My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (2 Viewers)

[skycriesmary]

Never fails, buy something that's a 'lock' and it immediatly tanks 3%.

I know we should be fine with FREE at this level, but how low could you see this go in the immediate future? In the low $1.70's, high $1.60's?

 

[This is LJ]

LOL, it is amusing. The market loves crappy companies that lose a lot of money!

And through that very channel, beej finally makes a correct market projection. Some of these names are way overextended.

 

[This is LJ]

Never fails, buy something that's a 'lock' and it immediatly tanks 3%. I know we should be fine with FREE at this level, but how low could you see this go in the immediate future? In the low $1.70's, high $1.60's?

1.68 is the next support. I actually happen to think it'll go down from here. Chart is very bearish.

 

[BassNBrew]

Never fails, buy something that's a 'lock' and it immediatly tanks 3%. I know we should be fine with FREE at this level, but how low could you see this go in the immediate future? In the low $1.70's, high $1.60's?

Based on what other companies have done in a similiar situation, it won't do that. The only people selling below $1.80 need money immediately. I suspect the entire allotment was spoken for today so 1/3 of the ownership is in at $1.80 and won't sell below that number.

 

[kaa]

Ask yourself what changed from yesterday to today on this stock?

lower earnings per share

You guys do realize this stock ran up to $3.49 after the last earnings right? They turned HUGE profits last quarter. Since that time the spot rates for their ships has increased, they have locked down great charters going forward and now they are diluting. Dilution isn't pure evil. This money will pay down debt and likely add another ship. They made this price $1.80 because they wanted to dilute this FAST (way before earnings). They could have diluted at market price and it would have settled around $1.95 or so. Believe what you want to believe. I think this is the stock play of 2009. 3.02M shares sold already. Maybe 5.0M+ shares sell today...Don't blink too long. The stock offering likely ends tomorrow sometime.

In my experience, I agree with what Dodds is saying about dilution. Dilution isn't pure evil. It can hurt a stock a the short-term, but as long as its a good company the stock will do well in the long-term.

 

[BassNBrew]

Never fails, buy something that's a 'lock' and it immediatly tanks 3%. I know we should be fine with FREE at this level, but how low could you see this go in the immediate future? In the low $1.70's, high $1.60's?

1.68 is the next support. I actually happen to think it'll go down from here. Chart is very bearish.

Chart is irrelevant IMO. You have 1/3 new ownership and a strong baseline that those pricing the offer thought was a slam dunk. I'm sure they scrubbed the financials before buying into this.

 

[kaa]

I almost added a caveat too that if I was wrong about a top this time, it was because commodities and stocks were about to decouple. I didn't because quite frankly I haven't heard a soul say anything about a decoupling taking place at this moment - and I'm terrified of the consequences.

I got a bad feeling that today was the darkest day for America. If this is the new trend, stocks up commodities down, its means creating the biggest debt bubble ever -- and its likely we just took the US dollar out behind the barn and shot it in the head. The only people left to enforce discipline on the government are the commodities traders. If they are gone, so is the dollar in a couple years.

 

[BassNBrew]

I almost added a caveat too that if I was wrong about a top this time, it was because commodities and stocks were about to decouple. I didn't because quite frankly I haven't heard a soul say anything about a decoupling taking place at this moment - and I'm terrified of the consequences.I got a bad feeling that today was the darkest day for America. If this is the new trend, stocks up commodities down, its means creating the biggest debt bubble ever -- and its likely we just took the US dollar out behind the barn and shot it in the head. The only people left to enforce discipline on the government are the commodities traders. If they are gone, so is the dollar in a couple years.

They been decoupled for a while...it's a global market. It was only dark today for those who listened to the bears.

 

[optionmaven]

In ACLS @.49

Took a chance with you here. 1500@.4950.

And BAm, just like that, I'm up 1500 pennies.

 

[itriple]

Quick question:

I had an order to buy FREE at $1.80. However, I see the final price was $1.77 (those trades were apart of normal hours but executed at like 3:00:15. My order never filled because it expired at 3:00:00.

How did those $1.77 orders fill and mine not?

 

[KGB]

In ACLS @.49

Took a chance with you here. 1500@.4950.

And BAm, just like that, I'm up 1500 pennies.

Yep. You can now retire!Golden cross forming. I'm looking at short term .60 and possible .90 with some patience.

