Das Boot
Footballguy
Nice theory about DRYS buying OCNF, I like it.If DRYS buys OCNF, I'd expect DRYS share price to take the hit and OCNF share price to get the boost.
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
David Dodds
Administrator
Here is some of the stuff I am a little scared about. A lot of people that are smarter than me on this stuff are suggesting we are due for a pullback.
Day Trading Advantage talks about watching this thing
This talks about how much money is in the market and what we are seeing is a ton of money is in. And that almost always leads to a correction as the market requires new money to go higher. Personally if I can get out PRGN unscathed here (above 4.05), I very much might just do a lot of little plays so I am never too deep in case a correction happens.
Anyone else think a market pullback is near?
Day Trading Advantage talks about watching this thing
This talks about how much money is in the market and what we are seeing is a ton of money is in. And that almost always leads to a correction as the market requires new money to go higher. Personally if I can get out PRGN unscathed here (above 4.05), I very much might just do a lot of little plays so I am never too deep in case a correction happens.
Anyone else think a market pullback is near?
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Yes, which is why I'm still sitting on my FAZ.
David Dodds
Administrator
Yes OCNF would be the big winner here if it goes down like this. But I also think DRYS would go higher too as everyone would now see this as the biggest of the Greek Dry Shippers. DRYS now covers oil platforms and stuff too, which makes OCNF a perfect fit (they have some oil tankers). I clearly think something is going on here, but it's hard trusting either of these companies as a lot of manipulation has been in play with both of these companies. The only thing I am pretty certain of is that YA Global (who has bought a ton of OCNF at an average price of $1.53) won't lose money here. The fact that they bought 12 million shares at $1.78 just a few days ago also tells me this thing should see at least that in the near term. I banked my profit today, but will likely be back in this thing in the morning on any dip.
David Dodds
Administrator
i think an minor correction is coming but at the same time there is still a TON of money on the sidelines. Even the most aggressive professional traders don't have a large majority of their capital in the market.Plus the general public is still afraid, just look at everyone on this board who while they are ready to start investing again are still being VERY cautious.
The market moves before it's obvious. If there is truly any even minor recovery going on then by the end of 2009 we'll be at 10k on the dow at least.
i'm don't trade day to day, but even a 3 month holding is looked at as long term in the current market.
Otis
Footballguy
A lot of people way smarter than I have been banking on it. Seems to me we are due. The market has been a rocket ship, and it has to retrace at some point. Folks thought that would have happened already. Maybe we're seeing the beginning of it now. Or maybe we're still gonna fire straight up. Who knows at this point...
bradyfan
Footballguy
You mean Pickles?
David Dodds
Administrator
Cool Blog - Also Saying Stocks Overbought
Breadth Measures Hitting Historical Highs I'm seeing some breadth measures again hitting all-time extremes. Worden Bros. measures the % of stocks trading at least 1 and 2 standard deviations above their 40-day moving average. I mentioned the 1-standard deviation indicator (T2110) in the blog a couple of weeks ago. At the time it was hitting an all-time high of nearly 81%. Tonight it broke that record registering over 83%. The number of stocks closing 2-standard deviations above their 40-day ma (T2112) also hit a new extreme Monday - and in a big way. Before Monday this indicator had never reached 40%. Monday it spiked up to 52.14%. A chart with the complete history is below.
His view on this: This suggests the market is incredibly overbought. As I went over a couple of weeks ago, this doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see a sharp selloff. At such incredible levels, though I’d certainly be careful taking long positions. These overbought levels will be worked off at some point. A selloff is one way to accomplish that.
Breadth Measures Hitting Historical Highs I'm seeing some breadth measures again hitting all-time extremes. Worden Bros. measures the % of stocks trading at least 1 and 2 standard deviations above their 40-day moving average. I mentioned the 1-standard deviation indicator (T2110) in the blog a couple of weeks ago. At the time it was hitting an all-time high of nearly 81%. Tonight it broke that record registering over 83%. The number of stocks closing 2-standard deviations above their 40-day ma (T2112) also hit a new extreme Monday - and in a big way. Before Monday this indicator had never reached 40%. Monday it spiked up to 52.14%. A chart with the complete history is below.
His view on this: This suggests the market is incredibly overbought. As I went over a couple of weeks ago, this doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see a sharp selloff. At such incredible levels, though I’d certainly be careful taking long positions. These overbought levels will be worked off at some point. A selloff is one way to accomplish that.
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A couple of comments about this and your earlier posts...1. When was the market previously this oversold to allow it to be this over bought?
2. Don't want to turn this political, but the cash being pumped into this economy is staggering and has to have some impact.
3. PE on many of these stocks seems very low.
4. Although many people like myself have re-entered the market, many of us are still sitting on 50%+ cash positions most of the time. I suspect that I'll be to heavily weighted towards cash when this thing rebounds.
5. A 10% pullback from current levels is a burp compared to what we've experienced. Are you suggesting DOW 5000?
David Dodds
Administrator
David Dodds
Administrator
I think we will experience a 7-10% correction soon and then this thing will mostly go higher again. At some point though earnings have to be better (see my P/E post above). It's the reason I love the Dry Shippers so much. They are operating at very low P/Es compared to the rest of the market.
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I fart 7-10% corrections. Heck, I'll invest in FAS and we'll have a 7-10% in 4 hours for that matter.
