New "Draft Trade Chart" (1 Viewer)

[Andy Herron]

This was just posted on PFT by Mike Florio. Doesn't give any reference as to where it came from or how official or accurate it is.

Didn't transfer well. I tried to spread it out some.

1st Rd   2nd Rd  3rd Rd   4th Rd	5th Rd	6th Rd	 7th Rd 1 2,000  33 570  65 265   97 112   129 43   161 27	 193 14.2 2 1,900  34 560  66 260   98 108   130 42   162 26.6   194 13.8 3 1,825  35 550  67 255   99 104   131 41   163 26.2   195 13.4 4 1,750  36 540  68 250   100 100 132 40   164 25.8   196 13 5 1,675  37 530  69 245   101 96   133 39.5 165 25.4  197 12.6 6 1,635  38 520  70 240   102 92   134 39   166 25	  198 12.2 7 1,570  39 510  71 235   103 88   135 38.5 167 24.6  199 11.8 8 1,505  40 500  72 230   104 86   136 38	168 24.2  200 11.4 9 1,440  41 490  73 225   105 84   137 37.5 169 23.8  201 11 10 1,375 42 480  74 220   106 82  138 37	170 23.4  202 10.6 11 1,320 43 470  75 215   107 80  139 36.5 171 23	 203 10.2 12 1,275 44 460  76 210   108 78  140 36	172 22.6  204 9.8 13 1,230 45 450  77 205   109 76  141 35.5 173 22.2  205 9.4 14 1,185 46 440  78 200   110 74  142 35	174 21.8  206 9 15 1,140 47 430  79 195   111 72  143 34.5 175 21.4  207 8.6 16 1,110 48 420  80 190   112 70  144 34	176 21	 208 8.2 17 1,070 49 410  81 185   113 68  145 33.5 177 20.6  209 7.8 18 1,040 50 400  82 180   114 66  146 33	178 20.2  210 7.4 19 1,010 51 390  83 175   115 64  147 32.6 179 19.8  211 7 20  980   52 380  84 170   116 62  148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6 21  945   53 370  85 165   117 60  149 31.8 181 19	213 6.2 22  920   54 360  86 160   118 58  150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8 23  895   55 350  87 155   119 56  151 31	183 18.2 215 5.4 24  870   56 340  88 150   120 54  152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5 25  845   57 330  89 145   121 52  153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6 26  820   58 320  90 140   122 50  154 29.8 186 17	218 4.2 27  795   59 310  91 136   123 49  155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8 28  770   60 300  92 132   124 48  156 29	188 16.2 220 3.4 29  745   61 292  93 128   125 47  157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3 30  720   62 284  94 124   126 46  158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6 31  695   63 276  95 120   127 45  159 27.8 191 15	223 2.3 32  670   64 270  96 116   128 44  160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2

 

[Andy Herron]

Ah, they all got jammed together again.

http://www.profootballtalk.com/2008/04/15/...ft-trade-chart/

 

[zadok]

It's just Florio's proposal.

 

[notdarkyet]

Yep, just came up with it himself. No real merit.

 

[Andy Herron]

Well, wait a minute. There's more:

A couple of weeks ago, we(PFT) developed a revised trade chart for valuing draft picks. We’ve since caught wind of a new chart that has been developed by and among multiple teams, and that could be put in use as soon as this year.

In contrast to the current trade chart(below), the new chart has very different values for the picks in round one. At the top, the points are compressed. The first pick was worth 3,000; it’s now down to 2,000. However, the sixth pick is worth more under the new chart than it was under the prior version. Each remaining pick, from No. 7 to No. 32, is worth more as well, with the last pick in the round now worth 670, up from 590.

The only difference in round two is that the first pick in the round is worth 570 under the new chart. It previously had a value of 580. The values for all picks in rounds three through seven are unchanged.

The chart has been revised due to the dramatic increases in the contracts paid to the first few players selected in the draft. The financial investment required when exercising such a high pick necessarily has reduced the total value of these picks, necessitating a reduction in the total perceived trade value of the top selections.

The apparent reason for the 100-point gap between the bottom of round one and the top of round two is that the last player drafted in round one can be signed to a five-year deal. At the top of round two, the maximum duration is four years.

