The St. Louis Cardinals decided to conduct a second base experiment for the second times in the last 5 years. The original move was using OF Skip Schumaker (a shortstop in college) at second base. Schumaker did decent at the position, and it got his bat into the everyday line up as the team lead off hitter.
When he defense didn’t progress, and his he didn’t prove to be the perfect option at leading off, the team went with Dan Descalso.
Fast forward to this season and the Cardinals attempted this again, but with corner infielder Matt Carpenter. And Carpenter has thrived this year, with decent defense, setting the table for the offense, and even becoming an unlikely All Star. Carpenter’s been a true star for the Redbirds, and completely over-shadowed. Let’s see if he had a chance in the MVP race.
Carpenter currently ranks second in WAR, according to
Fangraphs, behind Andrew McCutchen. The remaining 8 are Carlos Gomez, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Yadier Molina, Troy Tulowitzki, Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo, and Ian Desmond.
I took these 10 players and looked at a handful of stats to see where Carpenter ranked.
The top 3 players in home runs are Goldschmidt (34), Pence (25), and Tulowitzki (22).
The top 3 in runs are Carpenter (119), Shoo (105), Votto (97) and Goldschmidt (97).
The top 3 in RBIs are Goldschmidt (118), Pence (93), and McCutchen (81).
The top 3 in stolen bases are Gomez (36), McCutchen (27), and Pence (21).
The top 3 in BB% are Votto (18.00%), Choo (16.00%), and Goldschmidt (14.50%).
The top 3 in K% are Molina (9.50%), Carpenter (13.60%), and McCutchen (15.20%).
The top 3 in ISO are Goldschmidt (0.251), Tulowitzki (0.221), and Pence (0.202).
The top 3 in BABIP are Carpenter (0.366), McCutchen (0.364), and Votto (0.363).
The top 3 in average are McCutchen (0.327), Carpenter (0.324), and Molina (0.319).
The top 3 in OPB are Votto (0.433), Choo (0.426), and McCutchen (0.408).
The top 3 in slugging are Goldschmidt (0.556), Tulowitzki (0.536), McCutchen (0.523).
The top 3 in wOPA are Goldschmidt (0.408), Votto (0.400), and McCutchen (0.399).
The top 3 in wRC+ are McCutchen (160), Goldschmidt (158), and Votto (156).
The top 3 in baserunning are Pence (5.7), Gomez (5.5), and McCutchen (5.1).
The top 3 in offensive runs are McCutchen (47.7), Goldschmidt (44.9), and Votto (44.1).
The top 3 in defensive runs are Gomez (22.7), Molina (17.1), and Tulowitzki (13.8).
The top 3 in WAR are McCutchen(8.0), Carpenter (6.7), Gomez (6.7), and Goldschmidt (6.2).
There are 17 stats and 53 names (2 ties). I weighed the rankings for the top 3 and created scores for each player to determine the the best order for the NL MVP. The highest score possible would be an 8.5. Here are the rankings:
1. Paul Goldschmidt – 3.67 (5 first, 2 second, 3 third)
2. Andrew McCutchen – 3.67 (4 first, 2 second, 6 third)
3. Matt Carpenter – 2.00 (2 first, 3 second, 0 third)
4. Joey Votto – 2.00 (2 first, 1 second, 4 third)
5. Carlos Gomez – 1.67 (2 first, 2 second, 0 third)
6. Hunter Pence – 1.50 (1 first, 2 second, 2 third)
7. Yadier Molina – 1.00 (1 first, 1 second, 1 third)
8. Shin-Soo Choo – 1.00 (0 first, 3 second, 0 third)
9. Troy Tulowitzki – 1.00 (0 first, 2 second, 2 third)
10. Ian Desmond – 0.00 (0 first, 0 second, 0 third)
The ties went to the highest number of votes for each ranking (Goldschmidt was first in 5 stats, while McCutchen was 4th).
I don’t think the final votes goes this way though due to the thinking that MVPs should come from playoff teams. I think McCutchen will be the winner. I also think Carpenter isn’t in the top 3 due to the fact that Molina, Matt Holliday, and Carlos Beltran have helped the Cardinals when a player like McCutchen or Goldschmidt hasn’t had the same support.
