NFL 100 All-Time Team (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

PFR recently came out with a HOF evaluation tool. LINK

I applaud their effort to come up with a formulaic HOF Monitor metric. I wish they laid out the formula, but I only found this description: Introducing the PFR HOF Monitor. But IMO it is too flawed to use as a proxy without delving into specifics on a case by case basis.

Most fundamentally, there are issues with Approximate Value, which is foundational to the HOF Monitor metric. Here is a series of articles about AV at PFR. From those articles:

1. Assumption #1: the offensive line is exactly as good as the offense. This is obviously flawed, and Doug Drinen, AV creator admits it.
   
2. Assumption #2: the offensive line is equally important in the running game as it is in the passing game. Drinen admitted this may be flawed, but he wasn't convinced of that.
   
3. Assumption #3: the ratio of pass-thrower importance to pass-catcher importance is constant from team to team. This is obviously flawed, and Drinen admitted this.
   
4. Team AV points is based on points per drive scored/allowed. Several issues:
   
   All Pro and Pro Bowl selections are already used for OL and defensive players to generate AV... but not for offensive skill players. So they are seemingly double counted for OL and defensive players in the HOF Monitor formula.
   
5. Points are mostly based on yards, ignoring receptions, TDs, first downs, sacks taken, and offensive turnovers. This results in situations like this one for the 2018 Chargers:
   
   Mike Williams - rushing: 7/28/1 with 2 first downs; receiving: 66 targets, 43/664/10 with 42 first downs; 0 fumbles = 6 AV
   
6. Tyrell Williams - rushing: 2/15/0 with 1 first down; receiving: 65 targets, 41/653/5 with 34 first downs; 2 fumbles = 6 AV
   

[*]Credit for efficiency is limited. For example, runners only get an adjustment (up or down) for YPC if they have 200+ carries in a season.


[*]Drinen basically admits that he doesn't know how to positionally divide up OL or defensive credit, which is not surprising since that is a complex problem. But his answer is to assign fixed positional values. So a tackle gets 20% more credit than a guard or center and 2/3 of defensive points go to the front 7 and 1/3 to the secondary. These choices are fine for generalizing positional value but could vary for individual situations.

[*]I can't find any evidence that AV accounts for postseason games.

I get that AV is an approximation tool, and that's fine. Just saying that it has flaws. That, in turn, means the HOF Monitor metric is flawed.

 

[Tau837]

Durability:
Gonzalez - missed two games in 17 seasons (WOW)
Gronk - missed 29 games in 9 seasons

Just to clarify, Gronk missed 29 regular season games in 9 seasons. He also missed 6 of 22 Pats playoff games. So he missed 35 of a possible 166 games (21%).

 

[Anarchy99]

Average score of a HOF WR = 99

WIDE RECEIVERS
Jerry Rice - 275.78 (1)
Randy Moss - 133.69 (4)
Lance Alworth - 111.31 (6)
Paul Warfield - 95.28 (13)
Elroy Hirsch - NA
Don Hutson - NA
Raymond Berry - 88.25 (19)
Larry Fitzgerald - 98.73 (11)
Steve Largent - 119.42 (5)
Marvin Harrison - 134.08 (3)

Honorable Mentions
Fred Biletnikoff - 65.00 (42)
Cris Carter - 110.92 (7)
Tom Fears - NA
Bob Hayes - 54.52 (55)
Michael Irvin - 88.55 (18)
Calvin Johnson - 86.27 (20)
Charlie Joiner - 74.81 (27)
Dante Lavelli - NA
James Lofton - 108.17 (9)
Don Maynard - 71.77 (32)
Terrell Owens - 147.40 (2)
Pete Pihos - NA
John Stallworth - 63.97 (43)
Charley Taylor - 96.33 (12)

Other HOF WR:
Terrell Owens - 147.30 (2)
Tim Brown - 98.97 (10)
Art Monk - 83.23 (22)
Andre Reed - 73.42 (29)
Lynn Swann - 70.88 (34)
Bobby Mitchell - 55.05 (54)
Bob Hayes - 54.52 (55)

Other WR:
Reggie Wayne - 94.73 (14)
Torry Holt - 94.64 (15)
Del Shofner - 92.18 (16)
Isaac Bruce - 90.14 (17)
Steve Smith - 85.36 (21)
Drew Pearson - 82.54 (23)
Andre Johnson - 81.53 (24)
Jimmy Smith - 75.66 (25)
Cliff Branch - 72.73 (30)
Antonio Brown - 67.72 (36)
Hines Ward - 66.69 (38)
Rod Smith - 66.27 (39)
Julio Jones - 65.86 (40)

 

[Anarchy99]

I get that AV is an approximation tool, and that's fine. Just saying that it has flaws. That, in turn, means the HOF Monitor metric is flawed.

