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*NBA THREAD* Abe will be missed (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Cliff Clavin
- Start date
timschochet
Footballguy
I do, but a bet is a bet. At this point allowing me to buyout would simply be a gift on your part, so no thanks. I'll stick with it.
Premier
Footballguy
Uh yea...you lost.
Moe.
Footballguy
You can't still be entertaining the thought that you might not lose this bet.
Tim, the season is still young, but there's panic in South Beach. It's almost time to do a post-mortem on this experiment. It has failed because (1) bulk and strength around the basket are a requirement in the NBA today - there are definitely more athletic skilled big guys today than during Jordan's time (2) ego - basketball is a team game - that's why Puerto Rico, Argentina and Brazil compete with and beat USA all star teams. The Heat may go 8-8 with the next 2 games @ Orlando and @ Dallas. But, the Heat will be a team that nobody will want to face in the playoffs.
Kev4029
Footballguy
I don't understand this argument that they need more size inside and their defense is failing them. They have one of the best defenses in the NBA, big men for the most part have had average to below average success against them and they are protecting the rim at at least an average level. Big men are not the issue, I think its a combination of a lack of shooters and general lack of team cohesion on offense. They need Miller in a bad way.
timschochet
Footballguy
$100.
timschochet
Footballguy
I figured it would be the other way around, that they would win a ton of games in the regular season (which is why I made the bet) and would struggle against the better defenses in the post season. The NBA is so top heavy! It may yet turn out that way, but 65+ is really unrealistic. Oh well.
Al_Czervik
Footballguy
Go Clippers! 
If LeBron and Wade find a way to mesh on offense, they will be fine. Neither of those guys seems to know what to do without the ball right now.
boubucarow
Footballguy
According to Hoopsstats.com...Miami is 26th in the league in points in the paint per game.Miami is 23rd in the league in opponents points in the paint.They get outscored by about 6 points a game in the paint.Now out of the paint points, the Heat are 4th offensively and 1st defensively for a +16 difference a game.Add to that an almost even rebound differential and accounting for Miami having an advantage in every other differential I can find, it is pretty obvious where their weakness is.Kev4029 said:
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
If you can't score 90+ on the Pacers, you have some serious issues going on.
Funny how the coaching always got so much criticism in Cleveland (deservedly), and LeBron is right back on a team with a coach that has no clue. I think everyone believes that this team is run by Wade and James and the truth is that it probably is for the now part. And it's clear that neither of them can figure out how to make things work. Maybe they get it figured out, but it will have to be Wade figuring it out, not LeBron. LeBron is a great player, great shooter and great passer, but I never felt like he knew how to lead a team. He needs a great coach to stategize and run things.
Funny how the coaching always got so much criticism in Cleveland (deservedly), and LeBron is right back on a team with a coach that has no clue. I think everyone believes that this team is run by Wade and James and the truth is that it probably is for the now part. And it's clear that neither of them can figure out how to make things work. Maybe they get it figured out, but it will have to be Wade figuring it out, not LeBron. LeBron is a great player, great shooter and great passer, but I never felt like he knew how to lead a team. He needs a great coach to stategize and run things.
Kev4029
Footballguy
You are looking at it in the wrong light. Teams are forcing the issue a bit in the paint against the Heat, and because of that are scoring frequently in the paint. This doesn't mean they are doing it efficiently, Heat opponents are hitting .488 in the paint good for 14th in the league and opposing centers are shooting .447 overall against them. On offense they aren't forcing the issue and they are hitting .526 in the paint, good for 4th in the league. Overall they definitely not a great team in the paint, but they weren't built to be such. The Heat were built to drive and dish with Wade and Lebron driving and dishing and Miller and Chalmers hitting 3s and Haslem and Bosh hitting 15 footers. They need more shooters surrounding Lebron and Wade, the only two guys currently playing that can hit a three are Jones and House and outside of Kapono and Novak (not sure if hes still around) they are about the most one dimensional players in the NBA. I still think they should sign Dampier because he is solid in the post and he will be helpful, but the Heat should be focusing on their real issue of spacing the floor which will be much easier to address than adding post scoring (which would be impossible for them this year).By the way, thanks for hoopstats, cool site, I've never been there before. And does anybody know where you can find NBA shooting charts, I used to love NBA.com/hotspots but they haven't updated all year.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
I'm not sure Spoelstra commands the respect necessary to make the changes. It's only a matter of time before Riley coaches. A couple more losses soon might do it.
