My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)

[The Ref]

Dodds did you get out? There was a big 25k+ share buy at $4.40 in the last minute of trading.Im predicting $4.70 tommorow. Im not gonna be able to sleep tonight. Ill be hearing foghorns and seagulls.

Moatloads

"Mansion" v2

$4.52 printed after hours.

No Poop.Lets hope for an up day and a big number.

 

[Mose]

Happy PRGN earnings day, everyone!

 

[Random]

Deal of the day for anyone interested in gold and silver. CEF is off about 4% today because of this. This is a nondiluteave offering which will be used to purchase bullion.

 

[David Dodds]

I am out of PRGN. Sold 15,000 at $4.48 and am thrilled. Average price was $4.04. Profit = 44 cents x 15,000 - 24 = $6,576. Virtually every other Dry Shiping stock is negative right now which is why I sold. I expect an excellent earnings report though. Back at 100% cash too. I am going to be patient here and wait for some sort of market correction (or stock correction) before I jump back in.

 

[paz1]

I followed Dodds out at 4.47 with my measly 300 shares, bought at 4.07.

$120 profit

 

[David Dodds]

and the Baltic Indexes continue to surge....

Baltic Supramax 1,958 (+2.14%)

Baltic Handysize 903 (+1.35%)

Baltic Dry 3,615 (+3.88%)

Baltic Capesize 6,113 (+6.05%)

Baltic Panamax 3,684 (+1.99%)

 

[itriple]

BDI up almost another 4%, approaching 1 year high.

 

[parasaurolophus]

itriple, mose, others where are you thinking exit point?

Is anybody holding through earnings?

 

[The Ref]

itriple, mose, others where are you thinking exit point? Is anybody holding through earnings?

I'm holding, but it's a gamble.

 

[David Dodds]

For everyone that made boatloads this year in oil, Natural Gas is going the same direction of the Super Contango.

Natural Gas Play

The best bet to avoid the effects of the Contango is to invest in Natural Gas companies themselves or an ETF like FCG that is a collection of these companies.

According to this article, the future price for Natural Gas is twice the current price just 11 months out. This is exactly like oil in that there is currently a large surplus of natural gas in storage. But as we saw with oil, if the price drops too low, rigs get shut down, etc. This created a rubber band type impact and the storage situation reversed quickly. I am predicting exactly the same thing with Natural Gas here. Especially with oil prices heading higher.

 

[David Dodds]

BDI up almost another 4%, approaching 1 year high.

Yes I think the Dry Shippers could be great bets for 2010 as well if these indexes can hold. PRGN CEO stated that they needed a BDI of about 2300 to be profitable. But his company is the major exception. Most of the companies need a BDI way higher than that.

 

[David Dodds]

Here is a better chart with real Natural Gas Contracts:

Natural Gas Futures

So right now, Dec 2009 Natural gas goes for $4.49. Feb 2011, the futures price is $6.62. So the market expects a 32.8% gain over 14 months. And I expect if Natural Gas goes up this much, FCG will go up a lot more as the Natural Gas companies beat expected earnings across the board.

 

[Mose]

itriple, mose, others where are you thinking exit point? Is anybody holding through earnings?

I am almost defintely holding through earnings now. If we close up 25 cents or so today though, I might sell. I still think this thing will get to the $4.75 range, but I was hoping for that pre-earnings. Now I'm hoping for it post-earnings.

 

[Alias]

I am out of PRGN. Sold 15,000 at $4.48 and am thrilled. Average price was $4.04. Profit = 44 cents x 15,000 - 24 = $6,576. Virtually every other Dry Shiping stock is negative right now which is why I sold. I expect an excellent earnings report though. Back at 100% cash too. I am going to be patient here and wait for some sort of market correction (or stock correction) before I jump back in.

EEV

 

[David Dodds]

FEED is getting crushed after their earnings report, but I think it's a big over-reaction. Stock is down to 4.15. If it gets to 4.12, I will be buying

 

[Boulder Toads]

itriple, mose, others where are you thinking exit point? Is anybody holding through earnings?

I am almost defintely holding through earnings now. If we close up 25 cents or so today though, I might sell. I still think this thing will get to the $4.75 range, but I was hoping for that pre-earnings. Now I'm hoping for it post-earnings.

Also holding. I'm averaged in at a position that seems below the where the chart tends to dip short-term. Despite watching it bounce between 4 and 4.75 a couple of times, I really have no intention of trying to day-trade this thing, because I just don't have the time and I'm not that good. As soon as I sell at 4.75, who's to say it doesn't keep ramping up like we all expect it to do in the future?Going to continue collecting the 5% divvy and wait it out for a while. This seems to be a good company, well positioned to really take advantage of the shipping market and (expected) future uptick in activity.

