What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

lod01 said:
And just that quick, I'm outta FAZ
I think this will be the way to play these going forward, repeadedly hitting them for small gains. Before I was buying and holding for a few days getting 10-20% gains. I think now you will have to intraday trade and hope to hit 5%.Sucks for a lot of us as we do not have 25,000 in our accounts, and can't pull off multiple intraday trades. Plus many of us have jobs that don't allow us to watch every dip and run.

Good luck to all!
Agreed. Could have held longer and made more at current level but everytime I tried that, it would go up and then rocket south below my buy.
 
Oil prices have hovered around $50 a barrel for several weeks, even though government data show that the American appetite for petroleum has dwindled to its lowest point in a decade, and storage houses are holding the most unused crude in nearly 19 years.
Interesting but we are not the only game in town anymore. China is going to be a huge player going forward. Ditto India. We can drain those storage houses in a matter of days.
 
How many more days can SCO fall? I want to add to my position, but not sure how long it will take to get to 32-33 /sh.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Paragon's volume is nuts again as the company keeps diluting the shares. Just look for a spot to get in on this company. It is set to pop when this diluton stops (I think dilution will be done by 3+ weeks if volume stays crazy like this). Paragon should be trading at 4.50+ in my opinion. I expect it to drop to 3.32-3.36 later today though.
All the dryshippers are up 10-15% today except for PRGN.
 
Paragon's volume is nuts again as the company keeps diluting the shares. Just look for a spot to get in on this company. It is set to pop when this diluton stops (I think dilution will be done by 3+ weeks if volume stays crazy like this). Paragon should be trading at 4.50+ in my opinion. I expect it to drop to 3.32-3.36 later today though.
All the dryshippers are up 10-15% today except for PRGN.
Volume is 1.36M against 506K normally. At this rate those 10 million new shares sold might be done next week. LOLThis is going to seem CRAZY, but I am seriously considering buying back in higher than I just sold today. I think it's going to pop really big and I think this is crazy volume tells me it's way sooner that I originally thought.
 
Anyone know what's going on with Borders stock (BGP). It's been shooting up the last few days. They've replaced several board members recently, and avoided a reverse stock split, anything else?
:towelwave: Everyone thinks we're going bankrupt. We're not. FYI, stock has been tanking on Monday's. If you're looking to buy in, wait until late Monday or early Tuesday morning.
 
Paragon's volume is nuts again as the company keeps diluting the shares. Just look for a spot to get in on this company. It is set to pop when this diluton stops (I think dilution will be done by 3+ weeks if volume stays crazy like this). Paragon should be trading at 4.50+ in my opinion. I expect it to drop to 3.32-3.36 later today though.
All the dryshippers are up 10-15% today except for PRGN.
Volume is 1.36M against 506K normally. At this rate those 10 million new shares sold might be done next week. LOLThis is going to seem CRAZY, but I am seriously considering buying back in higher than I just sold today. I think it's going to pop really big and I think this is crazy volume tells me it's way sooner that I originally thought.
Please explain something to me. You're talking about dilution and then a buy back. I really don't understand why a company would do that.
 
I have a buy in right now to get back into PRGN. Hopefully it executed

Edit: It's teasing me. I have a buy for 5,000 at 3.40. I got 1600 so far at that price. I still think it heads south again to get back to 3.40.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I got all 5,000 PRGN at 3.40. I knew this company could not resist a last sale there. Very very happy. This thing is primed to pop.

 
I got all 5,000 PRGN at 3.40. I knew this company could not resist a last sale there. Very very happy. This thing is primed to pop.
They want anything to do with $3.39. Really didn't want anymore as I'm sitting on 2000 shares, just was curious if it would execute.
 
My Paragon strategy:

1. Sell at 4.25

2. Add another 5,000 shares if this goes to 3.25 and another 5,000 again if it goes to 3.15

Ride this thing until next earnings report or $4.25 whichever hits first.

