pinkstapler
Footballguy
Thanks for posting this. It seems like a large portion of people don't realize while the kickoff changes are "new" to the NFL, they aren't really new. The XFL was doing this already. In fact, IMO, they were doing it even better, but upon stealing the idea the NFL tweaked a few things that didn't need tweaking and likely made it worse again (go figure lol). But yeah, they gathered tons and tons of data not only on the decrease of injuries doing kickoff this way, but driving towards making the play more important and more exciting, rewarding teams who don't just take a touchback or fair catch.Some good insight from Eric Galko who was on the team that created, tested, and developed the now New NFL Kickoff. Found these things quite useful, especially from a fantasy standpoint if you get return TD points and are wondering how to adjust for your draft.
1. Overall Play Designs: The kickoff play isn’t going to be run like a previous kickoff. They'll be less value on collisions, quickness and explosiveness.Instead, it’ll likely be more closely analogous to a spaced out run play. You might even see Special Teams coaches develop into Man vs. Zone type distinctions. You'll see players pull, plays like Power/Duo, now on kickoff return! This will lead to a higher value on TE/FB-type run blocking value on return, and LB/SAF block shedding value on kickoff. Should help athlete TEs who can block (like Tip Reiman) and undersized LBs/Big Safeties (like Tyler Owens) be even more valuable now.
2. Returner Evaluations: Similar to above, returner value will be less about top end speed and burst, and more about vision and reacting. In short, more "running back attacking the hole"-type will be more valuable than vs. "receivers navigating in the open field" types. We at the XFL saw the teams with the most success had decisive, one-cut players rather than their fastest guys back there.Don’t be surprised if we see more RBs (or those with RB backgrounds) get more opportunities as returners, and for those returners to be a bit based on which “kick scheme” the team runs (man vs. zone).We could even see bigger athletic RBs (like Isaac Guerendo), be not only potential returners, but coveted options.
3. Roster Construction: For the last 5+ years, a "core special teamer" primarily meant a standout on just punt and punt return team, which amplified just gunners and returners in a big way.Now, the new NFL Kickoff heavily incentivizes every return to be a live play. That puts in 10+ more plays into real action again, and one that requires a defined skill set. That’s HUGE. Don’t be surprised if teams adjust how many at each position they carry. Carrying a 5th Tight Ends, a 78th/8th Linebackers and/or a 5th/6th Safety may be common place.
4. Learning Curve: At the XFL (2020 edition), we felt confident we’d see not only a lot of returners (as we and now the NFL rule heavily incentivizes a play happening), but a lot of big plays.But it took time for our coaches and players to be comfortable and creative, as well as address the reduced space initially.The old NFL kickoff had big lanes initially that closed up with good coverage. This new kickoffs will have more narrow lanes, but a much greater opportunity to turn those lanes into big plays and touchdowns.It may just take until the second half of the NFL season for it to happen. But when it does, don't be surprised if we see a MAJOR uptick in return touchdowns.
Inventive/creative teams will without a doubt take advantage of this and I would just about guarantee we'll see at least one game next season won primarily because of these changes. With the kickoff team lining up within yards of the return team, I think we'll see more premiere athletic players doing returns as the injury risk is driven down a lot. The one that jumps out to me would be having Tyreek Hill going back to returning kickoffs. Also, probably the only positive tweak the NFL made over the XFL, having multiple returners eligible could lead to some really exciting reverses and laterals/tosses in designed return plays. It was something I was wishing the NFL would steal for years now.