Under that theory, however, the difference between picks No. 16 and No. 17 should be more than 40 points, since the maximum contract length at the top half of round one is six years.

It remains to be seen whether the new chart becomes widely used by NFL teams. It’s clearly an improvement, however, over the outdated chart that was developed in the 1990s.

1st Rd 2nd Rd 3rd Rd 4th Rd 5th Rd 6th Rd 7th Rd

1 3,000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2

2 2,600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8

3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4

4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13

5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6

6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2

7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8

8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4

9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11

10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6

11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2

12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8

13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4

14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9

15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6

16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2

17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8

18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4

19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7

20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6

21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2

22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8

23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4

24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5

25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6

26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2

27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8

28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4

29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3

30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6

31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3

32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2

 

[Bri]

On the one NFL GMs are using, the gap from 1st to 5th or 1st to 7th is enormous. For the sake of discussion, assume 1st is 3500 while 5th is 2000, 6th is 1900, 7th is 1800 etc.

I saw a few articles on the values(words but no chart) if you feel like googling.

 

[Bri]

Yeah post 5 looks right, post 1...not so much

looks like you've got the right one in 5 Andy

 

[Bri]

BLOOOOOOOOM,

Can you dissect some info from the chart?

IE At this point there's this player, that player, and the other player all of similar value so it's only 20 points separating them. This gap is probably going from player X to....etc?

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Honestly I dont see much point in the chart except as a starting point for working out a deal - Every team is going to have different buckets at each position because of their schemes/what they value in players, and teams are going to feel different senses of urgency to get deals done based on needs/FO and coaches in a make or break year and so on. What is next year's first worth? What are players worth?

If I worked in a team's war room, i would probably assign point values to players, not picks, and let that dictate when to make a trade. If we can get our #7 player at #13, it doesnt make sense to give that team the #7 value for that pick, because hey, its 13, but it also doesnt make sense to not pull the trigger because they want something closer to the value for #10 or 11.

Let's take DRC for instance. If my DB coach tells me, after watching and meeting with this kid, I feel confident we can make him an all-pro by correcting X Y and Z and he does what we ask CBs to do in our defense better than any CB in the draft, and therefore we put him at #7 on our board, ill overpay for the #13 pick to get him...

 

[Moniker]

Until there is a chart which doesn't grossly overestimate the value of the early picks, the chart is worthless and most teams who trade down will look like the "winners" in a trade every time.

 

[Couch Potato]

It's about time the NFL finally started learning from the FF community and got its pick value chart in line.

 

[Idiot Boxer]

ESPN The Magazine did the same thing.

 

[Andy Herron]

Heard something pertaining to this on ESPN radio yesterday in an interview with somebody that knew Joe Banner of the Eagles. Sorry, I only heard a portion of it and didn't catch the name. He couldn't confirm anything, but seemed to have his suspicions. In any case, from PFT:

NEW TRADE CHART AN EFFORT BY EAGLES TO MOVE UP?

Posted by Mike Florio on April 18, 2008, 9:34 p.m.

In response to the emergence of a new proposed trade chart, a league source tells us that, in his opinion and based on discussions with most of the other NFL teams, the proposal is the direct result of the Philadelphia Eagles to make it easier to trade up from the No. 19 overall spot in the 2008 draft.

“The whole thing sounds like an elaborate ruse,” the source said.

It’s not clear who the Eagles would be targeting via a move, or how high they’d like to go. If the Eagles are indeed behind the creation of the new chart, the fact that the first four picks dropped in value and the rest of the first-rounders increased suggests that they’d like to get into the top four — and possibly all the way to No. 1.

Moreover, if the Eagles are trying to pull off a move up, there’s only one other team that needs to agree with the chart, and that’s the team with whom the Eagles would be trading.

Besides, the reality is that, if a team that wants to trade down can’t find a partner under the existing trade chart, then maybe a new chart really is needed.

Or why shouldn’t both teams say “the hell with the chart,” if they so choose? The pick is worth whatever the team who’ll trade it thinks it worth. Does anyone really think that the Tuna gives a flying fish about whether he’ll be criticized from taking less than what the Jimmy Johnson trade chart dictates he should receive?

