Yeah, should have held out on selling that 1st 3rd for another 30 minutes. Back to the $4.40's now. Tempted to sell the 6,000 I have and try to get back in lower, but I believe I will hold these.
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Cromedog
Footballguy
Feed now 4.55....exactly why I held 500. Buckna, where are you letting the rest go?
I'm not sure. I fully expected to pick back up another 3,000 back at around $4.00 to sell again later. The 6,000 shares I have are more a longer term investment (well at least, not a day trading position) as I fully expect that this stock could easily head north to the $7 range eventually. Figured I would trade the swings here and there in the meantime as the trend seems to definitely be up.And no, I did not know earnings were released this morning, but I've been out of the country for the last 10 days until late last night.
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Cromedog
Footballguy
Yes
David Dodds
Administrator
Am I the only one holding OCNF? It's a rocketship right now.
Otis
Footballguy
Unreal. God you nailed this too.
definitely should have spread myself out a little, that was my mistakeYeah, what happened there? Up $0.20 ~ 15% in like a minute flat.
David Dodds
Administrator
Well I sold FEED WAY too early today...Congrats to everyone that made a killing on this though. I stupidly did not know when earnings were and did not even read any news when I dumped it. Really dumb trading.
Although this company could continue to gain all year, I think the big gains have already been priced into this stock. I doubt I buy it anymore this year.
Although this company could continue to gain all year, I think the big gains have already been priced into this stock. I doubt I buy it anymore this year.
playin4beer
Footballguy
I have 2800 shares... was too much of a tightwad to sell at a loss...Of course i'm into it for $1.70 a share, so i'm not making any money yet, but i'm losing a WHOLE lot less...
David Dodds
Administrator
Conspiracy Theory #3 (OCNF) - Since YA Global started adding shares, they have added 58.3 Million shares at an average cost of just less than $1.57. As recently as a few days ago, they added 12 million shares at $1.84. YA Global has authority to add another $56.7 Million of stock. I think it's clear why earnings have been delayed. The goal is to complete the full dilution before earnings are posted.
OCNF shareholders include members of Economou's family, the founder and majority stakeholder of DRYS.
This company owns a lot of ships (1.2 DWT) and I suspect that something is afoot here regarding the sale of this companies assets to another Dry Shipper. And this could be exactly the reason DRYS went back to the well to get money.
So my conspiracy goes like this:
1. DRYS realizes that the whole sector is beaten down badly. They want to add to their FLEET during this time.
2. OCNF is particularly vulnerable. A meeting is arranged with YA Global to have them buy TONS of additional stock valuing this company closer to what their ships are worth.
3. DRYS raises additional money after a good earnings report.
4. DRYS buys the new OCNF
Before OCNF started diluting shares, their market cap was about $70M. After dilution, this thing will be at least twice that. There is a side of me that thinks DSX may also jump in this game with an offer too (based on them raising money that they did not appear to need).
Additionally FREE, PRGN, and SBLK could all be in play with the dollars raised in these dilutions. Hang on folks. This sector is just get going here.
OCNF shareholders include members of Economou's family, the founder and majority stakeholder of DRYS.
This company owns a lot of ships (1.2 DWT) and I suspect that something is afoot here regarding the sale of this companies assets to another Dry Shipper. And this could be exactly the reason DRYS went back to the well to get money.
So my conspiracy goes like this:
1. DRYS realizes that the whole sector is beaten down badly. They want to add to their FLEET during this time.
2. OCNF is particularly vulnerable. A meeting is arranged with YA Global to have them buy TONS of additional stock valuing this company closer to what their ships are worth.
3. DRYS raises additional money after a good earnings report.
4. DRYS buys the new OCNF
Before OCNF started diluting shares, their market cap was about $70M. After dilution, this thing will be at least twice that. There is a side of me that thinks DSX may also jump in this game with an offer too (based on them raising money that they did not appear to need).
Additionally FREE, PRGN, and SBLK could all be in play with the dollars raised in these dilutions. Hang on folks. This sector is just get going here.
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
Too funny. Maybe it was irrational exuberance? I got in this AM at $1.20 and it's already up to $1.50. Amazing. Times like this I wish I had more cash.The Ref said:Take a look at the max historical chart for CTIC - from $2,940 to <$1.What did this company do back in 2001? Turn water into wine?NajehHejan said:FavreCo, thanks for posting this. Since I read this, I've been searching for the next potential VNDA. I've narrowed my search down to two candidates - CTIC and GNTA. I'll be buying both on Monday AM. If either one hits, I'll buy you a #4 Vikings jersey and mail it to you. I could just as easily lose all my money, but you know what they say - no risk, no reward. GLTA.VNDA popped a wee bit after hours with FDA approval of a schizophrenia drug.Only up 824%.That would be like hitting the lotto.
