My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (4 Viewers)

[BassNBrew]

Would someone explain the premise behind UCO to me? What is the downside to a buy and hold until summer?

Or at least point me to the proper spot in this thread where this has been discussed???Anyone???

Knock, knock???

I'll do my best but I'm just a gambler..Simply put, the price could go down. There is such a glut of oil right now that it has been in a relative tight trading range fro some time. Do a Google search on oil contango, that should help you out. It was discussed a lot in this thread towards the beggining.I'm with you though longer term. I think UCO & DXO are good buys.

What I don't get is how I can buy "oil" at a low price and hold it indefinately until it goes up.

 

[The Z Machine]

You're not buying oil as in buying the oil in barrels and holding it. There's an overhead cost associated with doing that. Instead these oil ETFs buy contracts for some months out, and then roll the price of the next contract again every month. If effect they are buying only the contracts from month to month, and they are never actually taking possession of said oil.

 

[None_More_Black]

You're not buying oil as in buying the oil in barrels and holding it. There's an overhead cost associated with doing that. Instead these oil ETFs buy contracts for some months out, and then roll the price of the next contract again every month. If effect they are buying only the contracts from month to month, and they are never actually taking possession of said oil.

That's why the ETF does such a poor job of tracking crude because they had to announce in advance what day they were going roll over their contracts. (so as not to take delivery) The traders knew they would have to buy so the etf was always buying at inflated one day prices. Apparantly they are rolling their contracts over a 4 day period instead of one to help mitigate this effect.

 

[BassNBrew]

You're not buying oil as in buying the oil in barrels and holding it. There's an overhead cost associated with doing that. Instead these oil ETFs buy contracts for some months out, and then roll the price of the next contract again every month. If effect they are buying only the contracts from month to month, and they are never actually taking possession of said oil.

Thanks Z.

 

[culdeus]

You're not buying oil as in buying the oil in barrels and holding it. There's an overhead cost associated with doing that. Instead these oil ETFs buy contracts for some months out, and then roll the price of the next contract again every month. If effect they are buying only the contracts from month to month, and they are never actually taking possession of said oil.

but it would be pretty cool if they just said #### it send it to my house on long island.

 

[RoarinSonoran]

LHUCKS tried a thread like this yesterday, but it apparently got canned. Too bad, he made $11.70 on the day. lol

And then he lost $11.80 on Friday.

 

[Buckna]

UCO up into the mid 8's today. If the ETF hadn't of lost 10~15% of its value rolling over futures contracts we'd be up in the teens somewhere.

 

[Mark Davis]

UCO up into the mid 8's today. If the ETF hadn't of lost 10~15% of its value rolling over futures contracts we'd be up in the teens somewhere.

Anyone have a feel for if DBO is any better? I'm holding DBO in my IRA and it seems to have performed better. I'm happy with the UCO rally so far though. If my covered calls in March hit at a strike of 9 I'll be happy to exit with a tiny profit and try to find a better vehicle for oil speculation.

 

[TheWalkmen]

Do any of you guys look for arbitrage opporunities? I think that would be quite interesting to discuss and follow. Perhaps in a different thread.

I saw this over at a forum at zecco.

"There is a great arbitrage oppoprtunity between Citigroup's Seriers AA Preferred Securities and Citigroups common stock. On Friday, Citigroup announced that holders of its Series AA Preferred Securities would be able to convert their preferred stock into Citigroup common stock at exchange price based upon $3.25 premium to market. Citigroup just announced the details of the premium to market on form 8-K: Holders of Citigroup Series AA Preferred (TICKER: C-PP) will be able to exchange their preferred shares for approximately 7.307 shares of Citigroup common stock. Citigroups's common stock trades for approxiamtely $1.23; therefore, the preferreds have a value of approximately $8.979. The preferreds currently trade for $8.10. Therefore, you can lock in approximately $0.879/share in arbitrage profit by longing 1 Series AA Preferred and shorting 7.307 shares of Citigroup common stock (TICKER: C). You will have to execute this trade through a broker that allows shorting on stocks that trade below $5. Unfortunately, Zecco does not all you to do this."

 

[The Z Machine]

Finally back into the green on my OIL holdings. I'm still gonna wait for this to rise higher, as I see it pushing above $20 (at $18.83 now) in the next month at some point.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

In 4000 DXO at $2.53, I can't help myself.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

In 4000 DXO at $2.53, I can't help myself.

