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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Great volume, great movement today for the PRGN holders ... now to see if we can test & hold this 4.75-ish level. I'm still holding strong here ...
Under my "wish and a prayer" gamble category, I recently bought 3MM shares of MSFT.PK (someone mentioned it here a while back) at 0.0001. The volume has definetely been percolating the last week or so, and it's temporarily hit 0.0002 a few times. Looking to sell for a quick double-up, but will probably be tough to unload the shares until it gets stable at 0.0002 or hits 0.0003. Pure gamblin money here, but the volume uptick has been interesting nonetheless ...
Under my "wish and a prayer" gamble category, I recently bought 3MM shares of MSFT.PK (someone mentioned it here a while back) at 0.0001. The volume has definetely been percolating the last week or so, and it's temporarily hit 0.0002 a few times. Looking to sell for a quick double-up, but will probably be tough to unload the shares until it gets stable at 0.0002 or hits 0.0003. Pure gamblin money here, but the volume uptick has been interesting nonetheless ...
optionmaven
Footballguy
It is said you shouldn't buy options on stocks that are less than 5 bucks. I will sometimes ignore that rule, but do think it is a good one in general. Cramer says C has a bookmark value of 5.65 but also that the stock will hit 10-12 by 2011-12. I owned C earlier in the yr (bought in march at 1.50, and sold it in may at 3+. I bought/sold some 2.50 options along the way but it was about a washout for me. Made some money, lost some money. Personally, C doesn't interest me anymore. I can find better games to play. So can you. If you are going to go with it regardless, I wouldn't go above the 7.50 strike price personally.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
What are you playing now (not that I'm doubting you - I'm just getting into options)? Looking at the "last trade" on those C calls could I buy 17.50 calls and sell 20.00 calls at the same price? I mean there's miniscule odds of C going above 17.50 by 1/2011, but if I am only out commission with a chance to make thousands could you pass that up?
optionmaven
Footballguy
I'm holding options of MS, JPM, MGM, LVS, APPLe, GOOG, Palm, and WYNN. Own stock in BAC, LVS, ACLS. Things that i like however that i don't own presently are FEED, RIMM, BAIDU, X. Running out of time, but will make a small list of stocks that i like in a 3-4 month time period. A Technical friend of mine had some interesting news and saying it might be a good time to pull it all off the table in January. We'll see.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Please share your options strategies and all about when/how/why you get into a particular position.
ODoyleRules
Footballguy
me too. I was so mad at myself when I thought about selling in late October only to watch it go back to 4.0-ish last week. Didn't want that to happen again. Now I'd like to see it get back to 5.4 which is the price point where I bought some of my other shares.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Ha ha, welcome aboard the MSTF train! I bought my .0001 shares about 3-4 months ago and have been waiting for it to bust loose. It's comforting to see it hit .0002 a few times, but it still has a ways to go. The general belief is that this company is a dilution machine headed for a reverse split. However, i too am holding that $300 lottery "WTF" lottery ticket. The CEO David Walter's wife is Mimi Walters, a state senator from California. I'd like to think that a state senator would not allow her husband to run a scam company, but that's probably wishful thinking. Politicians can get away with anything. Anyhow, they are both very wealthy and connected so this sub penny has as good a chance as any, I guess.
