NE to go Undefeated (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

What is NE playoff record on the road?

What are the road playoff records for other teams? NE lost 3 times in DEN (where they ALWAYS have trouble playing) and once in IND. That makes them 4-4 under BB / TB and 2-3 in road AFCCG (losses in DEN twice and once in IND with wins in PIT and KC). Prior to last year, the home team had gone 10-0 the past five seasons in league championship games (with NE and LAR winning last season). Since the league went to 8 divisions and the current playoff format in 2002, home teams have won 67.4% of league championship game.

If your point was to say that playing in the AFC East helps NE's playoff seeding, what about all the other teams that played in divisions with poor teams (that I just outlined above)? My point was every year there are lousy teams all over the place, yet for some reason NE gets the benefit with playing easy teams in their division but no one else does? The AFC South was a hot mess several years when Manning played for IND. Were those teams that bad or was Manning that good? Why can't the same hold true for Brady? The Lions and Browns had years where they didn't win a game. There were several teams over the years in the same division that could barely win . . . yet the other two teams weren't in the Super Bowl every other season.

Put NE in any other division and they would win just as much. They've already shown that based on their record against other opponents. They struggle playing in MIA and DEN. With Brady playing, NE has won at least 3/4 of their games against 21 teams. Including playoff games, no team has a winning record against NE with Brady playing.

EDIT TO ADD . . . They probably have a losing record against DEN but have gone 7-6 in the regular season.

 

[Anarchy99]

You could say this about most (good) teams, including the Pats.

When Brady hasn't played, NE has gone 14-6 (.700). Maybe they would struggle with Brady out, but this year they have been winning without Brady being the main reason.

 

[humpback]

When Brady hasn't played, NE has gone 14-6 (.700). Maybe they would struggle with Brady out, but this year they have been winning without Brady being the main reason.

I don't consider 2008 to be very relevant, but Brady has the second most yards passing in the NFL this year. There's no doubt it would be a pretty huge drop off from Brady to Cody Kessler/Jarrett Stidham, especially now that they are finally playing some good teams.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

How do the defending Super Bowl Champions have such a soft schedule???

Because the schedule is mostly pre-determined (outside of two games) years in advance.

 

[Anarchy99]

I don't consider 2008 to be very relevant, but Brady has the second most yards passing in the NFL this year. There's no doubt it would be a pretty huge drop off from Brady to Cody Kessler/Jarrett Stidham, especially now that they are finally playing some good teams.

Prior to last night, the NE defense had a net positive in terms of points allowed, meaning they had scored more points than they had given up. Yes, things will be different moving forward, but NE could / should / would have had the same record heading into the BAL game if Brady had missed a month of the season (the lone possible exception being the BUF game).

 

[Anarchy99]

Now, how many of them were the same teams every year? I know you can kick the NFC south out of that equation. 
 

And no, if you put the Pats in any random division the NFC West, NFC South, AFC North, etc wouldn’t suddenly become the worst division in the NFL. 

Here is how NE has fared with TB against every other team on a winning % basis (including all post season games). My point was, if NE won at the same rate, the records of their opponents in any other division would take a dive (like those in the AFC East have over the years). Realistically, we have no idea how NE would have done if they played in a different division, but IMO, I think it would be a mistake to think they suddenly would lose way more games (as their winning % against the rest of the league is still exceptional).

AFC East	
BUF	.912
NYJ	.789
MIA	.674
	
AFC North	
CLE	.875
CIN	.857
PIT	.800
BAL	.667
	
AFC South	
HOU	.900
JAX	.889
IND	.789
TEN	.778
	
AFC West	
OAK	.833
LAC	.818
KCC	.700
DEN	.471
	
NFC East	
DAL	1.00
WAS	.800
PHI	.667
NYG	.571
	
NFC North	
CHI	1.00
MIN	1.00
DET	.667
GBP	.600
	
NFC South	
ATL	1.00
TBB	1.00
NOS	.800
CAR	.500
	
NFC West	
LAR	.833
SFO	.667
ARI	.500
SEA	.500

 

[Buckna]

So they've got left after the BYE:

Philly

Dallas

Houston

Kansas City

Cinci ( )

Buffalo

Miami ( )

Aside from the cakewalks against Cinci and Miami, the other 5 of those teams have winning records at the moment but they all have their flaws. I would take NE in every one of those as a betting man, but I can't imagine they run the table, especially those next four. If Buffalo can keep it together (they have Cleveland, Miami, Denver, Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh left) then week 16 may actually decide the division and someone has a shot outside of NE at the division title for the first time in a long time.

