NCAA HOOPS THREAD! -- K petitions to get Maui Jim Maui Invitational moved to Transylvania (1 Viewer)

[Scoresman]

Someone tell me about Louisiana Lafayette. They meet the statistical indicators of a 14 seed Cinderella. Can they beat Creighton?

What are these statistical indicators you speak of?

My data is at work so I don't have them handy but the way I do this is to take data from a blog I subscribe to which has historical data from about 30 years of tournament history. I then have a spreadsheet which has the stats of all 68 teams in this year's tournament and compare the matchups to their historic counterparts. I also use kenpom data.

For example, I know that in round 2, 1 seeds have a 101-15 record against their 8/9 opponents, making it almost bracket suicide to take an 8 or 9 there. That alone is valuable information. Then you can drill down further to look at the 15 8s and 9s that won and see that they all had previous year tournament experience, have a certain scoring margin minimum, have won a certain number of games in their last 10, and get at least XXX% of their points from their guards (exact numbers are at work, sorry). Apply that to this year, and 8 seed Memphis has these characteristics, so if you're inclined to see Virginia exit quickly, there's your backup.

good stuff. Would like to hear more tomorrow

Sounds like

http://wp.bracketscience.com/

Lots and lots of different statistical models

Yup. A fantastic source of info there. ?

 

[Scoresman]

Finished my initial bracket run and realized I only had 4 upsets, and that isn't going to fly. In the modern era, there have been about 8-9 upsets per tournament and that number has jumped to about 11 upsets per year in the last four tournaments. Considering how everyone says there's more parity this year, I expect similar number of upsets.

- VCU/UCLA is such a key game and a tough one to predict. If VCU wins, I have a fair amount of confidence in them upsetting Florida in the Sweet 16.

-Memphis/George Washington is another key game for me and an absolute toss-up. I can see Memphis upsetting Virginia if they advance. Don't have the balls to pull the trigger yet.

- I don't like any 10 seeds to upset 7s in the first round this year which is unusual. Texas is the closest to being an upset candidate, however.

- The only 12 seed I have any confidence in is Harvard. ND State comes second, but not enough for me to pull the trigger... yet.

- I see one 6-11 upset and one "maybe". I like either Iowa or Tennessee over UMass (I like Tennessee more than Iowa, however). The "maybe" is Dayton over Ohio State. Dayton has all the signs of an upsetter, but Ohio State does not have the signs of a typical first round victim. Tough one because if Ohio State wins this as I currently have it, I have them going to the elite 8.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Finished my initial bracket run and realized I only had 4 upsets, and that isn't going to fly. In the modern era, there have been about 8-9 upsets per tournament and that number has jumped to about 11 upsets per year in the last four tournaments. Considering how everyone says there's more parity this year, I expect similar number of upsets.

- VCU/UCLA is such a key game and a tough one to predict. If VCU wins, I have a fair amount of confidence in them upsetting Florida in the Sweet 16.

-Memphis/George Washington is another key game for me and an absolute toss-up. I can see Memphis upsetting Virginia if they advance. Don't have the balls to pull the trigger yet.

- I don't like any 10 seeds to upset 7s in the first round this year which is unusual. Texas is the closest to being an upset candidate, however.

- The only 12 seed I have any confidence in is Harvard. ND State comes second, but not enough for me to pull the trigger... yet.

- I see one 6-11 upset and one "maybe". I like either Iowa or Tennessee over UMass (I like Tennessee more than Iowa, however). The "maybe" is Dayton over Ohio State. Dayton has all the signs of an upsetter, but Ohio State does not have the signs of a typical first round victim. Tough one because if Ohio State wins this as I currently have it, I have them going to the elite 8.

Does this bracket score more heavily for picking lower seeded teams?

 

[Scoresman]

Finished my initial bracket run and realized I only had 4 upsets, and that isn't going to fly. In the modern era, there have been about 8-9 upsets per tournament and that number has jumped to about 11 upsets per year in the last four tournaments. Considering how everyone says there's more parity this year, I expect similar number of upsets.

- VCU/UCLA is such a key game and a tough one to predict. If VCU wins, I have a fair amount of confidence in them upsetting Florida in the Sweet 16.

