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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (4 Viewers)

siffoin said:
Well I got filled on 2 (out of 10 contracts) on the UNG synthetic stock @$.25. Essentially long UNG 200 shares for $50. I'm trying to get in lower on the 8 other contracts.
So you are only risking $50 on 200 shares of UNG but in order to make $ UNG has to get to some level (strike price?) before some date or you lose the $50. Do I have that right? You can also sell the contracts to someone else before the options expiration date, right?
No! Just like a person long stock I actually have $14 of risk (total risk = $14 x 200 shares = $2800)...that's if UNG goes to $0.00. I'm long calls, AND short puts...so if UNG goes down...the long calls lose their value while the short puts gain in value. My bet is just the opposite...I hope UNG rises in value and the long calls go up in value while the short puts lose value. If on Jan expiration UNG is at 21...the 14 call will be worth $7.00...and the 14 puts will be worthless.Basically Synthetic Stock is dollar for dollar just like going long stock. If UNG goes up $1.00 I make $1.00. If it goes down $1.00 I lose $1.00. The only difference is that the Synthetic Stock has an "end date"...Jan 2010. Where long stock can be held forever. The cost for me to enter this is significantly less than going long stock. Going long 200 shares would have cost $2800...in the synthetic stock play the cost for those 200 shares was only $50. If UNG goes to $21...the person who is long stock at $14 would make $1400...a profit of 50%. Dang good. In this case I'd also make $1400, but % wise my gain would be 2800%...much better.Can I close this position out at anytime? Yes. To do that I would sell the calls and buy the puts. Because the play is at the same strike premium burn (time decay) will be close to the same for both the puts and calls moving forward. The gain/loss from this point forward (till Jan 2010) is $ for $. Meaning if UNG goes to 16 tomorrow my gain is $2.00 x 200 shares or $400...and I could close the position with that gain at my discretion.
 
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siffoin said:
Well I got filled on 2 (out of 10 contracts) on the UNG synthetic stock @$.25. Essentially long UNG 200 shares for $50. I'm trying to get in lower on the 8 other contracts.
So you are only risking $50 on 200 shares of UNG but in order to make $ UNG has to get to some level (strike price?) before some date or you lose the $50. Do I have that right? You can also sell the contracts to someone else before the options expiration date, right?
No! Just like a person long stock I actually have $14 of risk (total risk = $14 x 200 shares = $2800)...that's if UNG goes to $0.00. I'm long calls, AND short puts...so if UNG goes down...the long calls lose their value while the short puts gain in value. My bet is just the opposite...I hope UNG rises in value and the long calls go up in value while the short puts lose value. If on Jan expiration UNG is at 21...the 14 call will be worth $7.00...and the 14 puts will be worthless.Basically Synthetic Stock is dollar for dollar just like going long stock. If UNG goes up $1.00 I make $1.00. If it goes down $1.00 I lose $1.00. The only difference is that the Synthetic Stock has an "end date"...Jan 2010. Where long stock can be held forever. The cost for me to enter this is significantly less than going long stock. Going long 200 shares would have cost $2800...in the synthetic stock play the cost for those 200 shares was only $50. If UNG goes to $21...the person who is long stock at $14 would make $1400...a profit of 50%. Dang good. In this case I'd also make $1400, but % wise my gain would be 2800%...much better.Can I close this position out at anytime? Yes. To do that I would sell the calls and buy the puts. Because the play is at the same strike premium burn (time decay) will be close to the same for both the puts and calls moving forward. The gain/loss from this point forward (till Jan 2010) is $ for $. Meaning if UNG goes to 16 tomorrow my gain is $2.00 x 200 shares or $400...and I could close the position with that gain at my discretion.
Are you playing these at equal values of puts and calls or are you on the long side predominantly? Or, is what you are doing more of a middling process? I have written protective puts after seeing a position move up substantially and this doesn't seem the same as that.
 
I'm new to this site and just wanted to give props, kudos, high-fives, etc. to all the people who have contibuted in this thread. Mr. Dodds, or Mr. Money should i say.......AWESOME JOB!!! Thanks for paragon. Thanks to KGB, Heb and AGEN both made me some decent coin. Still holding heb for 500 shares too after making back my buy in. I hope to contribute some worthwhile information and look forward to making some dough with all of you. Just wanted to say thanks to everyone.

If we put dodds and gooroo in the same room together, we might not ever have to work again. :sarcasm:

 
For those people who love technical analysis, look at this chart and change the view to 3 months:

UNG Chart

Tracking the lows:

April 29th - 13.01

May 27th - 13.72

Today - 14.17

If 14.17 ends up being the low here, the chart starts to look extremely clean as the rollercoaster ends up with a higher low each time (and the days of the swing are tightening too). I am not a big chartist, but I think this is a classic break out scenario.