 
I got all 5,000 PRGN at 3.40. I knew this company could not resist a last sale there. Very very happy. This thing is primed to pop.
They want anything to do with $3.39. Really didn't want anymore as I'm sitting on 2000 shares, just was curious if it would execute.
I think they dumped a lot of shares today. Volume was at 1.60M against normal at 506K. There is huge pressure for this stock to go higher from the public. But the dilution of the 10M shares by the company is holding it back considerably (compare their results over the last month to EXM, DRYS, GNK, SBLK, etc). If I am correct here and they get a lot of these shares into the marketplace before the next earnings report, their balance sheet is going to look AWESOME (loaded in cash, solid earnings, 98% ships committed, etc). At that stage they should be in an excellent position to add more ships too. And this is the simplistic view. I think this thing is even more devious. I think they fully intend to have all 10 million new shares into the marketplace before earnings and also to have loaded up a ton of their own shares before they release earnings. So don't be fooled when they delay earnings. It's all part of the master plan. Because when they show what they have done, this thing is going to pop. I also think there is a smallish chance that the JPM announcement that they would be getting deeper into shipping might somehow be connected to all of this (They announce some sort of joint venture to significantly add to the PRGN fleet). This thing has a P/E ratio of 1.34 today. My $4.25 estimate could end up being way low. I am going to watch this thing like a hawk next week. This might be my huge shot I take this year (felling good rolling on money already earned). I really can not see a scenario where I lose a ton of money with this stock. I can however see a scenario where I make boatloads of cash. It will be tough being patient, but with football season on me here this is exactly the kind of play I need right now. I think my goal is to have 20,000 shares of PRGN by the end of next week.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
1-May-09 1,630,000 (estimated)

30-Apr-09 872,772

29-Apr-09 485,566

28-Apr-09 368,926

27-Apr-09 720,553

24-Apr-09 502,092

23-Apr-09 765,143

22-Apr-09 564,451

21-Apr-09 767,960

20-Apr-09 714,287

17-Apr-09 2,303,046 (stock hits 3.99 despite massive downward pressure applied by them)

16-Apr-09 607,130

15-Apr-09 268,837

14-Apr-09 618,745

13-Apr-09 269,194

9-Apr-09 432,880

------------------------

I believe this strategy was adopted around this point

------------------------

8-Apr-09 186,718

7-Apr-09 245,881

6-Apr-09 194,998

3-Apr-09 178,395

2-Apr-09 464,135

1-Apr-09 295,865

31-Mar-09 178,963

30-Mar-09 296,855

27-Mar-09 344,729

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I got all 5,000 PRGN at 3.40. I knew this company could not resist a last sale there. Very very happy. This thing is primed to pop.
They want anything to do with $3.39. Really didn't want anymore as I'm sitting on 2000 shares, just was curious if it would execute.
I think they dumped a lot of shares today. Volume was at 1.60M against normal at 506K. There is huge pressure for this stock to go higher from the public. But the dilution of the 10M shares by the company is holding it back considerably (compare their results over the last month to EXM, DRYS, GNK, SBLK, etc). If I am correct here and they get a lot of these shares into the marketplace before the next earnings report, their balance sheet is going to look AWESOME (loaded in cash, solid earnings, 98% ships committed, etc). At that stage they should be in an excellent position to add more ships too. And this is the simplistic view. I think this thing is even more devious. I think they fully intend to have all 10 million new shares into the marketplace before earnings and also to have loaded up a ton of their own shares before they release earnings. So don't be fooled when they delay earnings. It's all part of the master plan. Because when they show what they have done, this thing is going to pop. I also think there is a smallish chance that the JPM announcement that they would be getting deeper into shipping might somehow be connected to all of this (They announce some sort of joint venture to significantly add to the PRGN fleet). This thing has a P/E ratio of 1.34 today. My $4.25 estimate could end up being way low. I am going to watch this thing like a hawk next week. This might be my huge shot I take this year (felling good rolling on money already earned). I really can not see a scenario where I lose a ton of money with this stock. I can however see a scenario where I make boatloads of cash. It will be tough being patient, but with football season on me here this is exactly the kind of play I need right now. I think my goal is to have 20,000 shares of PRGN by the end of next week.
So you're completely ignoring all the red flags I pointed out on this stock.....good luck to you then. I actually hope you're right, for your financial well-being.
 
