MA are still moving up with the 5 above the 15...you'll need to hedge those calls with another 100 shares of stock.Now in the next few days - week...if the 5/15 MA on a 60 minute chart rolls over...to where the 5MA is below the 15 MA...and the 5MA stays beneath the 15MA for at least 3 bars (3 hours)...sell the hedged stock...or if you want to just take the $-200 loss that is your worst case scenario. Over-trading can lead to larger losses.This is the kind of situation where you have to be VERY careful and be a diligent manager of the position. You need to know EXACTLY what you are going to do...and a process for when you are going to do it.You know I'm a big fan of writing puts on stock you want to own...the reason is in the worst case scenario you wind up owning stock that you want at a cost basis lower than the original entry. Naked calls is not a strategy I'd ever recommend.#1 trading rule= Never let a winner turn to into a loser.#2 trading rule= Never let a small loser turn into a large loser.Edit: So we're 15 minutes into the trading session on Tuesday morning. FAS is just below $61. It is looking very possible that FAS will have a 5/15 MA cross today. This gives you a choice. You can say to yourself "this was a stupid trade, and if I can I'll get out of this mess at no loss I'll take it." If so you buy 100 shares at $60.50...to sell them near the close on expiration day for a very minimal loss. OR you get greedy and hope that it goes under 60 and stays there. I personally think these 3x funds are very dangerous...I'd take my medicine and run from this position. Good luck with it.
 
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siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Ugg! Ok...x how many contracts
Click to expand...
Nothing major, just 1 each. I play these pretty small.
Click to expand...
Ok...that's not a disaster.You'll need to do a couple of things.First of all you need some way to determine the short term trend of this thing. Simplest thing I can think of that would work for you is to look at a moving average cross on a 60 minute chart. Use a 5 period and a 15 period. You can do that at any number of charting sites. You will see that the 5 period is above the 15 period indicating the 60 minute trend is UP...in addition both the 5 & 15 MA are rising.Because of this...you'll need to hedge the 60 calls. Do that by purchasing 100 shares of stock to cover the 1 written call. This will hedge your loss to -$200 (approx). If FAS rises to 66 and the 5/15 MA are still moving up with the 5 above the 15...you'll need to hedge those calls with another 100 shares of stock.Now in the next few days - week...if the 5/15 MA on a 60 minute chart rolls over...to where the 5MA is below the 15 MA...and the 5MA stays beneath the 15MA for at least 3 bars (3 hours)...sell the hedged stock...or if you want to just take the $-200 loss that is your worst case scenario. Over-trading can lead to larger losses.This is the kind of situation where you have to be VERY careful and be a diligent manager of the position. You need to know EXACTLY what you are going to do...and a process for when you are going to do it.You know I'm a big fan of writing puts on stock you want to own...the reason is in the worst case scenario you wind up owning stock that you want at a cost basis lower than the original entry. Naked calls is not a strategy I'd ever recommend.#1 trading rule= Never let a winner turn to into a loser.#2 trading rule= Never let a small loser turn into a large loser.Edit: So we're 15 minutes into the trading session on Tuesday morning. FAS is just below $61. It is looking very possible that FAS will have a 5/15 MA cross today. This gives you a choice. You can say to yourself "this was a stupid trade, and if I can I'll get out of this mess at no loss I'll take it." If so you buy 100 shares at $60.50...to sell them near the close on expiration day for a very minimal loss. OR you get greedy and hope that it goes under 60 and stays there. I personally think these 3x funds are very dangerous...I'd take my medicine and run from this position. Good luck with it.
Click to expand...
Quick follow up Siff, let's say FAS runs below 60. These things are obviously quite volatile and it could run down to 50 even by expiration day. Wouldn't I then be exposed to the loss on 100 shares even though I only got the premiums off writing the calls? I guess the strategy comes in that if it starts to fall, where to bail on the stock. Let me know if I'm reading that wrong.
 
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Ugg! Ok...x how many contracts
Click to expand...
Nothing major, just 1 each. I play these pretty small.
Click to expand...
Ok...that's not a disaster.You'll need to do a couple of things.

