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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (5 Viewers)

General opinion.

Right now we are in a kind of no-mans land of price action on the major indexes. But make no mistake...there are some warning signs. The weight of the LT trend is DOWN. Worse, it appears as if the daily chart is moving below the first major support levels...which indicates that the bull trend from March to June is likely coming to an end or is already over. But we just don't have confirmation... yet.

Taking positions here on either side carries significant risk because the odds of success are less than 50/50 because you can easily get whipsawed out of your position by being disciplined.

If we close today below 902...I will have a much better picture of what is going to happen next. However, often on down days there is last hour manipulation that propels the markets upwards...so it is possible we remain in no-mans-land..

In the end...until 1025 SP500 gets taken out to the upside...we are in a long term bear market. Worse, the potential of SP500 under 500 is in play.

Trading the emini futures market daily...it has been pretty easy to see that the 3 month rally has been a coordinated effort by institutions funded by the government. More worrisome is my opinion that dark pools have been getting information unavailable to investors pre-mrket...and have been masterful in creating pre-market gaps, from which they can quickly profit in a market that then remains flat throughout much of the trading day. To me this indicates investors are not participating in this rally, and that we soon hear the siren cries from shills suggesting to the public "if you missed the rally, now is the time to buy" as financial institutions unload their shares to the un-suspecting public while the market accelerates to the downside.

The market right now is a traders paradise. However, don't get caught trading the wrong side of the trend. And until the market determines that next direction...keep some powder dry.

 
siffoin said:
General opinion.Right now we are in a kind of no-mans land of price action on the major indexes. But make no mistake...there are some warning signs. The weight of the LT trend is DOWN. Worse, it appears as if the daily chart is moving below the first major support levels...which indicates that the bull trend from March to June is likely coming to an end or is already over. But we just don't have confirmation... yet. Taking positions here on either side carries significant risk because the odds of success are less than 50/50 because you can easily get whipsawed out of your position by being disciplined.If we close today below 902...I will have a much better picture of what is going to happen next. However, often on down days there is last hour manipulation that propels the markets upwards...so it is possible we remain in no-mans-land..In the end...until 1025 SP500 gets taken out to the upside...we are in a long term bear market. Worse, the potential of SP500 under 500 is in play.Trading the emini futures market daily...it has been pretty easy to see that the 3 month rally has been a coordinated effort by institutions funded by the government. More worrisome is my opinion that dark pools have been getting information unavailable to investors pre-mrket...and have been masterful in creating pre-market gaps, from which they can quickly profit in a market that then remains flat throughout much of the trading day. To me this indicates investors are not participating in this rally, and that we soon hear the siren cries from shills suggesting to the public "if you missed the rally, now is the time to buy" as financial institutions unload their shares to the un-suspecting public while the market accelerates to the downside.The market right now is a traders paradise. However, don't get caught trading the wrong side of the trend. And until the market determines that next direction...keep some powder dry.
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One of my mistakes when the market first crashing was to try to hold and wait it out instead of going to cash. I hated selling after taking a loss. I'd like to think I've learned to be less emotional in investing since. I'll look for spots to sell and try to get to all cash by tomorrow and wait until a clearer trend before getting back in.Except for my HEB lottery ticket of course. :rolleyes:
 
moderated said:
posted a couple weeks ago i was waiting on prgn going to 3.65 to buy, but i really think there is still some fat to trim here.gonna wait until 3.25, which it should hit within the next week or so.
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$3.50 and falling. I cant believe how low this is going. Even with dilution and a slight drop in BDI. Im also gonna load up when it gets to the low $3's.
 
I sold 1/3 of my PRGN position at opening this morning with a market order I placed over the weekend. I figured I would re-buy after the inevitable 15 cent drop during the day.

But I never expected a day like this. PRGN has one of the least losses.

So I am going to old faithful instead:

In FAS @ 8.26

 
Incredible losses across the board for me. Ugh what a horrible 8-9 days. I'm gonna hold on and hope for a rebound. I'm still up about 30% from when I started, but if I had gone liquid earlier this month, I would have been up 60+%.

