stubby said:
So you're completely ignoring all the red flags I pointed out on this stock.....good luck to you then. I actually hope you're right, for your financial well-being.
Your red flags made no sense to me at all. Namely:1. Oversupply of ships - Definitely not true for the short term as 6 million dwt were sold for scrap already this year. Most of the big Dry Shippers either delayed or defaulted on ships they would take in 2009. Some ships could come in play as the year winds out, but I expect Q1 and Q2 to have similar number of ships (between 225 and 250 ships).
27% of the current fleet (112 dwt) is over 21 years old. As new ships come online, I suspect we will see more and more of these older ships retired.
2. Money supply - Paragon restructured all of their debt so they only owe between 10M - 15M per quarter through 2011. They will easily be able to pay this expense. This restructuring also saved them lots of money as they originally owed 204M balloon payment in 2010 Q4 that is now wiped out.
I am pretty sure my financial well-being will be ok here whether this turns out profitable or not. I see very limited downside from current PRGN prices and tons of upside.