 
St. Louis Bob said:
BR33ZE said:
St. Louis Bob said:
In for 2300 FAZ at $4.30.
oof
:thumbup: The treasury is selling 15&30 year bonds tomorrow. I don't think anybody (hello China!) is going to be buying them and that will send the market down. :lmao:
You are smarter than this...
:lmao: We'll see
I like FAZ at these levels too, but I am probably going to avoid it. I don't sleep well knowing I am holding FAZ...lol
 
siffoin said:
Well I got filled on 2 (out of 10 contracts) on the UNG synthetic stock @$.25. Essentially long UNG 200 shares for $50. I'm trying to get in lower on the 8 other contracts.
So you are only risking $50 on 200 shares of UNG but in order to make $ UNG has to get to some level (strike price?) before some date or you lose the $50. Do I have that right? You can also sell the contracts to someone else before the options expiration date, right?
No! Just like a person long stock I actually have $14 of risk (total risk = $14 x 200 shares = $2800)...that's if UNG goes to $0.00. I'm long calls, AND short puts...so if UNG goes down...the long calls lose their value while the short puts gain in value. My bet is just the opposite...I hope UNG rises in value and the long calls go up in value while the short puts lose value. If on Jan expiration UNG is at 21...the 14 call will be worth $7.00...and the 14 puts will be worthless.Basically Synthetic Stock is dollar for dollar just like going long stock. If UNG goes up $1.00 I make $1.00. If it goes down $1.00 I lose $1.00. The only difference is that the Synthetic Stock has an "end date"...Jan 2010. Where long stock can be held forever. The cost for me to enter this is significantly less than going long stock. Going long 200 shares would have cost $2800...in the synthetic stock play the cost for those 200 shares was only $50. If UNG goes to $21...the person who is long stock at $14 would make $1400...a profit of 50%. Dang good. In this case I'd also make $1400, but % wise my gain would be 2800%...much better.Can I close this position out at anytime? Yes. To do that I would sell the calls and buy the puts. Because the play is at the same strike premium burn (time decay) will be close to the same for both the puts and calls moving forward. The gain/loss from this point forward (till Jan 2010) is $ for $. Meaning if UNG goes to 16 tomorrow my gain is $2.00 x 200 shares or $400...and I could close the position with that gain at my discretion.
Are you playing these at equal values of puts and calls or are you on the long side predominantly? Or, is what you are doing more of a middling process? I have written protective puts after seeing a position move up substantially and this doesn't seem the same as that.
He is basically selling downside protection (the sold puts) to pay for his long bet. (the purchased calls). This is an unhedged long position.
 
GPRE continues its slide down today. I am hoping for a continuation down to the $5 range...depending on oil prices and volume traded I want to get back in on another rise. Volume was way up on the ride to $9, but has since receded. The GPRE chart.

 
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Hemispherex just filed to issue up to $150MM of stock. Initial reaction AH is dropping HEB to $2.75.

DOW JONES NEWSWIRESHemispherx Biopharma Inc. (HEB) on Tuesday registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell from time to time up to $150 million of common stock, preferred stock, debt securities and warrants.The specialty pharmaceutical company said it intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes.No underwriters were listed in the filing.Shares of the company closed Tuesday at $2.84 each, down 21 cents, or 6.89%.(END) Dow Jones Newswires06-09-09 1715ETCopyright © 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
So what does this mean when the company files to issue when they're supposed to hear from the FDA any day now?
 
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Hemispherex just filed to issue up to $150MM of stock. Initial reaction AH is dropping HEB to $2.75.

DOW JONES NEWSWIRESHemispherx Biopharma Inc. (HEB) on Tuesday registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell from time to time up to $150 million of common stock, preferred stock, debt securities and warrants.The specialty pharmaceutical company said it intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes.No underwriters were listed in the filing.Shares of the company closed Tuesday at $2.84 each, down 21 cents, or 6.89%.(END) Dow Jones Newswires06-09-09 1715ETCopyright © 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
So what does this mean when the company files to issue when they're supposed to hear from the FDA any day now?
My opinion only....I think it means it's going to get accepted. They know they can dilute now and they want the cash on board to make them a tougher takeover target. With cash, they also have more options to bring the drug to market (instead of just selling it off to a Merck, etc)
 
Hemispherex just filed to issue up to $150MM of stock. Initial reaction AH is dropping HEB to $2.75.