-Memphis/George Washington is another key game for me and an absolute toss-up. I can see Memphis upsetting Virginia if they advance. Don't have the balls to pull the trigger yet.

- I don't like any 10 seeds to upset 7s in the first round this year which is unusual. Texas is the closest to being an upset candidate, however.

- The only 12 seed I have any confidence in is Harvard. ND State comes second, but not enough for me to pull the trigger... yet.

- I see one 6-11 upset and one "maybe". I like either Iowa or Tennessee over UMass (I like Tennessee more than Iowa, however). The "maybe" is Dayton over Ohio State. Dayton has all the signs of an upsetter, but Ohio State does not have the signs of a typical first round victim. Tough one because if Ohio State wins this as I currently have it, I have them going to the elite 8.

Does this bracket score more heavily for picking lower seeded teams?

The pools I enter typically reward making the most correct picks over prioritizing picking the correct champ so my strategy usually revolves around that. So, not the kind where the points double each round.

However, the way I usually do this is to start by picking my final 4 and champ and then fill out the rest of the picks.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Finished my initial bracket run and realized I only had 4 upsets, and that isn't going to fly. In the modern era, there have been about 8-9 upsets per tournament and that number has jumped to about 11 upsets per year in the last four tournaments. Considering how everyone says there's more parity this year, I expect similar number of upsets.

- VCU/UCLA is such a key game and a tough one to predict. If VCU wins, I have a fair amount of confidence in them upsetting Florida in the Sweet 16.

-Memphis/George Washington is another key game for me and an absolute toss-up. I can see Memphis upsetting Virginia if they advance. Don't have the balls to pull the trigger yet.

- I don't like any 10 seeds to upset 7s in the first round this year which is unusual. Texas is the closest to being an upset candidate, however.

- The only 12 seed I have any confidence in is Harvard. ND State comes second, but not enough for me to pull the trigger... yet.

- I see one 6-11 upset and one "maybe". I like either Iowa or Tennessee over UMass (I like Tennessee more than Iowa, however). The "maybe" is Dayton over Ohio State. Dayton has all the signs of an upsetter, but Ohio State does not have the signs of a typical first round victim. Tough one because if Ohio State wins this as I currently have it, I have them going to the elite 8.

Does this bracket score more heavily for picking lower seeded teams?

The pools I enter typically reward making the most correct picks over prioritizing picking the correct champ so my strategy usually revolves around that. So, not the kind where the points double each round.

However, the way I usually do this is to start by picking my final 4 and champ and then fill out the rest of the picks.

If you're trying to get the most correct picks. why are you trying to hit a "quota" of upsets? Just pick the best teams. You can't find the upsets. That's why they're upsets.

 

[Premier]

Trying to guess the upsets is insane. Just pick chalk with one or two teams you believe may pull a surprise and you'll likely win. Even if there are 11-12 upsets a year, how the hell are you going to guess which ones they are?

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

Trying to guess the upsets is insane. Just pick chalk with one or two teams you believe may pull a surprise and you'll likely win. Even if there are 11-12 upsets a year, how the hell are you going to guess which ones they are?

Because Scoresman plays in a 32-team dynasty league with 53 man rosters and decimal yardage scoring. And he's in the money almost every year.Have fun in your cute little 8-team, TD-only office rec league, n00b.

 

[Scoresman]

Finished my initial bracket run and realized I only had 4 upsets, and that isn't going to fly. In the modern era, there have been about 8-9 upsets per tournament and that number has jumped to about 11 upsets per year in the last four tournaments. Considering how everyone says there's more parity this year, I expect similar number of upsets.

- VCU/UCLA is such a key game and a tough one to predict. If VCU wins, I have a fair amount of confidence in them upsetting Florida in the Sweet 16.

-Memphis/George Washington is another key game for me and an absolute toss-up. I can see Memphis upsetting Virginia if they advance. Don't have the balls to pull the trigger yet.

- I don't like any 10 seeds to upset 7s in the first round this year which is unusual. Texas is the closest to being an upset candidate, however.

