I don't think Mayo can be a true PG but he averages 3 ast per game playing off the ball. He can be a better version of Derek Fisher, IMO, who plays the PG but his function is more SG. Mayo plays decent defense but he's outmatched by the bigger SGs... then again Morrow is terrible so it's probably a net equal Conely/Mayo vs Mayo/Morrow on the defensive end and likely worse.
No need to look at Greek League stats just a simple comparison of NBA stats.
Gay vs Childress
Aside from PPG, look at the stats advanced or basic and let me know where the drop off is? Also note that Childress did it in 4 mpg less than Gay. Then you add to that that Childress is a + defender vs Gay and I don't think it's an outlandish statement.
The extra points Gay produced took EXTRA SHOTS and with him gone those shots would spread between Mayo, Z-Bo, Marc Gasol, Childress, and Morrow. All these guys shoot more efficiently then Gay and it would only take a TOTAL OF 4 FGM/game spread between those 5 players to make up the 11 ppg vs 18 ppg between Childress and Gay. That's an extra shot or 2 for each player which shouldn't decrease their efficiency much.
Again those guys shoot it more efficiently than Gay so in the end it will help improve their team (efficiency and more offensive options). Points in an NBA game is the easiest thing to do/find (see Golden State Warriors) but finding guys who score efficiently AND play defense is the holy grail.
So now that you see the stats are similar aside from PPG and how easy the Grizzlies can make up that 7 ppg difference... is that such an outlandish statement?
I guess my short answer to this is that I don't believe that Childress will be as efficient as he was as mainly a bench player in ATL if he's required to be on the floor more and take more shots. We probably won't get to find out this year because he'll be backing up Grant Hill, right? Doesn't that alone say something about him?Also, I do believe Gay can still improve. I don't believe it's guaranteed by any means, but there's a chance a guy that's not yet 24 can get better. I'll grant you there's no trend in his stats over the last 3 years indicating such.
- Sure Childress efficiency WILL drop if he's asked to score more points BUT he's already WAY ahead of Rudy gay as far as efficiency. Rudy Gay - 15 FGA:53 TS%
Childress - 8 FGA: 59.9 TS%
So Childress SHOULD experience a drop in efficiency with increased FGA (only a fool would think otherwise), but just b/c he takes twice as many shots doesn't mean he'll decrease his efficiency in half. No way to find the exact curve but FGA:% should be on some type of curve. In the end, I don't think the drop is big enough that IF Childress takes as many shots as Gay his efficiency would DROP BELOW that of Gay's.
- Now let's look at this Player vs Player and Team stand point.
Player vs Player: actual production.
- Gay: + volume scoring
- Childress: + defense, + efficiency, +/= everything else in 4mpg less over their careers.
So if you look at what they offer on the court it goes to offense vs defense regarding your preference (mine is obviously efficiency and defense).
- I don't know if you overlooked it or felt the increased FGA:decrease % argument was enough but I don't think you addressed the team impact of replacing Childress for Gay.
I think it's safe to say Childress >= Gay in every aspect BUT volume scoring. Check the stats. Also Childress actually plays defense. So the only thing Grizz need to do is making up the 7 point difference in their career scoring average.
Again, that can be done if the TEAM AS WHOLE can find a way to add +4 FGM per game. You could assume Mayo, Marc Gasol, Childress, and Z-Bo can each take an EXTRA 2 shots per game (make 1: miss 1). It is also good to note these 4 all had TS% higher than Gay's. Do you think an extra two shots per game will reduce their efficiency by that much? I don't think so.
Voila, the team has improved their defense AND efficiency simply by swapping out Childress for Gay. They would also get Morrow off the bench and more cap room! Also down the line it would be easier to trade 2 small contracts (Childress/Morrow) vs 1 huge one (Gay).