 

[David Dodds]

FEED is getting crushed after their earnings report, but I think it's a big over-reaction. Stock is down to 4.15. If it gets to 4.12, I will be buying

Took a smallish position here with 1,500 shares at 4.12. Will cost average down if it keeps sliding

 

[parasaurolophus]

itriple, mose, others where are you thinking exit point? Is anybody holding through earnings?

I am almost defintely holding through earnings now. If we close up 25 cents or so today though, I might sell. I still think this thing will get to the $4.75 range, but I was hoping for that pre-earnings. Now I'm hoping for it post-earnings.

Also holding. I'm averaged in at a position that seems below the where the chart tends to dip short-term. Despite watching it bounce between 4 and 4.75 a couple of times, I really have no intention of trying to day-trade this thing, because I just don't have the time and I'm not that good. As soon as I sell at 4.75, who's to say it doesn't keep ramping up like we all expect it to do in the future?Going to continue collecting the 5% divvy and wait it out for a while. This seems to be a good company, well positioned to really take advantage of the shipping market and (expected) future uptick in activity.

is it only a yearly dividend? I cant seem to find an exdiv date more recent than 8/210/09

 

[Boulder Toads]

itriple, mose, others where are you thinking exit point? Is anybody holding through earnings?

I am almost defintely holding through earnings now. If we close up 25 cents or so today though, I might sell. I still think this thing will get to the $4.75 range, but I was hoping for that pre-earnings. Now I'm hoping for it post-earnings.

Also holding. I'm averaged in at a position that seems below the where the chart tends to dip short-term. Despite watching it bounce between 4 and 4.75 a couple of times, I really have no intention of trying to day-trade this thing, because I just don't have the time and I'm not that good. As soon as I sell at 4.75, who's to say it doesn't keep ramping up like we all expect it to do in the future?Going to continue collecting the 5% divvy and wait it out for a while. This seems to be a good company, well positioned to really take advantage of the shipping market and (expected) future uptick in activity.

is it only a yearly dividend? I cant seem to find an exdiv date more recent than 8/210/09

It's quarterly at $0.05. I got mine last Q.

 

[itriple]

itriple, mose, others where are you thinking exit point? Is anybody holding through earnings?

I am almost defintely holding through earnings now. If we close up 25 cents or so today though, I might sell. I still think this thing will get to the $4.75 range, but I was hoping for that pre-earnings. Now I'm hoping for it post-earnings.

Im holding. Im already sitting on a nice gain. So I can stomach it going back down to $4.00 (its hard bottom). I really like this longterm even if it doesnt do much after earnings.Im at 10k shares and my buddy is at 15k.

 

[The Ref]

FEED is getting crushed after their earnings report, but I think it's a big over-reaction. Stock is down to 4.15. If it gets to 4.12, I will be buying

Took a smallish position here with 1,500 shares at 4.12. Will cost average down if it keeps sliding

Yeah - they missed and only made 7 cents. Thats still 30ish cents a year and at $4 that a good deal. They shold start to make more coin next year as hog prices go up. I think this is a good time to buy FEED as well.

 

[David Dodds]

FEED is getting crushed after their earnings report, but I think it's a big over-reaction. Stock is down to 4.15. If it gets to 4.12, I will be buying

Took a smallish position here with 1,500 shares at 4.12. Will cost average down if it keeps sliding

Yeah - they missed and only made 7 cents. Thats still 30ish cents a year and at $4 that a good deal. They shold start to make more coin next year as hog prices go up. I think this is a good time to buy FEED as well.

These are the quotes I liked:In discussing AgFeed's animal nutrients business, Junhong Xiong, AgFeed's Chief Executive Officer, asserted, "Our revenues of $17.1 million in the third quarter of 2009 were significantly higher, reaching approximately 80% of the revenues we posted for the first half of 2009. We expect that our animal nutrients business segment will remain strong through the end of 2009, meeting and exceeding our projections of 100,000 metric tons sold in 2009." Mr. Xiong added, "AgFeed is responding to the market demand for "complete" feed with plans to upgrade and expand our production capabilities in this key market segment. We believe this will provide an opportunity for us to triple our animal nutrient business revenues by the end of 2011."Dr. Li continued, "Earlier this year we announced our intention to adopt the Western model of hog production. We are well on our way to a full transition in 2009 to that model with our new alliance with Hypor, the formation of AgFeed International Protein Technology, our joint venture with M2P2 LLC, and our ongoing investment in upgrading our existing farms. As we continue to invest in our genetics programs, improve our bio-security and upgrade our environmental protection systems over the next 25 months we believe that AgFeed will become the standard for top quality, green-certified pork in China."((((((((( My Take ))))))))))They are spending a lot of money this year to convert to a sustainable high-profit business going forward. This company is a bargain at these prices. They are expanding market share and hog prices should be significantly higher next year.