News flash. All the discussion on just about everything is flawed. Comparing a single player's performance in a team game. Playing in different eras. Playing under different rules. Playing with different number of teams or games. One guy playing with better or weaker players or coaches. An offensive player on a team with poor defenses. All of it is flawed. All this is just another point for discussion.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Average score of a HOF WR = 99

WIDE RECEIVERS
Jerry Rice - 275.78 (1)
Randy Moss - 133.69 (4)
Lance Alworth - 111.31 (6)
Paul Warfield - 95.28 (13)
Elroy Hirsch - NA
Don Hutson - NA
Raymond Berry - 88.25 (19)
Larry Fitzgerald - 98.73 (11)
Steve Largent - 119.42 (5)
Marvin Harrison - 134.08 (3)

Honorable Mentions
Fred Biletnikoff - 65.00 (42)
Cris Carter - 110.92 (7)
Tom Fears - NA
Bob Hayes - 54.52 (55)
Michael Irvin - 88.55 (18)
Calvin Johnson - 86.27 (20)
Charlie Joiner - 74.81 (27)
Dante Lavelli - NA
James Lofton - 108.17 (9)
Don Maynard - 71.77 (32)
Terrell Owens - 147.40 (2)
Pete Pihos - NA
John Stallworth - 63.97 (43)
Charley Taylor - 96.33 (12)

Other HOF WR:
Terrell Owens - 147.30 (2)
Tim Brown - 98.97 (10)
Art Monk - 83.23 (22)
Andre Reed - 73.42 (29)
Lynn Swann - 70.88 (34)
Bobby Mitchell - 55.05 (54)
Bob Hayes - 54.52 (55)

Other WR:
Reggie Wayne - 94.73 (14)
Torry Holt - 94.64 (15)
Del Shofner - 92.18 (16)
Isaac Bruce - 90.14 (17)
Steve Smith - 85.36 (21)
Drew Pearson - 82.54 (23)
Andre Johnson - 81.53 (24)
Jimmy Smith - 75.66 (25)
Cliff Branch - 72.73 (30)
Antonio Brown - 67.72 (36)
Hines Ward - 66.69 (38)
Rod Smith - 66.27 (39)
Julio Jones - 65.86 (40)

 at Jerry Rice's lead over #2. Flawed system or not, just incredible.

 

[Anarchy99]

Average score of a HOF QB = 96

QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady - 208.73 (2)
Brett Favre - 168.48 (3)
Peyton Manning - 245.79 (1)
Joe Montana - 144,82 (5)
Sammy Baugh - NA
Otto Graham - NA
Johnny Unitas - 158.47 (4)
Roger Staubach - 90.33 (15)
John Elway - 130.04 (6)
Dan Marino - 109.83 (9)

Honorable Mentions
Troy Aikman - 63.68 (29)
Terry Bradshaw - 90.49 (14)
Drew Brees - 125.77 (7)
Dan Fouts - 84.64 (17)
Bobby Layne - NA
Sid Luckman - NA
Joe Namath - 52.50 (45)
Aaron Rodgers - 115.26 - (9)
Bart Starr - 101.20 (12)
Fran Tarkenton - 105.04 (11)
Norm Van Brocklin - NA
Steve Young - 116.48 (#8 )

Other HOF QB:
Sonny Jurgensen - 94.39 (13)
Kurt Warner - 85.78 (16)
Ken Stabler - 79.87 (21)
Warren Moon - 70.27 (24)
Bob Griese - 69.59 (25)
Len Dawson - 58.45 (37)
Jim Kelly - 54.10 (44)

Other QB:
Philip Rivers - 84.61 (18)
Ben Roethlisberger - 84.39 (19)
Matt Ryan - 83.54 (20)
Ken Anderson - 77.73 (22)
Eli Manning - 77.39 (23)
Boomer Esiason 66.48 (26)

 

[Tau837]

News flash. All the discussion on just about everything is flawed. Comparing a single player's performance in a team game. Playing in different eras. Playing under different rules. Playing with different number of teams or games. One guy playing with better or weaker players or coaches. An offensive player on a team with poor defenses. All of it is flawed. All this is just another point for discussion.

Discussion is not inherently flawed, since it can (and around here typically does) address most/all of the issues you just alluded to here. 