- The only 12 seed I have any confidence in is Harvard. ND State comes second, but not enough for me to pull the trigger... yet.

- I see one 6-11 upset and one "maybe". I like either Iowa or Tennessee over UMass (I like Tennessee more than Iowa, however). The "maybe" is Dayton over Ohio State. Dayton has all the signs of an upsetter, but Ohio State does not have the signs of a typical first round victim. Tough one because if Ohio State wins this as I currently have it, I have them going to the elite 8.

Does this bracket score more heavily for picking lower seeded teams?

The pools I enter typically reward making the most correct picks over prioritizing picking the correct champ so my strategy usually revolves around that. So, not the kind where the points double each round.

However, the way I usually do this is to start by picking my final 4 and champ and then fill out the rest of the picks.

If you're trying to get the most correct picks. why are you trying to hit a "quota" of upsets? Just pick the best teams. You can't find the upsets. That's why they're upsets.

Because your picks get more accurate if you use historical data correctly. It's not about hitting a quota, it's about at the very least approaching a realistic number of upsets. I already know that a bracket with only 4 upsets is wrong.

I also consider the number crunching fun and am trying for the perfect bracket even though I know the odds.

 

[Scoresman]

Trying to guess the upsets is insane. Just pick chalk with one or two teams you believe may pull a surprise and you'll likely win. Even if there are 11-12 upsets a year, how the hell are you going to guess which ones they are?

Because Scoresman plays in a 32-team dynasty league with 53 man rosters and decimal yardage scoring. And he's in the money almost every year.Have fun in your cute little 8-team, TD-only office rec league, n00b.

Not sure when I pissed in your cheerios, but I only play in typical bracket pools, none of these complicated drafts you guys do here.

 

[Premier]

Trying to guess the upsets is insane. Just pick chalk with one or two teams you believe may pull a surprise and you'll likely win. Even if there are 11-12 upsets a year, how the hell are you going to guess which ones they are?

Because Scoresman plays in a 32-team dynasty league with 53 man rosters and decimal yardage scoring. And he's in the money almost every year.Have fun in your cute little 8-team, TD-only office rec league, n00b.

 

[Scoresman]

Trying to guess the upsets is insane. Just pick chalk with one or two teams you believe may pull a surprise and you'll likely win. Even if there are 11-12 upsets a year, how the hell are you going to guess which ones they are?

Ask my wife, she would consider me legally insane during the 5 days between Selection Sunday and the start of the tournament.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Finished my initial bracket run and realized I only had 4 upsets, and that isn't going to fly. In the modern era, there have been about 8-9 upsets per tournament and that number has jumped to about 11 upsets per year in the last four tournaments. Considering how everyone says there's more parity this year, I expect similar number of upsets.

- VCU/UCLA is such a key game and a tough one to predict. If VCU wins, I have a fair amount of confidence in them upsetting Florida in the Sweet 16.

-Memphis/George Washington is another key game for me and an absolute toss-up. I can see Memphis upsetting Virginia if they advance. Don't have the balls to pull the trigger yet.

- I don't like any 10 seeds to upset 7s in the first round this year which is unusual. Texas is the closest to being an upset candidate, however.

- The only 12 seed I have any confidence in is Harvard. ND State comes second, but not enough for me to pull the trigger... yet.

- I see one 6-11 upset and one "maybe". I like either Iowa or Tennessee over UMass (I like Tennessee more than Iowa, however). The "maybe" is Dayton over Ohio State. Dayton has all the signs of an upsetter, but Ohio State does not have the signs of a typical first round victim. Tough one because if Ohio State wins this as I currently have it, I have them going to the elite 8.

Does this bracket score more heavily for picking lower seeded teams?

The pools I enter typically reward making the most correct picks over prioritizing picking the correct champ so my strategy usually revolves around that. So, not the kind where the points double each round.

However, the way I usually do this is to start by picking my final 4 and champ and then fill out the rest of the picks.

If you're trying to get the most correct picks. why are you trying to hit a "quota" of upsets? Just pick the best teams. You can't find the upsets. That's why they're upsets.