First of all you need some way to determine the short term trend of this thing. Simplest thing I can think of that would work for you is to look at a moving average cross on a 60 minute chart. Use a 5 period and a 15 period. You can do that at any number of charting sites. You will see that the 5 period is above the 15 period indicating the 60 minute trend is UP...in addition both the 5 & 15 MA are rising.

Because of this...you'll need to hedge the 60 calls. Do that by purchasing 100 shares of stock to cover the 1 written call. This will hedge your loss to -$200 (approx). If FAS rises to 66 and the 5/15 MA are still moving up with the 5 above the 15...you'll need to hedge those calls with another 100 shares of stock.

Now in the next few days - week...if the 5/15 MA on a 60 minute chart rolls over...to where the 5MA is below the 15 MA...and the 5MA stays beneath the 15MA for at least 3 bars (3 hours)...sell the hedged stock...or if you want to just take the $-200 loss that is your worst case scenario. Over-trading can lead to larger losses.

This is the kind of situation where you have to be VERY careful and be a diligent manager of the position. You need to know EXACTLY what you are going to do...and a process for when you are going to do it.

You know I'm a big fan of writing puts on stock you want to own...the reason is in the worst case scenario you wind up owning stock that you want at a cost basis lower than the original entry. Naked calls is not a strategy I'd ever recommend.

#1 trading rule= Never let a winner turn to into a loser.

#2 trading rule= Never let a small loser turn into a large loser.

Edit: So we're 15 minutes into the trading session on Tuesday morning. FAS is just below $61. It is looking very possible that FAS will have a 5/15 MA cross today. This gives you a choice. You can say to yourself "this was a stupid trade, and if I can I'll get out of this mess at no loss I'll take it." If so you buy 100 shares at $60.50...to sell them near the close on expiration day for a very minimal loss. OR you get greedy and hope that it goes under 60 and stays there. I personally think these 3x funds are very dangerous...I'd take my medicine and run from this position. Good luck with it.
Click to expand...
Quick follow up Siff, let's say FAS runs below 60. These things are obviously quite volatile and it could run down to 50 even by expiration day. Wouldn't I then be exposed to the loss on 100 shares even though I only got the premiums off writing the calls? I guess the strategy comes in that if it starts to fall, where to bail on the stock. Let me know if I'm reading that wrong.
Click to expand...
It's early morning...sorry. I'm off my game. Yes you are exposed...and in a very bad way. Being honest here: you need to make a decision on how much you are willing to lose on this position. Right now...the loss is $450....with more than $300 being time premium which sucks! And that's just on the 60's...Your loss on the entire written position is around $700. Now if we stay right here (around $62) till expiration the loss is minimized significantly. But your loss begins to increase significantly if FAS moves above $66.

So before we go any further...let's ask the question that really needs to be asked: At this moment in time are you bullish or bearish on FAS?

Edit: Here is a current picture of your risk profile,,,the white line is as of today...the green line is on expiration.

http://picasaweb.google.com/steelhedge/Stt...118755408156978

 
Last edited by a moderator:
siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Mark Davis said:
siffoin said:
Ugg! Ok...x how many contracts
Click to expand...
Nothing major, just 1 each. I play these pretty small.
Click to expand...
Ok...that's not a disaster.You'll need to do a couple of things.

First of all you need some way to determine the short term trend of this thing. Simplest thing I can think of that would work for you is to look at a moving average cross on a 60 minute chart. Use a 5 period and a 15 period. You can do that at any number of charting sites. You will see that the 5 period is above the 15 period indicating the 60 minute trend is UP...in addition both the 5 & 15 MA are rising.

Because of this...you'll need to hedge the 60 calls. Do that by purchasing 100 shares of stock to cover the 1 written call. This will hedge your loss to -$200 (approx). If FAS rises to 66 and the 5/15 MA are still moving up with the 5 above the 15...you'll need to hedge those calls with another 100 shares of stock.