David Dodds
Administrator
BDI Inching higher
Baltic Supramax 1,639 (+1.74%)
Baltic Handysize 772 (+1.98%)
Baltic Dry 2,253 (+1.72%)
Baltic Capesize 2,988 (+2.57%)
Baltic Panamax 2,158 (+0.51%)
Baltic Supramax 1,639 (+1.74%)
Baltic Handysize 772 (+1.98%)
Baltic Dry 2,253 (+1.72%)
Baltic Capesize 2,988 (+2.57%)
Baltic Panamax 2,158 (+0.51%)
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David Dodds
Administrator
Time to get onboard OCNF everyone. Down to 1.55. I got 10,000 shares at 1.56 on my market order.
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FavreCo
Footballguy
Which is why I tried FAZ the last 2 weeks. It is WAY overdue.
FavreCo
Footballguy
I jump in FAS and you can double that correction.
Harris
Footballguy
Alright, I'm in with ya on OCNF, 650 @ 1.55. Should plummet like a rock now that I'm involved.
David Dodds
Administrator
Repeating what I said yesterday...
YA Global has been buying OCNF like crazy. OCNF has delayed earnings waiting for the dilution to finish. So far they have purchased 71.8 Million shares (since 2/2) at an average cost of $1.53. The price just dipped to that same 1.53. I think it's a given that this company is going to make some profit and clearly as already seen earnings. They have $39M more worth of purchasing to do on the original $148M deal. I think there is a chance that this stock is a takeover target of DRYS
YA Global has been buying OCNF like crazy. OCNF has delayed earnings waiting for the dilution to finish. So far they have purchased 71.8 Million shares (since 2/2) at an average cost of $1.53. The price just dipped to that same 1.53. I think it's a given that this company is going to make some profit and clearly as already seen earnings. They have $39M more worth of purchasing to do on the original $148M deal. I think there is a chance that this stock is a takeover target of DRYS
Mose
Footballguy
Mose
Footballguy
hahaha, and just like that I bought OCNF @ $1.54.I'm such a sucker....
Sorry, wrong ticker. I've edited it.
David Dodds
Administrator
added 10,000 more OCNF at 1.54...giddy to get back in after selling all 20,000 shares at 1.60 to 1.61 yesterday. I am going to hold onto this through earnings (or until it gets to at least 1.70) because something is going on.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I am playing follow the leader here....
Do we have any ideas about earnings on OCNF / PRGN?
Do we have any ideas about earnings on OCNF / PRGN?
Mose
Footballguy
we are all assuming that they are this week, but last quarters were delayed for 2 months.....
David Dodds
Administrator
Lots of site work to do today. I just wanted to get my 20,000 OCNF shares back at close to 1.53. Thrilled to have them back at $1.55 especially since it popped in the pre-market before sliding. This feels very safe since YA Global has 71.8M shares at $1.53. I am assuming he expects at least 10% for his effort here which would put valuation at least at 1.68.
Mose
Footballguy
And then it plummets!
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Only because I bought another 1000 shares....
analog_hiss
Footballguy
Go to nasdaq.com, type in the ticker OCNF in the box for GET STOCK QUOTES and select rea time quote. Scroll down and click "Real Time SEC" in the left margin.You want to read the 424B2 reports. I believe Dodds has added up the shares to date for his total number.
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Mose
Footballguy
Thanks! great info you guys. I feel a lot better about my compulsive OCNF buy.
David Dodds
Administrator
Yes this is correct. Once YA Global started adding a ton of shares, I wanted to know their cost and was able to purchase before at $1.40 (when their average was $1.56). Unfotunately though I already banked that profit. This deal was very open ended as well when they announced it on 2/2. In other words they did not have to try and add all the shares before the next earnings report. But the fact that they have delayed earnings to make sure that this full dilution is done tells me that everyone knows this companies assets warrant a lot higher price. The number that makes me smile a lot is they added 12 Million shares at $1.84 just a few days ago. And when they first started adding shares the stock was as high as 2.93 (early Feb timeframe).
David Dodds
Administrator
I have just added a buy order to add 10,000 more shares at 1.49. I will also add another 10,000 at 1.45 although I really doubt it goes that low. Unless it pops today, I am going to set a sell at 1.65 or so for the opening tomorrow. Just like today, I think there is a strong chance this thing opens higher in the pre-market.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
buckle up.
David Dodds
Administrator
added 10,000 shares of OCNF at 1.49 and another 10,000 at 1.45. I now own 40,000 at an average price of 1.505. Upside down at the moment, but I feel good about this one. Wished I would have timed the big drop better (and hopefully it does not go much lower, because I don't plan on adding anymore). I will now sell at $1.66 which is about where it opened today.
5Rings
Lurker
Yes--a few people who do trade professionaly advised me to take my profits out of the market and watch it over the next month. They felt there would be a significant correction.
St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
You just bought OCNF today right? Unless you need the money to live on, why would you buy something today and sell it a few hours later for a loss? Everything does not always move upwards when we want it to.
David Dodds
Administrator
Nice. Probably headed higher too. I do think oil will stall much above $60/barrel though unless a major conflict hurts supply.
Harris
Footballguy
No I don't need the money to live on, but I am starting to feel like I got into this right at the end of a big upswing and now as many of you say, it could turn downward. I'm going to stick it out for a while, but a reason I would want to sell some and cut my losses would be to diversify some more also as I am mostly only in OCNF and PRGN.
Mose
Footballguy
I'm only in those 2 right now, but I'm not worried. I'll hold them for a month if need be. Bring on the earnings of each!