Because your picks get more accurate if you use historical data correctly. It's not about hitting a quota, it's about at the very least approaching a realistic number of upsets. I already know that a bracket with only 4 upsets is wrong.

I also consider the number crunching fun and am trying for the perfect bracket even though I know the odds.

I already know that your bracket is wrong too. Know why? Because it's impossible to predict a perfect bracket.

 

[Scoresman]

Finished my initial bracket run and realized I only had 4 upsets, and that isn't going to fly. In the modern era, there have been about 8-9 upsets per tournament and that number has jumped to about 11 upsets per year in the last four tournaments. Considering how everyone says there's more parity this year, I expect similar number of upsets.

- VCU/UCLA is such a key game and a tough one to predict. If VCU wins, I have a fair amount of confidence in them upsetting Florida in the Sweet 16.

-Memphis/George Washington is another key game for me and an absolute toss-up. I can see Memphis upsetting Virginia if they advance. Don't have the balls to pull the trigger yet.

- I don't like any 10 seeds to upset 7s in the first round this year which is unusual. Texas is the closest to being an upset candidate, however.

- The only 12 seed I have any confidence in is Harvard. ND State comes second, but not enough for me to pull the trigger... yet.

- I see one 6-11 upset and one "maybe". I like either Iowa or Tennessee over UMass (I like Tennessee more than Iowa, however). The "maybe" is Dayton over Ohio State. Dayton has all the signs of an upsetter, but Ohio State does not have the signs of a typical first round victim. Tough one because if Ohio State wins this as I currently have it, I have them going to the elite 8.

Does this bracket score more heavily for picking lower seeded teams?

The pools I enter typically reward making the most correct picks over prioritizing picking the correct champ so my strategy usually revolves around that. So, not the kind where the points double each round.

However, the way I usually do this is to start by picking my final 4 and champ and then fill out the rest of the picks.

If you're trying to get the most correct picks. why are you trying to hit a "quota" of upsets? Just pick the best teams. You can't find the upsets. That's why they're upsets.

Because your picks get more accurate if you use historical data correctly. It's not about hitting a quota, it's about at the very least approaching a realistic number of upsets. I already know that a bracket with only 4 upsets is wrong.

I also consider the number crunching fun and am trying for the perfect bracket even though I know the odds.

I already know that your bracket is wrong too. Know why? Because it's impossible to predict a perfect bracket.

I'm happy winning my pools.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

Trying to guess the upsets is insane. Just pick chalk with one or two teams you believe may pull a surprise and you'll likely win. Even if there are 11-12 upsets a year, how the hell are you going to guess which ones they are?

Because Scoresman plays in a 32-team dynasty league with 53 man rosters and decimal yardage scoring. And he's in the money almost every year.Have fun in your cute little 8-team, TD-only office rec league, n00b.

Not sure when I pissed in your cheerios, but I only play in typical bracket pools, none of these complicated drafts you guys do here.

I was just busting your balls. No offense intended. Now that you've pulled back the curtain and we see you're looking at KenPom and Bracketscience and reacting to it instead of shticking it up like usual, your posts have been really interesting to read.

I'm skeptical how good the historical data is at predicting the future, but I do think your thought process of how you build your bracket is a useful read - I've learned a few things.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Finished my initial bracket run and realized I only had 4 upsets, and that isn't going to fly. In the modern era, there have been about 8-9 upsets per tournament and that number has jumped to about 11 upsets per year in the last four tournaments. Considering how everyone says there's more parity this year, I expect similar number of upsets.

- VCU/UCLA is such a key game and a tough one to predict. If VCU wins, I have a fair amount of confidence in them upsetting Florida in the Sweet 16.

-Memphis/George Washington is another key game for me and an absolute toss-up. I can see Memphis upsetting Virginia if they advance. Don't have the balls to pull the trigger yet.

- I don't like any 10 seeds to upset 7s in the first round this year which is unusual. Texas is the closest to being an upset candidate, however.

- The only 12 seed I have any confidence in is Harvard. ND State comes second, but not enough for me to pull the trigger... yet.