stubby said:
So you're completely ignoring all the red flags I pointed out on this stock.....good luck to you then. I actually hope you're right, for your financial well-being.
Your red flags made no sense to me at all. Namely:1. Oversupply of ships - Definitely not true for the short term as 6 million dwt were sold for scrap already this year. Most of the big Dry Shippers either delayed or defaulted on ships they would take in 2009. Some ships could come in play as the year winds out, but I expect Q1 and Q2 to have similar number of ships (between 225 and 250 ships).27% of the current fleet (112 dwt) is over 21 years old. As new ships come online, I suspect we will see more and more of these older ships retired.2. Money supply - Paragon restructured all of their debt so they only owe between 10M - 15M per quarter through 2011. They will easily be able to pay this expense. This restructuring also saved them lots of money as they originally owed 204M balloon payment in 2010 Q4 that is now wiped out. I am pretty sure my financial well-being will be ok here whether this turns out profitable or not. I see very limited downside from current PRGN prices and tons of upside.
 
stubby said:
I got all 5,000 PRGN at 3.40. I knew this company could not resist a last sale there. Very very happy. This thing is primed to pop.
They want anything to do with $3.39. Really didn't want anymore as I'm sitting on 2000 shares, just was curious if it would execute.
I think they dumped a lot of shares today. Volume was at 1.60M against normal at 506K. There is huge pressure for this stock to go higher from the public. But the dilution of the 10M shares by the company is holding it back considerably (compare their results over the last month to EXM, DRYS, GNK, SBLK, etc). If I am correct here and they get a lot of these shares into the marketplace before the next earnings report, their balance sheet is going to look AWESOME (loaded in cash, solid earnings, 98% ships committed, etc). At that stage they should be in an excellent position to add more ships too. And this is the simplistic view. I think this thing is even more devious. I think they fully intend to have all 10 million new shares into the marketplace before earnings and also to have loaded up a ton of their own shares before they release earnings. So don't be fooled when they delay earnings. It's all part of the master plan. Because when they show what they have done, this thing is going to pop. I also think there is a smallish chance that the JPM announcement that they would be getting deeper into shipping might somehow be connected to all of this (They announce some sort of joint venture to significantly add to the PRGN fleet). This thing has a P/E ratio of 1.34 today. My $4.25 estimate could end up being way low. I am going to watch this thing like a hawk next week. This might be my huge shot I take this year (felling good rolling on money already earned). I really can not see a scenario where I lose a ton of money with this stock. I can however see a scenario where I make boatloads of cash. It will be tough being patient, but with football season on me here this is exactly the kind of play I need right now. I think my goal is to have 20,000 shares of PRGN by the end of next week.
So you're completely ignoring all the red flags I pointed out on this stock.....good luck to you then. I actually hope you're right, for your financial well-being.
Could you explain your concerns about PRGN a bit more?... I'd appreciate hearing them.The market seems to really be soaking up the new shares, I'm considering picking some up next week as well.
 
