New Kickoff Rules (1 Viewer)

[pinkstapler]

Some good insight from Eric Galko who was on the team that created, tested, and developed the now New NFL Kickoff. Found these things quite useful, especially from a fantasy standpoint if you get return TD points and are wondering how to adjust for your draft.

1. Overall Play Designs: The kickoff play isn’t going to be run like a previous kickoff. They'll be less value on collisions, quickness and explosiveness.Instead, it’ll likely be more closely analogous to a spaced out run play. You might even see Special Teams coaches develop into Man vs. Zone type distinctions. You'll see players pull, plays like Power/Duo, now on kickoff return! This will lead to a higher value on TE/FB-type run blocking value on return, and LB/SAF block shedding value on kickoff. Should help athlete TEs who can block (like Tip Reiman) and undersized LBs/Big Safeties (like Tyler Owens) be even more valuable now.

2. Returner Evaluations: Similar to above, returner value will be less about top end speed and burst, and more about vision and reacting. In short, more "running back attacking the hole"-type will be more valuable than vs. "receivers navigating in the open field" types. We at the XFL saw the teams with the most success had decisive, one-cut players rather than their fastest guys back there.Don’t be surprised if we see more RBs (or those with RB backgrounds) get more opportunities as returners, and for those returners to be a bit based on which “kick scheme” the team runs (man vs. zone).We could even see bigger athletic RBs (like Isaac Guerendo), be not only potential returners, but coveted options.

3. Roster Construction: For the last 5+ years, a "core special teamer" primarily meant a standout on just punt and punt return team, which amplified just gunners and returners in a big way.Now, the new NFL Kickoff heavily incentivizes every return to be a live play. That puts in 10+ more plays into real action again, and one that requires a defined skill set. That’s HUGE. Don’t be surprised if teams adjust how many at each position they carry. Carrying a 5th Tight Ends, a 78th/8th Linebackers and/or a 5th/6th Safety may be common place.

4. Learning Curve: At the XFL (2020 edition), we felt confident we’d see not only a lot of returners (as we and now the NFL rule heavily incentivizes a play happening), but a lot of big plays.But it took time for our coaches and players to be comfortable and creative, as well as address the reduced space initially.The old NFL kickoff had big lanes initially that closed up with good coverage. This new kickoffs will have more narrow lanes, but a much greater opportunity to turn those lanes into big plays and touchdowns.It may just take until the second half of the NFL season for it to happen. But when it does, don't be surprised if we see a MAJOR uptick in return touchdowns.

Thanks for posting this. It seems like a large portion of people don't realize while the kickoff changes are "new" to the NFL, they aren't really new. The XFL was doing this already. In fact, IMO, they were doing it even better, but upon stealing the idea the NFL tweaked a few things that didn't need tweaking and likely made it worse again (go figure lol). But yeah, they gathered tons and tons of data not only on the decrease of injuries doing kickoff this way, but driving towards making the play more important and more exciting, rewarding teams who don't just take a touchback or fair catch.

Inventive/creative teams will without a doubt take advantage of this and I would just about guarantee we'll see at least one game next season won primarily because of these changes. With the kickoff team lining up within yards of the return team, I think we'll see more premiere athletic players doing returns as the injury risk is driven down a lot. The one that jumps out to me would be having Tyreek Hill going back to returning kickoffs. Also, probably the only positive tweak the NFL made over the XFL, having multiple returners eligible could lead to some really exciting reverses and laterals/tosses in designed return plays. It was something I was wishing the NFL would steal for years now.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't see how this dramatically changes kickoffs to become relevant again. The safe play will always be to take the ball at the 30, and kicking into the end zone seems to be the result of the vast majority of kickoffs.

Sure, this allows for some interesting options, but they didn't really do anything to truly incentivize those options.

Seems like if they wanted KR to return kicks, they'd put the touchback at the 20, not the 30. If anything, by moving it up 5 yards, they're discouraging returns.

