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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Cromedog
Footballguy
CENX News
Davenport analyst says, "We are increasing our '09 LME cash price forecast to $1,500/mt ($0.68/lb) from $1,455/mt ($0.66/lb). The increase is due to the recent run up in prices rather than any improvement in the fundamentals. The fundamentals remain extremely weak. We are maintaining our '10 and '11 price forecasts of $1,850/mt ($0.84/lb) and $2,100/mt (0.95/lb) respectively. The aluminum market should move from surplus in '09 to deficits in '10 and '11. Our long-run price forecast also is unchanged at $2,400/mt ($1.09/lb).� We are increasing our '09 EPS estimate for Century to ($3.36) from ($3.72). Our Q2 EPS estimate is now ($0.81), up from ($0.94). We are tweaking estimates thereafter based mostly on updated exchange rates. Our '10 EPS estimate goes to ($0.78) from ($0.55)...With CENX at $7.81/sh there is ~22% potential upside to our target. This is enough upside to maintain our Buy rating. In the near term, however, the major risk in our view is that aluminum prices correct after having a strong rally over the past few weeks. Any correction would likely take CENX lower. Longer term, we are comfortable recommending that investors buy CENX."
Davenport analyst says, "We are increasing our '09 LME cash price forecast to $1,500/mt ($0.68/lb) from $1,455/mt ($0.66/lb). The increase is due to the recent run up in prices rather than any improvement in the fundamentals. The fundamentals remain extremely weak. We are maintaining our '10 and '11 price forecasts of $1,850/mt ($0.84/lb) and $2,100/mt (0.95/lb) respectively. The aluminum market should move from surplus in '09 to deficits in '10 and '11. Our long-run price forecast also is unchanged at $2,400/mt ($1.09/lb).� We are increasing our '09 EPS estimate for Century to ($3.36) from ($3.72). Our Q2 EPS estimate is now ($0.81), up from ($0.94). We are tweaking estimates thereafter based mostly on updated exchange rates. Our '10 EPS estimate goes to ($0.78) from ($0.55)...With CENX at $7.81/sh there is ~22% potential upside to our target. This is enough upside to maintain our Buy rating. In the near term, however, the major risk in our view is that aluminum prices correct after having a strong rally over the past few weeks. Any correction would likely take CENX lower. Longer term, we are comfortable recommending that investors buy CENX."
iowa clubbers
Footballguy
Added 1000 PRGN @ $4.29 Will add another 1000 if dips below $4.10
siffoin
Footballguy
consider writing the July 14 call.
siffoin
Footballguy
One might consider the idea that the last 12 weeks have been the correction...and we soon resume the LT trend.
optionmaven
Footballguy
I was thinking the same thing and said it a few pages back. If, this flatline that most of my positions have been doing over the last month is any indicator. Most of the moves i have made recently are on a southward short term trend. A little worrisome, but most are August and September calls and i fully expect said correction to be complete by that time. The only move i have made in June that is working is UNG. I did buy a google call on June 1st for 2K and sold it for 3.2K on June 4th. Other than that score, my portfolio is looking a little lean. I have one option leg on X which has incurred a 2 day beat down going from a 500 profit to 100. Siff, i will be looking to switch about 10k out of my current account (zecco, i use them because i'm cheap....4.50 trades and 50 cent per leg.) into think or swim so i can enjoy benefits of writing calls and puts. If i were to do so, would you get a bonus at all? Not that you are looking for one, but if you can get a few bucks out of it, i'm all about it. I will be looking to do this later this month or next month. I want to practice it a bit before i implement it.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
VIX Climbs Most in 8 Weeks as Oil Drops, Manufacturing Shrinks
By Jeff Kearns
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- The benchmark index for U.S. stock options jumped the most in eight weeks as oil and metals prices slid and a report showed manufacturing in the New York area was weaker than expected. European options gauges also advanced.
The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, jumped 8.7 percent to 30.60 at 11:35 a.m. in New York and earlier topped 9 percent. The index measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
The U.S. equity benchmark fell 2.6 percent, the most since May 13, as commodity producers dropped on lower oil and metal prices and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said manufacturing shrank at a faster pace in June, signaling the economy may still be months away from a sustained recovery.