 

[The Z Machine]

By the way, Chesapeake on a major run the past ten tens or so. Up over 21 again now.CHK 21.02 +0.64 (3.15%) Perhaps I took those losses a tad too early

I'm still holding my CHK from when you were talking about it back a few weeks ago. I knew it was gonna rebound. All it took was the O-touch (i.e. sell and it rises).Just trying to get into the green on CHK, PRGN, and FEED.

 

[Boulder Toads]

CENX up to $7.25 afterhours

Is what I'm seeing right? Yahoo AH now showing down 0.21 to $6.50 ...Relatively LOW volume, I'm sure, but with the earnings announcement there has to be a decent churn ...I can't begin to guess how tomorrow will look for this stock??

 

[BassNBrew]

CENX crushed estimates, losing 46 cents/share compared to the 82 cents/share projected.

WoW! Glad I hung on to my shares, beat the estimate by .36!!It is flying after hours at Ameritrade - 7.20!

Now it's at $6.50. Bouncing all over the place.

 

[The Ref]

I almost added a caveat too that if I was wrong about a top this time, it was because commodities and stocks were about to decouple. I didn't because quite frankly I haven't heard a soul say anything about a decoupling taking place at this moment - and I'm terrified of the consequences.I got a bad feeling that today was the darkest day for America. If this is the new trend, stocks up commodities down, its means creating the biggest debt bubble ever -- and its likely we just took the US dollar out behind the barn and shot it in the head. The only people left to enforce discipline on the government are the commodities traders. If they are gone, so is the dollar in a couple years.

USD index was actualy up today, that makes the rally even stronger.That said, I'm 100% with you on this. The USD is sick, and it's condition isn't geting any better. Everyone should have 10% gold/silver on hand, and thats if you own a home. If you dont own real estate you should have 20% in metal.

 

[Cromedog]

Quick question:I had an order to buy FREE at $1.80. However, I see the final price was $1.77 (those trades were apart of normal hours but executed at like 3:00:15. My order never filled because it expired at 3:00:00.How did those $1.77 orders fill and mine not?

I had the same thing happen...order in good til end of day at 1.78. Never filled. Almost called and complained to my broker. Then I decided that sometimes these things happen for a reason. I already have a 1000 at 1.82.

 

[BassNBrew]

Quick question:I had an order to buy FREE at $1.80. However, I see the final price was $1.77 (those trades were apart of normal hours but executed at like 3:00:15. My order never filled because it expired at 3:00:00.How did those $1.77 orders fill and mine not?

I had the same thing happen...order in good til end of day at 1.78. Never filled. Almost called and complained to my broker. Then I decided that sometimes these things happen for a reason. I already have a 1000 at 1.82.

Just be glad they didn't stick you with a 2 share partial.

 

[Cromedog]

Quick question:I had an order to buy FREE at $1.80. However, I see the final price was $1.77 (those trades were apart of normal hours but executed at like 3:00:15. My order never filled because it expired at 3:00:00.How did those $1.77 orders fill and mine not?

I had the same thing happen...order in good til end of day at 1.78. Never filled. Almost called and complained to my broker. Then I decided that sometimes these things happen for a reason. I already have a 1000 at 1.82.

Just be glad they didn't stick you with a 2 share partial.

At least that would make sense??? I had no restrictions on my order.

 

[King of the Jungle]

FREE up pre-market 4%+

 

[iowa clubbers]

HEB making a move? $2.45

 

[NYG Endzone]

HEB making a move? $2.45

Re-initiated a HEB position pre-market at $2.19. I'm tempted to sell already.

 

[djmich]

HEB making a move? $2.45

Out at $2.54 after re-entering yesterday. This stock is nuts.

 

[Otis]

Greetings fellow Fazians /pickles

 

[St. Louis Bob]

In for 800 GGN @ $13.59.

.14 per share dividend received today. +$112.00 YTD +$9392.12Currently at $14.17 per share.

Looking forward to next months .14 dividend for holding on August 14.

 

[Otis]

In for 800 GGN @ $13.59.

.14 per share dividend received today. +$112.00 YTD +$9392.12Currently at $14.17 per share.

Looking forward to next months .14 dividend for holding on August 14.

Wow, very nice score.