bigfishboy
Footballguy
It took me a month to buy 500K of MSTF at .0001, and I have had a sell at .0002 for the last 2 months. I know the volume makes it look like a quick double is possible, but I won't touch this again.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
you bought 50 dollars worth of stock to try to double to 100?Why not just hold the 50 as a lotto ticket in case something ever happens. Their form d that they filed with the SEC states they have revenues between 5-25 million. At least they exist for a purpose other than to sell their stock.bigfishboy said:
David Dodds
Administrator
This is what excites me about what they are doing:
Gerard Daignault, AgFeed's Chief Operating Officer, commenting on the Company's hog business, said "AgFeed is focused on bio-security and expanding its breeding hog inventory. The recent pure lines stocking of the Lushan Breeder Farm has produced record birth-rate results. AgFeed's second breeder farm, Ganda (Guangxi Province) will begin its pure lines stocking in December. The building of the Wunnin nucleus farm located in Jiangxi Province was completed on November 3 and will also be stocked with world class Hypor genetic breeding stock." Daignault added, "AgFeed's first Western-model farm located in Da Hua (Guangxi Province) opened this morning China time, with a groundbreaking ceremony sponsored by the PRC regional government. We currently anticipate that these facilities will house 10,000 sows producing 250,000 hogs by 2011 helping to meet the goal of selling 2.5 million hogs from 2009 to 2011." Edward Pazdro, Chief Financial Officer of AgFeed International Protein Technology, reported, "Dr. Songyan Li is working with regional Chinese governments in targeted areas to introduce our joint venture concept. He is pursuing the identification and selection of additional farm sites and negotiation of agreements with local government officials, banks and farmers that will provide us with the opportunity to bring the success of our experience in Da Hua to other locations, affording AgFeed and AgFeed International Protein Technology the opportunity to expand their Western-model hog production model to new sites."
((((((((( My View )))))))
The Chinese love pork. The Chinese also have serious available land issues with the over-population of people. Mostly, that country has a bunch of small farms that produce the hogs. Agfeed supplies the feed product, but they realize that the smart approach is to use genetics engineering to maximize breeding hogs within the space limitations of a normal farm. They buy some farms and head down this path. Hog prices fall and these little farms are struggling even more. Agfeed partners with a bunch of these providing their feed product and eventually buys up more and more of these farms. The genetics work is spot on and they now have a model that gives them better hogs (higher birth rates, bigger hogs) on some of these farms. This company has 36 Million in cash, virtually no debt and has shown it can raise money easily. It seems pretty obvious to me that they will continue to buy up the mom and pop hog farms and changing out the normal hogs with their "breeder pigs". Thus cutting themselves into a bigger and bigger marketshare of this segment. I personally think their gameplan is spot on.
Gerard Daignault, AgFeed's Chief Operating Officer, commenting on the Company's hog business, said "AgFeed is focused on bio-security and expanding its breeding hog inventory. The recent pure lines stocking of the Lushan Breeder Farm has produced record birth-rate results. AgFeed's second breeder farm, Ganda (Guangxi Province) will begin its pure lines stocking in December. The building of the Wunnin nucleus farm located in Jiangxi Province was completed on November 3 and will also be stocked with world class Hypor genetic breeding stock." Daignault added, "AgFeed's first Western-model farm located in Da Hua (Guangxi Province) opened this morning China time, with a groundbreaking ceremony sponsored by the PRC regional government. We currently anticipate that these facilities will house 10,000 sows producing 250,000 hogs by 2011 helping to meet the goal of selling 2.5 million hogs from 2009 to 2011." Edward Pazdro, Chief Financial Officer of AgFeed International Protein Technology, reported, "Dr. Songyan Li is working with regional Chinese governments in targeted areas to introduce our joint venture concept. He is pursuing the identification and selection of additional farm sites and negotiation of agreements with local government officials, banks and farmers that will provide us with the opportunity to bring the success of our experience in Da Hua to other locations, affording AgFeed and AgFeed International Protein Technology the opportunity to expand their Western-model hog production model to new sites."
((((((((( My View )))))))
The Chinese love pork. The Chinese also have serious available land issues with the over-population of people. Mostly, that country has a bunch of small farms that produce the hogs. Agfeed supplies the feed product, but they realize that the smart approach is to use genetics engineering to maximize breeding hogs within the space limitations of a normal farm. They buy some farms and head down this path. Hog prices fall and these little farms are struggling even more. Agfeed partners with a bunch of these providing their feed product and eventually buys up more and more of these farms. The genetics work is spot on and they now have a model that gives them better hogs (higher birth rates, bigger hogs) on some of these farms. This company has 36 Million in cash, virtually no debt and has shown it can raise money easily. It seems pretty obvious to me that they will continue to buy up the mom and pop hog farms and changing out the normal hogs with their "breeder pigs". Thus cutting themselves into a bigger and bigger marketshare of this segment. I personally think their gameplan is spot on.