stubby said:
So you're completely ignoring all the red flags I pointed out on this stock.....good luck to you then. I actually hope you're right, for your financial well-being.
Your red flags made no sense to me at all. Namely:1. Oversupply of ships - Definitely not true for the short term as 6 million dwt were sold for scrap already this year. Most of the big Dry Shippers either delayed or defaulted on ships they would take in 2009. Some ships could come in play as the year winds out, but I expect Q1 and Q2 to have similar number of ships (between 225 and 250 ships).27% of the current fleet (112 dwt) is over 21 years old. As new ships come online, I suspect we will see more and more of these older ships retired.2. Money supply - Paragon restructured all of their debt so they only owe between 10M - 15M per quarter through 2011. They will easily be able to pay this expense. This restructuring also saved them lots of money as they originally owed 204M balloon payment in 2010 Q4 that is now wiped out. I am pretty sure my financial well-being will be ok here whether this turns out profitable or not. I see very limited downside from current PRGN prices and tons of upside.
Again, you're being stubborn, and looking at everything short-term, blaming everything on dilution. My previous posts were merely outlying why BDI does matter to Paragon, and several other factors why the stock isn't "trading where you think it should be," attempting to give you some insight as to what other people trading in the industry are looking at. I even wished you success, and now you've come back all snippy with me just because I was trying to share with you some information. :lmao:
 
stubby said:
So you're completely ignoring all the red flags I pointed out on this stock.....good luck to you then. I actually hope you're right, for your financial well-being.
Your red flags made no sense to me at all. Namely:1. Oversupply of ships - Definitely not true for the short term as 6 million dwt were sold for scrap already this year. Most of the big Dry Shippers either delayed or defaulted on ships they would take in 2009. Some ships could come in play as the year winds out, but I expect Q1 and Q2 to have similar number of ships (between 225 and 250 ships).27% of the current fleet (112 dwt) is over 21 years old. As new ships come online, I suspect we will see more and more of these older ships retired.2. Money supply - Paragon restructured all of their debt so they only owe between 10M - 15M per quarter through 2011. They will easily be able to pay this expense. This restructuring also saved them lots of money as they originally owed 204M balloon payment in 2010 Q4 that is now wiped out. I am pretty sure my financial well-being will be ok here whether this turns out profitable or not. I see very limited downside from current PRGN prices and tons of upside.
Again, you're being stubborn, and looking at everything short-term, blaming everything on dilution. My previous posts were merely outlying why BDI does matter to Paragon, and several other factors why the stock isn't "trading where you think it should be," attempting to give you some insight as to what other people trading in the industry are looking at. I even wished you success, and now you've come back all snippy with me just because I was trying to share with you some information. :banned:
In the short term, the BDI isn't likely to matter for Paragon at all because 98% of their charter time is covered right now. Yes BDI will matter for 2010 and beyond, but I am not looking at buying this and holding for three years. I plan on holding through June of this year. But even if BDI did matter, it is certainly improving from the 400-700 range their last report was at. You stated, BDI matters because contracts could be canceled. Well until that happens, I think it's silly to think like that. Plus at 98% of chartered time full, wouldn't they be in a better position to handle a situation like this? Unless all the contracts get canceled at the same time, I think this is a huge non-issue. Every argument you seemed to make regarding why Paragon is being held back seems like it would apply to EXM, DRYS and the other Shippers way more than PRGN. Yet I have seen the other Shippers sky-rocket this past month while Paragon flounders. The difference: Paragon is trying their best to push a ton of their shares into the public right now. You can choose to not believe that, but I guess we will know soon enough when they release their 1st quarter results. Yes I am being stubborn here because I have not seen anything credible that tells me I am taking a big risk with PRGN. What price do you think it will be leading up to the earnings report? You expect it lower? I think this is among the safest stock picks to make right now and feel confident it will be significantly higher when I move my shares in a few months.If the after-market numbers hold, I am already +500 in this investment and I think it's just getting started.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Date Acquired Quantity Cost per Share Closing Mkt Value Cost Net Change Net Change %

04/30/2009 300.0000 $3.28 $1,029.00 $983.00 $46.00 4.68%

04/30/2009 700.0000 $3.25 $2,401.00 $2,273.60 $127.40 5.60%

04/30/2009 1,000.0000 $3.27 $3,430.00 $3,266.00 $164.00 5.02%

Didn't catch this before, but strange that first 1000 share lot was bought at a 3 cent share price difference.

