NFL Should Rethink INTs (1 Viewer)

[CletiusMaximus]

If you want to make interceptions a subjective statistic based on fault and credit where credit is due, why not completions, yards (passing, rushing and receiving), scoring, penalties, tackles, fumbles and ultimately, final score of the game?

 

[tricky92]

Life isn’t fair. Sports aren’t always fair. Stats aren’t always fair. You just have to take the good along with the bad and accept it. Trying to rethink int’s would make the process insanely difficult. How about if the ball hits a WR’s hands—but the ball was thrown far too hard? How about the horrid throws that qb’s make where the defender drops an easy int? Should those be counted up to show how well or poorly a qb is playing? QB’s tend to get too much credit for when things go right—and because of this—they are sometimes subject to getting a little too much blame for mistakes that might not be completely their fault. The system isn’t perfect—but I think that it’s far better than making each interception into an individual investigation to establish who was really at fault.

This isn’t about being “fair,” it’s about being accurate.

It is accurate to say that the QB threw the interception.

Not really. An interception is caught, not thrown. You can’t throw a catch.

A thrown ball is caught... a touchdown is caught... and a touchdown is also thrown... an interception is caught... and an interception is also thrown.

 

[tricky92]

Should receivers get yardage credit when they cause pass interference plays?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Should receivers get yardage credit when they cause pass interference plays?

Regardless of whether your answer to this is yes or no, it presents the same situation as in the OP: the statistician's job is just to record what happened. "Player A incomplete pass intended for Player B; Penalty on Player C for pass interference." What others choose to do with that information is practically limitless, but goes beyond the statistician's purview. Anyone can easily derive some new metric like "PI-adjusted receiving yards" (wouldn't surprise me if this already exists somewhere, just like adjusted QB interception metrics already exist.)

 

[tricky92]

Should receivers get yardage credit when they cause pass interference plays?

Regardless of whether your answer to this is yes or no, it presents the same situation as in the OP: the statistician's job is just to record what happened. "Player A incomplete pass intended for Player B; Penalty on Player C for pass interference." What others choose to do with that information is practically limitless, but goes beyond the statistician's purview. Anyone can easily derive some new metric like "PI-adjusted receiving yards" (wouldn't surprise me if this already exists somewhere, just like adjusted QB interception metrics already exist.)

Yeah, I was just throwing some goofy ish out there

 

[-OZ-]

This is such a weird hill to plant a flag on

TBF, Tyreek is weirder.

 

[Mitchie]

QB throws a fine pass, the receiver slips, runs the wrong route, or the ball deflects off the receiver’s hands into those of a defender, and it’s always recorded as an INT on the QB. Why?

Because no one cares enough to add more complexity to the process. Maybe the growing influence of sports betting will change that eventually.

i doubt it, why add judgement to a process when don't have to, I mean luck plays a big role in gambling that's just the way it is.

I agree and don't think it will change any time soon, I'm just pointing out that the reason they record INTs the way they do is that no one really cares enough for it to be done differently. The only thing I could see changing that is the exploding popularity of player prop betting.

understood your post, just think there's a snowball chance in hell of this being changed for sports gambling so that someone is subjectively ruling what an interception is

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

Hurts’ pick-6 yesterday

What do you mean Hurts' pick-6? Hurts cannot have a pick-6, that is only something a defender can do. Or perhaps a lottery retailer.

QB throws a fine pass

What do you mean by this? A QB cannot throw a pass. A QB can only throw a ball.

it makes no sense to pin those on the QB.

I don't understand what you're talking about, I didn't see anyone pin anything onto Hurts last night. Surely he'd have objected strongly to having his skin pierced by a thin piece of metal.

this isn’t just a case of sour grapes

What does a box of fruit have to do with any of this? Everything is very confusing to me.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Your baseball correlation is perfect. If a shortstop makes a perfect throw to the first baseman who lets the ball tip off his glove, the error is on the first baseman, not the shortstop. Why charge the QB for an “error” made by the receiver?

