Officer Pete Malloy
Footballguy
The farm? Bet it on Cal Poly.6:40, truTV, Dayton: Cal Poly vs. Texas Southern (Kevin Harlan/Len Elmore/Reggie Miller//Rachel Nichols )
The farm? Bet it on Cal Poly.6:40, truTV, Dayton: Cal Poly vs. Texas Southern (Kevin Harlan/Len Elmore/Reggie Miller//Rachel Nichols )
The only thing on your list Ohio State does well is the defense. They don't pass well, they don't hit the offensive glass at all, and they are a horrendous perimeter shooting team. The big worry I'd have is that Ross gets in that middle spot in the zone and hits a ton of jumpers, but I don't think he can penetrate from there given Syracuse's inside defense. I actually think Syracuse got a nice draw because nobody in that end of the bracket can shoot.Teams that give us the most problems are in the mold of Pittsburgh. Tough, physical man to man d, pass the ball well in the interior and hit the offensive glass. I'd rather see them play a great shooting team over a Pitt, Ohio St, VCU any day. Boeheim baits teams into early three's and then extends the zone and takes those looks away. My list of 9 teams we didn't want to face were Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Ohio St, Florida, VCU, Arizona, Cinci, Virginia. All those teams a bad matchup and we have 4 in the region.That's crazy. OSU can't shoot AT ALL. Dream matchup for Cuse and their zone.Kansas best case 2 for Syracuse but OSU worst case 6. Every team has a tough draw it seems. West looks weakest at first glance.
Didn't follow the women's side this season. Just looked at UConn's game results for the first time. They didn't play a close game - their smallest MOV was a roadie at RPI 7 that they won by 11.UConn women are huge favorites against the field this year (-400). Crazy. (?)
Would rather play Kansas than OSU.The only thing on your list Ohio State does well is the defense. They don't pass well, they don't hit the offensive glass at all, and they are a horrendous perimeter shooting team. The big worry I'd have is that Ross gets in that middle spot in the zone and hits a ton of jumpers, but I don't think he can penetrate from there given Syracuse's inside defense. I actually think Syracuse got a nice draw because nobody in that end of the bracket can shoot.Teams that give us the most problems are in the mold of Pittsburgh. Tough, physical man to man d, pass the ball well in the interior and hit the offensive glass. I'd rather see them play a great shooting team over a Pitt, Ohio St, VCU any day. Boeheim baits teams into early three's and then extends the zone and takes those looks away. My list of 9 teams we didn't want to face were Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Ohio St, Florida, VCU, Arizona, Cinci, Virginia. All those teams a bad matchup and we have 4 in the region.That's crazy. OSU can't shoot AT ALL. Dream matchup for Cuse and their zone.Kansas best case 2 for Syracuse but OSU worst case 6. Every team has a tough draw it seems. West looks weakest at first glance.
Bracket Project had UK as a 6-seed. They finished the regular season 18th in RPI and 17th in KenPom.So what seed does Kentucky deserve? Or are you just mad b/c they are playing WSU and have the names Kentucky on their jersey?NCAA does not want WSU in the final four again, so much...that they made Louisville A 4 seed and Kentucky an 8 seed. BS.
You know Syracuse much better than me, obviously, but as a Big Ten guy I've seen a lot of Ohio State and I don't see them beating Syracuse at all. Maybe if the Orange cant' score and it's a 50-44 game or something, but that's about it.Would rather play Kansas than OSU.The only thing on your list Ohio State does well is the defense. They don't pass well, they don't hit the offensive glass at all, and they are a horrendous perimeter shooting team. The big worry I'd have is that Ross gets in that middle spot in the zone and hits a ton of jumpers, but I don't think he can penetrate from there given Syracuse's inside defense. I actually think Syracuse got a nice draw because nobody in that end of the bracket can shoot.Teams that give us the most problems are in the mold of Pittsburgh. Tough, physical man to man d, pass the ball well in the interior and hit the offensive glass. I'd rather see them play a great shooting team over a Pitt, Ohio St, VCU any day. Boeheim baits teams into early three's and then extends the zone and takes those looks away. My list of 9 teams we didn't want to face were Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Ohio St, Florida, VCU, Arizona, Cinci, Virginia. All those teams a bad matchup and we have 4 in the region.That's crazy. OSU can't shoot AT ALL. Dream matchup for Cuse and their zone.Kansas best case 2 for Syracuse but OSU worst case 6. Every team has a tough draw it seems. West looks weakest at first glance.