 

[humpback]

Prior to last night, the NE defense had a net positive in terms of points allowed, meaning they had scored more points than they had given up. Yes, things will be different moving forward, but NE could / should / would have had the same record heading into the BAL game if Brady had missed a month of the season (the lone possible exception being the BUF game).

There's absolutely no way of knowing for sure, we can't go back in time and replay the games with a different QB, but I think you're being overly optimistic. Part of the reason why their defense has been so "good" (besides the opponents) is because they've been put in a position to succeed- they're almost always playing with a lead, have a time of possession advantage, etc. No way of knowing if those things would have remained the same without Brady- Stidham is 2-4 for 14 yards and a pick six in his career. Likewise we have no idea how the Ravens would have fared with RGIII instead of Lamar.

In any event, I stand behind my comment- most teams with a good starting QB would be in trouble if they got injured. I don't think RGIII would be as dynamic as Lamar, but I also don't think the drop off would be as huge as you seem to believe either. 

 

[Anarchy99]

So they've got left after the BYE:

Philly

Dallas

Houston

Kansas City

Cinci ( )

Buffalo

Miami ( )

Aside from the cakewalks against Cinci and Miami, the other 5 of those teams have winning records at the moment but they all have their flaws. I would take NE in every one of those as a betting man, but I can't imagine they run the table, especially those next four. If Buffalo can keep it together (they have Cleveland, Miami, Denver, Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh left) then week 16 may actually decide the division and someone has a shot outside of NE at the division title for the first time in a long time.

BUF has a stretch at DAL, BAL, at NE, at PIT. Maybe I will be in the minority, but I don't see BUF coming out of those games in position to challenge NE for the division title.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

So they've got left after the BYE:

Philly

Dallas

Houston

Kansas City

Cinci ( )

Buffalo

Miami ( )

Aside from the cakewalks against Cinci and Miami, the other 5 of those teams have winning records at the moment but they all have their flaws. I would take NE in every one of those as a betting man, but I can't imagine they run the table, especially those next four. If Buffalo can keep it together (they have Cleveland, Miami, Denver, Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh left) then week 16 may actually decide the division and someone has a shot outside of NE at the division title for the first time in a long time.

Buffalo is not challenging NE for the division.  IMO they're only 50-50 to make the playoffs.

 

[Anarchy99]

Buffalo is not challenging NE for the division.  IMO they're only 50-50 to make the playoffs.

I think you are understating the Bills chances of making the playoffs. They are 6-2 and 9 wins should get them in (unless you think there will be multiple 10 win wildcard teams). 
They have CLE, MIA, DEN, DAL, BAL, PIT, NE, NYJ left on their schedule. They should get at least 3 wins out of that. IMO, it would be much more of a surprise if they didn't get a wildcard. 538 has them at 69% to make the playoffs. Here's their current AFC playoff breakdown in terms of chances of making the playoffs . . .

NE 99%+ (13-3)
BAL 94% (11-5)
KC 88% (11-5)
HOU 84% (10-6)
BUF 69% (10-6)
IND 53% (9-7)
PIT 38% (8-8)
OAK 27% (8-8)
JAX 17% (8-8)
LAC 14% (7-9)
CLE 9% (6-10)
TEN 7% (7-9)

 

[Long Ball Larry]

There's absolutely no way of knowing for sure, we can't go back in time and replay the games with a different QB, but I think you're being overly optimistic. Part of the reason why their defense has been so "good" (besides the opponents) is because they've been put in a position to succeed- they're almost always playing with a lead, have a time of possession advantage, etc. No way of knowing if those things would have remained the same without Brady- Stidham is 2-4 for 14 yards and a pick six in his career. Likewise we have no idea how the Ravens would have fared with RGIII instead of Lamar.