- I see one 6-11 upset and one "maybe". I like either Iowa or Tennessee over UMass (I like Tennessee more than Iowa, however). The "maybe" is Dayton over Ohio State. Dayton has all the signs of an upsetter, but Ohio State does not have the signs of a typical first round victim. Tough one because if Ohio State wins this as I currently have it, I have them going to the elite 8.

Does this bracket score more heavily for picking lower seeded teams?

The pools I enter typically reward making the most correct picks over prioritizing picking the correct champ so my strategy usually revolves around that. So, not the kind where the points double each round.

However, the way I usually do this is to start by picking my final 4 and champ and then fill out the rest of the picks.

If you're trying to get the most correct picks. why are you trying to hit a "quota" of upsets? Just pick the best teams. You can't find the upsets. That's why they're upsets.

Because your picks get more accurate if you use historical data correctly. It's not about hitting a quota, it's about at the very least approaching a realistic number of upsets. I already know that a bracket with only 4 upsets is wrong.

I also consider the number crunching fun and am trying for the perfect bracket even though I know the odds.

I already know that your bracket is wrong too. Know why? Because it's impossible to predict a perfect bracket.

I'm happy winning my pools.

 

[Premier]

I know waaaaaaay more about college basketball than anybody in any of my pools and I haven't won in 5 or 6 years.

It is literally all luck.

 

[Scoresman]

I know waaaaaaay more about college basketball than anybody in any of my pools and I haven't won in 5 or 6 years.

It is literally all luck.

Then maybe you don't know as much as you think.

Although, I have been in my share office pools where the office secretary or somebody's mom who thinks NCAA is a branch of the NAACP finishes in the money. Luck is certainly a factor.

 

[shuke]

I know waaaaaaay more about college basketball than anybody in any of my pools and I haven't won in 5 or 6 years.

It is literally all luck.

I've watched way less that last 3-4 years and I think I have done better than I used to. I kind of follow what Scoresman is doing, but without any stats. I go completely with my gut, knowing that most of the pools I am in award more points for correctly predicting upsets.

 

[Premier]

I know waaaaaaay more about college basketball than anybody in any of my pools and I haven't won in 5 or 6 years.

It is literally all luck.

Then maybe you don't know as much as you think.

My yearly bracket doesn't really define me, Scoresman.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Did I click on the Shark Pool by mistake?

 

[Scoresman]

What do people think of the Memphis vs. George Washington matchup?

 

[Dan Lambskin]

What do people think of the Memphis vs. George Washington matchup?

:fartnoise:

 

[sporthenry]

What do people think of the Memphis vs. George Washington matchup?

Memphis

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Memphis is more likely to win, but I only have three upsets in my bracket so far.

 

[Scoresman]

This makes me jizz

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

WSJ Blindfold Bracket

Pick the bracket without knowing the team names. Each matchup gives a basic profile of each team: offense, defense, rebounding, 3-point shooting, experience, hot streak... plus a couple notes on if the team is from a major conference, experienced coach, etc.

At the end, it shows you what bracket you picked.

 

[Scoresman]

WSJ Blindfold Bracket

Pick the bracket without knowing the team names. Each matchup gives a basic profile of each team: offense, defense, rebounding, 3-point shooting, experience, hot streak... plus a couple notes on if the team is from a major conference, experienced coach, etc.

At the end, it shows you what bracket you picked.

I got Florida over Wichita in the final. Biggest upsets were Gonzaga over Arizona and Providence over Iowa St. in round 2.

Don't read the brief descriptions, some of them totally give away the team.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

WSJ Blindfold Bracket

Pick the bracket without knowing the team names. Each matchup gives a basic profile of each team: offense, defense, rebounding, 3-point shooting, experience, hot streak... plus a couple notes on if the team is from a major conference, experienced coach, etc.

At the end, it shows you what bracket you picked.

I got Florida over Wichita in the final. Biggest upsets were Gonzaga over Arizona and Providence over Iowa St. in round 2.

Don't read the brief descriptions, some of them totally give away the team.

I managed to put all four 1-seeds in the Final Four, with Florida over Wichita State in the final.I picked SFA over VCU, an upset that was not on my radar at all.

