springroll said:
This is LJ said:
Anyone playing Biogen (BIIB) or Elan (ELN) on the Tysabri-related drop? I got my hand into elan last year with the promising clinical trials and got burned. One of my worst losses to date. Likely not gonna play it again but it does have some upside as Novartis has shown interest in a takeover. Still, I'm spooked with that stock.
Biogen seems like an interesting play here. Fundamentals seem good for pharma as far as its valuation. Intraday technicals are as good as they get (cup/handle), long term technicals are also great- just broke support recently out of a
triple top. Here's a
cursory chart i cooked up for you. As a technical play, it fits the bill.
Anyone gonna play this one with me?
Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) and Belgian biopharmaceutical company UCB SA (UCB.BT) discontinued a Phase II clinical trial of a treatment for relapsing multiple sclerosis, saying there was no clinically relevant benefit for patients. The latest setback for Biogen comes on top of its disclosure last week of a debilitating brain infection in patients taking its Tysabri multiple-sclerosis medicine, which sparked a selloff in its shares. That incident marked the 13th case of the infection in a Tysabri patient. Three have died. The companies said Tuesday a preliminary interim analysis showed patients enrolled in the clinical trial didn't benefit as expected from the treatment, CDP323, compared with placebo after a six-month treatment period. UCB expects a pretax noncash impairment charge tied to the discontinuation, which it said will be more than offset by cash and capital gains from the divestitures the company made earlier this year. Earlier this month, Biogen lost a proxy fight with billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn, who won two seats on its board and has suggested Biogen ought to be split up or sold. Biogen shares half of Tysabri's profits with Ireland's Elan Corp. (ELN). Biogen shares were unchanged at $45.15 in after-hours trading and are off 5.2% so far this year through Tuesday's close.
Hmm... well I'm not so concerned with the news. Tysabri is Biogen's 3rd highest grossing drug, behind another MS market leader in Avonex. My father is a neurologist and has been prescribing Tysabri for many years now. So I've got a good perspective on how the news will impact him. His words yesterday were frank- Tysabri is a wonderful drug and the benefits that his patients have seen are astronomical. He's not too concerned about PML. Only 13 cases so far, far from its threshold of 40-50 to be on the label, three deaths. And it hasn't stopped any doctors in the area from prescribing it. Personally he prescribes Tysabri to about 11 patients a month and claims thats probably par for the course among neurologists. So the selloff yesterday was
for him especially. He has no position in Biogen, but he certainly noted that it was likely just fear and panic with the word PML and likely nothing substantial. If it were to be pulled from shelves, Avonex is still the undisputed heavyweight in the arena. So I'm also not too concerned with the cancellation of the MS trials. However, Icahn does scare me a bit. He's a brilliant man, and personally financed my way through prep school, so I do owe him gratitude, but pharmaceuticals are very delicate companies. A shark like him has no business in this sort of venture.
Again, I'm likely not long this stock at all. Its a
great short-term technical play, and thats likely how I will approach it. The fact that many shorts are out after yesterday's move may make this move very clean.
uke:.
for him especially. He has no position in Biogen, but he certainly noted that it was likely just fear and panic with the word PML and likely nothing substantial. If it were to be pulled from shelves, Avonex is still the undisputed heavyweight in the arena. So I'm also not too concerned with the cancellation of the MS trials. However, Icahn does scare me a bit. He's a brilliant man, and personally financed my way through prep school, so I do owe him gratitude, but pharmaceuticals are very delicate companies. A shark like him has no business in this sort of venture.
DAMN I missed out on the BIIB run today. Wanted to get in last night but the AH activity was too volatile, so I thought I'd get in when I woke up. Not gonna chase it here in the 47.3's. Rally still might have some legs, but including transaction fees for me, too little reward. Besides, I need to free up some capital anyway.
