New Orleans offense (1 Viewer)

[Will]

I have been seeing a lot of projections for the New Orleans offense to equal or exceed last years impressive output. There is a lot of love for Brees, Colston, Bush (he is going as high as 4 in initial Dynasty drafts) Deuce, Henderson, Copper and even TE now...

I can buy into it, Brees looked great, Colston was a terriffic surprise, Bush is a dynamic talent etc.

But, There is a little voice in my head warning me that last year might be a high water mark for the New Orleans offense. (I know, bad pun, sorry)

The little voice keeps telling me that New Orleans took a lot of teams by surprise and that may not happen again. (This is the same little voice that tells me to eat fried cheese and have another beer so take all this for what it's worth) But isn't it possible that defensive coordinators were not quite ready last year, but they may be more prepared with a season of film to work with? There were so many new aspects to the New Orleans offense last year, it almost feels to me like the stars aligned and everything went perfect, but can that continue?

The entire team was riding a good will feeling from everyone following the tragedy down there. Brees was new, Bush was an unknown but very dynamic and explosive playmaker, Deuce was back from injury, Colston was a complete unknown, Horn was injured and Henderson and Copper filled in, playing great one week, disappearing the next. Game planning against them defensively had to have been a nightmare right?

Maybe I am just being a worrier, but I just can't bring myself to draft any New Orleans players as high as they are going, or trade for them at their current value.

Am I missing the boat here?

I'd appreciate anyone that can help me better understand the situation down there and maybe quiet the little voice. (without Prozac)

Thanks in advance...

 

[renesauz]

You aren't alone. I too, feel like the stars aligned for N.O. last year. While I expect them to be solid, I'm thinking they take half a step backwards from last year.

 

[Phurfur]

I have been seeing a lot of projections for the New Orleans offense to equal or exceed last years impressive output. There is a lot of love for Brees, Colston, Bush (he is going as high as 4 in initial Dynasty drafts) Deuce, Henderson, Copper and even TE now...I can buy into it, Brees looked great, Colston was a terriffic surprise, Bush is a dynamic talent etc.But, There is a little voice in my head warning me that last year might be a high water mark for the New Orleans offense. (I know, bad pun, sorry)The little voice keeps telling me that New Orleans took a lot of teams by surprise and that may not happen again. (This is the same little voice that tells me to eat fried cheese and have another beer so take all this for what it's worth) But isn't it possible that defensive coordinators were not quite ready last year, but they may be more prepared with a season of film to work with? There were so many new aspects to the New Orleans offense last year, it almost feels to me like the stars aligned and everything went perfect, but can that continue?The entire team was riding a good will feeling from everyone following the tragedy down there. Brees was new, Bush was an unknown but very dynamic and explosive playmaker, Deuce was back from injury, Colston was a complete unknown, Horn was injured and Henderson and Copper filled in, playing great one week, disappearing the next. Game planning against them defensively had to have been a nightmare right?Maybe I am just being a worrier, but I just can't bring myself to draft any New Orleans players as high as they are going, or trade for them at their current value.Am I missing the boat here?I'd appreciate anyone that can help me better understand the situation down there and maybe quiet the little voice. (without Prozac)Thanks in advance...

I have the same worries. I think Bush will exceed last year's numbers but everyone else will be lucky to match them.

 

[Bizkiteer]

I think you are wise to worry about the production and not to jump on the bandwagon. My gut, when not full with beer, says that they will come down a bit too. Teams will be more prepared for them and their WR corps is lacking in depth. One injury and they should be hurting, assuming they don't get an impact offensive type player in the draft.

I'll let other drink that kool aid, while I choose to drink something else.

 

[BoltBacker]

You aren't alone. I too, feel like the stars aligned for N.O. last year. While I expect them to be solid, I'm thinking they take half a step backwards from last year.

Half a step back is still a ton of production, but I'm not even sure if I agree that they'll take half a step back. I'd be more worried if their offense was a success last year because of a ton of big plays and they had trouble consistently moving the chains, or they had success despite a suspect line, or Bush dominated early but teams figured out how to contain him the second half of the year or some of their key offensive components were getting old. I don't see any of that. It's a young offense that nobody figured out how to stop last year and Bush finished the season on an upswing and it's probable he'll have a much bigger impact this year than last. Brees is young and proven. That OL is solid. They finished 5th in 1st downs so it wasn't a bunch of fluke big plays.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Lets look at where some of these players are being drafted..

Bush - anywhere from top 3 to 7. There is a lot of uncertainity out there after LT & SJax, and you know that this kid is going to be great unless he gets a career injury. So "reaching" for Bush is an investment pick.

Brees - mid to late 3rd. He is only 27; that is extremely young for a top 5 QB. Brees is going to be putting up good #s for a long-time.

Duece - mid to late 3rd. Don't expect a top 10 RB finish; but anywhere from top RB 15 - 20 is excellent value for a late 3rd.

Colston - anywhere from the mid 3rd to late 4th. Heres the one that scares me, I have seen a lot of proven players passed over for him. Anywhere from late 4th or later would feel right to me, before that and you might be asking for trouble.

E Johnson - excellent TE2.. if hes TE1; better back him up.