In any event, I stand behind my comment- most teams with a good starting QB would be in trouble if they got injured. I don't think RGIII would be as dynamic as Lamar, but I also don't think the drop off would be as huge as you seem to believe either. 

it would be pretty fascinating to see rgIII get in for a few games in this offense.

 

[Henry Ford]

Here is how NE has fared with TB against every other team on a winning % basis (including all post season games). My point was, if NE won at the same rate, the records of their opponents in any other division would take a dive (like those in the AFC East have over the years). Realistically, we have no idea how NE would have done if they played in a different division, but IMO, I think it would be a mistake to think they suddenly would lose way more games (as their winning % against the rest of the league is still exceptional).

AFC East
BUF .912
NYJ .789
MIA .674

AFC North
CLE .875
CIN .857
PIT .800
BAL .667

AFC South
HOU .900
JAX .889
IND .789
TEN .778

AFC West
OAK .833
LAC .818
KCC .700
DEN .471

NFC East
DAL 1.00
WAS .800
PHI .667
NYG .571

NFC North
CHI 1.00
MIN 1.00
DET .667
GBP .600

NFC South
ATL 1.00
TBB 1.00
NOS .800
CAR .500

NFC West
LAR .833
SFO .667
ARI .500
SEA .500

It's fun to think of the "what if" scenarios, but realistically you shouldn't have a significantly better win percentage against teams you play 2x per year every year.  They know you.  They don't just have tape on you, they've played you, including some players who have played you more than some of your own defensive players who play against you in practice.  These teams aren't playing in a Madden simulation, they're playing with their collective knowledge of the other team.

That's why it's so clear that the AFC East is so bad.  Because they keep turning over personnel every year, first of all, including coaches, but also the ones who stick around for a few years still aren't getting better against the teams they play so often.

Despite playing against them twice a year forever, the Pats have a .791 win percentage against their own division with Tom Brady over a period of almost two decades.  That's kind of ridiculous.  Yes, the Pats are a great team that play great football, but still.  It's ridiculous.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Despite playing against them twice a year forever, the Pats have a .791 win percentage against their own division with Tom Brady over a period of almost two decades.  That's kind of ridiculous.  Yes, the Pats are a great team that play great football, but still.  It's ridiculous.

Would you like to take a guess as to who is the winningest QB in Buffalo since 2001?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Would you like to take a guess as to who is the winningest QB in Buffalo since 2001?

Nathan Peterman?

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Props to BAL on beating NE, but IMO they are literally as good as Jackson is healthy. 

As others have pointed out, that's true of most teams with good QBs, but I also think you are underselling BAL's ability to run, and their D, which started the year shakier but are clearly on the upswing.

I think you are understating the Bills chances of making the playoffs.

Agree with this take as well -- and not sure how @IvanKaramazov doesn't see this -- Bills are 6-2 with Colts going through a tough time with Brissett out of last game and a bunch of variable 500 or below teams.

At this point I think they have the best shot out of the rest of the AFC to secure the 5th seed, let alone the 6th.

Chargers could turn it around, Raiders could challenge, Pittsburgh might as well. We'll see what happens with JAX when Foles returns. But I see them all battling for 6th seed at this point.

 

[Tanner9919]

so can we put away the anointing oils now or what?!? you mean the undefeated season won't happen for BB? what? bbut bbut  I thought this was the greatest team in the history of great teams. what happened?!  they got spanked you say? taken behind the woodshed? 

so 100 years of history didn't matter, that only once had a team gone undefeated..? hate to say we told you so, but...

surprised that some haven't called this a 'generational' team ya know how people like to throw that 'generational' term around so loosely these days.   

or is it a joystick defense? that's another catch phrase people love.

 

[themitch]

Would you like to take a guess as to who is the winningest QB in Buffalo since 2001?

