Oil just took a huge dump. David, where would you go to be long on oil right now. Any buy and hold opportunities for 2010 $70+ oil?
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Revo
Footballguy
I don't manage client money, I'm director of marketing for a corporate retirement plan administrator in NYC. But I've been licensed as a broker and investment adviser since 1992, and have been studying for the CFP for about a year now.It sucks about your mom. CFPs do the best job they can, but sure, just like doctors and other professionals, you can only hope they do the best thing. The last half of '08 was brutal for all securities -- all types of analysis could've been chucked out the window. Asset classes across the board got waxed, even if they were negatively correlated.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
Just another word of caution regarding FEED, and it might have more to do with cultural differences of a Chinese company operating in the American trading market (just my opinion). FEED's management has now madea couple of moves since October that have left share holders high and dry. First, they announced a stock buyback program, canceled it, and then turned around and offered new shares. This move cost approximately 33% of it's share price and market cap.As it turns out, this stock offering didn't have shareholder approval, so the NASDAQ sent them a little letter saying Agfeed has until June 12, 2009 to comply.David Dodds said:My spin on these threeJames Daulton said:RGN is one of the best run Dry Shippers. These companies have been way oversold. I think this is an excellent asset to hold longterm.
FEED is an interesting play. They are a feed producer who bought hogs and who now is involved in trying to bio-engineer bigger hogs. Personally I like this approach and could see them making huge noise longterm. But with that said, it still feels like most of the real value has already happened on this stock (It hovered near $1 a few months ago).
FREE is actually a low rung on the Dry Shipping companies. They have older ships and the smaller sized ships. They had a great earnings report and have been pushed higher as the sector moves higher. They have a low market cap so they could go higher, but I think as a long term investment I would choose other Shippers (PRGN, EXM, SBLK and NM are better long-term plays in my opinion).
Now, out of the blue, there is today's news, which causes a downturn in share price as well.
Things ain't always rosy in the business world, but these moves definitely are head scratchers.
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
*I* think the difference between CFPs and doctors or lawyers is that there's far less science in investing than in these other fields. Or put another way, the variance in markets is large enough that even the best will have poor runs, and the worst will have great runs. That's not the case for other professions (in general).
David Dodds
Administrator
I am pretty sure we will just see oil keep going up. Won't see the $140 oil again soon, but each year it will be more money. I actually think the best buying time for a longterm hold could be around December/January/February. I doubt our inventories improve anytime soon and once the summer driving season curbs, there will be a lot of pressure to lower oil prices. I also suspect that OPEC really wants to release more oil out in to the marketplace so they can generate dollars for their countries and oil exploration (which is mostly on hold).Just guessing but I think front end oil will reach as high as $65 through August and then start coming back down when demand wains. I suspect it will be back below $50 sometime in Dec/Jan/Feb timeframe for next year. Each year I think will travel this same sort of timeframe with oil getting a bit more expensive each cycle until it pops again with explosive growth because of demand issues. That could happen if China gets to 6-10% annual GDP growth.BassNBrew said:
David Dodds
Administrator
This is pretty typical of all the Dry Shippers when the NASDAQ is down signficantly. I still think this stock is undervalued (but that is based on what I think transpired the last few weeks here regarding dilution and company buyback). The good news is we are getting very close to earnings so will know soon. Hopefully most everyone here was able to sell on this big run up and may also see another push upward post-earnings.
David Dodds
Administrator
Year to Date Profit = $88,491
Today's Realized Gains/Losses = 32,496
PRGN = $31,170
OCNF = 1,326
Unrealized Gains/Losses:
10,000 PRGN @ 4.10
5,000 OCNF @ 1.46
5,000 FEED @ 3.92
My thoughts for the rest of this week and next. If the market continues to go south, I am looking to buy more into the different Dry Shippers. I expect the month of May to be good to them and like that the BDI has rebounded nicely.
I will probably turn FEED for a small gain soon as I actually think most of the big money has been made in this stock. The share dilution came out of nowhere and seemed unnecessary. I am a little worried that this company does get themselves in trouble with NASDAQ as they don't seem to follow normal rules.
If OCNF drops a lot lower, I am looking to add more shares. This seems like an easy buy and hold situation just based on their ship inventory. I think I will assess where they are at each week until I get some big movement. I suspect their earnings report will be awful, but how much lower can their stock go? I guess we will find out soon.
This is a good holding position for me for PRGN. I reaped the big win and now really plan to just hold these shares through earnings. If the run up goes above $4.50 tomorrow though I will probably take the sure money.
Today's Realized Gains/Losses = 32,496
PRGN = $31,170
OCNF = 1,326
Unrealized Gains/Losses:
10,000 PRGN @ 4.10
5,000 OCNF @ 1.46
5,000 FEED @ 3.92
My thoughts for the rest of this week and next. If the market continues to go south, I am looking to buy more into the different Dry Shippers. I expect the month of May to be good to them and like that the BDI has rebounded nicely.
