I think I'm getting too cute tonight, so this will go badly - betting on efficient offense and defense. Probably shoulda split up Bama and Creighton into two separate bets, but c'est la'vie.
SDSU muddying up the game early then Miller takes over and Bama wins going away. The hedge is if Bradley and Trammell get hot from deep and they're able to shorten the game, but I don't think there's enough offense here for the upset.
Bama -5 Houston -5 +171 (dk boost)
Bama 1H Under 35.5 Over 69.5 Miller Over 25 P/R/A +330
I wanted to like Miami more, but didn't realize they only have 1 win over a Kenpom top 25 (at home) to go with 3 losses (2 blowouts). They have the firepower to keep pace (fun team), but think this defense may be too much for them. When healthy Sasser's been held under this number just once since Feb 5 and Miami's defensive efficiency is mediocre. Can upset, but Houston probably has to go cold.
Hou 1H Over 34.5 Sasser Over 17.5 pts +210
Betting on a fast start, leaning on the size advantage down low leading to open 3's later. There is some get ugly potential, but I was impressed with the grit of Princeton and think they could hang around enough to break the -10.
Creighton 1H -6 Over 74.5 Kalbrenner Over 15.5 +359
Don't have a good read on this so passing on the Bama + Texas ML fanduel boost. Leaning against the worse defensive team, but Xavier's veterans can shoot their way out of it. Not saying much given the spreads, but I think they're the clear best shot at an upset.
TX ML Over 1H 69.5 +175
Planning to live bet Texas/Xavier based on the start - if Xavier falls behind take them + the number and if Texas falls behind then take the over as long as it isn't too high into the 150's.
Now, fade away...