Attempting to distill HOF likelihood/worthiness into a single metric is quite a challenge, and this HOF Monitor metric is flawed. I simply pointed that out. As part of the discussion. 

 

[Henry Ford]

I know nobody wants to argue about a single player, but the talking heads are all discussing Brees right now so I’m going to as well. 
 

I just can’t get over how you decide not to put in the guy who owns every meaningful record for his position and has a ring - for which he was Super Bowl MVP.  If there’s a career personal achievement metric you can use, Brees owns the category.  Yards. TDs. Completion percentage (which he’s set the record in three times now.) 5,000 yard seasons. Yards in a season. Consecutive games with a TD pass. And all those records he holds, which Brady is chasing him on, he did them being drafted a year after Brady.

Same reason I’ll never understand how he never gets league MVP.  Drives me crazy. 

 

[Tau837]

I know nobody wants to argue about a single player, but the talking heads are all discussing Brees right now so I’m going to as well. 
 

I just can’t get over how you decide not to put in the guy who owns every meaningful record for his position and has a ring - for which he was Super Bowl MVP.  If there’s a career personal achievement metric you can use, Brees owns the category.  Yards. TDs. Completion percentage (which he’s set the record in three times now.) 5,000 yard seasons. Yards in a season. Consecutive games with a TD pass. And all those records he holds, which Brady is chasing him on, he did them being drafted a year after Brady.

Same reason I’ll never understand how he never gets league MVP.  Drives me crazy. 

If you had to rank Brady, Peyton, and Brees in terms of quality of their overall bodies of work, how would you rank them?

It seems clear to me that Brady and Peyton should be ranked higher, and it seems these voters agreed. It also seems clear they did not want to select more than 2 QBs for their final 10 from a single NFL generation. Unfortunately for Brees, they judged him to be #3 among his generation. And I think they are right about that.

 

[Henry Ford]

If you had to rank Brady, Peyton, and Brees in terms of quality of their overall bodies of work, how would you rank them?

It seems clear to me that Brady and Peyton should be ranked higher, and it seems these voters agreed. It also seems clear they did not want to select more than 2 QBs for their final 10 from a single NFL generation. Unfortunately for Brees, they judged him to be #3 among his generation. And I think they are right about that.

First, if it’s the all time team, generation shouldn’t matter.  Second, why is Peyton ranked higher? He used to be because of statistics. Brees took all of those. And beat him head to head in a Super Bowl. 
 

Brady has a sack full of rings, and I get everyone who votes him in over Brees.  I don’t always agree, but I get it. Manning? Not sure I do. In any event, Brees over Favre all day. 

 

[Tau837]

First, if it’s the all time team, generation shouldn’t matter.  Second, why is Peyton ranked higher? He used to be because of statistics. Brees took all of those. And beat him head to head in a Super Bowl. 
 

Brady has a sack full of rings, and I get everyone who votes him in over Brees.  I don’t always agree, but I get it. Manning? Not sure I do. In any event, Brees over Favre all day. 

Well, your first post asked how they could decide Brees is honorable mention. I explained it to you.  

You may not agree with the voters wanting to not over represent a single generation, but clearly the voters cared about that and purposefully incorporated that into their voting.  

As for Peyton vs. Brees, it’s easy. Peyton has 5 MVPs, 1 SBMVP, 2 OPOYs, 7 1st team All Pro selections, and 14 Pro Bowls. He led his teams to the playoffs 15 times in 17 seasons and won 2 Super Bowls. He also remains #1 all time in game winning drives and comeback wins. 

As great as Brees is and has been, his body of work does not compare favorably to that. 

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Not the be all and end all of QB stats, but interesting none the less.

https://www.footballdb.com/leaders/career-passing-tdintratio

 

[Henry Ford]

Well, your first post asked how they could decide Brees is honorable mention. I explained it to you.  

You may not agree with the voters wanting to not over represent a single generation, but clearly the voters cared about that and purposefully incorporated that into their voting.  

As for Peyton vs. Brees, it’s easy. Peyton has 5 MVPs, 1 SBMVP, 2 OPOYs, 7 1st team All Pro selections, and 14 Pro Bowls. He led his teams to the playoffs 15 times in 17 seasons and won 2 Super Bowls. He also remains #1 all time in game winning drives and comeback wins. 

As great as Brees is and has been, his body of work does not compare favorably to that. 