 

[Instinctive]

I don't see how this dramatically changes kickoffs to become relevant again. The safe play will always be to take the ball at the 30, and kicking into the end zone seems to be the result of the vast majority of kickoffs.

Sure, this allows for some interesting options, but they didn't really do anything to truly incentivize those options.

Seems like if they wanted KR to return kicks, they'd put the touchback at the 20, not the 30. If anything, by moving it up 5 yards, they're discouraging returns.

Yeah but they're also incentivizing the kicking team not to put it in the endzone, right?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Yeah but they're also incentivizing the kicking team not to put it in the endzone, right?

Kinda. I guess. It’s +5 yards vs having 2 KR who could hurt you worse.

If the 25 didn’t incentivize that I’m not sure why the 30 would.

The decision is whether to risk the KRTD or not, right?

 

[Instinctive]

Yeah but they're also incentivizing the kicking team not to put it in the endzone, right?

Kinda. I guess. It’s +5 yards vs having 2 KR who could hurt you worse.

If the 25 didn’t incentivize that I’m not sure why the 30 would.

The decision is whether to risk the KRTD or not, right?

I imagine the analytics will come out to say a KRTD is unlikely, and we'll look at average field position for returned kicks, and we'll see that good kickoff kickers matter a lot more too, and teams can differentiate.

I'm sure some teams will boot it every time still. Others will try really hard to return well. Others will be dumb and not take advantage of any perceived edges.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Kinda a bummer that Belichick isn't coaching somewhere with this new rule in place. Given his ST coordinator origins I bet he would put in some interesting wrinkles to exploit advantages

-QG

 

[joey]

Irony that the XFL makes up this rule, NFL adopts it, XFL mergers with USFL and the new spring league drops the rule

 

[Tau837]

Missed this thread the first time around. Here are a couple good articles from the Athletic:

Making sense of NFL’s new kickoff rule and what it means for next season (March 26)
How did new kickoff rules affect NFL Draft? ‘You can either complain or adapt’ (May 6)

 

[Scoresman]

Looking at some of the data from the XFL, if you're in a league that scores kick return yards, you'll likely want to pay attention to this new rule. In the XFL, 6 players had over 500 yards returning in the new ruleset, and that was only in 10 games. The NFL had 2 over a 17 game season.

Do we know who teams will be using for kick returns yet? It looks like with the new rules, pure speed isn't of much value anymore. So the personnel might change. It looks like players who are YAC monsters will thrive in kickoffs. I wonder if we'll see more stud players take kickoffs since it should be safer. Especially in situations where a team ight be losing.

 

[Scoresman]

Some articles I'm reading are suggesting teams with elite running QBs should use them on kickoffs.

 

[Tau837]

Touchbacks will likely dominate the NFL’s new kickoff

The XFL’s kickoff return was returned for an average position of 29 yards. The NFL moved the kickoff back five yards (along with a few other rule changes), so the expectation going into the season is that the starting field position spot will be around the 34-yard-line. Here’s the problem: The NFL didn’t adjust the penalty for a touchback to go along with that five-yard change, so touchbacks out the back of the end zone have a starting field position at the 30-yard-line...which could lead to just as many touchbacks as before.

If kicking teams are electing to allow return teams to field the ball, the main strategy is going to be a sort of long squib attempt. If a ball bounces inside the 20 and goes out of the end zone, the touchback simply goes to the 20-yard-line. Under XFL rules, there was a hangtime penalty that was enforced to prevent these “long squib” attempts, but the NFL didn’t adopt it.

So you’re going to see one of two plays with the NFL’s rules: A kick out of the back of the end zone or a long squib that could lead to teams actually using two returners on the field at the same time rather than just the single returner that we’re used to...

Florio claims that one coach told him that teams “will choose to kick out of the end zone at the outset of the season, so that the play can be studied based on the teams that choose to be the guinea pigs for it.”