DOW JONES NEWSWIRESHemispherx Biopharma Inc. (HEB) on Tuesday registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell from time to time up to $150 million of common stock, preferred stock, debt securities and warrants.The specialty pharmaceutical company said it intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes.No underwriters were listed in the filing.Shares of the company closed Tuesday at $2.84 each, down 21 cents, or 6.89%.(END) Dow Jones Newswires06-09-09 1715ETCopyright © 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
So what does this mean when the company files to issue when they're supposed to hear from the FDA any day now?
My opinion only....I think it means it's going to get accepted. They know they can dilute now and they want the cash on board to make them a tougher takeover target. With cash, they also have more options to bring the drug to market (instead of just selling it off to a Merck, etc)
Agreed. If they know or suspect that the FDA will reject Ampligen, they should know that the stock will fall back to 50 cents. At that point, they'd have to be desperate for cash & funding to dilute shares.
 
siffoin said:
Well I got filled on 2 (out of 10 contracts) on the UNG synthetic stock @$.25. Essentially long UNG 200 shares for $50. I'm trying to get in lower on the 8 other contracts.
So you are only risking $50 on 200 shares of UNG but in order to make $ UNG has to get to some level (strike price?) before some date or you lose the $50. Do I have that right? You can also sell the contracts to someone else before the options expiration date, right?
No! Just like a person long stock I actually have $14 of risk (total risk = $14 x 200 shares = $2800)...that's if UNG goes to $0.00. I'm long calls, AND short puts...so if UNG goes down...the long calls lose their value while the short puts gain in value. My bet is just the opposite...I hope UNG rises in value and the long calls go up in value while the short puts lose value. If on Jan expiration UNG is at 21...the 14 call will be worth $7.00...and the 14 puts will be worthless.Basically Synthetic Stock is dollar for dollar just like going long stock. If UNG goes up $1.00 I make $1.00. If it goes down $1.00 I lose $1.00. The only difference is that the Synthetic Stock has an "end date"...Jan 2010. Where long stock can be held forever. The cost for me to enter this is significantly less than going long stock. Going long 200 shares would have cost $2800...in the synthetic stock play the cost for those 200 shares was only $50. If UNG goes to $21...the person who is long stock at $14 would make $1400...a profit of 50%. Dang good. In this case I'd also make $1400, but % wise my gain would be 2800%...much better.

Can I close this position out at anytime? Yes. To do that I would sell the calls and buy the puts. Because the play is at the same strike premium burn (time decay) will be close to the same for both the puts and calls moving forward. The gain/loss from this point forward (till Jan 2010) is $ for $. Meaning if UNG goes to 16 tomorrow my gain is $2.00 x 200 shares or $400...and I could close the position with that gain at my discretion.
Are you playing these at equal values of puts and calls or are you on the long side predominantly? Or, is what you are doing more of a middling process? I have written protective puts after seeing a position move up substantially and this doesn't seem the same as that.
He is basically selling downside protection (the sold puts) to pay for his long bet. (the purchased calls). This is an unhedged long position.
Not "basically"...that is exactly what I am doing/did. As None more Black states...this is an unhedged position...in the same way that long stock without a protective put in place is an unhedged position. The risk is EXACTLY the same as long stock. You put on this kind of trade if it is a position you think you will be in for 4-6 months...not as a long term position in an investment portfolio.So here is how the trade went down:

Bought 2 UNG Jan 2010 14 Calls for $2.98.

Sold 2 UNG Jan 2010 14 Puts for $2.73.

Total debit was $.25 per contract x 2 or $50 + commission.

Using ThinkorSwim the trade can be entered as a single position...so I set the price ($.25) and the position filled as a single order...fill or kill.

 
Hemispherex just filed to issue up to $150MM of stock. Initial reaction AH is dropping HEB to $2.75.

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Hemispherx Biopharma Inc. (HEB) on Tuesday registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission to sell from time to time up to $150 million of common stock, preferred stock, debt securities and warrants.

The specialty pharmaceutical company said it intends to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes.

No underwriters were listed in the filing.

Shares of the company closed Tuesday at $2.84 each, down 21 cents, or 6.89%.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-09-09 1715ET

Copyright © 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
So what does this mean when the company files to issue when they're supposed to hear from the FDA any day now?
My opinion only....I think it means it's going to get accepted. They know they can dilute now and they want the cash on board to make them a tougher takeover target. With cash, they also have more options to bring the drug to market (instead of just selling it off to a Merck, etc)
Agreed. If they know or suspect that the FDA will reject Ampligen, they should know that the stock will fall back to 50 cents. At that point, they'd have to be desperate for cash & funding to dilute shares.
http://finance.google.com/group/google.fin...1be05f4c?hl=en#Looks like the SEC doc link too

 
Geez...there is there a stock out there not flooding the market with additional shares? Where is all this money coming from?

