What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

My Very Early 2011 Dynasty rankings (1 Viewer)

madd futher

Footballguy
Just for discussion, here's my pre-draft dynasty rankings of QBs. I posted these without commentary. I'm not going to argue the merits of where these guys are ranked within each tier (In other words, it matters very little whether I have Rodgers or Vick ranked first, and I could argue equally strongly about any order of Brees through Brady) but I have given a lot of thought to the tiers I've ranked these guys in.

Tier 1

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Mike Vick

3. Drew Brees

4. Philip Rivers

5. Peyton Manning

6. Tom Brady

Tier 2

7. Ben Roethlisberger

8. Tony Romo

9. Matt Ryan

10. Josh Freeman

11. Matt Schaub

12. Jay Cutler

Tier 3

13. Sam Bradford

14. Tim Tebow

15. Matthew Stafford

16. Eli Manning

17. Joe Flacco

18. Kyle Orton

Tier 4

19. Joe Webb

20. John Skelton

Feel free to comment or question my sanity.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Missing a lot of dudes between Orton and Webb.

Cassel, Kolb, Sanchize, Young, Fitzpatrick

Other than that good effort. Too high on Cutler.

 
Thanks, and you are right, it appears that I left a whole tier out. But that was pretty much by intent.

I'm just not very excited about any of the names you've mentioned as anything other than a very weak QB2. I'd rather take a flier on very raw but talented guys like Webb (reminds me of a very raw Mike Vick) or Skelton (reminds me of a raw Big Ben). The real "tier 4" guys I try very hard to avoid having on my dynasty team. I have such little enthusiasm for that group, I personally would want to have Webb and Skelton on my team ahead of those guys just for their potential.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Nice work. Similar to what I have in my head (and about to put on paper(. Looking forward to the other positions.

 
How are Tebow and Orton both going to be Top 18 QBs??

Also, Eli is wayyy too low at #16. He was QB8 in my league this year, and that was with Nicks missing 3+ games and Smith missing 5 games - AT THE SAME TIME...I dont think he's all that good of an actual QB, but he's a Top 10 fantasy QB for the next 5 years as much as anybody besides Rodgers.

ETA: as much as anybody besides Rodgers and Rivers

 
Last edited by a moderator:
How are Tebow and Orton both going to be Top 18 QBs??

Also, Eli is wayyy too low at #16. He was QB8 in my league this year, and that was with Nicks missing 3+ games and Smith missing 5 games - AT THE SAME TIME...I dont think he's all that good of an actual QB, but he's a Top 10 fantasy QB for the next 5 years as much as anybody besides Rodgers.

ETA: as much as anybody besides Rodgers and Rivers
I wouldn't expect Orton to sit behind Tebow for very long
 
I would swap Shaub and Ryan and Vick and Brady.

A healthy Sahub, AJ, Daniels next year with a better defense should improve Shaub's numbers. It would be hard to crack some of the guys ahead of him, but #8 sounds very safe for him next year at least. I'm pretty much all in on Houston Texans offensive players next year. They have something that works and works well and the injuries to AJ, Daniels, Mario, DeMeco, and Shaub getting banged up really derailed them. Expect better production across the board next season (even Arian).

History shows us repeatedly, even with super smart and great QBs like Brady and Manning, that special years of achievement are not duplicated. Teams have all season to dissect what a guy was doing and take it away and even if something that worked 16 weeks one year only works 12-13 weeks the next year, the impact is felt. The Bears and Giants clearly laid out a blue print on how to wear Vick down. He will still be great and top shelf but in order for him to physically make it through next year, something will have to change so some of the running or exposed plays will have to give. On the flip side, Brady might be unstoppable next year. The defense is getting better and, to be honest, the Patriots don't punt a lot now. With the rookies taking the next step, Welker being further removed from injury and 9 (NINE) draft picks, it seems there is a good chance the Pats improve. You have to keep in mind how much value those picks have. those could translate into a great player coming to New England in the offseason and there are key FAs available such as VJAX and DWIl. I'm not a Patriots fans talking them up but I recognize a fine running machine running here.

 
There is an awful lot of space between Ryan and Flacco for two QBs with nearly identical statistics and career paths.

 
There is an awful lot of space between Ryan and Flacco for two QBs with nearly identical statistics and career paths.
He only has them one tier apart, and I definitely see that tier differentiation despite the similar stats, pedigree, and team history. I'd much rather have Ryan. Looking forward not back how do you think the situations will evolve? Baltimore: I expect Rice to be good for another 2 or 3 years. I expect the Baltimore defense to be good. I expect Boldin, Mason, and Heap to slow down or retire. I expect Flacco's production to be about the same as it was this year.Atlanta: I expect Turner to be a below average back next year. I expect the Atlanta defense to be average. I expect White to be elite for 3 to 5 years. I expect them to draft a WR early soon. I expect Ryan will throw a lot more similar to how the SD situation evolved around LT's last few years.
 
