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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (5 Viewers)

Was not my strategy going into today, but I just bought another 5,000 shares of PRGN at 3.42
What is your strategy with PRGN?.... are you looking for .20 or so out of it?Congrats on your YTD totals... definitely impressive. :shrug:
I just don't get this stock at all. They are one of the best managed shippers. They have already booked 98%, 55% and 38% of its available fleet days for FY 2009, FY 2010 and FY 2011 respectively. So the BDI will not even affect them this year. And they are very profitable. They proactively cut their dividend to accumulate money. They are also adding 10 million shares (dilution effect, but DRYS/EXM did way worse things), but that will allow them to complete orders of extra ships that are delivered soon. Their Fleet's average age is around 8 years. They also have permission to buy back their own stock so I think there is virtually no downside of this stock. So when the whole sector is up and they are down, I am going to buy these guys. I think what is happening right now is they are leaking a lot of these 10 million new shares out to the marketplace which is holding this stock back. With average volume around 450K a day, it might take a few months to get the 10 million shares out there. But make no mistake about it. This stock is going to pop within the next few months. And it might be one of the strongest Dry Shipping plays from June on. I did not intend to hold such a large position so early on it, but now that I have it I am likely going to hold unless I can indeed get my 0.20-0.25/share which I think it should be at already. In fact I think fair value of this stock is above $4.00, but I doubt I have the patience to wait for that.I think things will start clearing up with these guys (against their peers) as we get closer to quarter 2 earnings. I would not bet against PRGN who I would rate as one of the very best managed in this sector.
Thanks, I appreciate your insight.I will research more this weekend and may well pick some up for a longer term hold on Monday.
 
Congrats on your YTD totals... definitely impressive. :shrug:
It's funny because the goal I set for myself was to try and leverage my money well enough to try and gain $500 a day. Figuring about 240 trading days and that would be about $120K. The way I started I was thinking I had no chance, but I have been in a decent groove as of late. As most have noticed though I rarely get great prices selling as I am content with these little plays that make $600-$1,000 per move. I generally like to commit $8K-$10K in a position and then react with more shares (if it goes lower). If those shares gain 5-6% (+500) then I am usually content and get out. Generally I have about $60-80K active, with the goal of making a move or two a day to bank my win while replacing those shares with the next undervalued play. Lately I have not gotten upside down into many things and that's mostly because I have stayed in the Dry Shippers, oil plays and FEED (all of which have been kind to me).As the market starts to get closer to normal and I get a lot busier running the website, I am considering some longer plays. PRGN is one of those for me. DXO will be another if I can re-enter a bit cheaper here. I also think FEED will make it to 5 before the next earnings report, but most of it's big win has already been banked. And as a whole, I love the Dry Shippers. They have seen the worst of the times. They are all still so far off their highs that I think they are smart plays for the next few years.So we will see if all of these extra transactions and jumping around can continue to be successful. So far I have no complaints.
 
Year to Date Profit = $55,095

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: +1,198

FREE + 400 - 24

FEED +840 - 18

Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

2,000 EXM @ 6.94 - Currently at 6.93

13,000 PRGN @ 3.47 - Currently at 3.45

5,000 FEED @ 3.84 - Currently at 3.91

2,500 FREE @ 1.31 - Currently at 1.34
Wow -- very nice.BTW, on the shipping front, my super bright buddy who is now in B school at Columbia is a market wiz, and he loves DRYS. You two seem to be on the same page here.

He's also huge on CHK. He doesn't speak openly or very aggressively about many stocks, but he swears this is basically free money and will double in a year or so.

 
Serious quesiton here - whats the chances they have to start to kill off :banned: for public good? That might hurt FEED.
China is the largest consumer of pork in the world, and they import a bunch.This is just the news that could make or break stock...buy on rumor, sell on news. A quote on yahoonews:

...

Governments including China, Russia and Taiwan began planning to put anyone with symptoms of the deadly virus under quarantine.

Others were increasing their screening of pigs and pork imports from the Americas or banning them outright despite health officials' reassurances that it was safe to eat thoroughly cooked pork.

Some nations issued travel warnings for Mexico and the United States.

WHO's emergency committee is still trying to determine exactly how the virus has spread, ####uda said

"Right now we have cases occurring in a couple of different countries and in multiple locations," he said. "But we also know that in the modern world that cases can simply move around from single locations and not really become established."

Raising the pandemic alert phase could entail issuing specific recommendations to countries on how to halt the disease. So far, WHO has only urged governments to step up their surveillance of suspicious outbreaks.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan called the outbreak a public health emergency of "pandemic potential" because the virus can pass from human to human.

Her agency was considering whether to issue nonbinding recommendations on travel and trade restrictions, and even border closures. It is up to governments to decide whether to follow the advice.