 
Just out. As a new owner of UNG, I beleive I must root for a ban, less supply and higher prices.

UPDATE: Industry Warns Bill May Halt Natural Gas Development

(Updates with industry comment and background)

By Ian Talley

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- U.S. lawmakers Tuesday unveiled a bill that industry warns could prevent development of trillions of cubic feet of natural gas by putting regulation of a key production technique under federal oversight.

It is unclear how much support the proposal could get in Congress or from the White House, but the oil and natural-gas industry has already geared up for a fight to oppose the provision given its potential impact on the sector.

 
Is there a clear reason I'm missing that many of you have chosen CHK over UNG? I'm just starting research on this, but is there something to this ETF that limits its short or long term upside? Is CHK, as a single company, a more immediate upside play?
Here's my buddy's response:
I think the maximum long term value of nat gas is logistically $12 orso. I think more likely it'll settle around $7.50-9 range over thenext 5 years. CHK is about a double as well I'd say, but look attheir gas reserves. the reproduction value of even the proved assetssupports the current price, and the proved reserves are supposed toincrease from 12 - 20 trillion cubic feet by end of 2010 (just fromdrilling and thereby "proving" the gas is in the ground with >90%likelihood). that doesn't value their unproven reserves which areridiculously ridiculously huge. like crazy reserve volume. so youcan support a double easily by just looking at the proved reserves atthese levels (use 30% of NYMEX to get your value of a proved thousandcubic feet in the ground).long story short, you can make an argument that CHK is worth upwardsof $70/75 a share if you factor in the reproduction value of thereserve base, the midstream business and all the other assets.they're crushed becuase of nat gas obviously, but also because they'reso highly leveraged. UNG is a fine investment too. i expect themeach to move simultaneously, but the upside on CHK is higher in myopinion. to say nothing of the inability for an ETF to exactlyreplicate the moves in nat gas as it is. i'm in both anyway.- Show quoted text -
 
I actually think HEB gets approved in the pre-market, but if that's not the case, I am buying 10,000 shares at or near these levels.

 
Actually after reading through all the posts over at Yahoo, I am going to stay on the sidelines with HEB. I am now leaning towards this not being approved this second (although I think the report will be extremely favorable and the drug will get approved soon)

 
Actually after reading through all the posts over at Yahoo, I am going to stay on the sidelines with HEB. I am now leaning towards this not being approved this second (although I think the report will be extremely favorable and the drug will get approved soon)
although i think the yahoo mess board is about the worst thing to do research on. I certainly wouldnt recommend that big of a bet. If it doesnt get approved youre looking at opening the next day at .50please remember this is a bet.
 
Beautiful chart on UNG

Look at the accumulation graphic (advances less declines). Volumes is up and MMs are buying. This thing is going to pop real big real soon. The question is just how high it goes.

 
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This HEB stuff is makin' me somewhat nervous. It sounds like it will be approved too, but who knows. I'm in for 800 shares, not as much as some of you would be, but I'm willing to risk it based on what I've seen. Go HEB, hope there's some news soon.

 
I also am going to take a healthy position in DBB tomorrow. I am convinced base metals (aluminum) are heading way higher.
I am so bearish and want to short the #### out of this market. And yet I see tons of stuff that look so strong and that perhaps, I should be looking to buy. Anyway, I have been looking at UNG for a couple of weeks and obviously it has picked up the attention of some of those around here.Then you mentioned aluminum and I came across Century Aluminum (CENX). The chart is very intriguing. The stock is trading at 6.25 with a nice level of support in the 6.00 range. I am probably going to look to get into this stock. I think you can dollar cost down to about the 5.50 range if it dips.I am about ready to throw in the towel on my NOC short. Not moving the way I want it to in a timely fashion and have a lot of capital tied up in it.Anyway...back to CENX. I am thinking of aggressively playing it and leaning against the 6.00 number. If I were to buy I would try to get it around 6.15 in decent size and use a tight stop or play it conservatively and average cost into it down to the 5.50 level.
 
One more stock worth mentioning along the lines of aluminum. You guys might want to take a look at Gammon Gold (GRS) if you are looking for another metal/commodity play.

Stock just broke out above 8.00 on a nice cup and handle breakout. I will probably look to get long this stock as well.

 
It seems to me, that "they" really don't want you in the game of options. "They" make it seem confusing to keep average joe out of this game. A little knowledge on the subject, patience, and luck could give you significant returns on smaller investments. Who doesn't like that?