 
OK, It's official that today sucked. I like the companies I am holding, but am upside down in virtually everything. CENX cratered. I am glad I sold over half my position at 6.75 on Friday. I tried to buy my way out of this mess, but it kept sinking lower. I am likely facing hard decisions soon on some of these stocks unless we see a nice rebound on Tuesday or Wednesday. I will likely exit 1/2 of my CENX position at any semblance of a rally tomorrow. This should afford me with a lot more buying power should this still be heading off a cliff. I am disappointed in myself for not dumping PRGN early. I knew that was the prudent move (and could add back cheaper and later).

 
bigfishboy said:
I sold 1/3 of my PRGN position at opening this morning with a market order I placed over the weekend. I figured I would re-buy after the inevitable 15 cent drop during the day.But I never expected a day like this. PRGN has one of the least losses.So I am going to old faithful instead:In FAS @ 8.26
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In FAS @ 8.15
 
Honestly the only smart play is to buy gold and silver on the dips. The next several months will probably be pretty rough, but it may offer one final opportunity to buy precious metals on the cheap.

 
Ooooof. So much for preaching about cutting my losses!

I've watched CENX take away 90 percent of my profits since I started trading.

Very frustrating with the fact I bought twice as much as I originally wanted and then I had my account frozen for PDT violations. But I didn't want to sell and be frozen out of trading for three days while I set up my new account. Ooof.

That was costly. Still long my 600 shares in part because I am thinking long term I will do alright with it.

Dunno. Back to square one. I will take a look at things tonight and go from there. Hope others are faring better than myself.

 
Rough day in the markets overall but not a bad day to start back writing put options. I did so on GLD, SLV, and GE today. Waiting for further declines to possibly do more.

 
Did not sell anything on a day that was down for everything I like.

Year to Date Profit = $148,535

Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses: none



Holding:

15,000 CENX @ 6.39 - This fell off a cliff. EMA (12) is at 6.55 though so I remain hopeful I can get back these losses.



400 CHK @ 22.77 - This thing just keeps bleeding as well. I am probably going to dump at any kind of rise at all and eat the loss.



3,000 HEB @ 2.50 - Probably a penny stock if they don't approve Ampligen. I think it has less than a 50% chance, but would be a HUGE gainer if it happened. Straight out gambling here.

16,000 PRGN @ 3.98 - Timed this horribly too

The stuff I added today all feels safe though:

5,000 CNB @ 0.82

2,000 FEED @ 5.53

3,000 COIN @ 1.24

1,000 SVA @ 3.79

Tomorrow's plan: If I can get $3.75 or more, I am dumping all of my PRGN for the time being. That might be wishful thinking though. I will also dump 8,000 shares of CENX at about $6.10, but that's probably a long shot at this point too. I will sell any of the stocks I added today if they gain 5%. This portfolio really needs some good news starting on Tuesday.

 
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Mark Davis said:
Rough day in the markets overall but not a bad day to start back writing put options. I did so on GLD, SLV, and GE today. Waiting for further declines to possibly do more.
Click to expand...
Mark you and I have discussed Put writing before...so I hope you understand that I''ve got your best interests in mind here.In regards to SLV, GLD and GE...I do not think put writing is a good idea here. And here is why.I have all three going to daily sells either today (SLV and GLD) or within the past few days (GE). So the charts are saying we are in the very early stage of a pullback that could last weeks/months. That means that you are (imo) going to be getting the least from writing these puts now. In other words..there is a very high probability that the puts will be worth more in the future, or that you can write a lower strike for the same.Now if you think GLD, SLV and GE are in the process of bottoming here...then by all means, put writing is the way to go. I just don't see it. Good luck with it.In the next few days..I plan to begin reposting on my web site with new charts and trading ideas. I think GE, GLD and SLV will be featured along with UNG/OIH...as well as the main indexes.
 
