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With just a bit of research you could be pretty consistent writing calls one strike OOM on companies about to release earnings.You get the benefit of the imp vol imploding, premium burn and the better than 50:50 chance earnings disappoint all on your side.I've finally got the ability to short, anyone got any ideas for stocks?Although I'm starting to think maybe just short everything we've been buying the way these last 3 weeks have gone.
I'm gonna have to liquidate my PRGN holdings in 3-4 months though, so let's hope that they crush 2Q earnings as well. That's the only way I won't take a beat down on my shares.
My guess is based on this news:S&P SmallCap 600 constituent WMS Industries (WMS) will replace The Colonial BancGroup (CNB) in the S&P MidCap 400springroll said:
This is really good news. They almost have 2010 completely booked now and at 46% for 2011, they are in steady hands while the rest of their competitors aren't. Imagine for a minute that they started executing their buyback of up to $20M in shares this past week with the stock hovering between $3.50 and $3.80. If this were to go up to say $4.25 naturally on this news and then they report great earnings (and disclose that they bought $20M of their own stock), what's PRGN worth? Among all of the chaos out there right now in the market, PRGN is a sure thing to run up to $5+ by the time they report earnings in my opinion.I may liquidate most everything and start buying in heavily here. The rest of the market seems nuts to me right now. But this one appears to be an easy home run. Remember their goal all along has been to get the share price to stay above $5/share so institutions can partake. They had it there before silution, but also had a covenant that said they had to have a company worth $200M (which was waived this year). They are steady now with their 47 Million shares and stock likely headed to $5 soon.Boulder Toads said:
PRGN at these prices definitely intrigues me. David, as you know, the yahoo message boards are not the best place for research and info, but the bashing over there isn't the standard "company is going BK, stock is going to 1 dollar", it is mostly ripping management for being shady/devious/crooked/criminal. Is all of that overblown or are you still a bit concerned with management's shadiness, which I know you questioned at times before (moreso OCNF, but PRGN to an extent too)
I don't trust DRYS at all. and DRYS and OCNF are connected at the hip so you can lump them in the same category. PRGN is legit. They screwed people a bit with the double offering this year, but you have to realize that the banks were making them do that as the value of their ships (that they used as collateral against the debt have dropped significantly). So the second offering sucked and was unexpected, but the CEO admits doing that offering was a HUGE mistake. These guys are candid and straight shooters generally. You will never here DRYS say they have made a mistake and they constantly are flushing dollars down the drain (cancelling ship orders, etc). PRGN owes $380 Million in long term debt. They just raised $80+ M and are wildly profitable even with the current debt. They will take this money and pay down their debt. On June 11th of this year, Five Stars acquired a three-year-old panamax ship for $39 million from Hong Kong’s Jinhui Shipping & Transportation Ltd. PRGNs ships are a bit older, but they are still likely worth $32M. They have 8 of these and 12 ships total. If you figure the other ships are worth about $22M each, they have ships worth $344M alone. So do the math. 47 million shares at $3.75 = $176.25 Million worth. They had $37 M in cash on hand and raised $42 M in the first offering. The second will have netted similar numbers. This company also earns $25M+ per quarter.So for $176M (stock cost) + $378M (debt), you can fully own PRGN. And you get a company has $344M worth of ships, has $120M in cash and earns $25M a quarter. I think at these stock prices, this company is an unbelievable steal. People will get it come next earnings report.
Just added 200 shares while you were typing this.
How much are you into HEB for???Just liquidated my CHK for a $400 loss. I'd rather be in UNG even though it's more conservative.
I have 6,000 shares and am thinking of adding to that
Yup. I got out of HEB. I wanted to join the fun in here, but frankly that just looks like a dice roll to me. And everything I read about it sounds shady. So I dumped out of HEB for a few percent loss this morning and went into UNG options also. January, $16 strike. That's a lot of time for natty gas to recover, and that's also the dead of winter, so maybe that will affect prices/demand.