too low on Bradford, barring a sophomore slump ala Matt Ryan, this guy is going to be a stud going forward.
:goodposting: If one were truly drafting a dynasty startup today, Romo is the only tier 2 name I'd take ahead of Bradford and I'm not even sure about that. Bradford joined some VERY eilte company with what he was able to do as a rookie.
 
too low on Bradford, barring a sophomore slump ala Matt Ryan, this guy is going to be a stud going forward.
:lmao: If one were truly drafting a dynasty startup today, Romo is the only tier 2 name I'd take ahead of Bradford and I'm not even sure about that. Bradford joined some VERY eilte company with what he was able to do as a rookie.
Really? Because I am pretty sure both Flacco and Ryan did it not too long ago. Not only that, but he averaged 6 YPC. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him on my NFL team, but taking him over guys like Schaub is a stretch - Schaub is the 12th QB in history to throw for 4,000 yards, back-to-back. Tebow should be ahead of Bradford as both are risks, but based on the unique ability to score points on the ground, Tebow's ceiling is much higher. (6>4;10<25)
 
too low on Bradford, barring a sophomore slump ala Matt Ryan, this guy is going to be a stud going forward.
:goodposting: If one were truly drafting a dynasty startup today, Romo is the only tier 2 name I'd take ahead of Bradford and I'm not even sure about that. Bradford joined some VERY eilte company with what he was able to do as a rookie.
Really? Because I am pretty sure both Flacco and Ryan did it not too long ago. Not only that, but he averaged 6 YPC. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him on my NFL team, but taking him over guys like Schaub is a stretch - Schaub is the 12th QB in history to throw for 4,000 yards, back-to-back. Tebow should be ahead of Bradford as both are risks, but based on the unique ability to score points on the ground, Tebow's ceiling is much higher. (6>4;10<25)
I was talking about Bradford surpassing 3,000 yds as a rookie, of which he joined Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan as the only rookies to ever do so. What impressed me even more is when you take into context, the supporting case with which they did it. In his rookie season, Manning had Marshall Faulk in the backfield and some guy named Marvin Harrison as his #1 WR. Ryan likewise, had Michael Turner in a career year and Roddy White. Now granted, Bradford had Steven Jackson moving the chains (no small matter) but Danny Amendola as his #1 target?!? I happen to own Bradford, Schaub AND Tebow on my dynasty team, so I have nothing against the names you're comparing him to. I love Tebow for the unique skills he brings to the table, but you weren't watching the same Sam Bradford I was if you thinks anybody's ceiling is MUCH higher than his (outside of the current elite tier guys). And I agree with you on Schaub as well.
 
I think its pretty hard to put any of the young guys in the top 2 tiers, or roughly the top 10. There is no reason to doubt the guys at in the top 10 will continue to perform well for years to come, and they've all done it multiple times. The young guys may very well join the list of elites, but what is the upside to drafting them? They'll be very fortunate to match guys like Brady and Brees for the next 5 years.

1. Rodgers

2. Brady

3. Vick

4. Rivers

5. Manning

6. Brees

7. Romo

8. Roethlisberger

9. Schaub

10. Ryan

11. Manning

12. Freeman

13. Bradford

14. Flacco

15. Cassel

16. Orton

17. Stafford

18. Cutler

19. Kolb

20. Sanchez

 
Thanks, and you are right, it appears that I left a whole tier out. But that was pretty much by intent. I'm just not very excited about any of the names you've mentioned as anything other than a very weak QB2. I'd rather take a flier on very raw but talented guys like Webb (reminds me of a very raw Mike Vick) or Skelton (reminds me of a raw Big Ben). The real "tier 4" guys I try very hard to avoid having on my dynasty team. I have such little enthusiasm for that group, I personally would want to have Webb and Skelton on my team ahead of those guys just for their potential.
I understand this philosophy, but think you're absolutely loopy if you think guys like Webb or Skelton have a higher ceiling than a guy like Kolb, who's already shown he can get it done with just average pass protection.
 