 

[dotman]

Wasn't someone pimping SRSR? Down about 35% right now

 

[BroadwayG]

Wasn't someone pimping SRSR? Down about 35% right now

If you would have bought at the -35% mark, you'd be up about 25% now

 

[dotman]

Wasn't someone pimping SRSR? Down about 35% right now

If you would have bought at the -35% mark, you'd be up about 25% now

Pretty crazy stuff...I wonder why it tanked like that so fast. Down 20% on the day right now.

 

[Otis]

I have a gut feeling that this is one of those days that starts down/flat, and then charges upward in the afternoon.

 

[itriple]

PRGN has mostly Panamax ships. This is the 12th straight day of an increase. Earnings is 8 trading days away.

Baltic Indices

Baltic Dry 3,345 (-0.30%)

Baltic Capesize 5,170 (-0.92%)

Baltic Panamax 3,524 (+0.83%)

Baltic Supramax 2,091 (-0.19%)

Baltic Handysize 879 (+0.57%)

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Dodds, you have made some excellent calls in this thread. Gotta give you some props.

Just exited out of CENX for a nice profit, much appreciated.

 

[Boulder Toads]

PRGN has mostly Panamax ships. This is the 12th straight day of an increase. Earnings is 8 trading days away.Baltic Indices Baltic Dry 3,345 (-0.30%) Baltic Capesize 5,170 (-0.92%) Baltic Panamax 3,524 (+0.83%) Baltic Supramax 2,091 (-0.19%) Baltic Handysize 879 (+0.57%)

Seems like a good time to add to the position ... hovering around 4.25 ATM ... I'm contemplating it

 

[JaxBill]

KERX has been slowly increasing in price the last few days. It's finally over my average cost basis of 1.13 and up to 1.19. I've got a limit sell in for half of my shares if it can get to 1.24. I just want to free up some money.

 

[siffoin]

I have a gut feeling that this is one of those days that starts down/flat, and then charges upward in the afternoon.

Here a little traders tip.I'm a volume trader. So if you are day-trading...especially a major index...and are trying to determine the short term future direction...well one way to do that is by ascertaining market strength via Up volume vs. Down volume.

Charting programs like esignal...have this ability in a ticker format...so that (for example) NYSE Up Vol Minus NYSE Down Vol gets charted as a bar like the price movement of a stock. A 5 minute chart gives a nice picture of how the day is "trending"...especially nice when you can overlay technical indicators...even simple ones like Moving Averages.

If you don't have a professional charting program...then you need to do a little work on you own.

You can begin by going here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

A simple look and you can see (today) that Down Vol is significantly greater than Up Vol on all exchanges.

For your gut to hold true (the day screams higher)...look for this variance to narrow...with the Up Vol eventually overtaking the Dn Vol.

I may begin to post some traders tips like this on my website..as well as some tips on how to manage option trades in order to get cost basis down or even better owning the position for a net credit in a thought-through plan of attacking the position....that site has been dry for awhile now because there has been no reasonable entries for new plays either long or short.

Good luck.

 

[David Dodds]

I slept in, but I sold a lot of my HEB. I still have 10,000 shares at $2.41

15,000 sold at 2.45

5,000 sold at 2.50

5,000 sold at 2.55

I will continue to look for opportunities to daytrade this thing with no regard to whether it gets approved or not. The fact that I turned a profit in this is beyond funny as I was down a fortune.

 

[David Dodds]

I have set price buys of 10,000 more FREE at $1.80, 1.78 and 1.75, but no bites yet. All or nothing here. Volume is down considerably (on a down day) so these might trip.

I am done for a bit here as I do site work and spend time with my daughter when she wakes up

 

[This is LJ]

Wasn't someone pimping SRSR? Down about 35% right now

If you would have bought at the -35% mark, you'd be up about 25% now

Pretty crazy stuff...I wonder why it tanked like that so fast. Down 20% on the day right now.

Yeah, the volatility in this has been crazy the past two days. Its just MM shaking out weak hands and then agressively buying back. When this hit 20cents yesterday, they sold aggressively into the .16's then in the last ten minutes bought aggressively to .178. Damn, I wish I could have been awake to double down at .11.

 

[NYG Endzone]

I have a gut feeling that this is one of those days that starts down/flat, and then charges upward in the afternoon.

Here a little traders tip.I'm a volume trader. So if you are day-trading...especially a major index...and are trying to determine the short term future direction...well one way to do that is by ascertaining market strength via Up volume vs. Down volume.

