OK, prediction:
The game goes back and forth the whole way until about 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter. At that point Miami takes control. They will win by a comfortable 10-12 points. LeBron will have a good, not great game. Wade will have a much better game offensively than in the last two games. Pierce and Rondo will play very well. But the key to this game will be Bosh's presence on defense; he will help to neutralize Garnett in the post.
Miami 102, Boston 90.
Let's grade this prediction...
"The game goes back and forth the whole way until about 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter".
There were 19 lead changes tonight, the last of which happened with 7;58 left in the 4th quarter. Full credit for the back-and-forth part, extra credit for nailing the turning point right down to the possession it happened.
"At that point Miami takes control. They will win by a comfortable 10-12 points."
LeBron's dunk with 7:58 left made it 83-82 MIA. Not only did MIA win comfortably by 13, BOS never even got a shot off to tie or take the lead in the last 8 minutes. The next possession was the Pierce turnover where Wade called timeout before the held ball scrum broke out. Then Bosh hit a three, and BOS never got closer than 4 the rest of the way. Some might ding you because the final differential was outside your window, but I'm giving you full credit because you were on the correct side of the spread, and folks following your advice would have stayed away from the 1Q- or 1H lines, and could have doubled up on a halftime line and cashed winning tickets following your advice.
"LeBron will have a good, not great game."
99% of NBA players would be thrilled to put 31-and-12 in a Game 7 win,great. By LeBron's normal standards it was good-not-great because of the low FG% and lack of hustle stats other than rebounds, but by his perceived performance in big games it was great. A good, not great call.
"Wade will have a much better game offensively than in the last two games."
An improvement over Game 6 for sure, about the same as Game 5 which wasn't all that bad offensively. While the letter of the call wasn't great, the spirit was there. Neither helps nor hurts the overall impression.
"Pierce and Rondo will play very well."
Missed on Pierce. Started cold, hit a couple shots in the 2nd to get the team going, didn't really distinguish himself defensively, and made a couple of bad plays as MIA was taking over.
Rondo was fantastic. Correct call, but IMO low level of difficulty as Rondo is a known mismatch for MIA.
"But the key to this game will be Bosh's presence on defense; he will help to neutralize Garnett in the post."
You were correct to be long on Bosh when a lot of folks, including me, we shorting him. He took some of the rebounding burden off of LeBron which stretched out LBJ's fuel supply, and hit a couple of big shots in the fourth when BOS was ready to sell out on stopping LeBron and Wade.
"Miami 102, Boston 90."
Overall I have to give this prediction an "A". There were a few quibbles with individual projections, but the call on the flow of the game and final result were so good they neutralized nitpicks on the small stuff. You were on the correct side of the spread, total, knew to avoid the 1H line, and had the game mapped out well enough for those wont to hitting halftime lines would have banged the correct side there, too.