too low on Bradford, barring a sophomore slump ala Matt Ryan, this guy is going to be a stud going forward.
:mellow: If one were truly drafting a dynasty startup today, Romo is the only tier 2 name I'd take ahead of Bradford and I'm not even sure about that. Bradford joined some VERY eilte company with what he was able to do as a rookie.
Really? Because I am pretty sure both Flacco and Ryan did it not too long ago. Not only that, but he averaged 6 YPC. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him on my NFL team, but taking him over guys like Schaub is a stretch - Schaub is the 12th QB in history to throw for 4,000 yards, back-to-back. Tebow should be ahead of Bradford as both are risks, but based on the unique ability to score points on the ground, Tebow's ceiling is much higher. (6>4;10<25)
I was talking about Bradford surpassing 3,000 yds as a rookie, of which he joined Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan as the only rookies to ever do so. What impressed me even more is when you take into context, the supporting case with which they did it. In his rookie season, Manning had Marshall Faulk in the backfield and some guy named Marvin Harrison as his #1 WR. Ryan likewise, had Michael Turner in a career year and Roddy White. Now granted, Bradford had Steven Jackson moving the chains (no small matter) but Danny Amendola as his #1 target?!? I happen to own Bradford, Schaub AND Tebow on my dynasty team, so I have nothing against the names you're comparing him to. I love Tebow for the unique skills he brings to the table, but you weren't watching the same Sam Bradford I was if you thinks anybody's ceiling is MUCH higher than his (outside of the current elite tier guys). And I agree with you on Schaub as well.
Bradford looked better, but put up much fewer points than Tebow. I would take Bradford over Tebow in the NFL, without question. Just as I would take Brady over Vick in the NFL. But in fantasy football, this season especially, running QBs have an advantage in scoring points.Lets assume Tebow never improves on the numbers he put up in his 3 games, but doesn't fall off much either. That is about 27 points a game. Bradford could average 300 yards, 3 TDs and no Ints, and STILL not match what Tebow has done in his first 3 starts. I don't know how anyone can have access to that information and not conclude Tebow has the MUCH higher ceiling, when it comes to fantasy football. As for Bradford, the Rams threwthe ball a lot, getting him his 3,000 yards. But they played it safe and that resulted in a very human 6 YPC. Again, Bradford had a great rookie season, but not the historical one people are painting it to be.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think its pretty hard to put any of the young guys in the top 2 tiers, or roughly the top 10. There is no reason to doubt the guys at in the top 10 will continue to perform well for years to come, and they've all done it multiple times. The young guys may very well join the list of elites, but what is the upside to drafting them? They'll be very fortunate to match guys like Brady and Brees for the next 5 years.

1. Rodgers

2. Brady

3. Vick

4. Rivers

5. Manning

6. Brees

7. Romo

8. Roethlisberger

9. Schaub

10. Ryan

11. Manning

12. Freeman

13. Bradford

14. Flacco

15. Cassel

16. Orton

17. Stafford

18. Cutler

19. Kolb

20. Sanchez
I realize you're a Packer fan, but holy jeebus. :boxing: Below Orton and Stafford? C'MON MAN!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Bradford looked better, but put up much fewer points than Tebow. I would take Bradford over Tebow in the NFL, without question. Just as I would take Brady over Vick in the NFL. But in fantasy football, this season especially, running QBs have an advantage in scoring points.
This is an interesting :boxing:Most people will take Luck over Newton in rookie drafts next year. Are we undervaluing Newton? Or is there something that Tebow has or we think will acquire due to his strong work ethic, and something that Vick acquired last offseason, which gives them this advantage?Obviously it's something Vince Young hasn't acquired. He's not making these lists. Most see him as a terminal QB2. Webb is getting mentioned before him.
 
Bradford looked better, but put up much fewer points than Tebow. I would take Bradford over Tebow in the NFL, without question. Just as I would take Brady over Vick in the NFL. But in fantasy football, this season especially, running QBs have an advantage in scoring points.
This is an interesting :suds:Most people will take Luck over Newton in rookie drafts next year. Are we undervaluing Newton? Or is there something that Tebow has or we think will acquire due to his strong work ethic, and something that Vick acquired last offseason, which gives them this advantage?Obviously it's something Vince Young hasn't acquired. He's not making these lists. Most see him as a terminal QB2. Webb is getting mentioned before him.
Good question. I think this could merit its own thread. I will be taking Newton before Luck, if the chips fall that way. I think Newton is the closest thing to Tim Tebow that we have seen. I don't know that Newton has the heart and desire that Tebow has, but he has a better delivery and is faster and more agile. If we were to remove the intangibles from the equation, Newton is a much better pro prospect than Tebow was this time last year. As for FF purposes, I think their celings are close. I would take Tebow right now, as he has proven something, if only for 3 games.Edit:Also, Tebow and Newton are built to be reliable short/intermediate running options. They will get more goal line work than even Vick. Webb is more like Young, who was more like Vick. They will get their points when the pocket breaks down. They aren't built to take a regular pounding, they way Tebow and Newton seem to be.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think its pretty hard to put any of the young guys in the top 2 tiers, or roughly the top 10. There is no reason to doubt the guys at in the top 10 will continue to perform well for years to come, and they've all done it multiple times. The young guys may very well join the list of elites, but what is the upside to drafting them? They'll be very fortunate to match guys like Brady and Brees for the next 5 years.

1. Rodgers

2. Brady

3. Vick

4. Rivers

5. Manning

6. Brees

7. Romo

8. Roethlisberger

9. Schaub

10. Ryan

11. Manning

12. Freeman

13. Bradford

14. Flacco

15. Cassel

16. Orton

17. Stafford

18. Cutler

19. Kolb

20. Sanchez
I realize you're a Packer fan, but holy jeebus. :mellow: Below Orton and Stafford? C'MON MAN!
Since he's been a Bear, Cutler has 10 games where he didn't throw a TD pass. Clunkers. The Bears now understand what they have in Cutler. A rocket armed, pea brained Qb. If he throws it more than 30 times a game, he's most likely gonna lose the game for you. Starting week 10, Cutler attempted less than 27 passes 6 of 7 weeks. I just don't think they are gonna let him pass it enough to be a reliable top 10 guy. The Bears formula for winning is defense and special teams. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Through the first 12 weeks, Orton was top 3. It will obviously depend on where he goes, but I'd think SF or ARI will make a play for him. They both have nice receiving options already in place.