I really, really, really hate the stock market.
I think you made the right call here. Feel free to bump this when HEB hits $18.Yup. I got out of HEB. I wanted to join the fun in here, but frankly that just looks like a dice roll to me. And everything I read about it sounds shady. So I dumped out of HEB for a few percent loss this morning and went into UNG options also. January, $16 strike. That's a lot of time for natty gas to recover, and that's also the dead of winter, so maybe that will affect prices/demand.I really, really, really hate the stock market.
i guess when you are up 140,000 it might be fun to throw around a few thousand shares.
turning around now.....
I don't blame you Otis. Lots of shaking out, rattling, and general messing with the psyche. I still think you and your friend had great ideas with both chk and ung. I'm just biding some time and making some cheap longer term plays. Added to my LVS and MGM positions. Sold my rimm put for a 225 profit. Holding some small short positions on sds, qid, and skf. Playing a wait and see game, which i hate. I should have bought that bidu and cme option i was looking at yesterday.Yup. I got out of HEB. I wanted to join the fun in here, but frankly that just looks like a dice roll to me. And everything I read about it sounds shady. So I dumped out of HEB for a few percent loss this morning and went into UNG options also. January, $16 strike. That's a lot of time for natty gas to recover, and that's also the dead of winter, so maybe that will affect prices/demand.I really, really, really hate the stock market.
Moved 15% in minutes.
Just like that HEB up 20 centsI bought 2000 shares of PRGN. Gonna add slowly.Yup. I got out of HEB. I wanted to join the fun in here, but frankly that just looks like a dice roll to me. And everything I read about it sounds shady. So I dumped out of HEB for a few percent loss this morning and went into UNG options also. January, $16 strike. That's a lot of time for natty gas to recover, and that's also the dead of winter, so maybe that will affect prices/demand.
*OTIS factorDIE STOCK MARKET.
I'm convinced. My buddy thanked me last night for getting out of CHK.I'm this close to forever swearing off the stock market and instead keeping my money in cash in a burlap sack under my bed.*OTIS factor
You need to secks up a slumpbuster.*OTIS factorDIE STOCK MARKET.
Being somewhat serious here.But consider a Costanza style of trading.If every natural instinct you have about the market is wrong...then doing the exact opposite would have to be correct and profitable.Yup. I got out of HEB. I wanted to join the fun in here, but frankly that just looks like a dice roll to me. And everything I read about it sounds shady. So I dumped out of HEB for a few percent loss this morning and went into UNG options also. January, $16 strike. That's a lot of time for natty gas to recover, and that's also the dead of winter, so maybe that will affect prices/demand.
I had this very thought a couple of days ago.CHK 19.67 +0.40 (2.08%) CENX 6.01 +0.56 (10.28%)Being somewhat serious here.But consider a Costanza style of trading.If every natural instinct you have about the market is wrong...then doing the exact opposite would have to be correct and profitable.Yup. I got out of HEB. I wanted to join the fun in here, but frankly that just looks like a dice roll to me. And everything I read about it sounds shady. So I dumped out of HEB for a few percent loss this morning and went into UNG options also. January, $16 strike. That's a lot of time for natty gas to recover, and that's also the dead of winter, so maybe that will affect prices/demand.I really, really, really hate the stock market.
Why don't you just pick 6-10 stocks that you like and hold for a month or two?On second thought, just do what Dodd's does.
If I could be up 10% of what Dodds is up I would be
I think there are just certain fundamental truths in this world. One of those is that Otis will always, no matter what, be bad at money. While others will make great wise investments and profits, Otis's money belongs in one place: a savings account.
just set a 10 cent trailing stop.
FSIN on a tear today, wouldn't be surprised to see this thing head back towards the 9's but I think I will bank a nice win. Out at $7.97 - gain of $659.79
if my CENX turds sell, I'll be using what's left of that money to add to my PRGN as well.