Charting programs like esignal...have this ability in a ticker format...so that (for example) NYSE Up Vol Minus NYSE Down Vol gets charted as a bar like the price movement of a stock. A 5 minute chart gives a nice picture of how the day is "trending"...especially nice when you can overlay technical indicators...even simple ones like Moving Averages.

If you don't have a professional charting program...then you need to do a little work on you own.

You can begin by going here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

A simple look and you can see (today) that Down Vol is significantly greater than Up Vol on all exchanges.

For your gut to hold true (the day screams higher)...look for this variance to narrow...with the Up Vol eventually overtaking the Dn Vol.

I may begin to post some traders tips like this on my website..as well as some tips on how to manage option trades in order to get cost basis down or even better owning the position for a net credit in a thought-through plan of attacking the position....that site has been dry for awhile now because there has been no reasonable entries for new plays either long or short.

Good luck.

How often would you say this is (semi)accurate in projecting the days outcome?

 

[St. Louis Bob]

In for 800 GGN @ $13.59.

.14 per share dividend received today. +$112.00 YTD +$9392.12Currently at $14.17 per share.

Looking forward to next months .14 dividend for holding on August 14.

Wow, very nice score.

Thanks GB

 

[siffoin]

I have a gut feeling that this is one of those days that starts down/flat, and then charges upward in the afternoon.

Here a little traders tip.I'm a volume trader. So if you are day-trading...especially a major index...and are trying to determine the short term future direction...well one way to do that is by ascertaining market strength via Up volume vs. Down volume.

Charting programs like esignal...have this ability in a ticker format...so that (for example) NYSE Up Vol Minus NYSE Down Vol gets charted as a bar like the price movement of a stock. A 5 minute chart gives a nice picture of how the day is "trending"...especially nice when you can overlay technical indicators...even simple ones like Moving Averages.

If you don't have a professional charting program...then you need to do a little work on you own.

You can begin by going here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/advances

A simple look and you can see (today) that Down Vol is significantly greater than Up Vol on all exchanges.

For your gut to hold true (the day screams higher)...look for this variance to narrow...with the Up Vol eventually overtaking the Dn Vol.

I may begin to post some traders tips like this on my website..as well as some tips on how to manage option trades in order to get cost basis down or even better owning the position for a net credit in a thought-through plan of attacking the position....that site has been dry for awhile now because there has been no reasonable entries for new plays either long or short.

Good luck.

How often would you say this is (semi)accurate in projecting the days outcome?

That is a good question. This is NOT a predictor of where the day is going to end...rather it is telling you where we are in the moment. Remember Volume = Momentum. So when there is more Up Vol vs. Down Vol the momentum of the market is UP and will stay that way...just the opposite for Down Vol.My point was if you are making a trade (day trade)...this can be a simple tool to help ascertain if you are trading (at the moment) with the market's momentum.

I took a picture from my charts...overlayed with a couple of my custom trend indicators...(where red bars= Sell and green bars= Buy).

http://picasaweb.google.com/steelhedge/Stt...052581581929986

Now if I had to guess...I'd say...right now...the market will not "charge higher" but will not "crash" either. Just looking at this indicator...in this moment...I'd say we trend flat to slightly down.

If you followed from my "twittering trades"....today you would notice I'm taking quick profits....why? Because at least right now...I just don't see a lot of "big fish" opportunities. The Up vs. Dn Vol indicator is confirming this. And since my over-riding goal is profits...so be it...I'll take $25-$100 per trade and do that 5-10x today...fine by me. It makes no sense to shoot for a 100 pt YM (Dow) move when everything is telling me "it's just not there." So I wind up settling for 10pts. And if you are watching you'll see I'm squeezing about all the juice from every trade.

 

[dotman]

Wasn't someone pimping SRSR? Down about 35% right now

If you would have bought at the -35% mark, you'd be up about 25% now

Pretty crazy stuff...I wonder why it tanked like that so fast. Down 20% on the day right now.

Yeah, the volatility in this has been crazy the past two days. Its just MM shaking out weak hands and then agressively buying back. When this hit 20cents yesterday, they sold aggressively into the .16's then in the last ten minutes bought aggressively to .178. Damn, I wish I could have been awake to double down at .11.

I happened to be watching the entire time it was going on. Not knowing why anything was going on I just watched rather than jump in, still new at this. Oh well.