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The Ref
Footballguy
All good stuff here, but it would be nice to see a .10-.15 quarter and not the .05-.07 quarters they have put out this year.
David Dodds
Administrator
Spinning this even another way. Mom and pop hog farm has no plans to sell their farm. Agfeed drops by and shows them how they have been successful. Breeder pigs genetically superior and the use of their feed product (also engineered to yield the best hogs). Agfeed gives the farm some breeder pigs and locks down the mom and pop to buying their feed/protein supplements. When the breeder pig really does a lot better, this farm likely tries to get more (via purchase) or looks to expand this partnership with Agfeed. Win/win on so many levels as long as they truly are producing better hogs through genetics and their feed product.
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
Just about back to even now with my shares of FREE.
Up big with the announced loan increase and potential purchase of more ships.
Up big with the announced loan increase and potential purchase of more ships.
David Dodds
Administrator
I agree, but this is still pretty early in their conversion process to the Western model. Hog prices also nose-dived because of the economy and Swine Flu news. China's economy looks to be robust again. I think the results will start showing up soon.
David Dodds
Administrator
I really don't think that will chage the game all that much. With oil prices up, transporting pigs around the world would be expensive.
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The Ref
Footballguy
I posted on this ticker about a month or so ago, if some of you feel like a gamble check out North America Palladium.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PAL
In short this is a mining company that primarily operates two different palladium mines in Canada. Other then Russia, they are more or less the only primary Palladium miner around. They shut down operations last year when Palladium crossed $300. In addition to the two mines they have a huge explored area that is very Palladium rich. They also operate some gold mines so they are not 100% reliant on Palladium.
What makes this company interesting is the Palladium mines are still closed and the management line has been "we will reopen the mines when PAL stays between 325-350". Well Palladium has been over 325 for quite some time and actually hit over $358 last night. They are announcing earnings after the bell today. Some are expecting that they may announce that they will reopen the mine. When this company does reopen the mine this stock is going to pop.
Not bad for a <$3 stock.
I bought it as a compliment to my Gold/Silver/Platinum as Palladium bullion is hard to come by, and it's turned into one of my favorite upside stocks because I feel like they are not going to keep the mines closed for much longer.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PAL
In short this is a mining company that primarily operates two different palladium mines in Canada. Other then Russia, they are more or less the only primary Palladium miner around. They shut down operations last year when Palladium crossed $300. In addition to the two mines they have a huge explored area that is very Palladium rich. They also operate some gold mines so they are not 100% reliant on Palladium.
What makes this company interesting is the Palladium mines are still closed and the management line has been "we will reopen the mines when PAL stays between 325-350". Well Palladium has been over 325 for quite some time and actually hit over $358 last night. They are announcing earnings after the bell today. Some are expecting that they may announce that they will reopen the mine. When this company does reopen the mine this stock is going to pop.
Not bad for a <$3 stock.
I bought it as a compliment to my Gold/Silver/Platinum as Palladium bullion is hard to come by, and it's turned into one of my favorite upside stocks because I feel like they are not going to keep the mines closed for much longer.
David Dodds
Administrator
bought 500 FCG at 16.68. Think I will turn on my gas heater now.
The Ref
Footballguy
I'll give this to King Dollar, it's been resilient the past two weeks. Off the low and all the way back up to a 75.65. Problem is the S&P is priced as though the USD cracked 74. Something should give here by the end of the day, either the S&P has to come down 1% or the USD has to weaken by 1ish%.
Once again the USD channels between 76.00 and 74.75. I won't feel 100% comfortable betting the market either way till it breaks one way or the other.
Once again the USD channels between 76.00 and 74.75. I won't feel 100% comfortable betting the market either way till it breaks one way or the other.
siffoin
Footballguy
At the top of the hour I got a Trend Reversal on the EUR/USD Pairs trade. Here's a chart.http://chart.ly/yw37ev
I'd expect some run back towards the 1.490 line, but for short term future it looks like the dollar is going to rise.