Henderson / Copper - these 2 are flyer picks right now. IMO, if your passing up guys like Marshall, B Jones, Curtis, M Jones, Branch and anyone else that is gona to be a #2 or #3 FF WR; your reaching. These guys should be your 4th to 5th option.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

I have been seeing a lot of projections for the New Orleans offense to equal or exceed last years impressive output. There is a lot of love for Brees, Colston, Bush (he is going as high as 4 in initial Dynasty drafts) Deuce, Henderson, Copper and even TE now...

I can buy into it, Brees looked great, Colston was a terriffic surprise, Bush is a dynamic talent etc.

But, There is a little voice in my head warning me that last year might be a high water mark for the New Orleans offense. (I know, bad pun, sorry)

The little voice keeps telling me that New Orleans took a lot of teams by surprise and that may not happen again. (This is the same little voice that tells me to eat fried cheese and have another beer so take all this for what it's worth) But isn't it possible that defensive coordinators were not quite ready last year, but they may be more prepared with a season of film to work with? There were so many new aspects to the New Orleans offense last year, it almost feels to me like the stars aligned and everything went perfect, but can that continue?

The entire team was riding a good will feeling from everyone following the tragedy down there. Brees was new, Bush was an unknown but very dynamic and explosive playmaker, Deuce was back from injury, Colston was a complete unknown, Horn was injured and Henderson and Copper filled in, playing great one week, disappearing the next. Game planning against them defensively had to have been a nightmare right?

Maybe I am just being a worrier, but I just can't bring myself to draft any New Orleans players as high as they are going, or trade for them at their current value.

Am I missing the boat here?

I'd appreciate anyone that can help me better understand the situation down there and maybe quiet the little voice. (without Prozac)

Thanks in advance...

I have the same worries. I think Bush will exceed last year's numbers but everyone else will be lucky to match them.

Sounds a bit superstitious to me as I can't think of a tangible reason why each and every player other than Bush takes a step back but for each of them I can think of several reasons why they would be able to improve their play.Brees - gets to go through all of the camps this year and should have an even stronger understanding of the offense and more time to be in synch with his WR's

Colston, Henderson, Copper - young WR's who have another year of seasoning on them and experience and will have opportunity to gain better chemistry with their QB. Most good or great QB/WR combos get better with time as they begin to anticipate better what each other is expecting and what they will do in different situations

Deuce - last year was one year removed from season ending knee surgery. Should be closer to 100% recovered this year and potentially more explosive than last year.

Bush - came on strong at the end of the year and should build on that

Only reason it seems they could fall back is if the O-line overachieved last year or takes a step back and I'm not sure why that would happen. Is there any changeover in their line? Sure people will be ready for them but that doesn't mean that they can stop them. People know what to expect from the Colts each year too but I'm not sure that does them any good. Not saying they are at the Colt's level, just saying that they are extremely talented and that I don't think the "people will figure them out" argument is legit. Why would you assume that one year into the system that they'd understand the offense better, would be able to execute it better, and that the coach would be able to continue to add new wrinkles to it. Not saying they won't take a step back but I can certainly think of more reasons for improvement than I can for them to take a step back.

 

[erymer]

You aren't alone. I too, feel like the stars aligned for N.O. last year. While I expect them to be solid, I'm thinking they take half a step backwards from last year.

Half a step back is still a ton of production, but I'm not even sure if I agree that they'll take half a step back. I'd be more worried if their offense was a success last year because of a ton of big plays and they had trouble consistently moving the chains, or they had success despite a suspect line, or Bush dominated early but teams figured out how to contain him the second half of the year or some of their key offensive components were getting old. I don't see any of that. It's a young offense that nobody figured out how to stop last year and Bush finished the season on an upswing and it's probable he'll have a much bigger impact this year than last. Brees is young and proven. That OL is solid. They finished 5th in 1st downs so it wasn't a bunch of fluke big plays.

I think part of the reason for the offense explosion last year was due to the play on the defensive side of the ball. It seemed to me that most of the time, they were involved in shootout's. I think the offense will be as good if not better, but the numbers may suffer a bit as the def improves. I think if the D improves, you'll see an increase in production from McAllister and Bush, and a slight drop from Brees and the WR corp. just my

 

[identikit]

You aren't alone. I too, feel like the stars aligned for N.O. last year. While I expect them to be solid, I'm thinking they take half a step backwards from last year.

Half a step back is still a ton of production, but I'm not even sure if I agree that they'll take half a step back. I'd be more worried if their offense was a success last year because of a ton of big plays and they had trouble consistently moving the chains, or they had success despite a suspect line, or Bush dominated early but teams figured out how to contain him the second half of the year or some of their key offensive components were getting old. I don't see any of that. It's a young offense that nobody figured out how to stop last year and Bush finished the season on an upswing and it's probable he'll have a much bigger impact this year than last. Brees is young and proven. That OL is solid. They finished 5th in 1st downs so it wasn't a bunch of fluke big plays.

I believe that they'll be at least at, if not better than, last year's performance. Colston missed games that he (hopefully) won't this year. McCallister is another year removed from his big injury (and yeah, i know one year older). As others have said here, Bush was on the upswing at year's end. The OL which was somewhat suspect in training camp last year has another year of experience and cohesiveness. A viable TE option in Eric Johnson (please don't get hurt) will add to things as well.Id

 

[trader jake]

Unless you're projecting a Drew Brees injury or you expect the Saints defense to make a big leap up the offense should be fine.

 

[Sidewinder]

...The little voice keeps telling me that New Orleans took a lot of teams by surprise and that may not happen again. ... But isn't it possible that defensive coordinators were not quite ready last year, but they may be more prepared with a season of film to work with? ...

Guess I don't buy the premise that DC's might not have been quite ready last year, especially over the second half of the season once they had a bunch of games in the can at their disposal. Compare the first 10 games to the next 5 (throw out week 16 where the starters sat): the Saints averaged 24.5 points per game over the first 10 games (with 3 games of 30+ points), then in games 11-15, they averaged 29.4 ppg, with 4 of those 5 games at 30+ points.(In my admittedly biased opinion) Barring a significant injury to a key player, I just don't see the offense falling noticably back this year. The only number I'd think would regress from 2006 will be Brees' passing yards. And with Horn gone, I see the group of WRs and Bush divvying up Joe's numbers.Of course, with FF, not overpaying for a player is key. And like you stated, the value just may not be there for some (most?) of the Saints, but that is a different issue...

 

[KellysHeroes]

I think the passing #s will go down.. to ask a QB to throw 4400+ a season is crazy. I think anywhere from 3700 - 4000 is reasonable.

Heres what I see; 2006 #s compared to 2007

2006 Brees: 356 comp / 4418 yds / 26 TDs.

I say 2007 #s 330 comp / 3800 (on the save side) / 25 TDs

2006 Bush: 155 ru / 565 yd / 6 TDs / 88 Rec / 746 yd / 2 TD

I say 2007 #s 200+ ru / 800+ yd / 8 TDs / 65+ Rec / 600+ yd / 2 TD

2006 McAllister: 244 ru / 1057 yd / 10 TD / 30 Rec / 198 yd

I say 2007 #s 200- ru / 800- yd / 6 TDs / 20- Rec / 100+ yd / 1 TD

2006 Colston (14 games): 70 Rec / 1038 yds / 8 TD

I say 2007 #s 70+ Rec / 1200- yd / 10 TD

 

[ThePittbully]

You aren't alone. I too, feel like the stars aligned for N.O. last year. While I expect them to be solid, I'm thinking they take half a step backwards from last year.

Half a step back is still a ton of production, but I'm not even sure if I agree that they'll take half a step back. I'd be more worried if their offense was a success last year because of a ton of big plays and they had trouble consistently moving the chains, or they had success despite a suspect line, or Bush dominated early but teams figured out how to contain him the second half of the year or some of their key offensive components were getting old. I don't see any of that. It's a young offense that nobody figured out how to stop last year and Bush finished the season on an upswing and it's probable he'll have a much bigger impact this year than last. Brees is young and proven. That OL is solid. They finished 5th in 1st downs so it wasn't a bunch of fluke big plays.

 

[Zigg]

What most detractors are missing is that DCs did adjust. Take a look at the last 5 games, teams did everything in their power to slow down Brees and co., and the running game took over. The Saints offense will be fine.

 

[renesauz]

To be accurate, I really meant a HALF A STEP back. Much like the first poster, it's more of a gut feeling that they may have rode a wave of emotion and early-season success into a great year.

That offense is young, and talented, and will still be among the league's best I believe....but I'm not buying that they are the second coming of "the greatest show on turf" just yet, as I've seen several posters in here claiming.

I would expect their offensive production to be 4-8% lower then last year. Not a big decline, and if they can keep that team together, only a one year decline.

 

[Phurfur]

You aren't alone. I too, feel like the stars aligned for N.O. last year. While I expect them to be solid, I'm thinking they take half a step backwards from last year.

Half a step back is still a ton of production, but I'm not even sure if I agree that they'll take half a step back. I'd be more worried if their offense was a success last year because of a ton of big plays and they had trouble consistently moving the chains, or they had success despite a suspect line, or Bush dominated early but teams figured out how to contain him the second half of the year or some of their key offensive components were getting old. I don't see any of that. It's a young offense that nobody figured out how to stop last year and Bush finished the season on an upswing and it's probable he'll have a much bigger impact this year than last. Brees is young and proven. That OL is solid. They finished 5th in 1st downs so it wasn't a bunch of fluke big plays.

Yes, but I think they will go too high in the draft and will not be a value pick. Last year every N.O. player out performed his draft position that will not happen this year.

 

[Double_J]

You aren't alone. I too, feel like the stars aligned for N.O. last year. While I expect them to be solid, I'm thinking they take half a step backwards from last year.

Half a step back is still a ton of production, but I'm not even sure if I agree that they'll take half a step back. I'd be more worried if their offense was a success last year because of a ton of big plays and they had trouble consistently moving the chains, or they had success despite a suspect line, or Bush dominated early but teams figured out how to contain him the second half of the year or some of their key offensive components were getting old. I don't see any of that. It's a young offense that nobody figured out how to stop last year and Bush finished the season on an upswing and it's probable he'll have a much bigger impact this year than last. Brees is young and proven. That OL is solid. They finished 5th in 1st downs so it wasn't a bunch of fluke big plays.

Yes, but I think they will go too high in the draft and will not be a value pick. Last year every N.O. player out performed his draft position that will not happen this year.

IF and that's a big IF Johnson stays healthy, I think he'll be a top 5 TE.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think part of the reason for the offense explosion last year was due to the play on the defensive side of the ball. It seemed to me that most of the time, they were involved in shootout's. I think the offense will be as good if not better, but the numbers may suffer a bit as the def improves. I think if the D improves, you'll see an increase in production from McAllister and Bush, and a slight drop from Brees and the WR corp. just my

This was one of the concerns I had. I can still see productivity in this offense, but the net result is 6,400 yards tops no matter how you slice it. That's 400 a game, just over their #1 production (391.5 YPG) last year.Give 4,000 to Brees and 2,000 to the ground game and just slice it up - see how it shakes out.I could see 2 WRs getting 1,000+ possibly, and Bush getting 700-ish or more. Throw in the TE (Eric Johnson) for 3-400 and some more to WR3 and 4 (Patten? Copper?) and there you have it for the passing game.2,000 is quite agressive in rushing, but Deuce and Bush put up 1600+ last year so it isn't unrealistic (beyond two backs - I don't quite see 2 1,000 yard rushers here).But, if they don't NEED to have all this offense, if the D improves, the offense could go down - but HC Sean Payton and all those weapons will be moving the ball.

 

[DarkManX]

Well they surprised alot of ppl last year im sure so this yr teams may key into a few areas to try and stop them but apart from maybe a small decline, I dont see them struggling. They have a young base to build on and a yr on can only make them stronger.

Now I just gotta decide whether to keep Brees or Palmer... or maybe both at QB.

 

[guderian]

1. All of the starters are back except for Horn--who missed much of the year.

2. They all have one year's experience in the offense and together.

3. Deuce is now one full year recovered from his knee injury.

4. I don't buy the "DC's were surprised" argument. Heck, us dumb fans knew the Saints offense was powerful...why would that catch a DC by surprise???

5. The now have a pass catching TE...this will really help their red zone offense since their yardage production greatly exceeded their point production.

 

[Englishteacher]

Didn't Brees sustain a serious injury in the Pro Bowl?

Anyone?

Bueller?

 

[KellysHeroes]

Didn't Brees sustain a serious injury in the Pro Bowl?

Anyone?

Bueller?

Dislocated Elbow.. recover is 6 too 8 weeksso NO

 

[Yah_Shoor_Yoobetchya]

You aren't alone. I too, feel like the stars aligned for N.O. last year. While I expect them to be solid, I'm thinking they take half a step backwards from last year.

Half a step back is still a ton of production, but I'm not even sure if I agree that they'll take half a step back. I'd be more worried if their offense was a success last year because of a ton of big plays and they had trouble consistently moving the chains, or they had success despite a suspect line, or Bush dominated early but teams figured out how to contain him the second half of the year or some of their key offensive components were getting old. I don't see any of that. It's a young offense that nobody figured out how to stop last year and Bush finished the season on an upswing and it's probable he'll have a much bigger impact this year than last. Brees is young and proven. That OL is solid. They finished 5th in 1st downs so it wasn't a bunch of fluke big plays.

 

[guderian]

Didn't Brees sustain a serious injury in the Pro Bowl?

Anyone?

Bueller?

Dislocated Elbow.. recover is 6 too 8 weeksso NO

...to his non-throwing arm no less.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Didn't Brees sustain a serious injury in the Pro Bowl?

Anyone?

Bueller?

Dislocated Elbow.. recover is 6 too 8 weeksso NO

...to his non-throwing arm no less.

Good one... I thought it was is throwing arm.. good catch

 

[Thom Yorke]

I think part of the reason for the offense explosion last year was due to the play on the defensive side of the ball. It seemed to me that most of the time, they were involved in shootout's. I think the offense will be as good if not better, but the numbers may suffer a bit as the def improves. I think if the D improves, you'll see an increase in production from McAllister and Bush, and a slight drop from Brees and the WR corp. just my

This was one of the concerns I had. I can still see productivity in this offense, but the net result is 6,400 yards tops no matter how you slice it. That's 400 a game, just over their #1 production (391.5 YPG) last year.Give 4,000 to Brees and 2,000 to the ground game and just slice it up - see how it shakes out.I could see 2 WRs getting 1,000+ possibly, and Bush getting 700-ish or more. Throw in the TE (Eric Johnson) for 3-400 and some more to WR3 and 4 (Patten? Copper?) and there you have it for the passing game.2,000 is quite agressive in rushing, but Deuce and Bush put up 1600+ last year so it isn't unrealistic (beyond two backs - I don't quite see 2 1,000 yard rushers here).But, if they don't NEED to have all this offense, if the D improves, the offense could go down - but HC Sean Payton and all those weapons will be moving the ball.

 

[Routilla]

Based on their schedule I think they will be one of the better offenses in the league once again. They have 2 really good RBs, very capable WRs and a proven winner at QB. They have 1 road game @CHI in week 17 that I don't like, every other game is either in doors, at home or against mediocre teams at best. What's not to like?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Thursday, September 6 at Indianapolis 7:30 pm

Sunday, September 16 at Tampa Bay 12:00 pm

Monday, September 24 Tennessee 7:30 pm

BYE

Sunday, October 7 Carolina 12:00 pm

Sunday, October 14 at Seattle 7:15 pm

Sunday, October 21 Atlanta 12:00 pm

Sunday, October 28 at San Francisco 3:15 pm

Sunday, November 4 Jacksonville 12:00 pm

Sunday, November 11 St. Louis 12:00 pm

Sunday, November 18 at Houston 12:00 pm

Sunday, November 25 at Carolina 12:00 pm

Sunday, December 2 Tampa Bay 12:00 pm

Monday, December 10 at Atlanta 7:30 pm

Sunday, December 16 Arizona 12:00 pm

Sunday, December 23 Philadelphia 12:00 pm

Sunday, December 30 at Chicago 12:00 pm

Most FF league's don't play week 17

They have a really nice schedule, I think they match last years production and will be one of the top 3 offense's this year.

 

[Routilla]

Thursday, September 6 at Indianapolis 7:30 pm Sunday, September 16 at Tampa Bay 12:00 pm Monday, September 24 Tennessee 7:30 pm BYE Sunday, October 7 Carolina 12:00 pm Sunday, October 14 at Seattle 7:15 pm Sunday, October 21 Atlanta 12:00 pm Sunday, October 28 at San Francisco 3:15 pm Sunday, November 4 Jacksonville 12:00 pm Sunday, November 11 St. Louis 12:00 pm Sunday, November 18 at Houston 12:00 pm Sunday, November 25 at Carolina 12:00 pm Sunday, December 2 Tampa Bay 12:00 pm Monday, December 10 at Atlanta 7:30 pm Sunday, December 16 Arizona 12:00 pm Sunday, December 23 Philadelphia 12:00 pm Sunday, December 30 at Chicago 12:00 pm Most FF league's don't play week 17They have a really nice schedule, I think they match last years production and will be one of the top 3 offense's this year.

 

[Sidewinder]

.......but I'm not buying that they are the second coming of "the greatest show on turf" just yet, as I've seen several posters in here claiming.....

I've read through the entire thread three times. No one has even insinuated that, let alone come out and "claim" as much.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Thursday, September 6 at Indianapolis 7:30 pm Sunday, September 16 at Tampa Bay 12:00 pm Monday, September 24 Tennessee 7:30 pm BYE Sunday, October 7 Carolina 12:00 pm Sunday, October 14 at Seattle 7:15 pm Sunday, October 21 Atlanta 12:00 pm Sunday, October 28 at San Francisco 3:15 pm Sunday, November 4 Jacksonville 12:00 pm Sunday, November 11 St. Louis 12:00 pm Sunday, November 18 at Houston 12:00 pm Sunday, November 25 at Carolina 12:00 pm Sunday, December 2 Tampa Bay 12:00 pm Monday, December 10 at Atlanta 7:30 pm Sunday, December 16 Arizona 12:00 pm Sunday, December 23 Philadelphia 12:00 pm Sunday, December 30 at Chicago 12:00 pm Most FF league's don't play week 17They have a really nice schedule, I think they match last years production and will be one of the top 3 offense's this year.

When the schedule came out two teams ooked to me to have fairly easy schedules. NO and TB who both play in the NFC South seem to have soft run schedules. Look at the number of yds allowed on the ground from last year and this schedule is very favorable.And some have eluded to the Saints having a better defense...where? I don't see where they signed a lot of great defensive players. IN fact I see a team that knows its strength will be on offense and is going to gameplan it that way for now. The Saints have a strong chance to mold into the types of offenses we have seen from Indy and Cinci over the past 3-4 seasons. I like NO a lot and you need to grab any piece of that offense you can. Bush and Brees should be a force. No reason Brees can't throw for 4,000 yds again and Bush is capable of a 1,000 on the ground and thru the air. He should catch 80+ balls again easy. They don't need a top notch WR2 and WR3 with Bush catching so many balls.

 

[KellysHeroes]

.......but I'm not buying that they are the second coming of "the greatest show on turf" just yet, as I've seen several posters in here claiming.....

I've read through the entire thread three times. No one has even insinuated that, let alone come out and "claim" as much.

He thinking of the other New Orleans Thread which was title "New Orleans, The New Greatest Show on Turf"

 

[Sidewinder]

.......but I'm not buying that they are the second coming of "the greatest show on turf" just yet, as I've seen several posters in here claiming.....

I've read through the entire thread three times. No one has even insinuated that, let alone come out and "claim" as much.

He thinking of the other New Orleans Thread which was title "New Orleans, The New Greatest Show on Turf"

Fair enough. Apparently missed that thread.

I think part of the reason for the offense explosion last year was due to the play on the defensive side of the ball. It seemed to me that most of the time, they were involved in shootout's. I think the offense will be as good if not better, but the numbers may suffer a bit as the def improves. I think if the D improves, you'll see an increase in production from McAllister and Bush, and a slight drop from Brees and the WR corp. just my

...But, if they don't NEED to have all this offense, if the D improves, the offense could go down - but HC Sean Payton and all those weapons will be moving the ball.

The Saints D has gotten knocked by many, but overall last season, they finished at 13th in points allowed, 11th in total yards allowed, and 4th in first downs allowed. The run defense could certainly use some shoring up, and Fred Thomas will be replaced CB, but they really didn't play badly last year. Seems to me perception is not reality in this case. Just my $0.02.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

The Saints should look to upgrade their interior offensive line during the draft, because they struggled to blow people off the ball when running up the gut. If they do so, I think the offense is likely to improve with Bush's improvements and an extra year and more experience allowing Payton to open the playbook even more, being the contributing factors.

This entire offense can come to screeching halt as they have no depth outside of reciever. A Brees injury, a McAlister injury, or an injury on the OL would be devistating to this team.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I think the passing #s will go down.. to ask a QB to throw 4400+ a season is crazy. I think anywhere from 3700 - 4000 is reasonable.Heres what I see; 2006 #s compared to 20072006 Brees: 356 comp / 4418 yds / 26 TDs. I say 2007 #s 330 comp / 3800 (on the save side) / 25 TDs2006 Bush: 155 ru / 565 yd / 6 TDs / 88 Rec / 746 yd / 2 TDI say 2007 #s 200+ ru / 800+ yd / 8 TDs / 65+ Rec / 600+ yd / 2 TD 2006 McAllister: 244 ru / 1057 yd / 10 TD / 30 Rec / 198 yd I say 2007 #s 200- ru / 800- yd / 6 TDs / 20- Rec / 100+ yd / 1 TD2006 Colston (14 games): 70 Rec / 1038 yds / 8 TDI say 2007 #s 70+ Rec / 1200- yd / 10 TD

Duece McAllister's numbers are going to go down? Is he injured? Is he too old? Did the rest of the NFL miss watching the film of him over the years but now they just realized how to stop him? Do you think two years removed from his ACL injury is worse than one year removed from major surgery? Duece McAllister is in the prime of his FF production age, he's healthy, he's got fresh legs. He's a thousand yard and double digit TD top ten FF RB. Horn is gone. You show Colsten will push down Reggie Bush's pass production down by twenty catches and that Colsten will increase his receptions and yardage totals to become thee guy in the passing attack and a top ten FF WR. Bush was not thee guy in the rushing attack and the reason is because Duece McAllister was entrenched as starter. Payton made terrific use of both RBs. This offseason the Saints let Joe Horn walk, not Duece McAllister. The only guy in the Saint offense last year who came out of left field and who caught the league by suprise was Marques Colsten. McAllister is in perfect health and far from over the hill. His role is not going to change this season. Reggie will do more in the running game but Bush is not going to steal forty plus Duece McAllister's carries. If you are not in a PPR league then last year Bush was an inconsistent second RB. McAllister was a consistent second RB. The bottom line showed the two near equals in FF production in standard scoring leagues. Full disclosure. I own BOTH Duece AND Reggie Bush. I saw Reggine extending McAllister's career with only a slight decrease in production. Bush pimps made outlandish projections of rushing stats which completely ignored/disrespected and discounted Duece McAllister. They still are overlooking Duece McAllister. The Bush pimps nailed Reggie's reception projections as Bush set the NFL rookie reception record as a RB. I did not think Bush would come in and be that productive in the passing attack as I erred on the side of caution in my projections last year. I now view Bush as the only true hybrid WR/RB. But I know Reggie is in Duece McAllister's orbit in the running game. I see Colsten in Reggie's orbit in the passing game. Payton is not going to make any change on his offense unless he needs to. Payton may has void to fill from losing Horn and I think Reggie Bush can do more in the passing game than his incredible numbers from last year. Their is no reason why he can't increase his pass recption totals especially in the absence of Joe Horn and his reception void that needs to be filled. Colsten played fantastic last year but last year he was not thee guy in the passing attack but this year many assume he will be.If their is a dip in the Saint offense, it will come from the passing attack becuase of the loss of Joe Horn. Colsten will have a bullseye on the back of his jersey that was not in place last year. When Colsten broke on the scene it was in relative obscurity operating in the shadows of Horn/Bush/McAllister. This year he's expected to step up from day and be thee guy in the passing attack to take over for Joe Horn. A heavy burden. I do not see Marques Colsten taking away twenty Reggie Bush recptions. With Horn gone they both will be asked to step up but I still see Reggie as the go-to guy in receptions and I don't see Colsten being able to seemlessly step up as the #1 WR from day one and then just steal away twenty receptions from Reggie Bush. I also do not see Reggie stealing away over forty carries from Duece McAllister when I know his role is more of a WR/RB hybrid and where I see a void created in the passing attack with the loss of Joe Horn and where Marques Colsten is supposed to fill in that huge void. Just my humble-O.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Duece McAllister's numbers are going to go down? Is he injured? Is he too old? Did the rest of the NFL miss watching the film of him over the years but now they just realized how to stop him? Do you think two years removed from his ACL injury is worse than one year removed from major surgery?

Duece McAllister is in the prime of his FF production age, he's healthy, he's got fresh legs. He's a thousand yard and double digit TD top ten FF RB.

Horn is gone. You show Colsten will push down Reggie Bush's pass production down by twenty catches and that Colsten will increase his receptions and yardage totals to become thee guy in the passing attack and a top ten FF WR. Bush was not thee guy in the rushing attack and the reason is because Duece McAllister was entrenched as starter. Payton made terrific use of both RBs. This offseason the Saints let Joe Horn walk, not Duece McAllister.

NO.. I see Reggie Bush getting more than a 150 carries which would mean Duece get less . This yr; they going to start working Bush as #1 by spliting the carries 50/50, IMO. So next yr, Bush is ready to take the loin share.Bush had 88 recs / you can't possibly see that has being a standard. Thats why I said 65+.. which means 65 is the low end.

I also do not see Reggie stealing away over forty carries from Duece McAllister when I know his role is more of a WR/RB hybrid and where I see a void created in the passing attack with the loss of Joe Horn and where Marques Colsten is supposed to fill in that huge void.

Really.. do you and Peyton have beers together too and discuss game plans .60 million is a lot money for a WR/RB hybrid.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Duece McAllister's numbers are going to go down? Is he injured? Is he too old? Did the rest of the NFL miss watching the film of him over the years but now they just realized how to stop him? Do you think two years removed from his ACL injury is worse than one year removed from major surgery?

Duece McAllister is in the prime of his FF production age, he's healthy, he's got fresh legs. He's a thousand yard and double digit TD top ten FF RB.

Horn is gone. You show Colsten will push down Reggie Bush's pass production down by twenty catches and that Colsten will increase his receptions and yardage totals to become thee guy in the passing attack and a top ten FF WR. Bush was not thee guy in the rushing attack and the reason is because Duece McAllister was entrenched as starter. Payton made terrific use of both RBs. This offseason the Saints let Joe Horn walk, not Duece McAllister.

NO.. I see Reggie Bush getting more than a 150 carries which would mean Duece get less . This yr; they going to start working Bush as #1 by spliting the carries 50/50, IMO. So next yr, Bush is ready to take the loin share.Bush had 88 recs / you can't possibly see that has being a standard. Thats why I said 65+.. which means 65 is the low end.

I also do not see Reggie stealing away over forty carries from Duece McAllister when I know his role is more of a WR/RB hybrid and where I see a void created in the passing attack with the loss of Joe Horn and where Marques Colsten is supposed to fill in that huge void.

Really.. do you and Peyton have beers together too and discuss game plans .60 million is a lot money for a WR/RB hybrid.

It only makes sense that Bush will begin to steal Duece's carries. And to take away 40 of them would be a 3-4 carry increase per game for Bush which Im sure he can handle.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

... I see Reggie Bush getting more than a 150 carries which would mean Duece get less . This yr; they going to start working Bush as #1 by spliting the carries 50/50, IMO. So next yr, Bush is ready to take the loin share.

Bush had 88 recs / you can't possibly see that has being a standard. Thats why I said 65+.. which means 65 is the low end.

- Joe Horn is gone, not McAllister. - Bush was thee guy in the passing attack not Colsten.

- Duece was thee guy in the rushing attack, not Bush.

- Duece two years removed from his ACL.

Their is no reason why Bush's receiver role cannot increase from his NFL record setting rookie season.

Bush projections last year that had Reggie getting over 100 receptions were were close to the mark. He could easily surpass 100 receptions. Bush will not take over forty carries away from McAllister if Duece is healthy and Duece McAllister is healthy.

The sphere of influence geopolitical term applies to the Saint RB situation. Reggie is they guy in the passing game, Duece is thee guy in the running game. Reggie can operate on the fringe of Duece McAllister's rushing game but he's not going to move in and take over. Reggie is thee guy in the passing attack. He will get his receptions and also help fill the loss of receptions of Joe Horn.

Payton kept them both productive and happy last year and they both may increase their production within their sphere of influence this year; Reggie in the passing attack, Duece in the rushing attack.

PS EDIT also Duece McAllister signed a $100 million contract so it would be an awful lot to pay for a second string RB.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Bush:

7/29/2006: Signed a six-year, $52.5 million contract. The deal includes just over $26.3 million guaranteed and can be worth up to $62 million if Bush reaches all the incentives. 2007: $875,000 (+ $12.5 million option bonus), 2008: $1.55 million, 2009: $2.25 million, 2010: $2.9 million, 2011: $3.575 million, 2012: Free Agent

Duece:

7/29/2005: Signed an eight-year, $50.1 million contract extension through 2012. The deal includes $12.5 million in bonuses. 2007: $2.6 million (+ $1 million roster bonus + $100,000 workout bonus), 2008: $3.6 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2009: $5.2 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2010: $6.2 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus, 2011: $7.1 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2012: $8.1 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2013: Free Agent

In between 2008 and 2009; Duece's contract will increase by 144%. Thats a lot of money for a then 30 yr RB when you have a then 25 yr old 1st rounder / 2.25 million RB. I think by atleast 2009; Duece goes bye bye. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if they try to trade him away next yr while he still in his prime.

So it makes sense for Bush to begin getting adjusted to becoming the #1 / 50 extra carries is that much.

 

[Routilla]

I would love to get Bush and Brees. That's something I will be looking at in terms of logistics of our draft.

 

[Sidewinder]

Bush:

7/29/2006: Signed a six-year, $52.5 million contract. The deal includes just over $26.3 million guaranteed and can be worth up to $62 million if Bush reaches all the incentives. 2007: $875,000 (+ $12.5 million option bonus), 2008: $1.55 million, 2009: $2.25 million, 2010: $2.9 million, 2011: $3.575 million, 2012: Free Agent

Duece:

7/29/2005: Signed an eight-year, $50.1 million contract extension through 2012. The deal includes $12.5 million in bonuses. 2007: $2.6 million (+ $1 million roster bonus + $100,000 workout bonus), 2008: $3.6 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2009: $5.2 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2010: $6.2 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus, 2011: $7.1 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2012: $8.1 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2013: Free Agent

In between 2008 and 2009; Duece's contract will increase by 144%. Thats a lot of money for a then 30 yr RB when you have a then 25 yr old 1st rounder / 2.25 million RB. I think by atleast 2009; Duece goes bye bye. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if they try to trade him away next yr while he still in his prime.

So it makes sense for Bush to begin getting adjusted to becoming the #1 / 50 extra carries is that much.

With the projected cap increases over the next few years, those numbers for Deuce really aren't going to be that bad. But I believe this is a case that goes way beyond the numbers. Trust me on this -- McAllister is the heartbeat of this team. He is a huge fan favorite, is extremely involved in the community, and has multiple business interests in the Gulf south. Loomis and Payton lavish praise on the guy every chance they get. I would be floored if the Saints traded him before the end of his current contract.As far as the touches for 2007 go, barring injury, I simply don't see McAllister's role being reduced. He handles a 15 carry/game load well, and there is no reason for the team to give Bush 300 touches or more as long as Deuce is effective. Not to mention the fact that it worked well last year, with both players still relatively fresh late in the season.

ETA: I could see a flip-flop in total touches from last year, with Deuce getting 240 and Bush 275 in 2007, but I'd be very surprised to see anything greater than a 55-45 split (and most likely ending up very close to 50-50 in total touches).

 

[Routilla]

Bush:

7/29/2006: Signed a six-year, $52.5 million contract. The deal includes just over $26.3 million guaranteed and can be worth up to $62 million if Bush reaches all the incentives. 2007: $875,000 (+ $12.5 million option bonus), 2008: $1.55 million, 2009: $2.25 million, 2010: $2.9 million, 2011: $3.575 million, 2012: Free Agent

Duece:

7/29/2005: Signed an eight-year, $50.1 million contract extension through 2012. The deal includes $12.5 million in bonuses. 2007: $2.6 million (+ $1 million roster bonus + $100,000 workout bonus), 2008: $3.6 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2009: $5.2 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2010: $6.2 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus, 2011: $7.1 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2012: $8.1 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2013: Free Agent

In between 2008 and 2009; Duece's contract will increase by 144%. Thats a lot of money for a then 30 yr RB when you have a then 25 yr old 1st rounder / 2.25 million RB. I think by atleast 2009; Duece goes bye bye. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if they try to trade him away next yr while he still in his prime.

So it makes sense for Bush to begin getting adjusted to becoming the #1 / 50 extra carries is that much.

With the projected cap increases over the next few years, those numbers for Deuce really aren't going to be that bad. But I believe this is a case that goes way beyond the numbers. Trust me on this -- McAllister is the heartbeat of this team. He is a huge fan favorite, is extremely involved in the community, and has multiple business interests in the Gulf south. Loomis and Payton lavish praise on the guy every chance they get. I would be floored if the Saints traded him before the end of his current contract.As far as the touches for 2007 go, barring injury, I simply don't see McAllister's role being reduced. He handles a 15 carry/game load well, and there is no reason for the team to give Bush 300 touches or more as long as Deuce is effective. Not to mention the fact that it worked well last year, with both players still relatively fresh late in the season.

I agree. Bush will never be the sledgehammer that Deuce is and therefore will not approach 300+ touches. In that offense he would be less effective as the primary ball carrier. He is too valuable as a receiver out of the backfield. They have the perfect 2 RB punch right now. Defenses have a lot to gameplan for with both of them playing their respective roles.

 

[Pygmy Marmoset]

Bush:

7/29/2006: Signed a six-year, $52.5 million contract. The deal includes just over $26.3 million guaranteed and can be worth up to $62 million if Bush reaches all the incentives. 2007: $875,000 (+ $12.5 million option bonus), 2008: $1.55 million, 2009: $2.25 million, 2010: $2.9 million, 2011: $3.575 million, 2012: Free Agent

Duece:

7/29/2005: Signed an eight-year, $50.1 million contract extension through 2012. The deal includes $12.5 million in bonuses. 2007: $2.6 million (+ $1 million roster bonus + $100,000 workout bonus), 2008: $3.6 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2009: $5.2 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2010: $6.2 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus, 2011: $7.1 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2012: $8.1 million (+ $100,000 workout bonus), 2013: Free Agent

In between 2008 and 2009; Duece's contract will increase by 144%. Thats a lot of money for a then 30 yr RB when you have a then 25 yr old 1st rounder / 2.25 million RB. I think by atleast 2009; Duece goes bye bye. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if they try to trade him away next yr while he still in his prime.

So it makes sense for Bush to begin getting adjusted to becoming the #1 / 50 extra carries is that much.

With the projected cap increases over the next few years, those numbers for Deuce really aren't going to be that bad. But I believe this is a case that goes way beyond the numbers. Trust me on this -- McAllister is the heartbeat of this team. He is a huge fan favorite, is extremely involved in the community, and has multiple business interests in the Gulf south. Loomis and Payton lavish praise on the guy every chance they get. I would be floored if the Saints traded him before the end of his current contract.As far as the touches for 2007 go, barring injury, I simply don't see McAllister's role being reduced. He handles a 15 carry/game load well, and there is no reason for the team to give Bush 300 touches or more as long as Deuce is effective. Not to mention the fact that it worked well last year, with both players still relatively fresh late in the season.

I agree. Bush will never be the sledgehammer that Deuce is and therefore will not approach 300+ touches. In that offense he would be less effective as the primary ball carrier. He is too valuable as a receiver out of the backfield. They have the perfect 2 RB punch right now. Defenses have a lot to gameplan for with both of them playing their respective roles.

Plus, I could be wrong but looking at those numbers it appears that New Orleans is paying for Bush/McAllister about what AZ is paying for Edge/Shipp for the next couple of years, right? I have to think the Saints are happy with that.