NFL Statistics question (1 Viewer)

[Drifter]

Has anyone seen a statistic for how many points (actual points scored in a game), a turnover is equivalent to on average?

To clarify, the data would be derived from X = TOpts/#TO

Where

TOpts = # of pts scored on the drive immediately following a turnover or as a result of the turnover itself

#TO = The number of turnovers committed

I would prefer a data set consisting of a season or the last several seasons.

Anybody every seen anything like this?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I think it's more a question of where the turnover occured, what the current score is and how much time is left. You'd just need to look at expected points based on your current field position vs expected points based on the field position of your opponent after the turnover to calculate how much that particular turnover was worth. Throwing an INT from your 30 yard line that puts the opponent at their own 30 yard line costs you nothing with enough time left on the clock in a close game. Fumbling at your opponent's 1 will probably result in a swing of about 3-4 points.

To clarify, with the ball at your opponent's 1, it's likely the next score comes from you the expect result is in the 6.5+ point range. Your opponent having the ball at their own 1, it's still likely the next score comes from you, but you'd only expect to score ~3 points as a result of many trials.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

As it turns out, FO touched on this with an article in 2003.

link

 

[Drifter]

Thanks, KRS! I would have put it much lower than that based purely on conjecture.

For those not reading the article, they argue that a TO is equal to 4 pts (-4 actually).

 

[Bottomfeeder Sports]

Thanks, KRS! I would have put it much lower than that based purely on conjecture.For those not reading the article, they argue that a TO is equal to 4 pts (-4 actually).

Considering that a turnover is worth between 40 and 50 yards and every 12 yards equals a point that seems about right.(All of the numbers comes from the late '80's publication The Hidden Game of Pro Football.)Edit- Should have read the article first. "In Hidden Game of Football, Pete Palmer and Bob Carroll propose the theory that this seemingly common sense belief is wrong. According to them, a turnover is always worth -4 points"