Kev4029
Footballguy
When your two best players can't hit jumpers they need players around them that can hit those jumpers. The blame for that should be spread evenly amongst Wade and Lebron (because they still can't shoot after 7 years in the NBA), Spoelstra for not putting the right players on the floor and setting players up to hit jumpers, and the management for not getting enough jump shooters that can also play basketball.
boubucarow
Footballguy
I miss hot spots and finding in the paint stats is pretty difficult as well. Honestly, I agree with you. James, Wade, and Bosh are often still taking the difficult shots they always took instead of working off of each other for easy baskets. Miller will help to extend the floor and they will become more and more explosive on offense as the season progresses. So for the regular season, they just need to work out the kinks and they will be fine. As for the post season, I always believed they were ill constructed and stand little chance of winning the title.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
I don't agree with the statements that they have no shooters. House and Jones are deadly outside shooters. Yes, they are complete liabilities on the defensive and but the one thing they do offer is great shooting. The panic is not surprising, but I don't think it is warranted. It is a little over a month into the season. Gives these guys some time to play together. Wade wasn't there the entire preseason. They've had about 12 games together and people are expecting pure domination?
Kev4029
Footballguy
I never said anything about having not shooters, I said that House and Jones can't play basketball, they can definitely shoot though.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
No, I think they were just expecting them to handle Indiana at home.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Raptors went into Orlando and won. Is the sky falling in Orlando too?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
1. Orlando is 9-4 with the four-point loss to Toronto. Miami is 8-6 after the 16 point loss to Indiana.2. Most bookmakers and predictions had the Heat winning more games than the Magic.
3. I'm sure some Orlando fans were a little upset after the loss.
4. Nobody is saying the sky is falling. But remember, this is a team that had a huge "Yes We Did" celebration after their summer signings. The obvious implication was that something significant had already been accomplished. It's fair to question- and poke fun at- a team that celebrates its offseason like that and comes out of the gate 8-6 with a double-digit home loss to a lottery team topping it off. I've been a defender of the Heat and their early season struggles as simple early growing pains in this thread (just look back a couple pages), but I have to admit that the loss to Indiana has me wondering about this team.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
I'm getting a good laugh at them too but a loss to Indiana 14 games into the season is really not a big deal. Any team can win on any given night in the NBA and there are hundreds of examples to prove it. Indiana (and everyone who plays Miami) brought their A game and a Miami team who is still trying to 'gel' didn't. By the end of the season they'll be playing at a far higher level and no one will care that they lost by 16 points to Indiana in November. It is the 14th game of the season.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
They might care if it costs them home court. Not that Miami is a great home court, but you'd like to avoid potentially playing 4 in the other team's house at least. Also how they're seeded is important. You'd think they'd like to avoid a playoff run that would have them see both Orlando and Boston, which would likely require top seed.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I agree with most of this, but there is something unsettling about a 16 point home loss to Indiana that wasn't there before. I just looked quickly through the Lakers 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 schedules, and there's only one double-digit home loss to a mediocre team: an eleven point loss in late 2008 to a Pistons team that was 7-2 at the time and ended up as the 8 seed.
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Kev4029
Footballguy
Can't say for sure yet, I believe that the Heat will improve with more time together and with Miller in the lineup. Clearly the Heat would get beat up in the paint if this mystical creature "Healthy Bynum in June" is playing with Odom and Gasol. I also think having Kobe run around following Wade or Lebron would really affect him on the offensive end.If the November 23rd Heat played a healthy Lakers team in a seven game series it would be a complete debacle for the Heat, but it would also never come to that because there is no way the Heat would be able to win 3 series to get to the finals. Sounds like the Heat are getting Dampier who is a small step in the right direction (and may also release Stackhouse to get a roster spot to sign Damp, which is also a step in the right direction). When a guy like Peja or Redd gets bought out later in the season, Miami is also fairly likely to get them, which will greatly help with bench depth. I think by April you will see House, Jones, Howard, Magloire and Arroyo getting less burn, with a couple imports (Redd, Peja, etc) eating up some of that time along with a healthy Chalmers and Miller.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
I agree. But I think there primary goal right now is/should be learning how to play together and not looking at seeding in the playoffs. They are going to be in tough against anyone they match-up against in the playoffs this year.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Those Laker teams had played with each other for more than 14 games.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Sure- although not much more. The Gasol "trade" came with a couple months left in the 2008 season. And remember that LeBron, Wade and Bosh have experience on the court together for Team USA.Like I said, not reason to panic, but it's fair to ask questions.
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Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
The Gasol heist was adding one player to a team. Not gutting a team down to a couple players and completely rebuilding. And a few games/practices with Team USA, that is filled with all-star players and a great coaching is not at all the same as three guys, a bunch of scrubs and a mediocre coach.
No. 16
Footballguy
The great Dampier! The sad part is they actually do need him.