I haven't read this thread and was away from computer all day, but just wanted to come in and vomit over my CHK options and CENX shares.

That is all. Please tell me if this bloodbath is going to continue and if I should sell and keep whatever money I have left.

TTFIA

 
Mr. Pickles said:
bigfishboy said:
SecondCity34 said:
bigfishboy said:
I sold 1/3 of my PRGN position at opening this morning with a market order I placed over the weekend. I figured I would re-buy after the inevitable 15 cent drop during the day.But I never expected a day like this. PRGN has one of the least losses.So I am going to old faithful instead:In FAS @ 8.26
Click to expand...
In FAS @ 8.15
Click to expand...
:thumbdown: After Hours: 8.03 :X
Click to expand...
:(FAZians, unite.
Click to expand...
:wall:
 
siffoin said:
More worrisome is my opinion that dark pools have been getting information unavailable to investors pre-mrket...and have been masterful in creating pre-market gaps, from which they can quickly profit in a market that then remains flat throughout much of the trading day.
Click to expand...
Can you explain what this means? I don't know what a dark pool is or a pre market gap, or why it would be profitable if the market remains flat, so I'm asking as much at a vocabulary level as at an investing level.
 
Lost 8% today. Ugh. I'm going to ride it out. To heck with the World Bank and Adam F from thestreet.com - here's hoping some type of positive economic indicator or report comes out. Since a very large percentage of my portfolio consists of speculative biotechs (AGEN, CTIC, HEB), I fear that if I sell now I'll miss out on big news and hence big gains. I must admit though that holding HEB is getting very tiresome. The 1-2 week FDA delay has now been like a month but feels like a year. I'm actually almost buying into Adam F's bashing, though I hate his guts.

 
Here is why I am holding HEB and will until news dictates I sell it:

On June 5th this year, this stock hit $4.54. Yet despite this price, not a single insider sold any of their shares of stock. In fact no insiders have sold any of their stock the last 5 years.

The newly hired VP took a low base pay and options to purchase considerable shares at $2.81.

The question is simple. If this is a HUGE SCAM, why did no insider sell over $4.00 if this is but a penny stock?

 
David Dodds said:
Here is why I am holding HEB and will until news dictates I sell it:On June 5th this year, this stock hit $4.54. Yet despite this price, not a single insider sold any of their shares of stock. In fact no insiders have sold any of their stock the last 5 years. The newly hired VP took a low base pay and options to purchase considerable shares at $2.81. The question is simple. If this is a HUGE SCAM, why did no insider sell over $4.00 if this is but a penny stock?
Click to expand...
Ha ha - I just read your post on the yahoo board. Twas a nice breath of fresh air. Those bashers can really suck the life out of you. That bottom feeder is the worst. I picture him actually looking like Gollum, lurking and trolling and posting from underneath a bridge somewhere.
 
David Dodds said:
eoMMan said:
bmetz said:
Adam Fuernstein working his magic on HEB again
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Wow.
Click to expand...
Criminal what the Street is doing. I suspect this and the full blown story on how the Street manipulated the last bio stock could get them in a ton of hot water soon.
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Feurstein isn't the guy you should be getting mad at here... IMO he believes very strongly (and with good reason as an industry journalist with plenty of insider sources) that HEB is a scam company.I agree with him.

Feurstein's theory about Hemispherx withdrawing their current submission makes perfect sense, and I won't be surprised in the least when we find out that that is exactly what has happened.

Hemispherx is in the HOF for Pump and Dump operations.

The truly sad part is all of the legit small biotechs out there that are starving on the vine for lack of funding while the HEB scam reloads and rolls on.

 
Das Boot said:
David Dodds said:
eoMMan said:
bmetz said:
Adam Fuernstein working his magic on HEB again
Click to expand...
Wow.
Click to expand...
Criminal what the Street is doing. I suspect this and the full blown story on how the Street manipulated the last bio stock could get them in a ton of hot water soon.
Click to expand...
Feurstein isn't the guy you should be getting mad at here... IMO he believes very strongly (and with good reason as an industry journalist with plenty of insider sources) that HEB is a scam company.I agree with him.