Random
Footballguy
DD-Which of the dry shippers is highest on your "buy" list at current prices?
David Dodds
Administrator
I like them in this order right now:1. OCNF - Take over play is in place I think.2. PRGN - great company, should be $5.00+, possible take over play3. SBLK - great company - possible take over play
KGB
Footballguy
Thought I was screwed getting into VNDA @10. Glad I held now. Lots of shares being bought.
I expect some fluctuation but man I didn't expect it to get back to 10 so quickly.
My other play from the other day RIV @ 2.00 is looking good too.
ACLS at .49 is getting huge volume too. Might be jumping into it
I expect some fluctuation but man I didn't expect it to get back to 10 so quickly.
My other play from the other day RIV @ 2.00 is looking good too.
ACLS at .49 is getting huge volume too. Might be jumping into it
None_More_Black
Footballguy
Sold a few DSX May 15 puts for .40 today.
David Dodds
Administrator
How exactly do you make this type of transaction? And to make sure I even know what this means...I am guessing it means you are paying 26 cents to have an option of buying this stock at 5.00 by the end of June? and of course you can trade the contract too should it go up?Is there volume enough for me to buy 10,000 contracts like this?
McBokonon
Footballguy
To the first part, yes. It didn't look like this stock had that kind of volume, though.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
a contract is 100 shares. Not sure you want to bet this big.
David Dodds
Administrator
I am not buying because I am not in love with this company, but I think DRYS at 6.68 here is very close to (or is) the bottom. It could vault a lot higher in my opinion.
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Topes
Footballguy
Great. Just great. There goes what's left of the economy. Thanks, David. 
Yes, 1 contract is for an option 100 shares so if you buy at $0.26 it's $26 per option. Volume can be thin, according to my screen there are only 415 contracts currently outstanding on the 5 calls for PRGN. Compare this with say GE which has 40K call options outstanding on the 15 strike price and 16K in volume today alone.
Cavalier
Footballguy
I sold my shares of FITB to get into PRGN. I just looked at FITB. Went from just under 5 to almost 9. I can mess up a wet dream. Nothing I do in the market works. Also got out of OIL to get even more into PRGN at a loss now. I need to pull a Constanza and just do the opposite. Vent over.
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KGB
Footballguy
Don't worry cav. Tonight I'm going to try and post all my my buys and sells over the month. (My first month trading). Including where the stocks are currently at. It will make u feel better.
i'm in for a bit more then just short term but rough week for Paragon.
My options are worth 1/2 of what i bought them at and down a bunch on the shares as well.
Things change so quickly in this market it could be at $5 in a couple weeks but sucks to be down so much so early.
My options are worth 1/2 of what i bought them at and down a bunch on the shares as well.
Things change so quickly in this market it could be at $5 in a couple weeks but sucks to be down so much so early.
David Dodds
Administrator
I am officially a wuss. I sold all my OCNF at 1.60 for a profit of nearly 20 cents a share. Profit = 3930 - 24 = $3906
Looking to buy back OCNF on any upcoming dip within the next few days. Likely buying PRGN and SBLK options to get deeper in there
Looking to buy back OCNF on any upcoming dip within the next few days. Likely buying PRGN and SBLK options to get deeper in there
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David Dodds
Administrator
Year to Date Profit = $92,893
Today's Realized Gains/Losses = +4314
FEED = $408
OCNF = +3906
Unrealized Gains/Losses:
20,000 PRGN @ 4.05
I have had so many opportunities to sell PRGN at a nice gain and now am officially upside down with these shares (I did profit nicely on the previously purchased shares). I think my strategy here is to start loading up on June $5.00 PRGN calls (trading at less than 0.20) instead of locking in a lot more money with the straight stock play. I still sense a giant market correction could be coming and would like to be near 100% cash to take advantage of that should it hit.
I definitely am looking to get back into OCNF on any dip at all as I believe this stock is clearly involved in some sort of take over strategy within the industry.