The VIX has averaged about 20 over its 19-year history. It peaked at 80.86 in November and dipped below 30 in May for the first time in eight months. The index reached an intraday record of 89.53 on Oct. 24.
VIX futures expiring through the end of this year advanced. July futures added 3.5 percent to 31 while October and September contracts both increased to 31.15.
In Europe, the benchmark gauge of stock-market volatility surged the most since March 2. The VStoxx Index, which measures the cost of protecting against a decline in shares on the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index, gained 13 percent to 31.73 in Frankfurt. The Euro Stoxx 50 stock index lost 3.1 percent.
The U.K.’s FTSE100 Volatility Index and Germany’s VDAX options gauge also increased.
By Jeff Kearns
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- The benchmark index for U.S. stock options jumped the most in eight weeks as oil and metals prices slid and a report showed manufacturing in the New York area was weaker than expected. European options gauges also advanced.
The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, jumped 8.7 percent to 30.60 at 11:35 a.m. in New York and earlier topped 9 percent. The index measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.
The U.S. equity benchmark fell 2.6 percent, the most since May 13, as commodity producers dropped on lower oil and metal prices and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said manufacturing shrank at a faster pace in June, signaling the economy may still be months away from a sustained recovery.
The VIX has averaged about 20 over its 19-year history. It peaked at 80.86 in November and dipped below 30 in May for the first time in eight months. The index reached an intraday record of 89.53 on Oct. 24.
VIX futures expiring through the end of this year advanced. July futures added 3.5 percent to 31 while October and September contracts both increased to 31.15.
In Europe, the benchmark gauge of stock-market volatility surged the most since March 2. The VStoxx Index, which measures the cost of protecting against a decline in shares on the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index, gained 13 percent to 31.73 in Frankfurt. The Euro Stoxx 50 stock index lost 3.1 percent.
The U.K.’s FTSE100 Volatility Index and Germany’s VDAX options gauge also increased.
siffoin
Footballguy
Sweet. PM sent.BTW: You might be mis-interpreting my opinion. What I'm saying is this bull run from March to present might be a corrective phase in a much larger bear market.
Right now:
Daily charts= bullish but high probability of topping/topped. Possible we make a final run toward 980.
Weekly charts= bullish but flat
Monthly Charts = BEARISH
Note: For LT investing I'm bearish...currently, Id change my opinion if the SP500 were to make a monthly close ABOVE 1025 (that number changes every month)...but right here/now we'd need June to close ABOVE 1025 before I'm a LT bull.
Back to trade the mighty mouse last hour.
David Dodds
Administrator
sold 8,000 KERX at $1.07
KGB
Footballguy
Oof. I'm still holding but taking a bad hit. Real bad so far. Any news or are you just out?
David Dodds
Administrator
Thanks. I agree this one way over-corrected - I just put in a market order for 500 shares.
David Dodds
Administrator
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Anyone taking a peak at ACAS - American Capital?
Their diversification is appealing and they recently announced a cash/stock dividend offering that has catapulted their NAV up.
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.67
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.86
Price/Book (mrq): 0.30
50-Day Moving Average3: 3.19
200-Day Moving Average3: 2.90
Dividend Ex Date: Jun-18-2009
Fair Value: $12-20 pps
Their diversification is appealing and they recently announced a cash/stock dividend offering that has catapulted their NAV up.
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.67
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.86
Price/Book (mrq): 0.30
50-Day Moving Average3: 3.19
200-Day Moving Average3: 2.90
Dividend Ex Date: Jun-18-2009
Fair Value: $12-20 pps
David Dodds
Administrator
1,000 FEED tripped at 6.07. This seems like easy money.
David Dodds
Administrator
Bought 500 SLV at $13.85
siffoin
Footballguy
Me too...Long 100 synthetic shares @ $0.00. Will try to add 400 more for a credit.Edit: bought (long) Jan 2010 14 calls - and sold (short) Jan 2010 14 puts.
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pchamp
Footballguy
Do you ever do regular buys or is it always a better play to pick up the synthetic stock?
David Dodds
Administrator
Out of HEB at 2.75. I expected a bigger pop today and then just wanted out before the market close. May buy back in tomorrow.