Feurstein's theory about Hemispherx withdrawing their current submission makes perfect sense, and I won't be surprised in the least when we find out that that is exactly what has happened.

Hemispherx is in the HOF for Pump and Dump operations.

The truly sad part is all of the legit small biotechs out there that are starving on the vine for lack of funding while the HEB scam reloads and rolls on.
Click to expand...
I think we agree to disagree here. Why would HEB withdraw their application? They have clinical trials that show the drug works. They have Japan onboard with using Ampligen as an adjuvant. Feurstein and the Street are helping the hedge funds manipulate this stock wildly. See similar storyline here:http://www.deepcapture.com/michael-milken-...hapter-1-of-15/

 
David Dodds said:
Das Boot said:
David Dodds said:
eoMMan said:
bmetz said:
Adam Fuernstein working his magic on HEB again
Click to expand...
Wow.
Click to expand...
Criminal what the Street is doing. I suspect this and the full blown story on how the Street manipulated the last bio stock could get them in a ton of hot water soon.
Click to expand...
Feurstein isn't the guy you should be getting mad at here... IMO he believes very strongly (and with good reason as an industry journalist with plenty of insider sources) that HEB is a scam company.I agree with him.

Feurstein's theory about Hemispherx withdrawing their current submission makes perfect sense, and I won't be surprised in the least when we find out that that is exactly what has happened.

Hemispherx is in the HOF for Pump and Dump operations.

The truly sad part is all of the legit small biotechs out there that are starving on the vine for lack of funding while the HEB scam reloads and rolls on.
Click to expand...
I think we agree to disagree here. Why would HEB withdraw their application? They have clinical trials that show the drug works. They have Japan onboard with using Ampligen as an adjuvant. Feurstein and the Street are helping the hedge funds manipulate this stock wildly. See similar storyline here:http://www.deepcapture.com/michael-milken-...hapter-1-of-15/
Click to expand...
DNDN is worthy of a book all by itself - it has been a very interesting story to follow.It certainly will be interesting and illuminating to find out if Hemispherx has withdrawn their application.

If so, it will IMO have been due to their near 100% certainty that there was no way in hell the FDA would ever approve Ampligen for CFS, let along anything given the company's history.

Pulling the application before the decision would keep the share price from cratering, and would allow Hemispherx to switch attention/hope/hype to Japan and the adjuvant argument.

They'll milk that for as long as they can, find some reason to bail on that, and then circle back and resubmit again for CFS.

Or if not CFS, then whatever next big thing has come along in the meantime that Ampligen will cure.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

 
RGE Monitor has some good stuff

http://www.rgemonitor.com/96/Global_Curren...luster_id=12599

U.S. Current Account Deficit: Will the Improvement Continue?

The U.S. current account deficit has been declining since 2005 and as of Q1 2009 is back to 2002 levels in dollar terms. Over the last few quarters, total U.S. borrowing from the rest of the world has fallen and the current account deficit has improved, as the increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit was more than compensated by a sharp rise in private saving, and imports fell faster than exports. However, the room for further improvement may be limited as the sharp fall in imports linked to consumer retrenchment may be matched by a further slowdown in U.S. exports.

* Q1 2009: The U.S. Current Account Deficit fell to $101.5 billion, smallest since Q1 2002. The deficit on goods fell to $124 billion in Q1 2009 from $178.8 billion in Q4 2008, with large declines in imports of petroleum, industrial supplies and automobiles. The services surplus fell to $32.8 billion from $34.3 billion in Q4 2008, while the surplus from income on net foreign assets and employee compensation rose to $19.3 billion from $21.1 billion and unilateral transfers fell to $29.6 billion in Q1 2009 from $31.5 billion in Q4 2008. The current account deficit for Q4 2008 was revised downwards by $22 billion to $154.8 billion.