Tom Brady

 

[Anarchy99]

so can we put away the anointing oils now or what?!? you mean the undefeated season won't happen for BB? what? bbut bbut  I thought this was the greatest team in the history of great teams. what happened?!  they got spanked you say? taken behind the woodshed? 

so 100 years of history didn't matter, that only once had a team gone undefeated..? hate to say we told you so, but...

surprised that some haven't called this a 'generational' team ya know how people like to throw that 'generational' term around so loosely these days.   

or is it a joystick defense? that's another catch phrase people love.

We won’t know if they are a generational defense for quite some time. I already posted about how the other generational defenses had games where they allowed 37 points to lousy teams, gave up almost 500 yards passing to Vinny Testaverde, allowed almost 300 receiving yards to Jimmy Smith, or allowed 150+ rushing yards to RB’s that few people have heard of. 

 

[JohnnyU]

Because the schedule is mostly pre-determined (outside of two games) years in advance.

Don’t you think that is kind of ridiculous?  I distinctly remember in the 70s and perhaps later, the better you did one year resulted in a harder schedule the next year. 

 

[Arodin]

Don’t you think that is kind of ridiculou?  I distinctly remember in the 70s and perhaps later, the better you did one year resulted in a harder schedule the next year. 

Welcome to the 21st century, Mr. Van Winkle!  

Those schedules changed back when the Houston Texans came into existence and the league realigned to 4 divisions.  At that point the rotating scheduling of out-of-division and cross-conference games meant 14 opponents were predetermined to any arbitrary point in the future.

Only 2 games per year are affected by division finish, and pair with one team in each of only two other divisions.  One fluke division champ that regresses and random chance can give a first place team a soft schedule.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Don’t you think that is kind of ridiculous?  I distinctly remember in the 70s and perhaps later, the better you did one year resulted in a harder schedule the next year. 

1st place team vs.  2 first place teams in your conference is as far as they carry it.  Still way better than collage where you determine your own bye weeks and non conference schedule.

 

[JohnnyU]

1st place team vs.  2 first place teams in your conference is as far as they carry it.  Still way better than collage where you determine your own bye weeks and non conference schedule.

I don’t think it was that way in the 70s.  Perhaps now the put the schedule out into the future more years for financial reasons.

 

[Henry Ford]

Would you like to take a guess as to who is the winningest QB in Buffalo since 2001?

I don’t believe that’s necessary. Might as well ask who the winningest QB is in Chicago since whenever Aaron Rodgers took over. 

 

[Dizzy]

hate to say we told you so, but...

Right, because the Shark Pool could use more of this

 

[Doug B]

Don’t you think that is kind of ridiculous?  I distinctly remember in the 70s and perhaps later, the better you did one year resulted in a harder schedule the next year. 

Kind of, but not really. First-place teams played the other first-place teams in their conference — but also the fourth-place teams. Second- and third-place squads, in conference, also played each other.

The real plum was finishing fifth in the five-team divisions. You got a home-and-home against the other fifth-place team in your conference, and a game against both of the other conference’s fifth-place squads. 

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Did we see a clip of Csonka, Mercury Morris, and the rest of those undefeated 72 Fins schmucks pop champagne corks yet with this NE defeat?

I give that 72 team all the credit in the world.  But that ceremony always rubbed me as classless.

It's such an extraordinary feat and one that isn't likely to be repeated -- they should simply let it stand on its own merit, rather than celebrating other teams' losses.

 

[Arodin]

Did we see a clip of Csonka, Mercury Morris, and the rest of those undefeated 72 Fins schmucks pop champagne corks yet with this NE defeat?

I give that 72 team all the credit in the world.  But that ceremony always rubbed me as classless.

It's such an extraordinary feat and one that isn't likely to be repeated -- they should simply let it stand on its own merit, rather than celebrating other teams' losses.

Don’t they need the 49ers to lose one first?

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Don’t they need the 49ers to lose one first?

Good point, yes, but I wouldn't put it past them to celebrate every contending team's loss.