Kev4029
Footballguy
Because nobody plays defense? I'm not sure if you are joking with that question or not.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Yes, I'm defending their early season struggles. I've always thought the expectations for this team were waaay to much for this season and I'm just not shocked that they are struggling. If they are sitting around .500 in the new year, I will not be defending them. But seriously, it has been 14 games for a completely revamped team.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Seriously?
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I posted it in the Laker thread, but I have a suspicion that's a limited audience and I think this interview with Kobe Bryant is interesting/good enough that the regulars here might find it entertaining. Stick with it past the Michael Jackson part, it gets better.
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saintfool
Dead sexy
i read that this morning and found it pretty interesting. i would love to get kobe on the therapist couch to see what makes him tick. as it stands, that article is about as good as it gets. the spike lee doc from the previous year wasn't offering as much, i thought. oh, and very quietly, the spurs have the best record in the nba.
No. 16
Footballguy
Both of you guys are looking at it in the wrong light... based on offense. The Heat have no problems scoring the ball since they are Top 3 in eFG% differential (+5.1%) and #1 in Free Throw Rate Differential (+10.14). On defense they are doing good as evidenced by forcing +1.95 TOs more then the opponent and holding teams to the 2nd best DefEff @ 97.7, but looking at the 4th of 4 Factors to team success (eFG, FTR, TOR, and O-Reb Rate) you can see why the MIA has been getting beaten and why they need someone like Dampier.Team 4 Factors
They are 20th in the league in terms of O-REB rate differential at -1.36. This is a key stat because it shows how well your team controls the glass. If you look at regular Reb/GM, MIA is at 40.9 and opponents are at 41.0 so it may look like MIA is not as bad on the glass but looking at rebound rates tells the truth.
If you look at each players TRB% you can see MIA is led by Magloire (19%), Haslem (18%), and Z (16.7%), and Bosh (12.%). The only big men MIA has above average rebounding wise are Magloire, Haslem, and Z. Magloire is a total stiff, Haslem is injured, and Z only plays 18 mpg. For some reason Bosh has gone from being an average rebounder into a terrible one (though switching for Bargnani to Haslem is a big difference, but it shouldn't be THIS drastic). So it's pretty obvious that MIA lacks the inside presence to control the glass.
Adding Damp's career 16.6% (17+ the past 3 seasons w/ about 15 mpg) will certainly help beef up the front line, but that's only makes them equal at the 5 spot. The key is still Bosh and his sub par rebounding. While LBJ isn't rebounding nearly as well as he has in the past, Wade is currently rebounding above his career averages so those two balance out for the rest of the season.
So what do the Heat need to do? They have 3 options...
1) Find a player who can rebound like a big man and shoot 3s at a decent clip.
The only players who offer rebounding and 3 point shooting (TRB% > 14 since the avg rotation PF TRB is 14.6% +15 mpg AND >= 1 3PM) since 2009 season are...
This year or last:
- Troy Murphy, PF
- Ersan Ilyasova, SF
- Mehmet Okur, C
- Matt Barnes, SF
- Kevin Love, PF
2 years ago:
- Chuck V
- Ryan Andersen
As you can see those type of players are rare, so they can go to option #2...
2) Move Bosh to SF or less on court time with the Trio together (mainly Bosh sitting), so that they can field two big men who can rebound and go after rebound specialist like Reggie Evans, Ben Wallace, etc.
Again, I don't think that option is likely. So they are left to....
3) Hold status quo and hope Bosh becomes an average rebounder again. Mike Miller won't help as much as people think since his career 3pt is similar to House and James Jones, but maybe his all around play (passing, IQ) will make the Heat super efficient on offense that they can get by despite the rebounding differential. They do dominate 3 of the 4 Factors of winning.
All in all, the Heat will still be one of the best teams in the NBA, but unless they get more rebounding from Bosh AND an outside source, they likely will get handled in the playoffs by LA or Boston (not sure if Magic have enough offense to compete).
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the moops
Footballguy
Dampier is someone that every team in the league could use. 24 minutes of defense and rebounding. He got a bad rap because of the ridiculous contract he signed, but he is a borderline starting center in this league.
No. 16
Footballguy
He's serviceable no doubt, but when he was initially brought up in this thread in the off-season, I'm not sue if it was you or someone else, but they said adding Dampier would make them a LOCK to win the title. Never understood, how adding a borderline starting C to be your starting C makes a team a lock to win a title.