* For the year 2008, U.S. current account deficit fell to $706.1 billion from $726.6 billion in 2007. The deficit narrowed due to an increase in the surplus from income and services while net unilateral transfers fell and the goods deficit increased for the year, though falling in Q3 and Q4.

* The U.S. current account deficit, which averaged an annual rate of $122 billion in the 90s, climbed above $830 billion by the end of 2005, when the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP reached as high as 6.5%, raising doubts about sustainability of the deficit. With the narrowing of the current account deficit to $101.5 billion in Q1 2009, the current account deficit to GDP ratio has fallen to 2.88%, the level of 1999.

* Cooper: The improvement of trade balance was the primary driver for the improvement in the current account deficit in Q1 2009. U.S. demand for imports is much more sensitive to domestic income changes than is foreign demand for U.S. exports, which causes the trade balance to improve when America and its major trading partners slip into synchronized recession.(BMO Capital Markets)

* The U.S. trade deficit is a proxy for the current account deficit, as income and transfers balance each other. (Setser) In Q1 2009, imports fell 26.2% relative to Q1 2008 while exports fell 16.9%. With the trade deficit down to around $30 billion per month through April 2009, the current account deficit for 2009 could fall to around $400 billion.

* Duy: While the U.S. external deficit is smaller, it still exists. It looks like much of the world, from the Fed to the Treasury to the emerging market central banks, are resisting the adjustment as it requires continued soft domestic demand in the US to limit imports. The continued existence of the current account deficit suggests the U.S. remains dependent on capital inflows. Failure to attract those inflows would trigger downward pressure on bonds and the dollar.(Tim Duy's Fed Watch)

* While the depreciation of the dollar will lead to a reduction in imports, the recent increase in oil prices and other commodity prices will raise import costs. If the global recovery lags a U.S. recovery, exports may ease further, impairing prospects for a large correction in the U.S. current account deficit.

* Setser: A slowing global economy will take a toll on US exports and much additional improvement in the US current account balance is unlikely. (Follow the Money)

* The decline in the U.S. deficit in 2008 and so far in 2009 is one example of the reduction of global imbalances for now. Balancing the U.S. deficit are Asian exporting countries such as China, whose effort to peg the RMB to the dollar to promote the growth of cheap exports to the U.S. led to the accumulation of large dollar assets, and equivalently large exposure to the risk of an eventual dollar depreciation, which will only rise if current conditions continue. The correction in the imbalance of the U.S. current account on the one hand and the increasing dollar assets of trade surplus countries may come from a fall in the dollar.

* Setser: A weaker dollar will help bring about a rebound in US exports just as stronger currencies abroad will push other countries to take steps to stimulate their own economies. (Follow the Money)

* Bryson: We project that the current account deficit will be roughly $125 billion smaller this year than the $673 billion deficit that was registered in 2008. Oil prices may trend higher but should be below $100/barrel. Deep recessions in most foreign countries should cause U.S. exports to fall significantly in 2009, limiting improvement in the current account deficit. The current account deficit will exert downward pressure on the dollar, though not to the same extent as it did over the past few years when the deficit was substantially larger. (Wachovia)
Click to expand...
 
David Dodds said:
Here is why I am holding HEB and will until news dictates I sell it:On June 5th this year, this stock hit $4.54. Yet despite this price, not a single insider sold any of their shares of stock. In fact no insiders have sold any of their stock the last 5 years. The newly hired VP took a low base pay and options to purchase considerable shares at $2.81. The question is simple. If this is a HUGE SCAM, why did no insider sell over $4.00 if this is but a penny stock?
Click to expand...
maybe because they are not allowed?maybe because on such a low priced stock, a strong insider sale would send the stock tumbling?I think a stronger indication of insider transactions to the strength of a company is actual share purchases. By my research, Carter hasn't bought any stock in the last 2.5 years, anything he owns has been awarded to him.
 
back over two. That was some crazy market manipulation. Did a trade really go down at 1.50??