 
stubby said:
So you're completely ignoring all the red flags I pointed out on this stock.....good luck to you then. I actually hope you're right, for your financial well-being.
Your red flags made no sense to me at all. Namely:1. Oversupply of ships - Definitely not true for the short term as 6 million dwt were sold for scrap already this year. Most of the big Dry Shippers either delayed or defaulted on ships they would take in 2009. Some ships could come in play as the year winds out, but I expect Q1 and Q2 to have similar number of ships (between 225 and 250 ships).

27% of the current fleet (112 dwt) is over 21 years old. As new ships come online, I suspect we will see more and more of these older ships retired.

2. Money supply - Paragon restructured all of their debt so they only owe between 10M - 15M per quarter through 2011. They will easily be able to pay this expense. This restructuring also saved them lots of money as they originally owed 204M balloon payment in 2010 Q4 that is now wiped out.

I am pretty sure my financial well-being will be ok here whether this turns out profitable or not. I see very limited downside from current PRGN prices and tons of upside.
Again, you're being stubborn, and looking at everything short-term, blaming everything on dilution. My previous posts were merely outlying why BDI does matter to Paragon, and several other factors why the stock isn't "trading where you think it should be," attempting to give you some insight as to what other people trading in the industry are looking at. I even wished you success, and now you've come back all snippy with me just because I was trying to share with you some information. :lmao:
Are these the same guys that run the mutual funds that are only 10% effective in beating the general market?Or are they the guys who had most people invested in stocks during this last crash?

Point me to the ones that have publicly posted their trades showing them turning $100K into $150K in about 4 months.

 
Stubby - any more thoughts on PRGN besides your earlier 2 comments?

What's probably being priced into the stock is the uncertainty their "locked-in" bids will hold. BDI absolutely still affects them, as some of their contracts could be renegotiated early, or companies might simply break their contracts, and Paragon possibly unable to recapture any/all losses.
Not everyone trading the stock is looking at it from a short-term perspective like you. Earnings aren't the only underlying component of a company's stock price. Perhaps the contract pricing I already mentioned, combined with the uncertainty that reducing the dividend payments will only cover its 2010 obligations, and the potential oversuppy in ships from ALL dry-bulk shippers, all lend basis to the stock price not jumping through the roof currently.
 
Oil Futures right now. Shockingly, it's headed higher. I do think the rest of the market looks like it's headed up though too (based on Asian markets). Hopefully my Paragon stays lower in the morning so I can get fully invested into it.

CLM09.NYM Crude Oil Jun 09 - 53.47

CLN09.NYM Crude Oil Jul 09 - 54.88

CLQ09.NYM Crude Oil Aug 09 - 56.05

CLU09.NYM Crude Oil Sep 09 - 57.02

CLV09.NYM Crude Oil Oct 09 - 57.73

CLX09.NYM - Crude Oil Nov 09 - 58.68

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Bought 500 SCO at 29.24. This seems like a steal.
curious what the trade is here tommorrow. Waiting for 31.50, or dumping before 10 no matter what?
Oil is up right now in the Pre-market. But I still expet some movement this week to be ok here.
I hope so, I had a sell order, "Good til cancelled" at 3.00 and was able to unload everything at a .40 profit per share (extremally lucky to get it at the day/week high - all while I was sleeping.) I'm hoping to re-enter again later this week around 2.75'ish. I'm also very interested in PRGN.
 
It looks like most are mid May. Specifically PRGN May 18 after market, SBLK May 16 after market.

Please note: these can be delayed up to 5 days without filing paperwork....I think.