I will probably turn FEED for a small gain soon as I actually think most of the big money has been made in this stock. The share dilution came out of nowhere and seemed unnecessary. I am a little worried that this company does get themselves in trouble with NASDAQ as they don't seem to follow normal rules.
If OCNF drops a lot lower, I am looking to add more shares. This seems like an easy buy and hold situation just based on their ship inventory. I think I will assess where they are at each week until I get some big movement. I suspect their earnings report will be awful, but how much lower can their stock go? I guess we will find out soon.
This is a good holding position for me for PRGN. I reaped the big win and now really plan to just hold these shares through earnings. If the run up goes above $4.50 tomorrow though I will probably take the sure money.
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David Dodds
Administrator
This is what I LOVE about Paragon:
Volume:
7-May-09 - 2.37M
6-May-09 - 2.76M
5-May-09 - 1.75M
4-May-09 - 2.14M
1-May-09 - 1.64M
and I am going to keep repeating the broken record here. I think a lot of this volume was share dilution and company buyback. If they did this right (and as a great managed company I am betting they clearly did), their balance sheet is going to show lots of cash and lots of their own stock. Since they already have 2009 fully chartered, isn't this a great company to have more access to money so they can expand their fleet? I don't hold things long very often and probably won't here either, but this company is positioning itself (if my hunches are correct) to be a bigger player in this sector very soon. Bring on the earnings. I see little downside at the price I own these shares at.
Volume:
7-May-09 - 2.37M
6-May-09 - 2.76M
5-May-09 - 1.75M
4-May-09 - 2.14M
1-May-09 - 1.64M
and I am going to keep repeating the broken record here. I think a lot of this volume was share dilution and company buyback. If they did this right (and as a great managed company I am betting they clearly did), their balance sheet is going to show lots of cash and lots of their own stock. Since they already have 2009 fully chartered, isn't this a great company to have more access to money so they can expand their fleet? I don't hold things long very often and probably won't here either, but this company is positioning itself (if my hunches are correct) to be a bigger player in this sector very soon. Bring on the earnings. I see little downside at the price I own these shares at.
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David Dodds
Administrator
How Paragon compares to the rest of the sector:
Code:
Symbol DWT Mkt Cap P/E PRGN.......765K......112M.....1.62 EXM........3.9M......658M.....losses for year DRYS.......4.0M.....1.54B.....losses for year GNK.......2.39M......661M.....6.90 DSX.........2.0M.....1.23B.....5.49 EGLE......1.18M......359M.....5.83 NM..........5.1M......435M.....4.19 TBSI........1.4M......279M.....1.42 (huge losses in 1st qtr) OCNF.......1.2M........27M.....0.64 (huge losses in 4th quarter) FREE........268K........37M.....2.00 ESEA........739K......173M.....7.29 SBLK........1.1M.......230M....1.70 SB...........888K.......338M....2.84
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None_More_Black
Footballguy
What's your opinion on SBLK David? I own a chunk and they seem to have their debt under control and have almost all their ships chartered for 2009. They are a new company and I think they are being penalized for that.
David Dodds
Administrator
The P/E numbers for PRGN and SBLK don't represent how successful they are in my opinion. They both are managing decent sized fleets and doing it very profitably. At some point (after multiple successful earnings), I think both of these companies are in the best position to gain in the marketplace. This is also why I pleased that Paragon is raising money, because for me at least they have shown me that they know how to run a lean company. It's worth noting that both Paragon and SBLK primarily buy used ships to add to their fleet. I think that is a lot better practice than making huge purchases with new ships (think buying brand new cars vs buying one that is 2-3 years old).
David Dodds
Administrator
Love this company and think it's very well managed. It's way undervalued at current costs (even after it's big run up this year)
David Dodds
Administrator
Another thing I LOVE about Paragon is they look to be doing their fleet expansion NOW when the market is just starting to recover. So they have never had to lock down a lot of charters at really low prices because they just had 12 ships this year. So if they add 3-5 used ships and they come online next year (when BDI has rebounded), they essentially timed fleet expansion perfectly never really feeling the pinch of the recession (except in their stock price).
Once Paragon holds above 5.0, the institutional investors will get in as that's their requirement to buy on margin. I know we just saw resistance leading up to 5.0, but I think it's coming in the near future (possibly when earnings get released). And once past 5, I think this thing sails to 6 easily with the increase in institutional money.
Screw it. I am holding at 4.10 through earnings and may look to buy more tomorrow if it stays there. I am convinced this Dry Shipper still has some climbing to do.
Once Paragon holds above 5.0, the institutional investors will get in as that's their requirement to buy on margin. I know we just saw resistance leading up to 5.0, but I think it's coming in the near future (possibly when earnings get released). And once past 5, I think this thing sails to 6 easily with the increase in institutional money.
Screw it. I am holding at 4.10 through earnings and may look to buy more tomorrow if it stays there. I am convinced this Dry Shipper still has some climbing to do.