David Dodds
Administrator
FEED just hit my target price of $4.25. I have 10,000 shares that will be shipped at this price if it stays there or goes higher. I still think this thing has legs (obviously to move this well on a down day), but I am good with getting to mostly cash right now too (holding 500 shares of FCG).
David Dodds
Administrator
Looks like I spoke too soon. I did sell 1800 at 4.25, before it moved lower
The Ref
Footballguy
That last EPS number looks ugly.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Bah.
I got greedy and set my PRGN sell point at 4.77. I was two cents short today. Damn. I really don't want this thing to tank again back to 4.40 level like it seems to do all the time. I've been waiting to unload the PRGN I've held for months now.
Maybe I'll set one of those "trailing stop" things. Can someone explain to me how this works on Zecco?
I got greedy and set my PRGN sell point at 4.77. I was two cents short today. Damn. I really don't want this thing to tank again back to 4.40 level like it seems to do all the time. I've been waiting to unload the PRGN I've held for months now.
Maybe I'll set one of those "trailing stop" things. Can someone explain to me how this works on Zecco?
Mose
Footballguy
well, they didn't reopen the mine. The stock is down almost 5% so far this morning. Looking at the historic prices, it seems to fluctuate between $2.70-$3.10 range. So is this a buy now around the $2.70 range even though they aren't opening the mine?
Reaper
Footballguy
The Ref
Footballguy
I have 1300 at $2.79. If it trails down to $2.65 or so I'm going to double down.... So long as Palladium continues to run up.I fully expect to wake up to great news one of these days, but I'm willing to admit that it may not be till 1Q next year.
David Dodds
Administrator
BDI continuing to surge. The markets are heading higher in my opinion
Baltic Supramax 2,147 (+2.97%)
Baltic Handysize 970 (+2.75%)
Baltic Dry 4,111 (+3.97%)
Baltic Capesize 7,183 (+4.89%)
Baltic Panamax 3,978 (+2.61%)
Baltic Supramax 2,147 (+2.97%)
Baltic Handysize 970 (+2.75%)
Baltic Dry 4,111 (+3.97%)
Baltic Capesize 7,183 (+4.89%)
Baltic Panamax 3,978 (+2.61%)
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David Dodds
Administrator
More on the BDI surge. This index has been up the last 12 trading days:
Nov 13, 2009 (4111)
Nov 12, 2009 (3954)
Nov 11, 2009 (3748)
Nov 10, 2009 (3615)
Nov 09, 2009 (3480)
Nov 06, 2009 (3393)
Nov 05, 2009 (3335)
Nov 04, 2009 (3295)
Nov 03, 2009 (3247)
Nov 02, 2009 (3185)
Oct 30, 2009 (3103)
Oct 29, 2009 (3013)
Oct 28, 2009 (2986)
Nov 13, 2009 (4111)
Nov 12, 2009 (3954)
Nov 11, 2009 (3748)
Nov 10, 2009 (3615)
Nov 09, 2009 (3480)
Nov 06, 2009 (3393)
Nov 05, 2009 (3335)
Nov 04, 2009 (3295)
Nov 03, 2009 (3247)
Nov 02, 2009 (3185)
Oct 30, 2009 (3103)
Oct 29, 2009 (3013)
Oct 28, 2009 (2986)
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David Dodds
Administrator
I added my 1800 FEED back at 4.08 (that I had sold for 4.25 yesterday). Profit = .17 x 1800 -12 = $294. I am back to 10,000 FEED at 4.08 here
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
After considering various strategies for the $35,000 I’m going to be playing with (after I come up with a legitimate strategy), I’ve tentatively come up with the following, please feel free to comment:
Strategy
Hold stocks with low volatility and steady, high dividends. Enhance income by selling calls each quarter. Effectively this will be a long term covered-call strategy. I think with steady, mature companies I can rely on steady stock appreciation with limited downside while capitalizing on writing calls and receiving dividends.
Tentative Stock Selection (Quarterly Div)
ABT (.40)
WMT (.27)
JNJ (.49)
PG (.44)
MCD (.50)
I’d obviously want to look for optimal entry, and I’m not sure this is the best time, so I might ease into these positions in the next few months if I go with this strategy.