####

 

[Keerock]

Out 4K DXO at $2.53

ETA: j/k Bob

 

[St. Louis Bob]

Out 4K DXO at $2.53ETA: j/k Bob

Just 20 minutes more...dang

 

[David Dodds]

Sold 1,000 PRGN @ 3.500 - Profit = $480 - $12 commissions

 

[Chaos Commish]

Sold 1,000 PRGN @ 3.500 - Profit = $480 - $12 commissions

Thought you were holding those until May? I think you're right about this sector, but I'm patient.

 

[David Dodds]

Sold 1,000 PRGN @ 3.500 - Profit = $480 - $12 commissions

Thought you were holding those until May? I think you're right about this sector, but I'm patient.

I generally am holding a lot of this sector until May, but plan to trade up and down with the swings. I like SBLK, EXM and NM best in this sector.

 

[LHUCKS]

Got into BP, MRO and SLV last thursday...nice to see BP and MRO edge higher. A lot of analysts are expecting a "spring rally" for oil plays...I think they're right. I like BP more than a DXO, for example, because of the dividends...which are decent.

 

[RoarinSonoran]

Got into BP, MRO and SLV last thursday...nice to see BP and MRO edge higher. A lot of analysts are expecting a "spring rally" for oil plays...I think they're right. I like BP more than a DXO, for example, because of the dividends...which are decent.

Thought it was BP, MRO, and HOT? Of course, that thread got deleted, so feel free to channel AzCards.

 

[SecondCity34]

In on a bunch of FAS @ 2.72

 

[LHUCKS]

Got into BP, MRO and SLV last thursday...nice to see BP and MRO edge higher. A lot of analysts are expecting a "spring rally" for oil plays...I think they're right. I like BP more than a DXO, for example, because of the dividends...which are decent.

Thought it was BP, MRO, and HOT? Of course, that thread got deleted, so feel free to channel AzCards. :(

wow, didn't realize it got deleted , I also got into HOT which I think is a good short term play.

 

[LHUCKS]

In on a bunch of FAS @ 2.72

was contemplating this or something like it for the short term...

 

[adonis]

I ran across this on google finance:

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (PCX: VTI) ended the last trading session at $34.11. So far VTI has hit a 52-week low of $33.26 and 52-week high of $71.80. VTI has been showing support around 32.45 and resistance in the 35.73 range. Technical indicators are Bearish. VTI appears on the Investors Observer Select ETF and HOLDR list. For a hedged play on this stock, look at a Sep '09 33 covered call (VGW IG) for a net debit in the $30.11 area. That is also the break even stock price for this trade. This covered call has a 194 day duration, provides 11.73% downside protection and a 9.60% assigned return rate for an 18.06% annualized return rate (comparison purposes only). [For more information on these strategies along with more details on possible risks go to www.iotogo.com/HPWAinfo]

Can anyone decode what this means overall? I get bits and pieces of it, but is the overall picture for VTI bad or good?

 

[LHUCKS]

I ran across this on google finance:

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (PCX: VTI) ended the last trading session at $34.11. So far VTI has hit a 52-week low of $33.26 and 52-week high of $71.80. VTI has been showing support around 32.45 and resistance in the 35.73 range. Technical indicators are Bearish. VTI appears on the Investors Observer Select ETF and HOLDR list. For a hedged play on this stock, look at a Sep '09 33 covered call (VGW IG) for a net debit in the $30.11 area. That is also the break even stock price for this trade. This covered call has a 194 day duration, provides 11.73% downside protection and a 9.60% assigned return rate for an 18.06% annualized return rate (comparison purposes only). [For more information on these strategies along with more details on possible risks go to www.iotogo.com/HPWAinfo]

Can anyone decode what this means overall? I get bits and pieces of it, but is the overall picture for VTI bad or good?

Bad

 

[bigfishboy]

In on a bunch of FAS @ 2.72

I put in a limit buy for 2.90 over the weekend. It hit for 2.46! I have great hopes for this over the next few weeks.

 

[David Dodds]

Year to date profit = $10,941

Holding these positions - Not Realized Gains/Losses

4000 EXM @ 3.36 (current price 4.08)

8000 NM @ 1.99 (current price 2.00)

13000 SBLK @ 1.74 (current price 1.52)

5,000 FAS @ $2.75 (current price = $2.75)

I am still convinced this sector will have a huge bounce soon. I will sell in May regardless.

 

[David Dodds]

All signs point to an explosive Up day here. Pre-market: Nasdaq is up, Oil is up, and Dry-Shipping is up. The BDI has not been released yet, but if that is up a good bit, this will be the Trifecta (NASDAQ, OIL and BDI). Here's hoping for a $5000+ day here.

 

[David Dodds]

and FAS is up BIG too. +17% in pre-Market.....HUGE

 

[Keerock]

Love the way UCO looks pre-market. I may get out of this thing yet!

 

[David Dodds]

Love the way UCO looks pre-market. I may get out of this thing yet!

I am just about ready to bet against oil here. Front contract is trading at $48. If it goes much higher, I think I might take a position against oil going up in the short term especially if the inventory report on Wednesday is neutral.

 

[Keerock]

Love the way UCO looks pre-market. I may get out of this thing yet!

I am just about ready to bet against oil here. Front contract is trading at $48. If it goes much higher, I think I might take a position against oil going up in the short term especially if the inventory report on Wednesday is neutral.

Just get me to $9 first...

 

[David Dodds]

sold 5,000 FAS at $3.20.....very niceprofit of 45 cents a share x 5000 = $2,250 - $12 commissions

 

[SecondCity34]

sold 5,000 FAS at $3.20.....very niceprofit of 45 cents a share x 5000 = $2,250 - $12 commissions

Just my opinion, but I think it's over $4 by the end of the week, particularly if they suspend the mark-to-market accounting rules on Thursday.

 

[Jene Bramel]

sold 5,000 FAS at $3.20.....very niceprofit of 45 cents a share x 5000 = $2,250 - $12 commissions

Just my opinion, but I think it's over $4 by the end of the week, particularly if they suspend the mark-to-market accounting rules on Thursday.

This is just a hearing I think, and there are indications that those rules won't be suspended.

 

[David Dodds]

sold 5,000 FAS at $3.20.....very niceprofit of 45 cents a share x 5000 = $2,250 - $12 commissions

Just my opinion, but I think it's over $4 by the end of the week, particularly if they suspend the mark-to-market accounting rules on Thursday.

I am fine taking my gain here. I almost doubled down for another 5,000 shares at $2.50ish yesterday, but just hate being in this sector. I agree that it is still super cheap, but I also feel these 3X ETFs erode really fast so did not want to lose this big bump by getting greedy.I have real decisions to make on the shipping sector as they are all up huge today. I still have not seen the BDI report so I am holding for the minute.

 

[SecondCity34]

sold 5,000 FAS at $3.20.....very niceprofit of 45 cents a share x 5000 = $2,250 - $12 commissions

Just my opinion, but I think it's over $4 by the end of the week, particularly if they suspend the mark-to-market accounting rules on Thursday.

I am fine taking my gain here. I almost doubled down for another 5,000 shares at $2.50ish yesterday, but just hate being in this sector. I agree that it is still super cheap, but I also feel these 3X ETFs erode really fast so did not want to lose this big bump by getting greedy.I have real decisions to make on the shipping sector as they are all up huge today. I still have not seen the BDI report so I am holding for the minute.

Fair enough. Believe me, given my track record, there is an excellent chance I am completely wrong.

 

[Mark Davis]

Love the way UCO looks pre-market. I may get out of this thing yet!

I am just about ready to bet against oil here. Front contract is trading at $48. If it goes much higher, I think I might take a position against oil going up in the short term especially if the inventory report on Wednesday is neutral.

Just get me to $9 first...

We're on the same team here. My covered calls are written for $9.

 

[Buckna]

I didn't post it last week because it wasn't a trading position, but I was in on Thurs: WFC 435 shares @7.91. Was mainly accumulating as a long term position along with some lots I bought in the teens that are under water.

I'm thinking get out now with a 37% gain with the Citi "news" out today. Or are we touching off a bear market rally?

My 1,000 UCO is back to even thanks to the calls I wrote.

 

[LHUCKS]

Or are we touching off a bear market rally?

I'll be out of most my positions within a few weeks, but the ride may be fun in the upcoming days.

 

[Chaos Commish]

sold 5,000 FAS at $3.20.....very niceprofit of 45 cents a share x 5000 = $2,250 - $12 commissions

Just my opinion, but I think it's over $4 by the end of the week, particularly if they suspend the mark-to-market accounting rules on Thursday.

This is just a hearing I think, and there are indications that those rules won't be suspended.

Regardless. If suspension caused the massive rally some predict, I would respond with inverses, especially FAZ. Maybe it's just the accountant in me, but anyone with some common sense knows garbage is garbage no matter what the balance sheet says. It's not like toxic assets become bouquets of money because Congress says. Buckna, my guess is that there will be some rallying that will make room for more deleveraging in response. I've been waiting for a bull run for awhile. Maybe this is it, up 4% still early in the day.

 

[Buckna]

Sounds like some trailing stops might be in order then.

 

[Penguin]

Love the way UCO looks pre-market. I may get out of this thing yet!

I am just about ready to bet against oil here. Front contract is trading at $48. If it goes much higher, I think I might take a position against oil going up in the short term especially if the inventory report on Wednesday is neutral.

I hoping for a drop in the near future so I can get back in. Sold last Wednesday when it hit 2.40 and had a buy at 2.19 on Thursday that missed by a few cents. Been sitting on the sideline since

 

[Keerock]

My MOS is performing very nicely today

 

[SecondCity34]

sold 5,000 FAS at $3.20.....very niceprofit of 45 cents a share x 5000 = $2,250 - $12 commissions

Just my opinion, but I think it's over $4 by the end of the week, particularly if they suspend the mark-to-market accounting rules on Thursday.

I am fine taking my gain here. I almost doubled down for another 5,000 shares at $2.50ish yesterday, but just hate being in this sector. I agree that it is still super cheap, but I also feel these 3X ETFs erode really fast so did not want to lose this big bump by getting greedy.I have real decisions to make on the shipping sector as they are all up huge today. I still have not seen the BDI report so I am holding for the minute.

Fair enough. Believe me, given my track record, there is an excellent chance I am completely wrong.

OK, sold 1/2 @ $3.60

 

[Mole Richards]

I just put 500 bucks in my etrade account. Anything good to buy right now? What is the best way to double my money.

 

[adonis]

I just put 500 bucks in my etrade account. Anything good to buy right now? What is the best way to double my money.

Bet it all on red.

 

[Mole Richards]

I just put 500 bucks in my etrade account. Anything good to buy right now? What is the best way to double my money.

Bet it all on red.

Seriously though, I do want to double my money but I know it won't happen overnight. I'm happy with making 40-50 cents per share in a small scale for now. Doesn't seem like a great day to buy though as everything is up. Big question though if it continues or drops back off tomorrow.

 

[eoMMan]

I just put 500 bucks in my etrade account. Anything good to buy right now? What is the best way to double my money.

Bet it all on red.

Seriously though, I do want to double my money but I know it won't happen overnight. I'm happy with making 40-50 cents per share in a small scale for now. Doesn't seem like a great day to buy though as everything is up. Big question though if it continues or drops back off tomorrow.

If you only have $500, want to double it, all the while not being eaten up by transaction fees, you would need to focus on BIG movers that trade at fairly cheap prices.....stuff like DXO or FAS.

 

[Cunk]

I just put 500 bucks in my etrade account. Anything good to buy right now? What is the best way to double my money.

Through Dodd's dry-shipping love I found this stock named FREE @ 62 cents a share. I bought 1,000 of them. Seems to be doing ok.

 

[David Dodds]

Left for a bit, but sold 2,000 NM for $2.40 even though I don't show where it ever got to that price during my set. Profit on this trade = $680 - 12

It does look like I left a lot of money on the table with FAS, but hard to imagine a +6% NASDAQ day in this market.

Here is the latest regarding the Baltic Indexes:

Baltic Supramax 1,728 (+0.88%)

Baltic Handysize 755 (+3.71%)

Baltic Dry 2,298 (+1.59%)

Baltic Capesize 2,807 (-0.85%)

Baltic Panamax 2,417 (+4.36%)

The BDI has now risen the last 8 days

Mar 10, 2008 - 2298

Mar 09, 2009 - 2262

Mar 06, 2009 - 2225

Mar 05, 2009 - 2167

Mar 04, 2009 - 2084

Mar 03, 2009 - 2034

Mar 02, 2009 - 2014

Feb 27, 2009 - 1986

Feb 26, 2009 - 1950