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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

I am done here for the day. To much site stuff I need to be doing today. Pleased to survive today actually as bad as it looked pre-market. I am currently upside down in everything I own though. I have a buy in for 3,000 FEED if it gets to 3.45. I have a sell in for 4,000 PRGN if it gets to 3.38 (Both doubtful I think).

Year to Date Profit = $55,772

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: +677

FREE + 75 - 12

DXO +1100 - 12

PRGN - 450 - 24

Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

2,000 EXM @ 6.94 - Currently at 6.69

10,000 PRGN @ 3.43 - Currently at 3.23

5,000 FEED @ 3.84 - Currently at 3.58

 
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KGB said:
Guess I shoulda sold my dxo earlier. Grr
Click to expand...
Heh. Got distracted before dropping the big guy off at preschool and left just before noon without setting a sell order (would've done something between 2.72 and 2.75). It'll be back there sometime in the next 48 hours I'd guess, but oops.
 
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I lied, I ended up buying 5,000 DXO at 2.57 for today. Can I flip this one today too? That would be pretty funny. Setting it to sell at 2.75 again.

 
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Year to Date Profit = $55,772

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: +677

FREE + 75 - 12

DXO +1100 - 12

PRGN - 450 - 24

Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

2,000 EXM @ 6.94 - Currently at 6.55

10,000 PRGN @ 3.43 - Currently at 3.21

8,000 FEED @ 3.69 - Currently at 3.46

5,000 DXO @ 2.57 - Currently at 2.62

 
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Yea. I'm holding my dxo too. Not worried about that.

I did do everyone a favor and bought some prgn sending it into the abyss so you all can buy it at a nice low price. :thumbsup:

 
Having seen CNN pound this Swine Flu story into the ground, I am convinced this thing is unfortunately going to drag the market lower from all sides. It does not matter that the world will solve this thing soon. What matters is people are reacting by pulling money out of the market. So unfortunately I see stocks like PRGN heading lower. And I don't think chasing them lower makes a ton of sense.

I think I am done buying anything except oil stocks until I see some recovery here in the market. And when the recovery happens, I suspect that Dry Shippers will bounce the hardest back (because they had great momentum before this story). Not sure if I am going to hold all of my PRGN stock or just bite the bullet and eat half of it on any decent price. I think I am holding FEED and will look to cost average down once a recovery happens in the market.

Although I am sure there will be some gainers this week, I personally think this is one of those times not to fight the market tide. Things are going lower. Even oil might go a lot lower than what we have seen recently. Remember people, cash is a position. And sometimes your strongest asset. Going to take some lumps today to be in a lot better position to do something about it tomorrow and beyond.

 
David Dodds said:
Having seen CNN pound this Swine Flu story into the ground, I am convinced this thing is unfortunately going to drag the market lower from all sides. It does not matter that the world will solve this thing soon.
Click to expand...
This was exactly my reaction watching Anderson Cooper and a few minutes of Larry King last night. NBC is reporting this morning that they may have found the origin - a boy who became ill in Mexico had been in contact with pigs. I think if FEED gets hit more than the market on this, it will be misplaced fear and an opportunity.
 
I agree this is likely a huge opportunity, but the question remains when to enter. It's possible this forces the market down all week. Once the rebound starts though, I suspect it will move violently upward (especially with FEED and the Dry Shippers). So not really sure what I will do here. I might add to my FEED position. Hog prices moved down $3 yesterday based on this so this already will have some impact on earnings until those prices resume.

 
I'll probably buy some DXO at the open. OPEC ain't letting a summer go by without making some coin. Wouldn't surprise me if they pay Hamas to lob some rockets if that's what it takes to keep oil over $50.

 
Oil appears to be leveling out now, but I'm not sure I'd jump into DXO until the front month approaches 48 today, but I'd be getting out between 49.50 and 50 (if we get there). No way I'd be pressing my luck to 51 today if I was looking to get out. Still holding shares from yesterday and I think I'll be setting a very tight trailing stop if this tops 2.60.

Fussy that I left without a stop yesterday afternoon.

 
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OK, decided to take some serious lumps here and sold 5,000 PRGN at 3.14-3.16 (market price at opening). Average was 3.15. Sucks for sure, but I want to have money to move around and make bold moves if this market goes a lot lower.

 
David Dodds said:
I agree this is likely a huge opportunity, but the question remains when to enter.
Click to expand...
I've been watching the chart the last couple of days. It was a good sign that it closed up off the lows yesterday (green candle -- or white if you use stockcharts.com). So far is following suit today. Anything in the 2s I think would be very safe. If it gets there.
 