As for Stafford, injury is the obvious concern. I think his upside is as high as anybody not named Vick. So yeah, I'd take him ahead of Cutler.

 
too low on Bradford, barring a sophomore slump ala Matt Ryan, this guy is going to be a stud going forward.
:mellow: If one were truly drafting a dynasty startup today, Romo is the only tier 2 name I'd take ahead of Bradford and I'm not even sure about that. Bradford joined some VERY eilte company with what he was able to do as a rookie.
Really? Because I am pretty sure both Flacco and Ryan did it not too long ago. Not only that, but he averaged 6 YPC. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him on my NFL team, but taking him over guys like Schaub is a stretch - Schaub is the 12th QB in history to throw for 4,000 yards, back-to-back. Tebow should be ahead of Bradford as both are risks, but based on the unique ability to score points on the ground, Tebow's ceiling is much higher. (6>4;10<25)
I was talking about Bradford surpassing 3,000 yds as a rookie, of which he joined Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan as the only rookies to ever do so. What impressed me even more is when you take into context, the supporting case with which they did it. In his rookie season, Manning had Marshall Faulk in the backfield and some guy named Marvin Harrison as his #1 WR. Ryan likewise, had Michael Turner in a career year and Roddy White. Now granted, Bradford had Steven Jackson moving the chains (no small matter) but Danny Amendola as his #1 target?!? I happen to own Bradford, Schaub AND Tebow on my dynasty team, so I have nothing against the names you're comparing him to. I love Tebow for the unique skills he brings to the table, but you weren't watching the same Sam Bradford I was if you thinks anybody's ceiling is MUCH higher than his (outside of the current elite tier guys). And I agree with you on Schaub as well.
Bradford looked better, but put up much fewer points than Tebow. I would take Bradford over Tebow in the NFL, without question. Just as I would take Brady over Vick in the NFL. But in fantasy football, this season especially, running QBs have an advantage in scoring points.Lets assume Tebow never improves on the numbers he put up in his 3 games, but doesn't fall off much either. That is about 27 points a game. Bradford could average 300 yards, 3 TDs and no Ints, and STILL not match what Tebow has done in his first 3 starts. I don't know how anyone can have access to that information and not conclude Tebow has the MUCH higher ceiling, when it comes to fantasy football. As for Bradford, the Rams threwthe ball a lot, getting him his 3,000 yards. But they played it safe and that resulted in a very human 6 YPC. Again, Bradford had a great rookie season, but not the historical one people are painting it to be.
Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.
 
Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.
Tebow with only 8 rushing TDs and 480 yards (30 yards/0.5 TD) = 6 PPG225 yards + 1.6 TDs + 1.0 INTs = 16.6 PPGTotal is 22.6 PPG, which is more than Phillip Rivers.
 
Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.
Tebow with only 8 rushing TDs and 480 yards (30 yards/0.5 TD) = 6 PPG225 yards + 1.6 TDs + 1.0 INTs = 16.6 PPGTotal is 22.6 PPG, which is more than Phillip Rivers.
I think you are about 50ypg too high on Tebow's passing ydg. 2800 seems more likely than 3600, imo.I also think 1.6 is too high for TD/g, perhaps 1.2 is more realistic with his running sniping GL opportunities.These adjustments put Tebow at 18.2ppg, QB17 (Eli, Schaub, Flacco, Cutler ppg territory). Not bad company.
 
Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.
Tebow with only 8 rushing TDs and 480 yards (30 yards/0.5 TD) = 6 PPG225 yards + 1.6 TDs + 1.0 INTs = 16.6 PPGTotal is 22.6 PPG, which is more than Phillip Rivers.
I think you are about 50ypg too high on Tebow's passing ydg. 2800 seems more likely than 3600, imo.I also think 1.6 is too high for TD/g, perhaps 1.2 is more realistic with his running sniping GL opportunities.These adjustments put Tebow at 18.2ppg, QB17 (Eli, Schaub, Flacco, Cutler ppg territory). Not bad company.
I am using the numbers he has put up this season. 175/game?! Really?You can put him in with Manning and Culter if you want. But what is more likely to happen: His passing numbers being a low as you suggest, or his running numbers being higher than my conservative example?Regardless of HOW you want to devide them, the potential is far more than Manning and Cutler will offer you.I'll adjust: 200 yards 1.4 TD/1.0 Int = 14.4 + 6 (rushing) = 20.4.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.
Tebow with only 8 rushing TDs and 480 yards (30 yards/0.5 TD) = 6 PPG225 yards + 1.6 TDs + 1.0 INTs = 16.6 PPGTotal is 22.6 PPG, which is more than Phillip Rivers.
I think you are about 50ypg too high on Tebow's passing ydg. 2800 seems more likely than 3600, imo.I also think 1.6 is too high for TD/g, perhaps 1.2 is more realistic with his running sniping GL opportunities.These adjustments put Tebow at 18.2ppg, QB17 (Eli, Schaub, Flacco, Cutler ppg territory). Not bad company.
I am using the numbers he has put up this season.You can put him in with Manning and Culter if you want. But what is more likely to happen: His passing numbers being a low as you suggest, or his running numbers being higher than my conservative example?Regardless of HOW you want to devide them, the potential is far more than Manning and Cutler will offer you.
I'm a Tebow fan...but 3 is a small sample size...and while his upside is undeniable, so is his downside. What system will Denver run next year? Who will be his coach? Denver is not a good situation right now. How will opposing DCs scheme him next year with some tape to play with?and fwiw--while I think his passing will be closer to 2800, I do think you are right in that his running will be > 480 :lmao:as a Tebow owner, I'd trade him straight up for Rivers
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm a Tebow fan...but 3 is a small sample size...and while his upside is undeniable, so is his downside. What system will Denver run next year? Who will be his coach? Denver is not a good situation right now. How will opposing DCs scheme him next year with some tape to play with?and fwiw--while I think his passing will be closer to 2800, I do think you are right in that his running will be > 480 :shrug:as a Tebow owner, I'd trade him straight up for Rivers
Fair enough. In a dynasty league, I don't value Tebow as top 5. 3 games is a small sample size and there are a lot of questions. But once the dust settles, I do expect Denver to give Tebow a year and I expect him to do enough to at least keep the job for those 16 weeks. In a re-draft, I think the upside is through the roof and the downside can be alleviated by taking a Manning or Flacco as your number 2.In a dynasty league, there is much more risk, as it is not a sure bet that Tebow is the answer in Denver. I am confident he will get 16 games; I am not as confident that he shows enough during that time to be Denver's long term solution. I am confident that he can put up great fantasy numbers, even if his team is losing and his play as it relates to wins, leaves Denver to desire more.
 
I also think Tebow should be higher than 14 however. I know it's the smallest of sample sizes, but by my league's scoring, if you prorate his numbers for 16 games he's the #1 fantasy QB by more than 100 pts. over Vick. And only 56 FP shy of Brady's record setting 2007. So we can shave Tebow's stats (a freaking LOT) and he still projects top 10 next year.

 
There is an awful lot of space between Ryan and Flacco for two QBs with nearly identical statistics and career paths.
He only has them one tier apart, and I definitely see that tier differentiation despite the similar stats, pedigree, and team history. I'd much rather have Ryan. Looking forward not back how do you think the situations will evolve? I expect Rice to be good for another 2 or 3 years.I expect Turner to be a below average back next year.
Maybe only one tier but they are also ranked by number. There's a big difference between 9 and 17.I'm not sure Turner will be below average but agree he will deteriorate before Rice. I don't see how that's a positive for Ryan and a negative for Flacco. Losing a RB doesn't necessarily lead to a better offense, more passing attempts, and a better fantasy season. See Aaron Rodgers.
I expect the Baltimore defense to be good. I expect the Atlanta defense to be average.
Why? They were similar this year in terms of 'points against'. Baltimore's D is older by about an average of 2.5 years per player. Why would Atlanta deteriorate faster than Baltimore's? If anything, I'd expect Baltimore's to deteriorate faster than Atlanta's.
I expect Boldin, Mason, and Heap to slow down or retire. I expect White to be elite for 3 to 5 years.I expect them to draft a WR early soon.
I agree with you on Mason and Heap. But Heap is further from retirement than Gonzalez, who will likely be gone after this year. At least Baltimore has already drafted 2 TEs to replace Heap. Boldin is less than a year older than White. I don't see why Boldin slows down and White remains level for 3-5 more years.
I expect Flacco's production to be about the same as it was this year.I expect Ryan will throw a lot more similar to how the SD situation evolved around LT's last few years.
I don't see the similarity to SD at all. The decline of LT didn't make a great QB. Atlanta threw the ball more this year than SD ever did with Rivers and Brees. If anything, SDs offense more closely resembles Baltimore's, likely because Cameron came from SD.
 
Dynasty rankings are really subjective because it depends on how long into the future you're talking about. If you're telling me I get my pick of QBs to start my dynasty team for the next umpteen years, my choice is Sam Bradford (& it's a pretty easy choice, IMO).

If you're telling me it's just for the next 2 or 3 years, my choice might be something else. Anyway, I do like that you have Tebow at 14. Whether you love him or hate him, he's shown he can be a helluva FF QB. He's also going to improve by leaps & bounds over the next few seasons, which some people seem to forget.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dynasty rankings are really subjective because it depends on how long into the future you're talking about. If you're telling me I get my pick of QBs to start my dynasty team for the next umpteen years, my choice is Sam Bradford (& it's a pretty easy choice, IMO).