There’s a certain amount of tautology to that.  He doesn’t get MVP and therefore doesn’t get into the top 100, but why doesn’t he get MVP? 
He has 1 SBMVP, 2 OPOY, 1 First Team All Pro, led the league in passing yards 7 times, touchdowns 4 times, passer rating 2 times, completion percentage 5 times, completed a TD pass in 54 consecutive games, separately ended up #5 on that list in a different streak, and took every record Manning ever had. 
Manning is a great QB.  But the argument “he gets more recognition because he always gets more recognition” (MVP) doesn’t really do it for me. 
 

Regardless, what the hell of Favre doing there over him?

 

[Anarchy99]

Here are all the current / active players that made the list . . . Brady, Fitzgerald, and Vinatieri. That's it. They barely took any current players. Forget about Manning vs. Brees. It likely came down to Brady vs. Brees. How many people would take Brees over Brady?

 

[Tau837]

There’s a certain amount of tautology to that.  He doesn’t get MVP and therefore doesn’t get into the top 100, but why doesn’t he get MVP? 
He has 1 SBMVP, 2 OPOY, 1 First Team All Pro, led the league in passing yards 7 times, touchdowns 4 times, passer rating 2 times, completion percentage 5 times, completed a TD pass in 54 consecutive games, separately ended up #5 on that list in a different streak, and took every record Manning ever had. 
Manning is a great QB.  But the argument “he gets more recognition because he always gets more recognition” (MVP) doesn’t really do it for me. 
 

Regardless, what the hell of Favre doing there over him?

OK, it doesn't do it for you. You asked a question, and I gave you the answer. You are free not to like the answer. The subject of whether or not Brees should have won MVPs has been discussed and IMO debunked in other threads. The same logic applies to 1st team All Pro selections. Others have always been at least just slightly better. And that is what happened in this top 100 list. Others of his generation - Brady and Peyton - were at least just slightly better.

Being recognized with honors/awards is a form of accomplishment, and Brees can't touch Peyton on that. That's no slight to Brees, Peyton is viewed by most as being one of the top few QBs of all time. To be just below that is not a negative. I also provided other facts that you ignored.

Favre is one of the all time greats, hands down. He won 3 straight MVP awards. His peak was stronger than Brees, and he had just as much longevity at a very high level of play. And he wasn't in the same generation as Brady, Peyton, and Brees.

 

[Anarchy99]

No one is disputing that Brees hasn't posted some video game numbers. Fair or unfair, QB's get evaluated on the record of their teams and if they won SB's. Brees has had a losing record as a starter in 7 seasons. Brady has 0 losing seasons. Peyton had 2 early in his career. I agree that shouldn't be the case, but that's the reality of the world we live in.

Having great totals doesn't always amount to much. Yes, Brees has had five seasons with 5,000 passing yards. The Saints did not win a SB in any of them, and three of those years the Saints weren't that great (years with 7, 7, and 8 victories). Brees may have been great but the teams may not have been (or didn't come out on top).

It still doesn't change that for the NFL 100 list, they were not going to take more than one active player at each position.

 

[Talking Bird]

I agreed with almost everyone on these list.  I was glad they put Dutch Clark on here.  A lot of people overlook him.  Red Grange said he was the hardest guy in football to tackle.  Bronco Nagurski said his change of pace could fool the best of tacklers.  I seen his 1935 Championship run and yes he is great.   He started around the 40 yd line in the middle of the field and ran up the gut and stopped and juked to make 4-5 guys miss him then spun around a guy to avoid another one and went all the way to the left of the field then went back all the way to the right of the field thru all the traffic then went forward to about the 5 yard line and juked again to make 4 more miss him and drove it in for the td.  In short what Potsy Clark said of him is true.  He is like a rabbit that gets in and out of holes.  However, he always was a qb.  In college he had a game for 381 yds rushing on 20 carries and threw for 200 yds on 8 attempts.  That same year he had 1349 yds rushing on only 135 carries.  So i understand why they viewed him as a rb but I would list the positions by decade rather than a 100 man roster because there has been so many rules changed over years and how players are used.    So, for qbs i would put 20s-Benny Friedman, 30s-Dutch Clark, 40s- Sammy Baugh and Sid Luckman, 50s-Bobby Layne and Otto Graham, 60s-Johnny Unitas and Bart starr, 70s-fran tarkentan and roger staubach, 80s-joe montana and dan Marino, 90s-john elway and brett favre, 00s-today-peyton manning, tom brady and drew brees.   I also would do this for all positions.  I understand why they did what they did too.  Great job by the committee.  Thank you. 

 

[doowain]

Faulk, Tomlinson, Gates, Brees being left off the list seems ridiculous.