ETA - I used a yahoo finance search feature:

http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html
Those dates are MARCH dates, not May dayes. That was for the previous quarter.
My bad...I was searching for other equities I hold and ma just jumped out....sorry
 
that's cool. I'm just worried that if next quarter is 3 months after the one they just reported, then we are looking at mid to late june?

 
that's cool. I'm just worried that if next quarter is 3 months after the one they just reported, then we are looking at mid to late june?
My only other suggestion would be to contact Investor Relations for PRGN or maybe your brokerage.OCNF released Q4 2008 data mid March and according to the Yahoo, will release data for Q1 2009 next week. IIRC, the same was true for FREE...but I sold that haven't been following.
 
I'm just sitting on all cash now. I'm gonna wait for some shade of red on my ticker before I get back in.

 
Volume again going nuts on Paragon. I am looking to re-enter and add another 10,000 shares soon. Was hoping it would dip below 3.65, but that does not look like it will be the case.

For giggles, look at the YTD chart for Paragon. Now compare that to every other Dry Shipper (All of the others, the current price is real close to the YTD. The one exception is DRYS which radically altered their books with dilution, bad earnings, etc). Paragon YTD high was $6. I am loading up and ready for the wave to hit after this dilution finishes.

Loving that I got 5,000 shares Friday at 3.40

 
Volume again going nuts on Paragon. I am looking to re-enter and add another 10,000 shares soon. Was hoping it would dip below 3.65, but that does not look like it will be the case.For giggles, look at the YTD chart for Paragon. Now compare that to every other Dry Shipper (All of the others, the current price is real close to the YTD. The one exception is DRYS which radically altered their books with dilution, bad earnings, etc). Paragon YTD high was $6. I am loading up and ready for the wave to hit after this dilution finishes.Loving that I got 5,000 shares Friday at 3.40
You still selling at 4.25, or you think this ship will sail past that?
 
Volume again going nuts on Paragon. I am looking to re-enter and add another 10,000 shares soon. Was hoping it would dip below 3.65, but that does not look like it will be the case.For giggles, look at the YTD chart for Paragon. Now compare that to every other Dry Shipper (All of the others, the current price is real close to the YTD. The one exception is DRYS which radically altered their books with dilution, bad earnings, etc). Paragon YTD high was $6. I am loading up and ready for the wave to hit after this dilution finishes.Loving that I got 5,000 shares Friday at 3.40
You still selling at 4.25, or you think this ship will sail past that?
I think it's going to sell past it. I am going to hold these until the earnings report. I am starting to think this is the "biggie event" for the year for me. I definitely think 6.0 is possible by the time they release earnings.
 
Volume again going nuts on Paragon. I am looking to re-enter and add another 10,000 shares soon. Was hoping it would dip below 3.65, but that does not look like it will be the case.For giggles, look at the YTD chart for Paragon. Now compare that to every other Dry Shipper (All of the others, the current price is real close to the YTD. The one exception is DRYS which radically altered their books with dilution, bad earnings, etc). Paragon YTD high was $6. I am loading up and ready for the wave to hit after this dilution finishes.Loving that I got 5,000 shares Friday at 3.40
You still selling at 4.25, or you think this ship will sail past that?
I think it's going to sell past it. I am going to hold these until the earnings report. I am starting to think this is the "biggie event" for the year for me. I definitely think 6.0 is possible by the time they release earnings.
I got in last Friday at $3.39, so I like your optimism on this one.
 
I want a little piece of this action....bought 2000 PRGN at $3.71....watch it tank now.
You are fine. But look out if I step to the table and place a bet.Update. I am standing at the table with chips in hand.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Bought 500 SCO at 29.24. This seems like a steal.
Wow you caught a nice price. I'm in at $29.47We are both good here I think. I saw it hit 29.12 on my screen right after I pressed the button on a market order, but was happy with anything below 29.40. I think we will see this jump up nicely either by the close or by Monday morning.
I got porked as I am in at 400 * $29.56
Sold @ 28.48 ($470).Now siting at ($60) on my "trade money".

In for $2K PRGN @ $3.69

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top