In 2023, the average drive started at the 28.8 yard line. So not much sacrificed by just giving opponents a touchback at the 30.

 

[menobrown]

In 2023, the average drive started at the 28.8 yard line. So not much sacrificed by just giving opponents a touchback at the 30.

Yes, this is what I've been hearing most teams will do.

 

[Scoresman]

That's too bad. I think it would be amazing seeing Lamar Jackson or Ceedee Lamb taking kickoffs in the new format.

 

[Bri]

Some articles I'm reading are suggesting teams with elite running QBs should use them on kickoffs.

I enjoy this discussion even if it never happens and is unlikely.
I enjoyed college Mariota and so many on option plays. I think Justin Fields is hard enough to tackle to have him pausing to pump fake. On and on...
Maybe fourth quarter desperation but it's not likely.
Ol Antonio Andrews was built like a truck, played gunner and KR, RB FB and was a two time Mr Football at QB in highschool. He's probably ideal for scheming.
Many in the NFL have played offense and defense and QB in high school. Often times it's a RB because a lot of high schools have little intention of passing so the center snap is essentially snap n run. Many fans played in an offense like that
I think we're all a bit too obsessed with trickery and what we know. It's what we do, I get it.

As I've said before, it's often times a battle for the sideline and to race up it as far as you can. The gunner is usually taken out and the guy inside him makes the play. Maybe the gunner pulls up and holds his spot next return. The return team wants (any position but acting as) a couple FBs smashing up the sideline as the returner follows.

It's just rarely elaborate and as drawn up on paper. That's the thing too. We all practiced a million kicks returns in school ball and rarely had a long gain.

It's all about that sideline

 

[QuizGuy66]

Some articles I'm reading are suggesting teams with elite running QBs should use them on kickoffs.

time

-QG

 

[cockroach]

This is what it will look like per Schefter: https://x.com/AdamSchefter/status/1772615947922149879?s=20

Looks like the opportunity for a lot of flags.


What's the "false start"/"offsides" penalty like?

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Touchbacks will likely dominate the NFL’s new kickoff

The XFL’s kickoff return was returned for an average position of 29 yards. The NFL moved the kickoff back five yards (along with a few other rule changes), so the expectation going into the season is that the starting field position spot will be around the 34-yard-line. Here’s the problem: The NFL didn’t adjust the penalty for a touchback to go along with that five-yard change, so touchbacks out the back of the end zone have a starting field position at the 30-yard-line...which could lead to just as many touchbacks as before.

If kicking teams are electing to allow return teams to field the ball, the main strategy is going to be a sort of long squib attempt. If a ball bounces inside the 20 and goes out of the end zone, the touchback simply goes to the 20-yard-line. Under XFL rules, there was a hangtime penalty that was enforced to prevent these “long squib” attempts, but the NFL didn’t adopt it.

So you’re going to see one of two plays with the NFL’s rules: A kick out of the back of the end zone or a long squib that could lead to teams actually using two returners on the field at the same time rather than just the single returner that we’re used to...

Florio claims that one coach told him that teams “will choose to kick out of the end zone at the outset of the season, so that the play can be studied based on the teams that choose to be the guinea pigs for it.”

In 2023, the average drive started at the 28.8 yard line. So not much sacrificed by just giving opponents a touchback at the 30.

Florio might be right on this particular subject, why not give up an extra yard or two as insurance against a big runback. At least until you see how it works out for the teams that take that chance.

 

[Zeppelin]

If there is a touchback they should move it to the 40 yard line.

 

[ZWK]

Adam Harstad: Kickoff Returns Are Changing: Here's Why That Matters
Kickoff returns will dramatically change the face of special teams-- and, in some cases, fantasy football.

Shawn Syed: The New NFL Kickoff: Breaking Down a Season of XFL Kickoffs to See What We Should Expect
I watched, charted, and broke down 400+ XFL kickoffs to see what the NFL's new kickoff rule will look like. Here's what I learned.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Some articles I'm reading are suggesting teams with elite running QBs should use them on kickoffs.