Today's Realized Gains/Losses = +4314
FEED = $408
OCNF = +3906
Unrealized Gains/Losses:
20,000 PRGN @ 4.05
I have had so many opportunities to sell PRGN at a nice gain and now am officially upside down with these shares (I did profit nicely on the previously purchased shares). I think my strategy here is to start loading up on June $5.00 PRGN calls (trading at less than 0.20) instead of locking in a lot more money with the straight stock play. I still sense a giant market correction could be coming and would like to be near 100% cash to take advantage of that should it hit.
I definitely am looking to get back into OCNF on any dip at all as I believe this stock is clearly involved in some sort of take over strategy within the industry.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Latest SEC Filing:
Pursuant to this prospectus supplement, the accompanying prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus, we are offering 13,500,000 common shares to YA Global Master SPV Ltd., or YA Global, at a price of approximately $1.37 per share.
This now puts these guys at 71.8 million shares at at average cost of $1.53 per share. Assuming they expect to make at least 10% here in this deal, I think $1.68 is approximately the low point valuation for OCNF. It is currently trading at $1.60. I am looking to buy into this on the dips.
Pursuant to this prospectus supplement, the accompanying prospectus supplement and the accompanying prospectus, we are offering 13,500,000 common shares to YA Global Master SPV Ltd., or YA Global, at a price of approximately $1.37 per share.
This now puts these guys at 71.8 million shares at at average cost of $1.53 per share. Assuming they expect to make at least 10% here in this deal, I think $1.68 is approximately the low point valuation for OCNF. It is currently trading at $1.60. I am looking to buy into this on the dips.
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analog_hiss
Footballguy
UPdating from Friday - sold 1000 OCNF@ 1.55 for profit $200
sold 500 JASO @ 4.15 for profit $325
Year to Date Profit = $2,290
Bought 1500 OCNF today @ 1.50
Still holding:
1000 OCNF@ 1.50 (1.60)
700 SAY @ 1.88 (1.85)
1000 GPRE @ 2.00 (2.54)
3000 SPSN @ 0.19 (0.1270)
10000 NEOM @ 0.027 (.020)
Great to see GPRE triple their average volume with slightly more level trading prices (this puppy can jump 5 cents on one trade) before earnings release this week. This will be the first full quarter earnings reports since a reverse merger last fall...hoping for a positive report.
SAY keeps hanging around a ten cent range...hopefull tings go better in a month or so.
SPSN was delisted from the NASDAQ, and I pulled my stop,loss the day before delisting...I just can't see the company go belly up, but it just might. New stop loss set a 0.085 for now.
NEOM, the complete pipe dream, just sitting there like a good $270 stock purchase. ONe day maybe...
Looking to enter a couple of positions tomorrow, after I do some more homework tonight.
sold 500 JASO @ 4.15 for profit $325
Year to Date Profit = $2,290
Bought 1500 OCNF today @ 1.50
Still holding:
1000 OCNF@ 1.50 (1.60)
700 SAY @ 1.88 (1.85)
1000 GPRE @ 2.00 (2.54)
3000 SPSN @ 0.19 (0.1270)
10000 NEOM @ 0.027 (.020)
Great to see GPRE triple their average volume with slightly more level trading prices (this puppy can jump 5 cents on one trade) before earnings release this week. This will be the first full quarter earnings reports since a reverse merger last fall...hoping for a positive report.
SAY keeps hanging around a ten cent range...hopefull tings go better in a month or so.
SPSN was delisted from the NASDAQ, and I pulled my stop,loss the day before delisting...I just can't see the company go belly up, but it just might. New stop loss set a 0.085 for now.
NEOM, the complete pipe dream, just sitting there like a good $270 stock purchase. ONe day maybe...
Looking to enter a couple of positions tomorrow, after I do some more homework tonight.
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analog_hiss
Footballguy
Are these 13.5 million shares in your calculation? Just stumbled upon this supplement so not sure if it's old news...maybe you posted it and I missed it?
David Dodds
Administrator
3 posts up, I redid the calculation. YA Global is now in for $1.53 so this isn't a big steal anymore (I liked it a lot better when I was dding shares at $1.40 and they were in for $1.56 a share). But now the price is $1.60 and they are in for $1.53. I will continue to monitor this and may jump back in if it drops a bit from this price.
Harris
Footballguy
hope ur right since i'm in with 750 @ avg. 4.65
I'm in at around that but unfortunately for 5k shares plus a ton of dec $5 call options which are worth just a little over 1/2 of what i paid.Just wanted to make you feel better.