There’s plenty of grey area in a baseball situation too. Was it a bad throw, a tough catch? Sometimes it’s obvious, other times not., but MLB doesn’t just shrug and say every error is on the guy who threw the ball.

Baseball's system is worse IMO.

Say a batter hits a flyball to the gap. The CF is blazing fast, runs under it and drops it, batter goes to 2nd. Error. But if the CF was slower, couldn't get to it, and the batter got to 2nd, it would've been a double. Same exact batted ball, same end result, yet scored totally differently. I don't think this is what the NFL should be aspiring to.

 

[Gally]

What if a player scores a run is there no rbi given?

If the error was with two outs then no RBI. If it is with less than two outs then it is an RBI. Basically the batter wouldn't have gotten and RBI if the fielder made the play with two outs because it would have resulted in a 3rd out. However the exact same play with one out would still have resulted in the run scoring just as it would have if the fielder through the batter out at first. Therefore the batter gets the RBI in that case.

 

[GPS]

I just don't see any reason for the NFL to open up that huge can of worms by introducing a subjective element to those stats. Everyone would agree that pick-six wasn't Jalen's fault, but that's football, all these plays have team elements, in that case his teammate failed him. If you're gonna litigate INTs, then that opens up almost everything to similar litigation. A huge headache and for what? Stats should reflect what happened on the field, I like it how it is.

Like an RB would have had 200 yards if the line would have held up their end?

 

[Stoneworker]

If only Yahoo gave 2 points to the ref who caused Lamar's safety instead of the 49ers D/ST I would have won my playoff game by 1 point instead of losing it

 

[ghostguy123]

No, this sounds like a horrible idea

If you’re going to bother replying to a thread like this, why not include some insight that adds to the discussion? Why is it a horrible idea?

It's too silly of an idea to bother, honestly

 

[ghostguy123]

Then what about the scenario where a QB throws an awful pass that goes right through the hands of a defender and into the WR hands? Should that be counted as an int? Slippery slope.

That would simply be a completed pass. Why might that be recorded as an INT?

Ummm, exactly.

 

[renesauz]

Life isn’t fair. Sports aren’t always fair. Stats aren’t always fair. You just have to take the good along with the bad and accept it. Trying to rethink int’s would make the process insanely difficult. How about if the ball hits a WR’s hands—but the ball was thrown far too hard? How about the horrid throws that qb’s make where the defender drops an easy int? Should those be counted up to show how well or poorly a qb is playing? QB’s tend to get too much credit for when things go right—and because of this—they are sometimes subject to getting a little too much blame for mistakes that might not be completely their fault. The system isn’t perfect—but I think that it’s far better than making each interception into an individual investigation to establish who was really at fault.

The OP was about blatantly obvious situations. Grey area situations could be treated as they always have been.

If there's one thing I've learned talking in game threads here on live football games...it's surprising how often someone sees something completely opposite even when you or I see it as obvious. Hurts has actually had a number of picks this year that were of fluky nature, including one that cost them the game against the Jets....but most QBs have a few that are this way. It's nothing new, and would be almost impossible to parce out in anything remotely resembling consistency

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think this would be a silly thing for the league to even consider, but there is precedent for it. In baseball, they take the time to charge an error to the person who messed up, not the person who ended up with the ball or the pitcher or whomever. When there's a fumble on a handoff, they determine who gets charged with it. So they could charge an "error" of sorts to the guy who let the ball bounce off his hands.

I don’t believe the bolded is accurate. Fumbled exchanges are always assigned to the QB —or more accurately, the person who gets the snap. In the KC-LV game, there was a direct snap to Pacheco, who was supposed to immediately hand it off to Mahomes. They fumbled the exchange and the Raiders returned it for a TD. It was recorded as a fumble by Pacheco

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

If only Yahoo gave 2 points to the ref who caused Lamar's safety instead of the 49ers D/ST I would have won my playoff game by 1 point instead of losing it

Speak for yourself. In my refs-only fantasy league, I moved on to the finals by less than a point on the strength of that guy’s performance

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Then what about the scenario where a QB throws an awful pass that goes right through the hands of a defender and into the WR hands? Should that be counted as an int? Slippery slope.