NY Times NFL analysts?

 

[Joe Bryant]

Seeing this in action last night my response was: Awesome.

Once again the league nailed it. These will be so fun.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Adam Harstad: Kickoff Returns Are Changing: Here's Why That Matters
Kickoff returns will dramatically change the face of special teams-- and, in some cases, fantasy football.

Shawn Syed: The New NFL Kickoff: Breaking Down a Season of XFL Kickoffs to See What We Should Expect
I watched, charted, and broke down 400+ XFL kickoffs to see what the NFL's new kickoff rule will look like. Here's what I learned.

 

[Max Power]

It looks fun. Seems like teams are 2 good blocks away from running it back each time.

Only a matter of time before teams start using the up returner to circle back behind the return man for a pitch to get some misdirection returns.

 

[Joe Bryant]

It looks fun. Seems like teams are 2 good blocks away from running it back each time.

Only a matter of time before teams start using the up returner to circle back behind the return man for a pitch to get some misdirection returns.

Yes. I'll be super interested to see the success rates on this.

 

[LawFitz]

It looks fun. Seems like teams are 2 good blocks away from running it back each time.

Only a matter of time before teams start using the up returner to circle back behind the return man for a pitch to get some misdirection returns.

Thinking Mia, KC and SF will lead the innovations.

 

[Scoresman]

So what is it? Are teams going to be actually running it back on kickoffs? Or will it continue to be all touchbacks? I hear good arguments for both sides.

 

[Joe Schmo]

So what is it? Are teams going to be actually running it back on kickoffs? Or will it continue to be all touchbacks? I hear good arguments for both sides.

Yes-the avg. ball spot on returns is before the 30 yd line so its a chance to pin a team down. Kick out the endzone will occur late in games, imo.

• If a kick falls into the landing zone, the ball must be returned; there are no fair catches.
• A kick that lands short of the landing zone or is kicked out of bounds before the goal line will be placed on the receiving team’s 40-yard line.
• A kick that hits the landing zone and then goes into the end zone must be returned or downed by the receiving team. If the ball is downed, it will be placed on the receiving team’s 20-yard line.
• A ball kicked through the back of the end zone, or one that bounces in the landing zone and through the back of the end zone will be placed on the receiving team’s 30-yard line.
• Onside kicks are only allowed in the 4th quarter as declared by the trailing team.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

So what is it? Are teams going to be actually running it back on kickoffs? Or will it continue to be all touchbacks? I hear good arguments for both sides.

Yes-the avg. ball spot on returns is before the 30 yd line so its a chance to pin a team down. Kick out the endzone will occur late in games, imo.

• If a kick falls into the landing zone, the ball must be returned; there are no fair catches.
• A kick that lands short of the landing zone or is kicked out of bounds before the goal line will be placed on the receiving team’s 40-yard line.
• A kick that hits the landing zone and then goes into the end zone must be returned or downed by the receiving team. If the ball is downed, it will be placed on the receiving team’s 20-yard line.
• A ball kicked through the back of the end zone, or one that bounces in the landing zone and through the back of the end zone will be placed on the receiving team’s 30-yard line.
• Onside kicks are only allowed in the 4th quarter as declared by the trailing team.

I like almost all of this. One tweak I might make is moving it to the 35 instead of 30 for kicks through the end zone.

 

[joey]

I heard on Raiders radio that Carlson was trying some kind of “special” kick to take advantage of these new rules, and they said that the league told him he can’t kick it like that. No other details given (Raider Nation Radio is the worst…and I’m a raiders fan. JT the Brick is a narcissistic blow hard. Not that anyone asked )

Anyone know anything about what they’re referring to? What Carlson was trying?