Also had North Dakota State over OU, which I could see happening - OU pushes pace and can score, but doesn't guard anybody.

Only big second round upsets I had were Ohio State over Syracuse (think I gave defense more juice than offense in this exercise than I do when filling out brackets), and Oregon over Wisconsin, which I previously had not considered.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I got Florida over Wichita in the final.

Same. Actually got all 4 #1s in the F4.

 

[GDogg]

WSJ Blindfold Bracket

Pick the bracket without knowing the team names. Each matchup gives a basic profile of each team: offense, defense, rebounding, 3-point shooting, experience, hot streak... plus a couple notes on if the team is from a major conference, experienced coach, etc.

At the end, it shows you what bracket you picked.

I picked almost the exact same bracket as I did knowing the teams. I had a different champion doing it blind.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

WSJ Blindfold Bracket

Pick the bracket without knowing the team names. Each matchup gives a basic profile of each team: offense, defense, rebounding, 3-point shooting, experience, hot streak... plus a couple notes on if the team is from a major conference, experienced coach, etc.

At the end, it shows you what bracket you picked.

I got Florida over Wichita in the final. Biggest upsets were Gonzaga over Arizona and Providence over Iowa St. in round 2.

Don't read the brief descriptions, some of them totally give away the team.

Pretty fun. It gave me Wichita St over Michigan St in the final. Biggest upsets were Wofford over Michigan and Pitt over Florida. Also had New Mexico in the final 4.

 

[wazoo11]

VCU, Michigan State, Duke, Baylor

VCU over Duke

 

[ArbyMelt]

New Albany?

 

[Scoresman]

These are the upsets I "force-fed" into my warren buffet bracket.

Dayton over Ohio St.

NC State over St. Louis

New Mexico over Kansas

Providence over UNC

Kentucky over Wichita St.

Tennessee over UMass

Tennessee over Duke (pending tonight's game)

Tennessee over Michigan (pending tonight's game)

 

[sporthenry]

So if I'm in a pool with a bunch of UVA people, what do I do? Do I take UVA to the FF to have similar brackets and hope to beat them elsewhere? Do I take MSU over them and pretty much make/break my bracket on that game? Or take UVA to E8 and another team to the F4?

I like the 3rd option but the bottom half is pretty weak especially since I don't like Nova. Kinda nervous to take ISU to the F4.

 

[Scoresman]

So if I'm in a pool with a bunch of UVA people, what do I do? Do I take UVA to the FF to have similar brackets and hope to beat them elsewhere? Do I take MSU over them and pretty much make/break my bracket on that game? Or take UVA to E8 and another team to the F4?

I like the 3rd option but the bottom half is pretty weak especially since I don't like Nova. Kinda nervous to take ISU to the F4.

Do you know if they have UVA winning the whole thing? If so, I wouldn't worry too much.

If they only have them advancing to the final four, I'd go with MSU or Nova. Virginia is the weakest one seed and is likely to be upset, IMO.

 

[Dark Matter]

WSJ Blindfold Bracket

Pick the bracket without knowing the team names. Each matchup gives a basic profile of each team: offense, defense, rebounding, 3-point shooting, experience, hot streak... plus a couple notes on if the team is from a major conference, experienced coach, etc.

At the end, it shows you what bracket you picked.

New Mexico (Stephen F Austin over Florida)

Virginia

Arizona

Louisville over Virginia

 

[Scoresman]

What's the committee's logic for making Iowa and Tennessee play a play-in game? There are much worse at large teams that don't have to play the extra game. It should be the 4 worst at large teams, basically the bubble teams that made it in who should have to play the extra game.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

What's the committee's logic for making Iowa and Tennessee play a play-in game? There are much worse at large teams that don't have to play the extra game. It should be the 4 worst at large teams, basically the bubble teams that made it in who should have to play the extra game.

What at-large teams would be below those two?

 

[Premier]

The committee ranked the teams 1-68. Tennessee and Iowa were in the last 4 at-large.

 

[sporthenry]

What's the committee's logic for making Iowa and Tennessee play a play-in game? There are much worse at large teams that don't have to play the extra game. It should be the 4 worst at large teams, basically the bubble teams that made it in who should have to play the extra game.