If you're telling me it's just for the next 2 or 3 years, my choice might be something else. Anyway, I do like that you have Tebow at 14. Whether you love him or hate him, he's shown he can be a helluva FF QB. He's also going to improve by leaps & bounds over the next few seasons, which some people seem to forget.
He might become more accurate...and a better passer, and improve by "leaps and bounds"as an NFL QB....but that doesn't always translate to improved FF stats. Maybe the new OC keeps him in the pocket more? Way too many variables right now.Fwiw--you Tebow fans are making me think I should sell Peyton and ride Tebow... :thumbdown: I'm more playing devils advocate to talk myself out of doing that.

 
Nice Rankings. Thanks for taking the time. My top 20 would be as follows

1) Aaron Rodgers

2) Phillip Rivers

3) Tom Brady

3) Peyton Manning

4) Drew Brees

5) Mike Vick

6) Tony Romo

7) Matt Ryan

8) Ben Roethlisberger

9) Josh Freeman

10) Sam Bradford

11) Matt Schaub

12) Jay Cutler

13) Matt Stafford

14) Joe Flacco

15) Matt Cassell

16) Eli Manning

17) Kyle Orton

18) Tim Tebow

19) Joe Webb

20) John Skelton

 
There is an awful lot of space between Ryan and Flacco for two QBs with nearly identical statistics and career paths.
He only has them one tier apart, and I definitely see that tier differentiation despite the similar stats, pedigree, and team history. I'd much rather have Ryan. Looking forward not back how do you think the situations will evolve? Baltimore: I expect Rice to be good for another 2 or 3 years. I expect the Baltimore defense to be good. I expect Boldin, Mason, and Heap to slow down or retire. I expect Flacco's production to be about the same as it was this year.Atlanta: I expect Turner to be a below average back next year. I expect the Atlanta defense to be average. I expect White to be elite for 3 to 5 years. I expect them to draft a WR early soon. I expect Ryan will throw a lot more similar to how the SD situation evolved around LT's last few years.
I agree that Flacco is probably a tier low (if not more) - especially relative to Ryan.Flacco's trend is quite good actually, both as a real NFL QB and as a FF QB. His stats have gotten better every year. His 2010 YPA was a VERY solid 7.41 compared to Ryan's 6.49. His QB rating was 93.6, for 7th in the league. His receiving core is above average with Boldin, and Heap hasn't really been a big part of the receiving offense for years anyway.As a young QB, I really can't see projecting a big drop from 11th (his current position in my league) to 17th.
 
People are still way undervaluing Shaub. He will easily be top 8.

I think people are over valuing Tebow because the real-life aspect is being overlooked. Yes, Tebow put up great FF points during 3 games but we have to remember that these were games that were 1)meaningless in terms of real life Broncos making playoffs and 2) these games set up perfectly to dictate lots of throwing, making a comeback, etc 9and one of those games was against the worst pass defense I have seen in a decade).

The FF points may be there for him but its a short lived proposition. the Broncos in real life can't continue to play those types of games and compete and the owner won't stand for it either. Exposing the QB to so much running in traffic generally is a recipe for a naggin injury or something that keeps a player out for a few weeks at a time also.

I know its easy to get caught up in the gaudy stat lines but there's no way I would be picking him and expect him to get that kind of production from me, week in , week out, all year long. Too many things suggest it won't hold up.

 
People are still way undervaluing Shaub. He will easily be top 8.I think people are over valuing Tebow because the real-life aspect is being overlooked. Yes, Tebow put up great FF points during 3 games but we have to remember that these were games that were 1)meaningless in terms of real life Broncos making playoffs and 2) these games set up perfectly to dictate lots of throwing, making a comeback, etc 9and one of those games was against the worst pass defense I have seen in a decade).The FF points may be there for him but its a short lived proposition. the Broncos in real life can't continue to play those types of games and compete and the owner won't stand for it either. Exposing the QB to so much running in traffic generally is a recipe for a naggin injury or something that keeps a player out for a few weeks at a time also.I know its easy to get caught up in the gaudy stat lines but there's no way I would be picking him and expect him to get that kind of production from me, week in , week out, all year long. Too many things suggest it won't hold up.
Take the running aspect out of it.What more did you expect from a rookie QB in his situation. Lets talk real life and talk about realistic expectations. He was a 1st round pick and - for the most part - played like one. It is not as though the Broncos lost games because of his play and it is not as though the Broncos have any realistic reason to be dissapointed in what they saw from Tim. I don't know about his mechanics, but the strides he has made in less than a year gives reason to think on the bright side.
 
