My Very Early 2011 Dynasty rankings (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

Boy I hope you're right, but projecting Tebow for 16 rushing TD's (you realize that's his total if he continued the pace he was on through three games) is wishful thinking. Now personally, I hate the argument people always use that goes something like, "Let's see him do it after defenses have an offseason of film study to defend it" but in Tebow's case, I believe it holds some water. I look for defenses to drop a safety down and "shadow" Tebow next year, as with many running QB's with suspect accuracy. The very reason you believe Tebow's ceiling is through the roof could be used to argue why his floor is through the basement. Again, I'm both a Tebow and Bradford dynasty owner, so I'm in your corner. But I think that looking at Tebow's rushing in three starts and projecting it for a full season is foolish. Now IF Tebow can continue improving as a pocket passer and make you pay for single coverage in the passing game? Then it's on.

Tebow with only 8 rushing TDs and 480 yards (30 yards/0.5 TD) = 6 PPG225 yards + 1.6 TDs + 1.0 INTs = 16.6 PPGTotal is 22.6 PPG, which is more than Phillip Rivers.

It's the 225/1.6 per game that IMO is much more in question than the 30/0.5.

Fair enough. But it is no more liberal than 30/.05 is conservative. Not only that, but adjusting his passing totals does little in comparision to adjusting his rushing totals. You could change the 225 to 200 and only have the impact that changing the rushing total from 30 to 40. He is putting up 217 right now. I don't know why it is so crazy to think that next year, after an offseason as the starter, he could muster 225. And Denver's D is horrible. They will have to throw to stay in games.

In my experience, prorating numbers rarely proves accurate. There are many obvious reasons why 3 games are not enough of a sample size to draw strong conclusions. Drawing a conclusion that he may be better than expected and may have better upside potential than expected is one thing... projecting 20+ ppg is another. Nothing wrong with going out on a limb, I just happen to think you are severely overvaluing the 3 game sample. Also, you seem to have a lot of confidence that he will be the starter, but I'm not so certain that is a given. We don't even know who the coach will be, or what type of offense that coach will want to run.

 

[cr8f]

Freeman is way too low, perhaps a top 5 QB this year.

 

[cr8f]

At least you didn't have Freeman and Bradford in your top five.

One of my leagues the last 6 weeksVickBradySchaubCasselRoethlisbergerFreemanPeytonKitna(or Romo)GarrardRodgersBreesCutler

 

[Concept Coop]

In my experience, prorating numbers rarely proves accurate. There are many obvious reasons why 3 games are not enough of a sample size to draw strong conclusions. Drawing a conclusion that he may be better than expected and may have better upside potential than expected is one thing... projecting 20+ ppg is another. Nothing wrong with going out on a limb, I just happen to think you are severely overvaluing the 3 game sample. Also, you seem to have a lot of confidence that he will be the starter, but I'm not so certain that is a given. We don't even know who the coach will be, or what type of offense that coach will want to run.

Who is prorating anything? Why do people keep accusing me of doing that. If I were to prorate his numbers, he would be scoring more than Vick. I am not suggesting he will do that.You mean to tell me that you think it is possible for Denver (same GM and owner) to have drafted Tebow with a 1st round pick, trading up to do so, play him for 3 weeks - he played well - ship the other QB on the roster, and not start Tebow? Make that make sense to me. Please tell me how projecting him to rush for 30 yards a game and 0.5 TDs is severley overrating someone. Or is it the 225 yards and 1.6 TDs? Even if you changed it to 200 and 1.4, he still has the potential to score 20 points a game scoring more on the ground. Again, those saying is is crazy to project 20+ points for Tebow, you tell me what he will score. It is easy to say that until you look at the numbers and start to realize what running QBs can do in fantasy football.

 

[I was in the pool]

I knew Tebow had some nice fantasy numbers the last 3 games of the year, but didn't know the specifics until I looked them up.

Through footballguys data dominator, it says that the top FF pt. producers at QB the last 3 weeks of 2010 were....

Tebow - 83

Freeman - 75

Vick - 70

Roethlisberger - 70

I think 20 Pt/game avg. for Tebow is a decent projection as a full-time starter in 2011. D.Thomas will be back (hopefully), Moreno a little healthier, Tebow a full off-season. At 20 PPG, he would have been top 6 in 2010.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

too low on Bradford, barring a sophomore slump ala Matt Ryan, this guy is going to be a stud going forward.

If one were truly drafting a dynasty startup today, Romo is the only tier 2 name I'd take ahead of Bradford and I'm not even sure about that. Bradford joined some VERY eilte company with what he was able to do as a rookie.

Really? Because I am pretty sure both Flacco and Ryan did it not too long ago. Not only that, but he averaged 6 YPC. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him on my NFL team, but taking him over guys like Schaub is a stretch - Schaub is the 12th QB in history to throw for 4,000 yards, back-to-back. Tebow should be ahead of Bradford as both are risks, but based on the unique ability to score points on the ground, Tebow's ceiling is much higher. (6>4;10<25)

I was talking about Bradford surpassing 3,000 yds as a rookie, of which he joined Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan as the only rookies to ever do so. What impressed me even more is when you take into context, the supporting case with which they did it. In his rookie season, Manning had Marshall Faulk in the backfield and some guy named Marvin Harrison as his #1 WR. Ryan likewise, had Michael Turner in a career year and Roddy White. Now granted, Bradford had Steven Jackson moving the chains (no small matter) but Danny Amendola as his #1 target?!? I happen to own Bradford, Schaub AND Tebow on my dynasty team, so I have nothing against the names you're comparing him to. I love Tebow for the unique skills he brings to the table, but you weren't watching the same Sam Bradford I was if you thinks anybody's ceiling is MUCH higher than his (outside of the current elite tier guys). And I agree with you on Schaub as well.

Bradford looked better, but put up much fewer points than Tebow. I would take Bradford over Tebow in the NFL, without question. Just as I would take Brady over Vick in the NFL. But in fantasy football, this season especially, running QBs have an advantage in scoring points.Lets assume Tebow never improves on the numbers he put up in his 3 games, but doesn't fall off much either. That is about 27 points a game. Bradford could average 300 yards, 3 TDs and no Ints, and STILL not match what Tebow has done in his first 3 starts. I don't know how anyone can have access to that information and not conclude Tebow has the MUCH higher ceiling, when it comes to fantasy football. As for Bradford, the Rams threwthe ball a lot, getting him his 3,000 yards. But they played it safe and that resulted in a very human 6 YPC. Again, Bradford had a great rookie season, but not the historical one people are painting it to be.

not to mention the rams D is c+/b-, wheras the broncos is a solid D.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I think its pretty hard to put any of the young guys in the top 2 tiers, or roughly the top 10. There is no reason to doubt the guys at in the top 10 will continue to perform well for years to come, and they've all done it multiple times. The young guys may very well join the list of elites, but what is the upside to drafting them? They'll be very fortunate to match guys like Brady and Brees for the next 5 years.

1. Rodgers

2. Brady

3. Vick

4. Rivers

5. Manning

6. Brees

7. Romo

8. Roethlisberger

9. Schaub

10. Ryan

11. Manning

12. Freeman

13. Bradford

14. Flacco

15. Cassel

16. Orton

17. Stafford

18. Cutler

19. Kolb

20. Sanchez

I realize you're a Packer fan, but holy jeebus. Below Orton and Stafford? C'MON MAN!

Since he's been a Bear, Cutler has 10 games where he didn't throw a TD pass. Clunkers. The Bears now understand what they have in Cutler. A rocket armed, pea brained Qb. If he throws it more than 30 times a game, he's most likely gonna lose the game for you. Starting week 10, Cutler attempted less than 27 passes 6 of 7 weeks. I just don't think they are gonna let him pass it enough to be a reliable top 10 guy. The Bears formula for winning is defense and special teams. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Through the first 12 weeks, Orton was top 3. It will obviously depend on where he goes, but I'd think SF or ARI will make a play for him. They both have nice receiving options already in place.

As for Stafford, injury is the obvious concern. I think his upside is as high as anybody not named Vick. So yeah, I'd take him ahead of Cutler.

 

[FantasyTrader]

not to mention the rams D is c+/b-, wheras the broncos is a solid D.

What on earth are you talking about?! I think there are some defensive categories the Broncos actually managed to rank 33rd in this year.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

I also think Tebow should be higher than 14 however. I know it's the smallest of sample sizes, but by my league's scoring, if you prorate his numbers for 16 games he's the #1 fantasy QB by more than 100 pts. over Vick. And only 56 FP shy of Brady's record setting 2007. So we can shave Tebow's stats (a freaking LOT) and he still projects top 10 next year.

Tghis was because the broncos d was horrid especially at the end of the year. how much they improve (ie how often they'll be playing from far behind) will probably affect these #'s more than most factors being discussed in this thread.and a 3 game sample size is exacerbated when it has 40 yard td runs on 3 and 23 included.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I wouldn't pass on Vick for anyone right now. And Vick has plenty of years left, and almost no wear/tear on his body. He's the #1 QB IMO.

Vick was unreal in fantasy this year, but "almost no wear/tear on his body" left him on the sidlines for 5 games this year injured.

Not to mention his lack of ability to remain healthy for 16 games. He's done it once. I hate hand-cuffing QBs, but you HAVE to hand-cuff Vick. It's pretty much a lock that he will miss at least a game or two. Pray they aren't in the FF playoffs...