Need Some Help On Analysis (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

I have been working on an article exploring the impact of teams drafting a lineman in the first round of the NFL draft as it pertains to fantasy production. Cutting to the chase, here were the main results:

Of the 16 teams that took OL help in the Top 10 picks in the salary cap era (1994-2007), all 16 teams realized an increase in total team fantasy production (looking just at passing and running totals combined).

Of the 45 teams that took OL help in the 11-32 picks in that same timeframe, 18 teams saw their cumulative fantasy scoring go up (team passing and team rushing combined) . . . meaning 27 teams saw their total go down.

Here were the other key metrics . . .

Average of the Top 10 Picks

Passing Yards +393

Passing TD +4.4

Y/A +0.5

Passing Fantasy Points +46.3

Rushing Yards +174.1

Rushing TD +3.2

YPC +0.2

Rushing Fantsy Points +36.8

Passing + Rushing Fantasy Points +82.8

Average of the Non-Top 10 picks:

Passing Yards -32.5

Passing TD -1.2

Y/A -0.1

Passing Fantasy Points -8.8

Rushing Yards -58.7

Rushing TD -0.2

Rushing YPC -0.1

Rushing Fantasy Points -7.2

Passing + Rushing Fantasy Points -16

I am curious as to why there is SUCH a dramatic difference. Were the Top 10 picks clearly that much better that they had a far greater impact? Were the Top 10 picks on teams that were so bad the year before that they were bound to do better anyway? Were the Non-Top 10 pick teams that much better that they were due to fall off some regardless? (I realize that there are a ton of other factors that may have impacted the results even greater than the new OL help, but for this exercise I did not try to factor that in.)

Given that there were 8 offensive linemen drafted in the first round this year, all this could have some relevance . . .

 

[Chase Stuart]

Were the Top 10 picks on teams that were so bad the year before that they were bound to do better anyway? Were the Non-Top 10 pick teams that much better that they were due to fall off some regardless?

I'd suspect that was the reason.How much work would it be for you to create a default group of teams that had a bottom 10 record but didn't add a top OL?And while I'm not sure how often it happened, if at all, you might want to treat differently those teams who traded in to the top 10 to grab a OL.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Rk	  Year   Rnd	 Pick						   Pos	Tm	  From	 To	  AP1	PB	 St	G	  College/Univ1	  2007	 1	  3	 Joe Thomas				T	 CLE	 2007	 2007	 0	  1	  1	16	 Wisconsin2	  2007	 1	  5	 Levi Brown				T	 ARI	 2007	 2007	 0	  0	  1	13	 Penn State3	  2006	 1	  4	 D'Brickashaw Ferguson	 T	 NYJ	 2006	 2007	 0	  0	  2	32	 Virginia4	  2004	 1	  2	 Robert Gallery			T	 OAK	 2004	 2007	 0	  0	  4	58	 Iowa5	  2003	 1	  8	 Jordan Gross			  T	 CAR	 2003	 2007	 0	  0	  5	80	 Utah6	  2002	 1	  4	 Mike D. Williams		  T	 BUF	 2002	 2005	 0	  0	  3	51	 Texas7	  2002	 1	  7	 Bryant McKinnie		   T	 MIN	 2002	 2007	 0	  0	  6	88	 Miami (FL)8	  2002	 1	 10	 Levi Jones				T	 CIN	 2002	 2007	 0	  0	  5	84	 Arizona State9	  2001	 1	  2	 Leonard Davis			 T	 ARI	 2001	 2007	 0	  1	  7   107	 Texas10	 2000	 1	  3	 Chris Samuels			 T	 WAS	 2000	 2007	 0	  5	  8   124	 Alabama11	 1998	 1	  7	 Kyle Turley			   T	 NOR	 1998	 2007	 1	  0	  6   109	 San Diego State12	 1997	 1	  1	 Orlando Pace			  T	 STL	 1997	 2007	 3	  7	 10   144	 Ohio State13	 1997	 1	  6	 Walter Jones			  T	 SEA	 1997	 2007	 4	  8	 11   168	 Florida State14	 1997	 1	 10	 Chris Naeole			  G	 NOR	 1997	 2007	 0	  0	  9   154	 Colorado15	 1996	 1	  4	 Jonathan Ogden			T	 BAL	 1996	 2007	 4	 11	 12   177	 UCLA16	 1996	 1	 10	 Willie Anderson		   T	 CIN	 1996	 2007	 3	  4	 11   181	 Auburn17	 1995	 1	  2	 Tony Boselli			  T	 JAX	 1995	 2001	 3	  5	  6	91	 USC

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Miami certainly would be one of those teams. I think they will be much better at throwing the ball and McCown will be almost undrafted in most leagues, yet I think he will produce for at least the 1st half of the season.

The problem with the Dolphins running game is Ronnie Brown is coming off a big injury and will likely be well off the pace of a year ago. And Ricky Williams took 1 hand off last season and was out the rest of the year. I think people will fall asleep on the rookie Parmele but it won't surprise me if that guy ends up getting into the mix by about week 6-7 and possibly becomes a "sleeper" the 2nd half of the season.

 

[Modog814]

My guess is this:

A) The teams picking in the top 10 are "bad" teams. And the game of football really begins on the line and the reason these teams are bad is generally b/c they don't win the line battles. Combine this with Top 10 OL are more ready to step into the lineup and produce.

B) Teams picking outside the top 10 probably have a OL that range from decent (wins their fair share of line battles) to dominate. These teams have less room for improvement.

That said, the non-top10 stats look to me like just normal variance, while it'd be hard to argue that for the top10 picks. What would happen if you broke it down to top 10, 11-20, and 20&up? Would the decline be more gradual?

 

[BassNBrew]

Just a theory but teams picking in the top 10 are often there due to injury issues with the team. Teams that draft a OL in the top 10 are probably more likely comfortable with their skill position players and expect them to rebound.

 

[Bri]

I 'd be curious if teams tend to also add a veteran the same year as their top pick OL.

 

[puckalicious]

This study definitely needs a control group of teams that did not add a OL. As Chase mentioned, compare the stats of the top 10 draft teams that picked a OL to the top 10 draft teams that did NOT pick a OL. That will be the true measure of the impact of adding a top 10 OL.

 

[AnonymousBob]

This has potential.

 

[dgreen]

This study definitely needs a control group of teams that did not add a OL. As Chase mentioned, compare the stats of the top 10 draft teams that picked a OL to the top 10 draft teams that did NOT pick a OL. That will be the true measure of the impact of adding a top 10 OL.

My first thought was, "Well, maybe teams picking OL in the top 10 increase offensive production so much because most teams picking in the top 10 increase so much." The only position that may not measure up is QB; if that QB actually plays his rookie year. Other than QB, most top 10 picks are "NFL Ready" in their first year, so they are likely to have a positive impact on a team that could only go up from last year.