The Z Machine
Footballguy
Another way to think about this is that to win $3k, you have $6250 - 25 - 3000 = $3225 to work with as a hedge,
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NCAA Basketball Thread - 2022-3 Season (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter whoknew
- Start date
The Z Machine
Footballguy
The odds for the future bets don't work out well for you here. The vig is too high.
In fact, there's no real way to balance UCONN and Purdue.
In fact, there's no real way to balance UCONN and Purdue.
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Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
what odds would you need to do it? and then maybe monitoring the live betting odds is a way to get there? certainly not guaranteed, but it's something.
That was a great battle. Those 2 3s by ISU seemed to be daggers, but no. Shot too quickly up 2 with a minute left.
And that last drive by Seton Hall for the winning score was impressive.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I think it would be better to hedge each game alone. Take $800 and hedge the Purdue game at -450 for $178 profit if NCST loses.
If NCST wins the semi, take another $4500 to hedge the final. If odds are again -450, the profit from that wager is $1000. So the net gain is $1000-800 = $200 In this case.
If NCST wins, you're up $750. You probably would prefer NCST to win so you can edge there some.
You can play with the numbers some if you'd like to make it even. What isn't known is the line if NCST wins since it's still TBD who'd they face.
If NCST wins the semi, take another $4500 to hedge the final. If odds are again -450, the profit from that wager is $1000. So the net gain is $1000-800 = $200 In this case.
If NCST wins, you're up $750. You probably would prefer NCST to win so you can edge there some.
You can play with the numbers some if you'd like to make it even. What isn't known is the line if NCST wins since it's still TBD who'd they face.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
When did you become a professional gambler???
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Eh, I like math and just went to Vegas for March Madness opening weekend. Plus MD legalized sports betting last year.
I don't turn a profit...
Capella
Footballguy
Almost certainly will not happen but a tenner on NCSU and Bama pays 255. Might throw it down just for chance. Otherwise I think I’m just on UConn to cover.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
After I did the math, you can't really get any better than $180-200 guaranteed profit.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
MilkChamberlain
tri-man 47
Footballguy
True. But she’s got to get her head in the game. Too much energy put into the LSU game? Neither team really clicking yet.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
I feel like South Carolina will play either of these teams off the court.
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
Yeah, SC's got a huge size advantage over either team, shoots 40% from 3, and has an endless supply of athletic defenders to throw at Clark/Bueckers.
This game is fun but I think they're playing for 2nd.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Sure…..
UConn (who I’m rooting for) has been incredibly physical all game. The last foul on them (when they showed a brunette Karen in the standings making an “L” on her forehead) was one of the most obvious shooting fouls I’ve seen this tourney.
UConn is holding Clark all over the court. Basically every UConn player should be fouled out by now.
And again, I’m rooting for UConn. I’ve been a Bueckers fan since her high school legend days.
And Iowa has just been dainty and not physical at all? I’m not saying is that it’s been pretty even but the calls have not. Until the last few on Iowa, it was basically 14-6 in foul calls and no one on Iowa was in trouble. UConn had to stop playing physical and let Clark drive because no one could risk a 3rd foul before halftime.
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Cmon.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Ok, now after that weak call I think it’s fixed
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Bad turnover but she’s had a fantastic game.
The Gator
Footballguy
Wouldn't be this close if not for her.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
For real. C’mon…awful
timschochet
Footballguy
Not saying it was fixed or anything but….
There are a bunch of people like me who are casually watching this game, and who wouldn’t be watching the next one if Iowa lost. Now we will.
But I don’t think it was fixed.
There are a bunch of people like me who are casually watching this game, and who wouldn’t be watching the next one if Iowa lost. Now we will.
But I don’t think it was fixed.
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
What a shame to end the game like that. That's not called 80-90% of the time. To call it with 4 seconds left, down one in the national semi-final is just awful. UConn jobbed, fans robbed.