...
Banning imports could send the price of domestic pork up (in China that is)...watch FEED carefully. This could be a boon for holders of FEED. Hell, the price could bottom in a panic, then skyrocket.This is a curve ball I hadn't considered.

ETA: the swine flu seems to be contained to our hemisphere, not China's. This may be nothing, but governments seem to be taking this seriously.

 
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I don't think there's a panic brewing, but a pandemic on top of what already looked like a pullback working it's way into the market isn't likely to be good.

 
I don't think there's a panic brewing, but a pandemic on top of what already looked like a pullback working it's way into the market isn't likely to be good.
Help me understand. I thought FEED dealt with only pork raised in China. The current swine flu is in North America. If China cuts off imports from regions with swine flu I would think that pork raised in China would see a rise in value.Just my thoughts, and remember, I would like to see a drop in pps to buy back into FEED...although I would love to see folks make some serious money.
 
I don't think there's a panic brewing, but a pandemic on top of what already looked like a pullback working it's way into the market isn't likely to be good.
Help me understand. I thought FEED dealt with only pork raised in China. The current swine flu is in North America. If China cuts off imports from regions with swine flu I would think that pork raised in China would see a rise in value.Just my thoughts, and remember, I would like to see a drop in pps to buy back into FEED...although I would love to see folks make some serious money.
Have no idea about FEED specifically, though I probably should since I'm still holding shares. :confused:I meant that as a general comment about the state of the markets this week. Sorry for being unclear.
 
I don't think there's a panic brewing, but a pandemic on top of what already looked like a pullback working it's way into the market isn't likely to be good.
Help me understand. I thought FEED dealt with only pork raised in China. The current swine flu is in North America. If China cuts off imports from regions with swine flu I would think that pork raised in China would see a rise in value.Just my thoughts, and remember, I would like to see a drop in pps to buy back into FEED...although I would love to see folks make some serious money.
Have no idea about FEED specifically, though I probably should since I'm still holding shares. :confused:I meant that as a general comment about the state of the markets this week. Sorry for being unclear.
No problem.I see this swine flu story as the equivalent to the latest missing child news sensation...while concerning, it may be nothing. Unfortunately, these stories can drive the market, and hopefully for the FEED holders, it drives it into the double digits.
 
Serious quesiton here - whats the chances they have to start to kill off :confused: for public good? That might hurt FEED.
China is the largest consumer of pork in the world, and they import a bunch.This is just the news that could make or break stock...buy on rumor, sell on news. A quote on yahoonews:

...

Governments including China, Russia and Taiwan began planning to put anyone with symptoms of the deadly virus under quarantine.

Others were increasing their screening of pigs and pork imports from the Americas or banning them outright despite health officials' reassurances that it was safe to eat thoroughly cooked pork.

Some nations issued travel warnings for Mexico and the United States.

WHO's emergency committee is still trying to determine exactly how the virus has spread, ####uda said

"Right now we have cases occurring in a couple of different countries and in multiple locations," he said. "But we also know that in the modern world that cases can simply move around from single locations and not really become established."

Raising the pandemic alert phase could entail issuing specific recommendations to countries on how to halt the disease. So far, WHO has only urged governments to step up their surveillance of suspicious outbreaks.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan called the outbreak a public health emergency of "pandemic potential" because the virus can pass from human to human.

Her agency was considering whether to issue nonbinding recommendations on travel and trade restrictions, and even border closures. It is up to governments to decide whether to follow the advice.

...
Banning imports could send the price of domestic pork up (in China that is)...watch FEED carefully. This could be a boon for holders of FEED. Hell, the price could bottom in a panic, then skyrocket.This is a curve ball I hadn't considered.

ETA: the swine flu seems to be contained to our hemisphere, not China's. This may be nothing, but governments seem to be taking this seriously.
Didn't consider that the pandemic could be a positive, as far as FEED goes..
 
Serious quesiton here - whats the chances they have to start to kill off :popcorn: for public good? That might hurt FEED.
China is the largest consumer of pork in the world, and they import a bunch.This is just the news that could make or break stock...buy on rumor, sell on news. A quote on yahoonews:

...

Governments including China, Russia and Taiwan began planning to put anyone with symptoms of the deadly virus under quarantine.

Others were increasing their screening of pigs and pork imports from the Americas or banning them outright despite health officials' reassurances that it was safe to eat thoroughly cooked pork.

Some nations issued travel warnings for Mexico and the United States.

WHO's emergency committee is still trying to determine exactly how the virus has spread, ####uda said

"Right now we have cases occurring in a couple of different countries and in multiple locations," he said. "But we also know that in the modern world that cases can simply move around from single locations and not really become established."