Kev4029
Footballguy
Much of the rebounding will come around, I think. Lebron and Bosh have both been averaging about 75% percent of what you would expect them too (if you compare this year to the last 4 or so) which is a cause for a fair amount of lost rebounds per game. Also, as you mention Miller won't be as much help as people believe, I think you are dead wrong. Miller has an incredibly multi-faceted game, and he will be replacing a large portion of minutes from both House and Jones. The result from that is going to be more rebounds (Miller has a TRB% of over 10% the last four years, compared to House this year at 4.3% and Jones at 4.9%) more ball movement and another playmaker on the court (Miller has a AST% of about 19% since he left Orlando years ago, compared to House at 10.8% and Jones at 4.8%) plus he will actually kind of defend his man.Maybe Riley can somehow work a Chalmers+ for Jason Thompson deal who would be a good fit as a 3rd/4th big who can rebound and hit jumpers.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
That was me. And I was only partially joking. I think this signing will help them out quite a bit.
Kev4029
Footballguy
From Bill Simmons ESPN Chat:
Kobe Bryant (Newport Beach, Ca)
Bill, I know you better have owned up to your mishandling of my pyramid placement in TBOB...
Bill Simmons (4:51 PM)
I moved you into the top 10, Mamba. You deserved it. And not even in 6 of every 24 copies... in every copy.
Kobe Bryant (Newport Beach, Ca)
Bill, I know you better have owned up to your mishandling of my pyramid placement in TBOB...
Bill Simmons (4:51 PM)
I moved you into the top 10, Mamba. You deserved it. And not even in 6 of every 24 copies... in every copy.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
From Bill Simmons ESPN Chat:
Kobe Bryant (Newport Beach, Ca)
Bill, I know you better have owned up to your mishandling of my pyramid placement in TBOB...
Bill Simmons (4:51 PM)
I moved you into the top 10, Mamba. You deserved it. And not even in 6 of every 24 copies... in every copy.
Big fan of Simmons' White Mamba nickname for Big Ben.
Kev4029
Footballguy
I caught that earlier in the chat and had a good chuckle. I don't agree with a good portion of what comes out of his mouth, but Simmons sure as hell entertains me.From Bill Simmons ESPN Chat:
Kobe Bryant (Newport Beach, Ca)
Bill, I know you better have owned up to your mishandling of my pyramid placement in TBOB...
Bill Simmons (4:51 PM)
I moved you into the top 10, Mamba. You deserved it. And not even in 6 of every 24 copies... in every copy.
No. 16
Footballguy
I pointed out LBJ is rebounding less, but that is offset by the fact that Wade is rebounding more than usual. So that's a wash there... LBJ will improve, Wade will decline. Again, the key here is if Bosh will improve his rebounding numbers (which I think he will). Miller is a very good rebounder at the SF position, but again he's not enough to mask what Bosh is currently providing on the glass, unless they play with Wade/LBJ/Miller at 1-2-3 but even then it's still in doubt. As for Mike Miller I understand he's a multi-faceted play maker, but as I pointed out the Heat are already VERY GOOD on the offensive end (4th in OffEff @ 107.9, 9th in eFG%, and 2nd in FTR). I just don't think Miller's improved play making will VASTLY improve the team since it does not address their interior weakness.Kev4029 said:
The Heat's Top 5 Units based on minutes played from basketballvalue.com are (as of 11/20):
1) Arroyo, Carlos - Wade, Dwyane - James, LeBron - Bosh, Chris - Anthony, Joel (109 min)
2) House, Eddie - Jones, James - James, LeBron - Haslem, Udonis - Ilgauskas, Zydrunas (51.27)
3) Arroyo, Carlos - Wade, Dwyane - James, LeBron - Bosh, Chris - Ilgauskas, Zydrunas (38.07)
4) Wade, Dwyane - Jones, James - James, LeBron - Haslem, Udonis - Bosh, Chris (35.42)
5) Arroyo, Carlos - Wade, Dwyane - James, LeBron - Haslem, Udonis - Bosh, Chris (unit)(17.82)
Let's see where Mike Miller would fit in....
Line up #1) Looking at this you can see why MIA can be beat since their most used lineup features two sub-par rebounders at the PF/C spot. Add Mike Miller in place of Arroyo and you still have Bosh/Anthony as sub-par rebounders.
Line up #2) Has the team's two best rebounders in the game since, but it is fairly weak on man defense and scoring. Adding Mike Miller to that rotation will help improve that squad and make it a 09-10 CAV-like starting unit.
Line up # 3) Is the "money" line up with the team's 4 best players playing together. Offensively, it will be unstoppable, but defensively we still have Bosh's poor rebounding and Z's lack of mobility. Still maybe their best lineup on paper.
Line up # 4/5) Sub in Miller for James Jones/Arroyo is a +, but subbing Haslem in for Z, limits the team's ability to protect the rim and again Bosh still sucks at rebounding (for now at least).
So looking at the rotations they have used you can see that Miller's impact is small because he's a perimeter based player.
If the Heat become the 65+ win team it will be due to an improvement on the glass, not because they are scoring more buckets.
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