Now in the next few days - week...if the 5/15 MA on a 60 minute chart rolls over...to where the 5MA is below the 15 MA...and the 5MA stays beneath the 15MA for at least 3 bars (3 hours)...sell the hedged stock...or if you want to just take the $-200 loss that is your worst case scenario. Over-trading can lead to larger losses.

This is the kind of situation where you have to be VERY careful and be a diligent manager of the position. You need to know EXACTLY what you are going to do...and a process for when you are going to do it.

You know I'm a big fan of writing puts on stock you want to own...the reason is in the worst case scenario you wind up owning stock that you want at a cost basis lower than the original entry. Naked calls is not a strategy I'd ever recommend.

#1 trading rule= Never let a winner turn to into a loser.

#2 trading rule= Never let a small loser turn into a large loser.

Edit: So we're 15 minutes into the trading session on Tuesday morning. FAS is just below $61. It is looking very possible that FAS will have a 5/15 MA cross today. This gives you a choice. You can say to yourself "this was a stupid trade, and if I can I'll get out of this mess at no loss I'll take it." If so you buy 100 shares at $60.50...to sell them near the close on expiration day for a very minimal loss. OR you get greedy and hope that it goes under 60 and stays there. I personally think these 3x funds are very dangerous...I'd take my medicine and run from this position. Good luck with it.
Click to expand...
Quick follow up Siff, let's say FAS runs below 60. These things are obviously quite volatile and it could run down to 50 even by expiration day. Wouldn't I then be exposed to the loss on 100 shares even though I only got the premiums off writing the calls? I guess the strategy comes in that if it starts to fall, where to bail on the stock. Let me know if I'm reading that wrong.
Click to expand...
It's early morning...sorry. I'm off my game. Yes you are exposed...and in a very bad way. Being honest here: you need to make a decision on how much you are willing to lose on this position. Right now...the loss is $450....with more than $300 being time premium which sucks! And that's just on the 60's...Your loss on the entire written position is around $700. Now if we stay right here (around $62) till expiration the loss is minimized significantly. But your loss begins to increase significantly if FAS moves above $66.

So before we go any further...let's ask the question that really needs to be asked: At this moment in time are you bullish or bearish on FAS?

Edit: Here is a current picture of your risk profile,,,the white line is as of today...the green line is on expiration.

http://picasaweb.google.com/steelhedge/Stt...118755408156978
Click to expand...
Longer term I'm more bearish on it. Obviously short term though this has been rough. I don't know that longer term matters since it's an Aug expiration though at this stage.
 
CHK killing it and back near the highs of a couple months ago.

CENX killing it.

PRGN looking good. We need it to break past this 4.50 mark...

 
Otis said:
CHK killing it and back near the highs of a couple months ago. CENX killing it.PRGN looking good. We need it to break past this 4.50 mark...
Click to expand...
Just broke though to 4.53! Not a lot of selling action on level II untill 4.63, and better yet someone has a buy in for 25K shares at 4.45 so that shuold set in a solid floor.
 
kaa said:
Beee here. I gotta do a mea culpa on this.Looks like the market is rallying today. So I went back and reworked the model. I'm a computer programmer. Many years ago I developed a stock market model. I'll never make it public. Suffice it to say it describes the market in terms of it having a mass and acceleration, and thus a force is applied. So I wrote some software in C and javascript to do a lot of the number crunching. The top should have been last week, which didn't happen as we are rallying today. So I went over the data with a fine tooth comb and found that some recent prices were incorrect. Its not as big of a deal as it sounds. An occasional error like that has no bearing on the long term trend. Everything I have says the market is about to decline. After correcting the mistakes and recompiling the model, it actually says the top should be this tuesday or wednesday. So the error made the me call a top about 2-3 trading days early.The good news to me is the model wasn't wrong, it was just human error resulting in a slightly early call. If the model is off by 2-3 days, I figure that's incredibly good anyway.
Click to expand...
This is gold. The model isnt wrong. LOL.$4.57 for PRGN. AYE AYE AYE!!!!!!!!!
 
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