Committee has them in the last 4. Seth Davis hypothesized that Tennessee wasn't actually there but they moved them there b/c they didn't want Dayton playing in Dayton.

 

[Scoresman]

What's the committee's logic for making Iowa and Tennessee play a play-in game? There are much worse at large teams that don't have to play the extra game. It should be the 4 worst at large teams, basically the bubble teams that made it in who should have to play the extra game.

What at-large teams would be below those two?

In terms of Tennessee, probably half the at large field. Tennessee is ranked 11th overall on kenpom and 25th on Sagarin. Doesn't seem right to make them play in round 1.

 

[Premier]

Tennessee lost 8 games in the ####ty, bumfuuuuuck SEC. They deserve what they got.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

11th seems a little ridiculous for a 12-loss team that got swept by TAMU.

Against the NCAA field they were 2 (UVa, Xavier) and 7 (Xavier, Wichita St., NC St., UK, UF x3). Unusual that they played Xavier twice.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

They (or Iowa) will be favorites against UMass.

 

[GDogg]

I have no problem with Iowa and Tennessee being in the play in game, in general, since they were at large teams, but what's the logic for Albany, Mt. St. Mary's, Cal Poly and Texas Southern? They were their conference tournament champions. They shouldn't have had to play in the play in game.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

What's the committee's logic for making Iowa and Tennessee play a play-in game? There are much worse at large teams that don't have to play the extra game. It should be the 4 worst at large teams, basically the bubble teams that made it in who should have to play the extra game.

What at-large teams would be below those two?

In terms of Tennessee, probably half the at large field. Tennessee is ranked 11th overall on kenpom and 25th on Sagarin. Doesn't seem right to make them play in round 1.

Blowing out Tennessee Tech, Tennessee State, and The Citadel impresses the #### out of KenPom and Sagarin, but doesn't mean a thing to the TSC.Tennessee beat Virginia by 35. That's worth like 6-7 wins in KenPom (rerun Tennessee's KenPom number with a 3-point win over UVA instead of 35 - they drop like a rock), but is only one game to the TSC.

Two wins over tournament teams. Three losses to RPI 100+, one at home. 10-12 seed range seems about right.

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

I have no problem with Iowa and Tennessee being in the play in game, in general, since they were at large teams, but what's the logic for Albany, Mt. St. Mary's, Cal Poly and Texas Southern? They were their conference tournament champions. They shouldn't have had to play in the play in game.

It was a compromise when the play-in game concept was developed. A four-region, 68-team bracket should have four 17-team regions seeded 1-17, with the 16/17 playing first for the right to play the 1-seed. The little conferences balked at the concept of pushing eight one-bid teams out of the 64 and playing an extra game early in the week to give the 1-seeds an even bigger advantage. So two of the play-in games were shifted to pit the last four at-large teams against each other.

 

[bagger]

Trying to guess the upsets is insane. Just pick chalk with one or two teams you believe may pull a surprise and you'll likely win. Even if there are 11-12 upsets a year, how the hell are you going to guess which ones they are?

well that's boring.I picked the 11 seed over u mass.

Asu is good for 1 win over tx.

BYU should beat Oregon.

Those ar the only double digits teams I have winning.

FL, MSU, Wisc, Duke my final 4.

FL over Wisc in finals.

I think u of a losing Brandon Ashley kills them when they run into Wisc otherwise would have had them in final 4.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

So if I'm in a pool with a bunch of UVA people, what do I do? Do I take UVA to the FF to have similar brackets and hope to beat them elsewhere? Do I take MSU over them and pretty much make/break my bracket on that game? Or take UVA to E8 and another team to the F4?

I like the 3rd option but the bottom half is pretty weak especially since I don't like Nova. Kinda nervous to take ISU to the F4.

I'd go with option (D): roll with whoever you think is going to win the East and the NC anyway, confident in your knowledge that 95% of UVA alums wouldn't dare jinx the ridiculous run that has been the 2014 season by relying on the Hoos to win their pool for them.

/opinion of a Wahoo who's got 'Nova in the F4 in all his pools