 

[Norman Einstein]

What makes people think hog prices are going higher?

 

[David Dodds]

What makes people think hog prices are going higher?

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/LH.html

 

[The Ref]

FEED is getting crushed after their earnings report, but I think it's a big over-reaction. Stock is down to 4.15. If it gets to 4.12, I will be buying

Took a smallish position here with 1,500 shares at 4.12. Will cost average down if it keeps sliding

Yeah - they missed and only made 7 cents. Thats still 30ish cents a year and at $4 that a good deal. They shold start to make more coin next year as hog prices go up. I think this is a good time to buy FEED as well.

These are the quotes I liked:In discussing AgFeed's animal nutrients business, Junhong Xiong, AgFeed's Chief Executive Officer, asserted, "Our revenues of $17.1 million in the third quarter of 2009 were significantly higher, reaching approximately 80% of the revenues we posted for the first half of 2009. We expect that our animal nutrients business segment will remain strong through the end of 2009, meeting and exceeding our projections of 100,000 metric tons sold in 2009." Mr. Xiong added, "AgFeed is responding to the market demand for "complete" feed with plans to upgrade and expand our production capabilities in this key market segment. We believe this will provide an opportunity for us to triple our animal nutrient business revenues by the end of 2011."

Dr. Li continued, "Earlier this year we announced our intention to adopt the Western model of hog production. We are well on our way to a full transition in 2009 to that model with our new alliance with Hypor, the formation of AgFeed International Protein Technology, our joint venture with M2P2 LLC, and our ongoing investment in upgrading our existing farms. As we continue to invest in our genetics programs, improve our bio-security and upgrade our environmental protection systems over the next 25 months we believe that AgFeed will become the standard for top quality, green-certified pork in China."

((((((((( My Take ))))))))))

They are spending a lot of money this year to convert to a sustainable high-profit business going forward. This company is a bargain at these prices. They are expanding market share and hog prices should be significantly higher next year.

If they had a lot of debt I'd be worried about this company - but they have about as clean a balance sheet as it gets. This stock will see $6 at some point next year IMHO.

 

[NYG Endzone]

Will RIMM continue to rebound?

 

[Mose]

getting cold feet about holding my PRGN.....1 hour to go

 

[siffoin]

getting cold feet about holding my PRGN.....1 hour to go

If you planed your trade...then trade the plan.Good luck.

 

[parasaurolophus]

getting cold feet about holding my PRGN.....1 hour to go

if it makes you feel any better PRGN closed at the high of the day the last time they released earnings.

 

[parasaurolophus]

getting cold feet about holding my PRGN.....1 hour to go

if it makes you feel any better PRGN closed at the high of the day the last time they released earnings.

actually I am wrong. day before it did. Sorry crappy touch screen mouse.They did spike way up in after hours though.

 

[Mose]

it is up while all the other shippers are down. Hopefully tomorrow is an up day for the entire sector and PRGN will lead the pack.

Volume seems really low for it being earnings day though...

 

[The Ref]

getting cold feet about holding my PRGN.....1 hour to go

if it makes you feel any better PRGN closed at the high of the day the last time they released earnings.

actually I am wrong. day before it did. Sorry crappy touch screen mouse.They did spike way up in after hours though.

I remember that well. What happened was they released the high EPS number that beat everyone's expectations and the street went crazy. Then when everyone saw the numbers the next morning they realized that the EPS was high because they had not sold all the shares out yet and it was the divisor that was small, not the numerator being big.Hopefully we wont have any of those games to worry about this time.

 

[The Ref]

Just because last time it seemed like nobody knew if the results of PRGN were any good or not - Yahoo Finance has the folowing as the Avg estimate.....

Revenue $38.4M

EPS Estimate $.30

 

[george]

So, general question. With the market up pretty much to it's year long high, is now the time to rebalance my mutual fund positions? I guess I just answered my own question. Any reason not to?

 

[optionmaven]

FEED is getting crushed after their earnings report, but I think it's a big over-reaction. Stock is down to 4.15. If it gets to 4.12, I will be buying

Took a smallish position here with 1,500 shares at 4.12. Will cost average down if it keeps sliding

Yeah - they missed and only made 7 cents. Thats still 30ish cents a year and at $4 that a good deal. They shold start to make more coin next year as hog prices go up. I think this is a good time to buy FEED as well.