 

[Norman Einstein]

CENX on a little run in the last few minutes

 

[This is LJ]

Wasn't someone pimping SRSR? Down about 35% right now

If you would have bought at the -35% mark, you'd be up about 25% now

Pretty crazy stuff...I wonder why it tanked like that so fast. Down 20% on the day right now.

Yeah, the volatility in this has been crazy the past two days. Its just MM shaking out weak hands and then agressively buying back. When this hit 20cents yesterday, they sold aggressively into the .16's then in the last ten minutes bought aggressively to .178. Damn, I wish I could have been awake to double down at .11.

I happened to be watching the entire time it was going on. Not knowing why anything was going on I just watched rather than jump in, still new at this. Oh well.

There have been some massive bear raids lately. They're scary, take out a ton of automated stop losses and completely legal. They come in waves, either by groups of daytraders or from massive sells from insitutitional buyers. The strong pennies are the ones that can rebound, and the best are the ones that can recover intra-day. SRSR was, at one point, just .001 from the green, and now is sitting .01 (5%) off. These runs are great for long positions to double down and but mostly for daytraders. You could be up 50% intraday already. Its dangerous to play pennies without stop losses in place, but you can get caught in the red if you set it too close to market value. This is basically how the manipulation happens; a wave of sells/shorts, catch a few stoplosses and weak hands, and ride the wave down. Then buy back. Rinse and repeat.

 

[dotman]

There have been some massive bear raids lately. They're scary, take out a ton of automated stop losses and completely legal. They come in waves, either by groups of daytraders or from massive sells from insitutitional buyers. The strong pennies are the ones that can rebound, and the best are the ones that can recover intra-day. SRSR was, at one point, just .001 from the green, and now is sitting .01 (5%) off. These runs are great for long positions to double down and but mostly for daytraders. You could be up 50% intraday already. Its dangerous not to play with stop losses in places, but you can get caught in the red if you set it too close to market value. This is basically how the manipulation happens; a wave of sells/shorts, catch a few stoplosses and weak hands, and ride the wave down. Then buy back. Rinse and repeat.

Interesting. Thanks for explaining.

 

[David Dodds]

added 5,000 HEB @ 2.35 to bring my 15,000 shares to 2.39 each

Added another 10,000 FREE at 1.83

 

[Mark Davis]

Wasn't someone pimping SRSR? Down about 35% right now

If you would have bought at the -35% mark, you'd be up about 25% now

Pretty crazy stuff...I wonder why it tanked like that so fast. Down 20% on the day right now.

Yeah, the volatility in this has been crazy the past two days. Its just MM shaking out weak hands and then agressively buying back. When this hit 20cents yesterday, they sold aggressively into the .16's then in the last ten minutes bought aggressively to .178. Damn, I wish I could have been awake to double down at .11.

I must be in the mood to gamble a bit. In SRSR @ .165.

 

[optionmaven]

LVS been bary bary gooood tooo me. MGM coming along fine now too. I hope they don't dilute anymore and they could easily hit 10 within a few months. Cramer has been touting WYNN again which is helping. Call/put ratios are good but volume is moderate to low. Without a market meltdown, LVS should easily hit 15 by end of yr, if not sooner.

 

[David Dodds]

Absolutely wild couple of days. I survived it by cost averaging and getting crazy, but frankly I think I was an idiot in most of these trades. The fact I had 35,000 HEB at one time is just insane. FREE screwed me, but I mostly have myself to blame because I could have gotten out at a very small loss.

Year to Date Profit = $144,047

Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses = +5,039

Holding:

69,600 FREE @ 1.88

15,000 HEB @ 2.39

 

[Otis]

I have a gut feeling that this is one of those days that starts down/flat, and then charges upward in the afternoon.

And the S&P pokes into positive territory

 

[optionmaven]

Absolutely wild couple of days. I survived it by cost averaging and getting crazy, but frankly I think I was an idiot in most of these trades. The fact I had 35,000 HEB at one time is just insane. FREE screwed me, but I mostly have myself to blame because I could have gotten out at a very small loss.

Year to Date Profit = $144,047

Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses = +5,039

Holding:

69,600 FREE @ 1.88

15,000 HEB @ 2.39

The Free move caught you by surprise, nothing you could have done there. On Heb, you should have just waited a little before you started buying. The previous floor had been 2 bucks even. I think you started buying at 3 and change. Prolly should have waited just a tad until it got some upward movement. It may have moved its floor up from this last run too. Looking to get back in when it goes below 2.10. If not, I'll have to just watch.