Random
Footballguy
But the FDA announcement is coming AH!!!!11!11one!1
I don't want to speak for sif b/c i am just learning this, but the options are more subject to daily swings and that allows you to get a better price. SLV is down 5% or so, but the option chain might be down 20-40% depending on the stake price and expiration
siffoin
Footballguy
Sometimes...I write puts...and the stock gets put to me and for a time I am long stock.In general my feeling is this: If the position is going to be held for less than 1 year...Why would I pay $1385 for 100 shares of stock when I can pay $0...or even be paid to take on the position...especially when the risk is $ for $ the same?
Shouldn't have used the term correction. Meant a retest of the Feb lows. All I know is that I just got my account cleared to start shorting, may not have come at a better time.
The Ref
Footballguy
Your 1 press clip on the news away from a huge return.[Geithner on Stage in China] - Don't worry your safe in US treasuries, we are not going to pass a 2 Trillion dollar health plan on the government dime.[Chinese Students] - Ahhhhhahahahahahahhahahahaah!Silver up 50%
Alias
Footballguy
bought some ECH @ 45.10 earlier this morning, looked like it was going sideways, closed at 45.61 (+1.1%)going to hold this for a while
SIDA!
Footballguy
For those looking for a good contrarian indicator, I covered my one lot of NOC today at 47.50. Feel free to short this market now!
In all seriousness, I covered not because I'm bullish. But I was tired of it taking so much of my capital in my lil account. And finally I had to pull the "time stop" card instead of a price stop.
I sold my UNG at 15.45 on the first run up thinking there might be a sell-off as it digested the overhead resistance at 15.50. Looks like that may have backfired.
Lol.
But I took .90 cents out of it on the first run and another 1.20 here. Not bad.
I'm hoping for a pullback and a reentry. It worked last time.
Still long my 200 shares of ABG. Nothing sexy here.
My account is now positive 1,500 bucks.
In all seriousness, I covered not because I'm bullish. But I was tired of it taking so much of my capital in my lil account. And finally I had to pull the "time stop" card instead of a price stop.
I sold my UNG at 15.45 on the first run up thinking there might be a sell-off as it digested the overhead resistance at 15.50. Looks like that may have backfired.
Lol.
But I took .90 cents out of it on the first run and another 1.20 here. Not bad.
I'm hoping for a pullback and a reentry. It worked last time.
Still long my 200 shares of ABG. Nothing sexy here.
My account is now positive 1,500 bucks.
pchamp
Footballguy
That makes sense. When you do a synthetic buy like that, do you need $1385 freed up in your account or how does it work if the stock went to zero? Would you just owe you brokerage company?
SIDA!
Footballguy
Anyone know if you can do synthetic stock thru Scottrade? The branch manager indicated in a casual manner that I would only be able to write covered calls and buy puts or calls.
siffoin
Footballguy
In short...to explainLong Combo
* “Synthetically” long stock
* Long call and short put at same strike and expiration
* Has the same risk exposure as long stock, and dividends and cost of carry are built into the combo price
* Unlike stock, combos expire, and unless it is exactly at the money, long stock will be the result of the call exercise or the put assignment.
* In most cases, requires less margin than long stock
Brokers may vary. Again...whatever broker you use...everyone should have every "option" available to maximize gain and minimize risk. If your broker doesn't allow you that opportunity find a new one.
The Ref
Footballguy
I'm no less then 90% convinced that anyone who bought Commodities or Foreign stocks today is going to be VERY happy. Personally I plan to get my money all in over the next week so that I'll be fully invested in commodities and overseas markets.
Fact - a laundry list of countries in the world are pleading there case to talk down the value of its currency. Japan, New Zealand, Canada, Australia just to name a few. Now ask yourself, why is it that the USA is the only country in the entire world trying to talk up the strength of our currency? And not only is the US government talking up the dollar, you have other countries talking it up on our behalf. Of course the countries that are helping in the hype campaign are going along with it so they can exit the USD as fast as they can.
I expect a rally in the overall market with a focus on commodities and foreign stocks, sooner rather then later I suspect.