David Dodds said:
Having seen CNN pound this Swine Flu story into the ground, I am convinced this thing is unfortunately going to drag the market lower from all sides. It does not matter that the world will solve this thing soon. What matters is people are reacting by pulling money out of the market. So unfortunately I see stocks like PRGN heading lower. And I don't think chasing them lower makes a ton of sense. I think I am done buying anything except oil stocks until I see some recovery here in the market. And when the recovery happens, I suspect that Dry Shippers will bounce the hardest back (because they had great momentum before this story). Not sure if I am going to hold all of my PRGN stock or just bite the bullet and eat half of it on any decent price. I think I am holding FEED and will look to cost average down once a recovery happens in the market.Although I am sure there will be some gainers this week, I personally think this is one of those times not to fight the market tide. Things are going lower. Even oil might go a lot lower than what we have seen recently. Remember people, cash is a position. And sometimes your strongest asset. Going to take some lumps today to be in a lot better position to do something about it tomorrow and beyond.
Click to expand...
David,For what it's worth, my buddy who is in business school at Columbia and a stock market junky told me yesterday that he pulled everything he had out of the market. Based on the technicals, he expects approximately a 10% pullback across the board before things begin to climb back up again. The convergence of the technicals with this flu nonsense makes it sound even wiser. He's shorting all of the markets on the way down with 3x bear shares etc.
 
I am going to try and cost average myself out of FEED over the next two days here. I just added 3,000 more shares at 3.38. I will buy below 3.40 and sell above 3.50. I am hopeful this will work as this thing was super volatile yesterday and am hoping for enough of these little moves to pull this off.

I now have 11,000 shares at 3.60. I am going to wait a few seconds here before pulling the trigger to dump 3,000 at 3.50. Would love a few more cents here.

 
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Otis said:
David Dodds said:
Having seen CNN pound this Swine Flu story into the ground, I am convinced this thing is unfortunately going to drag the market lower from all sides. It does not matter that the world will solve this thing soon. What matters is people are reacting by pulling money out of the market. So unfortunately I see stocks like PRGN heading lower. And I don't think chasing them lower makes a ton of sense. I think I am done buying anything except oil stocks until I see some recovery here in the market. And when the recovery happens, I suspect that Dry Shippers will bounce the hardest back (because they had great momentum before this story). Not sure if I am going to hold all of my PRGN stock or just bite the bullet and eat half of it on any decent price. I think I am holding FEED and will look to cost average down once a recovery happens in the market.Although I am sure there will be some gainers this week, I personally think this is one of those times not to fight the market tide. Things are going lower. Even oil might go a lot lower than what we have seen recently. Remember people, cash is a position. And sometimes your strongest asset. Going to take some lumps today to be in a lot better position to do something about it tomorrow and beyond.
Click to expand...
David,For what it's worth, my buddy who is in business school at Columbia and a stock market junky told me yesterday that he pulled everything he had out of the market. Based on the technicals, he expects approximately a 10% pullback across the board before things begin to climb back up again. The convergence of the technicals with this flu nonsense makes it sound even wiser. He's shorting all of the markets on the way down with 3x bear shares etc.
Click to expand...
I think this is correct. I have been following the McClellan Oscillator too and also think the market could correct soon. So this swine thing is just forcing the issue a bit early.
 
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and out of FEED at 3.60. Wow that was too easy. I may regret getting out this easy, but I think there is easier money right now than being in hogfarms. I will buy FEED again if it goes below 3.40

 
It looks like I bailed on FEED and PRGN too soon, but I am fine with a few lumps with a sketchy market. I am also pleased that PRGN is heading higher today.

 
Interesting how the Contango has tightened up. Difference between front end oil and 6 month oil is less than $6. Personally that tells me that DXO has an excellent chance to shoot up. At the height of the Contango, 2nd month oil was going for +$5. Today it's just a $1.29.

CLM09.NYM Crude Oil Jun 09 - 49.13

CLN09.NYM Crude Oil Jul 09 - 50.42

CLQ09.NYM Crude Oil Aug 09 - 51.60

CLU09.NYM Crude Oil Sep 09 - 52.72

CLV09.NYM Crude Oil Oct 09 - 53.63

CLX09.NYM Crude Oil Nov 09 - 55.11

 
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added 2,000 shares of EXM at 6.51 to now have 4,000 at 6.73. Plan is to cost average out of these. Just need EXM to bounce back where it was an hour ago.

 
BassNBrew said:
I'll probably buy some DXO at the open. OPEC ain't letting a summer go by without making some coin. Wouldn't surprise me if they pay Hamas to lob some rockets if that's what it takes to keep oil over $50.
Click to expand...
Me too B&B which is why I'm more than happy to hold my 5400 shares.
 