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Otis
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I mostly agree with this being the cycle for oil prices and buying in the winter selling in the summer and buying back in the winter seems like a pretty solid strat if your willing to hold that long.I did scoop some shares of PBT that I am still holding back in February. With confirmation of the price move in April I doubled my position in PBT. As the prices go up so does the dividend (pays monthly). As long as the dividend get back to $.1 that is 10% per share. It last paid $.034 per share. But that is based on Feb oil prices. The dividend will go back up now. This one is also nice as it goes up leading into the dividend ex date every month giving you the opportunity to exit the position for a profit if you want to or just stay with it for the dividend. You can also enter this one at a discount after the div ex date as it ushualy sells off a bit following the div.This is a defensive stock with good upside when/if the economy recovers. It trades mostly based on it's dividend which is a % of the companies total profits which is mostly tied to the price of oil.
David Dodds
Administrator
I will try and emailing them tonight and will post what I find. I am also very curious as to this date.
The Ref
Footballguy
You own so many shares they will send a ship to your house in the morning with the answer if you called.Thanks
Maybe we should nominate DD for the BOD.
David Dodds
Administrator
This is what I sent them:
Can you tell me when 1st Qtr earnings will be released?
My friends and I own just under 50,000 shares of PRGN stock and are curious to when earnings and conference call will take place.
Sincerely,
David Dodds
Can you tell me when 1st Qtr earnings will be released?
My friends and I own just under 50,000 shares of PRGN stock and are curious to when earnings and conference call will take place.
Sincerely,
David Dodds
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analog_hiss
Footballguy
fixed
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Yes, look at you and your Gmail account.
Otis
Footballguy
Otis
Footballguy
I would say no way. A month from now, this stock will be higher. Just don't look at it until the end of next week.
David Dodds
Administrator
I think it's still headed up. It could rebound strongly at earnings or shortly afterwards. I am buying more if it is less than $4.20 on Friday.
The Ref
Footballguy
Nope - whats the pre market action looking like?
David Dodds
Administrator
BDI Up Slightly:
Baltic Supramax 1,569 (+4.81%)
Baltic Handysize 747 (+1.77%)
Baltic Dry 2,214 (+0.91%)
Baltic Capesize 2,963 (-2.72%)
Baltic Panamax 2,144 (+2.88%)
Baltic Supramax 1,569 (+4.81%)
Baltic Handysize 747 (+1.77%)
Baltic Dry 2,214 (+0.91%)
Baltic Capesize 2,963 (-2.72%)
Baltic Panamax 2,144 (+2.88%)
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David Dodds
Administrator
added 5,000 more OCNF at 1.36
David Dodds
Administrator
DRYS dilutes again..lol
* Plans at-the-market offering
* Third at-the-market offering since November
* Shares down 6 pct in premarket trade
May 8 (Reuters) - Greek dry bulk carrier DryShips Inc (DRYS.O) said it would offer common stock, its third such offering since November, and hopes to raise up to $475 million in an at-the-market offering.
Shares of the company were trading down 6 percent at $9.48 in premarket trade.
DryShips, which had earlier raised $500 million in a similar offering announced in January, disclosed its latest offering in a filing with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
* Plans at-the-market offering
* Third at-the-market offering since November
* Shares down 6 pct in premarket trade
May 8 (Reuters) - Greek dry bulk carrier DryShips Inc (DRYS.O) said it would offer common stock, its third such offering since November, and hopes to raise up to $475 million in an at-the-market offering.
Shares of the company were trading down 6 percent at $9.48 in premarket trade.
DryShips, which had earlier raised $500 million in a similar offering announced in January, disclosed its latest offering in a filing with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
ODoyleRules
Footballguy
ilrallymonkey:OIL and VLO doing well today.
It took me awhile, but I finally put some skin in the FFA stock picking contest. My pick, MDR, has been doing great. I got in last week at 16 and it's already blown past 18.
Of course, FEED is creaming everything else in that contest.
David Dodds
Administrator
Added 5,000 more PRGN at 4.11
David Dodds
Administrator
Today looks like the day to load up on the Dry Shippers if you guys want in.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Crap. About 1/3 of my portfolio is in DRYS, the other 2/3 in PRGN.
Time to hold.
Time to hold.
FavreCo
Footballguy
Exactly why I hate investing in individual stocks. Some people already knew this was coming and sold to Joe retail who gets to hold the bag. Not in it but this is a classic example.
Otis
Footballguy
Whole sector is getting beat up, folks are probably also tentative about earnings, and after this sector has been bought like crazy in recent weeks, we'll probably see a selloff and typical Friday afternoon profit taking. Shut down your browsers and F5s today, gang, because it's not a sell day. Wait until next week to start looking again.
-Oats
-Oats
playin4beer
Footballguy
As an owner of 2700 shares of OCNF at $1.70....I think i'll take your advice...