Maybe only one tier but they are also ranked by number. There's a big difference between 9 and 17.
OP stated that we should read more into his tiers than the # rankings so I gave him a pass there. I would put Flacco ahead of everyone in Tier 3 except Bradford, and then also one name from tier 2 (Cutler). So I'd have about a 3 or 4 difference in # ranking and 1 tier Flacco vs. Ryan.
I expect the Baltimore defense to be good. I expect the Atlanta defense to be average.
Why? They were similar this year in terms of 'points against'. Baltimore's D is older by about an average of 2.5 years per player. Why would Atlanta deteriorate faster than Baltimore's? If anything, I'd expect Baltimore's to deteriorate faster than Atlanta's.
Atlanta's has to improve before they can deteriorate. Right now they are just consistently meh. The philosophy in Baltimore is to build around the defense. That might fall apart when Lewis and Reed retire, but it survived many generations of Steelers greats in Pittsburgh, so I'm counting it as just "in the water." I realize Baltimore had a down year but Atlanta has shown nothing and has little to build around (Lofton? Abraham?)
I expect Flacco's production to be about the same as it was this year.I expect Ryan will throw a lot more similar to how the SD situation evolved around LT's last few years.
I don't see the similarity to SD at all. The decline of LT didn't make a great QB. Atlanta threw the ball more this year than SD ever did with Rivers and Brees.
Yeah, Ryan is already throwing a lot more. Partly because Turner is already slowing down. I guess I don't expect Ryan to have more attempts, but to take more chances downfield. The team will rely more on the pass to generate points similar to how SD shifted from relying on LT to relying on Rivers. It won't take much to push Ryan over 4000 yards and 30 TDs as the offense continues to dominate games after Turner falls off the cliff, and those are elite numbers.
 
I wouldn't pass on Vick for anyone right now. And Vick has plenty of years left, and almost no wear/tear on his body. He's the #1 QB IMO.

 
I wouldn't pass on Vick for anyone right now. And Vick has plenty of years left, and almost no wear/tear on his body. He's the #1 QB IMO.
Vick was unreal in fantasy this year, but "almost no wear/tear on his body" left him on the sidlines for 5 games this year injured.
 
Looks like Eli will be a value pick next season based on where people have him ranked. He's thrown 4000+ yds two seasons in a row. He should project for 3800-4k yds and 25-30 tds next season. The high number of INTs I believe should come back down to about 15-17 next season.

 
I think we've seen enough of McCoy that he deserves a mention.
Absolutely. There's no doubt in my mind Colt McCoy will be on these lists next offseason. That kid is going to be a player. He might be my pick for surprise QB of 2011 if they get him a stud WR.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
While I like Tebow as much as anybody & believe he's eventually going to be a stud FF QB, it won't happen overnight. I don't expect him to go out & keep up the PPG pace in 2011 he showed in the last 3 games this season.

That said, I believe he'll be a legit #1 by 2012 & the sky is the limit after that. He's got the arm, which was the big question. The other thing people worried about was his throwing motion, but that's so overblown it's not funny. Not that he can't shorten it a tad as he continues to work on it, but it most definitely WON'T keep him from having success.

We know he's got the intelligence, athleticism, & work ethic to be a stud. I honestly don't understand why more people aren't high on him.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think Flacco belongs in the same tier as Freeman, Ryan, and probably Cutler too. Whether that means Flacco moves up, or those guys move down, I don't know. Maybe create a tier 2.5. They're all very close in potential, and also all very young. We can argue about how they'd rank within a tier, but it seems to me they belong in the same boat for dynasty purposes.

To me, it looks like the tiers fit this model ....

Tier 1: Elite production. No concerns about health or ability.

Tier 2: Strong & consistent production, with potential to become elite Tier 1 players. No major concerns about health or ability.

Tier 3: Strong & consistent production, with potential to post elite games. Some concerns about health, ability, experience, or playing time.

Tier 3A (missing names, but includes Cassel, Sanchez, etc): Medium-strong production. Various concerns.

Tier 4: Potential future development.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Looking through my own rankings and all the talk about various QBs in the teens on this thread, it's pretty clear that the QB position is loaded in 2011. Even ignoring the position through 6-7 rounds in a draft next year, you could probably get 2-3 QBs of the following group and have nice numbers by playing match-ups/getting one that creates some value from their preseason ranking - Ryan, Eli, Schaub, Freeman, Stafford, Tebow, Bradford. Definitely looks like an ideal year to have a QBBC and wait to get 2-3 solid guys that have top 10/top 5 potential. Thoughts?