Raising the pandemic alert phase could entail issuing specific recommendations to countries on how to halt the disease. So far, WHO has only urged governments to step up their surveillance of suspicious outbreaks.

WHO Director-General Margaret Chan called the outbreak a public health emergency of "pandemic potential" because the virus can pass from human to human.

Her agency was considering whether to issue nonbinding recommendations on travel and trade restrictions, and even border closures. It is up to governments to decide whether to follow the advice.

...
Banning imports could send the price of domestic pork up (in China that is)...watch FEED carefully. This could be a boon for holders of FEED. Hell, the price could bottom in a panic, then skyrocket.This is a curve ball I hadn't considered.

ETA: the swine flu seems to be contained to our hemisphere, not China's. This may be nothing, but governments seem to be taking this seriously.
Didn't consider that the pandemic could be a positive, as far as FEED goes..
Your earlier question was a great one... good thinking/anticipation.It seems to me like this is more likely to be bad for FEED.

 
http://www.agfeedinc.com/

Just want to point out two pdf articles on the left margin on the agfeed website...The March 2008 USDA article mentions the affects of Classical Swine Fever, blue ear disease, and avian influenza in relation to pork production and imports in China.

If imports are cut due to the swine flu scare, I see this as a benefit to FEED...just as long as the swine flu stays on this side of the hemisphere.

 
I am sitting on a bunch of FEED so I guess we will see. I might actually dump virtually everything I have and just stick in a cash holding situation until I get a better grasp at what is going on with this flu. I could see it spur a huge market sell off.

 
Looks like my portfolio is going to be ravaged this morning because of the swine flu. The fact that I almost cashed out of everything on Friday makes this hurt 100X harder. Not sure what I am going to do here. I don't think I am selling FEED as it looks like a panic move. I may actually move out of the Dry Shippers at losses though just to have a bigger cash/oil position.

 
Looks like my portfolio is going to be ravaged this morning because of the swine flu. The fact that I almost cashed out of everything on Friday makes this hurt 100X harder. Not sure what I am going to do here. I don't think I am selling FEED as it looks like a panic move. I may actually move out of the Dry Shippers at losses though just to have a bigger cash/oil position.
BDI down again this morning, not that it's been a big driver of the dry shippers lately, but another sign that it's probably time to move out of the shippers. I'm selling EXM this morning and hoping to get back in around 6 or better. Current plan is to hold FEED and cost average later. I'll probably get out of my other swing trading positions around where I bought them and look to buy DXO when it settles out or play with a little FAZ fire.
 
I ended up getting DXO for $2.53 as well
You guys are going to do very well here.
I need this one to cover all my losses in everything else here. I was afraid to put a bunch of market orders in but likely should have just exited the PRGN position as I knew it would head lower. It now screams a buy again at 3.25 range. I hesitated a bit on DXO because I was not sure if I wanted to buy more FEED or DXO. FEED was real nice at 3.40 and I probably should have jumped in and then cashed out all those shares when it got to 3.65 or so. That was my initial thought but also got spooked that oil was moving a lot higher too. Today is going to be a great buying day for people.
 
Got in DXO at 254 thumbsup. Also holding free I bought last week or so at 134. Trying to be patient with FREE

 
What are your exit prices for DXO....
Think I'll be looking to get out when the front month price pushes above 50.00. That'd be around 2.70. Front month contracts have been pushing 51 at times over the past week and it looks like the market has shrugged off whatever was bugging it ( :lmao: sorry) this morning if you feel like pressing your luck to the 2.75-2.80 range.
 
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I'm planning on holding mine all day and throughout the night. I think it will up tick during the after hours nicely, and want to get that boost. I will probably sell first thing in the morning no matter what it is at as long as I'm green.

 
Today's my birthday so I have been understandably distracted this morning. Hate that I missed jumping on DXO and FEED this morning at the open.

 
I am convinced that this market has legs. Nasdaq is in positive territory right now which is shocking with the flu news. I am about to dump FEED if it gets a little higher. I don't like the chance that they discover a case in China which would kill this stock until the next earnings report.

Going to keep manuevering here to be deeper in oil and Dry Shipping I think.

 
Sold 2500 FREE at 1.36. Probably going higher, but I like getting a little profit here on a day when I expected everything to be south.

 
What are your exit prices for DXO....
Think I'll be looking to get out when the front month price pushes above 50.00. That'd be around 2.70. Front month contracts have been pushing 51 at times over the past week and it looks like the market has shrugged off whatever was bugging it ( :thumbup: sorry) this morning if you feel like pressing your luck to the 2.75-2.80 range.
$2.70 hit...I now chickened out again and have a sell order in at $2.78.
 
Jesus, you guys making money hand-over-fist in here are really making me want to jump back into the market and do some day trading along with. Awesome stuff in here :lmao:

 

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