 

[Gally]

I see this as teams just kicking it for touchbacks. The advantage gained by allowing a return doesn't seem to be worth the risk of a long return. Just give them the ball at the 30

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I see this as teams just kicking it for touchbacks. The advantage gained by allowing a return doesn't seem to be worth the risk of a long return. Just give them the ball at the 30

That's why I prefer the 35, at least make the other team think about it.

 

[Max Power]

Just had a safety on a kickoff in the KC game. Teams still don't understand all the new rules yet.

 

[Dez]

Just had a safety on a kickoff in the KC game. Teams still don't understand all the new rules yet.

 

[Yenrub]

Just had a safety on a kickoff in the KC game. Teams still don't understand all the new rules yet.

Jags had a 74-yard return earlier in the game
https://x.com/Jaguars/status/1822412003433923070

 

[eoMMan]

Now that we’re seeing the new kickoff in action, I hate it. It makes the game so much more boring. Thumbs down.

 

[Bri]

I thought two 49ers didn't realize this is tough like an old school football drill and not as much tactical pretty speed. On the Titans KR, at least two, about got punched into the dirt with the blocks/hits they absorbed.

This probably needed to happen too.

I imagine coaches showing which teams returned the ball well and going over this this week sooo I'm wondering if it'll be more fun next week across the league.

WRs and scatback types can't generally(generally) do anything but return the ball. They need linebackers, safeties, running backs, fullbacks, and tight ends. Guys that love to hit and be hit. Ya just can't have some thin WR or little back shying away from contact. It won't work.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Going to be an advantage to the few teams that figure it out quickly for the first few weeks until it gets copied and stopped.

Preseason just looks like Rugby and they keep saying nobody is showing anything.

 

[BobbyLayne]

MCDC brought this up at his presser before last night's practice:

Dan Campbell noted he and special teams coordinator Dave Fipp recently watched tape of every kickoff from the first batch of preseason games trying to extract every morsel of information they could from the new-look play.

“Every time you see one, you learn something new,” Campbell said. “…A team’s doing this, they’re not doing this, and you learn it on both sides of the ball. I think what it’s going to come down to is what you feel like you’re figuring out a little bit is what is the risk-reward. If you’re a kickoff team and, ultimately, feel like you want to have this advantage, that’s why you’re kicking it into play. Well, if we’re out there battling just so they get it back to the 30 or the 29 (yard line) repetitively, what are we really gaining? You want to feel like, if we’re doing this, we can get them (down) inside the 25 at least.”

Campbell’s comments highlight the biggest fear with the redesign — teams ultimately deciding there’s no value in kicking off and reverting to sending the majority of kicks into the end zone for touchbacks. With the ball coming out to the 30-yard line now, that would still accomplish one of the league’s goals, to increase starting field position, but the play would continue to be boring and borderline unnecessary.

The bolded is my biggest fear and seems like the most likely outcome, e.g., the net effect will be nothing changes except we moved the starting field position line after a TB 5 yards.

edit typo

 

[Leroy Hoard]

MCDC brought his up at his presser before last night's practice:

Dan Campbell noted he and special teams coordinator Dave Fipp recently watched tape of every kickoff from the first batch of preseason games trying to extract every morsel of information they could from the new-look play.

“Every time you see one, you learn something new,” Campbell said. “…A team’s doing this, they’re not doing this, and you learn it on both sides of the ball. I think what it’s going to come down to is what you feel like you’re figuring out a little bit is what is the risk-reward. If you’re a kickoff team and, ultimately, feel like you want to have this advantage, that’s why you’re kicking it into play. Well, if we’re out there battling just so they get it back to the 30 or the 29 (yard line) repetitively, what are we really gaining? You want to feel like, if we’re doing this, we can get them (down) inside the 25 at least.”

Campbell’s comments highlight the biggest fear with the redesign — teams ultimately deciding there’s no value in kicking off and reverting to sending the majority of kicks into the end zone for touchbacks. With the ball coming out to the 30-yard line now, that would still accomplish one of the league’s goals, to increase starting field position, but the play would continue to be boring and borderline unnecessary.