Options are great for the small investor. I want to emphasize that they are the most speculative and riskiest of investments. Especially with what i do primarily which is "uncovered calls". Uncovered means that i do not own any shares of the stock. A covered call means i own the stock and can use them as basically a colateral against option.

Terms you need to know:

One option "leg" is equal to 100 shares of stock.

Premium: the price you pay for option. Example: Xyz stock sells for 40 dollars. SEptember 40 calls are 5 dollars each. 1 leg = 100 shares so you pay 500 dollars for the leg. We now need xyz to be at 45 dollars to cash.

Strike price: the price you are taking stock at (plus premium). The stirke price in above example is 40.

In the money option: stock is already at strike price (whatever fluctuations in stock price usually reflected immediately on option). The above example is what is considered an in the money option. Even though theoretically, it is at the money, not in. You really in fact are still out of the money as you need the premium to be covered as well at 5 dollars a share.

Out of the money option: stock is not at strike price and needs to move up to be in the money. xyz company is at 35 dollars. Buying the september 40 calls is out of the money at present. The most speculative of plays but when you hit, returns of 200 to 1000% are possible in time.

A site i recommend (its free so i'm not pimping anything) where you can experiment play around and educate yourself is Investopedia.com. Great simulator and a way to learn all about options. A very useful tool for beginners and a great testing ground for what you think might work.

Options have many different uses. Protecting a positive position is a great hedge. There are so many advanced strategies with these (butterflys, straddles, etc,) that it is important to know how to use them. Take the time to educate yourself. You'll be so glad you did.

I'll continue to write more if people are interested.

One point i'd like to make about why i like options so much. I could personallly not buy into mega cap stocks like google, bidu, cme, goldman, etc. They cost way too much money for a small investor. If i had 4k to invest in google, i could pick up almost 10 shares. If it goes up 10 bucks i make 100 dollars. If i were able to pick up an in the money option leg for that 4k, well, i would have 10 bucks a share X100 =1000. It is the extrapolating factor of X100 that makes options so lucrative, and so risky.

Another quick point about options. The second you buy your option you are essentially turning over a hourglass. Unlike buying the stock where you have unlimited time, these expire and thus "on the clock" immediatley. Be very careful in the allotment time you give yourself and be realistic with numbers you think the company can achieve. Don't overreach unless you are buying options on the real cheap (to me, less than a buck a leg). That being said, you can make some serious coin(or lose it) playing options for the month we are in currently if you have a good sense where stock is going short term. The longer you look down the road on options, the more you will pay for options. Current month options always the cheapest.

Will continue later.

Sidenote to all the faz players. Personally, i think you would be better off playing SDS, Qid, SKF, etc. instead of that pile of dung. Just my 2 cents.

 
Looking to join in on Chesapeake Energy corp. with all of you. I'm looking at buying 5 october 21 calls (in the money option) selling for 2.20. i put my bid in at 2.00 and hope it triggers. 1k investment. Taking all profit on the upside of 23. I think Otis's friends numbers are realistic and 30 can be achieved by october. When, not if...lol.. we hit our number, i'll take 2 or 3 legs off the table and let the remainder run.

If it is up after the opening bell, i will go up to 2.25 an option if i have too.

edit: Sorry my bad. Above quote was for june 21 calls. Forgot to switch screen back to october. October 21 calls have a bid of 4.30 and an ask of 4.50. Set an order in of 5 legs at 4.25 for an investment total of 2125.

 
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USD Index is back to 79 handle. Throw all your charts away, all you need is the USD chart and you will know where the market is headed. Everything is headed higher today.

 
That site seems to be a few days behind. I checked it about an hour ago and the last approval was for ROCEPHIN KIT (NDA # 050585) dated 6/7/09. Just checked it again and now it has CALCITONIN-SALMON (ANDA # 076979) dated 6/8/09.
The latest info will be athttp://www.fda.gov/Drugs/NewsEvents/ucm130961.htm

PS The FDA always waits a day - after notifying company - before posting.

 
That site seems to be a few days behind. I checked it about an hour ago and the last approval was for ROCEPHIN KIT (NDA # 050585) dated 6/7/09. Just checked it again and now it has CALCITONIN-SALMON (ANDA # 076979) dated 6/8/09.
The latest info will be athttp://www.fda.gov/Drugs/NewsEvents/ucm130961.htm

PS The FDA always waits a day - after notifying company - before posting.
I asked earlier in the thread and didn't get an answer. I even called the FDA and they were very unhelpful :goodposting: . But my question is do they post or publish unapprovals? I don't see any on the site linked, so how do we know HEB wasn't unapproved weeks or months ago?
 
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