That would simply be a completed pass. Why might that be recorded as an INT?

If the premise is that qb’s are not penalized statistically for interceptions that are not their fault—how about when they throw a garbage pass where the receiver has to make a super human effort to catch? They get credit for crappy thrown balls that make wr’s make exceptional plays or put their bodies at risk. It’s part of a qb’s job to be on the same page as his receivers. A quarterback understands this.

 

[Snoopy]

ESPN's proprietary quarterback rating system uses subjective criteria such as not penalizing interceptions if they deem it was not his fault.

 

[MAC_32]

So we're suggesting we ask the organization that can't define what a catch is to apply the same level of success they've demonstrated doing that to interceptions.

 

[fightingillini]

Hurts’ pick-6 yesterday was the result of Goedert slipping. Had he not stumbled, it would not have been intercepted. Yet it will show up on stats and be discussed as “another turnover by Jalen Hurts,” even though he wasn’t to blame. I mean, it’s possible it could’ve still been intercepted if Goedert hadn’t slipped, but highly unlikely imo. Regardless, this isn’t about that one play in particular, but INTs in general.

It happens every week, almost every game. QB throws a fine pass, the receiver slips, runs the wrong route, or the ball deflects off the receiver’s hands into those of a defender, and it’s always recorded as an INT on the QB. Why?

I don’t understand why the NFL can’t judge and record INTs based on who is to blame. Running the wrong route would be difficult to determine, but If a perfectly thrown pass deflects off a WR’s hands for an INT, they fall down and it gets picked, etc, that should be on the WR/RB, not the QB. Call it an INT, turnover, or whatever, but it makes no sense to pin those on the QB.

In most cases, these instances are blatantly obvious, so there shouldn’t be any more “grey area” issues than fumbled handoff exchanges which are judged similarly.

BTW, I won despite Hurts’ pick-6, so this isn’t just a case of sour grapes. That said, had I lost because of it, this would bug me even more, of course. It just seems nonsensical to pin turnovers on QBs when the receiver is to blame. Why not pin it on the receiver?

I don't get this at all. An interception is a pass that is thrown that the opposing team catches. Doesn't matter how it happened. Tipped ball, WR slips, TE runs the wrong route, defender hits the QB while passing, QB throws a crap pass......doesn't really matter. Are you going to not penalize a RB for losing 3 yards on a rush when the OL screws up and lets a defender into the backfield? This would be a slippery slope. How do you know for sure if the receiver ran the wrong route or the QB threw a bad pass, or the QB made the wrong read? Good luck with that.

Get used to it. Interceptions are an undisputable stat. The QB threw the ball, they get the deduction. Period.

 

[kinghill]

OP's concern is very well taken.

The answer is not to change how an INT is classified. An INT is an INT and must remain as-is.

The answer is to create a new statistical metric, if it doesn't already exist, to capture the information.

 

[Mookie Gizzy]

How about a QB who throws a 2 yard screen to the RB, who jukes one guy, breaks one tackle and goes 90 yards for a TD?

 

[Joe Bryant]

Can't you also use the same logic to argue that not all passing yards are created equal? If a qb dumps it off for 4 air yards behind the LOS and the RB takes It 83 yards for a TD, is that the same quality of a pass as if the QB hits the WR 55 yards down the field in double coverage for a score?

That's the trouble. I fully agree interceptions are unfairly attributed. But the question becomes where does it stop? Touchdowns are unfairly attributed as well. Does a QB get a TD when the defender falls down? When the WR makes an incredible play? It becomes a tangle.

 

[Joe Bryant]

OP's concern is very well taken.

The answer is not to change how an INT is classified. An INT is an INT and must remain as-is.

The answer is to create a new statistical metric, if it doesn't already exist, to capture the information.

That's likely the answer. It also solves the problem of changing all the prior stats from NFL history.

 

[Joe Bryant]

It would require an official scorer for every game like baseball does with hits. That's easily doable for the league.