Fact - a laundry list of countries in the world are pleading there case to talk down the value of its currency. Japan, New Zealand, Canada, Australia just to name a few. Now ask yourself, why is it that the USA is the only country in the entire world trying to talk up the strength of our currency? And not only is the US government talking up the dollar, you have other countries talking it up on our behalf. Of course the countries that are helping in the hype campaign are going along with it so they can exit the USD as fast as they can.
I expect a rally in the overall market with a focus on commodities and foreign stocks, sooner rather then later I suspect.
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David Dodds
Administrator
I fully agree with this assessment. Natural Gas, Aluminum, Silver, Copper and China stocks are on my plate as well. I also may have to have some dollars in the Dry Shippers if they shrink anymore.
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David Dodds
Administrator
BTW I did get my PRGN dividend, but was too stupid to see that I got it. It came on the ninth too.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Just out of curiosity, which foreign stocks look the best to you?I am already long oil but looking to diversify a bit.
David Dodds
Administrator
Year to Date Profit = $135,890
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses: +3,255
Sold 2,500 UNG @15.25 - Profit = 3,175 - 18 = $3,157
Sold 2,000 HEB @ 2.75 - Loss = 20 -12 = -$32
Sold 8,000 KERX @ 1.07 - Profit = $160 -30 = +130
Holding:
12,000 CENX @ 7.11
400 CHK @ 22.77
4,000 KERX @ 1.05
1,000 FEED @ 6.07
500 SLV @ 13.85
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses: +3,255
Sold 2,500 UNG @15.25 - Profit = 3,175 - 18 = $3,157
Sold 2,000 HEB @ 2.75 - Loss = 20 -12 = -$32
Sold 8,000 KERX @ 1.07 - Profit = $160 -30 = +130
Holding:
12,000 CENX @ 7.11
400 CHK @ 22.77
4,000 KERX @ 1.05
1,000 FEED @ 6.07
500 SLV @ 13.85
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David Dodds
Administrator
Keyword is always profit. I am already regretting selling UNG and will likely be looking to buy on any sort of dipHolding:
300 CHK @ 23.93
400 UNG @ 13.93
800 ATPG @ 8.24
800 FEED @ 6.22
Year to Date Profit = A lot less than Dodds
Also looking to buy up more Aluminum, Silver, Copper and China stocks this week as well.
UNG up another 60 cents in pre-marketKeyword is always profit. I am already regretting selling UNG and will likely be looking to buy on any sort of dipHolding:
300 CHK @ 23.93
400 UNG @ 13.93
800 ATPG @ 8.24
800 FEED @ 6.22
Year to Date Profit = A lot less than Dodds
Also looking to buy up more Aluminum, Silver, Copper and China stocks this week as well.
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
SLV and UNG up pre-market ...
BDI also up ... I know several folks are planning a re-entry to the shippers ... PRGN is tempting to average in here somewhere around the 4.35 point.
BDI also up ... I know several folks are planning a re-entry to the shippers ... PRGN is tempting to average in here somewhere around the 4.35 point.
David Dodds
Administrator
BDI Up big again....If the Nasdaq rebounds big today, the Shippers could be in for a great day
Baltic Supramax 1,699 (-0.18%)
Baltic Handysize 796 (-1.73%)
Baltic Dry 3,951 (+5.00%)
Baltic Capesize 7,648 (+5.83%)
Baltic Panamax 3,108 (+7.88%)
Baltic Supramax 1,699 (-0.18%)
Baltic Handysize 796 (-1.73%)
Baltic Dry 3,951 (+5.00%)
Baltic Capesize 7,648 (+5.83%)
Baltic Panamax 3,108 (+7.88%)
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David Dodds
Administrator
Looking like a big selling day brewing for me here. I am hoping for 7.70+ on CENX. FEED is up about 50 cents a share which is nice too.
David Dodds
Administrator
It is tracking well to the EMA (12) line in my opinion. That has FEED at $6.84
Well, I've got nearly all my cash tied up in these areas so I hope "The Dodds" continues batting 1,000.
David Dodds
Administrator
added 2,000 UNG at 16.18 - This just feels HOT to me
David Dodds
Administrator
woohoo CENX going nuts now