There's definitely no chance of that happening.You know Syracuse much better than me, obviously, but as a Big Ten guy I've seen a lot of Ohio State and I don't see them beating Syracuse at all. Maybe if the Orange cant' score and it's a 50-44 game or something, but that's about it.Would rather play Kansas than OSU.The only thing on your list Ohio State does well is the defense. They don't pass well, they don't hit the offensive glass at all, and they are a horrendous perimeter shooting team. The big worry I'd have is that Ross gets in that middle spot in the zone and hits a ton of jumpers, but I don't think he can penetrate from there given Syracuse's inside defense. I actually think Syracuse got a nice draw because nobody in that end of the bracket can shoot.Teams that give us the most problems are in the mold of Pittsburgh. Tough, physical man to man d, pass the ball well in the interior and hit the offensive glass. I'd rather see them play a great shooting team over a Pitt, Ohio St, VCU any day. Boeheim baits teams into early three's and then extends the zone and takes those looks away. My list of 9 teams we didn't want to face were Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Ohio St, Florida, VCU, Arizona, Cinci, Virginia. All those teams a bad matchup and we have 4 in the region.That's crazy. OSU can't shoot AT ALL. Dream matchup for Cuse and their zone.Kansas best case 2 for Syracuse but OSU worst case 6. Every team has a tough draw it seems. West looks weakest at first glance.
Agree (for now) on Florida, Arizona, and - as much as I hate it - Duke. I just can't get behind Nova. I think I'm still scarred from picking the '94 team that lost in the first round to Weber St.Using tournament statistics that date back 30 years and using a number of qualifiers and disqualifiers based on them at various stages of the tournament, I've come up with a Final Four of:
S - Florida
W - Arizona
E - Villanova
M - Duke
The championship game under this model is Arizona over Villanova.
I'm not sure how I feel about this, but I've used this model of picking the Final Four and Champ or something similar for a number of years now, and finish my bracket pools in the money almost every year.
Sure, but a 50-44 game has a GREAT chance of happening in that game. I think OSU needed to avoid all teams that will make them score to win and they basically did that. I don't think OSU has a great shot of making it very far, but I don't think the draw is the problem.Frostillicus said:You know Syracuse much better than me, obviously, but as a Big Ten guy I've seen a lot of Ohio State and I don't see them beating Syracuse at all. Maybe if the Orange cant' score and it's a 50-44 game or something, but that's about it.Nipsey said:Would rather play Kansas than OSU.Frostillicus said:The only thing on your list Ohio State does well is the defense. They don't pass well, they don't hit the offensive glass at all, and they are a horrendous perimeter shooting team. The big worry I'd have is that Ross gets in that middle spot in the zone and hits a ton of jumpers, but I don't think he can penetrate from there given Syracuse's inside defense. I actually think Syracuse got a nice draw because nobody in that end of the bracket can shoot.Nipsey said:Teams that give us the most problems are in the mold of Pittsburgh. Tough, physical man to man d, pass the ball well in the interior and hit the offensive glass. I'd rather see them play a great shooting team over a Pitt, Ohio St, VCU any day. Boeheim baits teams into early three's and then extends the zone and takes those looks away. My list of 9 teams we didn't want to face were Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Ohio St, Florida, VCU, Arizona, Cinci, Virginia. All those teams a bad matchup and we have 4 in the region.Captain Quinoa said:That's crazy. OSU can't shoot AT ALL. Dream matchup for Cuse and their zone.Nipsey said:Kansas best case 2 for Syracuse but OSU worst case 6. Every team has a tough draw it seems. West looks weakest at first glance.
Do you have any opinions on statistically fair and appropriately rewarding scoring systems for running the bracket?Scoresman said:Using tournament statistics that date back 30 years and using a number of qualifiers and disqualifiers based on them at various stages of the tournament, I've come up with a Final Four of:
S - Florida
W - Arizona
E - Villanova
M - Duke
The championship game under this model is Arizona over Villanova.
I'm not sure how I feel about this, but I've used this model of picking the Final Four and Champ or something similar for a number of years now, and finish my bracket pools in the money almost every year.
The past few years UConn and ND have both been in the Big East and would usually play 3 really tough games with each other. This year with ND in the ACC it's a mystery.Bruce Dickinson said:Didn't follow the women's side this season. Just looked at UConn's game results for the first time. They didn't play a close game - their smallest MOV was a roadie at RPI 7 that they won by 11.Good Posting Judge said:UConn women are huge favorites against the field this year (-400). Crazy. (?)
But get this: they aren't #1 in the women's RPI. Notre Dame is undefeated with a similar curbstomping MOV against a tougher schedule.
Haven't seen either team play, but just knowing that leads me to believe UConn -400 against the field is a no-play.