The bolded is my biggest fear and seems like the most likely outcome, e.g., the net effect will be nothing changes except we moved the starting field position line after a TB 5 yards.

If so I think they will change it to the 35 instead of the 30. Right now not much to lose by kicking through the end zone.

 

[zed2283]

Should be at the 20 anyway.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Now that we’re seeing the new kickoff in action, I hate it. It makes the game so much more boring. Thumbs down.

More boring than a touchback?

 

[eoMMan]

Now that we’re seeing the new kickoff in action, I hate it. It makes the game so much more boring. Thumbs down.

More boring than a touchback?

Yes. Because you don’t know a touchback is coming until it’s kicked and there’s always the chance a guy can run one back. This new method almost guarantees a short return with no running in for a score.

Don’t likey. I

 

[eighsse2]

with no running in for a score

Why is that? I haven't really read into the new rules or seen how it works. But I thought I had heard big returns (and TD's) were supposed to be a little more likely if anything.

 

[BlackCrowes]

with no running in for a score

Why is that? I haven't really read into the new rules or seen how it works. But I thought I had heard big returns (and TD's) were supposed to be a little more likely if anything.

i think its hard to tell at this point. I would expect maybe a small increase in average return length (not factoring in touchbacks), but until they get film and start designing blocking schemes, seems like we're just guessing.

 

[zed2283]

Why don't they just make the return mandatory unless it's kicked out of bounds (and brought to the 40)?

 

[BIRDGANG52]

Has anybody brought one of these back for a touchdown yet?

 

[markrc99]

Why don't they just make the return mandatory unless it's kicked out of bounds (and brought to the 40)?

Why are they trying to bring this play back? Yeah, because the kicker has pretty much rendered it meaningless. He's constantly kicking the ball out of the back of the end-zone. It doesn't make any sense, none, to bother with all this & not address the overriding reason there often isn't a return. This is not an adopted rule, it's something they're looking at.

My belief is that the 30yd line allows teams to come along at their own pace. They've wanted to do something but I think the deterrent has been the rate of concussion. If this new alignment alleviates that problem, the new kickoff rule will become permanent. If & when that happens, I have no doubt they'll address the incentive to kick the ball into & out of the back of the EZ. Consider what was mentioned above, that the team kicking off has to declare an onside kick. Meaning, the element of surprise of an onside kick will be lost. That they're going to chuck into the garbage one of the few aspects of this play that's exciting & do NOTHING about the touchback ratio is too stupid to believe!!

I believe that you're right, the ball kicked out of the back will become out of bounds. I think there's a good chance that any kick that isn't returnable is brought out to the 40yd line, maybe even mid-field. The question then becomes what is or isn't returnable? Ultimately, I think the kicker's leeway is going to be only a yard or two into the end-zone. Anything deeper than that & he's kicked it out of bounds. Once they address the kicker, DEF/ST units are going to rival the scoring of QB in leagues that got rid of the shutout bonus & in its place, added the return game.

 

[GregR]

Preseason so it will remain to see how things shake out. But 81% of kickoffs had been returned in preseason at the time of whatever article I saw. Up from 65% by the old rules.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Preseason so it will remain to see how things shake out. But 81% of kickoffs had been returned in preseason at the time of whatever article I saw. Up from 65% by the old rules.

Preseason seems to be the best time to test the return and coverage teams. Once the regular season starts maybe some of those will just be kicked through the end zone?

 

[nittanylion]

Could someone please remind me which part of the XFL/UFL Rule was excluded by the NFL, that's going to make the NFL version not as good as the one being used in the Spring League, from which it was derived?

I seem to recall someone, somewhere saying that the NFL, left something out of this, that was a key to why this was supposed to be a good idea in the first place, and why the NFL's version of this is not necessarily going to achieve the desired result.

TIA.