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Otis said:
David Dodds said:
Having seen CNN pound this Swine Flu story into the ground, I am convinced this thing is unfortunately going to drag the market lower from all sides. It does not matter that the world will solve this thing soon. What matters is people are reacting by pulling money out of the market. So unfortunately I see stocks like PRGN heading lower. And I don't think chasing them lower makes a ton of sense. I think I am done buying anything except oil stocks until I see some recovery here in the market. And when the recovery happens, I suspect that Dry Shippers will bounce the hardest back (because they had great momentum before this story). Not sure if I am going to hold all of my PRGN stock or just bite the bullet and eat half of it on any decent price. I think I am holding FEED and will look to cost average down once a recovery happens in the market.Although I am sure there will be some gainers this week, I personally think this is one of those times not to fight the market tide. Things are going lower. Even oil might go a lot lower than what we have seen recently. Remember people, cash is a position. And sometimes your strongest asset. Going to take some lumps today to be in a lot better position to do something about it tomorrow and beyond.
Click to expand...
David,For what it's worth, my buddy who is in business school at Columbia and a stock market junky told me yesterday that he pulled everything he had out of the market. Based on the technicals, he expects approximately a 10% pullback across the board before things begin to climb back up again. The convergence of the technicals with this flu nonsense makes it sound even wiser. He's shorting all of the markets on the way down with 3x bear shares etc.
Click to expand...
I assume a 10% pullback correllates to the expected 10% drop in population due to Ultra Fatal Zombie :shrug: Flu.
 
Otis said:
David Dodds said:
Having seen CNN pound this Swine Flu story into the ground, I am convinced this thing is unfortunately going to drag the market lower from all sides. It does not matter that the world will solve this thing soon. What matters is people are reacting by pulling money out of the market. So unfortunately I see stocks like PRGN heading lower. And I don't think chasing them lower makes a ton of sense. I think I am done buying anything except oil stocks until I see some recovery here in the market. And when the recovery happens, I suspect that Dry Shippers will bounce the hardest back (because they had great momentum before this story). Not sure if I am going to hold all of my PRGN stock or just bite the bullet and eat half of it on any decent price. I think I am holding FEED and will look to cost average down once a recovery happens in the market.Although I am sure there will be some gainers this week, I personally think this is one of those times not to fight the market tide. Things are going lower. Even oil might go a lot lower than what we have seen recently. Remember people, cash is a position. And sometimes your strongest asset. Going to take some lumps today to be in a lot better position to do something about it tomorrow and beyond.
Click to expand...
David,For what it's worth, my buddy who is in business school at Columbia and a stock market junky told me yesterday that he pulled everything he had out of the market. Based on the technicals, he expects approximately a 10% pullback across the board before things begin to climb back up again. The convergence of the technicals with this flu nonsense makes it sound even wiser. He's shorting all of the markets on the way down with 3x bear shares etc.
Click to expand...
The Orange Whip Effect.
 
I'm thinking about writing a parody tune called "Dry Shipper" set to the Beatles "Day Tripper." Thoughts?



She was a dry shipper. Limit order, yeah. It took me sooooo long, to buy down.. but I bought down.

 
Mr. Pickles said:
I'm thinking about writing a parody tune called "Dry Shipper" set to the Beatles "Day Tripper." Thoughts?



She was a dry shipper. Limit order, yeah. It took me sooooo long, to buy down.. but I bought down.
Click to expand...
:lmao: :lmao: :lmao: ETA - Don't know if you do disco, but maybe you can work something up for FAZ to the tune of Tragedy

 
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Dxo just missed your 266. I'm holding my dxo until at least the 270s or more.

Might try to play the dips but this thing can sky back into 3 dollar land easily I think

 
Year to Date Profit = $54,012

Today's Realized Gains/Losses: -1760

PRGN = -1424

FEED = -336

Holding these positions (unrealized gains/losses):

4,000 EXM @ 6.73 - Currently at 6.45

5,000 PRGN @ 3.43 - Currently at 3.15

5,000 DXO @ 2.57 - Currently at 2.59

Bit the bullet here and got leaner here. Although I think this Swine flu story should not affect things, I prefer being in cash and reacting to any major fluctuations. I could have timed things better on both PRGN and FEED today, but am OK with how it played out. I am looking to actively manage myself out of EXM in the next few days with purchases and sales. Even at 6.73, there is a chance the stock could rebound to that level without taking a loss. I am likely stuck in PRGN for a bit here. I am fine with my DXO holding and will add if it drops below 2.50.

 
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API Report - Mostly Bad News

Biggest points:

- The API said that U.S. crude stocks rose 4.6 million barrels to 374.8 million barrels in the week to April 24, more than twice the 2.1 million barrel build forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts. (Bad News)

- Gasoline stocks fell 2.6 million barrels to 216 million barrels, the API said, against the forecast for a 200,000 barrel drawdown. (Good News)

- Distillate supplies rose 2.6 million barrels, to 144.4 million barrels, way above the forecast for a 600,000 barrel increase, the API said. (Bad News)

 
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