I have many. Not sure what you mean.Do you have any opinions on statistically fair and appropriately rewarding scoring systems for running the bracket?Scoresman said:Using tournament statistics that date back 30 years and using a number of qualifiers and disqualifiers based on them at various stages of the tournament, I've come up with a Final Four of:
S - Florida
W - Arizona
E - Villanova
M - Duke
The championship game under this model is Arizona over Villanova.
I'm not sure how I feel about this, but I've used this model of picking the Final Four and Champ or something similar for a number of years now, and finish my bracket pools in the money almost every year.
Not through looking at each matchup, but one 5-12 I like is Harvard over Cincy. Seems to be the popular pick and it has the stats to back it up too.Anyone see a 12/13 that can win a couple games? I usually pick one to the Sweet 16 but I think the 4's are too strong this year. Maybe SFA?
how many points should be awarded for each round. Like 2-4-8-16-32-64 or 1-2-4-8-16-32, etc.I have many. Not sure what you mean.Do you have any opinions on statistically fair and appropriately rewarding scoring systems for running the bracket?Scoresman said:Using tournament statistics that date back 30 years and using a number of qualifiers and disqualifiers based on them at various stages of the tournament, I've come up with a Final Four of:
S - Florida
W - Arizona
E - Villanova
M - Duke
The championship game under this model is Arizona over Villanova.
I'm not sure how I feel about this, but I've used this model of picking the Final Four and Champ or something similar for a number of years now, and finish my bracket pools in the money almost every year.
Oh I see, gotcha. I like placing more value on upset picking and early round picks over picking the final champ so I tend to dislike the ones that double the points each round. 1-2-4-7-11-16 sounds pretty good to me.how many points should be awarded for each round. Like 2-4-8-16-32-64 or 1-2-4-8-16-32, etc.I have many. Not sure what you mean.Do you have any opinions on statistically fair and appropriately rewarding scoring systems for running the bracket?Scoresman said:Using tournament statistics that date back 30 years and using a number of qualifiers and disqualifiers based on them at various stages of the tournament, I've come up with a Final Four of:
S - Florida
W - Arizona
E - Villanova
M - Duke
The championship game under this model is Arizona over Villanova.
I'm not sure how I feel about this, but I've used this model of picking the Final Four and Champ or something similar for a number of years now, and finish my bracket pools in the money almost every year.
I did 1-2-4-7-11-16 last year, with upset points in round 1. If I remember right, I read that 1-2-4-7-11-16 most evenly weights the totals of each round or something.
I want the rounds to be relatively equal in terms of potential points awarded but also reward the appropriate level of difficult.
The entire AAC got under-seeded. Could happen, but I'd still pick UVA straight up.Here's a second round potential upset alert. 8 seed Memphis over 1 seed Virginia.
Taking 8/9 seeds over the 1 seed in round 2 is a very risky proposition. Historically, 1 seeds are 101-15 against 8/9 seeds in round 2. However, Virginia has the qualities of being a 1 seed upset victim and Memphis has the qualities of 8/9 seed upsetter.
Would love the homer opinion of this potential matchup.
Not bad, I hate the ones so weighted on the champion. Feels like the first couple weekends are irrelevant. Though I suppose that there is a much higher degree of difficulty in picking the F4/champion.We do our pool 1-2-3-5-7-10. Had one year where the guy who won didn't even pick the champion correctly.
I like North Dakota St.Anyone see a 12/13 that can win a couple games? I usually pick one to the Sweet 16 but I think the 4's are too strong this year. Maybe SFA?
No schtick here. I really get into this stuff.Great shtick Scoresman has going here.
On the other hand...Kentucky had 10 losses playing in the 7th worst conference in the country (slightly ahead of the American Athletic Conference), hasn't beaten a tournament team in 18 games and has a total of three wins against tournament teams. Only 1-6 in top 25 play. Before UK starts crying about their seed and having to play Wichita State they need to actually play and win the game against K-State who was 6-3 in top 25 play and has beaten 7 tournament teams.Bruce Dickinson said:Bracket Project had UK as a 6-seed. They finished the regular season 18th in RPI and 17th in KenPom.sporthenry said:So what seed does Kentucky deserve? Or are you just mad b/c they are playing WSU and have the names Kentucky on their jersey?Ballstein said:NCAA does not want WSU in the final four again, so much...that they made Louisville A 4 seed and Kentucky an 8 seed. BS.
How do you feel about SFA?What do people see in North Dakota St? They're not one of my obvious 5-12 upsets mainly because they don't have the recent tournament experience. 12 seeds who were in the previous year's tournament have a .579 win percentage vs. 5 seeds so that's one of the key things to look for. Oklahoma also does not show signs of a typical 5 seed underavhiever.
