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***New Orleans at Tampa Bay*** (-11) (45.5) (1 Viewer)

Capella said:
Cost his team 30 points of win prob. Come on man. He’s horrible. 
 

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1472944076601401351?s=21
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You think Arians is horrible?

I was openly begging for the Bucs to take a knee 2nd Half before they could have lost Brady as the cherry on top on the way out of Bucs Stadium yesterday. I totally understand your POV, you're justified and use the stats perfectly on your side but I think the game itself in real time, even if they made that 4th down you bring up, they couldn't score and they weren't going to score on Sunday. 

I've never seen Top Flight WRs go down 1-2 and then lose your Superback in the same game. Fournette was set for maybe 10-12 catches since everyone was gone by that point and Gronk ad the worst game of his life. 

-I'm afraid he Bucs might have lost their season last night, most painful it's been since let's see...Oh the Saints visiting lst year and beating the Bucs 38-3...now we both know what happened after that but the Bucs didn't have this many injuries so late in the season as I recall. 

Bucs will likely need to win 7 in a row to repeat as of this Morning. They won 8 or 9 in a row last year including the Super Bowl after a rough patch. 

 
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Capella said:
Cost his team 30 points of win prob. Come on man. He’s horrible. 
 

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1472944076601401351?s=21
Click to expand...
I was kidding. I don't really know nor have any way of knowing.

If I wanted to be contrarian, I'd insist that I don't know the inputs going into that particular WP model. I'm essentially as blind as a bat about it. It's like the ESPN Playoff Likelihood models. I don't know what goes into it and I've seen those be wrong before.

But I won't belabor that, because that's a bit persnickety on my end, and I was just giving you stuff.

Here's what I really think: I don't think it was a particularly egregious decision, but even my sort of would-be hip self might still be making dated decisions. I don't think the decision to punt there really cost them a whole ton, and there were most likely other huge WP spike plays (Brady's fumble on the twenty or so) that really determined the game. Did the punt help? Probably not. Was it egregious? Not too much so. 

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
You think Arians is horrible?

I was openly begging for the Bucs to take a knee 2nd Half before they could have lost Brady as the cherry on top on the way out of Bucs Stadium yesterday. I totally understand your POV, you're justified and use the stats perfectly on your side but I think the game itself in real time, even if they made that 4th down you bring up, they couldn't score and they weren't going to score on Sunday. 

I've never seen Top Flight WRs go down 1-2 and then lose your Superback in the same game. Fournette was set for maybe 10-12 catches since everyone was gone by that point and Gronk ad the worst game of his life. 

-I'm afraid he Bucs might have lost their season last night, most painful it's been since let's see...Oh the Saints visiting lst year and beating the Bucs 38-3...now we both know what happened after that but the Bucs didn't have this many injuries so late in the season as I recall. 

Bucs will likely need to win 7 in a row to repeat as of this Morning. They won 8 or 9 in a row last year including the Super Bowl after a rough patch. 
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So if they couldn’t move the ball they should punt it away and continue to take the ball out of their own hands? If you’re struggling you need to do things to tilt the odds back to your favor. 
 

That was obviously a bad outcome for the Bucs but if they get their guys back they should be fine. Would’ve been a perfect game to have AB but alas. He could have saved them. 

 
rockaction said:
I was kidding. I don't really know nor have any way of knowing.

If I wanted to be contrarian, I'd insist that I don't know the inputs going into that particular WP model. I'm essentially as blind as a bat about it. It's like the ESPN Playoff Likelihood models. I don't know what goes into it and I've seen those be wrong before.

But I won't belabor that, because that's a bit persnickety on my end, and I was just giving you stuff.

Here's what I really think: I don't think it was a particularly egregious decision, but even my sort of would-be hip self might still be making dated decisions. I don't think the decision to punt there really cost them a whole ton, and there were most likely other huge WP spike plays (Brady's fumble on the twenty or so) that really determined the game. Did the punt help? Probably not. Was it egregious? Not too much so. 
Click to expand...
He’s explained the methodology behind it. I don’t know where to find it but it takes every game situation going back a while. 
 

The Brady fumble was a killer but that’s also why you need to make the right decisions after to get that advantage back. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
So you won't let me enter into evidence the snowplow game? 
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Did the snowplow game feature two to possibly three sure-fire, first-ballot locks for the Hall of Fame (Brady, Gronk & Suh)?  Did it have one of the most dynamic pass-catching running backs in NFL history?  Any Heisman winners in the snowplow game?  Super Bowl winning coaches?  

That game was just a hot, steaming, messy pile of excrement.   Not at ALL bitter that it knocked me out of all playoff races and cost me several hundred in gambling, nope, no sireeeee.  :hot:

 
General Malaise said:
Did the snowplow game feature two to possibly three sure-fire, first-ballot locks for the Hall of Fame (Brady, Gronk & Suh)?  Did it have one of the most dynamic pass-catching running backs in NFL history?  Any Heisman winners in the snowplow game?  Super Bowl winning coaches?  

That game was just a hot, steaming, messy pile of excrement.   Not at ALL bitter that it knocked me out of all playoff races and cost me several hundred in gambling, nope, no sireeeee.  :hot:
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If it matters at all I'm right there with you and the rest of my team being piece mailed over MON AND TUE knowing I have zero shot with the Brady-Godwin combo from last night, believe me this loss was the worst I've felt in a long time. Thanks for explaining, it doesn't help but you're far from alone on this. 

-I was going to actually list a bunch of names form the snowplow game but in light of your position I'll spare you the agony  :lmao:

 
rockaction said:
In the way it happened? A 9-0 shutout with Tampa at home? 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say very, very few people had that. 
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I don't disagree..but owning is owning...score be damned, wasn't it 38-3 in tampa last year...I doubt few had that either...but the bucs are owned by the saints

 
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JIMGET said:
I don't disagree..but owning is owning...score be damned, wasn't it 38-3 in tampa last year...I doubt few had that either...but the bucs are owned by the saints
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I seem to recall one important game where the Bucs beat the Saints. 

 
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