FavreCo
Footballguy
I'll go with a large #4.Too funny. Maybe it was irrational exuberance? I got in this AM at $1.20 and it's already up to $1.50. Amazing. Times like this I wish I had more cash.The Ref said:Take a look at the max historical chart for CTIC - from $2,940 to <$1.What did this company do back in 2001? Turn water into wine?NajehHejan said:FavreCo, thanks for posting this. Since I read this, I've been searching for the next potential VNDA. I've narrowed my search down to two candidates - CTIC and GNTA. I'll be buying both on Monday AM. If either one hits, I'll buy you a #4 Vikings jersey and mail it to you. I could just as easily lose all my money, but you know what they say - no risk, no reward. GLTA.VNDA popped a wee bit after hours with FDA approval of a schizophrenia drug.Only up 824%.That would be like hitting the lotto.
FavreCo
Footballguy
Teach that ##### a lesson.Sold 200 FAZ for a profit of $4 after commissions. FAZ is my #####!!!
Over the next week i will be putting all my savings into PRGN.
33k more shares to be added this week on top of the 5k i already have and dec $5 calls i have.
I just hope Dodds isn't wrong on this one. In no way would i blame him but his analysis seems solid and i'm all in on his advise.
My life and family's future is now on the line.
33k more shares to be added this week on top of the 5k i already have and dec $5 calls i have.
I just hope Dodds isn't wrong on this one. In no way would i blame him but his analysis seems solid and i'm all in on his advise.
My life and family's future is now on the line.
Not cool pinning everything on one company/stock, no matter how "sure" you are of it. God forbid you find out tomorrow that they were cooking the books or something as equally tragic.I should have clarified, all my savings are on the line. I still have money coming in and could put my kids through college no matter what happens to paragon, but my quality of life is the thing at risk.If Paragon goes under then i will have to live in a different way and struggle with my mortgage and bills, but still likely make it through unless i lose my job. If that happens all bets are off.Not cool pinning everything on one company/stock, no matter how "sure" you are of it. God forbid you find out tomorrow that they were cooking the books or something as equally tragic.
David Dodds
Administrator
My advice is that people should not bet their life savings on anything. I like this company a lot, but let's be real here. This sector has experienced a lot of gains already (from the lows of March) and also has seen a big push back with all the dilution stuff. Earnings are due soon and those could also underwhelm the investment world. I do think this thing could take off, but a bad earnings report could also leave it stagnating for another 3 months. I also think the market is getting a bit skittish and we could wake up soon and see the whole market down 5-8%. And on days like these, the Dry Shippers get hit the hardest because they are closely tied to an economic recovery. I would also suggest you spread your money over a few stocks and buy in slower (ie take a position and cost average down if need be). You also can likely take a less risky position on Paragon by just buying June $5.00 calls (which are going for around 20 cents each). The BDI topped out in late May/Mid June last year so if this stock hits $5, I think this is the most likely time it will do that. And if it even gets close, you would be able to move the options for more. And because institutions can get in deeper once it crosses the $5 threshold, I think the stock will likely just surge past $5 on it's way to 6 (Plus the stock already hit 6 this year). Good luck here. I hope you show a little more caution than your post here though. I don't want to be the person who ruined your finances if things go south. And investing in the Dry Shippers can be a wild ride (as we have all witnessed here)
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Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
I knew we'd see people doing this after Dodds had a good run.Please, please, please rethink your stance here.I should have clarified, all my savings are on the line. I still have money coming in and could put my kids through college no matter what happens to paragon, but my quality of life is the thing at risk.If Paragon goes under then i will have to live in a different way and struggle with my mortgage and bills, but still likely make it through unless i lose my job. If that happens all bets are off.
bradyfan
Footballguy
I was going to check with spidey to help you out. Then I thought better of it. You don't deserve it.I should have clarified, all my savings are on the line. I still have money coming in and could put my kids through college no matter what happens to paragon, but my quality of life is the thing at risk.If Paragon goes under then i will have to live in a different way and struggle with my mortgage and bills, but still likely make it through unless i lose my job. If that happens all bets are off.
i hear ya and like i said this is all my decision, in no way would i ever say it was someone else's fault if things go south.If i can get all in for the other 33k shares at what they are now my average buy in would be 3.91. So 3.91 on 38k shares.I bought 500 option contracts - dec $5 calls at $1.15, so if the stock hits 4.30 i can take a loss on those (they would sell for about .85 - .95 cents at that price which would be a 10k loss), but sell my 38k shares for enough of a profit and end up making over 5k.And i'm willing to wait until Dec, so i look at it as a 95% shot that the stock will hit 4.30 (my exit point) at some time until december.
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