 
renesauz said:
Thanks, and you are right, it appears that I left a whole tier out. But that was pretty much by intent. I'm just not very excited about any of the names you've mentioned as anything other than a very weak QB2. I'd rather take a flier on very raw but talented guys like Webb (reminds me of a very raw Mike Vick) or Skelton (reminds me of a raw Big Ben). The real "tier 4" guys I try very hard to avoid having on my dynasty team. I have such little enthusiasm for that group, I personally would want to have Webb and Skelton on my team ahead of those guys just for their potential.
I understand this philosophy, but think you're absolutely loopy if you think guys like Webb or Skelton have a higher ceiling than a guy like Kolb, who's already shown he can get it done with just average pass protection.
Wow, I posted this on this board by accident because there are so many in the pool who are much more knowledgeable than myself that I've quietly learned from - I've mainly been a lurker here. So I'm kind of overwhelmed by the response.I will add 6 more guys to tier 4:19. Joe Webb20. John Skelton21. David Garrard22. Vince Young23. Matt Cassel24. Mark Sanchez25. Kevin Kolb26. Ryan FitzpatrickYou will notice that I placed Webb and Skelton AHEAD of these guys. IMO in a tier 4 you should roster QBs based on upside. A Cassel or a Fitzpatrick can keep you in the hunt, but guys like Webb and Skelton (somewhat like the trajectory I see for Josh Freeman and like Michael Vick did this year) just might someday put your team on his back and win you a Championship. And I never said I wasn't loopy, but I DO see higher upside a year or two out for Webb and Skelton. Will they fulfill their (vast) potential? No one knows.Regarding Tier 1, I feel I should have differentiated Rodgers and Vick as 1a, and the other four guys as 1b. I also think that you could put Big Ben and Romo in a tier 2a or even a tier 1c. Ben has performed at a near elite level for the last few years, and Romo is a huge 'buy-low' right now IMO. He's also been a borderline tier 1 guy for the last couple of years, and now Bryant has been added to the mix. Like Bloom, I also believe that people who got burned by Cowboy fantasy players this season past will get their rewards next year - deferred gratification!There was quite a discussion about Tebow, and I'm a little surprized I didn't get blasted for ranking him so high. I will say this about Orton and Tebow: I don't expect Orton to remain in Denver, and I see both of them as quality fantasy options. So I've ranked them as if they both will be starters, but you may have to wait a year for that. I think that with Tebow's emergence, this is also an ideal time to 'buy low' on Orton. He really showed me command of the passing game in spite of terrible protection until he got slowed by injuries. Lastly, I'm the last person to weigh in on the QBBC idea, but my personal philosophy for dynasty is to try and have as many tier 1 guys (I'll include Ben or Romo here) as you can have at every position and then have a few upside guys. I'm not much for collecting the Cotcherys and Burlesons of the league on my dynasty roster - but I seem to get my share of them by accident anyway!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop said:
FantasyTrader said:
Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.
Tebow with only 8 rushing TDs and 480 yards (30 yards/0.5 TD) = 6 PPG225 yards + 1.6 TDs + 1.0 INTs = 16.6 PPGTotal is 22.6 PPG, which is more than Phillip Rivers.
It's the 225/1.6 per game that IMO is much more in question than the 30/0.5.
 
5Rings said:
Concept Coop said:
5Rings said:
Concept Coop said:
FantasyTrader said:
Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.
Tebow with only 8 rushing TDs and 480 yards (30 yards/0.5 TD) = 6 PPG225 yards + 1.6 TDs + 1.0 INTs = 16.6 PPGTotal is 22.6 PPG, which is more than Phillip Rivers.
I think you are about 50ypg too high on Tebow's passing ydg. 2800 seems more likely than 3600, imo.I also think 1.6 is too high for TD/g, perhaps 1.2 is more realistic with his running sniping GL opportunities.These adjustments put Tebow at 18.2ppg, QB17 (Eli, Schaub, Flacco, Cutler ppg territory). Not bad company.
I am using the numbers he has put up this season.You can put him in with Manning and Culter if you want. But what is more likely to happen: His passing numbers being a low as you suggest, or his running numbers being higher than my conservative example?Regardless of HOW you want to devide them, the potential is far more than Manning and Cutler will offer you.
I'm a Tebow fan...but 3 is a small sample size...and while his upside is undeniable, so is his downside. What system will Denver run next year? Who will be his coach? Denver is not a good situation right now. How will opposing DCs scheme him next year with some tape to play with?and fwiw--while I think his passing will be closer to 2800, I do think you are right in that his running will be > 480 :scared:as a Tebow owner, I'd trade him straight up for Rivers
:unsure:
 
Concept Coop said:
FantasyTrader said:
Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.
Tebow with only 8 rushing TDs and 480 yards (30 yards/0.5 TD) = 6 PPG225 yards + 1.6 TDs + 1.0 INTs = 16.6 PPGTotal is 22.6 PPG, which is more than Phillip Rivers.
It's the 225/1.6 per game that IMO is much more in question than the 30/0.5.
Fair enough. But it is no more liberal than 30/.05 is conservative. Not only that, but adjusting his passing totals does little in comparision to adjusting his rushing totals. You could change the 225 to 200 and only have the impact that changing the rushing total from 30 to 40. He is putting up 217 right now. I don't know why it is so crazy to think that next year, after an offseason as the starter, he could muster 225. And Denver's D is horrible. They will have to throw to stay in games.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop said:
FantasyTrader said:
Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.
Tebow with only 8 rushing TDs and 480 yards (30 yards/0.5 TD) = 6 PPG225 yards + 1.6 TDs + 1.0 INTs = 16.6 PPGTotal is 22.6 PPG, which is more than Phillip Rivers.
It's the 225/1.6 per game that IMO is much more in question than the 30/0.5.
Fair enough. But it is no more liberal than 30/.05 is conservative. Not only that, but adjusting his passing totals does little in comparision to adjusting his rushing totals. You could change the 225 to 200 and only have the impact that changing teh 30 to 40 would have.
I agree. Tebow's rushing totals in three starts were 78, 27 and 97 yards. If Vegas issued a line today on Tebow rushing for an average of 30 a start next year, you'd have people taking out second mortgages. And they'd be +EV for doing so.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top