These are the quotes I liked:In discussing AgFeed's animal nutrients business, Junhong Xiong, AgFeed's Chief Executive Officer, asserted, "Our revenues of $17.1 million in the third quarter of 2009 were significantly higher, reaching approximately 80% of the revenues we posted for the first half of 2009. We expect that our animal nutrients business segment will remain strong through the end of 2009, meeting and exceeding our projections of 100,000 metric tons sold in 2009." Mr. Xiong added, "AgFeed is responding to the market demand for "complete" feed with plans to upgrade and expand our production capabilities in this key market segment. We believe this will provide an opportunity for us to triple our animal nutrient business revenues by the end of 2011."

Dr. Li continued, "Earlier this year we announced our intention to adopt the Western model of hog production. We are well on our way to a full transition in 2009 to that model with our new alliance with Hypor, the formation of AgFeed International Protein Technology, our joint venture with M2P2 LLC, and our ongoing investment in upgrading our existing farms. As we continue to invest in our genetics programs, improve our bio-security and upgrade our environmental protection systems over the next 25 months we believe that AgFeed will become the standard for top quality, green-certified pork in China."

((((((((( My Take ))))))))))

They are spending a lot of money this year to convert to a sustainable high-profit business going forward. This company is a bargain at these prices. They are expanding market share and hog prices should be significantly higher next year.

If they had a lot of debt I'd be worried about this company - but they have about as clean a balance sheet as it gets. This stock will see $6 at some point next year IMHO.

I also believe this is a good buy here at 4 and change. Have to imagine its the floor on this stock barring major market meltdown. 6 is very reasonable and i think it could easily push 8. Currently not invested in it, but looking to add it for a little diversification.

 

[Mose]

well, I'm officially holding til earnings now! :crossesfingers:

 

[KGB]

Good luck to all the PRGNers

 

[optionmaven]

Will RIMM continue to rebound?

It was a huge buy when it got sold off to 55. Still seems like a relatively safe buy here at 65. I would temper my expectations about it getting to 80 but 75 could be in its semi near future. I currently am not holding though i do like it. Feel like i'm overexposed in this sector with my other holdings.

 

[Alias]

So, general question. With the market up pretty much to it's year long high, is now the time to rebalance my mutual fund positions? I guess I just answered my own question. Any reason not to?

(assuming 401k) You can, just be careful of trading out of any new positions within 30 days since they will count that as a round trip, I think you are allowed 3 RT's per year and then your account actions could get frozen.

 

[Sand]

I haven't checked in here for a bit, and you guys are still talking the same tickers. Hope it is working out.

I follow a bit slower signals. Bought EPP at the end of July and sold today for a 22% profit. Flipped it out for ILF.

Been a good year so far. My strategy of sinking money into boring MLPs, REITs, and preferred stocks has paid off well. SPY is up 14.5% so far this year. My discretionary portfolio is up 38.6%.

 

[NYG Endzone]

PRGN 3Q EPS 40c

 

[NYG Endzone]

Paragon Shipping 3Q Rev $38.1M

 

[Mose]

PRGN numbers look great to me!

Let's see if that matters to the market though.....

 

[Boulder Toads]

PRGN numbers look great to me!Let's see if that matters to the market though.....

My thoughts exactly ... at face value, seems like a great quarterly report!!

 

[David Dodds]

congrats PRGN holders. Looking strong in the after-hours.

 

[NYG Endzone]

I was able to snatch some after hours at $4.45, wish i got more than 200 shares

 

[The Z Machine]

I held through earnings. I'll likely sell once this thing gets back to 4.70, hopefully tomorrow.

 

[itriple]

I like what i see. hopefully it gets reflected in price tommorow.

If it doesnt go up quick Im holding for divy. I dont have any other place that is better than this right now.

 

[The Ref]

PRGN now has 50% of the long term debt covered by cash on hand - and they should chip away at that $20M or so every quarter going forward. They could have enough cash on hand to pay all debts in 2 years.

Great long term prospects for this one.

 

[Boulder Toads]

PRGN now has 50% of the long term debt covered by cash on hand - and they should chip away at that $20M or so every quarter going forward. They could have enough cash on hand to pay all debts in 2 years. Great long term prospects for this one.

Agreed ... I'm having a hard time coming up with a reason to sell vs. hold. Like itriple said ... I dont have any other place that is better than this right now ... 5% divvy included.