Don't like them at all. They have the same lack of tournament experience as ND State, plus not enough frontcourt scoring to put them in the group of 12 seed overachievers. VCU was also underseeded making that upset even more unlikely.How do you feel about SFA?What do people see in North Dakota St? They're not one of my obvious 5-12 upsets mainly because they don't have the recent tournament experience. 12 seeds who were in the previous year's tournament have a .579 win percentage vs. 5 seeds so that's one of the key things to look for. Oklahoma also does not show signs of a typical 5 seed underavhiever.
A couple of ways to get around this. The easier method is to offer upset bonuses for the first couple of rounds (CBS allows you to add the value of the seed, not the difference, so in that case my scoring by round usually looks something like 10+seed, 20+seed, 35+seed, 60+seed, 100, 150).Not bad, I hate the ones so weighted on the champion. Feels like the first couple weekends are irrelevant. Though I suppose that there is a much higher degree of difficulty in picking the F4/champion.We do our pool 1-2-3-5-7-10. Had one year where the guy who won didn't even pick the champion correctly.
Michigan is very beatable. Conceivable they could win 2.How far do you guys have Arizona State going? Jahii Carson is a superb guard but they're so erratic on offense.
Their best player is a VERY young junior (started for the U-19 national team last summer) named Elfrid Payton. He's a really nice player with a pretty versatile game. 19 points, 6 boards, 6 assists and 2.3 Steals per game) Good wingspan and excellent in transition (which should help, as Creighton likes to play fast). The only problem is he has no jump shot to speak of. Poor FT shooter as well. I'm interested to see what this kid does for next year. If he's close to graduating, (allowing him to finish up over the summer) I could see him jumping ship to a bigger program for his senior year and becoming the hottest transfer recruit on the market. He could also enter the draft.Someone tell me about Louisiana Lafayette. They meet the statistical indicators of a 14 seed Cinderella. Can they beat Creighton?
What are these statistical indicators you speak of?Someone tell me about Louisiana Lafayette. They meet the statistical indicators of a 14 seed Cinderella. Can they beat Creighton?
My data is at work so I don't have them handy but the way I do this is to take data from a blog I subscribe to which has historical data from about 30 years of tournament history. I then have a spreadsheet which has the stats of all 68 teams in this year's tournament and compare the matchups to their historic counterparts. I also use kenpom data.What are these statistical indicators you speak of?Someone tell me about Louisiana Lafayette. They meet the statistical indicators of a 14 seed Cinderella. Can they beat Creighton?
good stuff. Would like to hear more tomorrowMy data is at work so I don't have them handy but the way I do this is to take data from a blog I subscribe to which has historical data from about 30 years of tournament history. I then have a spreadsheet which has the stats of all 68 teams in this year's tournament and compare the matchups to their historic counterparts. I also use kenpom data.What are these statistical indicators you speak of?Someone tell me about Louisiana Lafayette. They meet the statistical indicators of a 14 seed Cinderella. Can they beat Creighton?
For example, I know that in round 2, 1 seeds have a 101-15 record against their 8/9 opponents, making it almost bracket suicide to take an 8 or 9 there. That alone is valuable information. Then you can drill down further to look at the 15 8s and 9s that won and see that they all had previous year tournament experience, have a certain scoring margin minimum, have won a certain number of games in their last 10, and get at least XXX% of their points from their guards (exact numbers are at work, sorry). Apply that to this year, and 8 seed Memphis has these characteristics, so if you're inclined to see Virginia exit quickly, there's your backup.
Sounds likegood stuff. Would like to hear more tomorrowMy data is at work so I don't have them handy but the way I do this is to take data from a blog I subscribe to which has historical data from about 30 years of tournament history. I then have a spreadsheet which has the stats of all 68 teams in this year's tournament and compare the matchups to their historic counterparts. I also use kenpom data.What are these statistical indicators you speak of?Someone tell me about Louisiana Lafayette. They meet the statistical indicators of a 14 seed Cinderella. Can they beat Creighton?
For example, I know that in round 2, 1 seeds have a 101-15 record against their 8/9 opponents, making it almost bracket suicide to take an 8 or 9 there. That alone is valuable information. Then you can drill down further to look at the 15 8s and 9s that won and see that they all had previous year tournament experience, have a certain scoring margin minimum, have won a certain number of games in their last 10, and get at least XXX% of their points from their guards (exact numbers are at work, sorry). Apply that to this year, and 8 seed Memphis has these characteristics, so if you're inclined to see Virginia exit quickly, there's your backup.