Stock & Contract Quantity
I would buy 100 shares of each stock, and sell 1 out of the money call contract per quarter. I need to do more research, but I’m estimating I can get ~$150 per contract each quarter.
100 Shares of each stock at current prices and yearly commissions (including options) is ~$29,733.
Returns
Dividend and call writing income alone should be ~$3840 or 13% return. Any stock appreciation is added.
Downside protection
I have downside protection of nearly 13% due to the dividend and call writing. Meaning if the stocks lose 13% of their value, I should at least break even, even if I don’t manage my positions at all.
Managing Positions & Questions
This is where I could use some help. I need to do more research on liquidating covered calls and rolling them with long call spreads & diagonal call spreads, along with any other management methods.
Other
I figure I’ll take some gambles with the additional $5,000 left in the portfolio. For example, I’ll take a gamble on some Jan 11 Citigroup calls. I figure I’ll be able to afford throwing down a few hundred dollars in order to have the chance to earn $30,000 or more in 1 trade.
Strategy
Hold stocks with low volatility and steady, high dividends. Enhance income by selling calls each quarter. Effectively this will be a long term covered-call strategy. I think with steady, mature companies I can rely on steady stock appreciation with limited downside while capitalizing on writing calls and receiving dividends.
Tentative Stock Selection (Quarterly Div)
ABT (.40)
WMT (.27)
JNJ (.49)
PG (.44)
MCD (.50)
I’d obviously want to look for optimal entry, and I’m not sure this is the best time, so I might ease into these positions in the next few months if I go with this strategy.
Stock & Contract Quantity
I would buy 100 shares of each stock, and sell 1 out of the money call contract per quarter. I need to do more research, but I’m estimating I can get ~$150 per contract each quarter.
100 Shares of each stock at current prices and yearly commissions (including options) is ~$29,733.
Returns
Dividend and call writing income alone should be ~$3840 or 13% return. Any stock appreciation is added.
Downside protection
I have downside protection of nearly 13% due to the dividend and call writing. Meaning if the stocks lose 13% of their value, I should at least break even, even if I don’t manage my positions at all.
Managing Positions & Questions
This is where I could use some help. I need to do more research on liquidating covered calls and rolling them with long call spreads & diagonal call spreads, along with any other management methods.
Other
I figure I’ll take some gambles with the additional $5,000 left in the portfolio. For example, I’ll take a gamble on some Jan 11 Citigroup calls. I figure I’ll be able to afford throwing down a few hundred dollars in order to have the chance to earn $30,000 or more in 1 trade.
David Dodds
Administrator
As long as these companies don't cut their dividends, I think this is a very good strategy. I think the way the BDI has moved up so much that you could do the same with Dry Shipping companies (less dividend so closer to 5-7% divended return, but likely with companies that could appreciate significantly in stock price).
None_More_Black
Footballguy
Covered call writing works best in flat, low volatility markets. You have to ask yourself if you see the market as this type going forward. Good article on some of the down sides on a covered call investment strategy.Problems with covered call strategy
bigfishboy
Footballguy
Anyone else stillin SRSR? Up 50% today on no news I can find.
I am almost back to even.
I am almost back to even.
Yeah...my $43 is now worth $60, although I got in when the tip was posted at 15 cents or so. It's either 50 cents a share or bust for me.
TheWalkmen
Footballguy
Agreed that the strategy works best in flat, low volatile markets. I thought by choosing low volatile stocks, however, I could mitigate some of the risk. I looked at 5 yr charts for each of the stocks listed, and although they all dropped last Mar- Apr, they all held their value quite well. Additionally, it does seem a little silly to cap upside potential and leave a great deal of downside risk, but again I think the stock selection mitigates a lot of that risk.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
Covered call writing can be a good strategy. You might look to sell naked puts on the basket of stocks you are interested in. Same return as a covered call and if you get assigned should the stocks go down, you can just start your covered call strategy then. Doing this on a decent sized down day is a good entry point.TheWalkmen said:
