3. If LeBron leaves, they are best served at blowing the whole thing up and starting over. I believe they'll still be over the cap or darn close to it. They need to dump salary. Getting a couple decent players and draft picks for LeBron isn't going to help the franchise. They would still be a lottery team.
I think you're right and they won't sign-and-trade him. However, it would be a mistake. Of course they shouldn't accept a bad contract back like Deng, Eddy Curry, Beasley, etc., but a large trade exception and a couple of picks can help them rebuild.
The owner could also get cash considerations. Although cash won't help the team, Gilbert could be leaving millions of dollars on the table.
If LeBron leaves, the value of the Cleveland franchise will plummet $150 million from what I've heard estimated. Not sure if there's a maximum amount of $$$ that one team can fork over in a trade, but let's say some team does give $10 million in the LeBron deal. That's nothing in the grand scheme of things if they lose LBJ. Cleveland basically has 2 things going for them as they try and resign LeBron:
1. They're LeBron's "home."
2. They can pay LBJ more than any other team.
IMO, it would be horrible strategy for the team to cave in on #2. This is uber high stakes poker and Cleveland needs to maximize their leverage by refusing to trade him. This puts all the pressure on LeBron.
Essentially, Cleveland is already pot committed for $150 million. IMO, there's no realistic trade that justifies the Cavs not seeing this all the way through. It's either LBJ or bust.