Regardless, the suspicion that is being directed at the Eagles confirms our belief that any meaningful change to the trade chart can come only after the draft and before the start of the regular season, since during that period of time no team can be accused of trying to stack the deck in support of its own short-term interests.

 

[massraider]

The obvious answer to me, is that any new chart gains credibility the first time someone uses it.

The first time a team bites the bullet, and agrees to move down, while taking a perceived lowball offer, the dominos will fall, and the precedent will be set. It'll take a strong team, that can withstand the complaints from fans and media that run to the value chart, to decide who "won" the trade.

I think it'll eventually happen, I just don't know if the situation will be right this year. The team that jumps out as me is Kansas City. If their top choices aren't available, it may make sense for them to move down, grab a 2nd or 3rd, and get a player they still like, and save some money.

 

[Bri]

The obvious answer to me, is that any new chart gains credibility the first time someone uses it.

The first time a team bites the bullet, and agrees to move down, while taking a perceived lowball offer, the dominos will fall, and the precedent will be set. It'll take a strong team, that can withstand the complaints from fans and media that run to the value chart, to decide who "won" the trade.

I think it'll eventually happen, I just don't know if the situation will be right this year. The team that jumps out as me is Kansas City. If their top choices aren't available, it may make sense for them to move down, grab a 2nd or 3rd, and get a player they still like, and save some money.

I don't agree that this is new this year. I can't find it googling but I think it was used before. That's nitpicky so....The first round is setup for value how whomever thinks it is. There are some special players at the top so OK they're ranked higher. Like FF though, you pretty much expect quality in the first, it's after that that the separation in draft ability/rankings becomes apparent. That chart shows precious little difference between the picks in each of rounds 2 thru 7. I think a chart would need to to be effective.

It might not be obvious from the posted part but they're from 3k to 590 at pick 32 and still have 7 rounds to chip away at 590. For example-Top pick in round 2 has considerable value due to some players falling out of round 1. The end of round 2 not as much. I don't get that impression looking at the chart.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Looks like I have another chart to fold into the Dynasty Calculator for comparison.

 

[coolnerd]

The obvious answer to me, is that any new chart gains credibility the first time someone uses it.

The first time a team bites the bullet, and agrees to move down, while taking a perceived lowball offer, the dominos will fall, and the precedent will be set. It'll take a strong team, that can withstand the complaints from fans and media that run to the value chart, to decide who "won" the trade.

I think it'll eventually happen, I just don't know if the situation will be right this year. The team that jumps out as me is Kansas City. If their top choices aren't available, it may make sense for them to move down, grab a 2nd or 3rd, and get a player they still like, and save some money.

I don't agree that this is new this year. I can't find it googling but I think it was used before. That's nitpicky so....The first round is setup for value how whomever thinks it is. There are some special players at the top so OK they're ranked higher. Like FF though, you pretty much expect quality in the first, it's after that that the separation in draft ability/rankings becomes apparent. That chart shows precious little difference between the picks in each of rounds 2 thru 7. I think a chart would need to to be effective.

It might not be obvious from the posted part but they're from 3k to 590 at pick 32 and still have 7 rounds to chip away at 590. For example-Top pick in round 2 has considerable value due to some players falling out of round 1. The end of round 2 not as much. I don't get that impression looking at the chart.

The main advantages to any chart are 1)Speed- someone is able to quickly plug in some values (no matter how artifical) and get a general sense of the value, which is the other reason to use it. Especially with a shorter time limit in the first to rounds, teams don't really have time to auction and get the most value, but so a version of "fair" value has to be put in place.

2) General sense of value- how much does a 6th round pick allow you to move up or down in draft? or if I trade a 4th what should I get back? In my mind it is sort like a blue book value for used cars. It works fine if both parties agree to it.

As long as some chart is an accepted authority, it makes for a quick and easy transactions even if the chart is flawed or if either party could have done better w/o using the chart. If you look at the draft tranactions over the past few years most of them come fairly close the chart value. The only area where there seem to any mention of correcting the chart is in the top half of the first round. In other words, while it seems like 590 to 1 is too small a drop off, it reflects some representation of how the NFL actually values those picks or there would be sweeping changes to the entire chart.