ETA: back below two,lol

 
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UNG is getting very attractive to me a these prices - unfortunately, I have a bit much tied up in losses in PRGN and CENX right now. I suppose I'll wait this out a bit longer.

 
guru_007 said:
UNG is getting very attractive to me a these prices - unfortunately, I have a bit much tied up in losses in PRGN and CENX right now. I suppose I'll wait this out a bit longer.
Click to expand...
I'm stuck in the same 2 with most of my money. I want to buy stuff now, but have no money left.
 
bostonfred said:
siffoin said:
More worrisome is my opinion that dark pools have been getting information unavailable to investors pre-mrket...and have been masterful in creating pre-market gaps, from which they can quickly profit in a market that then remains flat throughout much of the trading day.
Click to expand...
Can you explain what this means? I don't know what a dark pool is or a pre market gap, or why it would be profitable if the market remains flat, so I'm asking as much at a vocabulary level as at an investing level.
Click to expand...
Well in short dark pools are a hidden privilege given to certain financial institutions which allow them to trade in the markets without showing an open order. This gives them a HUGE advantage.The nature of free markets is that buyers and sellers can see the bid/ask. Because dark pools can see your order but don't have to reveal theirs is akin to you and me playing poker. Only in this game I get to see your hand, but don't have to reveal mine. The game is tilted.So let's talk about pre-market gaps. Yesterday afternoon, I heard on the radio that Goldman will be handing out record bonuses this year...it will be their most profitable EVER! How can this be? Weren't all financial institutions on the brink of collapse just a few short months ago?Well here is my (noted biased) speculation. You see I day trade index futures. What is an index future? Well you ma be aware there is a futures market for corn, pork bellies, oil, etc. There is also a futures market for the major indexes...sp500, dow, nasdaq, russel etc. And on a day to day basis the futures market drives...it always leads. In addition (if you were a big institution) it is much easier and cheaper to move the futs market (resulting in moving the index) than it is to buy/sell every stock in the sp500 and cause that index to move. If you watch CNBC prior to the market open you may notice a ticker that says SP500 futures Up 10 pts, DOW Futs up 100 pts, Nasdaq Futures Up 20 pts (it varies day to day...some days up some days down). And what this is telling you is that (in this example) the SP500 is going to open 10 pts higher than it closed yesterday. A big gap like this often occurs because some news is reported after the previous close but prior to the open...it may be overseas good news, newly released economic data...something like that would create a pre-market gap up. Bad news would create a gap down. (gNow typically volume in the futures market is pretty consistent. And unlike the regular market the futures market is open all night. Normally, volume overnight would be at most 5% of a typical trading day. However recently I've noticed that volume overnight is much much larger...maybe 20-30% of that day's trading activity. And over the past 6 weeks it has been VERY common to see the market gap up 100 pts...and then trade within a very tight range all day. So there is abnormal activity overnight...the market gaps...and then there is no follow through (which means investors aren't investing...the move is artificial)So what does this mean...and how would a dark pool profit?Lets say I'm at a dark pool trading desk of Goldman. So I can see all the open orders...buys, sells, stops etc. Because of that lets say I make a coordinated effort to move the market up...I buy 50,000 futures contracts overnight...doing so I can press the market up to the tune of 10 sp500 pts. And soon after the open I close the contracts. How much do I make.Each contract is worth $50 per pt. So 50,000 x $50 x 10pts = $25,000,000. And hey I just had a VERY good morning. Do that consistently and record profits aren't difficult to imagine. And realize that 50,000 contracts is nothing...active overnight...the futs might trade 500k contracts.
 
David Dodds said:
Dumped all of my PRGN for 3.75 at a loss to de-leverage a bit here in this market. I expect to buy back for similar soon.
Click to expand...
Nice move.Baltic Indices Baltic Dry 3,874 (-3.85%) Baltic Capesize 7,441 (-5.92%) Baltic Panamax 3,021 (-1.53%) Baltic Supramax 1,757 (-0.06%) Baltic Handysize 774 (-0.39%)
 
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